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Shelby Miller

Latest On Shelby Miller

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We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).

Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.

One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.

Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.

Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward

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ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price’s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.

Some more highlights from Olney’s column…

  • Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
  • The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
  • The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
  • The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
  • The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.

Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler

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6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.

Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).

6:40pm: Shelby Miller’s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.

Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.

Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.

The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.

Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest

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Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.

The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)

Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.

One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.

Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.

Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…

  • The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder.  Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening.  It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere.  I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
  • The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel.  That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season.  Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
  • Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros’ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration.  We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
  • Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation.  “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it.  Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
  • The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
  • Though Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader.  As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
  • Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
  • Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League.  The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services.  The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
  • John Boggs, Trevor Cahill’s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”

Trade Notes: Giles, Cubs-Braves Talks, Ozuna, Lind

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While the Phillies are downplaying the possibility of trading Ken Giles this offseason, there’s an expectation among other teams that he’ll be dealt either this winter or in July, according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Stark heard that the asking price on Giles is steep — at least two or three high-ceiling prospects — and that the Phillies are willing to hang onto him if their price isn’t met. My first thought upon seeing the Craig Kimbrel trade return was to wonder what type of haul the Phillies could receive in exchange for Giles. While Giles hasn’t established himself to the level that Kimbrel has, of course, he’s still earning just over $500K per season, won’t be arbitration-eligible for two more years and can be controlled through 2020. The Phillies are within their rights to seek a huge return.

Here’s more on the trade market:

  • The Cubs and Braves have had talks regarding Atlanta’s controllable, MLB-level pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). That would appear to involve Julio Teheran and/or Shelby Miller, as it’s hard to imagine Chicago having interest in any other Braves starters for immediate MLB jobs. Rosenthal writes that the Cubs are “doing background work” on somewhere around a dozen rotation options, while colleague Jon Morosi has said that the team is in contact with nearly the same number of free agent starters. Meanwhile, the Braves are looking to get young position players back if they ship out arms, per Rosenthal.
  • As we’ve heard suggested previously, the Marlins are asking other clubs for young pitching in return for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports (links to Twitter). It’s always seemed likely that Ozuna would be dealt, as MLBTR explained in its post on the club’s offseason outlook, and one of Crasnick’s sources confirmed that the sentiment is held around the league. “I’d be surprised if they keep him,” said an anonymous executive. “Loria clearly can’t stand the guy and everybody knows it.”
  • There’s “lots of activity” on Brewers first baseman (and prospective DH) Adam Lind, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. The righty-masher could end up being the next veteran asset shipped out of Milwaukee, says Rosenthal, and that certainly wouldn’t be surprising.

Giants, Dodgers Have Expressed Interest In Shelby Miller

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The Giants and Dodgers have “checked in” on Braves righty  Shelby Miller, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. We already heard recently of interest from another NL West club, the Diamondbacks, though those talks apparently did not progress (Twitter link).

It’s not entirely clear at this point what level of interest the Braves have in dealing the 25-year-old righty. He re-emerged last year in Atlanta after being acquired in the Jason Heyward trade, contributing 205 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. MLBTR projects Miller to earn $4.9MM in his first of three trips through arbitration.

The Braves have already made clear that they’ll trade just about anyone on their roster, after a major sell-off last year and recent send-off of shortstop Andrelton Simmons. GM John Coppolella has said that the team will not trade first baseman Freddie Freeman, but it seems plausible to think that any other players could be had for the right price.

Young pitching has clearly been the focus of Atlanta’s acquisition efforts thus far, and the club has built an impressive stable of arms. Most recently, high-upside hurler Sean Newcomb headlined the Simmons swap. And a number of other pitchers were already installed in the upper reaches of the farm last winter.

On the surface, then, it might be asked why the Braves would have any interest in dealing players such as Miller and Julio Teheran, both of whom are affordable, well-regarded, younger pitchers. (You could say the same of already-dealt lefty Alex Wood.) The answer, perhaps, is that the value of these kinds of pitchers is arguably highest right now, when the club is simply not ready to compete, making it an opportune time to cash them in for assets that will be of greater utility down the line. It’s also worth noting that, as with Simmons, both Miller and Teheran will enjoy fairly significant raises over the coming seasons.

Both San Francisco and Los Angeles, of course, are said to be hunting for significant rotation upgrades this winter. The division rivals have both had their share of injuries in the rotation and seek multiple new arms. For the opposite reasons that might motivate the Braves to deal a player like Miller, it’s certainly plausible to imagine both clubs having interest in the concept of sacrificing near-future value for a mid-prime major leaguer who is at least controllable for a few seasons at a reasonable rate of pay. That’s all the more true, of course, given that both the Giants and Dodgers are said to be weighing significant free agent pitching investments.

It’s obviously not worth speculating too much about what kind of return might entice the Braves, but there’s little question that both prospective trade partners have the assets needed if the motivation is there. And it’s worth remembering that the Atlanta front office has proven itself highly creative in structuring deals. Of course, it remains to be seen whether there’s a match to be made with these — or other — teams.

Coppolella: “We Are Not Trading Freddie Freeman”

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The Braves have come under quite a bit of fire, with many stating that the team is tanking in order to accelerate its rebuild in the wake of last week’s Andrelton Simmons trade. Freddie Freeman’s name has come up in frequent trade speculation over the past week, Braves GM John Coppolella adamantly denied to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the Braves will even entertain the notion of trading their first baseman.

“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman,” Coppolella said. “We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening.”

While Twitter skeptics will undoubtedly have their fun by responding to that quote saying Freeman will be traded by this coming weekend, that type of on-record, absolutist statement is rare for a top-ranking baseball ops exec to make. (For instance, there’s a misconception that A’s president Billy Beane said last offseason that he wouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, but the comments pertaining to Donaldson were made by an anonymous team official.)

Of course, a team could still completely bowl the Braves over with a trade proposal for Freeman that would put Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart in a tough position, but the strong likelihood in light of a statement of this magnitude is that Freeman will indeed remain in Atlanta. The reason for hanging onto Freeman, Coppolella explains, is that the “tanking” crowd has a fundamental misunderstanding of the Braves’ intentions.

“If we truly were going to tank, we wouldn’t have had [Erick] Aybar come back in the [Simmons] trade,” said Coppolella. “If we were trying to tank, we wouldn’t have signed A.J. Pierzynski. If we were trying to tank, we would have traded [Cameron] Maybin at the deadline last year, and we had plenty of offers.”

Coppolella maintains that the Braves strongly want to win in the near future and urges critics not to judge the results of the trades immediately upon their completion but rather to wait a couple of years. The Atlanta GM acknowledges that his club won’t win 100-plus games in 2016 but voices a strong belief that the team can win more next season than it did in 2015.

While Coppolella is adamant that there’s a method to all of the Braves’ perceived madness and staunchly rejects the idea of trading Freeman, Nightengale does write that further trades from Atlanta could be on the horizon. The team still hopes to shed the contracts of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn — two players acquired to accelerate the alleviation of the financial burden that Chris Johnson’s contract had presented — and a strong offer for Maybin could pry him away from Atlanta as well.

Likewise, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported tonight that the Diamondbacks and Braves had discussions about Shelby Miller, but the D-Backs balked at the asking price, which Rosenthal says would’ve come from Arizona’s big league roster and could have been standout center fielder A.J. Pollock (links to Rosenthal on Twitter).

Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

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Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive.  Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season.  Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team.  Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense.  This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

"<strongA note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM figure from 2006.  Last year, Matt Swartz wrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season.  (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.)  Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos:  Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection.  639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection.  638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece.  616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection.  575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection.  411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket.  Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger.  If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension?  He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year.  Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment.  If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years.  A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option.  Corey Kluber’s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard.  The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017.  If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books.  So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years.  If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace.  Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come.  Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013.  It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Harang, Mesoraco, Grandal, Jenkins

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Veteran right-hander Aaron Harang may soon join his ninth major league franchise, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Harang’s career trajectory includes a dominant, stable peak with the Reds followed by a multi-season reinvention with a handful of clubs. With the Phillies in rebuild mode, Harang is a prime trade candidate. His 1.82 ERA, 6.67 K/9, and 1.97 BB/9 would represent an upgrade for any club. However, it’s worth noting his 4.12 xFIP. Harang has allowed just two home runs despite a high fly ball rate. Kepner offers more detail about Harang’s transformation from power pitcher to crafty veteran.

  • Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco has experienced a setback with his left hip impingement, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Mesoraco indicated that this week would be “pivotal” in deciding if the condition required surgery. He hasn’t been in the lineup the last two days, but he might be available to pinch hit tomorrow. To this point, club and player have attempted to avoid the surgical option.
  • Dodgers catcher Yasmany Grandal has a “mild concussion,” writes Anthony Witrado of MLB.com. Last night, Grandal was hit in the jaw by a Yangervis Solarte backswing, and he took a Matt Kemp foul ball off the mask. The club expects him to be ready to resume baseball activities in a few days. He may only require the minimum seven day stay on the disabled list.
  • Shelby Miller has done well to make the Braves look good for trading Jason Heyward. However, Tyrell Jenkins is doing his best to improve the return for the Braves. The 22-year-old righty has performed strongly in Double-A. Scouts and players credit him with excellent makeup. He tore his lat in 2012 and 2013 which has delayed his development as a prospect. He’s now fully healthy for the first time in years and reaching 96 mph on the gun. Although he has a shiny 2.94 ERA, his 5.71 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 could stand to improve.
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