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Shelby Miller

D-Backs Activate Miller, Place Peralta On DL, Option Drury

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In a series of roster moves, the D-Backs announced on Monday that right-hander Shelby Miller has been activated from the disabled list, while outfielder David Peralta has once again been placed on the 15-day DL — this time due to a lower back strain. Additionally, Arizona has optioned infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury to Triple-A Reno and recalled outfielder Socrates Brito in his place.

[Related: Updated Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart]

Miller returns to the Diamondbacks after landing on the DL last month with a sprained index finger in his pitching hand. Both team and player will be hoping for markedly better results this time around, as Miller’s woeful start to the season was one of the most talked-about early slumps of the year. In 45 2/3 innings, the 25-year-old posted a dreadful 7.09 ERA and averaged just 5.9 K/9 against an alarming 5.7 BB/9 with a 40 percent ground-ball rate that represented a significant decrease from last season’s career-best 47.7 percent. Miller’s struggles have contributed to a 4.72 ERA from Arizona starters that is currently tied with the Royals for 23rd in the Majors. Certainly, that wasn’t the result that Arizona execs Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa were expecting when signing Zack Greinke and trading a king’s ransom for Miller this offseason, but an injury to Rubby De La Rosa and struggles from lefties Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin have all contributed to the problem.

Peralta’s trip to the disabled list will mark the second of the season for the 28-year-old. He’d previously missed about three weeks due to inflammation in his right wrist. It’s not immediately clear how long he’ll need to be out of action, but he’d been out of the lineup since last Wednesday as it is, and the D-backs seemingly no longer felt that they could play with a short bench. While he’s hitting just .259/.308/.442 on the season, Peralta’s injury further depletes the D-backs’ outfield depth, as A.J. Pollock and Chris Owings are each already on the disabled list.

A month ago, it might’ve seemed ridiculous to suggest that Drury would be optioned to the minors; as of May 20, he was hitting .309/.340/.547 and had forced his way into an everyday role — splitting time between the outfield, third base and, occasionally, second base. However, Drury has batted a paltry .200/.257/.262 since that time and, more troublesomely, struck out 21 times in 70 plate appearances (30 percent). The demotion will allow him to get everyday at-bats in the minors while giving Brito another crack at big-league pitching.

There are also some potential service time implications for Drury, who is up to 112 days of Major League service between his 2015 debut and 2016 season to date. He’ll need another 60 days on the big league roster to reach a full year of service, so the length of his stay in the minors will be worth monitoring. It’s also worth noting that the fact that Arizona chose to option Drury certainly doesn’t indicate that he’s fallen out of favor in any way; a report from just last night indicated that the versatile 23-year-old is held in high enough regard within the organization that the D-backs would likely ask the Mets for a controllable piece such as Zack Wheeler in a trade to acquire Drury.

As for Brito, his overall minor league batting line isn’t overly impressive, but he’s been on a tear over his past 20 games, batting .393/.409/.643 with a dozen extra-base hits (five doubles, five triples, two homers). From a service time standpoint, Brito would fall shy of a full year even if he sticks on the big league roster for the remainder of the season.

NL Notes: Wong, Cubs’ Pen, Miller, Wood

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The Cardinals have recalled second baseman Kolten Wong from Triple-A Memphis after optioning him to the minors just 10 days ago. In his place, center fielder Jeremy Hazelbaker has been optioned to Memphis. Wong’s demotion was the culmination of a marked decline and came just three months after he’d signed a five-year, $25.5MM contract extension. After hitting just .222/.306/.286 through his first 144 plate appearances and losing the second base job — Matt Carpenter is manning that position with Jhonny Peralta handling third and rookie Aledmys Diaz playing shortstop — Wong went on an absolute tear in Triple-A; in 34 plate appearances there, he batted .429/.529/.929 with four homers while seeing quite a bit of action in center field. Hazelbaker was one of the most talked-about players in the Majors in April when he batted .317/.357/.683, but the 28-year-old has come back to earth and seen his playing time dwindle since.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says that he “would love” to add a high-quality bullpen arm, MLB.com’s Cody Stavenhagen tweets. But the veteran executive also made clear that he won’t rush to the phones just because the bullpen has had some hiccups of late. Chicago looks to be set most everywhere else, so it makes sense that the club would look for ways to add impact in its relief corps, but there’s really no sense of urgency given the team’s excellent start.
  • Shelby Miller will return to the major league hill for the Diamondbacks on Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets. Miller had been on the DL for a finger injury, though he was also looking to right the ship after an abysmal start to his career in Arizona. If the club has any hope of clawing back into the postseason picture, it’ll need Miller to turn things around.
  • Dodgers lefty Alex Wood will begin throwing next week, a bit ahead of schedule, as JP Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group reports. The inflammation in his elbow has responded as hoped, it seems, though the real test will come as he ramps back up. Wood emphasized that he doesn’t have any structural issues. Still, he might not return to competitive action until mid-July, per the report, and that’s assuming he stays on a positive course. Presumably, it’ll be at least a bit longer before he’d be ready for the majors. Los Angeles has several key arms at various stages of the rehab pipeline.

NL Notes: D-backs, Dodgers, Pirates

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The Diamondbacks had their eyes on a playoff berth during the offseason when they signed Zack Greinke for $200MM-plus and traded a haul for fellow right-handed starter Shelby Miller. Things haven’t gone according to plan for Arizona so far this season, however, as the team has stumbled to a 27-37 start. The rotation, with its 5.00 ERA, has played a big role in the club’s fourth-place NL West mark. General manager Dave Stewart opened up about the starters’ struggles to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, saying, “I don’t think it’s any surprise that I am disappointed in the way that we’re pitching. I would imagine that at some point this is all going to pull together and the end result is going to be good.” Stewart added that he doesn’t think the Diamondbacks’ front office handled the assembly of the rotation poorly; rather, he believes the starters have simply underachieved. “No way I expected us to be 11 games below .500 or 11 games out of first place at this point based on what I know we are as a baseball team and what I know we are as a pitching staff,” he stated. Encouragingly, Greinke has rebounded from a rough start to resemble his usual ace self in recent outings, having combined for 16 straight scoreless frames over his previous two starts.

More from Arizona and two of its National League counterparts:

  • Miller is one more rehab start away from coming off the disabled list and rejoining the Diamondbacks, reports Jake Rill of MLB.com. Before going on the shelf May 27 with a right index finger sprain, Miller threw 45 innings of 7.09 ERA ball and struck out just 30 hitters against 29 walks. In a High-A rehab start Thursday, the 25-year-old fanned 11 and didn’t issue any free passes. “You’re facing A-ball guys, so you can’t really base too much off of what you do, but moreso past the numbers was how I felt, and I felt good mechanically,” Miller said. “Everything felt a little bit smoother and simpler.”
  • Dodgers right-handed prospect Frankie Montas has gone from a candidate to help their bullpen this year to a potential near-term rotation option, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Montas, whom the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox over the winter, has performed brilliantly in multiple Triple-A starts and will continue to increase his workload at that level. If he keeps faring well, Montas could eventually join LA’s rotation and replace 19-year-old Julio Urias, who’s on an innings limit.
  • Thirty-five of the Pirates’ 41 draft picks this year are from the college or junior college ranks, and general manager Neal Huntington expects the Bucs to continue going in that direction in the future. “It’s not a strategy. It’s the reality of the new system,” he told Adam Berry of MLB.com. “It gets harder and harder to get high school players. As the industry shifts, you’ve seen high school players go earlier and earlier if they’re signable. You’ve got guys that are coming off the board earlier than they would in certain situations because they are signable high school players.” Pittsburgh did grab high schoolers early, drafting three with its first five selections.

Diamondbacks Place Shelby Miller, Rubby De La Rosa On DL

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The Diamondbacks will place struggling righty Shelby Miller on the 15-day DL with a “right finger sprain,” as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported (via Twitter). Arizona also added fellow staff member Rubby De La Rosa to the DL with elbow inflammation, adding to the pitching concerns.

Miller, 25, was acquired from the Braves over the winter with hopes that he’d join Zack Greinke to form an imposing 1-2 punch atop the Snakes’ staff. Instead, he has fallen apart since arriving in Arizona. In 45 2/3 innings over ten starts, Miller has surrendered 7.09 earned runs per nine while recording an untenable 30:29 K/BB ratio. He’s been torched with the long ball while exhibiting a 1.5 mph drop in velocity as against the average fastball he threw over a successful 2015 season.

It appears that Miller’s DL stint will arise as a result of a finger issues he’s been battling of late after scraping his hand on the mound after releasing pitches. But it’s hard to ignore the role that his ugly start has played in the decision, and that could impact his progress back toward the majors.

Arizona desperately needs to get Miller on track. The club entered the day seven games under .500 after a winter in which it dropped over $200MM on Greinke and gave up three significant assets — center fielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair, and top overall 2015 draft pick Dansby Swanson — for the rights to Miller.

The still-youthful righty is owed $4.35MM this year and has two more seasons of arb control remaining. But the Diamondbacks will need him to pitch like the front-of-the-line arm they thought they were getting for that trade to look like anything but a bust. Of course, that may have been asking too much of Miller even at the time the deal was struck.

A timetable on Miller is wholly unclear at present. Conceivably, he could rest up and miss the minimum fifteen-day stretch. It could be, though, that the organization will spend some time looking for a fix, possibly sending Miller out on a rehab assignment to get some work in before he returns.

With Miller officially out of the rotation for the time being, the D-Backs will be even more stretched. The club surely hoped its rotation would be a strength, but Greinke and Patrick Corbin have also fallen shy of expectations — albeit nowhere near to the same extent as Miller — while De La Rosa and Robby Ray have been solid but largely unspectacular.

De La Rosa tells Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (via Twitter) that he expects to miss a month. There does not appear to be any concern that he’ll need surgery, which is certainly good news. But the injury looks to be significant, and it’s always troubling to see a young pitcher dealing with elbow troubles.

The organization announced several other roster moves, too. Among them, Josh Collmenter was activated from his DL stint. Also coming up is young slugger Peter O’Brien, as are righties Dominic Leone and Silvino Bracho. The club will need to promote new rotation options early next week, with former top prospect Archie Bradley set to get another shot at the majors.

Bradley has scuffled in two outings earlier this year, but has been better at the Triple-A level. O’Brien, who has shifted from catcher to outfielder, made a brief major league debut last year. He’s put up a stellar .306/.330/.601 batting line in 182 plate appearances at Triple-A.

Injury Notes: A-Rod, Teixeira, Shelby, C.J., Forsythe, Flores

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Alex Rodriguez is back in the Yankees’ lineup after a quick rehab stint, but fellow veteran slugger Mark Teixeira is still out. It remains to be seen whether Teixeira will eventually require a DL stint, but for now he’s simply taking some time and waiting for a cortisone shot to take effect, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets. An MRI seemingly cleared him of any new neck issues, ESPNNewYork.com’s Andrew Marchand tweets, so it seems to be an optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, the Yanks have placed southpaw Chasen Shreve on the DL while his left shoulder is checked out, Hoch also tweets.

Here are a few more injury notes from around the game:

  • Shelby Miller continues to be limited by a finger injury, Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale said today, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Already struggling on the hill, Miller’s difficulties were exacerbated when he scraped his hand on the dirt in his follow-through. Hale “still not where we’d like it to be,” which Piecoro suggests could set the stage for a DL stint. The 25-year-old owns an unsightly 7.09 ERA in 45 2/3 innings on the season, with just thirty strikeouts to go with 29 walks. When asked whether Miller could be sent to the minors, GM Dave Stewart didn’t reveal much but also didn’t rule out the idea, as Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com tweets. “We want to get him on track the best way we can,” said Stewart. “We will figure it out and do what’s needed.”
  • Angels southpaw C.J. Wilson made his rehab debut yesterday, as Pete Marshall of the Orange County Register writes. The 35-year-old is one of several hurlers filtering back up towards the majors for the Halos, which could eventually lead to some interesting roster decisions. For now, he says his command and mechanics were in a good place, and didn’t suggest that his balky left arm was a problem. It’s certainly promising that Wilson was able to work up to 56 pitches while lasting into the fifth inning. He hopes to make it back to the majors by early to mid-June.
  • Also potentially returning in the middle of next month is Logan Forsythe of the Rays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). His shoulder has improved to the point where he’s able to take grounders, leading to some hope that he could join the Rays at some point after they wrap up an upcoming road trip.
  • Mets infielder Wilmer Flores appears ready for activation after a rehab game at Double-A, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets. The 24-year-old was off to a slow start, with a .180/.255/.280 slash, before heading to the DL with a hamstring strain. New York lost first baseman Lucas Duda, and Flores could conceivably be part of the solution — with the team’s trade plans somewhat dependent upon how much it trusts Flores and other internal options.

Pitcher Notes: S. Miller, Dodgers, Storen, Boxberger

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The Diamondbacks made one of the offseason’s most criticized moves when they sent a significant haul of young talent to Atlanta for right-hander Shelby Miller. One month into the season, the deal looks even worse for the Diamondbacks than its detractors thought it did at the time. Two of the players they gave up, righty Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, have gotten off to impressive starts in the Braves organization. Miller, meanwhile, threw 19 2/3 innings in April and yielded 19 earned runs while walking one fewer hitter (15) than he struck out (16). Regarding Miller’s early difficulties, D-backs general manager Dave Stewart told MLB Network Radio (Twitter link) that expectations are weighing down the 25-year-old. “Shelby Miller is really just feeling some pressure of the trade,” Stewart said.

Here’s the latest on a few more pitchers from around baseball:

  • Blue Jays reliever Drew Storen’s horrid April (eight innings, 14 hits, nine earned runs) won’t deter John Gibbons from continuing to rely on him, the manager told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. “I plan on just throwing him out there. You’ve got to. Otherwise you’re not very good if he’s not a key guy. The good ones, they all learn how to survive and make adjustments,” Gibbons said. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Storen’s average fastball velocity fell from 94 mph last year to 91.9 in April. On the bright side, he struck out seven batters against just one walk during the season’s first month.
  • Cuban right-hander and offseason Dodgers signing Yaisel Sierra made his U.S. debut Saturday in a Single-A start and struck out seven hitters in four innings, though he allowed eight base runners (six hits, two walks) and three runs, according to Pete Marshall of the San Bernardino Sun. Sierra’s fastball sat in the low 90s and topped out at 94, which is the normal range for the 24-year-old. “I wasn’t good, I wasn’t bad,” he said of his performance.
  • Dodgers left-hander Alex Wood had his best start of the year in a 5-1 loss to the Padres on Friday, throwing seven innings of five-hit, one-run ball while striking out nine and walking one. Wood’s encouraging outing came after a few days of working on a mechanical adjustment, writes Jack Baer of MLB.com. Wood’s delivery became easier to repeat, leading to better command, as a result of lowering his foot during his stride. “When I stride out, my foot off the ground has been fairly higher than it has been in the past,” he said. “It’s something that I thought was the last piece of the puzzle, in terms of my timing and getting my consistency back.” Wood’s performance against the Padres dropped his season ERA from 6.00 to 4.82 and increased his K/9 from a paltry 5.1 to 6.75.
  • Rays closer Brad Boxberger continues making progress in his recovery from core muscle repair surgery on March 17 and should return to the majors later this month after a rehab assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Boxberger went 41 of 47 on save opportunities last season and put up a 3.71 ERA, 10.57 K/9 and 4.57 BB/9 in 63 innings.

Quick Hits: Granderson, Molina, Braun, Capps

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides his ten favorite transactions of the winter thus far, with the Braves’ haul in the Shelby Miller trade topping the list. For an additional look back at the market action that’s already in the books, Steve Adams and I discussed a few under-the-radar acquisitions that we liked in the most recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast.

Here are a few more notes as camp approaches:

  • Upon arriving at Spring Training today, Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson told reporters, including ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, that team doctors have told him that his surgically repaired thumb is “all good to go.” Granderson went under the knife in November to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb and spent about a month and a half in a brace, but he appears to be mostly back up to speed now. As Rubin notes, Granderson is again projected to be the Mets’ primary leadoff hitter, though his struggles against left-handed pitching would seem to create a reasonable opportunity to get Juan Lagares into the lineup.
  • Likewise, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has had his cast removed and is beginning to strengthen his own thumb, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch writes. The veteran’s importance to his club is hard to overstate, and he says he’s going to try to be ready by Opening Day. He was delayed when the injured digit required a second surgery, so a full recovery by the start of the season may be a big ask.
  • The Brewers are weighing a move of Ryan Braun back to left field, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. It seems as if the organization will weigh several options, but getting Domingo Santana and his live arm into right field would appear to have some appeal.
  • Right-handed reliever Matt Capps is preparing a comeback bid, agent Paul Kinzer tells Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The former Pirates, Nationals, and Twins closer hasn’t worked in the bigs since 2012 while struggling with health issues. He did not appear in the regular season at all last year after spending camp with the Braves.

NL East Notes: Freeman, Peterson, Swanson, Groome, Storen

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The Braves concluded their final FanFest at Turner Field earlier today, writes Jon Cooper for MLB.com. The club is set to open SunTrust Park next season. In the meantime, they’ll try to rapidly rebuild in time for the new park. Here’s more about the Braves and other NL East clubs:

  • Freddie Freeman is finally pain free, he told reporters including Cooper. The lefty first baseman has dealt with a slow to heal right wrist injury. He managed a career worst 481 plate appearances last season, although he still hit reasonably well – .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs. While many thought the Braves would trade Freeman, he’s still just 26. If the club turns around as quickly as they aim to, he’ll still be in his prime.
  • Another injured Brave, Jace Peterson, is also once again pain free, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson injured his thumb in late May and played through the injury for the remainder of the season. His .265/.340/.318 line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when he sustained the injury. However, it was slightly better than the .230/.305/.341 slash he put up over the rest of the season. Peterson has an interesting blend of skills. He could eventually develop into a sneaky-good utility player. He’s currently atop the depth chart at second base.
  • Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez hinted that we’ll see top prospect Dansby Swanson sooner rather than later, per a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Braves shortstop Erick Aybar is under contract through the end of this season. In my view, the club may be hoping Swanson can advanced quickly enough to join the team in early 2017 – if not sooner. After signing with the Diamondbacks last summer, Swanson had 99 plate appearances in Low-A, hitting .289/.394/.482. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the makings of a fast moving prospect. He was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona.
  • Former Phillies ace Cole Hamels recently had the opportunity to meet with potential first draft pick Jason Groome, writes Matt Gelb of Philly.com. Of course, the Phillies hold that first overall selection and are said to be considering Groome. The 17-year-old New Jersey native already possesses mid-90s velocity with a promising curve and changeup. Hamels had simply advice for Groome: “stay healthy and you are going to be golden.” Of course, Hamels also had some more actionable advice. He offered the contact information of a motivational speaker he regularly talks to before starts.
  • Earlier today on MLB Network Radio, Drew Storen’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen said he and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had a “unique level of transparency” following the trade for Jonathan Papelbon. The deal was not the first time the Nationals opted to replace Storen as the closer. The meaning behind Van Wagenen’s comment is somewhat vague. Presumably, both agent and GM had a candid talk about Storen’s role in the organization. Now Storen is turning the page as a member of the Blue Jays.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday

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The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Onto the agreements…

  • Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
  • Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
  • Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
  • The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
  • Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
  • The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
  • Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
  • The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
  • Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
  • The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
  • Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
  • Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
  • Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
  • Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
  • The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
  • Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
  • Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
  • The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
  • The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
  • Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).

There are plenty more after the jump:

Read more

Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.

In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.

Dallas Keuchel

The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.

In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .

Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.

Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.

Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.

Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.

Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.

Matt Harvey

It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.

Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.

It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.

It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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