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Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

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A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

A.J. Puk Likely To Open Season In Marlins’ Rotation

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The Marlins revealed back in December that they planned to stretch lefty A.J. Puk out and plug him back into a starting role after he’s spent his entire career to date in the bullpen. Puk, a former standout starter at the University of Florida and a starter for most of his minor league tenure, is now “a frontrunner” to claim the fourth spot in Miami’s rotation, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.

Puk will turn 29 in April. He’s never made a big league start but has started 42 games in the minors — most coming early in his tenure. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2016) moved to the bullpen in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year prior. Puk took well to that relief role, debuting in the majors with 11 1/3 innings late in 2019. He held opponents to four runs on ten hits and five walks with 13 strikeouts — good for a 3.18 ERA. He looked to have locked up a spot on the 2020 roster, but Puk experienced shoulder pain the following spring and wound up missing the season due to an eventual debridement surgery.

The 2021 season was a rough one for Puk, though that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher who’d undergone Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery within 24 months of each other. He split the year between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in both settings. The 2022 campaign finally brought a breakout for the talented but snakebitten southpaw; he pitched 66 1/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and worked to a 3.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate.

The A’s, by then in the midst of a complete rebuild, traded Puk to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder JJ Bleday — another former top-10 overall pick (No. 4) who’d not yet lived up to the expectations associated with that lofty draft status. It worked out nicely for the Fish. In 56 2/3 frames, Puk logged a 3.97 ERA with far more encouraging secondary marks: 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, 2.66 SIERA. Puk wound up leading the Marlins with 15 saves.

Clearly encouraged by the per-inning strength of those results, the Marlins will now try to maximize Puk’s workload by moving him into a starting role. Much has been made of the Marlins’ enviable pitching depth over the years, but Puk’s move to the rotation is in part due to the fact that Miami’s stash of promising young arms is no longer as deep as it once was.

Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Braxton Garrett is behind schedule in camp due to a shoulder issue and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer have been slowed by injuries. Sanchez, in particular, hasn’t pitched since 2020. Another touted arm, Jake Eder, was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger. Southpaw Trevor Rogers has struggled through injuries and poor results since his second-place finish in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.

If Puk is able to successfully move back into a starting role, it’d obviously be a boon for the Fish. It’s a move that could reap long-term benefits, too, as Puk is controllable through the 2026 season. The Marlins will presumably be careful with his workload after the lefty pitched just 59 1/3 innings last year between the majors and a brief minor league rehab assignment following a nerve issue in his elbow. But if he can progress to pitching 100-plus innings this year, it’s easier to envision any restrictions being removed for the 2025 campaign.

There’s some risk to the move, of course. Puk has a lengthy injury history and is no guarantee to hold up with a full rotation workload. By moving him to the starting staff, Miami is also notably weakening its relief corps. The Puk transition bodes well for Tanner Scott, who’ll likely spend his entire platform season before free agency as the Marlins’ closer. But beyond Scott, the Fish will rely on a series of arms with short track records and/or notable injury histories. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, JT Chargois and George Soriano all have had big league success but have all yet to establish themselves as consistent, year-to-year performers.

Assuming the Marlins indeed stick with this plan, Puk will slot into the rotation behind Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. The aforementioned Rogers and fellow lefty Ryan Weathers are the leading candidates for the fifth spot, Jackson notes, with Rogers a likelier fit than Weathers. Sanchez, once viewed as a rotation building block, is out of minor league options but figures to head to the bullpen if he’s healthy enough to make the roster. Whoever grabs the fifth spot will essentially be a placeholder for Garrett anyhow. That said, given workload concerns for Puk and the general frequency with which pitchers get injured, it’s likely that all of Puk, Rogers, Garrett and Weathers will wind up starting a fair share of games in South Florida this season.

Tanner Scott Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Left-hander Tanner Scott won his arbitration hearing with the Marlins, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The Marlins were looking to pay Scott $5.15MM in 2023, but the reliever will instead earn his desired figure of $5.7MM.

The salary checks in just slightly under the $5.8MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Scott, but it’s still a very nice raise for the southpaw in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Scott avoided arbitration in his first two winters of eligibility, and his $5.7MM salary is more than double the $2.825MM he earned in 2023.

The payday comes in the wake of the best season of Scott’s seven-year MLB career.  The lefty posted a 2.31 ERA over 78 innings for Miami, and only four pitchers topped Scott’s total of 74 appearances.  Beyond the durability, Scott’s Statcast page is a veritable sea of red, as he ranked in at least the 90th percentile of almost every major statistical category.  The eye-popping numbers included a 33.9% strikeout rate, 26.3% hard-hit ball rate, and 35.3% chase rate that all ranked among the league’s elite.

Scott’s 7.8% walk rate was modest in comparison, sitting at “only” the 60th percentile of all pitchers.  Yet this stat was perhaps the key element to Scott’s success, given how control problems have plagued his career — Scott had a career 14.2% walk rate prior to his greatly improved 7.8BB% last season.  Pundits and scouts have long felt that Scott had elite potential if he could ever harness his stuff, and 2023 is a very promising sign that Scott has now turned the corner at age 29.

Scott moved into the closer’s job down the stretch for Miami and looks to assume that same role heading into the coming season.  Since he is set to hit free agency next winter, Scott stands out as a potential trade chip if the Marlins aren’t in contention by the deadline.  There was even some speculative trade buzz around Scott this winter given the Marlins’ surplus of left-handed relievers, though the Fish already moved another southpaw last week when Steven Okert was dealt to the Twins for Nick Gordon.

Scott’s case was the final pending arbitration hearing of the 2023-24 offseason, and the players emerged with a winning record from this year’s slate of hearings.  Players won nine of the 15 cases that went to arbitration.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

NL East Notes: Robertson, Albies, Nationals

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When the Marlins shipped a pair of intriguing young prospects to New York in order to acquire veteran right-hander David Robertson from the Mets, it was a statement of intent to contend by Miami, as they acquired perhaps the top rental reliever available at this year’s trade deadline. It was Robertson’s second time being dealt at the deadline in as many years, as the 38-year-old veteran was swapped from the Cubs to the Phillies in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown 13 months ago. Sporting a 2.23 ERA in 40 1/3 innings of work at the time of that deal, Robertson went on to post similarly excellent numbers in Philadelphia with a 2.70 ERA in 22 regular season appearances down the stretch and just one run allowed in his eight postseason appearances as the Phillies headed to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

At the time of this year’s deal, Robertson was having an even better season, with a 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work with a 27.9% strikeout rate. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he hasn’t been the shutdown closer they were expecting in ten appearances with the club. He’s posted a brutal 7.20 ERA and 6.17 FIP in ten innings since joining Miami, with just four saves in seven chances. Those brutal results have led the Marlins to remove their veteran deadline addition from the closer role entirely, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mish suggests Tanner Scott, who sports a 2.59 ERA and 2.12 FIP in 59 innings of work this season, could replace Robertson as the club’s closer moving forward.

The move reflects the dire situation Miami finds itself in after a difficult August; at the time of the Robertson deal, the club was 54-49 and firmly in the mix for one of the NL Wild Card spots. Since then, the Marlins have gone just 12-16, falling to 65-64 and three games back of the third Wild Card spot. While that’s hardly an insurmountable deficit with more than a month to go in the season, the club is facing playoff odds of just 19.4% at this point per Fangraphs, far worse than their 49.3% odds on the day of the Robertson deal.

More from the NL East…

  • Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has been on the 10-day injured list since earlier this month with a hamstring strain, but could already be nearing a return. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relayed an update regarding Albies this evening, indicating that Atlanta will “see just how well he feels” tomorrow after a successful workout this afternoon. When Albies is ready to go, it seems he’ll be activated from the injured list directly, as Toscano notes that manager Brian Snitker has previously indicated the infielder won’t require a rehab assignment before returning to action. Albies, who sports a 121 wRC+ in 510 trips to the plate this season, has been covered for by Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom at the keystone while he’s been on the shelf.
  • The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club had optioned outfielder Blake Rutherford to Triple-A. Rutherford, a 26-year-old journeyman and former first-round pick by the Yankees who made his MLB debut with Washington earlier this month, slashed just .182/.206/.182 in 34 trips to the plate with the Nationals prior to his demotion. Rutherford’s demotion sparked rumors regarding who would replace him on the active roster, with both Bobby Blanco and Mark Zuckerman of MASN indicating that the club could look to promote catching prospect Drew Millas. Millas, the club’s 23rd-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, is a defensive-first catcher who has impressed with the bat this season, batting .291/.390/.442 in 328 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

The Marlins’ Quartet Of Lefty Relievers

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Heading into the 2023 season, most fans would’ve expected the NL East to contain at least three legitimate playoff contenders. Few, however, pegged that trio to include the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Conventional wisdom said that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Series appearance made them the teams to watch in the division. But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Much of that success has been attributable to Miami’s strong showing in one-run games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s best team by a wide margin. Their .722 winning percentage in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is rather comfortably the best in the game. Heck, as I was writing this, the Marlins won another one-run game, thanks to some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.

There are certain traits that make a team likely to compete and succeed in large number of closely contested games. A lineup that struggles to score runs in bulk and is heavily reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is bound to play in a lot of close games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins so far in 2023; they entered play Wednesday 26th in MLB with 465 runs scored and 27th with 106 home runs.

A strong bullpen that’s capable of holding the too-often narrow leads afforded to the pitching staff is also a key factor in mastering one-run victories. Again, that’s been the case in Miami for much of the season. While the Marlins shook up their bullpen prior to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an exchange of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and trading a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have generally had a solid relief corps in 2023. Or rather, they’ve had a strong top half of a top-heavy bullpen. Adding Robertson to help deepen the group makes the team better, to be sure, but Miami was already had a strong bullpen group thanks in large part to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at virtually no cost.

Chief among that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Long one of the most touted arms in the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser just before Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve plenty of credit for the team they’ve put together, but this swap is probably one that Baltimore GM Mike Elias would like back. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a trade that sent a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.

Sulser has already departed the Marlins organization — the D-backs claimed him on waivers last November — but Scott has emerged as one of the best lefties in the game. His power arsenal was always tantalizing, but Scott’s lack of command continually proved frustrating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, but the 2023 campaign has been another story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and ghastly 15.9% walk rate last year, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 10% walk rate. Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on. Over his past 32 frames, Scott has walked only 7% of his opponents.

Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike rate and 36.2% chase rate — and that’s before he struck out the side against the Reds in this afternoon’s inning of work. There are only three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a higher swinging-strike rate. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and only four qualified relievers top him in terms of win probability added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a bargain $2.825MM this season and control him through the 2024 season.

Many clubs would be thrilled to simply have one quality southpaw of this caliber, but the Marlins are deeper than any club in MLB when it comes to lefty relievers. Scott might be the biggest name of the bunch, but the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi might be the most anonymous member of the group, but he’s been nothing short of outstanding this season.

A former 16th-round pick by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings but allowing 16 runs in that time. Few fans looked at him and saw a breakout candidate, but in 39 2/3 innings this year, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s been limited by a triceps injury this summer but was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is back working in a high-leverage capacity. Since picking up his first big league save back on May 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves along the way — and both numbers would be higher had he not spent a month on the injured list in that span.

Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike rate is excellent, and his 35% chase rate is even better. Virtually no one can square up the ball against the 24-year-old; he sits in the 99th percentile of big league pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in overall hard-hit rate. Nardi doesn’t even have a year of Major League service yet, so the Marlins can control him all the way through the 2028 season, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.

There’s also 32-year-old Steven Okert to consider — a gem unearthed in minor league free agency. The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball under his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a talented relief corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.

Again, the walks are a bit too high, but it should be noted that Okert has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 while dropping his walk rate to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up each season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his five pitches, turning him solely into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches more in the middle innings than Scott and Nardi, but he’s still picked up 10 holds. The results are outstanding, and he can be controlled cheaply for three years beyond the current season. Not too shabby for someone signed to a minor league deal three offseasons ago.

Left-hander A.J. Puk might be the most recognizable name of the bunch, thanks to both his lofty draft status (No. 6 overall in 2016) and his inclusion in a reasonably high-profile trade this offseason (sending former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday back to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least impressive of the group, but the underlying numbers are far more impressive. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents against just a 4.9% walk rate while recording a swinging-strike rate just shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June before a rough patch that saw him allow runs in six of nine appearances. He’s since rebounded with four straight scoreless outings, whiffing five hitters without issuing a walk in 3 1/3 innings.

Puk has been hampered by a .337 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand rate, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to cast a far more favorable light on the lefty than his earned run average does. Puk certainly wasn’t flawless in serving as the Marlins’ primary closer — 15-for-21 in save opportunities — and that, coupled with his rough stretch last month, might have nudged Miami to acquire Robertson. That said, lefties who average 96 mph don’t grow on trees, and Puk’s blend of elite strikeout and walk rates signals better days ahead.

In fact, Marlins relievers as a whole are among the best in baseball when it comes to both piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Each of the four lefties profiled here rank in the top 10 of all qualified relievers in terms of differential between strikeout rate and walk rate (i.e. K-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that category, and adding Robertson for the final two months of the season should help them out.

There are plenty of reasons for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, big steps forward from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. But heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to receive this type of output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the fact that they came to the organization via a minor league deal, a 16th-round pick, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s still struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is even more impressive. They’ll all return for the 2024 season at least, and with Robertson helping lead the charge down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will continue to be dangerous in tightly contested games.

Marlins Notes: Puk, Scott, Nance, Brazoban, Gurriel

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The Marlins are dealing with various small injuries throughout their spring camp, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The slate of injuries include three relievers. Left-hander A.J. Puk has some tightness in the adductor muscle of his left leg, fellow lefty Tanner Scott is dealing with slight discomfort in his left biceps, while Tommy Nance has discomfort in his right shoulder. Puk and Scott are playing catch today but Nance will be reevaluated in a couple of days. “I’m not too concerned,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said to Jackson and Mish. “If it was a starter who had to get built up, that’s a whole different story. But the relievers, I think that’s a little easier.”

Puk, just acquired from the A’s a few weeks ago, was once one of  the top prospects in the league but has struggled to stay healthy. Shoulder issues prevented him from making an appearance in 2020 and he struggled in 2021. He bounced back nicely last year, however, posting a 3.12 ERA over 62 appearances.

Scott was acquired from the Orioles a year ago and had a solid season for Miami, despite some control issues. He walked 15.9% of batters faced but struck out 31.1% and got grounders at a 46.3% clip. Nance was claimed off waivers from the Cubs about a year ago and registered a 4.33 ERA in 43 2/3 innings last year. He struck out 29.1% of opponents while walking 10.7%, also getting grounders at a strong 46.4% rate.

There’s also one other hiccup in the club’s bullpen, as Huascar Brazobán has yet to report to camp due to a visa issue. However, the issue has been resolved and Brazobán should be leaving the Dominican Republic for the United States tomorrow. The righty was a nice story last year, making his major league debut at the age of 32. He tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 14.9% walk rate and 49.4% ground ball rate.

All in all, it seems like a pile of minor issues scattered throughout the bullpen, but they are situations worth monitoring with only about four weeks until Opening Day.

Leaving aside the bullpen, the club has been connected to free agent Yuli Gurriel multiple times this offseason. The most recent reporting indicated they offered him a $2MM deal at one point but took that offer the table when a week went by without a response. Today, Jackson and Mish report that the club is still willing to bring Gurriel into camp as a non-roster invitee if he’s interested.

The fact that a minor league deal hasn’t yet come to fruition suggests that Gurriel is perhaps still holding out for a major league pact. Garrett Cooper is penciled in as the club’s first baseman but he’s dealt with various injuries in his career and it makes sense that the Fish would look to add some depth behind him. Gurriel was a batting champ as recently as 2021 but he’s now entering his age-39 season and is coming off a rough campaign. He hit just .242/.288/.360 last year for a wRC+ of 85, indicating he was 15% worse than the league average hitter.

If Gurriel continues to linger on the market, the Marlins could potentially contact other first base options. The free agent market still features other bounceback candidates like Miguel Sanó and Mike Moustakas.

Marlins’ Bullpen Generating Trade Interest

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Just as Detroit will be receiving interest in a huge chunk of its bullpen, Miami figures to have several relievers on the block. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro tweets that the Fish have gotten interest on lefties Tanner Scott and Steven Okert as well as right-handers Dylan Floro and Anthony Bass.

The 28-year-old Scott surely has the highest price tag, as he’s leading the club with 14 saves and has long tantalized scouts with a blistering fastball and power slider, dating back to his time in Baltimore. He’s averaged 96.8 mph on that heater this season and ramped up the usage of his slider to a career-high 66%. The result is a career-best 31.8% strikeout rate, a huge 15.3% swinging-strike rate and a 31.3% chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone.

Scott’s command — or lack thereof — is the elephant in the room. The southpaw has walked 15.3% of his opponents this season, plunked three hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. That’s been par for the course throughout Scott’s career, evidenced by a bloated 14% walk rate. Were Scott’s command even average or just slightly below-average, his overpowering fastball/slider blend could make him one of the sport’s most dominant relievers. That hasn’t been the case, however, which is surely why the Marlins were able to acquire both Scott and Cole Sulser from the Orioles this past offseason in exchange for a Competitive Balance draft pick (Round B) and a pair of low-level minor leaguers.

It was still a surprising return for a player with Scott’s stuff, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2024 season. That remaining control will obviously appeal to clubs but also make the asking price on him fairly steep. The Marlins are known to be looking for immediate offensive upgrades in trade returns, and Scott’s two-plus seasons of control could embolden them to do so when teams call about the power-armed lefty.

Okert, meanwhile, has been a great find for the Fish. The 31-year-old signed a minor league deal after spending nine years in the Giants organization and never establishing himself in their bullpen. He’s been great in Miami dating back to 2021 however, working to a combined 2.74 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate  and 10.9% walk rate. Okert doesn’t have Scott’s power stuff and has also been homer-prone, but the late nature of his breakout means he can be controlled another five seasons.

Both Floro and Bass are closer to free agency and, as such, seem likelier to change hands. The 31-year-old Floro is earning $3MM this season and has pitched to a 3.49 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates (5.3% and 50%, respectively). He’s excelled at keeping the ball in the yard throughout his career with the Rays, Cubs, Dodgers and now Marlins, yielding just 0.5 homers per nine frames.

Floro isn’t without red flags, though. He’s never been an especially hard thrower but has seen his average heater drop from 93.8 mph in 2021 to 91.8 mph in 2022. And after posting one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the Majors from 2016-21 (31.5%), he’s yielded a 41.4% hard-hit rate this season along with a career-high 88.7 mph average exit velocity (the latter of which is right in line with the league average, to be fair).

Of the whole group, Bass seems the best bet to go. The 34-year-old signed a two-year, $5MM contract with Miami prior to the 2021 season and posted a solid but unremarkable 3.82 ERA through 61 1/3 innings in his first season in South Florida. This year, however, Bass is toting a pristine 1.41 ERA with a career-high 26% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.8% walk rate. Like Scott, he’s throwing his slider at a career-high rate (56%) and has enjoyed terrific results thanks to the change.

Bass is also controlled for the 2023 season by virtue of an eminently reasonable $3MM club option. That could be good reason for the Marlins to hang onto him, as they’re intent on competing in the near future, but there’s some risk in hanging onto a reliever for what would be his age-35 season as well.

Any of the relievers here could make sense as trade candidates on their own, but it’s also intriguing to think about the possibility of them being packaged as part of a larger deal. Pairing any of the four together would be appealing for a contender seeking bullpen help (which applies to pretty much every contender), and the Marlins could also add a bullpen arm to a package if they’re trying to coax out an even bigger return for a pitcher such as Pablo Lopez, on whom they’re reportedly at least listening to offers.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

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The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Orioles Acquire Yaqui Rivera From Marlins

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The Orioles announced they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Yaqui Rivera from the Marlins. He’s the player to be named later in the April deal that sent relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott to South Florida.

Rivera, 18, was a recent signee of Miami’s out of the Dominican Republic. He made his professional debut last season with a few outings in complex ball and nine starts in the Dominican Summer League. Rivera, who has never appeared on an organizational prospects list at FanGraphs or Baseball America, missed some bats but also had an elevated walk rate — unsurprising tendencies for a pitcher so young.

The 6’2″ hurler is one of three young players the O’s added to the organization in the deal. Baltimore also picked up left-hander Antonio Velez, who has struggled with home runs over his first eight outings in Double-A this year, and low minors outfielder Kevin Guerrero. The 25-year-old Velez is certainly the most likely of the trio to make any kind of near-term impact in spite of his early struggles in Bowie; Guerrero and Rivera are long-term developmental fliers.

Sulser and Scott have each stepped into the big league bullpen in Miami, with the former assuming some high-leverage opportunities. It’s been a fairly similar start to the season for both, who each have quality swing-and-miss numbers but have struggled with control. Sulser owns a 4.50 ERA through 18 innings, and he’s seen his fastball velocity drop nearly two ticks on average relative to last season. Scott remains among the harder left-handed throwers in the game, but he’s dealt with strike-throwing issues throughout his career. He has a 5.40 ERA in 18 1/3 frames with the Fish.

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