A lot has gone wrong for Atlanta this year. They came into the year as one of the best on-paper clubs. Prior to any regular season games being played, the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 25.3% chance of winning the World Series and a 98.5% chance of making the postseason, both of those figures being the highest in the league.
It appears we may be living in one of the 1.5% of alternate universes where they don’t make the playoffs, as their season is currently on the brink. They are two games behind the Mets and 1.5 behind the Diamondbacks for the final two National League Wild Card spots with less than a week to play. They could still squeak in, especially as they’re hosting the Mets for three this week, but it’s going to be tight. That’s thanks to a combination of factors, as several players on the roster have either underperformed or missed significant time due to injury.
Things may have been even worse if not for a handful of positive developments. The Chris Sale pickup has worked out beautifully, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Signing Reynaldo López and moving him back to a starting role has also worked out well. Marcell Ozuna is having his best season in years. But they’ve also gotten a huge performance from rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, which is a big development for the club both this year and in the future.
Schwellenbach came into the year with fairly limited experience. The righty was drafted in 2021 but had Tommy John surgery afterwards, which kept him from making his professional debut until 2023. Once he was able to retake the mound, the results were strong. He pitched 65 innings on the farm last year, split between Single-A and High-A, allowing 2.49 earned runs per nine. He struck out 21.6% of opponents and kept his walks down to a 6.3% rate.
Another eight starts in the minors to start 2024, between High-A and Double-A, led to him getting a quick push to the majors. Atlanta had already lost Spencer Strider to season-ending UCL surgery and needed help in the rotation.
Schwellenbach was added to the roster and made his major league debut on May 29, just two days before his 24th birthday. He now has 19 starts under his belt and looks the part of a legit big league starter. In 109 2/3 innings, he has a 3.61 ERA. He has struck out 26.3% of batters faced and limited walks to a 4.9% clip.
Despite his fairly short track record as a professional, he seems to have a diverse and polished arsenal. Per Statcast, he has thrown six different pitches this year: a four-seamer, a sinker, cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. He has thrown all six of those offerings at least 7.4% of the time, and all but the sinker have been thrown at a 13.6% clip or higher. He hasn’t leaned on any individual pitch more than the 28.4% rate of four-seamers, making him difficult to predict.
Perhaps there’s an argument for him using the splitter a bit more, as he has some noticeable platoon splits at the moment. He’s held righties to a dismal line of .203/.242/.355 but lefties have a potent .267/.321/.462 performance against him so far. He has thrown that splitter 23.3% of the time against lefty hitters and allowed only a .161 batting average. However, his four-seamer, curveball and and cutter have each allowed a .308 average or higher while being thrown at least 13.8% of the time.
His slider and sinker are being thrown less than 10% of the time against lefties with solid results. Opponents are hitting .222 against the slider and .214 against the sinker. Schwellenbach has a 33.9% whiff rate when throwing sliders to lefties. Perhaps he could find better results by altering his pitch mix or maybe things will even out with the curveball. Opposing lefties are hitting .308 against it but his xBA is just .239 and his whiff rate is 41.9%.
Given the diversity of his pitch mix and the fact that he’s only getting his feet wet at the big league level, it seems fair to expect that he’ll figure out a way to tamp down on the big splits going forward.
Regardless of how that plays out in the future, he’s already a useful pitcher in the present. Though Atlanta is currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they would undoubtedly be even further back if Schwellenbach hadn’t hit the ground running in the big leagues. Some missteps would have been understandable given that he had limited experience and skipped over Triple-A entirely, but he has more than held his own and helped keep the club in the race this year. Guys like Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Darius Vines and Allan Winans all struggled in their major league looks this year, so the staff likely would have been in much worse shape if Schwellenbach didn’t take the ball those 19 times.
It’s also a key development for the club in the long term. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both set for free agency, leaving two holes in next year’s rotation. Fried seems likely to command a nine-figure deal that Atlanta hasn’t given to a free agent before. Morton is about to turn 41 years old and has hinted at thoughts of retirement in recent years.
Without Fried or Morton and with Strider set to miss the start of next year, Atlanta was slated to start 2025 with a rotation core of Sale and López. As mentioned, Sale is having a great year but he’s about to turn 36 and didn’t pitch much from 2020 to 2023. López is also having a strong season but is converting from the bullpen to the rotation and has perhaps hit a bit of a wall, as he’s gone on the IL twice in the second half, with the second stint currently ongoing.
Having Schwellenbach in that rotation picture makes it look much better and he’ll be a huge help from a financial perspective as well. Atlanta has a bunch of significant contracts on the books due to signing a number of extensions in recent years. That gives them a lot of continuity but also less financial wiggle room in the offseasons.
Since Schwellenbach was called up at the end of May, he won’t be able to get a full year of service time in 2024. Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Schwellenbach isn’t eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which means he can’t get a full year of service via Rookie of the Year voting. That means he won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2026 at the earliest, if he earns Super Two status, and can be controlled for six more seasons after this one.
Per RosterResource, the club has a competitive balance tax number of $197MM for next year. They will likely trigger club options on Ozuna ($16MM), Travis d’Arnaud ($8MM) and Aaron Bummer ($7.25MM). Bummer’s option has a $1.25MM buyout and Ozuna’s buyout is $1MM, though d’Arnaud’s has none. That means those three would add $29MM. Arbitration raises will be needed if they want to keep Jarred Kelenic and Ramón Laureano.
The club will be near next year’s $241MM base CBT threshold at the beginning of the offseason. Trading one of Ozuna or Soler could give them some extra wiggle room but they will have some things on the offseason to-do list. Upgrading on Orlando Arcia at shortstop could be part of their plans, and same for Kelenic/Laureano in the outfield. The starting rotation will definitely be a target area this winter but Schwellenbach should give them one fewer slot to fill, which could allow them to be more aggressive in addressing their remaining needs.
