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Starling Marte

Marlins Trade Starling Marte To Athletics For Jesus Luzardo

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In a deadline-season stunner, the Athletics and Marlins have agreed to a straight-up, one-for-one swap sending outfielder Starling Marte to Oakland in exchange for left-hander Jesus Luzardo. The teams have announced the move. The Marlins are reportedly paying the entirety of the $4.57MM remaining on Marte’s $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season. Marte will be a free agent at season’s end.

Starling Marte | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The A’s haven’t been mentioned as a primary suitor for Marte, who’s previously been linked to the Giants, Astros and Yankees. That said, Marte is capable of playing all three outfield spots and would improve just about any team’s outfield mix. The 32-year-old is hitting .305/.405/.451 with four home runs, 22 steals and a career-high 11.6 percent walk rate in 275 plate appearances so far in 2021.

Marte missed time this season with a fractured rib he sustained on a diving catch in center field, but he’s been excellent when healthy, continuing what has been a generally underrated career to date. He’s a former All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner with a pair of 20-homer seasons under his belt and an overall .288/.345/.450 batting line through parts of ten Major League seasons between Pittsburgh, Arizona and Miami.

Acquiring Marte allows the A’s to trot out a regular outfield of Marte, Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano. The trade likely cuts into Stephen Piscotty’s playing time, though his right-handed bat will still be utilized against left-handed pitching. Any of Piscotty or the other three outfielders could get a turn at designated hitter against left-handed starters, given Mitch Moreland’s longstanding struggles against southpaws and generally underwhelming results so far in 2021.

More broadly, the move speaks to the fact that the Athletics view themselves as legitimate contenders with an immediate window to make a deep postseason run. Parting with Luzardo is an extraordinarily steep price to pay, but he’s struggled both in the Majors and in Triple-A this season. It’s possible the willingness to trade him is a reflection that the A’s are now questioning whether he’ll ever fulfill the potential that made him one of the top ten overall prospects in baseball a few years back. However, it’s also likely that Oakland views the forthcoming postseason run as something of a do-or-die moment.

The A’s are a perennially low-payroll club, and they’re set to have one of their largest and most expensive arbitration classes in recent memory. They’ll see each of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Frankie Montas and the aforementioned Laureano reach arbitration this winter — to say nothing of more complementary players like Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Burch Smith and J.B. Wendelken.  It’s a sizable group that the Athletics have to at least wonder about retaining, from a financial standpoint, so it makes good sense that Oakland is pushing strongly to surround that core with the best talent possible when they’re in possession of a Wild Card spot and a manageable six games back in the division.

That said, it’s still a legitimate stunner to see the 23-year-old Luzardo traded in a rental deal — even for a player as good as Marte. Luzardo was regarded as one of the five to ten best prospects in all of baseball from 2019-20, and he did little to sway that thinking when he debuted as a 21-year-old and pitched to a 3.68 ERA with a 25.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.8 walk rate through his first 71 innings.

Jesus Luzardo | Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Entering the 2021 season, Luzardo was a popular breakout pick and was viewed clear member of the A’s rotation, but it’s instead been a nightmarish season for him. The lefty posted uneven results through his first five starts of the season, looking excellent at times but also yielding five runs in two different outings. He then fractured his pinkie finger in what he called an “immature” mistake, hitting his hand on a table while playing video games just hours before a scheduled start. Luzardo spent nearly a month on the shelf and pitched poorly upon his return, serving up 11 runs in 10 innings — this time out of the bullpen.

Luzardo was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas on June 21, where he’s been stretching back out as a starter. The results have not been pretty, however. He’s pitched in eight games, tallying just 29 innings while limping to a 6.87 ERA with uncharacteristically poor strikeout (19.3) and walk (11.1) percentages. Las Vegas is an extremely hitter-friendly setting, but it’s impossible to simply chalk struggles of that magnitude up to a difficult environment.

The trade brings Luzardo a perhaps needed change of scenery and represents a homecoming, as the lefty attended high school in the Miami area. It’s fair to view him as something of a project, given this year’s struggles, but even a few months ago the notion of trading Luzardo for a rental player would have seemed utterly preposterous. It’s easy to see why the Marlins jumped at the chance to acquire him, even if they already have an impressive stockpile of young pitching.

In fact, that could well be part of a broader overall gambit. The Marlins have reportedly been eyeing long-term options in center field and at catcher, and adding Luzardo to a core group that already includes Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Elieser Hernandez, Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and several other intriguing arms gives the Fish one of the deepest stocks of controllable, near-MLB pitching talent in all of baseball. The Marlins could well look to parlay some of that wealth of pitching depth into a new, controllable option at a position of need — as they did a couple years back when they surprisingly shipped then-rookie right-hander Zac Gallen to the D-backs in exchange for infielder Jazz Chisholm.

Setting aside the initial, jarring reaction to a low-budget club acquiring a premium rental in exchange for a pitcher who entered the year as a top 10 prospect in all of MLB — there’s some sense to both sides of the equation. The A’s are fortifying their roster in what could be their last run at the postseason with this iteration of their core. Luzardo has struggled badly in 2021, but acquiring a player with his raw talent in a rental swap is too tantalizing to pass up for a club in their position. Not only does Luzardo possess a front-of-the-rotation ceiling, but his demotion to Triple-A has pushed his free agency back to the 2026-27 offseason, at the earliest.

Today’s trade sets the stage for additional acquisitions by both parties. The A’s aren’t spending any money on Marte, meaning they should still have some resources with which to work. The Marlins’ crop of arms is even deeper now, and that allows GM Kim Ng and her team to more aggressively explore the market for controllable young hitters. It’s as close to a blockbuster swap as you’ll see in a straight one-for-one flip, but it’s unlikely this is the final piece of the deadline puzzle for either team.

Craig Mish of the Miami Herald broke the news (via Twitter) that the A’s were close to a deal for Marte. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported a deal had been reached. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that Luzardo would go the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported on the financial component of the swap (Twitter links).

Marlins Shopping Marte, Duvall, Relievers

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The Marlins are “working on moving” Starling Marte, Adam Duvall and multiple relievers, according to Peter Gammons of The Athletic.

The fact that the team is selling is not surprising. They have been firmly in rebuild mode for years, in spite of 2020’s surprise foray into the expanded postseason. They currently have a record of 43-57, sitting in the basement of the NL East with 0% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.

Marte’s departure has seemed inevitable since he and the team halted extension talks a week ago. Since that time, he’s been connected to the Astros, Phillies, Yankees and Giants. That popularity isn’t surprising, given Marte’s track record and excellent production in 2021. He currently sports a wRC+ of 139, which is above his previous career high of 132, set back in 2014. When combined with his defensive production, Marte has already accrued 3.2 fWAR in just 63 games this year. He is still owed approximately $4.7MM of his $12.5MM salary this year, which could have luxury tax implications for any team that acquires him. Though Miami could potentially eat some of that in order to get a better prospect return.

Duvall, like Marte, is also an impending free agent, though he does have a mutual option for 2022. Although he can’t match Marte’s production, he could still be quite useful, especially with his bat. Duvall’s 22 home runs have been somewhat offset by a high strikeout rate of 31.6%, but he’s still produced a wRC+ of 107 on the season thus far. His $2MM salary also makes him much more affordable than Marte.

Gammons’ tweet implies that the Reds and perhaps others inquired on Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas, but were rebuffed. General manager Kim Ng has previously intimated that the team would hold onto Rojas, who is 182 plate appearances away from his $5.5MM option vesting for 2022.

As for the bullpen, the Marlins should have plenty of options to cash in their veteran relievers for prospects to help their rebuild. Yimi Garcia is an impending free agent and is playing on a modest salary of $1.9MM. Over 36 1/3 innings, he has a 3.47 ERA and 15 saves. Ross Detwiler is also heading towards free agency in a few months. His 6.25 ERA may be unsightly, but he’s left-handed, striking out 26.1% of batters and is owed only about $300K for the remainder of the year. Another lefty, Richard Bleier, is having an even better season, with an ERA of 2.82. His strikeout rate of 20.3% is actually below average, but represents a career high for the groundball specialist. He’s playing on a salary of $1.425MM and has one year of arbitration control remaining. Anthony Bass could also be of interest to some clubs. The 33-year-old righty has a 3.79 ERA this season and is making a modest $1MM this year. He also comes with two more years of potential control, being under contract for $3MM in 2022 and a $3MM club option for 2023.

 

Dombrowski: Phillies Will “Be Aggressive” As Trade Deadline Approaches

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5:22PM: Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other reporters today, reiterating that the team will “be aggressive” in its pursuit of roster help, and the Phillies are “kind of open to anything” in regards to adding pieces to the roster.

Unless “we got crushed seven games in a row, and the Mets won seven games in a row” before Friday’s trade deadline, Dombrowski said that the Phillies are planning to be buyers.  “The one thing I can safely say is we’re not in a position where we’re looking to move players,” the PBO said.  “That is not where we are.  We’re looking to add players to our club, if we can.”

Dombrowski declined to publicly comment on whether or not Phillies ownership was willing to let the team cross the $210MM luxury tax threshold, only saying that “ownership here is very supportive of trying to win.”  In terms of trades, Dombrowski didn’t rule out the addition of rental players, but “would not anticipate” that the Phillies would move top prospects for such short-term upgrades.

8:52AM: Though the Phillies are sporting a -12 run differential on the year, they may represent the most viable threat to the Mets division lead in the National League East. The Nationals are 3-7 in their last ten, now seven games behind the Mets, and the cavalry may not be coming. The Braves know they’ll be without their biggest star, and despite having the best run differential in the division right now at +26, it’s hard to consider Atlanta as a viable threat without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Marlins are 41-57, 12 games out, and they’re in full-on sell mode.

That leaves the Phillies. Though they’re exactly .500 at 48-48, that leaves them right where they’ve been for most of the Bryce Harper era. This team didn’t re-sign J.T. Realmuto and hire Dave Dombrowski to run the front office just to stand pat, however. Not only are rival executives expecting the Phillies to be aggressive this trade deadline, but they think the Phillies will be willing to exceed the luxury tax, if that’s what it takes to find the right upgrades, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

As for what the Phillies might be pursuing, there are plenty of avenues to improve the roster. Heyman suggests they could use a starter, multiple relievers and a centerfielder. Alec Bohm has not been good at third base (-0.1 fWAR), but they’re not close to moving on from the 25-year-old former top prospect.

The bullpen’s shortcomings have been thoroughly noted, and it now seems a near certainty that they’ll add at least one bullpen arm. The question is whether they’ll shell out for a premium arm like the Cubs’ Craig Kimbrel, or if they’ll target cheaper options like the Pirates’ Richard Rodriguez or Ian Kennedy of the Rangers.

They could aim even lower and shop in the non-premium section of opposing bullpens where there are plenty of viable options for the right price: the Cubs’ Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin, the Twins’ Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Duffey, or Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, and Yimi Garcia of the Marlins are a few names worth checking in on.That said, if there’s any team that might look for a fire-tested closer to take the reins, Philly would be it.

In center, Starling Marte would be the obvious target, though it’s unclear how willing the Marlins are to move him within the division — nor is it clear if the Phillies have what Miami GM Kim Ng desires in a return package. For starters, the Marlins are seeking a long-term replacement for Marte in center, per Craig Mish of the Swings and Mishes podcast. That’s going to slow trade discussions, as most teams will balk at moving a younger, cheaper option in center, especially if the Marlins are prioritizing near ML-ready prospects.

The Phillies do have some centerfield prospects they could dangle, such as Simon Muzziotti, their 10th-ranked prospect by Fangraphs, Mickey Moniak, their 8th-ranked prospect, or Johan Rojas, their 4th-ranked prospect. Of the three, Muzziotti probably comes closest to starting the conversation for Marte.

None of the three are blue-chippers, however, and only Moniak has advanced beyond High-A. Moniak, of course, was the former No. 1 overall draft pick,but he’s fallen down prospect charts since his selection in the 2016 draft. Baseball America calls him “a fourth or fifth outfielder,” and he wouldn’t likely be viewed as a centerpiece in a Marte deal.

Without a ton of options on the market, Philly might need to stick with their in-house options. Odubel Herrera has returned to action after missing all of 2020, but he’s rocking just an 86 wRC+. Travis Jankowski’s been a revelation through 68 plate appearances, though the 30-year-old was a 76 wRC+ hitter through 994 plate appearances prior to this season. The fact remains that outside of Marte, there aren’t a ton of available centerfielders on the market.

The Phillies might have an easier time upgrading their pitching staff, especially given the low bar. Beyond the bullpen, Philadelphia needs more for the rotation, though Dombrowski hasn’t exactly succeeded in that regard thus far, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Offseason additions Matt Moore and Chase Anderson have posted -0.1 fWAR apiece while earning a combined $7MM.

Philly starters have a 4.21 ERA, which ranks 21st in the Majors overall, though they’re 12th by the measure of a 3.97 combined FIP. They rank 10th overall in innings pitched. Still, they could conceivably find upgrades for 60 percent of the rotation, given the uncertain track records of Vince Velasquez and rookie Spencer Howard. It’s unlikely they’ll find three starters, but it’s also hard to reason Dombrowski coming away from the trade deadline without any new arms in the rotation.

Cole Hamels has been a popular name of late, and it would certainly be fun to see the 37-year-old back in a Phillies uniform. He also comes with the added benefit of not costing prospects. Hamels alone won’t be enough, but there’s not much risk in seeing if he can upgrade Moore’s spot in the rotation.

Giants Interested In Starling Marte

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The Giants are a “key” team to watch as the Marlins market center fielder Starling Marte in the coming weeks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Miami and Marte recently halted extension talks, and Mish now adds that the team balked at guaranteeing the 32-year-old Marte a fourth year on the contract.

Giants center fielders, buoyed by Steven Duggar’s recent hot streak, are hitting .262/.337/.420 on the season, but Duggar’s .398 average on balls in play and 31.8 percent strikeout rate point to some likely regression on the horizon. Left field has actually been a bigger issue, as the Giants have put together a collective .219/.295/.394 batting line from that position. Those struggles have come in large part due to Alex Dickerson, who could stand to lose some playing time in the event of an acquisition of Marte or another outfielder.

Marte, a free agent at season’s end, is earning $12.5MM this season and is still owed about $5MM of that sum through season’s end ($4.37MM from the point of the deadline). He’s hitting .288/.389/.447 with a career-best 11.8 percent walk rate, seven homers and 19 stolen bases through 245 plate appearances so far in 2021. He missed about five weeks with a fractured rib earlier in the season but has looked healthy and productive since returning at the end of May.

From a payroll vantage point, the Giants needn’t have any concerns acquiring Marte or nearly any other player. San Francisco has about $151MM on the books for 2021 and only about $158MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, leaving them miles from the $210MM barrier. This is also an ownership group that has, in the past, given the green light to payrolls in excess of $200MM, so there’s ample room to take on salary in any deal.

The Giants have a solid farm system, though when we’re talking about one rental player, a deep stock of minor league prospects isn’t required anyhow. Mish suggests that top outfield prospect Heliot Ramos, in particular, is of interest to the Marlins — but that’d be a rather steep price to pay for a Marte rental. The Marlins have some relievers who could pique the Giants’ interest, though; Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt quite familiar with former Dodgers Yimi Garcia and Dylan Floro from his days in the Los Angeles front office, for instance.

Miami is also deep in young starting pitching. For a Giants club that could see nearly all of its rotation reach free agency this winter — Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Sanchez are all free agents — the Marlins and their impressive crop of young starting pitching seem like a strong trade partner.

Because of the lack of center fielders on the market, the Giants will have plenty of competition for Marte. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, the Phillies and the Astros, and there are several other contenders who could look for help in center field — or just the outfield in general. Marte is certainly a capable defender in center, but he’d fit nicely in a corner for a team looking to more generally upgrade its lineup. The Padres are reportedly looking into some upgrades in right field. The Mets have been linked to center field help throughout the season, and the White Sox have been hit hard with outfield injuries, too. The Giants are as strong a fit as anyone, but the competition will be significant.

Latest On Yankees’ Search For Outfield Help

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The Yankees’ recent pair of wins against the division-leading Red Sox helped to keep their postseason hopes alive, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes that they’re looking for adding outfield help as the trade deadline approaches. Specifically, the Yankees would like to acquire someone who can handle center field.

Center field is an obvious, glaring need in the Bronx. Yankees center fielders are hitting just .183/.290/.309 on the season, and the resulting 70 wRC+ ranks 29th among the 30 MLB clubs. Aaron Hicks is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, and the subsequent cast of replacements hasn’t picked up the slack.

New York was already reported to have shown interest in Marlins center fielder Starling Marte, who is likely to be traded now that Miami’s hopes of getting him to sign an extension have been dashed. (Given the reported three years and roughly $30MM term, that should come as no surprise.) Sherman again connects the Yankees to Joey Gallo, who has some center field experience, and he adds that they’ve “wondered” about Minnesota’s Max Kepler — another strong defensive right fielder who has some experience playing center.

Marte would represent a pure rental for the Yankees — albeit an excellent one. He’s slashed at a .288/.389/.457 clip so far in 2021 while clubbing seven home runs and swiping 19 bases along the way. He’s owed about $5MM of this year’s $12.5MM salary between now and season’s end, although by the deadline, that sum would dip to about $4.37MM.

From a luxury tax standpoint, Marte is in the final year of a contract that wound up paying him $51MM over an eight-year term — an annual rate of $6.375MM. Prorating that luxury hit for the remainder of the season would mean about $2.22MM at the deadline or about $2.57MM as of today. Sherman notes that the Yankees have “about” $3MM in luxury breathing room — Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has them around $3.5MM shy of the threshold — so Marte could technically fit into the budget without taking the Yankees over the line.

Both Gallo and Kepler are imperfect fits. Gallo is the far likelier of the two to be traded and, at $6.2MM in 2021, is a near-match with Marte in terms of luxury calculations. He’d give the Yankees a much-needed left-handed bat (unlike Marte), but he’s a better defender in right field and will likely have one of the higher asking prices among viable trade chips in the coming weeks. Gallo would add another three-true-outcome type of hitter to a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walk rate and ranks ninth in homers and strikeout rate. Gallo is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.

Kepler, 28, is in the third season of a five-year, $35MM contract. He’s owed about $2.62MM through season’s end and is still owed $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023. There’s a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for the 2024 season.

Kepler missed a month with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and is batting just .207/.296/.427 in 243 plate appearances on the year. Kepler looked to be emerging from that slump with a hot few weeks after returning from the injured list in June, but he’s fallen back into an 0-for-15 skid at the plate. At his best, Kepler is an impact defender with a strong walk rate and plenty of power, as evidenced by his .252/.336/.519, 36-homer season back in 2019. The Twins probably don’t love the idea of selling low on him, and the Yankees may not want to roll the dice on a rebound for a currently struggling player anyhow.

If  anything, the mention of Kepler is interesting for the fact that it illustrates the wide net being cast by the Yankees in their search. Out-of-the-box candidates figure to emerge — particularly if the team plans to remain below the luxury threshold. Owner Hal Steinbrenner recently voiced a willingness to cross that barrier, but the Yankees’ offseason moves were all made with the idea of avoiding the tax.

Marlins, Starling Marte End Extension Talks; At Least Three Teams Interested In Trades

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Reports from earlier today indicated that Starling Marte rejected the Marlins’ offer of a three-year, $30MM contract extension, making it all the more likely that the outfielder would be dealt prior to the July 30 trade deadline.  Contract negotiations are now over between the two sides, according to The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (Twitter links), as Marte didn’t want the talks to become a distraction for him as the second half of the season progresses.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds the detail that the Marlins’ extension offer was greater than three years and $30MM, but regardless, it now seems that the team will focus on dealing Marte.  As one might expect, Marte is already drawing interest from multiple suitors, as Heyman writes that the Astros, Phillies, and Yankees are three of the teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about the former All-Star.

Marte would be an upgrade for just about any team, considering his impressive .288/.387/.443 slash line, seven home runs over 249 plate appearances this season (though Statcast hints at some regression).  In addition to his bat, the 32-year-old Marte also has 20 steals from 23 chances and he has displayed some impressive glovework in center field.

This is all music to the ears of outfield-needy teams like Houston, Philadelphia, and New York.  The Astros have gotten very solid results both offensively and defensively from Myles Straw and Chas McCormick up the middle, but there is no doubt Marte would represent a big upgrade.  For the Phillies and Yankees, center field has been a revolving door thanks to injuries.

In terms of contract, Marte is owed around $5.1MM of his original $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season.  This adds another wrinkle to the trade market, as Marte’s three known suitors are all very close to exceeding the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Marte alone could conceivably be added with a bit of maneuvering under the tax line, but that would eliminate pretty much all available payroll space for further trade needs like pitching.

Throughout the winter and into the season, the Yankees and Astros have in particular made several moves indicating that staying under the tax line (and avoiding an escalating repeater penalty) is a priority, though both Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Astros GM James Click recently stated that they would go over the CBT line in the right circumstance.  The Phils have never exceeded the luxury tax line, but owner John Middleton has said in the past that he would also be willing to make a tax payment for a difference-making addition.

An argument can certainly be made that Marte is such an addition, though it is also possible that he could be acquired in a trade that wouldn’t require any CBT overage.  The Marlins could be more willing to eat most or all of Marte’s salary if they were offered higher-caliber prospects, though then it becomes a question of just how much prospect value any of the three teams would want to surrender for a rental player.  Marte could also be included as part of a larger trade package that might see multiple players swap clubs, with perhaps a larger contract sent back Miami’s way as some kind of salary offset.

Starling Marte Reportedly Rejects Marlins’ $30MM Extension Offer

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The Marlins offered star outfielder Starling Marte a three-year, $30MM contract extension, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Marte rejected the proposal, and Nightengale writes there’s now “a great chance” the impending free agent will be traded in advance of the July 30 deadline.

It’s not especially surprising to hear Marte and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball passed on a $30MM proposal. Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported last month that Marte was seeking a three or four year deal that paid around $50MM.

Given how well Marte has played this year, that $50MM ask certainly doesn’t seem outlandish. He’s scheduled to hit free agency as the top center fielder available (excluding utilityman Chris Taylor) thanks to an impressive .286/.389/.443 line across 240 plate appearances. Marte has always been a productive player, but he’s hitting at a career-best level this year by virtue of a more patient approach. Marte’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone at the lowest rate of his career, enabling a personal-best 12.1% walk percentage. He’s making a strong rate of hard contact and barreling up a career-high 10.2% of batted balls, per Statcast, a mark that places him in the 66th percentile leaguewide.

Marte turns 33 years old in October, which will cap the length of any new deal. Still, he’s not yet shown any ill effects of aging. In addition to his strong offense, Marte’s still running the bases and defending at a high level. His sprint speed is down a bit relative to his physical peak, but he’s still an 85th percentile runner. And advanced defensive metrics have pegged his glovework as above-average to plus, so there wouldn’t seem to be any real concern about his ability to hold up in center field over the next couple seasons.

The Marlins’ books are almost completely empty for 2022 and beyond, so there’s room for the club to up their offer to Marte if they’d like him to stick around. If they’re unwilling to approach Marte’s asking price on a long-term investment, then a trade indeed seems the likeliest course of action. At 40-51, the Fish sit in last place in the NL East and are almost certain to miss the playoffs in 2021. The Marlins could hang onto Marte through the end of the year and make him a qualifying offer, but contending clubs seem likelier to offer a prospect return over the next couple weeks that’s more valuable than the compensatory draft choice Miami would receive if Marte rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.

A handful of contenders have received little to no production from their center fielders this season. The Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Rays, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners, Brewers and Red Sox have all received below-average production at the position. A few of those teams (including Tampa Bay, Toronto, Milwaukee and Boston) have viable in-house alternatives that could dissuade them pursuing a center field upgrade. It’s not clear whether the Yankees and Mariners are in position to pursue an impending free agent at the deadline. The Braves’ and Phillies’ presence within the division could present an obstacle to a deal.

While there are potential roadblocks to a Marte trade in any specific case, it stands to reason a few of those center field-needy clubs will be in contact with Miami. Teams seeking corner outfield help could certainly look to Marte as well. He has plenty of early-career experience in left field, or an acquiring team could bump their incumbent center fielder to a corner to accommodate a Marte pickup. The reported lack of progress on extension talks will make Marte one of the top position player trade candidates over the next twelve days.

Marlins Have Made Extension Offer To Starling Marte

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The Marlins have presented a multi-year extension offer to star center fielder Starling Marte, report Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Terms of the offer are unknown, although McPherson and Mish hear Marte and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball are seeking a “three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range.”

Marte, who is playing out the season on a $12.5MM contract, is slated to hit free agency at the end of the year. Last month, he expressed a desire to work out a long-term deal to stay with Miami rather than test the market. Theoretically, the two sides have until the conclusion of the season to work out an extension, although McPherson and Mish suggest the July 30 trade deadline could function as a de facto extension deadline as well. If the Marlins and Marte don’t work out a long-term deal in the next few weeks, the 35-47 Marlins are expected to trade him, according to the Herald duo.

The Fish could also hold onto Marte through the end of the year and make him a qualifying offer going into the offseason. He’d almost certainly reject the QO, entitling Miami to 2022 draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere. However, Marte is playing well enough this season that a contender would likely offer the Marlins a prospect package more valuable than the compensatory pick they’d receive if he turned down a QO.

While a rib fracture cost Marte a month of action earlier in the year, he’s arguably playing at a career-best level when healthy. The right-handed hitter has slashed .294/.401/.453 across 202 plate appearances. His resulting 143 wRC+ (which suggests he’s been 43 percentage points better than the average hitter after park-adjustments) is the best mark of his ten-year career. That’s driven primarily by a demonstrably more patient approach, as Marte is walking at a 13.4% clip that’s nearly triple the 4.9% career walk percentage he carried into the season.

Considering Marte’s performance this year, his reported preference for a deal in the $50MM range seems more than reasonable. He’s set to turn 33 years old in October, which will cap the deal’s length. Still, he’s tracking as the unquestionable top center fielder on the market and has been among the top performers regardless of position.

Among position players scheduled to hit free agency, only Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien and Nick Castellanos (who’s almost certain to opt out of the final two years of his deal) have an fWAR greater than Marte’s 2.8. Castellanos, Correa, Nelson Cruz and J.D. Martinez (who has a player option) are the only members of that group (minimum 100 plate appearances) to have outhit Marte this season.

Ng: Marlins Have Begun Extension Talks With Starling Marte

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The Marlins have been in talks with outfielder Starling Marté about a potential contract extension, general manager Kim Ng told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid) this afternoon. Unsurprisingly, she didn’t elaborate on how far along those discussions were or handicap their odds of ultimately resulting in a deal.

Nevertheless, the presence of any midseason talks with Marté are notable, given Ng’s prior comments. Earlier this month, she told reporters the team hadn’t approached the star outfielder about a potential long-term deal. Marté suggested then that his preference was to come to an agreement with the Marlins on a contract that took him through the end of his career. It seems the front office and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball have now at least opened those talks.

Marté is on track to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’s presently amidst a career year at the plate. He’s hitting .293/.402/.473 with six home runs across 179 plate appearances. The resulting 148 wRC+ is the best mark of his nine-plus seasons. Excepting 2017, Marté has been an above-average hitter in every year of his career, but he’s getting on base at an unprecedented level this season.

Before 2021, Marté had never drawn walks in more than 6.1% of his plate appearances. This year, he’s bumped his walk rate to a stellar 13.4%. That seems to reflect a deliberate decision to be more patient, as the right-handed hitter is swinging at a career-low 46.5% of pitches he sees. (He’s also swinging less often than ever at pitches outside the strike zone). That increased selectiveness hasn’t resulted in any sort of uptick in strikeouts or impacted his power potential.

Marté presents something of a tricky evaluation for the Marlins (or potential free agent suitors). He’s always been productive, but he looks to have revamped his approach nearly a decade into his career. Whether he’ll continue to be this patient after such a long run of being a highly-aggressive hitter is unknown.

There’s also the matter of Marté’s age to consider. He turns 33 years old in October, which could give Miami some pause. He hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down, though. Marté’s not quite as fast as he was in his 20’s, but he still has 86th-percentile peak speed, according to Statcast. His defensive metrics in center field remain positive. And his rate of hard hit balls (those that leave the bat over 95 MPH) is at 36.2%, right in line with his career mark. A handful of mishits have brought down his average exit velocity to a career-worst 85.6 MPH, but there’s no indication he’s suffered any sort of drop in bat speed or raw power.

If Marté and the Marlins don’t make progress on an extension in the coming weeks, he’d be one of the more obvious trade chips on the market. At 33-44, the Marlins don’t look likely to contend in 2021. They’re planning to move some of their impending free agents, a process they began this morning by sending outfielder Corey Dickerson (along with controllable reliever Adam Cimber) to the Blue Jays. As perhaps the premier center fielder who could be available, Marté would draw no shortage of interest, especially since he’s only due the balance of an affordable $12.5MM salary for the remainder of the season. The Marlins could offer Marté a qualifying offer if they hold onto him until the end of the year but don’t agree on an extension, but the value of a midseason trade package seems likely to exceed that of a compensatory draft pick.

Shortstop Miguel Rojas would also draw plenty of interest from contenders if made available, but it doesn’t seem the Marlins are particularly eager to move him. Ng suggested (via Mish) that Rojas was more likely than not to remain in Miami past the July 30 trade deadline. His contract contains a $5.5MM option for 2022 that vests if he accrues 500 plate appearances this season. He’ll need a manageable 271 trips to the plate over Miami’s final 85 games (3.19 PA per game) to lock in that money, although it seems likely the Marlins would exercise the option even if it doesn’t vest.

Rojas is a beloved member of the clubhouse who’s amidst a third consecutive productive season. The 32-year-old is hitting a league average .256/.328/.406 this year while playing quality defense at shortstop. That’s valuable enough even before considering his off-field importance to the organization.

No Extension Talks Between Marlins, Starling Marte

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5:30pm: Although he’d be one of the best outfielders available on the open market this winter, Marte tells Mish that his preference would be to forgo free agency entirely and sign an extension with the Marlins (Twitter link). Marte says he’d prefer to spend the remainder of his career with Miami and hopes the team will approach him about a long-term deal.

8:31am: With the trade deadline less than two months away and free agency looming just beyond that, the Marlins haven’t discussed a potential extension with center fielder Starling Marte, general manager Kim Ng told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Craig Mish of the Miami Herald).

Between the lack of extension talks and a recent swan dive in the standings for Miami, the 32-year-old Marte looks increasingly like one of the game’s likelier trade candidates as that July 30 deadline approaches. Marte missed about a month with a broken rib earlier this season, but he’s enjoyed one of the most productive runs of an already terrific career so far in 2021 when he’s been healthy enough to take the field.

In 110 plate appearances, Marte has raked at a .337/.436/.554 clip with four homers, six doubles, a triple and six stolen bases. He’s also walked at a 12.7 percent clip that is far and away a career-best mark. His chase rate on pitches off the plate (33 percent) is tied for a career-low, and his contact rate on balls off the plate when he does swing is a career-best (64 percent). From a defensive standpoint, Marte has ranked anywhere from average to slightly above, at least from a statistical standpoint (0 Defensive Runs Saved, 0.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, two Outs Above Average).

As of this writing, Marte is still owed about $7.9MM of this season’s $12.5MM salary between now and the end of the year. That $12.5MM salary was a sizable sum for the perennially low-payroll Marlins to absorb when they acquired him at last year’s trade deadline, but it’s an eminently reasonable (if not bargain) price for a player of Marte’s caliber and one that could be more easily stomached by a club with even a mid-range payroll.

The low-spending Marlins may not want to risk a qualifying offer for Marte at season’s end. Even though he’d very likely reject such an offer, assuming good health, that number figures to check in around the $19MM range this winter — a number that represents 30 percent of this year’s roughly $63MM Marlins payroll. If Marte did reject, Miami would then receive a compensatory pick after the first round if (or when) he signed elsewhere. In order to trade Marte, the Fish would need to feel they were receiving more (or at least comparable) value than they’d net with a comp pick in the 2022 draft.

There are very few center-field options on the market but multiple clubs in need of an upgrade in center, which should bode well for the Marlins if they do ultimately put Marte on the market. A pair of those clubs, the Phillies and Mets, are in the Marlins’ own division, which could complicate matters a bit. Others, including the Yankees and Astros, are on the precipice of the luxury-tax barrier and have been unwilling to cross that threshold in 2021. Miami could, of course, offer to pay down some or even all of Marte’s remaining salary in order to eliminate that risk for a trade partner; by doing so, the Marlins would be able to justify a higher asking price in return for a rental of Marte’s services before he hits the open market.

It’s been less than a year since the Marlins acquired Marte from the D-backs in a trade that sent lefty Caleb Smith and minor league right-hander Humberto Mejia to Arizona. The Marlins registered as somewhat of a surprise landing spot, given Arizona’s financial motivations for trading Marte away and Miami’s annual payroll constraints. He’s batted .289/.362/.482 overall with the Marlins and was part of the team’s surprising playoff push last year, and the Marlins will now likely recoup either a nice prospect return in a trade or a notable pick in the 2022 draft.

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