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Tarik Skubal

Tigers Notes: Skubal, Manning, Turnbull, Carpenter

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Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press discusses a litany of Tigers injury updates yesterday evening, with news regarding left-hander Tarik Skubal chief among them.

Skubal, 26, underwent surgery on his flexor tendon back in August, but is making steady progress on his rehab. About a month after throwing off a mound for the first time since the surgery, Skubal has taken the next step and begun to face live hitters. Petzold notes that Skubal threw 20-25 pitches and faced Andy Ibanez, Jonathan Schoop, and Nick Maton in the live session. Schoop noted to Petzold that Skubal’s fastball was touching 98, a phenomenal sign for the young left-hander’s progress.

A ninth-round pick by the Tigers in the 2018 draft, Skubal quickly ascended prospect rankings, becoming a consensus top-25 prospect in the game ahead of the 2021 season after making a brief MLB debut during the shortened 2020 season. In 2021, Skubal was given the keys to a spot in the starting rotation, and the results were decent but uninspiring. Skubal posted a roughly league average 4.34 ERA in 149 1/3 innings, but a 5.09 FIP indicates that performance may not have been entirely earned. Skubal’s 25.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate were both solid marks, but his overall production was hampered considerably by a massive 20.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.

Fortunately, Skubal managed to turn a corner in 2022. The young lefty was a revelation with the Tigers last season, a rare bright spot in an otherwise dismal season in Detroit. Skubal posted a solid 3.52 ERA, 10% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and paired that with an excellent 2.96 FIP as he maintained his quality strikeout and walk numbers from the previous season while managing to drastically reduce the quality of contact he was allowing. In 2021, Skubal’s 13.9% barrel rate was the worst figure in baseball (min. 140 IP). That figure dropped all the way to 5.5% in 2022, however, good for the 78th percentile in the league, per Statcast. Skubal’s 2022 breakout campaign was, of course, cut short by the aforementioned surgery in August, which limited him to just 117 2/3 innings.

Looking ahead, Skubal figures to provide a huge boost to the Detroit rotation both this season and for the foreseeable future upon his return, assuming he’s able to maintain his 2022 breakout when he returns to the mound. No concrete details on Skubal’s timeline for return are available, though he seems to be ahead of right-hander Matt Manning, who Petzold notes threw off a mound Tuesday for the first time since suffering a fractured foot last month. While Manning initially hoped that he would be able to return to action after six weeks, that timeline was quickly taken off the table when the righty was transferred to the 60-day IL at the end of April. Manning will throw a second bullpen session today but, per Petzold, remains limited to an anti-gravity treadmill for his current running program.

All this suggests the club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft is still a while away from a return to game action. In 12 starts last season, Manning impressed with a 3.43 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 63 innings of work that earned him a rotation spot on Opening Day this season. In two starts prior to his injury this season, however, Manning struggled badly, allowing a whopping four home runs in just 11 2/3 innings of work. Still, the talented youngster figures to be of great importance to the Tigers going forward, once he’s returned to full health.

Elsewhere among the club’s rotation options, right-hander Spencer Turnbull remains shut down after being placed on the injured list with neck discomfort earlier this month, though a recent MRI revealed the healing process is progressing well so far. Petzold notes that the current plan regarding Turnbull, who struggled to a 7.26 ERA in 31 innings of work this season prior to his placement on the IL, is for the 30-year-old righty to undergo an additional MRI in two weeks. If Turnbull’s neck ailment has cleared up, he’ll likely begin a throwing program at that point. Turnbull, of course, missed most of the 2021 campaign and all of 2022 while undergoing and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Rounding out the injury updates is outfielder Kerry Carpenter, who landed on the IL with a shoulder strain last month, began a rehab assignment in Triple-A yesterday. Carpenter impressed with the club in his major league debut down the stretch last season, and his quality performance largely carried over to 2023 prior to his injury. While the 25-year-old Carpenter still has just 188 big league plate appearances under his belt in his career, his slash line of .238/.298/.477 with ten home runs and nine doubles leaves plenty of optimism that Carpenter can contribute to a scuffling Tigers offense upon his return to the big league club.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Mahle, Skubal

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The White Sox are set to get some much needed reinforcements early this week, as manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that both shortstop Tim Anderson and infielder Hanser Alberto are expected to return from the injured list on Tuesday.

That’s great news for the club, as the White Sox have begun their 2023 campaign with a worrisome 7-21 record that places them tied for last in the AL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Twins. A two time All Star who won the batting title in 2019, Anderson is one of the club’s marquee players. From 2019 to 2021 Anderson posted 11.6 fWAR in 295 games, a pace of nearly 6.4 fWAR per 162 games, thanks to solid defense at shortstop paired with a .322/.349/.495 slash line that was good for a 126 wRC+. That being said, Anderson missed three months of action in 2022 due to multiple injuries and didn’t reach those same standards when on the field, posting just a 110 wRC+ in 79 games along with a .093 ISO that was far below the .173 he managed during his peak years.

Even after a relative down season last year, however, Anderson figures to be one of the club’s best players this season, and any hope of a turnaround for the White Sox after this brutal start to the 2023 campaign likely rests in large part on his shoulders. In coming off the IL, he’ll be joined by Alberto, who figures to join Chicago’s bench mix alongside Romy Gonzalez, Lenyn Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Haseley. Despite a career wRC+ of just 77, Alberto is in his eighth year in the majors thanks to his versatility, which has allowed him to play all over the diamond except for behind the plate and in center field, and his penchant for avoiding strikeouts, as the 30-year-old veteran has punched out in just 12.2% of his 1,406 plate appearances in his career to this point.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI on his arm after he was diagnosed with an elbow impingement earlier this week. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, that the team will have more details soon but that Mahle is expected to miss his next start at the very least. It’s not currently known if an injured list stint will be necessary for Mahle, who has a 3.16 ERA in five starts so far in 2023. The Twins have a variety of options for a spot start on the 40-man roster if necessary, including Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Brent Headrick.
  • Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.

Injury Notes: Skubal, Hendricks, Suarez, Lynch

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The Tigers have been without left-hander Tarik Skubal since he underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his forearm last August. Detroit hasn’t provided a specific recovery timeline for the 26-year-old hurler, though he’s out until at least late May after starting the year on the 60-day injured list. Skubal is soon to hit a notable marker in his rehab process, as he’s in line to throw his first post-surgery bullpen session this week (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press).

Skubal will certainly need multiple ’pen sessions and likely some live batting practice work before he’s ready to step into game action. Petzold notes the club is still without a firm timetable on when he might embark on a minor league rehab stint. That he’s throwing is obviously a plus and provides some hope he could return when or not long after he’s first eligible. Skubal developed into perhaps Detroit’s best pitcher before the injury, working to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout percentage through 21 starts last year.

Some updates on other injured pitchers around the league:

  • Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa on Thursday, tweets Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The right-hander is still working back from a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder suffered last August. He’s been throwing for the better part of six weeks but the club has understandably taken a cautious approach to building him up. Hendricks will require multiple rehab starts, with Levine suggesting the hope is he can return to the Wrigley Field mound in the middle of May. The 33-year-old worked to a career-worst 4.80 ERA over 84 1/3 innings last season. He’s headed into the final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Cubs deciding on a net $14.5MM decision for 2024 ($16MM option, $1.5MM buyout) at year’s end.
  • The Phillies are also sending one of their starters on a rehab stint this week. Left-hander Ranger Suárez will pitch two innings with Double-A Reading on Thursday, relays Matt Gelb of the Athletic. According to Gelb, he’s expected to make three or four minor league appearances before making his MLB season debut in the middle of May. The southpaw was slowed by a bout of forearm inflammation in Spring Training, part of a tough exhibition season from a health perspective for Philadelphia. He threw a personal-high 155 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA and an excellent 55.4% ground-ball percentage in 29 starts last year.
  • Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch threw a bullpen session this afternoon, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He’s expected to log three innings in an extended Spring Training game on Thursday before beginning a rehab stint. That could position Lynch for his season debut in mid-May after a strain in his throwing shoulder shut him down at the end of Spring Training. One of the expected key starters for K.C. coming out of their rebuild, Lynch has had up-and-down results in his first two big league campaigns. He allowed a 5.13 ERA across 131 2/3 innings last season. With Kris Bubic lost for the season and Brady Singer struggling in the early going, a step forward from the 26-year-old Lynch takes on all the more importance for the Royals in the long term.

Pitching Notes: Red Sox, Kahnle, Lorenzen

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The Red Sox are on the verge of a boost to their rotation, with starters Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock set to return. Whitlock will be the first, with Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reporting that Whitlock will pitch Tuesday against the Rays.

Whitlock has been taking a little extra time to prepare for the season following hip surgery in September. While he’s excelled mostly as a reliever for Boston, the team came into the year planning to use him as a starter and it appears they’re not deviating from that. Whitlock owns a 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 relief innings, and a 4.15 ERA in nine starts and 39 innings over his two big league seasons.

It’s unclear yet who will drop out of the rotation, although Kutter Crawford’s spot would appear most at risk. Boston doesn’t get a day off until April 27, so the boost to their struggling rotation is timely. Whitlock’s return could be closely followed by that of Bello. The youngster is scheduled to make another rehab start on Tuesday, with the hope being he’ll go for six innings. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes, manager Alex Cora wouldn’t commit to him coming of the IL after that, but if he goes that sort of length without any issues then a return can’t be far away.

Bello, 23, worked to a 4.71 ERA over 57 1/3 innings last year. It was a promising rookie season for Bello, and underlying numbers such as FIP (2.94) looked a lot more favorably on his work. Bello had been dealing with forearm tightness during spring training, forcing his delayed start to the season. Like Whitlock, he figures to be a key part of any success Boston’s rotation might have this year.

Here’s some more from around the game:

  • Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle was transferred to the 60-day IL today, meaning the earliest he’ll return will be the end of May. That’s a significant blow for a banged up Yankees bullpen that also lost Jonathan Loaisiga to the IL today. Per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, manager Aaron Boone did not consider Kahnle to have suffered a setback as a reason for the move to the 60-day, but instead that they just anticipated he’d have a longer buildup. Boone added that he could see Kahnle appearing in minor league rehab games in early May. Kahnle re-joined the Yankees this winter on a two-year, $11.5MM deal.
  • The Tiger announced (Twitter) a series of medical updates, including that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to make a rehab start Triple-A today. Lorenzen did indeed make that start, going 2 1/3 innings (56 pitches) and giving up four earned runs. Lorenzen is returning from a left groin strain. The team also announced that right-hander Beau Brieske continues to receive further medical evaluation on his right upper arm discomfort. Meanwhile, starter Casey Mize is playing catch three times a week and Tarik Skubal is playing catch six times weekly.

Tigers Claim Freddy Pacheco, Place Tarik Skubal On 60-Day IL

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The Tigers announced that they have claimed right-hander Freddy Pacheco off waivers from the Cardinals. To make room for him on their roster, left-hander Tarik Skubal has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

Pacheco, 25 next month, is a relief pitcher who was added to the Cards’ roster in November of 2021 to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He earned that spot based on a strong campaign that saw him rise through three levels, going from Class-A Advanced to Double-A and Triple-A. He posted a 3.67 ERA that year in 54 innings, striking out an incredible 44% of batters faced but walking a concerning 13.4%.  Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 62 innings with a 3.05 ERA. His strikeout rate fell to 33.6% but he also got his walks down to 11.2%.

Those are fairly strong results but Pacheco’s near-term status is up in the air at the moment. A couple of weeks ago, the team informed reports that Pacheco had some tightness around his elbow, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat among those to relay the update. The club did some imaging but didn’t find anything concerning, deciding to simply shut him down for a few weeks and then try to ramp him back up again.

There had not been any previous indication that Pacheco had been placed on waivers but the Cardinals evidently tried to pass him through recently, though the Tigers have swooped in to grab him. The latter club has seen a lot of bullpen turnover in the past year, as they traded away Michael Fulmer at last year’s deadline and then Gregory Soto and Joe Jiménez this offseason. Pacheco still has a couple of option years, meaning they can shuttle him between the majors and minors as a depth arm, as long as he’s healthy.

They were able to give Pacheco a roster spot due to Skubal’s health status. He had flexor tendon surgery in August and is still working his way back to health. The timeline on his return still isn’t clear but this IL placement means he can’t return until late May at the earliest, since the 60-day clock doesn’t start until Opening Day.

For the Cards, they now have an open roster spot that they could potentially use to add a non-roster invitee to their club. There’s a lot of hype around prospect Jordan Walker making the Opening Day roster, though nothing official has been announced. There’s now just over two weeks to the March 30 season opener.

Tarik Skubal Discusses Surgery Rehab

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Left-hander Tarik Skubal had a nice breakout season in 2021, tossing 149 1/3 innings that year with a 4.34 ERA. He seemed to take a step forward in 2022, getting his ERA down to 3.52 through 21 starts. Unfortunately, he required flexor tendon surgery in August, wiping out the rest of that season and likely some portion of his 2023 as well. With Spring Training just around the corner, Skubal has begun throwing from flat ground and discussed his rehab progress with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News.

“Everything has gone really well,” Skubal said. “The arm is responding well. I can’t complain about anything. I like where I’m at.” Though he seems encouraged by the progress, it seems he doesn’t want to set a specific target for his return. “I hate to put a date on it,” he said. “I’m going to be focusing on my day-to-day progress. I’m not going to set a date and then, if I’m not back by that date, be discouraged.” But if someone were to say he won’t return at all this year? “I’d call them a liar.”

The fact that Skubal is feeling good is surely encouraging, but the return from flexor tendon surgery can be tricky. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was signed by the Dodgers with the hope of returning at some point the following season. However, a setback during his recovery eventually caused him to miss the entire campaign. Matthew Boyd had the same surgery in September of 2021 and returned to the mound just shy of a year later.

Boyd signed with the Tigers this offseason and is now Skubal’s teammate. “It’s a long process and it’s not linear,” Boyd said of his experience. “That was my first time being on the IL like that, my first time having that experience. The rehab process has its ups and downs, and that was unique. It takes patience, and that produces perseverance, right? And that is staying strong.”

For his part, Skubal seems to acknowledge that he has to keep a level head and can’t start ramping up too quickly. “Yeah, that’s been my problem for the last six months,” Skubal said. “Even before the surgery, that was my problem. But, these guys do a good job. I think I am progressing, and that is what I’m chasing — progress. If I can just get a little better each day and keep progressing, that’s going to put me back on the field at the right time.”

The Tigers rotation seems to be in wait-and-see mode for 2023, since there are question marks around so many of their long-term pieces. Casey Mize had Tommy John surgery in June of last year and will miss most or perhaps all of 2023. Spencer Turnbull will be back in action this year but missed all of 2022 due to his own Tommy John procedure. Matt Manning only made 12 starts last year due to shoulder inflammation and then finished the year on the injured list due to a forearm strain, though he was reported as healthy back in November. Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year deal with the Tigers but the first season saw him miss time both due to injury and personal issues, making just 17 starts. He’ll look to get back on track in 2023 but can opt out of the remainder of his deal after the season.

With all of that uncertainty, the club signed Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to one-year deals. They figure to be in the Opening Day rotation next to Manning, Rodriguez and Turnbull, with other options on the 40-man such as Joey Wentz and Beau Brieske. If the club is out of contention this summer, Boyd and Lorenzen could be trade chips if they are pitching well, since they will be impending free agents. Whenever Skubal is healthy and back on track, he’ll jump into that mix. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration after the upcoming season and reach free agency after the 2026 campaign.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Latest On Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning

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Oct 13: In a separate piece, Petzold writes that both Manning and the Tigers are optimistic that surgery will not be necessary to address the righty’s forearm issue.

Oct 12: One of the stories of the Tigers dismal 2022 season was the number of injuries they were forced to endure on the pitching staff. Detroit lost all five members of its season-opening rotation at some point along the way, including a pair of arm surgeries for arguably their top two young arms.

Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June, the culmination of a few months battling elbow troubles. Two months later, Tarik Skubal had to go under the knife himself. His was a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, a disheartening end to what had been shaping up as a breakout campaign. The Tigers didn’t provide more details about a potential recovery timeline, only announcing that he’d miss the remainder of the 2022 season.

It still isn’t clear when Skubal can expect to a return to a big league mound, but he recently updated Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press on his status. The southpaw tells Petzold he’s currently building arm strength in physical therapy and has a follow-up meeting with his surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, in December. Skubal indicated he hopes he’ll be able to begin a throwing program by January if all goes well. While he declined to specify any sort of timeline for game action, he confirmed he’s likely to pitch at some point during the 2023 season.

It seems questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, however. That’s hardly a surprise, as flexor repairs are a notable procedure in their own right. Former Tiger southpaw Matthew Boyd underwent a flexor repair last September; he didn’t return from the injured list until 11 months later. Danny Duffy had the procedure in October 2021 and has missed the entire 2022 season after suffering a setback in August. That’s not to say Skubal is certain to face the same recovery timetable, but it’s illustrative of the fact that rehabbing from these procedures is no simple matter.

Nevertheless, the 25-year-old Skubal took a generally optimistic attitude towards the flexor repair, calling it “the best-case scenario in terms of all the surgery outcomes.” He tells Petzold he went into the operation not knowing whether he’d need a full Tummy John surgery that’d surely have kept him out for all of 2023. Fortunately, his UCL was intact and didn’t require repair.

Mize and Skubal are two-thirds of what Detroit envisioned being an excellent homegrown rotation. Both are now recovering from major surgeries, and Mize will miss most or all of next year. The third, Matt Manning, was scratched from his final start of the season with what the club called a forearm strain. Manager A.J. Hinch downplayed the issue at the time, saying the team shut him down out of an abundance of caution. However, Petzold now reports that Manning is soon to head for a second opinion with Dr. Keith Meister.

To be clear, there’s no indication that Manning is facing surgery at this point. Doctors may just be keeping a close eye on the highly-touted 24-year-old. Still, Petzold writes it’s possible Manning won’t be healthy for Opening Day (although that by no means appears certain yet). Manning also missed a good chunk of the season with shoulder issues, but he took the ball every fifth day for the season’s final two months before the forearm issue arose.

Ostensible injury question marks for all three of Mize, Skubal and Manning present a major challenge for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Eduardo Rodríguez is a lock for the season-opening starting five. Skubal and Manning would be in the rotation if healthy. Detroit shuttled through a number of arms at the back end this year, but none look to have done enough to force their way into the rotation. Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo have each been prospects of note in the past, but none missed many bats at the big league level. Rony García had serviceable strikeout and walk numbers but a 5.11 ERA as a starter, and he ended the season on the IL with a shoulder problem. Spencer Turnbull will be returning after a season lost to Tommy John surgery.

Even in what’s likely to be a non-competitive 2023 campaign, Harris and his front office group will have to bring in some starting pitchers from outside the organization. There’s already room for one or two veterans to soak up innings, and it seems likely the Tigers will leverage their high offseason waiver priority to take a flier on some depth arms of interest. The need to add rotation options would only become more acute if Skubal and/or Manning aren’t able to open the season in Hinch’s rotation.

Tarik Skubal Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm this week, manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters (Twitter link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2022 season after being shifted to the 60-day injured list last week, but a surgery of this nature is significant and calls into question his readiness for the 2023 campaign. The Tigers have not provided a timetable for his recovery.

It’s a rather alarming escalation of events regarding Skubal, who just three weeks ago was at least a long-shot trade candidate in the midst of a breakout season. He exited an Aug. 1 start against the Twins after five excellent innings — three hits, no runs, no walks, four strikeouts — due to what the team termed as arm fatigue. At the time of his removal, Skubal downplayed the injury and voiced confidence that he could make his next start. As such, the subsequent trip to the 15-day injured list was viewed as something of a precautionary measure at the time.

Concern began to mount, however, when the Tigers abruptly shifted him to the 60-day injured list on Aug. 12. Hinch told reporters that day that Skubal was meeting with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache to get an additional opinion on his elbow and forearm. The Tigers definitively shut him down for the season at that point.

Flexor tendon surgery doesn’t necessarily come with as lengthy of a recovery period as the typical 12 to 14 months for Tommy John surgery, but it’s hardly a short-term outlook in most cases. Every procedure and recovery process is different, but it’s worth noting that a pair of high-profile lefties — Danny Duffy and Skubal’s former teammate, Matthew Boyd — underwent similar procedures last year and have not yet made it back to the mound. Boyd (September surgery) and Duffy (October) were both targeting June returns but have since encountered setbacks that have impeded their progress.

Again, there are plenty of instances of pitchers returning from this injury more promptly, and the Tigers haven’t provided specifics on Skubal’s surgery. There’s no sense in attempting to speculate on a specific return date with incomplete information. That said, we’re about six months out from the start of 2023 Spring Training already, so simply looking to other flexor surgeries in recent years, it’s fair to wonder whether Skubal’s availability early in 2023 might be impacted.

It’s another blow to what’s been an astonishingly snakebitten Tigers pitching staff in 2022. For the past several years, the tantalizing trio of Skubal, Casey Mize and Matt Manning — all of them former top-100 prospects — was heralded as the foundation of Detroit’s pitching staff for years to come. Instead, that trio has been beset by injuries, two of which have now resulted in major surgeries. Skubal will face a months-long recovery from his flexor procedure. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Manning hasn’t gone under the knife but has dealt with a notable shoulder injury this year and a forearm strain of his own back in 2020. At the very least, Manning is healthy at the moment; he came off the injured list earlier this month and has made three solid appearances — though those are just his third, fourth and fifth starts of the season.

Detroit’s struggles extend well beyond injuries to that promising group of arms, however. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene missed the first two-plus months of the season with a broken foot and has been overmatched by MLB pitching since returning (.228/.287/.330 in 244 plate appearances). Both Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson were ranked among the game’s top five overall prospects heading into the season, but Torkelson endured similar struggles (.197/.282/.295) before being optioned to Triple-A earlier in the summer.

The Tigers have also had notable injuries to expected contributors (Austin Meadows, Michael Pineda), seen established 2021 contributors regress (Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo) and received nowhere near the help they expected from their top two free-agent signings. Javier Baez is hitting just .227/.269/.378 on the year, while lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched just 39 innings due to injury and to time spent away from the team while dealing with a reported marital issue. Rodriguez is expected to return this weekend (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), but the team’s season has clearly already gone off the rails.

Any of these woes, in isolation, would perhaps be manageable for a team to overcome. Taken in totality, however, there’s no reasonable way to expect a team to withstand that type of strain on the roster. The dam finally burst last week when the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila.

The Tigers will have a new general manager within the coming months, but it’s not yet clear just how said executive and how owner Chris Ilitch envision fixing the mess that has been the 2022 season. That much was true even before the Tigers learned that their top young starter required surgery to repair a flexor tendon. Skubal made 21 starts this season and pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a quality 45.7% grounder rate.

Prior to his injury, Skubal’s development was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise calamitous Tigers season, but he’ll now add to the daunting sense of uncertainty that permeates the roster. The Tigers control Skubal and Mize through the 2026 season. Manning is controllable through 2027. Torkelson and Greene can be controlled through at least 2028.

Tarik Skubal Visiting Specialist With Elbow Issue; Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season

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4:32pm: Skubal is set to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is alarmingly dealing with some form of elbow injury, although Hinch declined to speculate as to whether surgery was a possibility until the results of next week’s testing became apparent. McCosky adds that Skubal will not return to the mound in 2022 in any event.

3:03pm: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve transferred lefty Tarik Skubal from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The move opens a spot on the roster for lefty Daniel Norris, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Toledo (as previously reported). It also casts doubt on whether Skubal will return at all in the 2022 season. Since he was placed on the 15-day IL on Aug. 2, there’s still technically time for him to get back for the final week of games in early October — but today’s move makes that look fairly unlikely.

It’s a fairly surprising shift for Skubal, who was placed on the injured list due to general arm fatigue. Skubal was lifted from his final start of the season after five efficient innings and downplayed any severity, telling the Tigers beat that he anticipated making his next start. Instead, it’s now possible that he won’t pitch in a game until next season. The Tigers didn’t provide any further updates on Skubal’s health beyond the move to the 60-day IL, though manager AJ Hinch will presumably divulge some additional context prior to tonight’s game.

If Skubal’s season is indeed over, it was a strong breakout year for the former top prospect. The 25-year-old will fall shy of last year’s 149 2/3 innings, but in the 117 2/3 frames he managed during the 2022 campaign, Skubal worked to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a solid 45.7% grounder rate. Most importantly, he maintained the generally sharp strikeout and walk rates he’d displayed in 2021 while dramatically scaling back his home-run rate (2.11 HR/9 in 2021; 0.69 HR/9 in 2022). If Skubal can continue to miss bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground and limit home runs in this capacity, there’s room for even greater improvement (as evidenced by his hearty 2.97 FIP).

Whether there’s another gear for Skubal or this is roughly his peak output, he’s solidified himself as at least a quality mid-rotation option for Hinch in the coming years. Though there was talk of the Tigers being willing to at least listen to offers on the lefty before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the Tigers would’ve required an exorbitant haul to part with him given that he’s still under team control for another four seasons beyond the current campaign. Given the current uncertainty regarding his arm, it’s difficult to imagine those talks being revisited this winter, as the Tigers — who’ll be operating under a new general manager after firing Al Avila yesterday — would be selling low on the heels of a lengthy IL stay.

As for what the Tigers’ rotation will look like moving forward, it’s practically anyone’s guess. Skubal joins Casey Mize and Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John surgery in both cases) as key rotation pieces on the 60-day injured list. The Tigers are currently also without Michael Pineda, Beau Brieske and Rony Garcia (injured list) and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (rehabbing following a lengthy stay on the restricted list while dealing with a reported marital issue). That’s left the Tigers with Norris, Matt Manning, Tyler Alexander, journeyman Drew Hutchison and rookie Garrett Hill as options for the time being. With little certainty among that quintet, there figures to be additional rotation tumult in the final weeks of the year.

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