Sonny Gray

Cardinals Notes: Gray, Middleton, Center Field

By Leo Morgenstern | March 16, 2024 at 12:22pm CDT

New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray will throw in a “simulated pregame situation” on Sunday as he works his way back from a hamstring strain, according to John Denton of MLB.com. If all goes well, Gray could be ready to pitch in the team’s opening series against the Dodgers from March 28-31. However, manager Oliver Marmol told Denton that he has not yet decided on his Opening Day starter. That suggests the skipper isn’t optimistic about Gray’s availability for the very first game of the season.

The AL Cy Young runner-up in 2023, Gray signed a three-year, $75 million deal with St. Louis this winter to be the club’s new No. 1 starter. If he were at full strength right now, there would be no questions as to who would take the ball on Opening Day. Ultimately, however, the Cardinals won’t care who makes the symbolic game one start as long as Gray is healthy enough for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

In a much less positive injury update, right-hander Keynan Middleton will be shut down for 10 days as he nurses a forearm strain in his pitching arm (first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Gray was the Cardinals’ biggest free agent acquisition for the rotation, Middleton was their biggest free agent acquisition for the bullpen. As Marmol told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this “will obviously set [Middleton] back several weeks,” essentially guaranteeing that he will start the year on the IL. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, St. Louis plans to be without the righty for at least the first two weeks of the season.

Middleton was a strong middle reliever for the White Sox and Yankees last year, pitching 50 2/3 innings and putting up a 3.38 ERA. He has spent time on the IL in almost every season of his career, and 2023 was no exception; he missed most of September with a shoulder injury. Still, his 51 appearances were his most in a season since his 2017 rookie campaign. He also posted a career-high 30.2% strikeout rate (his previous career average was 22.1%), a career-high 56.6% groundball rate (his previous career average was 32.9%), and ranked among the top 10% of pitchers in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. As a result, he finished with a 3.71 xERA, the lowest of his career.

While the Cardinals will hope Middleton doesn’t miss too much of the regular season, they will have to consider new bullpen options in his place. Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero are locks for the Opening Day roster, while Andre Pallante is a safe bet as well. After those five names, Denton mentions Riley O’Brien, Nick Robertson, and Rule 5 draft selection Ryan Fernandez as contenders for the final three spots in the ’pen. Woo suggests the team has also considered a six-man rotation, which would mean running with a seven-man bullpen.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have a decision to make in center field. As Tommy Edman continues to deal with pain in his wrist after offseason surgery, he will not be on the Opening Day roster. Dylan Carlson might have seemed like the obvious choice to fill in for Edman, but Marmol told Denton that the starting job in center field is still up for grabs. Carlson is a contender, but so are prospects Victor Scott II and Michael Siani.

Scott is the No. 83 prospect in baseball, according to both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He boasts incredible speed and plays phenomenal center field defense. Siani has a similar skill set but doesn’t have the same upside, which could end up helping his case to win the job; the Cardinals will be less inclined to rush Scott to the major leagues. Siani also has an edge because he is already on the 40-man roster. Carlson has better offensive abilities than either of the rookies, but he’s coming off a disappointing season at the plate. Moreover, while he is a capable defensive outfielder, both Scott and Siani have elite defensive potential. If Marmol isn’t convinced Carlson can figure things out at the dish, he might prefer to prioritize defense up the middle.

NL Central Notes: Taillon, Cardinals, Grandal

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2024 at 7:42pm CDT

Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has yet to make an in-game appearance this spring due to soreness in his calves. That was set to change today as he was poised to make his first start since camp began, though those plans were scuttled when the club scratched Taillon from his start earlier today.

As noted by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, manager Craig Counsell indicated to reporters that Taillon was dealing with lower back tightness and that the right-hander’s back “locked up” while throwing warm up pitches prior to his scheduled start, though there hasn’t been imaging scheduled for the right-hander and Counsell indicated the club hopes to know more about Taillon’s status tomorrow. Sharma goes on to note that the Cubs are hopeful the issue was just a spasm and that Taillon has dealt with a similar issue previously in his career and that it often subsides after just a few days. Though Chicago is remaining optimistic that the 32-year-old will be able to avoid a trip to the shelf to open the season, the right-hander missing time to open the season would be a blow to the club’s chances in a crowded NL Central division.

Taillon figures to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation this season alongside fellow veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, behind southpaws Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation has not yet been determined but appears likely to go to one of Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski as things stand. Taillon’s four-year deal with the Cubs got off to a rough start last season as he struggled to a 6.90 ERA in his first 13 starts with the club, though he settled in to provide mid-rotation results late in the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.23 ERA across the season’s final three months. [UPDATE: Counsell told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters Sunday that Taillon “came in today pretty much the same as he left yesterday. Probably not the improvement we were hoping for.” While the manager admitted to “a level of concern for Opening Day,” Counsell doesn’t “think it’s a long-term absence for Jameson, so don’t think it’s one of those concerns.”]

Sonny Gray Diagnosed With Hamstring Strain, Could Open Season On Injured List

By Steve Adams | March 5, 2024 at 9:45am CDT

Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray has been diagnosed with a “mild” strain of his right hamstring, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced Tuesday morning (X link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Mozeliak called it “encouraging” news that Gray had dodged a more serious strain, he acknowledged that it could be “challenging” to get Gray ready for the beginning of the season and that Opening Day is now “in question” for the team’s top offseason acquisition.

Gray missed time with a pair of strains in this same hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022, though Mozeliak told reporters today that the team is confident this is less severe. It’s a mild enough issue that Mozeliak has already spoken out against the possibility of Gray’s injury spurring further additions on the starting staff (X link via John Denton of MLB.com).

“I definitely feel it’s not something that is required at this point,” Mozeliak said when asked about potentially bringing in some additional help for the rotation. “Obviously if something changes, we’d have to look at it differently, but we’re not thinking we’ll have to do anything now.”

The Cardinals haven’t spoken with the Boras Corporation about either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery recently, and a “mild” injury for Gray would’ve been an unlikely catalyst for such a major response anyhow. Mozeliak’s comments make it unlikely that remaining second-tier arms like Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger will be considered, though it’s possible the Cards could look to add some modest depth either via waivers or perhaps with a minor league deal for a veteran who’s amenable to a non-guaranteed pact.

With Gray presumably on the shelf to start the season, the Opening Day nod feels likelier to fall to veteran Miles Mikolas. He’d be followed by lefty Steven Matz and righties Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, both of whom signed a one-year contract in free agency this past offseason. (Matz is entering the third season of a four-year, $44MM free agent deal himself.) The top in-house options to step into the fifth starter spot, if needed, are lefties Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Fellow southpaw Drew Rom made eight starts for the Cards last season but struggled to an ERA north of 8.00 in the process.

The Cardinals signed Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract this offseason and forfeited their second-highest draft pick as well as $500K of space from next year’s international bonus pool in order to do so. He’d already been tabbed the team’s Opening Day starter. Gray finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting last season after giving the Twins 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball through 32 starts. He fanned 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball at 5.08 — a number that includes 21 starts from Montgomery (3.52 ERA) and 20 from Jack Flaherty (4.43 ERA) — both of whom were traded at the deadline. The trio of Gray, Gibson and Lynn was signed in large part to provide some stable veteran innings, though Gray obviously comes with a front-of-the-rotation ceiling as well. For now, his ability to lead the staff will be placed on hold, but if it’s a short enough absence there’ll still be time for Gray to perhaps make 30 starts for the Cards when all is said and done.

Sonny Gray Headed For MRI After Early Exit; Tommy Edman May Not Be Ready For Opening Day

By Steve Adams | March 4, 2024 at 2:32pm CDT

Top Cardinals starter Sonny Gray exited today’s spring start with a trainer in the middle of an at-bat against Washington’s Nick Senzel. The team announced shortly afterward that Gray was experiencing tightness in his right hamstring. Gray declined to comment on the potential injury after exiting, instead stating that he wanted to talk to the team’s training staff and learn more about the issue before speaking with the media (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Gray missed roughly a month of the 2022 season with a strain in that same right hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022. Goold further tweets that Gray is headed for an MRI to determine the severity of the issue.

An absence of any real note would be a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals. While the Cards overhauled their rotation this winter, Gray is the lone front-of-the-rotation arm the team brought in. Lance Lynn isn’t far removed from posting high-end results himself, but he’s 36 years old and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He, like fellow mid-30s veteran Kyle Gibson, was signed more as a durable source of innings than to be a clear playoff-caliber starter.

Gray, 34, is fresh off a Cy Young runner-up finish in the American League. He pitched 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball last season, fanning 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. Gray’s 2.83 FIP was a near-identical match with his ERA, though metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize home run rate, were more bearish and pegged him in the mid- to upper-3.00s. Gray’s 5.2% homer-to-flyball ratio was less than half the 12.3% career mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed him for three years and a total of $75MM back in November. He’s slated to be joined by Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas in one of the game’s oldest rotations.

Even if Gray can’t quite replicate his 2023 performance, he’s the clear top starter on that St. Louis staff. Were he to miss time, the drop-off between Gray and his replacement would be substantial. At present, the top options to step into the staff in his stead would presumably be lefties Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Righties Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are both on the 40-man roster as well, though neither has made his MLB debut yet.

The Cardinals, at least thus far, haven’t brought in any veteran big league starters on non-roster deals. That’s understandable, as most players open to that type of deal would take a look at the veteran rotation in St. Louis and see a lack of opportunity — but the lack of any proven depth could also be an issue in 2024, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up.

Gray isn’t the only key member of the Cardinals who’s facing some health-related uncertainty. Tommy Edman, formerly the team’s shortstop and now slated to serve as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder, isn’t recovering from arthroscopic wrist surgery as swiftly as the team hoped. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that “internal concern is growing” that Edman might not be ready for Opening Day. Edman still hasn’t been cleared to face live pitching, Woo writes, and despite the fact that Opening Day is just over three weeks away, there’s not even a timetable for when that might happen.

Fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson would step into the starting job in center field if Edman is on the injured list to begin the season, per the report. Lars Nootbaar played plenty of center field last season, but perhaps if the plan is for him to play left field regularly when Edman is healthy this season, the team simply wants Nootbaar getting as many reps in that position as possible. Carlson’s role as a fourth outfielder would be cycling through all three spots anyhow.

Edman, 28, had a disappointing 2023 at the plate while playing through pain in that now surgically-repaired wrist for much of the season. The versatile switch-hitter spent nearly a month of the ’23 season on the injured list due to inflammation in that wrist, and when he was healthy his output at the plate dropped from .265/.324/.400 in 2022 (106 wRC+) to just .248/.307/.399 in 2023 (92 wRC+).

In the event that Edman indeed requires a stint on the injured list to begin the season, that’d open up a spot on the bench for the Cards. That wouldn’t necessarily need to be an outfielder, as utilityman Brendan Donovan is no stranger to the outfield, and as previously noted, Nootbaar can handle center field work as well. That said, an outfielder would be the most logical candidate. Lefty-swinging Michael Siani and Alec Burleson are both on the 40-man roster already and both have minor league options remaining. Siani is regarded as a plus defender in center field and would offer premium speed off the bench, while Burleson would be limited to first base and the corners but give the Cards some power that the bench currently lacks.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2023 at 4:27pm CDT

The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services. The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

By Darragh McDonald | November 29, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Sonny Gray signing with the Cardinals (1:40)
Kenta Maeda signing with the Tigers (11:45)
Dodgers, Braves, Orioles and Reds missed on Aaron Nola (14:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason – listen here
Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here

Details On Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson Contracts

By Anthony Franco | November 28, 2023 at 10:22pm CDT

The Cardinals finalized their three-year, $75MM contract with Sonny Gray yesterday. It came with a club option for the 2027 season which reports had pegged at $30MM with a $5MM buyout.

That deal is heavily backloaded. As reported by the Associated Press, Gray is set for a modest $10MM salary in 2024. He’ll make $25MM in ’25 and $35MM in the final guaranteed season, with the buyout bringing the guarantee to $75MM.

The ’27 option is not strictly a team provision; if the Cardinals exercise the option, Gray would have the right to opt out. If either side declines the option, the buyout would be paid in $1MM installments between 2027-31. Gray also receives full no-trade protection, per the AP.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the deal might be most meaningful for the organization. Had the contract been paid out fairly evenly, the team’s 2024 commitments would have jumped into the $190MM+ range. With the relatively low sum for 2024, Roster Resource projects the Cards’ player spending for next season around $180MM.

St. Louis opened the ’23 season with a payroll around $177MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated at the beginning of the offseason that the club figured to remain in that general area for next season. There still might not be a ton of remaining spending room, although the signings of Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have checked off the team’s primary goal of adding three starting pitchers.

They’re also looking to add to the bullpen but could accomplish that via trade and/or free some payroll capacity by trading a veteran player. Tyler O’Neill (projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.5MM salary) and Dylan Carlson (projected at $1.8MM) are each into arbitration. Steven Matz, due successive $12.5MM salaries for the next two seasons, was pushed into the #5 spot in the rotation and could potentially be a trade candidate if St. Louis felt confident in any of their younger arms to take a step forward.

The AP also provides specifics on Gibson’s contract. Initially reported as a $12MM guarantee, it’s actually a $13MM deal. Gibson will make a $12MM salary next season and is ensured at least a $1MM buyout on a $12MM team option for 2025. The righty would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded and would lock in a $500K incentive for reaching 175 innings in either year of the contract.

Cardinals Sign Sonny Gray To Three-Year Deal

By Nick Deeds | November 27, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cardinals have added their desired top-of-the-rotation starter. St. Louis announced the signing of right-hander Sonny Gray to a three-year guarantee with a club option for the 2027 season. It’s a reported $75MM deal, while the option is valued at $30MM and comes with a $5MM buyout (which is included in the overall guarantee).

Gray, who celebrated his 34th birthday earlier this month, hit free agency on the heels of a dominant 2023 campaign with the Twins that saw him earn his third career All Star appearance and finish as the runner-up in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees righty Gerrit Cole. The veteran hurler posted a sterling 2.79 ERA (54% better than league average by measure of ERA+) along with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP in 184 innings of work across 32 starts. His 24.3% strikeout rate was a top-25 figure among qualified starters this season, while his 47.3% groundball rate ranked ninth among that same group. Only Framber Valdez, Zach Eflin, Justin Steele, and Kyle Bradish posted better figures in both stats this year.

The deal will be the first free agent contract of Gray’s 11-year major league career, as the 18th overall pick of the 2011 draft signed an extension with the Reds upon being traded to Cincinnati in early 2019 that covered the 2020-22 seasons, with a team option for 2023. At the time of the three-year, $30.5MM deal, Gray was coming off a brutal 2018 campaign with the Yankees that saw him post a 4.90 ERA (86 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP. Fortunately for both the Reds and Gray, the righty quickly turned things around with a 2.87 ERA, 175 1/3 inning performance during the 2019 season. Altogether, Gray posted a 3.22 ERA (138 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the life of his extension, though the final two seasons of the deal were spent with the Twins after the righty was shipped to Minnesota in exchange for right-hander Chase Petty just before the 2022 season.

Strong as Gray’s platform season in 2023 was, there were some potential red flags in his performance. Most notably, Gray allowed a microscopic 5.2% of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs, by far a career low that flies in the face of his career-high 6.9% barrel rate. That disparity leaves Gray with expected stats that are significantly less impressive than his actual production last season, including a 3.64 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA. While those are both still top-20 figures among qualified starters this season, it’s reasonable to be concerned that Gray’s elite home run prevention figures may not hold up over time, particularly as he enters his mid-thirties. Of course, a move from the Twins’ home ballpark of Target Field (which has played slightly homer-friendly in recent years) to the Cardinals’ home field of Busch Stadium could help alleviate those concerns to some extent. While Busch played as an essentially neutral ballpark in terms of home runs in 2023, the stadium has been among the best for suppressing the long ball in recent years.

Though a deal for Gray comes with its fair share of risk, it’s hard to imagine a team better situated to enjoy the benefits of his services than the Cardinals. St. Louis starters posted a collective ERA of 5.02 in 2023, the fifth-worst figure in the majors. The club’s struggles with starting pitching this season led president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to announce the club’s desire to add three starting pitchers this winter to a rotation that included little certainty beyond veteran righty Miles Mikolas headed into 2024. Between deals for Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and now Gray, St. Louis has accomplished that goal before the calendar flips to December.

Lynn and Gibson both pitched to the results of a back-end starter in 2023 with ERAs of 5.73 and 4.73, respectively. Adding Gray to the mix gives the Cardinals a bonafide, front-of-the-rotation arm to whom they could confidently assign a playoff start to as they look to turn things around on the heels of a 91-loss season that saw them finish dead last in the NL Central this year. Gray was among the top free agent starters this winter, coming in at the #9 spot of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents list with a projected four-year, $90MM contract. That projection ended up a year and $15MM above the contract Gray received, though our $22.5MM projected average annual value was actually slightly below the $25MM figure Gray ultimately received.

It’s possible the deal completes the club’s 2024 rotation with a projected starting five of Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn, and left-hander Steven Matz. That would make for a rotation entirely comprised of veteran arms well past their 30th birthdays; Matz, 33 in May, would be the youngest of the group. That being said, it’s at least feasible the club could look to add a younger arm to the rotation later in the offseason. Matz has seen considerable use out of the bullpen during his two years in St. Louis, leaving a plausible path to a fourth rotation addition should the club to make one. In addition to Gray, the Cardinals have been connected to both NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery this offseason.

That being said, it’s unclear whether the signing of Gray will preclude the club from adding either of those arms from a payroll perspective. It’s worth noting that Mozeliak has indicated payroll could stay relatively stagnant compared to last year’s expected figure prior to their sell-side moves at the trade deadline. That would likely leave the Cardinals with around $40-50MM of payroll space to work with this offseason, $22MM of which has already been dedicated to the signings of Gibson and Lynn. Between the $25MM reported cost for Gray and the Cardinals’ reported desire to add multiple arms to the bullpen this offseason, the club seemingly has minimal financial wiggle room for other moves of significance going forward.

In addition to the $75MM the Cardinals are committed to Gray, the club stands to lose their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft and $500K in international bonus pool space from the signing of a qualified free agent. The Twins, who extended Gray a qualifying offer earlier this month, are in line to receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round in next year’s draft, as Gray signed for more than $50MM. It’s the second consecutive offseason during which St. Louis has signed a qualified free agent after the Cardinals signed catcher Willson Contreras away from the Cubs last winter.

The Cardinals weren’t the only known suitor for Gray’s services this winter, as the Braves have frequently been connected to the right-hander in recent weeks. It’s unclear whether the Braves ultimately made an offer to Gray, but the veteran righty represents the second front-of-the-rotation arm Atlanta has shown interest in who ultimately signed elsewhere this offseason. The club reportedly offered right-hander Aaron Nola a deal worth $162MM over six years prior to him landing with the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. While there’s still plenty of front-of-the-rotation caliber arms available this offseason, it’s worth noting that Atlanta’s financial outlook is somewhat murky and the club has already signed Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year deal with an eye toward stretching him out as a starter.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Cardinals and Gray were likely to finalize a contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported it would be a three-year, $75MM guarantee. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported the option value.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Reportedly Pursued Sonny Gray; Interested In Tyler Glasnow

By Darragh McDonald | November 27, 2023 at 1:30pm CDT

Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.

Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.

Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.

If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.

There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.

It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.

That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.

Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.

That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.

There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”

Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.

Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.

Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2023 at 3:20pm CDT

The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.

Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.

Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.

Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.

Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.

Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.

In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.

As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.

It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.

That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.

All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.

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