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Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

Astros Place Cristian Javier On 15-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Cristian Javier has been scratched from his scheduled start against the Nationals this afternoon and will be placed on the injured list, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Right-hander Hunter Brown will take the ball against the Nationals today in Javier’s stead, while righty Spencer Arrighetti is being recalled to replace Javier on the club’s active roster.

Javier has been a rare bright spot in what has been a brutal start to the 2024 campaign for the 7-15 Astros. None of that can be pinned on the 27-year-old righty, however, as Javier has dominated to the tune of a 1.54 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 23 1/3 innings of work across four starts so far this season. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for at least 15 days, though Espada indicated (as relayed by Kawahara) that the goal of Javier’s placement on the injured list was simply to “give him time” to recover, suggesting a fairly short absence could be on the table.

Even if Javier’s trip to the injured list is a fairly short one, it’s still tough news for the Astros. The club just returned veteran ace Justin Verlander from the injured list last week, and now Javier will join Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf for the time being. Of that group, only Valdez appears to be nearing a return. The lefty was placed on the injured list earlier this month due to elbow soreness but avoided a more serious injury, with Kawahara relaying that Espada even left the door open to Valdez returning to the club’s rotation sometime this week to pitch alongside Verlander and J.P. France against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

If Valdez can return in the coming days, it should be a fairly seamless transition into the rotation with off-days on Monday and Friday allowing the club additional flexibility if necessary. The southpaw made just two starts prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of the month but looked good in both of them, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 3.55 FIP and 10 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.

Should Valdez need a bit longer before he’s ready to be activated, the Astros figure to turn to Arrighetti to make a start at some point. The 24-year-old rookie made his MLB debut earlier this season and struggled badly in two starts, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and five walks in just seven innings of work, though he did manage to notch eight strikeouts. If Arrighetti doesn’t end up being needed to make a start in the coming days, the Astros could instead look to use him to bolster a bullpen that has posted a worrisome 5.29 ERA to this point in the 2024 season, better than only the Rays among AL clubs.

Astros Promote Forrest Whitley

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2:28pm: The Astros made it official, announcing Whitley’s recall with Spencer Arrighetti optioned in a corresponding move. Arrighetti’s rotation spot will likely be taken by Justin Verlander, who is expecting to be activated off the injured list shortly.

12:31pm: The Astros are recalling former top prospect Forrest Whitley for his first MLB promotion, reports Michael Schwab of the Juice Box Journal (X link). He’s already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Whitley, now 26, took a circuitous route to the majors. He was a first-round pick in 2016 out of a San Antonio high school. The 6’7″ righty dominated for his first year and a half, pitching his way to Double-A as a teenager. By 2018, he looked the part of a potential ace and the top pitching prospect in the sport.

Things haven’t played out the way Whitley or the Astros envisioned from that point. He was hit with a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy going into the ’18 season. Whitley battled shoulder issues the following year and lost his feel for the strike zone. The canceled 2020 campaign cost him another year of reps, although Houston nevertheless made the easy call to select him onto the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Whitley has held that spot ever since, although it didn’t always seem as if that were a guarantee. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and posted subpar results when he returned. His control issues resurfaced as he pitched to a 6.53 ERA in the upper minors in 2022. He got off to another rough start last season before sustaining a lat strain that ended his year in May. The Astros were granted a fourth minor league option as a result of Whitley’s injury history.

The front office decided to keep him on the 40-man roster throughout last offseason. They moved him to the bullpen this year upon optioning him to Triple-A Sugar Land. Whitley hasn’t gotten off to a great start, allowing four runs on a trio of homers in three innings, but he’s a fresh arm for a bullpen that has been tasked with 71 innings through the season’s first three weeks. Only the Dodgers and Padres — who leaned heavily on their relief groups during their abbreviated series in Seoul a week before every other team’s Opening Day — have used their bullpens more heavily than Houston has.

While Whitley’s promotion isn’t going to be met with the same level of fanfare as it would have a few years ago, it’s surely rewarding for the righty all the same. It’s the culmination of a nearly eight-year climb through the minors that has been littered with injury setbacks. It could prove to be a fairly brief call — Houston may need to continue cycling through middle relievers until their rotation finds any kind of groove — but he could get the chance to make his debut.

Astros Designate Cooper Hummel For Assignment

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The Astros have selected the contract of right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, a move that was reported last night. Right-hander Wander Suero was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land to open an active roster spot while utility player Cooper Hummel was designated for assignment to open a 40-man spot. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the list of transactions.

Hummel, 29, was just claimed off waivers last week but the Astros have been dealing with a notable roster churn of late. Each of Suero, Arrighetti and Blair Henley have been selected to the 40-man in the past few days, which has squeezed Hummel out of his spot.

It’s been quite a nomadic few months for Hummel, who was with the Mariners in 2023. Since December, he’s gone to the Mets, Giants and Astros via waiver claims or cash deals. It’s possible yet another jersey swap is over the horizon, as the Astros will now have a week to trade him or try to pass him through waivers.

His 227 major league plate appearances have resulted in an unimpressive batting line of .166/.264/.286 but he’s naturally been much better in the minors. From the start of 2021 through the present day, he has 992 Triple-A plate appearances. He has drawn a walk in a huge 17.3% of those while keeping his strikeout rate down to a respectable 21.2% rate. His combined batting line of .287/.419/.488 in that time translates to a wRC+ of 131.

Defensively, Hummel offers a unique level of versatility, having spent significant time behind the plate as well as the outfield corners, first base and even a small amount of time at third base. He also has one option year remaining, which means he can be kept in Triple-A for depth until needed. With less than a year of service time, he’s still not close to qualifying for arbitration or free agency.

That combination of his Triple-A offense, his defensive flexibility and his contract status clearly makes him appealing to clubs, judging by how many of them have tried to grab him since the end of last year. Taking all that into consideration, he may be on the move yet again in the days to come. If he were to finally pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Astros as non-roster depth, since he has neither the three years of service time nor the previous career outright that would give him the right to elect free agency.

Astros To Promote Spencer Arrighetti

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The Astros are promoting pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti, report Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The right-hander will make his major league debut tomorrow evening in Kansas City. Houston will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move when they officially select Arrighetti’s contract.

It’s the first major league call for the 24-year-old. Houston selected Arrighetti in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of the University of Louisiana. While he didn’t enter the professional ranks with much fanfare, he has developed into arguably the top pitching prospect in the Houston system. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted Arrighetti as the organization’s best minor league pitcher and a top five talent in the system overall.

Both outlets suggest Arrighetti projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s but plays a bit above its velocity because of its ride at the top of the zone. BA and The Athletic each suggest that Arrighetti’s slider is the best pitch in a generally solid arsenal, while he throws enough strikes to potentially stick in the rotation.

Arrighetti split the 2023 campaign between the top two levels of the minors. He allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine through 124 2/3 innings, striking hitters out at an above-average 27.1% clip. Arrighetti has logged 8 1/3 innings of two-run ball over his first two Triple-A starts this year. He has punched out 10 batters but issued seven walks in the early going.

Houston has been forced to dip its into rotation depth. The Astros knew all offseason they’d be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia deep into the season as they rehab from arm surgeries. Justin Verlander began the year on the shelf after a minor bout of shoulder soreness in Spring Training, while José Urquidy went down with a forearm strain during exhibition play. The Astros poked around the rotation market late in the offseason but decided against meeting the asking price for Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.

They opened the season with a starting five of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco. Valdez recently felt some soreness in his elbow and landed on the 15-day injured list this evening. Houston called Blair Henley for a spot start in Valdez’s place last night but will give Arrighetti the next look in the rotation. It could be a brief first call, as Verlander is slated for a second rehab start this weekend and could be back in the majors by the end of next week.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

AL West Notes: Angels, Leiter, Astros

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After a strong start to the 2023 campaign, the Angels have faltered with a 4-14 record over their last 18 games. That slip to fourth place in the AL West has been accompanied by a rash of major injuries to key players like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela. Fortunately for the club, the tides of their injury misfortune may be turning. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger notes that both infielder Brandon Drury and catcher Logan O’Hoppe have progressed to hitting off a tee in their injury rehab processes.

Drury, in a particular, seems poised for a quick return, as Bollinger adds that he hopes to return from injury “in a few days.” O’Hoppe is farther away, considering his initial recovery timeline of four to six months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum back in April. Still, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicates that O’Hoppe’s recovery is going well, as he told reporters that his healing process following the surgery is expected to end next week, allowing him to focus on baseball activities going forward. While no specifics were given regarding O’Hoppe’s timeline for return, his most recent comments seem to leave the possibility of a late-season return on the table, which is excellent news given his status as the Angels’ top prospect entering the 2023 campaign.

More from around the AL West…

  • It’s been a frustrating season for the Rangers and 2021 second overall pick Jack Leiter. After his selection in the 2021 draft, Leiter entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. Since then, however, he’s struggled mightily when pitching at the Double-A level, with a 5.54 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work last season that saw him fall off many top 100 lists entering the 2023 campaign. Things haven’t gotten better from there, as Leiter has posted an eerily similar 5.52 ERA in 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) this season. Leiter’s struggles culminated in the club moving him to the development list yesterday, taking him off the Double-A active roster. Per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, the club hopes to work with Leiter on his mechanics in a more controlled environment than minor league starts can provide, and has offered no timetable for Leiter’s return to game action. It’s a deeply disappointing update for Rangers fans, as the 54-39 club would surely benefit from the front-line production Leiter was expected to provide when he was selected with the second overall pick two years ago.
  • While the Astros have not been shy about their desire to acquire rotation help ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, Astros GM Dana Brown recently discussed with reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) the club’s back-up plan in the event that the club fails to acquire a surefire starter for the rotation over the next couple of weeks. Brown indicated that the club would consider a second half call-up for right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to help supplement the rotation if reinforcements are still necessary after the deadline. A sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, Arrighetti a 4.21 ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels this season. While Arrighetti seems unlikely to provide the same impact a rental starter such as Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez could offer, the Astros have managed to find success while relying on unheralded rookies this season, including J.P. France, Ronel Blanco, and Shawn Dubin.
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