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Shohei Ohtani

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Ohtani, Pentecost

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The Orioles figure to give top prospect Chance Sisco the opportunity to prove himself ready for regular MLB work next season, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that they’re still likely to add at least one veteran alternative on a minor league pact this winter. Caleb Joseph is in line to share the catching duties following a bounceback season, and the O’s also added 27-year-old Austin Wynns to the 40-man roster last week, though he’s yet to suit up for a big league game. Speculatively speaking, names like Jose Lobaton, Hector Sanchez and Chris Stewart could all be available on minor league deals this winter after lackluster showings in limited big league time in 2017.

Some more notes from around the AL East…

  • With Logan Morrison hitting the open market, the Rays are likely to sign a first baseman this offseason, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. However, they’ll likely do so “when the music stops,” suggesting that Tampa Bay will wait out the first-base market and see which of the numerous sluggers is left without a contract later in the offseason. That’d present the Rays with numerous bargain options — a strategy that worked well last offseason when they held out and waited until Feb. 7 to re-sign Morrison on a one-year, $2.5MM deal. Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana are the top names on the free agent market and will be considerably too expensive for the Rays’ tastes. They’re followed up by Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda, Mitch Moreland as well as slightly older options in Danny Valencia, Adam Lind, Mark Reynolds and Mike Napoli.
  • Topkin also notes that the Rays plan to make a “serious bid” for Shohei Ohtani, hoping that their willingness to let this year’s top pick, Brendan McKay, develop as both a pitcher and a hitter in the minor leagues will show Ohtani that they’re willing to let him try his hand as a genuine two-way player. Even the $20MM posting fee would seem to be a steep price for the Rays, though most clubs seem to be approaching Ohtani as a rare acquisition opportunity, so ownership could be willing to green light that expenditure. Signing with the Rays would require Ohtani to truly be prioritizing elements other than money, as the Rays can only offer $440,500 at present (though there’s still time for them to acquire more international dollars). Beyond that, of course, the Rays obviously aren’t a team that is well-positioned to sign him to an extension down the line.
  • Max Pentecost’s omission from the Blue Jays’ slate of 40-man roster additions surprised some, but Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that troubles with the former No. 11 overall pick’s shoulder caused the Jays to leave him unprotected. Pentecost was shut down near the end of the AFL, which could make it difficult for a team to select him or to carry him for the bulk of the 2018 season. Pentecost has undergone multiple surgeries since being drafted in ’14 and has managed to play just 30 of his 171 games at catcher, spending the bulk of his time as a DH in addition to some work at first base. “We’re continuing to work hard to help Max be in the best possible physical shape and baseball shape he can be in,” said GM Ross Atkins of Pentecost.

Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani Among Priorities For Twins

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Speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, Twins general manager Thad Levine confirmed that the team is in the market for major pitching upgrades. Levine revealed that the Twins are actively talking with the agents for available starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, among others, as well as representatives for various relievers (all Twitter links).  The executive specifically pointed to Darvish as “a priority,” and he used the same word to describe soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani.

“He’s a unique free agent, but we don’t know a lot about him personally yet,” Levine said of Ohtani. “It’s exciting for us because we have a chance to sign a player like him. He’s a top priority for us.”

The three-week sweepstakes to sign Ohtani, a Japanese pitching and hitting superstar, appears likely to commence at the start of December. Had the 23-year-old Ohtani waited until the age of 25 to come to the majors, he would have been in line to sign a mega-deal, which may have ruled out a serious Twins pursuit. But the collective bargaining agreement will limit Ohtani to a low-cost minor league contract this offseason, thereby giving all teams some chance to sign him if they’re willing to pay a $20MM posting fee to his Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, for his services. While money isn’t going to guide Ohtani’s decision this offseason, it’s notable anyway that the Twins have the third-most bonus pool space available ($3.245MM). That won’t hurt them in their chase, of course, but they’ll have to sell Ohtani on how he’d fit into their organization and city.

Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal. Landing the pair would be an enormous boon for anyone, including Minnesota, which snapped a six-year playoff drought in 2017 despite an underwhelming showing from its rotation. Twins starters ranked 19th in the majors in ERA (4.73) and 22nd in fWAR (7.7) last season, so the need for quality hurlers to complement Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios is obvious.

Considering Darvish could pull in the richest contract of the offseason, many would expect him to land outside of small-market Minnesota’s price range. However, the club is well positioned to make a bold strike in free agency this winter, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this month. The team itself seems to agree, judging by the established free agents it’s currently pursuing, and it’s worth noting that Levine is already familiar with Darvish from their time together in Texas.

When the Rangers landed Darvish out of Japan in 2012, Levine was their assistant GM. That experience might help during Ohtani’s recruitment, as could the fact that the Twins aren’t exactly set at designated hitter. By most accounts, Ohtani has enough offensive talent to collect regular at-bats in the majors, so he could emerge as the DH for a Minnesota team that only received average production there from Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas last season.

Shohei Ohtani’s Agent Sends Memo To MLB Teams

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With Shohei Ohtani’s trip to the open market approaching, the phenom’s agent sent a memo on Friday to all major league teams requesting written explanations in both English and Japanese on why they’d be the right fit for the right-handed ace/left-handed slugger, as the Associated Press first reported.

Ohtani’s lead representative, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, told teams not to include financial terms of a potential contract in their answers. But with Ohtani’s Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, primed to post him as early as Dec. 1, Balelo informed major league clubs that he’d like to receive their responses as soon as possible.

Here’s a rundown of the memo’s specifics, courtesy of Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

  1. “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter;
  2. “Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities;
  3. “Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities;
  4. “Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation;
  5. “A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization;
  6. “Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play;
  7. “Relevant marketplace characteristics.”

While nothing listed above is particularly surprising, it’s the first real look at the factors that will influence the ballyhooed Ohtani’s decision when he officially becomes free to sign with any major league team. Thanks to the rules in the collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old Ohtani will have to sign an inexpensive minor league contract this offseason, and the fact that there’s a fairly even financial playing field figures to lead to interest from every big league team. It’s worth noting, though, that the Rangers, Yankees, Twins, Pirates, Marlins and Mariners are entering the Ohtani sweepstakes in the most advantageous positions in terms of international bonus pool space.

Of those six clubs, the Rangers, Yankees and Mariners have had the most success reeling in Japanese stars in the past, which may help in their attempts to win the Ohtani sweepstakes, but this is setting up to be either a 30-team battle royale or something close to it. The major league franchise that outdoes the other 29 in courting Ohtani will have to pay a maximum $20MM posting fee to his Japanese team, though that’s a relative pittance to secure a potential two-way superstar who could dramatically alter an organization both on and off the field.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, Yanks, Sabathia, Mariners, Iwakuma

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A few notes from around the game:

  • Much could change during the highly anticipated courting process, but George A. King III of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are seen throughout the industry as the favorites to land soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees are in an enviable position when it comes to available pool space, though it’s clear money isn’t Ohtani’s primary concern. Whether Ohtani goes to the Yankees may affect left-hander CC Sabathia’s future with the club, King posits, as they’d have a quintet of capable starters on hand with the newcomer joining Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery. So, while Sabathia wants to re-sign with the Yankees, an answer on his future might not come until at least late December if he waits out the Ohtani derby.
  • If the Mariners bring back free agent righty Hisashi Iwakuma, it’ll likely be on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, Greg Johns of MLB.com suggests. The 36-year-old Iwakuma revealed this week that he’s weighing an offer to re-sign with Seattle, which declined his $10MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout at season’s end, and Johns expects him to accept it.
  • Power is more prevalent than ever in baseball, but the ability to control the strike zone and make quality contract are less common, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet observes. While 117 players racked up 20 or more home runs last season, only 25 hit .300 or better, leading Nicholson-Smith to note that hitting ability may now be the toughest-to-find offensive skill. The piece, which is worth checking out in full, includes quotes from general managers David Forst (Athletics), A.J. Preller (Padres), Neal Huntington (Pirates), Mike Rizzo (Nationals) and Michael Girsch (Cardinals) about the current offensive landscape.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto On Ohtani, Healy, Platoons, Relievers

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In the first episode of a new Mariners podcast, The Wheelhouse, general manager Jerry Dipoto joined host Aaron Goldsmith to discuss a plethora of topics regarding his team. The 41-minute, must-listen interview is packed with candid assessments of the Mariners’ roster, trade anecdotes and, perhaps most appealing to the general MLBTR audience, more than 15 minutes of talk on Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Dipoto doesn’t shy away from expressing his excitement to finally be able to talk about Ohtani now that the 23-year-old is going to be posted for big league clubs, and he’s frank in explaining his desire to make a serious run at signing the right-hander/slugger.

“We want to sell the Seattle experience,” says Dipoto. “What it means to the Japanese-American, our culture and how this organization has trended — and trended so positively — when we have a star Japanese player. And make no mistake — this is a star Japanese player. He’s talented. He’s gifted. He’s going to make some team a lot better.”

The GM goes on to acknowledge, of course, that Ohtani’s specific preferences when selecting a team remain unclear. It’s possible that Ohtani, for instance, would rather head to an organization that doesn’t have a storied history of Japanese stars so that he can form his own legacy, Dipoto suggests. For the time being, there’s not yet a great way to gauge his top priorities. There are countless variables that’ll determine where Ohtani lands, and while money doesn’t appear to be the primary factor, the Mariners will be on the lookout for means by which to acquire additional international funds to pad their offer to Ohtani.

To that end, Dipoto concedes that his trade of hard-throwing righty Thyago Vieira to the White Sox in exchange for international funds was “pretty much” done as a means of increasing his maximum offer to Ohtani. The Mariners also had a glut of pitchers on the roster, he notes (26 of the 39 players on the 40-man) and were in need of some maintenance before this week’s deadline to set the roster for the Rule 5 Draft, though that didn’t seem to be the primary motivation.

“We have made no bones about it in talking to other clubs,” Dipoto says of adding extra international money. “We’ve gathered as much as we can. … We are not going to leave a stone unturned in the efforts to do it again if the opportunity exists. We’ll be responsible in how we do it, but we understand that this is a one-time buying opportunity, and you have to be prepared. To me, the worst thing we can be is sitting on the sideline, being too conservative — sitting on our hands when an opportunity to change the history of your organization comes along, because that’s what this might be.”

The Mariners, Dipoto confirms, have just shy of $1.6MM to offer Ohtani at this point and have the capacity to acquire another roughly $2.3MM within the confines of MLB’s international bonus pool system. However, clubs are becoming less willing to part with international funding — hardly a surprise given not only Ohtani’s posting but also the new slate of prospects that are available to MLB clubs in the fallout from the Braves’ investigation (headlined, of course, by Kevin Maitan).

The Mariners have spent at least the past year working on their sales pitch to Ohtani, going so far as to prepare a “film on the merits of Seattle and the Mariners” as they seek different ways to pique his interest.

“This is maybe the most unique circumstance in baseball that I can recall,” Dipoto adds. “It is all about how you as a city, as an organization and as human beings appeal to an individual, rather than the final paycheck. In my lifetime, that’s really never been a thing.”

The Mariners, like most other clubs (presumably), view Ohtani as an immediately MLB-ready “plug-and-play difference maker” that doesn’t need a stop in the minors before pitching in a big league rotation. Dipoto notes that his team’s interest in signing Ohtani is so great that they’d be willing to play Nelson Cruz in the outfield a few times per week in order to free some DH at-bats for Ohtani on days he does not pitch.

With or without Ohtani, the Mariners’ lineup will have a different composition next season. The first major move of Seattle’s offseason was to flip Emilio Pagan and 17-year-old shortstop Alexander Campos to the Athletics in a trade for Ryon Healy, who will be the team’s new first baseman. Dipoto praises Healy’s lengthy track record of hitting, dating back to A-ball and even into his amateur days, noting that the Mariners have had interest in him since 2016. While Healy’s lack of walks doesn’t necessarily fit this front office’s typical blueprint for an offensive player, the GM expresses confidence that his new acquisition will be a positive contributor.

“Our ability to get on base may be a little more linked to the bat than we prefer, but he brings something that’s hard to find for us, and that’s cheap affordable power at a position that’s been difficult to fill,” says Dipoto. “…And that gives us one solution at an affordable rate with a player we hold for five more years — that allows us the ability to go focus our resources to fill needs in other areas.”

While Healy will be penciled in as the primary first baseman, his ability to play third base if needed held some appeal to the Mariners as well. Generally speaking, Dipoto voices a preference to avoid a necessity to rely heavily on strict platoons. The team still relishes the idea of acquiring versatile players that can handle multiple positions as a means of retaining roster flexibility, but taking up two roster spots to field one position is somewhat of an inefficiency that the M’s would prefer to move away from.

Seattle will also feature some changes in the bullpen, having traded Pagan and brought in right-hander Nick Rumbelow from the Yankees. Dipoto raves about Rumbelow’s performance in his return from Tommy John surgery this past season and praises him as a potential future setup man in the Seattle ’pen.

Rumbelow isn’t the first near-MLB ready player the Mariners have plucked from the Yankees, and Seattle will undoubtedly hope that he pans out similarly well. Both outfielder Ben Gamel and left-hander James Pazos have established themselves in Seattle, so much so that Dipoto notes that he gets asked about Pazos more than any other player in trade talks.

“You don’t find a lot of 26-year-old lefties who throw in the mid-90s, who are making close to league minimum, who have gone out and shown that they can be effective in the big leagues.”

Again, the entire interview is an excellent listen, with Dipoto sharing scouting stories on Ohtani, trade anecdotes, insight into the Mariners’ roster composition and some general insight into the various motivations behind his most recent set of trades. Fans of the Mariners and other clubs alike should find plenty of interest in the lengthy chat between Dipoto and Goldsmith.

MLB, MLBPA, NPB Reach “Tentative” Agreement On New Posting System

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9:53pm: Jim Allen of the Kyodo News hears that the current expectation is that Ohtani will formally be posted on Dec. 2 (Twitter link). That’d give teams until Dec. 23 to strike a deal with Ohtani, based on the three-week window reported by Sherman.

5:40pm: After a lengthy negotiation period, Major League Baseball, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball have reached a “tentative” agreement on a new posting system that will include this offseason and continue on into the next three offseasons, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

The agreement still must be ratified by the ownership of all 30 Major League teams, which won’t happen until next Friday according to Sherman. As such, the earliest that Shohei Ohtani can formally be posted for clubs will be next Friday — Dec. 1. Submarine righty Kazuhisa Makita has also requested that the Seibu Lions post him and is likely to be made available to MLB clubs by the new posting system as well.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the rules of the previous posting system will apply for this offseason (and Ohtani and Makita). In other words, the Fighters will set the maximum $20MM posting fee for Ohtani, and any club that is willing to meet that release fee will be able to negotiate with Ohtani and his reps at CAA.

Sherman tweets that the union pushed for a shorter negotiation window for Ohtani this offseason, to which NPB consented, so teams will have 21 days to work out a deal, though Ohtani will be considered an international amateur and thus be subject to international bonus pools. The Rangers ($3.535MM) have a slight edge over the Yankees ($3.5MM) for the largest pool, followed by the Twins ($3.245MM).

Previous reports have suggested that the three sides have been brokering a system in which the NPB team that posts a player will receive a sum that is equal to a percentage of the posted player’s contract with a new team. Sticking points in negotiations have included the date range from which NPB players can be posted — the MLBPA has been pushing for a brief posting window early in the offseason so as not to impede domestic free agency — as well as the possibility of the NPB team being able to pull the player back if it is not satisfied with the contract he signs.

According to Sherman, the new posting system will not have a pullback feature. Rather, NPB agreed to scrap that feature in favor of a graduated rate of return based on the overall size of the player’s contract. The scale is as follows, per Sherman:

  • For a Major League contract of $25MM or less, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract’s total value.
  • For a Major League contract of $25-50MM, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 17.5 percent of the contract’s total value.
  • For a Major League contract of $50MM or more, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 15 percent of the contract’s total value.

That creates some interesting scenarios, as it would actually be of greater benefit for an NPB club to see its former player sign for $24.5MM than $27MM and more beneficial for a former player to sign for $49.5MM than for $57MM. Beginning next offseason, NPB clubs will have from Nov. 1 through Dec. 5 to formally post a player, and negotiation windows will last for 30 days, Sherman further tweets.

The most important takeaway from the tentative agreement, obviously, is that it now seems clear Ohtani will indeed be posted and thus made available to big league clubs. The further delay in his formal posting means that Ohtani could continue to further delay the development of the market for more expensive arms on the domestic free-agent market, but tonight’s agreement at least gets the ball rolling toward some resolution on the most intriguing international free agent in recent history.

Twins Have Explored Trades For Gerrit Cole, Jake Odorizzi

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The Twins are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades and have already been linked to top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, but they’re also poking around the trade market. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Minnesota has spoken to the Pirates about Gerrit Cole and also engaged the Rays in discussions on Jake Odorizzi (Twitter links). Both righties come with two remaining years of team control.

It’s not at all clear that the Pirates intend to aggressively shop Cole this offseason, though as a low-payroll club Pittsburgh always has to willing to at least entertain offers for its top talents. Cole certainly falls into that category, though he had somewhat of a down season in 2017. The former No. 1 overall pick logged 203 innings with the Bucs, marking his second career 200-inning campaign, but he also posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA. That was largely attributable to to a massive spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio (15.9 percent), which led to a career-worst 1.37 HR/9 mark.

However, Cole’s 2017 season also came with cause for optimism. The 27-year-old saw both his strikeout and walk rates bounce back from 2016, as he averaged 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while maintaining a solid ground-ball rate (45.8 percent) and averaging 96 mph on his fastball. Cole’s average exit velocity of 85.4 mph ranked in the top quarter of the league (100th out of 438 pitchers, min. 100 batted-ball events). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs Cole for a $7.5MM salary next season.

As for Odorizzi, he’ll turn 28 in March and recently wrapped a season in which he tossed 143 1/3 innings with a 4.14 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a more troubling 1.88 HR/9. Odorizzi has seen his walk and home-run rates increase each year since 2015. He’s averaged 30 starts per year in the past four seasons but has also averaged just 167 innings per year in that time. He’s projected to earn 6.5MM next year. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in previewing the Rays’ offseason, Tampa Bay has a pretty notable payroll crunch, which could lead to plenty of Odorizzi chatter this season given his projected salary and relatively limited club control.

Of course, the Twins have one of the largest figures that any team can offer Japanese star Shohei Ohtani ($3.245MM), and Berardino tweets that the team is indeed preparing its pitch for the potential ace. He also notes that Minnesota is focusing more on the rotation than the bullpen. Top-tier names like Wade Davis and Greg Holland aren’t likely to be on the Twins’ radar, he notes, though second-tier options will be in play as the offseason wears on.

Latest On NPB-MLB Posting Negotiations

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Last night, we learned that the Major League Baseball Player’s Association had extended its deadline to finalize an agreement regarding the transfer system for players moving between Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball. With a new union-imposed stopping point at 8pm EST today, the parties in interest — including the three entities just mentioned as well as NPB’s member teams, individually — are expected to continue negotiating in hopes of finding agreement on posting rules that will allow NPB clubs to make certain players available to MLB teams — including, especially, young Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.

We’ll use this post to track and analyze the key news on talks as it hits the wire:

  • There’s general optimism that something will get done, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Sherman tweets that the talks are “down to [a] few items,” but notes that the signals are that tonight’s deadline is a firm one for reaching agreement.

Earlier Updates

  • There has been a critical potential settlement of one major sticking point, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). MLB and MLBPA have resolved their differences regarding the question of when NPB teams would have the ability to “pull back” posted players who do not achieve a contract that would convey sufficient transfer fee value to their would-be former organization. This provision — the details of which remain unknown — will still need to be considered by NPB and its teams, of course, but resolution of the matter might conceivably put the parties on track to finalizing a deal.
  • “Pull back” rights are of particular importance to the system’s operation because the new rules under contemplation would allow NPB teams to collect a percentage of a contract’s guarantee as the transfer fee, rather than a fixed transfer amount determined before the player in question tries to work out an agreement with a MLB club. Understandably, NPB teams are interested in protecting themselves if a player’s market does not develop as hoped, while the union is likely concerned with the possibility that too much latitude might engender disruptions in the broader player market, potentially harming MLB free agents.
  • While that report generally strikes an optimistic tone, Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears that “big hurdles” remain. Whether those revolve around the pull-back issue or others is not clear at this moment.

MLBPA Extends MLB-NPB Posting Negotiation Deadline

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Negotiations regarding a new posting agreement between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have been postponed, according to an announcement from the MLB Player’s Association. While the MLB and NPB seem largely on the same page, the union has the right to authorize any agreement and has engaged on the subject.

It’s a one-day extension at this time, per the MLBPA announcement. Last we heard, the union had set a deadline of 8pm EST today to get something done. With issues still remaining, though, the sides have evidently decided to keep talking for at least another day. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) reported earlier that there was optimism on a deal, but that some “gaps” still remained.

The news is critical, of course, for the MLB move sought by Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. For now, he remains in flux, with virtually every major-league organizations watching closely to see if and when he’ll formally be made available.

There appear to be a few areas which the sides need to sort out before we’ll learn Ohtani’s fate. Passan cites some bargaining over the timeline of a MLBPA-proposed window during which NPB teams can make players available for transfer, though that seems to be something where some give-and-take can result in agreement. Jim Allen of Kyodo News, meanwhile, hears of a more fundamental dispute over the question whether posted players can be pulled back if their ultimate contract does not result in a sufficient fee to their NPB club. (Twitter link.) Because the new proposed system would allow the Japanese team to receive a percentage-based fee, rather than the fixed sum that previously was utilized, the question of revocability of posting is of added importance.

MLBPA Sets Monday Deadline For Posting System Negotiations

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Nov. 19: Monday’s deadline is set for 8 p.m. ET, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Nov. 17: MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that he expects an agreement to be reached (link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). “I don’t sense that this is a disconnect with the union,” said Manfred. “These are relatively small issues. … I don’t think they’re earth-shattering.”

In fact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the union’s issues with the proposed agreement aren’t necessarily related to Ohtani. The union is on board with extending the current agreement for one year but takes umbrage with several components of the system that would go into place next offseason.

The system, as currently constructed, would allow NPB teams to post players throughout the majority of the offseason; the union, not wanting domestic free agency to be held up by the uncertainty of whether Japanese players will be posted, wants NPB teams to make that call by Nov. 15.

The new proposal also awards the NPB team a sum that is equal to 20 percent of the contract the player signs with an MLB team (not 20 percent of his actual contract, though) and allows the NPB club to rescind its posting of a player if it is unsatisfied with the contract to which he agrees. Rosenthal notes that MLB allowed the pullback provision due to NPB concerns that a player could sign a small deal and then sign a much larger extension within a year or two.

Beyond the extension matter, though, it’s easy to see where NPB might take issue to the 20 percent system without the ability to withdraw its player. The new system bears some similarity to the previous blind bidding system. Under that iteration of the posting system (which is still in place with the Korea Baseball Organization), all 30 teams were allowed to submit blind bids for posted players. That player’s NPB team would then have the ability to accept or reject the top bid.

There’s no word yet on how NPB views the MLBPA’s wish to remove the “pullback” component, but it’s not hard to imagine they’d be reluctant to agree without that luxury. With no way of knowing precisely how MLB clubs would value a player, an NPB club would be taking a significant risk by posting one of its stars and then merely hoping that an MLB team would be willing to pay enough to make the posting of said player profitable.

Both the blind bidding system and the current $20MM maximum give NPB teams some degree of up-front knowledge of how they’ll be compensated; without the “pullback” system in this scenario, they’d effectively be rolling the dice on how MLB teams value their top talents. In the case of a legitimate superstar, there’d be little reason for concern. Rather, there’d be upside, as clubs with that rare caliber of player would stand to gain considerably more than the current $20MM maximum. But in the case of above-average players that aren’t necessarily at the Ohtani or Yu Darvish level, that system would be substantially more risk-laden and may simply prevent NPB clubs from posting all but star-level talents.

Nov. 16: The MLBPA has set a Monday deadline to come to an agreement on a new posting system, Heyman now tweets. If the union sticks to that deadline, MLB clubs will have clarity on Ohtani’s availability as much as two weeks earlier than Halem initially suggested.

Nov. 15, 10:10pm: The MLBPA is still holding up negotiations, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman. While MLB, NPB and the MLBPA are presently at a “standstill,” there’s still optimism that an agreement will eventually be worked out. Heyman reported last week that the union had significant concerns regarding the fact that the Fighters would stand to receive a $20MM windfall while Ohtani himself would only be compensated at a maximum level of about $3.5MM.

12:12pm: The hope is that Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will finalize a new posting system at some point in early December, MLB Chief Legal Officer Dan Halem tells reporters including Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Until that comes to pass, Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani will not be able to begin the process of moving to the majors. At this point, an agreement on the system seems to be all that stands in the way of what promises to be a fascinating posting.

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