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Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan

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The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.

Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.

Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.

Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.

Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.

None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.

Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.

Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Braves non-tendered outfielder Ramón Laureano, left-hander Ray Kerr, as well as right-handers Griffin Canning, Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas, which you can read more about here.
  • The Brewers parted ways with lefty reliever Hoby Milner, who’d been projected at $2.7MM for his final arbitration season. The typically reliable southpaw was tagged for a 4.73 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered right-hander Adam Kloffenstein, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link). The righty only just made his major league debut in 2024 and was not yet arb-eligible. He immediately becomes a free agent without being exposed to waivers.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Nick Madrigal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). Madrigal has hit .251/.304/.312 for a 76 wRC+ over the last three seasons with the Cubs and was projected for a $1.9MM salary next year. Chicago also announced they non-tendered outfielder Mike Tauchman, which comes as a bit of a surprise after he reached base at a .357 clip this year. Patrick Wisdom, Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis and Trey Wingenter — all of whom were designated for assignment earlier this week — were also dropped.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered lefty reliever Brandon Hughes, per a club announcement. The 28-year-old southpaw allowed 16 runs over 17 2/3 big league innings this year. He wasn’t eligible for arbitration but would’ve occupied a 40-man roster spot if offered a contract.
  • The Dodgers are non-tendering right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. and left-hander Zach Logue, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Both pitchers are still in their pre-arbitration years, so this was more about the Dodgers sending them to free agency without exposing them to waivers, as opposed to cost cutting. Perhaps the club will look to re-sign them on minor league deals.
  • The Giants only made two non-tenders, parting with lefty Ethan Small and righty Kai-Wei Teng. Teng had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Small, who was in his pre-arbitration years, spent the season in the minors or on the injured list.
  • The Marlins had zero non-tenders. They offered contracts to everyone on the 40-man roster.
  • The Mets dropped a trio of players from the 40-man roster: relievers Grant Hartwig and Alex Young and outfield prospect Alex Ramirez. Young was the only member of that group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The southpaw pitched well in a depth role, but the Mets didn’t want to keep him around at a $1.4MM projection. Hartwig made four appearances this year, while the 21-year-old Ramirez (a former top prospect) had a .210/.291/.299 showing in Double-A.
  • The Nationals announced that they have non-tendered right-hander Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, which you can read more about here.
  • The Padres dropped four players from the roster: righties Luis Patino and Logan Gillaspie, outfielder Bryce Johnson and infielder Mason McCoy. Patino, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, was the only member of the group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The other three cuts are simply about roster maintenance. The Padres could try to bring anyone from that group back on minor league deals.
  • The Phillies will not be tendering a contract to outfielder Austin Hays, which MLBTR covered earlier today.
  • The Pirates are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com (Bluesky link). They are also non-tendering right-hander Hunter Stratton, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Joe was projected for a salary of $3.2MM next year and De La Cruz $4MM. Stratton had not yet qualified for arbitration. Joe has been around league average at the plate in his career but doing more damage against lefties. De La Cruz has hit .253/.297/.407 in his career for a wRC+ of 90. Startton had a 3.58 ERA this year but his season was ended by knee surgery, giving him an uncertain path forward.
  • The Reds have non-tendered right-hander Ian Gibaut, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Bluesky link). The righty was projected for a salary of $800K. He spent the vast majority of 2024 on the injured list due to arm trouble and only made two appearances on the season.
  • The Rockies moved on from starter Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers, which MLBTR covered here.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles, Tanner Rainey

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Victor Robles and right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, the team announced. Robles, 26, was eligible for his final year of arbitration, while Rainey, 30, will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter.

Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.

Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.

Nationals Activate Tanner Rainey From 60-Day IL

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The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club has activated right-hander Tanner Rainey from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding moves, left-hander Robert Garcia was placed on the paternity list, opening up a spot on the club’s active roster, while catcher Riley Adams was transferred to the 60-day IL to clear space on the 40-man roster.

The move sets Rainey, 30, up for his 2023 season debut. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery last August and has been working his way back ever since, but prior to his injury had posted solid numbers out of the Washington bullpen in 2022 with a 3.30 ERA and 4.18 FIP while racking up 12 saves in 30 innings of work. Since being traded from Cincinnati to the Nationals prior to the 2019 season, Rainey has largely been a quality bullpen arm. While his 4.42 ERA (97 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP as a National leave something to be desired, the mediocre career numbers can be attributed entirely to a brutal 2021 campaign that saw Rainey post a ghastly 7.39 ERA and 5.63 FIP in 38 appearances. Across his other three years in the majors with the Nationals, he’s posted ERAs below 4.00.

That being said, Rainey’s strong results in 2019, 2020, and 2022 hide serious control issues. He’s walked a whopping 15.5% of batters faced in his big league career, with figures north of 10% in every season except for the shortened 2020 campaign. Rainey also runs into further trouble as a flyball pitcher (career 36.1% groundball rate) who allows home runs at an elevated rate, with 17.2% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard throughout his career. Fortunately, Rainey manages to make up for his lackluster walk rates and home run suppression numbers with tantalizing raw stuff, as demonstrated by his career strikeout rate of 31.2%, including an eye-popping 42.7% figure in 20 1/3 innings of work during the shortened 2020 campaign.

Given the fact that Washington can control Rainey via arbitration through the end of the 2025 season, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would want to see Rainey in action before the offseason as they look to decide whether or not to tend him a contract, which could include a slight raise over this year’s $1.5MM salary. Given Rainey’s past success and high strikeout totals, the right-hander should have a chance to factor into the club’s late inning mix next season if he remains with the club throughout the offseason.

As for Garcia, the rookie southpaw’s placement on the paternity list likely brings his season to an end. The 27-year-old had a solid debut campaign split between the Marlins and the Nationals this year, with a 3.66 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and a 26.6% strikeout rate in 32 innings of work. Adams’s season ended in hamate surgery earlier this month, so the move to the 60-day IL is nothing more than procedural for the young catcher, who slashed an impressive .273/.331/.476 in 44 games in the majors this year.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

____________________________

The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

Nationals Select Four Players

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The Nationals have announced their Opening Day roster, revealing within that they’ve selected the contracts of four non-roster invitees to spring training: righty Chad Kuhl, lefty Anthony Banda, infielder Michael Chavis and right-hander Hobie Harris. In order to make room on the roster, the Nats placed right-handers Cade Cavalli, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Rainey and Victor Arano on the 60-day injured list. Infielder Carter Kieboom and catcher Israel Pineda were placed on the 10-day IL with a right shoulder impingement and fractured finger, respectively.

Kuhl was widely expected to claim a spot in the rotation following the unfortunate news that Cavalli, Washington’s top pitching prospect, would miss the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery. The veteran Kuhl, 30, tossed 17 2/3 innings this spring, allowing 10 runs on 18 hits and seven walks with 15 strikeouts along the way.

Kuhl spent the 2022 season in Colorado, getting out to a strong three-month start that he capped off with a shutout of the Dodgers at Coors  Field. That gem dropped his ERA to 3.49, but Kuhl was clobbered for 29 runs in 25 2/3 innings over his next six starts before a hip strain sent him to the injured list. He was hit hard upon returning three weeks later, and the Rox put him back on the injured list with what proved to be a season-ending triceps strain. Clearly not pitching at 100% down the stretch, Kuhl was shelled for 57 runs in his final 59 2/3 innings, ballooning his ERA to 5.72. Prior to that season, he tossed 439 2/3 innings over several seasons in Pittsburgh, logging a much more respectable 4.44 ERA.

Banda, 29, once ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects but hasn’t yet established himself as a viable big leaguer in parts of six MLB campaigns. He’s had some brief success with the 2018 Rays and 2021 Pirates, but overall the journeyman southpaw carries a 5.64 ERA in 111 2/3 Major League innings. He yielded seven runs on seven hits and five walks in 11 spring innings. Despite that unsightly 5.64 ERA, Banda likely impressed the Nats by striking out 14 of 46 batters (30.4%). He’ll open the season as the lone lefty in manager Dave Martinez’s bullpen.

The 27-year-old Chavis was the Red Sox’ first-round pick in 2014 and, like Banda, once ranked among the game’s top 100 farmhands. He had an encouraging rookie season, batting .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in just 382 plate appearances, but in 708 MLB plate appearances since that time he’s mustered only a .229/.263/.388 output with a concerning 30.8% strikeout rate. He’s been primarily a first baseman, but Chavis has experience at second base, third base and in the outfield corners. He’ll be a righty bat off Martinez’s bench.

Harris’ selection to the roster was announced earlier in the week by his agent, Matt Gaeta. It caps an eight-year minor league grind for the former Yankees 31st-rounder, who held opponents to one run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in 10 innings this spring. Harris spent the 2022 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club, where he pitched to a 2.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate. He’s likely ticketed for a middle-relief role early in the year.

None of the 60-day IL placements come as a major surprise. Cavalli’s Tommy John surgery was announced earlier in camp, as was Strasburg’s setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet surgery. A timetable for the 2019 World Series MVP remains unclear. Rainey had Tommy John surgery last August, so he was never going to be an option until late in the season, at best. Arano is the only mild surprise of the bunch, but the Nats announced midway through the month that he was dealing with a shoulder impingement and would be shut down for at least 10 days. The Nats are now classifying the injury as a strain, and no timetable for his return has been provided.

NL East Notes: Wright, Meneses, Rainey, Sosa

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Even if Kyle Wright is slightly behind in his throwing schedule, Atlanta is hoping he won’t have to start the regular season on the injured list, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The right-hander produced comfortably his best season to date last year, breaking out after owning a combined 6.56 ERA. over the previous four seasons to go 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings.

The 27-year-old’s off-season prep was halted for three weeks in January following a cortisone injection in his right shoulder. That’s put him behind schedule as spring training begins, and Wright’s unlikely to make any starts for Atlanta over the first few weeks of Grapefruit League action in Florida. As Bowman reports, the hope is he’ll be able to increase his pitch count during the back half of spring training to a point where he can throw around 75 pitches in his regular season debut. That would probably mean he’d miss Atlanta’s opening series in Washington, instead targeting the trip to St Louis as a possible season debut.

Here’s some more notes from around the National League East:

  • The Nationals intend to use 2022 breakout star Joey Meneses in a utility role this season. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that Meneses would play “a lot of a little bit of everywhere.” That’ll mean he sees time at first base, left field and DH on the rebuilding Nats. As a 30-year-old rookie, Meneses slashed .324/.367/.563 with 13 home runs across 240 plate appearances last season, a small bright spot in a disappointing campaign for Washington. He was certainly helped by a .371 BABIP, but nonetheless it was an impressive debut stint in the big leagues for a player who toiled away for 11 years for reaching the bigs.
  • Sticking with the Nats for now, and reliever Tanner Rainey is targeting a return at the 12-month mark since his Tommy John surgery. As Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports, Rainey is in the third week of his throwing program, and a return a year after surgery would have him slated to be back on the mound in the first week of August. Of course, there’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and with the Nats in the midst of a rebuild they’d certainly be unlikely to rush him back, but it’s an encouraging sign for the 30-year-old, who worked to a 3.30 ERA over 30 innings last season before going down.
  • Phillies infielder Edmundo Sosa is working on learning center field, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The plan is for the Phillies to get Sosa some center field reps during spring training in the hope he’ll be in a position for that to be an option during the regular season. Sosa has appeared in all of 3 1/3 innings in the outfield in his career, but the bulk of his appearances for the Cardinals and Phillies have come in the middle infield spots. After slashing .227/.275/.369 with two home runs, Sosa projects as an infield option on the bench in 2023, with Trea Turner and Bryson Stott manning the positions full time. Veteran Josh Harrison is also projected as a bench option that can cover the infield positions, so adding center field to Sosa’s repertoire would certainly help to deepen the bench options available to manager Rob Thomson.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Nationals, Tanner Rainey Avoid Arbitration

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3:47pm: Rainey’s deal is worth $1.5MM, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.

3:45pm: The Nationals announced that they have agreed to terms on a one-year major league contract with right-hander Tanner Rainey, avoiding arbitration. The financial elements of the deal have not been reported yet.

Rainey, who turns 30 this weekend, was acquired from the Reds prior to the 2019 season and has since established himself as one of the club’s better relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s made 139 appearances with a 4.42 ERA, though that number is inflated by a ghastly 7.39 showing in 2021. He’s kept his ERA under 4.00 in the other three seasons of that timeframe. He has walked 14.6% of batters faced over those four seasons, which is certainly quite high, but he’s also struck out an excellent 32.4% of them.

Rainey was showing positive signs in the control department in 2022, as his walk rate was down to 10.2%, his lowest such mark in a full season. Unfortunately, his progress was halted by a UCL sprain this summer, which led to Tommy John surgery in August. He will therefore miss most or perhaps even all of the 2023 season while rehabbing.

Rainey first reached arbitration eligibility one year ago as a Super Two player. He and the Nats agreed to a salary of $860K for 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $1.5MM in his second of four arbitration years. Though it’s possible he’ll miss the majority of the next season, the Nats will be able to retain him via arbitration for two seasons after that.

Tanner Rainey Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Nationals reliever Tanner Rainey underwent Tommy John surgery this afternoon, the club informed reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). It’s a predictable development after the hard-throwing reliever landed on the 60-day injured list with a UCL sprain in his elbow last month.

Acquired from the Reds heading into the 2019 season, Rainey has been one of Washington’s better relievers over the past couple years. He’s racked up huge strikeout and swinging strike numbers commensurate with a fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can get into the triple digits. Rainey’s control has wavered, but his high-octane arsenal has led manager Dave Martinez to progressively give him higher-leverage work the past three seasons.

This season’s 28.1% strikeout percentage was one of the lower rates of Rainey’s career, but it’s still a few points north of the league average. He’d trimmed his walk rate to a more manageable 10.2% after issuing free passes at a massive 16.6% clip last year, and he carried a 3.30 ERA through 30 innings before the injury. The rebuilding Nationals seemed likely to shop Rainey in advance of the trade deadline, but the elbow injury scuttled those plans.

Rainey will miss most or all of the 2023 campaign rehabbing, with Tommy John recoveries often taking 14-plus months. It’s a disappointing blow for the 29-year-old. Rainey has surpassed three years of service this year, and he’ll remain arbitration eligible through the 2025 campaign. He’s making $860K this year and will be in line for a small raise next winter if tendered a contract.

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