Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Sonny Gray

Braves Interested In Sonny Gray

By | at

The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services.  The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.

Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade.  Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist

As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost  $14MM shaved from the budget.  The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.

MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.  While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.

It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart.  Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024.  Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.

Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office.  Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal).  Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.

However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation.  While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular.  Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

By | at

Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP

By | at

Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

By | at

As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

By | at

All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

By | at

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Phillies Among Teams Showing Interest In Sonny Gray

By | at

The Phillies are among the teams with interest in free agent right-hander Sonny Gray, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phils have obvious interest in retaining their own top free agent starter, Aaron Nola, and would become a more aggressive suitor for Gray if Nola ultimately lands elsewhere, per the report. As Morosi further points out, there’s a natural Phillies/Gray connection, as Philadelphia pitching coach Caleb Cotham worked with Gray in Cincinnati and was also a college teammate of Gray at Vanderbilt. Beyond that, while Gray’s relatively brief stint with the Yankees didn’t go well, it’s perhaps worth pointing out that his more successful 2017 output in the Bronx overlapped with current Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s final year as bench coach there.

Gray, who turned 34 yesterday, just wrapped up one of the best seasons of his career, tossing 184 frames of 2.79 ERA ball for the AL Central-winning Twins. Gray added a sharp five innings of shutout ball in the AL Wild Card round, pushing the Twins to a series victory over the Blue Jays, though he faltered against the Astros in the ALDS when he allowed four runs in the first inning of his start there (before recovering, to an extent, to last four innings on the day). He’s already been named an AL Cy Young finalist, although it’s widely expected that he’ll be a runner-up to frontrunner Gerrit Cole for the award.

Minnesota extended a qualifying offer to Gray, though given his track record and a top-three finish in AL Cy Young voting, he’s all but a lock to turn that down in favor of testing the open market. Gray previously and candidly acknowledged that “money is not the ultimate factor for me” in free agency and professed his affinity for pitching in the Twin Cities, but it’d nevertheless be a shock to see him accept that one-year offer when a lucrative multi-year deal awaits him in free agency. Chris Bassitt, who inked a three-year, $63MM deal with Toronto after rejecting a qualifying offer at the same age last offseason, represents something of a floor for Gray in free agency.

While some teams balk at signing free agents who’ve rejected qualifying offers — doing so requires forfeitures in the draft and international free agency — the Phillies don’t fall into that camp. Philadelphia owner John Middleton has been willing to accept that burden on a near-annual basis, in fact. The Phils have forfeited draft picks and international money to sign each of Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta. And while they technically didn’t forfeit a pick to sign J.T. Realmuto, they’d have received a comp pick had he left the team to sign elsewhere, but the Phils re-upped with him on a five-year pact.

Given that history, there’s little reason to think the Phillies wouldn’t be willing to take a similar approach with Gray. It’s not clear whether they’d wait for Nola to actually commit to another team before pursuing alternatives, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is known for generally acting quickly and rather decisively on the market. If the Phils get the sense that the Nola bidding will extend beyond their comfort zone, it’s at least feasible they could pivot to an alternative plan before he actually signs a contract — be that alternative Gray or one of the many other veteran starters on the market (e.g. Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell).

The Phillies currently have a projected payroll around $214MM, per Roster Resource, which is a ways shy of last year’s $245MM mark. Signing Gray, retaining Nola or adding any of the prominent free-agent alternatives would likely thrust the Phils right back into luxury tax territory, but they were willing to cross that bridge in each of the past two seasons.

Whether it’s Nola, Gray or another outside acquisition, the Phillies are all but guaranteed to bring in some rotation help this winter. As it stands, their rotation group consists of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t all that far from MLB readiness, but a team with World Series aspirations will surely seek more certainty than that. Fellow top prospect Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July, removing him as a near-term option. Nick Nelson, Dylan Covey and recent waiver claim Josh Fleming are all depth candidates, but it’s clear that someone more stable will be brought in.

As with any report of this nature, it bears emphasizing that Gray very likely is not the sole alternative to Nola the Phillies will consider. In all likelihood, Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office will engage with the representatives for all top-tier and mid-tier starters, both to gauge expectations and to have contingencies in place if their preferred plans of attack don’t pan out. But Gray does at least have some personal ties to members of the Phillies’ staff, and the team has shown a repeated willingness to spend at high levels to sign qualified free agents in addition to a willingness to incur luxury tax penalties.

All of that context is important in their rotation pursuits. Philadelphia will likely be tied to Montgomery and others as well before too long, and they’ll surely be prominent players through the bulk, if not the entirety, of Nola’s own foray into the open market.

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By | at

Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By | at

The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

By | at

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top