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Tanner Scott Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Left-hander Tanner Scott won his arbitration hearing with the Marlins, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The Marlins were looking to pay Scott $5.15MM in 2023, but the reliever will instead earn his desired figure of $5.7MM.

The salary checks in just slightly under the $5.8MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Scott, but it’s still a very nice raise for the southpaw in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Scott avoided arbitration in his first two winters of eligibility, and his $5.7MM salary is more than double the $2.825MM he earned in 2023.

The payday comes in the wake of the best season of Scott’s seven-year MLB career.  The lefty posted a 2.31 ERA over 78 innings for Miami, and only four pitchers topped Scott’s total of 74 appearances.  Beyond the durability, Scott’s Statcast page is a veritable sea of red, as he ranked in at least the 90th percentile of almost every major statistical category.  The eye-popping numbers included a 33.9% strikeout rate, 26.3% hard-hit ball rate, and 35.3% chase rate that all ranked among the league’s elite.

Scott’s 7.8% walk rate was modest in comparison, sitting at “only” the 60th percentile of all pitchers.  Yet this stat was perhaps the key element to Scott’s success, given how control problems have plagued his career — Scott had a career 14.2% walk rate prior to his greatly improved 7.8BB% last season.  Pundits and scouts have long felt that Scott had elite potential if he could ever harness his stuff, and 2023 is a very promising sign that Scott has now turned the corner at age 29.

Scott moved into the closer’s job down the stretch for Miami and looks to assume that same role heading into the coming season.  Since he is set to hit free agency next winter, Scott stands out as a potential trade chip if the Marlins aren’t in contention by the deadline.  There was even some speculative trade buzz around Scott this winter given the Marlins’ surplus of left-handed relievers, though the Fish already moved another southpaw last week when Steven Okert was dealt to the Twins for Nick Gordon.

Scott’s case was the final pending arbitration hearing of the 2023-24 offseason, and the players emerged with a winning record from this year’s slate of hearings.  Players won nine of the 15 cases that went to arbitration.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

NL East Notes: Robertson, Albies, Nationals

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When the Marlins shipped a pair of intriguing young prospects to New York in order to acquire veteran right-hander David Robertson from the Mets, it was a statement of intent to contend by Miami, as they acquired perhaps the top rental reliever available at this year’s trade deadline. It was Robertson’s second time being dealt at the deadline in as many years, as the 38-year-old veteran was swapped from the Cubs to the Phillies in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown 13 months ago. Sporting a 2.23 ERA in 40 1/3 innings of work at the time of that deal, Robertson went on to post similarly excellent numbers in Philadelphia with a 2.70 ERA in 22 regular season appearances down the stretch and just one run allowed in his eight postseason appearances as the Phillies headed to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

At the time of this year’s deal, Robertson was having an even better season, with a 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work with a 27.9% strikeout rate. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he hasn’t been the shutdown closer they were expecting in ten appearances with the club. He’s posted a brutal 7.20 ERA and 6.17 FIP in ten innings since joining Miami, with just four saves in seven chances. Those brutal results have led the Marlins to remove their veteran deadline addition from the closer role entirely, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mish suggests Tanner Scott, who sports a 2.59 ERA and 2.12 FIP in 59 innings of work this season, could replace Robertson as the club’s closer moving forward.

The move reflects the dire situation Miami finds itself in after a difficult August; at the time of the Robertson deal, the club was 54-49 and firmly in the mix for one of the NL Wild Card spots. Since then, the Marlins have gone just 12-16, falling to 65-64 and three games back of the third Wild Card spot. While that’s hardly an insurmountable deficit with more than a month to go in the season, the club is facing playoff odds of just 19.4% at this point per Fangraphs, far worse than their 49.3% odds on the day of the Robertson deal.

More from the NL East…

  • Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has been on the 10-day injured list since earlier this month with a hamstring strain, but could already be nearing a return. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relayed an update regarding Albies this evening, indicating that Atlanta will “see just how well he feels” tomorrow after a successful workout this afternoon. When Albies is ready to go, it seems he’ll be activated from the injured list directly, as Toscano notes that manager Brian Snitker has previously indicated the infielder won’t require a rehab assignment before returning to action. Albies, who sports a 121 wRC+ in 510 trips to the plate this season, has been covered for by Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom at the keystone while he’s been on the shelf.
  • The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club had optioned outfielder Blake Rutherford to Triple-A. Rutherford, a 26-year-old journeyman and former first-round pick by the Yankees who made his MLB debut with Washington earlier this month, slashed just .182/.206/.182 in 34 trips to the plate with the Nationals prior to his demotion. Rutherford’s demotion sparked rumors regarding who would replace him on the active roster, with both Bobby Blanco and Mark Zuckerman of MASN indicating that the club could look to promote catching prospect Drew Millas. Millas, the club’s 23rd-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, is a defensive-first catcher who has impressed with the bat this season, batting .291/.390/.442 in 328 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

The Marlins’ Quartet Of Lefty Relievers

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Heading into the 2023 season, most fans would’ve expected the NL East to contain at least three legitimate playoff contenders. Few, however, pegged that trio to include the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Conventional wisdom said that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Series appearance made them the teams to watch in the division. But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Much of that success has been attributable to Miami’s strong showing in one-run games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s best team by a wide margin. Their .722 winning percentage in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is rather comfortably the best in the game. Heck, as I was writing this, the Marlins won another one-run game, thanks to some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.

There are certain traits that make a team likely to compete and succeed in large number of closely contested games. A lineup that struggles to score runs in bulk and is heavily reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is bound to play in a lot of close games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins so far in 2023; they entered play Wednesday 26th in MLB with 465 runs scored and 27th with 106 home runs.

A strong bullpen that’s capable of holding the too-often narrow leads afforded to the pitching staff is also a key factor in mastering one-run victories. Again, that’s been the case in Miami for much of the season. While the Marlins shook up their bullpen prior to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an exchange of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and trading a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have generally had a solid relief corps in 2023. Or rather, they’ve had a strong top half of a top-heavy bullpen. Adding Robertson to help deepen the group makes the team better, to be sure, but Miami was already had a strong bullpen group thanks in large part to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at virtually no cost.

Chief among that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Long one of the most touted arms in the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser just before Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve plenty of credit for the team they’ve put together, but this swap is probably one that Baltimore GM Mike Elias would like back. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a trade that sent a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.

Sulser has already departed the Marlins organization — the D-backs claimed him on waivers last November — but Scott has emerged as one of the best lefties in the game. His power arsenal was always tantalizing, but Scott’s lack of command continually proved frustrating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, but the 2023 campaign has been another story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and ghastly 15.9% walk rate last year, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 10% walk rate. Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on. Over his past 32 frames, Scott has walked only 7% of his opponents.

Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike rate and 36.2% chase rate — and that’s before he struck out the side against the Reds in this afternoon’s inning of work. There are only three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a higher swinging-strike rate. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and only four qualified relievers top him in terms of win probability added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a bargain $2.825MM this season and control him through the 2024 season.

Many clubs would be thrilled to simply have one quality southpaw of this caliber, but the Marlins are deeper than any club in MLB when it comes to lefty relievers. Scott might be the biggest name of the bunch, but the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi might be the most anonymous member of the group, but he’s been nothing short of outstanding this season.

A former 16th-round pick by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings but allowing 16 runs in that time. Few fans looked at him and saw a breakout candidate, but in 39 2/3 innings this year, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s been limited by a triceps injury this summer but was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is back working in a high-leverage capacity. Since picking up his first big league save back on May 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves along the way — and both numbers would be higher had he not spent a month on the injured list in that span.

Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike rate is excellent, and his 35% chase rate is even better. Virtually no one can square up the ball against the 24-year-old; he sits in the 99th percentile of big league pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in overall hard-hit rate. Nardi doesn’t even have a year of Major League service yet, so the Marlins can control him all the way through the 2028 season, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.

There’s also 32-year-old Steven Okert to consider — a gem unearthed in minor league free agency. The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball under his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a talented relief corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.

Again, the walks are a bit too high, but it should be noted that Okert has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 while dropping his walk rate to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up each season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his five pitches, turning him solely into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches more in the middle innings than Scott and Nardi, but he’s still picked up 10 holds. The results are outstanding, and he can be controlled cheaply for three years beyond the current season. Not too shabby for someone signed to a minor league deal three offseasons ago.

Left-hander A.J. Puk might be the most recognizable name of the bunch, thanks to both his lofty draft status (No. 6 overall in 2016) and his inclusion in a reasonably high-profile trade this offseason (sending former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday back to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least impressive of the group, but the underlying numbers are far more impressive. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents against just a 4.9% walk rate while recording a swinging-strike rate just shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June before a rough patch that saw him allow runs in six of nine appearances. He’s since rebounded with four straight scoreless outings, whiffing five hitters without issuing a walk in 3 1/3 innings.

Puk has been hampered by a .337 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand rate, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to cast a far more favorable light on the lefty than his earned run average does. Puk certainly wasn’t flawless in serving as the Marlins’ primary closer — 15-for-21 in save opportunities — and that, coupled with his rough stretch last month, might have nudged Miami to acquire Robertson. That said, lefties who average 96 mph don’t grow on trees, and Puk’s blend of elite strikeout and walk rates signals better days ahead.

In fact, Marlins relievers as a whole are among the best in baseball when it comes to both piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Each of the four lefties profiled here rank in the top 10 of all qualified relievers in terms of differential between strikeout rate and walk rate (i.e. K-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that category, and adding Robertson for the final two months of the season should help them out.

There are plenty of reasons for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, big steps forward from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. But heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to receive this type of output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the fact that they came to the organization via a minor league deal, a 16th-round pick, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s still struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is even more impressive. They’ll all return for the 2024 season at least, and with Robertson helping lead the charge down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will continue to be dangerous in tightly contested games.

Marlins Notes: Puk, Scott, Nance, Brazoban, Gurriel

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The Marlins are dealing with various small injuries throughout their spring camp, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The slate of injuries include three relievers. Left-hander A.J. Puk has some tightness in the adductor muscle of his left leg, fellow lefty Tanner Scott is dealing with slight discomfort in his left biceps, while Tommy Nance has discomfort in his right shoulder. Puk and Scott are playing catch today but Nance will be reevaluated in a couple of days. “I’m not too concerned,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said to Jackson and Mish. “If it was a starter who had to get built up, that’s a whole different story. But the relievers, I think that’s a little easier.”

Puk, just acquired from the A’s a few weeks ago, was once one of  the top prospects in the league but has struggled to stay healthy. Shoulder issues prevented him from making an appearance in 2020 and he struggled in 2021. He bounced back nicely last year, however, posting a 3.12 ERA over 62 appearances.

Scott was acquired from the Orioles a year ago and had a solid season for Miami, despite some control issues. He walked 15.9% of batters faced but struck out 31.1% and got grounders at a 46.3% clip. Nance was claimed off waivers from the Cubs about a year ago and registered a 4.33 ERA in 43 2/3 innings last year. He struck out 29.1% of opponents while walking 10.7%, also getting grounders at a strong 46.4% rate.

There’s also one other hiccup in the club’s bullpen, as Huascar Brazobán has yet to report to camp due to a visa issue. However, the issue has been resolved and Brazobán should be leaving the Dominican Republic for the United States tomorrow. The righty was a nice story last year, making his major league debut at the age of 32. He tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 14.9% walk rate and 49.4% ground ball rate.

All in all, it seems like a pile of minor issues scattered throughout the bullpen, but they are situations worth monitoring with only about four weeks until Opening Day.

Leaving aside the bullpen, the club has been connected to free agent Yuli Gurriel multiple times this offseason. The most recent reporting indicated they offered him a $2MM deal at one point but took that offer the table when a week went by without a response. Today, Jackson and Mish report that the club is still willing to bring Gurriel into camp as a non-roster invitee if he’s interested.

The fact that a minor league deal hasn’t yet come to fruition suggests that Gurriel is perhaps still holding out for a major league pact. Garrett Cooper is penciled in as the club’s first baseman but he’s dealt with various injuries in his career and it makes sense that the Fish would look to add some depth behind him. Gurriel was a batting champ as recently as 2021 but he’s now entering his age-39 season and is coming off a rough campaign. He hit just .242/.288/.360 last year for a wRC+ of 85, indicating he was 15% worse than the league average hitter.

If Gurriel continues to linger on the market, the Marlins could potentially contact other first base options. The free agent market still features other bounceback candidates like Miguel Sanó and Mike Moustakas.

Marlins’ Bullpen Generating Trade Interest

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Just as Detroit will be receiving interest in a huge chunk of its bullpen, Miami figures to have several relievers on the block. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro tweets that the Fish have gotten interest on lefties Tanner Scott and Steven Okert as well as right-handers Dylan Floro and Anthony Bass.

The 28-year-old Scott surely has the highest price tag, as he’s leading the club with 14 saves and has long tantalized scouts with a blistering fastball and power slider, dating back to his time in Baltimore. He’s averaged 96.8 mph on that heater this season and ramped up the usage of his slider to a career-high 66%. The result is a career-best 31.8% strikeout rate, a huge 15.3% swinging-strike rate and a 31.3% chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone.

Scott’s command — or lack thereof — is the elephant in the room. The southpaw has walked 15.3% of his opponents this season, plunked three hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. That’s been par for the course throughout Scott’s career, evidenced by a bloated 14% walk rate. Were Scott’s command even average or just slightly below-average, his overpowering fastball/slider blend could make him one of the sport’s most dominant relievers. That hasn’t been the case, however, which is surely why the Marlins were able to acquire both Scott and Cole Sulser from the Orioles this past offseason in exchange for a Competitive Balance draft pick (Round B) and a pair of low-level minor leaguers.

It was still a surprising return for a player with Scott’s stuff, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2024 season. That remaining control will obviously appeal to clubs but also make the asking price on him fairly steep. The Marlins are known to be looking for immediate offensive upgrades in trade returns, and Scott’s two-plus seasons of control could embolden them to do so when teams call about the power-armed lefty.

Okert, meanwhile, has been a great find for the Fish. The 31-year-old signed a minor league deal after spending nine years in the Giants organization and never establishing himself in their bullpen. He’s been great in Miami dating back to 2021 however, working to a combined 2.74 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate  and 10.9% walk rate. Okert doesn’t have Scott’s power stuff and has also been homer-prone, but the late nature of his breakout means he can be controlled another five seasons.

Both Floro and Bass are closer to free agency and, as such, seem likelier to change hands. The 31-year-old Floro is earning $3MM this season and has pitched to a 3.49 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates (5.3% and 50%, respectively). He’s excelled at keeping the ball in the yard throughout his career with the Rays, Cubs, Dodgers and now Marlins, yielding just 0.5 homers per nine frames.

Floro isn’t without red flags, though. He’s never been an especially hard thrower but has seen his average heater drop from 93.8 mph in 2021 to 91.8 mph in 2022. And after posting one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the Majors from 2016-21 (31.5%), he’s yielded a 41.4% hard-hit rate this season along with a career-high 88.7 mph average exit velocity (the latter of which is right in line with the league average, to be fair).

Of the whole group, Bass seems the best bet to go. The 34-year-old signed a two-year, $5MM contract with Miami prior to the 2021 season and posted a solid but unremarkable 3.82 ERA through 61 1/3 innings in his first season in South Florida. This year, however, Bass is toting a pristine 1.41 ERA with a career-high 26% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.8% walk rate. Like Scott, he’s throwing his slider at a career-high rate (56%) and has enjoyed terrific results thanks to the change.

Bass is also controlled for the 2023 season by virtue of an eminently reasonable $3MM club option. That could be good reason for the Marlins to hang onto him, as they’re intent on competing in the near future, but there’s some risk in hanging onto a reliever for what would be his age-35 season as well.

Any of the relievers here could make sense as trade candidates on their own, but it’s also intriguing to think about the possibility of them being packaged as part of a larger deal. Pairing any of the four together would be appealing for a contender seeking bullpen help (which applies to pretty much every contender), and the Marlins could also add a bullpen arm to a package if they’re trying to coax out an even bigger return for a pitcher such as Pablo Lopez, on whom they’re reportedly at least listening to offers.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

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The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Orioles Acquire Yaqui Rivera From Marlins

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The Orioles announced they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Yaqui Rivera from the Marlins. He’s the player to be named later in the April deal that sent relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott to South Florida.

Rivera, 18, was a recent signee of Miami’s out of the Dominican Republic. He made his professional debut last season with a few outings in complex ball and nine starts in the Dominican Summer League. Rivera, who has never appeared on an organizational prospects list at FanGraphs or Baseball America, missed some bats but also had an elevated walk rate — unsurprising tendencies for a pitcher so young.

The 6’2″ hurler is one of three young players the O’s added to the organization in the deal. Baltimore also picked up left-hander Antonio Velez, who has struggled with home runs over his first eight outings in Double-A this year, and low minors outfielder Kevin Guerrero. The 25-year-old Velez is certainly the most likely of the trio to make any kind of near-term impact in spite of his early struggles in Bowie; Guerrero and Rivera are long-term developmental fliers.

Sulser and Scott have each stepped into the big league bullpen in Miami, with the former assuming some high-leverage opportunities. It’s been a fairly similar start to the season for both, who each have quality swing-and-miss numbers but have struggled with control. Sulser owns a 4.50 ERA through 18 innings, and he’s seen his fastball velocity drop nearly two ticks on average relative to last season. Scott remains among the harder left-handed throwers in the game, but he’s dealt with strike-throwing issues throughout his career. He has a 5.40 ERA in 18 1/3 frames with the Fish.

Marlins Acquire Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser From Orioles

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8:56PM: Both teams have officially announced the trade.  To clear 40-man roster space for Scott and Sulser, the Marlins have designated left-hander Nick Neidert for assignment and placed lefty Sean Guenther on the 60-day injured list.  MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reported Friday that Guenther was dealing with an arm injury that may require surgery.

5:52PM: The Marlins have acquired left-hander Tanner Scott and right-hander Cole Sulser from the Orioles.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported (Twitter links) Scott’s inclusion in the deal, while The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported that Sulser had also been dealt.  Feinsand reports that the Orioles will receive prospects Antonio Velez and Kevin Guerrero, a player to be named later, and the Marlins’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B of this summer’s amateur draft.

The bullpen was known to be a target area for Miami, and the Fish have now bolstered their relief core with a pair of experienced arms.  In Sulser, the Marlins have also found a new closer candidate, as Sulser saved eight games with Baltimore last season.  While the Marlins aren’t expected to have a full-time closer, there is a vacancy for the ninth inning, as Dylan Floro is expected to start the season on the injured list.

Sulser is a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until he was 29, so he is still controlled through the 2025 season even though he only recently celebrated his 32nd birthday.  Injuries played a factor in Sulser’s late start, as he underwent two Tommy John surgeries (one in college, and the other in 2015 when he was pitching in Cleveland’s farm system).  He finally surfaced in the majors with the Rays in 2019, and then came to Baltimore on a waiver claim at the end of the 2019 season.

After posting a 5.56 ERA over 22 2/3 innings in 2020, Sulser broke out with a 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 relief innings for Baltimore last season.  Though his 8.9% walk rate ranked only in the 40th percentile of all pitchers (as per Statcast), Sulser’s 28.4% strikeout rate was well above average, and fit in the high strikeout totals he has posted during his minor league career.

Scott also hasn’t had much trouble missing bats, but the southpaw’s control issues have resulted in some inconsistent numbers over 156 Major League innings.  Scott has an ungainly 13.6% walk rate during his MLB career, which is a big reason why he has posted only a 4.73 ERA with the Orioles despite a 50.1% grounder rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate.

Between those numbers, Scott’s mid-90s fastball, and his three remaining years of arbitration control (Scott is set to earn $1.05MM this season after avoiding arbitration with the O’s), it is easy to see why Scott has drawn his share of trade buzz over the years.  As well, Sulser’s name also surfaced in trade rumors earlier this year, as the rebuilding Orioles continue to be open for business on pretty much everyone on the roster.

In fact, the Marlins themselves swung another notable bullpen trade with the O’s back in August 2020, picking up Richard Bleier.  Sulser and Bleier will now join Anthony Bass and Anthony Bender as Miami’s top save candidates, with Floro joining the mix when he returns to action.  It is quite possible more names might end up emerging as closer possibilities for manager Don Mattingly, or one of those relievers might pitch well enough to firmly establish themselves as the top choice for the ninth inning.

From Baltimore’s perspective, the CBR-B draft pick may be the biggest score of the trade return.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are two separate draft rounds that respectively take place after the first round and second round of the draft, with 15 teams (all falling within the bottom 10 of market or revenue size) getting a bonus pick in one of the two rounds.  For the 2022 draft, the Marlins were selected into CBR-B and had the first pick of that round.  As it so happens, Baltimore will now be picking first in both Competitive Balance Rounds, as the O’s also have the first selection of CBR-A.  The Competitive Balance picks are the only draft selections that are allowed to be traded.

Baseball America ranked Guerrero 29th and Velez 34th on their most recent list of the Marlins’ top 40 prospects.  Guerrero is a 17-year-old outfielder who was part of the 2020-21 international signing class, and he hit .260/.373/.298 in 159 PA this past summer with the Marlins’ Dominican Summer League squad.  BA’s scouting report describes him as something of a work in progress, as his “future will be based around the way his body develops,” given that Guerrero is already 6’3″ but only 165 pounds.

Velez is a Miami native who wasn’t drafted coming out of Florida State, owing to the shortened nature of the 2020 draft.  Baseball America credited Velez as having the best changeup and best control of any pitcher in the Marlins’ farm system, which is no small achievement given all of the high-profile young arms in Miami’s minor league ranks.  In addition to that quality changeup, Velez’s “low-90s fastball is amplified by vertical break that borders on double-plus.”

While the Orioles continue to bolster their minor league ranks, today’s trade marks yet another move that depletes the MLB roster.  Sulser was tentatively set to act as Baltimore’s closer, and since Scott was also in the mix for save chances, it is now an open question as to who will end up getting ninth-inning duties.  Paul Fry, Jorge Lopez, and Dillon Tate look like the next men up on the depth chart, though any number of pitchers could be cycled through depending on performance, shifting roles, injuries, and perhaps more trades.

Orioles Select Pat Valaika

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The Orioles announced they’ve selected infielder Pat Valaika back to the big league roster. Baltimore also recalled righty Marcos Diplán from Triple-A Norfolk. Left-hander Tanner Scott has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a left knee sprain, while utilityman Jorge Mateo was placed on the 60-day IL due to right lumbar inflammation.

Valaika has logged substantial big league action with the O’s in each of the last two seasons. He flashed some intriguing power potential last year, popping eight home runs in 150 plate appearances en route to a solid .277/.315/.475 showing. But he struggled badly over a slightly longer look this year, posting a .192/.251/.280 line over 212 trips to the dish. He was designated for assignment and passed through outright waivers last month. Valaika will be eligible for arbitration this offseason, but given his disappointing season, he looks like a non-tender candidate.

Baltimore grabbed Mateo off waivers from the Padres last month, with the rebuilding O’s in a far better position than the win-now Padres to give regular playing time to the former top prospect. (Mateo is out of minor league option years, so he’d spent much of his San Diego tenure in a bench role). The 26-year-old showed fairly well in his look with the Orioles, hitting .280/.328/.421 with a pair of homers and five stolen bases over 116 plate appearances. His season comes to a premature end because of the injury, but he’s seemingly done enough to warrant a spot on Baltimore’s 40-man roster over the upcoming offseason.

Unlike Mateo, Scott isn’t officially ruled out for the rest of the year by his IL placement. Nevertheless, manager Brandon Hyde suggested to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) the hard-throwing reliever is unlikely to make it back this season. Scott appeared in 62 games and tossed 54 innings of 5.17 ERA ball, striking out a solid 27.9% of opponents but issuing walks at an elevated 14.7% clip. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason.

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