Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Shota Imanaga

Mets Continuing To Explore Rotation Market

By | at

The Mets are soon to add Luis Severino to their rotation, as they’re in the process of finalizing a $13MM contract with the longtime Yankee. That’s one of what’ll surely be multiple additions to the starting staff, as New York entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and José Quintana locked into rotation spots.

There’s no secret about their interest in NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the three-time winner of the Sawamura Award (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). Upwards of a dozen teams are in the mix for the 25-year-old righty, who seems likely to command the largest contract of any pure pitcher in this year’s class. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that some rival clubs consider the Mets the favorite on Yamamoto, but there’ll be no shortage of competition.

Unsurprisingly, the front office has its eye on multiple options on the open market. Michael Marino of Fantrax tweeted this week that the club was showing interest in left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Andy Martino of SNY echoes that sentiment, calling Montgomery “a more likely target” than fellow free agent southpaws Blake Snell and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Montgomery has been a popular name. He is also known to have drawn attention from the Red Sox, Yankees and incumbent Rangers. It stands to reason there are numerous additional suitors for the soon to be 31-year-old, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA across 188 2/3 innings. That’s a career-best mark, but he has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine while reaching 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons.

In addition to their Yamamoto pursuit, the Mets apparently also have some level of interest in Shota Imanaga. Martino adds that they’ll “explore” the market on the left-hander, the second-best pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason. Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars this week, opening a 45-day window for him to sign with a major league team.

While Imanaga isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, he has a chance to beat the five-year, $75MM pact which the Mets gave Senga last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so he’s one of the younger free agent arms available (albeit nowhere near as young as Yamamoto). He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA showing over 148 innings in NPB. Imanaga struck out 174 hitters, fanning a little over 29% of batters faced. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke projected him as a potential mid-rotation arm. Brandon Tew of Spots Info Solutions took a look at Imanaga’s repertoire yesterday, praising his command and the carry he generates on his low-90s four-seam fastball.

Each of Montgomery and Imanaga could land five or more years. A pact of that length would align with the Mets’ general competitive timeline. Team officials have made clear they won’t punt on the upcoming season but are targeting 2025 and beyond as a more realistic contention window.

To that end, Martino suggests they’re unlikely to be actively involved in trade discussions for a star player whose contract expires at the end of next season. He reports that the Mets are not in discussions with the Rays on Tyler Glasnow at present. (While Martino doesn’t specifically mention Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber, it’d be similarly logical for the team to mostly sit out those discussions as well.) They’re seemingly reluctant to relinquish significant future value for a rental on the heels of a fourth-place finish in a competitive NL East.

NPB’s Yokohama BayStars Post Shota Imanaga

By | at

The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball formally posted top left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League clubs on Monday, per the Kyodo News. It’s been known for months that Imanaga would be posted for big league clubs, but the timing of the move wasn’t clear until last Wednesday, when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Imanaga would be posted today.

Once MLB approves the posting and notifies teams that Imanaga is indeed available (a formality), that will kick off a 45-day negotiation window. One week ago today, NPB’s Orix Buffaloes posted ace and reigning three-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) Yoshinobu Yamamoto for MLB clubs. His negotiation window officially commenced the following morning. Imanaga will likely follow an identical pattern, with his negotiation window formally opening Tuesday morning.

Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, just wrapped up a second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his third in the past five seasons. He tossed 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the BayStars in 2023, punching out 29.5% of his opponents against a sensational 3.8% walk rate. Since 2019, he’s posted a collective 2.79 earned run average, 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. A 2022 no-hitter headlines that five-year run of excellence.

While he may not bet the unusually young power arm that his countryman Yamamoto is, Imanaga is nonetheless viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter in MLB. Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that he’d added some life to his fastball and was sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also has a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider, as examined in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions

Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a posting/release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six-plus weeks.

Shota Imanaga Likely To Be Posted By Monday

By | at

The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are planning to post left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League teams sometime between now and Monday, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While prior reporting had indicated that Imanaga might not be posted until fellow NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already signed, it instead appears that Imanaga will be posted about a week after Yamamoto. That creates some overlap in the two posting periods but also gives Imanaga at least a few days for teams that miss out on Yamamoto to explore the possibility of instead signing him.

While both Imanaga and Yamamoto are highly regarded, Imanaga is widely expected to sign the lesser contract in terms of both years and dollars. That’s due partially to the fact that Yamamoto is regarded as the superior pitcher, of course, but the primary reason for Yamamoto being projected to sign a deal more than twice as lucrative as Imanaga is the age gap between the two. Yamamoto just turned 25 in August; Imanaga turned 30 in September.

As such, Imanaga’s age is more in line with that of standard Major League free agents, who tend to reach the open market around 30-31 years of age. There are exceptions, but particularly among pitchers, a player reaching the market in his mid-to-late 20s is quite rare.

Although Imanaga doesn’t have the bonus allure of being an atypically young free agent, he nonetheless figures to command a weighty long-term deal himself. The southpaw’s 2023 season featured 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball — his second straight sub-3.00 mark and his third in five years. (The two other seasons “only” saw Imanaga post marks of 3.08 and 3.23.) Imanaga fanned 29.5% of his opponents this past season against a superlative 3.8% walk rate.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He isn’t necessarily overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted late in the year that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 season. He pairs that heater with a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider hybrid, as noted in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions.

Whenever Imanaga is posted, it will mark the start of a 45-day window for him to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six to seven weeks.

The Opener: Go, Nevin, Glasnow

By | at

With Thanksgiving Day drawing near, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Will more international players be posted soon? 

On Tuesday, the LG Twins of the KBO agreed to post right-handed pitcher Woo-Suk Go. The Korean posting system is similar to the Japanese posting system (by which Yoshinobu Yamamoto was recently made available) in that MLB teams have a 45-day window to negotiate with the player after he is officially posted. However, there is no word yet as to when the Twins will initiate the process and open Go’s window.

Shota Imanaga, one of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, is another international player whose posting timeline remains unclear. Earlier this month, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yokohama DeNA BayStars would post Imanaga on Monday, November 13. Needless to say, that date has come and gone, and the southpaw remains unavailable to MLB clubs. It’s possible that Imanaga and the BayStars are waiting for fellow NPB All-Star Yamamoto to sign and set the market, in which case it seems more likely that Go, a reliever, will be the next international player to be posted.

2. Will Phil Nevin coach in 2024?

Yesterday morning, the Padres announced the hiring of Mike Shildt as their new manager. The former Cardinals’ skipper beat out various other candidates for the role, including Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. However, the most high-profile finalist who lost out on the job was former Angels manager Phil Nevin. Eight different teams replaced their skippers this offseason, but Nevin, who spent just under two years at the helm in LA, did not land a new managerial gig.

However, if he is interested in returning to the dugout, there are still coaching vacancies around the league. Indeed, per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Nevin is in the mix to be the Mets’ bench coach under new manager Carlos Mendoza. The two worked together previously with the Yankees, and Nevin told the Post, “If they were to ask, I would do anything for Carlos.”

3. Is a Tyler Glasnow trade on the horizon?

Plenty of names have been floated in trade rumors this offseason, but perhaps none is as sure to be moved as Tyler Glasnow. The 30-year-old will earn $25MM this season, after which he is set to hit the open market. Given his high salary and impending free agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays will “definitely” trade him this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is similarly confident that Glasnow will be pitching for a new team in 2024.

With the free agent market for top-of-the-rotation arms potentially slowing down until Yamamoto signs, perhaps the trade market will start to heat up. The Rays would surely like some additional payroll clarity as soon as possible, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Glasnow traded sooner rather than later.

Cubs Interested In Shota Imanaga, “Have An Eye On” Corbin Burnes

By | at

“The Cubs would like to acquire a starter” to add to their rotation depth, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes, with the idea that a new arm would help make up for the departure of Marcus Stroman.  To this end, the Cubs are exploring options on both the free agent and trade fronts, including Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga and Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes.  As has been previously reported, Chicago is also in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, and of course the Cubs are one of the teams known to be interested in Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani’s UCL surgery will keep him off the mound in 2024.

The Red Sox are the only other team publicly linked to Imanaga’s market thus far, and technically, his market has yet to officially open.  The Yokonama DeNA Baystars haven’t yet posted Imanaga for Major League teams, though the move is expected any day now.  Once Imanaga is posted, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal with an MLB club, or else he’ll return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Imanaga has a long track record of success in NPB and on the international stage, including a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 innings with the Baystars, two NPB All-Star nods, and a World Baseball Classic gold medal as part of Japan’s championship team in 2023.  MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander, with Anthony Franco even predicting that Imanaga would land with the Cubs.

While $85MM isn’t small change, it does represent significantly less than Ohtani or Yamamoto will receive, making Imanaga an interesting backup plan for the Cubs (and other teams) if they don’t land one of the bigger names on the pitching market.  Five years/$85MM happens to be exactly what Chicago gave to another notable Japanese player in Seiya Suzuki two offseasons ago.  Though the Cubs did sign Dansby Swanson for $177MM last winter, Rogers notes that “under [president of baseball operations Jed] Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts, the Cubs have been measured in their dealings with free agents.  Setting Ohtani aside, the organization isn’t the type that gets into bidding wars.”

Burnes’ price tag would just cover the 2024 season, as the former NL Cy Young Award winner is set for free agency next winter and is projected for a $15.1MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Of course, Burnes would come at a different cost than just money, as Chicago would have to give up a significant trade package to obtain Burnes from the Brewers.  This might be more of a due diligence situation than a true pursuit, as Rogers writes that the Cubs just “have an eye” on Burnes should Milwaukee make him available in the first place.

A Burnes trade would also be contingent on many other factors, including the larger hurdle of whether or not the Brewers would specifically be open to trading Burnes within the NL Central.  As Rogers notes, Craig Counsell just surprisingly left the Brewers to become the new manager in Wrigleyville, only adding to the rivalry between the two clubs — and quite possibly the unlikelihood of the two sides coming together on any sort of trade, let alone a major swap.

Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon are the Cubs’ current top three starters, with youngsters Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the other two spots and veteran Drew Smyly on hand as either further depth or as a bullpen option.  On paper, this is already a surplus of arms, even before factoring in top prospect Cade Horton likely making his MLB debut in 2024, or Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian as further Triple-A depth.  However, adding another frontline starter would certainly solidify things for a Cubs team that wants to contend in 2024.  Signing Imanaga, for instance, might also give Chicago some flexibility in dealing from that young depth to address other needs.

Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Posting

By | at

It was already known that left-hander Shota Imanaga would be posted this offseason, and reports out of Japan yesterday indicated that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars have officially agreed to the left-hander’s request to explore the North American market.  “If someone has a dream he wants to realize, and we think he has the ability to achieve it, we want to support that,” DeNA executive Tatsuhiro Hagiwara told the Kyodo News and other outlets.

To be clear, the Baystars have only agreed to post Imanaga, and haven’t yet officially posted the southpaw for MLB teams.  Once Imanaga’s posting window properly opens, he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with Major League clubs.  If no deal is reached within the 45 days, Imanaga will return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season, and he’d have to wait until next offseason to again vie for a North American contract.

The 30-year-old Imanaga is one of the more intriguing players available this winter, and MLBTR ranked him 10th on our list of the top 50 free agents of the 2023-24 class.  We’re projecting a five-year, $85MM pact for Imanaga, befitting his status as one of Japan’s top pitchers of recent years.  Imanaga is a two-time NPB All-Star, has a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 career innings with the Baystars, and he won a gold medal with Japan’s championship team at this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Imanaga is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, so a big league team would have to give the Baystars a posting fee on top of whatever they end up paying Imanaga.  The posting fee is worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Imanaga’s contract, with the Baystars receiving more money depending on the total value.  For instance, if Imanaga did sign for that projected $85MM, his new Major League club would owe the Baystars $14.65MM.

Despite this impressive resume, Imanaga is only the second-best NPB starter on the market, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  MLBTR ranks Yamamoto third on our top 50 list and in line for a nine-year, $225MM commitment, based on Yamamoto’s ability and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  Yamamoto is also tied to the posting system via the Orix Buffaloes, and interestingly, Imanaga’s reps at Octagon might be aiming to keep their client out of Yamamoto’s shadow.  According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Baystars might not officially post Imanaga until after Yamamoto has already signed.

This strategy carries some risk.  For one, Yamamoto’s own posting window has yet to begin, though he is expected to be made available to MLB teams relatively soon.  Even if the Buffaloes posted Yamamoto tomorrow, he would still have until December 26 to land a contract, and it seems possible he might take closer to the 45-day maximum to finalize what will likely be one of the winter’s larger contracts.  For example, since many of the same big-market clubs are pursuing both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto’s camp might see if Ohtani could sign first, thus providing more clarity on Yamamoto’s market.

Should this scenario occur, Imanaga might not be posted until sometime in January, creating a bit of a time crunch.  A 45-day window would put Imanaga close to the start of Spring Training, if Imanaga and Octagon also needed time to negotiate with clubs to find an acceptable contract.  This would leave Imanaga with less time to not just find a new team, but to acclimate himself to his new continent, new city, and new coaching staff prior to Spring Training, and it would make sense that Imanaga would want time to properly ramp up for his debut MLB debut.

On the other hand, it isn’t an uncommon tactic for an upper-tier free agent to wait until later into the offseason to sign.  If Yamamoto and some other free agent pitchers and trade candidates are off the board by the time Imanaga is available to be posted, he might have fewer suitors in general, but the remaining suitors might be more desperate (and thus more willing to get into a bidding war) to land one of the few top-tier rotation options still unsigned.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By | at

The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela

By | at

NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander.  Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic.  Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.

MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors.  Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.

More from Fenway Park…

  • Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow might be joining the Red Sox front office as the head of pitching development, as per Peter Gammons (on X).  The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (also via X) has a contradictory report, saying there has been “zero contact” between the Cubs and Red Sox involving Breslow.  A veteran of 12 MLB seasons, Breslow has been working in Chicago’s front office for the better part of five years, becoming the team’s director of pitching in October 2019 and then receiving the AGM title in 2020.  Breslow spent parts of five seasons pitching for the Red Sox and he hails from Connecticut, plus Gammons notes that Breslow and his family live in nearby Newton, Massachusetts.
  • Justin Turner told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that he hasn’t yet decided about whether or not to exercise his $13.4MM player option for the 2024 season, as his focus is still on finishing the rest of the schedule.  As to the possibility of staying with the Sox in general, “I love playing in Boston and I’ve had a great experience here so obviously, it would be fantastic if I was still here,” Turner said.  Even at age 38, Turner is still a very solid bat, hitting .278/.348/.463 with 23 homers over 600 plate appearances in his first season with the Red Sox.  It figures that the Sox would love to bring Turner back, though they might have to sign him to a new contract altogether — as Cotillo notes, the odds are high that Turner will take the $6.7MM buyout of his option and test free agency again in search of a bigger deal.
  • Kenley Jansen is back on the active roster, as the Red Sox activated the closer from the seven-day COVID-related injured list today.  (Righty Zack Weiss was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.)  Like Turner, Jansen was also a productive signing from the 2022-23 offseason, joining the Sox on a two-year/$32MM deal and delivering 29 saves and a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings in his first season in Beantown.
  • The Red Sox rank 27th of 30 teams in second base bWAR this season, as Boston’s second basemen have combined for a sub-replacement level -0.1 bWAR.  The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looks at how the Sox might address the position next year, and how perhaps the easiest solution would be to give Ceddanne Rafaela some regular time at the keystone.  The top prospect has played a few games at second base already, and while the Sox prefer to see what Rafaela’s glove can do in center field, using Rafaela at second base in at least a part-time capacity would open up center field to see if Jarren Duran can build on his promising 2023 campaign.  As for Boston’s other in-house second base options, Jennings writes that the club hasn’t yet decided on whether or not to tender Luis Urias a contract this winter, as Urias is set for at least a minimal arbitration raise on his current $4.7MM salary.  As Jennings notes, the next front office boss will probably be the one making the call on Urias, and it is possible the Sox might non-tender the infielder and then look to re-sign him at a lower price.

NPB Players To Watch: September

By | at

The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

Yokohama DeNa Baystars To Post Shota Imanaga

By | at

The Yokohama DeNa Baystars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post left-hander Shota Imanaga this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The southpaw will be eligible to explore opportunities with clubs in Major League Baseball as a free agent, though any club that signs him would owe a posting fee to the Baystars.

Imanaga is a veteran in Japan, having just turned 30 years old on September 1. Over eight seasons, he has tossed 977 innings with a 3.18 earned run average while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 6.9%. He’s been ever better this year, with a 2.72 ERA over 122 1/3 innings, along with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. He also pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year, allowing two earned runs over six innings.

Here at MLBTR, Imanaga has been featured on all four editions of our NPB Players To Watch series, coming in at #3 in the first edition but #2 on each subsequent update. As noted by MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski in the first of that series, Imanaga doesn’t have an overpowering fastball but finds success thanks to his command and gets strikeouts with his changeup, which is close to a splitter. He also has a cutter, a curveball and a slider. He signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason.

Once Imanaga is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Baystars, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Baystars a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Baystars for 2024.

When he hits the market, Imanaga will add another interesting arm to a free agent class that is heavy on pitching. Another NPB star, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is expected to be in the mix, alongside other pitchers like Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Sonny Gray, while pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman have opt-outs and could jump into the mix as well.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top