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Top Remaining MLB Free Agents

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The Astros’ agreement with Jake Odorizzi on a three-year contract yesterday removed the top remaining free agent from the market. Even into the second week of spring training games, though, there are a few potentially valuable players available to teams.

  • Rick Porcello: MLBTR’s #46 free agent entering the offseason, Porcello made 12 starts for the Mets in 2020. His 5.64 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but Porcello logged a more respectable 4.45 SIERA. The 32-year-old isn’t a particularly exciting option at this stage of his career, but he’s been an extremely durable innings-eater, and we’re entering a year where reliable innings might be more valuable than ever coming off the shortened season.
  • Cole Hamels: Hamels is the other of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents still unsigned, having placed 47th on the list. 2020 was a lost season for Hamels, who was limited to a single start by shoulder issues. He was still plenty productive as recently as 2019, though.
  • Shane Greene: The rumor mill has been surprisingly quiet for the reliable Greene. His peripherals don’t support the 2.60 ERA he put up for the Braves last season, and it’s alarming that his strikeout rate fell by six points last year. Greene has been something of a bullpen workhorse in recent years, though, and he generally does a decent job avoiding hard contact.
  • Maikel Franco: The 28-year-old didn’t live up to expectations as the regular third baseman in Philadelphia. But he had a decent 2020 season after signing with the Royals, hitting .278/.321/.457 with eight home runs in 243 plate appearances. The Orioles are among the teams interested in Franco, whose market is now “heating up” after a slow winter.
  • Jedd Gyorko: Gyorko’s name hasn’t appeared on MLBTR’s pages since the Brewers declined his club option last October. That’s a bit surprising given Gyorko’s performance in limited playing time last season. The 32-year-old hit a very productive .248/.333/.504 and looks like a decent right-handed platoon option at the corner infield spots.

There are a handful more who could plausibly claim to be the top free agent remaining. Roberto Osuna, Yasiel Puig, Edwin Encarnación and Homer Bailey are among the others unsigned. How does the MLBTR readership feel about the remaining crop of free agents?

(poll link for app users)

 

Twins Interested In Colome, Wilson, Clippard

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3:56pm: Minnesota’s “expected” to sign Colome, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

1:32pm: In addition to Colome, the Twins have shown interest in re-signing Clippard and in signing lefty Justin Wilson, Hayes further reports. Minnesota has also at least gauged the price tags of Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria and Trevor Rosenthal, though the latter two could be seeking more than the Twins are comfortable committing to them, Hayes adds. It’s a wide slate of candidates, but the Twins could sign multiple relievers to bolster their relief corps.

9:07am: It’s been a busy couple of weeks for the Twins, but they’re still pursuing upgrades after finally agreeing to a new deal with designated hitter Nelson Cruz last night. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have interest in adding Alex Colome to their bullpen and are still looking at options to fill out their rotation. Twins fans hoping to see the club roll the dice on a Mike Foltynewicz rebound after watching his recent showcase may not get their wish, though, as SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson tweets that a signing is “more unlikely than likely.” Wolfson does suggest that the Twins have a current offer out to a reliever.

This isn’t the first time the Twins have been tied to Colome. However, in the month since that initial link, they’ve spent a combined $31.5MM on Cruz, Andrelton Simmons and J.A. Happ, so maintained interest in one of the better relievers remaining on the market wasn’t necessarily a given. The Twins currently project to open the season with a payroll in the $123MM range, but they’d have been north of $130MM last year prior to prorated salaries.

Owner Jim Pohlad recently voiced a vastly different mindset than many of his counterparts throughout the league, telling reporters he’s not looking at ways to “make up” for lost revenue from the 2020 season by slashing payroll (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

“We don’t really think of it like that,” Pohlad said in a Zoom call. “I’m not sure if we can ever make up for it. None of our objective includes trying to make up for what happened in 2020. It was significant. It was devastating. And you have to accept that as a loss going forward and not make it a goal to recover those losses either from fans or by affecting our payroll. That’s not the mind-set we have been in at all.”

The Twins’ recent activity reflects that outlook, and a deal with Colome would only further illustrate that stance. The 32-year-old spent the past two seasons as the closer for the division-rival White Sox. In 83 1/3 innings with the South Siders, he’s pitched to a 2.27 ERA and racked up 42 saves, although the rest of his numbers don’t look as dominant. Colome’s 20.9 percent strikeout rate is below-average in today’s game, and he’s registered a rather pedestrian 3.78 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

With the White Sox, Colome leaned aggressively on a two-pitch arsenal, throwing four-seamers and cutters exclusively — the latter nearly thrice as often as the former. In 2019, he got away with that mix despite giving up far too much hard contact, but he seemed to improve his utilization of that two-pitch mix in 2020.

Colome’s hard-hit rate fell sharply, from 41.2 percent to 32.8 percent, and only two of the balls put into play against him registered as “barreled balls,” per Statcast’s definition. Opponents’ average exit velocity against Colome plummeted from 91.3 percent in 2019 — one of the highest marks in baseball — to a lower-than-average 87.2 mph in 2020. And, despite registering one of the lowest strikeout percentages of his career last season, Colome actually posted career-high marks in swinging-strike rate and in opponents’ chase rate, which surely creates some optimism about his ability to rebound in the strikeout department.

For all the focus on the Twins’ rotation this winter, it’s the bullpen that’s a more dire area of need at the moment. The quartet of Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Happ gives the Twins four solid options atop the starting staff, but the bullpen has quietly been depleted. Minnesota lost Trevor May to the Mets and Matt Wisler (who was non-tendered) to the Giants. Veterans Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, meanwhile, are both free agents and remain unsigned. Taylor Rogers is still the favorite for saves in Minnesota for now, although Colome would give manager Rocco Baldelli another ninth-inning option with some experience. The fact that Baldelli and Colome know each other well from their time together with the Rays can’t hurt the Twins’ chances at a deal.

Braves Win Arbitration Hearing Against Shane Greene

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The Braves have won their arbitration hearing against right-handed reliever Shane Greene, the Associated Press reports. He’ll now earn the $6.25MM salary figure submitted by the Braves rather than the $6.75MM salary for which he filed.

Acquired in a deadline deal that sent prospects Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte to the Tigers, Greene was unable to replicate the dominance he’d shown in Detroit in his new setting. The 1.18 ERA he posted in 38 innings as a Tiger last year never appeared close to sustainable, as it was largely predicated on a .178 average on balls in play and a sky-high 85.2 percent strand rate, but the extent to which Greene regressed in Atlanta was nevertheless a bit surprising.

That’s not to say that Greene wasn’t a useful bullpen piece, but he punched out 28.5 percent of the hitters he faced with Detroit, only to see that number plummet to 20.8 percent with the Braves. Greene still notched a respectable 4.01 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 24 2/3 innings with the Braves, adding in another run allowed in 2 2/3 postseason frames in the NLDS.

This will be the final trip through the arbitration process for Greene, who is set to become a free agent at season’s end. The $500K gap over which the two sides argued seems trivial to most fans but is viewed in a vastly different light by teams and agencies. Hearings such as this one serve as a reminder that the actual immediate cost savings are typically trivial; rather, it’s in teams’ best interest to try to fight for every last dollar rather than make concessions, as future arbitration cases for similar players are based upon the cases of today. Conversely, if an agency is able to even push a client’s salary forward by a couple hundred thousand dollars, that becomes a data point for future comparables. MLBTR spoke to several league execs about the intricacies of arbitration a few years back, and the points discussed still ring true in 2020.

Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Braves To Install Mark Melancon As Closer

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The Braves will install veteran righty Mark Melancon as their closer, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He finished out tonight’s game, though it did not come in a save situation.

Melancon was one of three veteran relievers acquired by the Atlanta organization at the trade deadline. At the time, it did not seem terribly likely he’d receive a shot at ninth-inning work. Shane Greene took the inside track to the gig, with fellow newcomer Chris Martin and incumbent Luke Jackson also potentially in the mix.

Things have changed rather quickly. Greene and Martin have been shaky. The Braves don’t want to turn things back over to Jackson. And Melancon has been steady. It’s only a handful of outings, but the Atlanta org is obviously looking for a steadying presence. Perhaps it shouldn’t be seen as a surprise that the experienced late-inning hand has already grasped the reins.

Melancon hasn’t functioned as a steady closer since early in the 2017 season, but he has racked up 183 career saves. Though he has been more steady than dominant of late, carrying a 3.29 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 since the start of the 2018 season, the 34-year-old surely won’t be cowed by the prospect of handling the high-leverage spots.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves’ late-inning relief situation shakes out down the stretch. Snitker did not commit to permanently utilizing Melancon in the closer’s role, though he did indicate that the veteran will be trusted with the job for some time to come. The club is obviously willing to switch things up on the fly, but will presumably hope to settle into some kind of established approach before the postseason arrives.

Report: Tigers Were Offered Baez, Bregman In 2017 Offers For Michael Fulmer

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Between a down year in 2018 and then Tommy John surgery in March 2019, Michael Fulmer has fallen off the radar for many fans outside of the Motor City.  Yet it wasn’t long ago that Fulmer was one the most sought-after trade chips in baseball, hotly pursued by multiple teams in the aftermath of a Rookie Of The Year season in 2016, and a strong sophomore year that saw him post a 3.83 ERA, 2.85 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9 over 164 2/3 innings in 2017, though Fulmer’s year was cut short by elbow surgery.

It was during that 2017 season that the Tigers finally went into full rebuild mode, trading Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and others before the trading period finally halted at the end of August.  Fulmer received plenty of attention from trade suitors, though he wasn’t as obvious of a moveable asset given that he still had so many years of team control remaining.

Nonetheless, the Tigers received some sizeable offers for his services, and according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, these offers included two blockbusters for future All-Stars.  The Tigers reportedly declined a three-player package from the Cubs that would have seen Javier Baez head to Detroit in exchange for Fulmer, while the Astros were willing to give up Alex Bregman for both Fulmer and left-hander Justin Wilson.

It makes for an eye-popping case of hindsight for the Tigers and their fans, considering how the three principal figures of those offers have since performed.  Baez and Bregman are simply two of the game’s best players, each collecting All-Star appearances in both 2018 and 2019, while Baez finished second in NL MVP voting last season while Bregman racked up a fifth-place finish in the 2018 AL MVP race and also played a big role in the Astros’ 2017 World Series title.

Fulmer, by contrast, hasn’t matched his early potential due to injuries and perhaps simply some statistical regression.  Whether he can regain his former front-of-the-rotation status is a question that can’t be answered until at least a few months into the 2020 season (or perhaps until 2021, if Fulmer is one of many pitchers who under-performs in their first several starts back from TJ surgery).

There were some rumors about a Cubs/Tigers trade involving Fulmer back in 2017, prior to Chicago’s acquisition of Jose Quintana from the White Sox, though Detroit reportedly wanted both Baez and Ian Happ as part of a Fulmer trade package.  Bregman and Fulmer were never linked in any trade talks, and one wonders if the Astros only floated the idea fairly early in the year, since Bregman was installed as the team’s everyday third baseman from Opening Day onward.  Needless to say, Bregman was no longer on the table by the time Houston and Detroit collaborated on their actual 2017 blockbuster, the championship-deciding deal that sent Verlander to the Astros on August 31.

In fairness to the Tigers, every front office has countless examples of instances where they missed out on a trade or a signing that would have been a steal.  Likewise, from the Cubs’ and Astros’ perspective, every team can cite numerous cases where they lucked out in not making a transaction.  But the Fulmer situation looms large, Fenech notes, given how Detroit has been unable to maximize the return on several of their top trade assets during their rebuild.

Several scouts from around the league weren’t very impressed by the four total prospects Detroit received from the Cubs and Braves in trade deadline swaps of Nicolas Castellanos and Shane Greene.  The Tigers also weren’t able to trade Matt Boyd, perhaps their most valuable trade chip, at all.  While “multiple executives indicated Boyd’s trade value will never be as high as it was at 3:59 p.m. on Wednesday” prior to the trade deadline, it seems that Detroit’s asking price on Boyd was simply too exorbitant.  One National League exec told Fenech that the Tigers’ demands were “borderline comical,” and an AL executive describing Detroit’s front office as “impossible to deal with.”

The Tigers also asked for a lot in their attempts to trade Greene.  For instance, Detroit asked the Nationals for top infield prospect Carter Kieboom, and Fenech also reports that the Nationals turned down an offer for Luis Garcia, another prized young infielder.

Braves Acquire Shane Greene

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The Braves have acquired right-handed closer Shane Greene from the Tigers for left-hander Joey Wentz and outfielder Travis Demeritte, per an announcement from Atlanta.

Greene has posted excellent results this year, but as a reliever with waning control on a rebuilding team, he has looked like an obvious trade candidate throughout the campaign. The 30-year-old’s on a $4MM salary this season and comes with arbitration eligibility for another winter.

Through 38 innings in 2019, Greene has pitched to a measly 1.18 ERA, but that surely won’t hold. His 3.70 FIP, 3.80 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA are all a good distance away, while there’s also a sizable gap between the weighted on-base average Greene has allowed (.221) and his xwOBA (.282). But that’s not to say Greene can’t be a significant asset going forward. He still owns an excellent 10.18 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9, an easily above-average 53.8 percent groundball rate and a solid 14.3 percent infield fly rate.

Greene, who has 22 saves on 25 attempts this season, may take over as the Braves’ closer immediately. Luke Jackson has been serving in the role, though he has blown seven saves on 24 tries. Plus, while Jackson has done good work for most of the year, he has endured an awful stretch in which he has yielded seven earned runs in six appearances dating back to July 12. With Jackson struggling and the NL East-leading Braves lacking an abundance of dependable relievers aside from him, they’ve now reeled in Greene, former Rangers righty Chris Martin and ex-Giants righty Mark Melancon since Tuesday evening.

Wentz, 21, joined the Braves as a sixth-round pick in 2016. He entered the season as the Braves’ 11th-ranked prospect, according to FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen, who noted at the time injuries and inconsistency have held Wentz back. He has gotten his first taste of Double-A action this season and put up a 4.72 ERA/4.36 FIP with 8.74 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9 over 103 innings.

The 24-year-old Demeritte did not rank among FanGraphs’ top Braves prospects entering the season, but they noted then he possesses “easy plus power and is passable at multiple positions defensively.” Demeritte has since slashed an outstanding .286/.357/.558 with 20 home runs in 399 plate appearances in his Triple-A debut. A first-round pick (No. 30) of the Rangers in 2013, Demeritte became a Brave via trade in 2016. He’s now on the move again.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported a trade was close. Buster Olney of ESPN reported the Braves had acquired Greene. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted Wentz’s involvement. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Braves, Nats Pursuing Shane Greene

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12:36pm: The Tigers are still insisting the Nats part with top prospect Carter Kieboom to move Greene, according to Morosi (Twitter link). It’s frankly difficult to imagine that asking price being met with the highly regarded Kieboom dominating Triple-A pitching at 21 years of age. That’s all the more true given that Kieboom could fit on the Nats’ 2020 roster (if not the late-2019 roster) in a variety of ways.

12:07pm: The Braves and Nationals are not just engaged in a key series at the moment. It seems they’re also each pushing for the same relief arms — in particular, Tigers righty Shane Greene.

The Atlanta and Washington organizations are “leaders in the clubhouse” to secure the services of Greene, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Talks between the Braves and Tigers have “intensified” recently, with Greene “the focus,” per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

Greene, 30, is earning a reasonable $4MM this year for the Tigers. That’s nothing for his 38 innings of 1.18 ERA ball and 22 saves, though rival organizations still need to assess whether that’s what they can expect moving forward from Greene, who’ll be eligible for arbitration a final time next year.

Clearly, nobody thinks he’ll be able to sustain that sort of pitching output. But there’s good reason to think that Greene is and will remain a quality late-inning piece. He’s carrying 10.2 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with a 53.8% groundball rate, with an 11.1% swinging-strike rate that’s substantially better than his prior two seasons.

Pitching Rumors: Reds, Bauer, Yanks, Phils, MadBum, Greene, Fish, Nats

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The Reds just agreed to acquire right-hander Trevor Bauer from the Indians on Tuesday evening. Could the Reds now turn around and flip Bauer by Wednesday’s trade deadline? Not likely, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, two of Bauer’s new Cincinnati rotation mates – Alex Wood and the previously reported Tanner Roark – have drawn interest from the Phillies. Philly has “taken a very close look at” Wood, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Wood finally just made his season debut Sunday after months of back troubles, but the non-contending Reds could now attempt to get what they can for the pending free agent. The 28-year-old Wood, who’s on a $9.65MM salary, posted quality production with the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18.

A smorgasbord of other pitcher-related rumors…

  • Despite their recent run of excellence, the Giants are fielding calls and “engaging in negotiations” for starter Madison Bumgarner and reliever Will Smith, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Astros are reportedly among the teams chasing Bumgarner, but Smith is the more likely of the two to find himself in a new uniform by Wednesday, Schulman suggests. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s likely Smith would bring back a significant return. He’s affordable ($4.225MM salary) and enjoying a marvelous season as the Giants’ closer.
  • Back to Bauer, who was reportedly one of the Yankees’ preferred targets in their search for starting help. That may have been overblown, though, as the Yankees and Indians didn’t engage in “serious talks” over Bauer, Andy Martino of SNY relays.
  • The asking price for Tigers closer Shane Greene is “far more reasonable” than the requests for other high-end relievers around the league, Feinsand tweets. Feinsand points to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Kirby Yates as relievers who would be much harder to acquire, which isn’t surprising.
  • Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
  • The Giants and Nationals “have discussed” southpaw Drew Pomeranz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Pomeranz, whom the Giants recently demoted to their bullpen amid a rough season, has also been drawing interest from elsewhere in recent days.
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