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Mets “Nearly” Struck Trade With Indians For Jason Kipnis

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The Mets and Indians very nearly pulled off a deal that would have sent Jason Kipnis to New York, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Upper management — Heyman hints on the Mets side — ended up scuttling a deal that seemed to be in place.

Kipnis was widely rumored to be on New York’s radar last month. For the Mets, the veteran would have plugged a hole at second base. And for the Indians, the considerations were mostly financial, as Kipnis is due $30.5MM on his deal (covering two more seasons along with a buyout on a 2020 option).

It was money, it seems, that caused the hang-up here. While the prospect cost was not prohibitive, Heyman says that “Mets higher-ups didn’t see Kipnis as good value.” Whether Cleveland would have paid down any portion of the remaining obligations in the proposed agreement is not known.

At this point, it would appear that the odds of talks re-opening are low. The Mets just landed free agent slugger Jay Bruce in a move that will occupy a significant portion of their remaining payroll availability. On the Indians’ side, moving the Kipnis contract likely would have helped facilitate their pursuit of Carlos Santana, but he reportedly agreed to terms with the Phillies on December 15th — right after the Mets/Kipnis talk heated up and before it died down.

In any event, the Mets do still need a second baseman — or, perhaps, a third baseman who’d bump Asdrubal Cabrera over to second. As Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote this morning, it seems the club still has a variety of open-market possibilities to consider in the infield. Todd Frazier, Howie Kendrick, Neil Walker, and Jose Reyes are evidently still on the team’s radar, while other trade options are presumably still on the table. (Puma does suggest that free agent Mike Moustakas and trade candidate Starlin Castro are not seen as viable options.)

For the Indians, meanwhile, the latest indication is that the team will utilize Kipnis at his native position of second base after having bumped him to the outfield late last year. Presumably he could still be moved in the right deal, but the organization may also mostly be preparing to hang on and hope he can return to form. While Kipnis limped to a .232/.291/.414 batting line in an injury-limited 2017 season, he carried a composite .289/.357/.460 line over the prior two seasons and has typically graded as a quality defender.

Starlin Castro Hoping To Be Traded Away From Marlins

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Marlins infielder Starlin Castro would prefer not to suit up for his new organization, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He recently landed in Miami in the blockbuster swap that sent superstar Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees.

It’s not difficult to see why Castro would prefer to find a new home. The Marlins are clearly in a rebuilding stance, with several top veterans already having been dealt and a few more still on the block. Castro is already guaranteed to earn at a healthy clip for the next two seasons — $10MM and $11MM apiece followed by a $1MM buyout on a 2020 option — and he’d surely prefer to draw his salary while playing for a contender.

It is not apparent whether Castro has communicated his preferences to his new organization directly, though Rosenthal’s report will have that effect regardless. Miami has made clear that it won’t make decisions about who stays and who goes based upon player requests. The organization has recently been forced to respond to reports that stars Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto want out.

From the Marlins’ perspective, clearing salary has obviously been a major motivating factor, and it has long seemed that Castro’s contract could be sent forward in another deal. On the other hand, the payroll situation is much improved from the start of the offseason and Castro could conceivably be retained — particularly if the club decides to keep Yelich and Realmuto (among others) while attempting a shorter rebuild.

The other factor here, of course, is market demand. Many organizations have already met their needs at second base, the position Castro has played most recently. And players such as Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick remain available in free agency. While it’s possible to imagine a few landing spots for Castro, it seems unlikely he’d be heavily pursued.

Still just 27 years of age, Castro is coming off of his best offensive season in some time. Over 473 plate appearances in 2017, he turned in a .300/.338/.454 batting line with 16 home runs while earning his fourth All-Star nod. But he was a below-average performer in each of the prior two seasons and has not graded as a plus defender in the middle infield.

East Notes: Nationals, Red Sox, Starlin

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Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals will end up paying up for a Scott Boras client, as they often do late in the offseason. In recent winters, owner Ted Lerner approved deals for players like Rafael Soriano, Max Scherzer and Matt Wieters after the calendar flipped to the new year, and there’s certainly a possibility it could happen again. Janes lists reliever Greg Holland, outfielder J.D. Martinez and starter Jake Arrieta as Boras clients who make sense for the club’s roster as it’s currently constructed. The Nationals have a history of doing business with Boras late in the year, or as Janes puts it, “When big-name Boras clients linger into the new year, the Nationals linger, too, as potential suitors, regardless of whether they have an obvious need.”

Elsewhere along the East Coast…

  • Unlike the Nats, the Red Sox rarely make late splashes in the free agent market. Jen McCaffrey of masslive.com posits that this year might be different. Boston is still in need of an upgrade to their offense, and J.D. Martinez remains on the market. Though the only significant late-winter deals the club made in the past decade were one-year pacts with Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre, the Red Sox are probably facing pressure from their fan base to improve an offense that finished dead last in the American League with 168 home runs and third to last with a 92 wRC+. Other big hitters still on the market include the likes of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, though neither seem like particularly good fits for Boston.
  • Though new Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro is generating some trade interest, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com believes he’s likely to stay put. Gary Denbo, the Marlins’ VP of player development and scouting, says that  Castro “has the ability to hit for average, and for a second baseman, he does provide power for that position.” Denbo also says he hopes that the second baseman can be a steady defender in the middle of the field. Since coming to Miami in the blockbuster Giancarlo Stanton trade, speculation has swirled around Castro as a potential trade candidate. I recently noted that the 27-year-old perhaps has some surplus value in his contract, which has two years and $22MM in guarantees remaining. His .300/.338/.454 battling line with the Yankees last year is solid, but his defense up the middle detracts a bit from his value.

Marlins Rumors: Payroll, Yelich, Realmuto, Analytics

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Though the Marlins fielded a $115MM payroll last season in Jeffrey Loria’s final year of ownership, the financial plan of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group doesn’t call for payroll to return to those heights until 2021, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson cites a pair of copies of the financial plan provided to potential investors, entitled Project Wolverine, in providing a number of details on the Marlins’ upcoming year-to-year payrolls as well as some aggressive revenue and attendance projections.

Notably, while the Marlins are aiming for a payroll around $90MM in 2018, the plan projects even lower payrolls in 2019-20 ($81MM and $84.8MM, respectively), before jumping back into the nine-figure range. Part of the reason for the healthier number in 2018 could be the one-time $50MM payout that all 30 MLB teams are receiving after Disney’s acquisition of BAMTech, per Jackson. (Beyond that, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa will be off the books after 2018.) It’s unclear whether trades of additional MLB assets will significantly alter those projections, though Jackson notes that Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro are available “for the right price,” while the team is (unsurprisingly) amenable to trading Tazawa ($7MM in 2018) and Ziegler ($9MM in ’18).

A bit more out of Miami…

  • If the Marlins do hang onto Yelich, he could once again be ticketed for left field duty, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Yelich and Marcell Ozuna flipped positions this past season, with Yelich moving from left field to center field, but the acquisition of Magneuris Sierra (in the trade that sent Ozuna to St. Louis) gives Miami a center field option with elite speed. Miami could line up an outfield with Yelich in left, Sierra in center and speedy Braxton Lee in right field, giving the Fish a rangy trio that is lacking in the power department. However, Frisaro notes that Miami is still open to adding another right field option (be it via trade or a presumably low-cost option on the free agent market).
  • At least 15 teams have called the Marlins on Yelich, per Frisaro, while another dozen or so are showing interest in Realmuto. Miami isn’t willing to move either player for anything less than a substantial overpay in terms of prospects and young talent, though. Frisaro lists the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and D-backs as teams that have spoken to Miami about Yelich.
  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel takes a look at the Marlins’ growing analytics department, reporting that former Yankees executive Dan Greenlee will now oversee the department. Former analytics head Jason Pare recently took a job as an assistant general manager with the Braves under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, and while Greenlee was initially tabbed as an interim head of the department, he’ll now oversee those operations on a permanent basis. Miami has also hired a new senior analyst (Myles Lewis), promoted analyst Michael Lord to analytics coordinator and is still seeking to hire another developer and another data analyst.

Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

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In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, D-Backs, Cobb, Lagares, Castro

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported on a few items of note in his latest column and has followed up with some additional bits of information. We’ll run down some of the key takeaways here:

  • While the Blue Jays have been quiet thus far, Heyman says they could be lurking on a few interesting names. In the outfield, J.D. Martinez is a legitimate target, he says, as are Carlos Gonzalez and Lorenzo Cain. The club is also considering quality utility options such as Eduardo Nunez and Howie Kendrick. Meanwhile, Toronto has reached out to the Padres on Brad Hand, who’s a highly valuable relief asset. It remains to be seen whether the Jays will be willing to pony up a lot of cash or prospect assets to make a significant win-now move, but it’s notable that the team is at least exploring some notable possibilities.
  • The Diamondbacks reportedly had real interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, but Heyman says the Snakes were not willing to consider moving third bagger Jake Lamb in a deal. That’s not terribly surprising; after all, the 27-year-old Lamb has only just reached arbitration eligibility and posted consecutive solid campaigns in which he has maintained a composite .248/.345/.498 batting line. Though he’s clearly an inferior overall player to Machado, Lamb is the type of affordable, quality regular that a team with Arizona’s payroll can ill afford to part with.
  • Thus far, free agent righty Alex Cobb “is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year,” Heyman writes, noting that his agents may view Mike Leake as a comp. Of course, Cobb is older and less durable than Leake was when he hit the open market, though Cobb also has a loftier established ceiling on the mound (at least, dating to his output before undergoing Tommy John surgery).
  • There’s some interest from rival organizations in Mets center fielder Juan Lagares, Heyman reports on Twitter. Of course, it’s far from clear that the New York organization has real interest in dealing away the 28-year-old. To the contrary, indications to date have been that the Mets expect to utilize Lagares quite heavily. The rangy defender last topped 400 plate appearances in 2015 and has not posted a league-average season with the bat since the season before that.
  • The Marlins are still indicating to rivals that they’re not particularly interested in dealing Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, Heyman tweets, though of course that could yet be a bargaining stance. Notably, though, the Fish are said to be seeking ways of parting with the recently acquired contract of Starlin Castro. Though Miami executive Gary Denbo indicated earlier today the club intends to keep Castro, it certainly would not be surprising for Miami to strike a deal if it means shedding yet more salary obligations to a player who likely won’t be a part of the organization’s next contending roster.

Marlins Notes: Yelich, Starlin, Smith, Rotation

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The White Sox are among the clubs that have spoken to the Marlins about Christian Yelich, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter), though he adds that those talks never gained much traction. Per Crasnick, talks never advanced beyond “routine dialogue.” Certainly, though, if the Marlins elected to shop Yelich to other clubs, there’d be a fit between the two sides. Chicago has one of the game’s top farm systems, and the 26-year-old Yelich would align nicely with the rebuilding White Sox’s projected timeline for contending. Yelich is owed $44.5MM over the next four seasons — a sum that includes the buyout on a $15MM option for a fifth season. All told, Yelich can be controlled for five years and $58.25MM — a relative bargain for a player that has batted .293/.371/.447 with outstanding left field defense over the past three seasons. Yelich showed in 2017, too, that he can handle center field if needed, though defensive metrics are much more bullish on his corner work. For now, however, Crasnick notes that execs with other clubs believe the Marlins will hang onto Yelich.

A bit more on the Marlins…

  • Marlins vice president of player development Gary Denbo tells reporters that he expects Starlin Castro to be a part of the club in 2018 as well (link via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). Denbo spoke highly of Castro, praising his ability to hit for power relative to other second basemen. Castro, acquired in the blockbuster that sent Giancarlo Stanton to New York, is owed $22MM over the next two seasons and has a $16MM option for a third year. There’s been plenty of speculation that the Marlins, looking to further trim their payroll, could flip Castro to a club in need of a second baseman. Marlins fans will want to check out Jackson’s piece for Denbo’s evaluations of prospects Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers — the other two players in the Stanton deal.
  • Jackson’s column and this column from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro both contain a number of quotes from Denbo on the young pitchers the Marlins have acquired this offseason. Denbo suggests that lefty Caleb Smith (another pickup from his former organization, the Yankees) will compete for a rotation spot in 2018. Smith, 26, was hit hard in a tiny sample of 18 1/3 innings with the Yankees last year, but he turned in an outstanding 2.39 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 41.1 percent ground-ball rate in 98 Triple-A innings in the Yankees organization. Smith averaged 94 mph on his heater with the Yanks last year, though he did so primarily as a reliever, so that velocity will likely take a step back when working as a starter. Denbo also weighs in on first baseman Garrett Cooper, who could potentially serve as a right-handed complement to Justin Bour.
  • In his latest Marlins Inbox, Frisaro breaks down the Marlins’ potential rotation, noting that he’s not convinced Dan Straily will be traded (thus positioning him to be the team’s Opening Day starter). Jose Urena should be in the mix as well, with Adam Conley, Justin Nicolino, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dillon Peters and (as Denbo suggested) Smith all in the mix as well. Wei-Yin Chen, of course, will start if he can return to health, though his status remains up in the air. Frisaro tackles a number of other roster-related issues, including the outfield alignment, the timeline of some pitching prospects to the Majors and Derek Dietrich’s role with the club.

Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton

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MONDAY: The trade is now official, per club announcements.

SATURDAY: It would appear that the Giancarlo Stanton saga has come to a close. The Yankees are set to acquire the 2017 NL MVP from the Marlins in exchange for infielder Starlin Castro, along with minor-leaguers Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. The Marlins will also send the Yankees $30MM in cash if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season. The deal is still pending a physical.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report that a deal was set, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned earlier that a deal was “virtually in place”, adding that Castro would be part of the deal. While some other cash numbers were mentioned by some reporters earlier in the day, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to mention the $30MM figure that has since been confirmed by Morosi as well as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Credit goes to Sherman for the report that the prospects involved are in the low minors, as well as first breaking the news that those prospects were Guzman and Devers. Sherman was also the first to report that the Yankees will only get the cash if Stanton doesn’t opt out after 2020.

While there was initially some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Stanton would waive his no-trade clause, that dissolved when Heyman reported that Stanton was on his way to New York City for his physical. Stanton will retain no-trade privileges after the one-time waiver, Heyman adds on Twitter, so he’ll still control his destiny if the Yanks end up trying to move the contract in the future.

The acquisition of Stanton by the Yankees brings a dramatic swirl of trade rumors to a firm close. There had been speculation about Stanton’s availability as early as July, though a trade never materialized despite Stanton reportedly clearing revocable trade waivers. Early in November, reports surfaced that the Marlins were interested in moving Stanton (and other big contracts) in order to trim payroll to about $90MM before the start of the 2018 season. While the Marlins were able to work out the framework for deals "<strongwith the Cardinals and Giants, Stanton ultimately used his no-trade clause to block those deals. The Marlins were ultimately forced to settle for a lesser prospect return from the Yankees, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Yankees took on more of Stanton’s salary than the Cardinals were willing to.

Stanton will add even more power to a Yankees lineup that finished the 2017 season with 241 homers; more than any other MLB club. Notably, Stanton will unite with the only other player to finish this past season with more than 50 homers: Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge. Those two right-handed power threats, along with a third in catcher Gary Sanchez, should become an absolute terror for opposing left-handed pitchers.

The Yankees have made it clear that they plan on trying to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and while the acquisition of Stanton would seem to run contrary to that objective, making the two work in tandem could be easier than it would initially appear. Luxury tax implications are based on the average annual value of guaranteed contracts, and Stanton’s figure towards the threshold is based off of his entire contract with the Marlins. Since that deal was for 13 years and $325MM, Stanton’s luxury tax contribution will be $22MM annually, thanks to the conditional $30MM contribution from the Marlins. The average annual value of Castro’s contract is $8.6MM, so the Stanton trade will only add about $13.4MM to the Yankees payroll in 2018 for luxury tax purposes.

The Stanton deal will no doubt have an enormous ripple effect throughout baseball, starting with the AL East. The Red Sox stand out as big losers in this deal; not only did they hope to acquire Stanton themselves after finishing last in the AL in home runs, but the 2017 homer champ will be another right-handed power threat to a lefty-heavy Boston rotation that includes Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. In addition, the Stanton deal further bolsters a Yankees team that looked formidable even without the reigning NL MVP, meaning that Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay (who seem to be on the fringes of contention) might reconsider their intentions to seriously compete for a pennant. Should those teams change their direction, big names like Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado could potentially become available in trade discussions. Even if that doesn’t happen, a more dominant Yankees lineup has a better chance to force their weaker rivals out of contention before the midseason trade deadline. That’s not to say that one player can definitively make such a profound impact, but as a seven-WAR player, Stanton could certainly tip the scales. Elsewhere in baseball, the Nationals, Mets and Braves will benefit from the full rebuild the completed deal signals for the Marlins camp.

Stanton, of course, led all qualifying MLB players this past year with 59 homers and a .631 slugging percentage en route to his first MVP selection. The towering 6’6″ right-handed hitter terrorized NL pitching to the tune of a .281/.376/.631 overall batting line while playing roughly average defense in right field. The Marlins took him in the second round of the 2007 draft, and have since been rewarded with 34.1 wins above replacement level. Stanton ranked seventh in the majors in 2017 with a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, including the hardest-hit ball all year (122.2 MPH). His .410 wOBA and 156 wRC+ both ranked fifth in MLB.

The 21-year-old Guzman is best known as one of the pieces sent from Houston to New York in exchange for catcher Brian McCann just last winter. The 2015 international signee out of the Dominican Republic posted excellent numbers in thirteen starts for the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate, including a 2.30 ERA with 11.28 K/9 against just 2.43 BB/9. Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs describes Guzman as someone who throws “absolute gas.” The 6’2″ righty reportedly sits around 96-100 MPH with his fastball and can reach back for up to 102. He combines that pitch with an 89 MPH slider; that combination helped him strike out a league-leading 33% of batters faced. KATOH projects him as high as a 4.5 WAR player in the majors.

Devers, 18, was also signed out of the Dominican Republic. The Yankees added the left-handed hitting shortstop to their system just this season for a bonus of $250K; he’s only got 53 pro games under his belt. Devers is best known as the cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who was a top prospect in Boston’s system and made his major league debut in 2017. Ben Badler of Baseball America describes the younger Devers as “a wiry shortstop with above-average speed, good hands and quick footwork.” He’s largely put to bed initial concerns about his arm action and arm strength, and has been described by opposing managers as someone who takes away a lot of hits with his glove. While he doesn’t provide much in the way of power, Devers shows good contact ability with the bat. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Devers also has a projectable frame, and confirms that his swing will need some tweaking if he wants to develop any real power.

East Notes & Rumors: Marlins, Red Sox, Schwarber, Stanton

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An early morning look at the majors’ East divisions:

  • There’s no desperation on the Marlins’ part to trade second baseman Starlin Castro, whom they’ll acquire from the Yankees when the teams’ Giancarlo Stanton trade becomes official, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. With a reasonable $22MM left on Castro’s contract over the next two years, the Marlins believe they’re in position to “wait for the right offer,” per Nightengale. Meanwhile, the Fish are entertaining offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the Cardinals “badly desire,” Nightengale notes. Ozuna will make a projected $10.9MM in his penultimate arbitration-eligible season in 2018, and he’s coming off a career year, so moving him would help the Marlins further slash their payroll and improve their weak farm system in one fell swoop.
  • The power-needy Red Sox have interest in Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber, according to Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he casts doubt on the idea of Chicago moving the 24-year-old. The Cubs’ front office has long been bullish on Schwarber, who’s coming off a disappointing season (granted, he did hit 30 home runs) but still under control for five more years. In the seemingly unlikely event the Cubs deal Schwarber to Boston, he’d be a candidate to slot in at first base/designated hitter.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required and recommended) regards the Stanton trade as a “no-brainer” move for the Yankees, arguing that he won’t have to replicate the MVP form he showed off in 2017 to justify the 10-year, $265MM commitment for New York. Law also doesn’t close the door on the Yankees adding Bryce Harper in free agency next year, as he’s of the belief that the former center fielder could still be an option there in the short term. While the Yankees may have cleaned up in the swap, Law regards it as an opportunity lost for Miami because, in addition to Castro, it’ll only get a pair of “fringe prospects” in return for an elite player. Law goes on to assess the prospects, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers, in depth.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Giancarlo Stanton Trade

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The Yankees shook the baseball world early Saturday when they agreed to acquire 2017 National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. As you’d expect, the deal has elicited no shortage of media reactions, many of which we’ve rounded up here:

  • While the Los Angeles-born Stanton would have preferred to go to the Dodgers, they didn’t make an offer that “intrigued” the Marlins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Sending Stanton to the Dodgers would have required the Marlins to take on more bad contracts than they were “comfortable with,” according to Sherman, who reports that LA wanted Miami to accept one or both of Adrian Gonzalez or Scott Kazmir and absorb $30MM of Stanton’s contract. The Marlins found acquiring Starlin Castro from the Yankees much more appealing, as he’s someone they could slot in at second base or flip elsewhere.
  • The Dodgers’ wariness toward a more aggressive Stanton pursuit stemmed from the back-loaded nature of his 10-year, $295MM commitment, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required and recommended). If he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020, Stanton will rake in $96MM over the final three years of his pact, when he’ll be in his late 30s. The Yankees will be able to slot him in at designated hitter then if his work in the field sharply declines with age, whereas the Dodgers would have had to continue running him out as a defender.
  • Adding Stanton gives the Yankees as many as six major league-caliber outfielders, thereby making Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier potential trade candidates. The Yankees will work to rid themselves of Ellsbury, even if it means eating “a lot” of the $68.3MM left on his contract, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Ellsbury was reportedly uninterested in leaving the Yankees as of earlier this week, but that was before the acquisition of Stanton relegated him to the role of a fifth outfielder. While Ellsbury, who has a full no-trade clause, would be a salary dump, the 23-year-old Frazier would likely bring back a quality return – perhaps a starter, King suggests. Additionally, the Yankees “would certainly listen on offers” for third baseman Chase Headley, per King. Headley is entering the last year of his contract, in which he’ll make $13MM.
  • With new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman on a mission to continue paring down payroll to the $90MM range, Castro looks like their most obvious trade chip, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. By parting with Castro – who has two years and $22MM left on his pact – and not taking back another guaranteed contract, Miami would still be about $15MM above its spending goal, Jackson notes. Further payroll slashing could come from deals involving some combination of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Moving Castro, Ozuna, Ziegler and Tazawa would likely obviate any need to trade Yelich, Jackson suggests.
  • Prior to the Yankees’ Stanton acquisition, they looked poised to go after Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency a year from now. That may be out the window now, leading Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post to posit that the trade probably helps the Nationals to some degree because it appears to erase a would-be Harper suitor. However, several other teams will make big offers to Harper, Janes points out, so retaining him on what should be a record contract still figures to be a tall order for the Nats.
  • Harper is among the losers in this trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic opines (subscription required and recommended). Unsurprisingly, Harper’s agent, the always colorful Scott Boras, disagrees. “A Bronx opera . . . The Three Tenors . . . Hal’s genius, vision,” Boras told Rosenthal via email, referencing Harper, Stanton, Aaron Judge and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. Boras added that the Harper-Stanton-Judge trio would be “a galaxy of international popularity” on the same team. While Boras clearly isn’t ruling out a Yankees-Harper union, Rosenthal sees Manny Machado as a more likely target for the club in free agency next year.
  • The fact that Stanton is set to join a Yankees team that was just one win from securing a World Series trip last season is a major blow to parity in the AL, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues. Cameron classifies the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Indians as potential “super teams” heading into next season, and the Angels could be on their way to the playoffs after winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. As impressive as those clubs look, there’s now less incentive for others to play for the last wild-card spot, Cameron contends, which could lead certain fringe teams to rebuild.
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