Shane Bieber

TODAY: Bieber is tentatively slated to throw a bullpen session tomorrow or Saturday, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters.

AUGUST 8: Indians ace Shane Bieber was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a shoulder strain back on June 14, then moved to the 60-day IL two weeks ago.  That sets August 15 as the earliest Bieber can make his return to Cleveland’s rotation, yet it doesn’t look at the moment like the right-hander will be ready until well beyond that date.

Bieber was recently shut down from throwing altogether, though that shutdown only lasted a few days, as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner was making tosses from 90 feet on Friday.

“I’m not super enthused about the fact that it’s taken a little bit longer than expected, but it is what it is and we gotta think safety and long-term,” Bieber told The Akron Beacon Journal’s Ryan Lewis and other reporters.  “So it came down to getting a little bit of rest and I’m sure you can tell that I’m excited and want to come back as soon as possible….I don’t know too much on a timeline or whatever, but I’m just trying to progress as smoothly and quickly as possible and get back as soon as possible.  Whether it’s a couple innings this season, who knows?”

Given that we’re now into the second week of August, Lewis notes that it might not be either possible or feasible for Bieber to pitch again this season.  Between pitching off a mound, bullpen sessions, and rehab outings, Bieber isn’t likely to be ready until the start of September at the earliest.

Cleveland currently has a 53-55 record and is well behind in both the AL Central and wild card races, so unless the Tribe considerably closes either gap in the near future, the Indians could opt to shut Bieber down and look ahead to the 2022 season.  On the other hand, if Bieber is indeed healthy and ready to pitch by (for instance) mid-September, there also might not be any harm in him getting “a couple innings” under his belt just so he can fully put his shoulder injury behind him, rather than wait until Spring Training in February.

The Tribe were racked by pitching injuries this season, with Bieber’s shoulder issue robbing him of a chance to fully follow up on his outstanding 2020 campaign.  The right-hander wasn’t quite at his all-world Cy Young form in 2021, but he still delivered a 3.28 ERA and a 33.9% strikeout rate that ranked among the league’s best.  With Bieber only entering arbitration eligibility for the first time this winter, he is still a major building block for a Cleveland team that will look to return to contention as they begin the Guardians era next year.

The Indians have made extension offers to ace Shane Bieber during each of the past two Spring Trainings, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Terms of the respective offers are unknown. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Representation, is under team control via arbitration through 2024.

It’s wholly unsurprising Cleveland would like to keep Bieber long-term. The 25-year-old has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top pitchers in recent seasons. After impressing with 214 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA/3.36 SIERA ball in 2019, Bieber has taken his game to another level over the last two years. He was a unanimous selection as the AL Cy Young award winner in 2020 after dominating hitters to the tune of a 1.63 ERA with an MLB-best 122 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings.

Bieber hasn’t continued to pitch at that superhuman level this year, but he’s still been one of the game’s best arms. Over his first eight starts, the right-hander has worked to a 2.95 ERA, and he again leads MLB in strikeouts (85). Bieber has thrown a league-leading 132 1/3 frames over the past two seasons. In that time, he also ranks among the league’s top three pitchers (minimum 50 combined innings) in strikeout rate (39.3%), strikeout minus walk rate (31.9 percentage points), SIERA (2.58) and swinging strike rate (17.4%).

Given that continued level of dominance, it stands to reason the Cleveland front office will reengage with Bieber’s camp next winter. In March, Bieber expressed openness to a potential long-term deal but suggested he wasn’t much interested in discussing an extension during the regular season. He’s presently slated for his first of three trips through arbitration next offseason.

There haven’t been many extensions for starting pitchers with three-plus years of service time (which Bieber is set to reach before next offseason) in recent years. Phillies ace Aaron Nola and Cardinals righty Carlos Martínez are the only starters in that service class to sign long-term extensions over the past half-decade. Nola’s 2019 deal guaranteed the righty $45MM over four seasons with a fifth-year club option. Martínez signed a loftier five-year, $51MM guarantee but surrendered an extra potential free agent season via a second club option. Bieber has been more dominant during the past two seasons than either Nola or Martínez were at the time of their respective deals. If he finishes this season just as strong, he could justifiably set an asking price a fair bit loftier than those figures.

The Indians, of course, have taken plenty of criticism for their lack of spending. Cleveland’s $49.6MM payroll this season is the league’s second-lowest, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, the Indians have rather aggressively pursued early-career extensions for some of their star players in recent years. They also don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2022 and beyond, giving them plenty of long-term flexibility.

The Indians at least broached the subjection of a contract extension with AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber this offseason, though Bieber told reporters (including The Athletic’s Zack Meisel and Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga) that “I haven’t really gotten into very many talks, at least in-depth.  With Opening Day coming up right here, right in front of us, I think that’ll be what it is until maybe next offseason.”

There isn’t any immediate rush for the Tribe to lock up the ace right-hander, as Bieber won’t reach arbitration eligibility until next offseason, and he is under team control through the 2024 season.  Since managing payroll is such an important part of Cleveland’s team-building strategy (particularly this winter), it certainly doesn’t hurt to have one of the sport’s best pitchers on a bargain price for at least the next couple of years, though Bieber’s price tag will rise considerably through the arbitration process if he keeps pitching as he did in the 2020 season.

The 25-year-old was a unanimous choice as the American League’s top hurler after a season that saw Bieber dominate in both the traditional statistics (a league-best 1.63 ERA, eight wins, and 122 strikeouts, to win the Triple Crown of pitching) and in the advanced metrics — a 2.52 SIERA, 44.1% strikeout rate, 34% strikeout-to-walk rate, and elite rates in most Statcast categories.  While Bieber recorded this dream year over only 77 1/3 innings in 2020, he first established himself as a breakout star with a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting in 2019.

The Indians have achieved great success in signing star players to long-term extensions early in their careers, though it’s possible they have already missed their window in locking up Bieber to a truly team-friendly deal.  One side effect of the Tribe’s winter cost-cutting, however, is that they don’t have a single dollar officially committed to payroll beyond the 2021 season, so there is plenty of space to afford a hefty multi-year salary for Bieber.

As a fourth-round pick who signed for a modest $420K bonus, Bieber has yet to score any truly big paydays in his pro career, but it is perhaps worth mentioning that Cleveland renewed his contract for $679.7K in 2021 after the two sides didn’t reach common ground on the salary.  Bieber explained that he decided on a renewal after discussing things with his representatives, saying the decision “just seemed what was best for me in my career going forward.”  In terms of relations with the Indians front office, Bieber said there was “zero bad blood, animosity, whatever you want to call it,” and he is looking forward to the season.

Another interesting wrinkle lies in who will be discussing this extension on Bieber’s behalf, as the righty is one of the relatively few baseball clients of Rosenhaus Sports Representation.  Run by football super-agent Drew Rosenhaus, the firm only expanded into representing baseball players in 2017, and Bieber represents the agency’s first opportunity to negotiate a major baseball contract.