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Seiya Suzuki

Padres Notes: Suzuki, Closer Situation, Abrams

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In a Monday mailbag, Dennis Lin of The Athletic poured cold water on pre-lockout reports that the Padres had targeted Nick Castellanos to fill an outfield/DH vacancy, but he did suggest the club might enter the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki when free agency resumes. While fitting Suzuki into their payroll might require finding a taker for at least a portion of the salary due to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers on the trade market, principal owner Peter Seidler has indicated the club’s budget has at least a bit of room for growth, though this could depend on luxury tax provisions in the new CBA (the Padres slightly exceeded the threshold last season, and the previous deal included escalating penalties for repeat offenders). The longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp outfielder, who might offer the highest bang-for-the-buck potential among remaining free agent outfielders, won’t command nearly the salary sought by Castellanos or Kris Bryant (MLBTR projects Suzuki will sign for five years and $55MM). Including projections for arbitration-eligible players, the Padres are presently on the hook for just shy of $199MM in 2022 salary (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource).

Though the Giants and Mariners appear to be the industry favorites to sign Suzuki, Padres fans have learned never to put anything past GM and president of baseball operations A. J. Preller, particularly given Seidler’s repeated willingness to green-light moves that commit the club to significant years and dollars. As Lin notes, the Padres had only three above-average lineup regulars (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth) in 2021. Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.

A few other Padres notes as we wait out the (rather bleak) CBA negotiations:

  • In the same mailbag, Lin discussed the Padres’ closer situation, which remains unsettled following the departure of 2021 NL saves leader Mark Melancon to the Diamondbacks. Drew Pomeranz is the obvious choice for a ninth-inning role, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon that ended his 2021 season in August. Lin notes that both Emilio Pagan and the recently signed Robert Suarez have experience in the role, but Pagan had a less-than-stellar 2021 (4.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP) and all of Suarez’s 68 career saves came in Japan, where he’s played since 2016. Should the Padres no longer view him as a starter, Dinelson Lamet could also be an option, though new manager Bob Melvin may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. In any event, Lin expects the Padres to address lineup questions before turning to the bullpen. They could turn to one or several of low-cost options with histories of big-league success, a list that includes Brad Hand, Chris Martin, Archie Bradley, Adam Ottavino, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit, Mychal Givens, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Strop, Richard Rodriguez, and Tyler Clippard.
  • Consensus top-10 prospect CJ Abrams, who missed the second half of the 2021 season after suffering a broken tibia and torn MCL in late-June infield collision and had recently dealt with shoulder issues, has been cleared to resume baseball activities, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Prior to the injury, the 21-year-old shortstop compiled a .296/.363/.420 batting line in a 42-game sample at Double-A San Antonio. As he’s not yet on the Padres’ 40-man roster, Abrams is not affected by the lockout and could play in mini-camp games in short order. Though he’s certain to begin 2022 in the minors, Abrams is a potential candidate for a late-season call-up should his bat continue to show life in the upper minors, particularly if Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder issues persist or manager Bob Melvin revisits plans to deploy Tatis in the outfield.

Latest On Mets’ Post-Lockout Plans

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The Mets have already had one of the most active offseasons of any team, signing Max Scherzer to a record-setting contract and inking a trio of bats — Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar — to multi-year deals. The combined outlay on that quartet of additions was $254.5MM, pushing the team’s payroll to a projected $263MM (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Mets are likely to target more rotation help — listing Yusei Kikuchi as one candidate — but have likely completed most of the heavy lifting on the position-player side of the roster. Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo tweets today that pitching is indeed expected to be the team’s priority, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the team isn’t completely closed off to bringing in another impact hitter. A payroll approaching $300MM isn’t out of the question in Queens, Heyman notes.

A pitching addition would be far more straightforward than signing another bat. The quartet of Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker is immensely talented but also laden with injury risk. Fifth starter candidates David Peterson and Tylor Megill are solid enough options, but as currently constructed, the Mets would be one injury away from needing to lean on both (and two away from having to tap into a shaky group of Triple-A options).

Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw stand out as two of the most prominent starters who have yet to sign, though Martino noted last week when linking the Mets to Kikuchi that they did not have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. There are, of course, myriad trade scenarios to consider as well. The A’s (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) and Reds (Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo) have starters who could conceivably change hands. The Padres have a wealth of young arms if the Mets are simply looking to add some depth, as they did last year when acquiring the now-injured Joey Lucchesi from San Diego.

On the pitching side of the coin, things are far muddier for the Mets — due in no small part to that aforementioned pre-lockout spending spree. The advent of a universal designated hitter might help to alleviate any logjams, but Mets already have crowded outfield and infield pictures alike. Marte, Canha Brandon Nimmo figure to get the bulk of the work in the outfield, while the infield mix will feature Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, Francisco Lindor, Escobar and Jeff McNeil. Beyond that group of nine, the Mets have both J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith as capable corner options in the infield/outfield mix.

There’s already talk that the Amazins will be open to moving McNeil and/or Smith once the lockout lifts, which would make some sense given the lack of regular at-bats available. McNeil, Smith and Davis (more on him here) seem to be the likeliest change-of-scenery candidates, and moving multiple names from that group could pave the way for another addition.

With such a crowded roster already in place, there isn’t necessarily one glaring position the Mets need to feel compelled to shop. If the team is comfortable with Cano and Luis Guillorme logging the bulk of the work at second base, for instance, that’d free up the ability to trade McNeil and perhaps add an impact bat who could primarily serve as a DH (e.g. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz). The Mets could also play Escobar at second base in that scenario and pursue help at the hot corner. Frankly, with so many players who have experience at multiple positions, Mets fans could dream on innumerable speculative scenarios. Martino has even suggested that despite having signed multiple outfielders, a Mets pursuit of Seiya Suzuki cannot be expressly ruled out.

Today’s reports don’t necessarily indicate anything that contradicts prior reporting but rather serve to reinforce the idea that the Mets aren’t likely to rest on their laurels after an active November/December. Pitching still seems likeliest to be the focus of their efforts, but the potential trades of some combination of McNeil, Smith and Davis could leave the team with the flexibility to add a bat of note — particularly if one of the prominent sluggers on the market is struggling to find a deal to his liking. Owner Steve Cohen certainly has the financial chops to swoop in and opportunistically sign such a free agent to a pillow deal, at the very least.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

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TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.

Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.

Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.

Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.

Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).

A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.

MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.

Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.

Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.

As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.

Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?

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Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.

During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.

One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.

Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.

Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.

For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?

(poll link for app users)

 

Seiya Suzuki Still Planning To Wait Out Lockout To Sign With MLB Club

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As it has for all major league free agents, the lockout has frozen the signing process for Seiya Suzuki. The Japanese star was posted by his NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp, in late November. That opened a 30-day window for Suzuki to come to an agreement with a big league team, but MLB instituted a lockout just ten days into the posting process.

MLB and NPB agreed to freeze Suzuki’s posting window for the duration of the lockout. Now six weeks into the work stoppage with essentially no progress on key issues, questions had begun to emerge about Suzuki’s future. NPB preseason camps open February 1, and there’d been some thought that he may choose to return to the Carp if MLB and the Players Association don’t make rapid progress over the coming weeks.

Suzuki’s apparently not considering that course of action, however. In an interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic, Suzuki suggested he’s content to wait out an extended work stoppage. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” the outfielder told Baggarly via an interpreter. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”

With ten days of the posting process already elapsed, Suzuki and his representatives at Wasserman will have 20 days after the finalization of a new collective bargaining agreement to hammer out a deal with a big league club. There’ll be no shortage of interest. Baggarly writes that between ten and twelve teams had reached out to Suzuki prior to the lockout. The Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees have all been linked to the right-handed hitter in past reports. Baggarly adds the Rays, Padres and Dodgers as teams expected to be in the mix.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecast Suzuki for a $55MM guarantee over five seasons. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke expressed varying opinions on his upside, but broad consensus was that he could be a well-rounded everyday right fielder in the big leagues. He’s coming off a monster showing at Japan’s top level, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. That huge power production didn’t come with much swing-and-miss. He fanned in only 16.5% of his trips to the dish while walking at a robust 16.3% clip. (R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports provides some batted ball and plate discipline metrics from Suzuki’s last season in NPB).

Suzuki didn’t tip his hand regarding geographical or league preferences for his next destination. Yet he does offer some insight into his motivation for playing in the majors and on which players he models his game. Baggarly’s piece, which also includes tidbits from a few of Suzuki’s former teammates, is worth checking out in full.

Latest On Giants, Seiya Suzuki

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The Giants’ interest in outfielder Seiya Suzuki was first noted back in November, and San Francisco has continued to be linked to the longtime Hiroshima Carp slugger.  As reported by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, the Giants were one of the teams who conducted video interviews with Suzuki (through Zoom) prior to the start of the lockout.

The 27-year-old Suzuki has a long list of known suitors, as the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Mariners have all reportedly shown interest in his services.  Texas has been one of the offseason’s biggest spenders and the Blue Jays (with Kevin Gausman) and Mariners (with Robbie Ray) have also made some aggressive signings.  New York and Boston have stayed relatively quiet, perhaps in anticipation of some bigger spending after the lockout once the details of the new CBA are finalized.

That same tactic could be the Giants’ modus operandi for figuring out how to navigate the post-lockout world.  It’s not as if San Francisco hasn’t been making moves this winter — the club retained Brandon Belt via the qualifying offer, re-signed both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, and further augmented the rotation by signing Alex Cobb.  None of these signings broke the bank, however, and the Giants have only around $126MM committed to their 2022 payroll to date.

This doesn’t mean that the Giants will necessarily use their available payroll space on any huge signings, given the team’s reported reluctance to sign players to nine-figure deals.  However, there is still plenty of talent available for well less than a $100MM deal, and Suzuki stands out as one of the more intriguing options available for reasons beyond just cost.  MLBTR projected Suzuki for a five-year, $55MM pact, though his market is rather more difficult to project than most free agents, given his lack of MLB experience and now the unusual circumstances over his posting situation.

Like so much else in the baseball world, Suzuki’s free agency has been put on hold by the lockout.  The Carp officially posted Suzuki on November 22, so he got roughly ten days into the 30-day posting period before the lockout began.  While it’s safe to assume that the Giants and other teams laid some initial groundwork in their online meetings, the 20 days remaining doesn’t leave much margin for error for Suzuki and his reps to find an acceptable contract.

Given the uncertainty surrounding labor talks between the owners and players, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see Suzuki opt to return to Nippon Professional Baseball for another season if the lockout keeps dragging on.  As noted by The New York Times’ Brad Lefton, February 1 could serve as something of a deadline for Suzuki, since Japanese teams begin their Spring Training on that date.  It is extremely rare for Japanese players to miss any of their training camps for reasons other than injury, so Suzuki could need to decide between NPB or MLB by late January.

From an on-field perspective, there is plenty of logic in a Suzuki/Giants pairing.  He could immediately step into regular duty as an everyday right fielder, providing San Francisco’s lineup (and the outfield mix in particular) with a needed right-handed bat.  Suzuki has played only as an outfielder for the last seven seasons but he has some history as a third baseman, first baseman, and shortstop, so there’s even a small chance the Giants could experiment with using him around the diamond, as they have so many other versatile players on the roster.  Suzuki only turned 27 last August, so he should have plenty of prime years left to help a Giants team that now has designs on winning a World Series as early as next season.

The Giants Need A Right-Handed Bat

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While nothing about baseball’s future can be set in stone, the scuttlebutt coming out of San Francisco suggests pretty strongly that Kris Bryant will not be returning in black and orange. Concerns about his defensive efficiency and contract demands have the Giants looking elsewhere. If the price for Bryant drops, however, he still very much fits a need. Bryant and the retired Buster Posey brought the right-handed thump to balance a left-leaning lineup in 2021. Evan Longoria contributed as well, but the veteran third baseman is far from a sure thing, health-wise.

The hallmark of this Giants’ regime is discipline, so despite their need for a right-handed bat, they aren’t likely to overpay to bring Bryant back, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. The Giants appear most comfortable looking for match-up-based value adds, a department where they have succeeded recently with players like Darin Ruf, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Wilmer Flores.

There is one higher-profile free agent they could pursue. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly wrote back in mid-December that the Giants are interested in Japanese import Seiya Suzuki, who should command a contract in a range wherein the Giants feel comfortable. There are many suitors chasing Suzuki, however.

Donovan Solano has been another one of those part-time players for the Giants, but Pavlovic notes that he’s probably “gone for good.” Solano had a productive three seasons with the Giants, even winning a silver slugger award in 2020.

His departure should make room to give Thairo Estrada a real opportunity. After slashing .273/.333/.479 across 132 plate appearances in 2021, there’s certainly reason to think that the 25-year-old Estrada can be a younger, cheaper version of the 34-year-old Solano.

Depth is key in the modern landscape, however. Since Estrada is out of options, the Giants need to be relatively certain about whether or not he can be the guy they need to fill out their bench. The Giants need a right-handed complement to Tommy La Stella at second and someone who can spell Evan Longoria at third. If Estrada is that guy, then the Giants can focus their post-lockout roster-building on adding potential rotation arms to fill out their depth on that end.

Rangers Have Interest In Seiya Suzuki

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Seiya Suzuki’s posting window has been paused with the MLB lockout ongoing, but whenever the current transaction freeze is lifted, the star Hiroshima Carp outfielder will have just shy of three weeks to field interest from Major League teams. Reports have already indicated that a trio of AL East clubs — Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays — are among the most interested parties, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently wrote that the Rangers like Suzuki as well.

As Brad Lefton of the New York Times wrote a couple weeks back, agent Joel Wolfe told reporters in Japan in late November that at least eight teams had expressed serious interest and that there had already been some virtual meetings conducted. In-person meetings with interested parties figure follow, post-lockout.

The extent of Texas’ interest in the 27-year-old slugger isn’t clear, though he’s an obvious on-paper fit. Adolis Garcia and offseason signee Kole Calhoun figure to be locked into a pair of outfield spots, but there’s a corner-outfield spot still largely up for grabs. At present, any of Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Leody Taveras or Eli White could vie for time there, but Suzuki would be a higher-profile offensive upgrade following what has already been a frenzied offseason of additions from president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young.

For those unfamiliar, Suzuki has been one of Japan’s most-productive hitters for several years now and is considered among the top talents in the country. Suzuki posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.

Suzuki is younger than recent NPB signees such as Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo were when they made the transition to North American ball, and he’s considerably more highly regarded than both. While multiple team evaluators told MLBTR prior to his posting that Suzuki won’t be a regular option in center, he’s still seen as an above-average option in right field — an opinion that was only reinforced last week when Suzuki won his fifth NPB Gold Glove Award for his defense in right. Even if he doesn’t stack up as an elite outfielder, he ought to more than hold his own as better-than-average option in either left or right for interested teams.

The question for the Rangers at this point is just how much more the team has left in the tank. The half-billion dollars invested in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien grabbed the majority of headlines, but the Rangers also spent another $61.2MM combined on Jon Gray and the aforementioned Kole Calhoun. That said, even with all those splashes, the Rangers’ projected 2022 payroll is currently about $127MM — well shy of 2017’s record $165MM Opening Day payroll. Another outfielder would certainly be prudent, but Texas also still has multiple holes in the rotation and the bullpen.

Grant suggests that the to-date flurry of activity makes it unlikely the Rangers will spend to the levels necessary to add someone such as Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, either of whom would figure to command considerably heavier annual salaries than Suzuki (even if Suzuki may receive a larger number of years, based on his age). Still, if the plan is to focus more resources on pitching at this point, there’s no shortage of lower-cost corner options (e.g. Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario) — and the team, of course, could just stay in-house for outfield needs.

Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Aggressive Suitors For Seiya Suzuki

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On November 22, Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, freeing him up to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams for 30 days. However, it was reported that the recent implementation of a lockout that has led to a transaction freeze has also frozen Suzuki’s 30-day clock. That means that, at the conclusion of the lockout, he will still have around 20 days to work out a deal with an MLB team. At that point, there’s a decent chance of Suzuki winding up in the AL East, according to a report from Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal. “One major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki,” McAdam writes.

The fact that Suzuki is garnering interest is not surprising, given his talents. Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB lineup, while also providing solid right field defence. Over nine seasons in the NPB, he has hit .315/.414/.570, with that production only growing over time.

The Red Sox make for a fairly logical landing spot, especially when considering the recent trade of Hunter Renfroe. Suzuki could potentially fill the right field vacancy left by Renfroe, with Verdugo manning left field and center field covered by some combination of Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez or Jackie Bradley Jr., who was part of the return in the Renfroe deal. That trade seemed to be about adding defence by subtracting offence, but the addition of Suzuki could be a way of replacing that lost offence. Kyle Schwarber, who was acquired by the Red Sox last year and would be a logical Renfroe replacement for 2022, is reportedly looking for a three-year, $60MM deal, meaning Suzuki could potentially be about half as costly on an annual basis, if MLBTR’s prediction is correct.

The fit with the Yankees is a bit less smooth, given that they have a number of outfield options already on hand. On paper, the outfield consists of Joey Gallo in left, Aaron Hicks in center and Aaron Judge in right, with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton available for the occasional appearance on the grass and prospect Estevan Florial on hand as depth. However, they may be reluctant to rely on Hicks as an everyday option, given that he’s now 32 years old and has dealt with injury setbacks in recent years, including only playing 32 games in 2021. Although he did play 54 of the team’s 60 games in the shortened 2020 season, his last significant action over a full season was 137 games in 2018. Judge, Gallo and Suzuki all have seen limited action in center field, making it at least possible for the club to have all three across the outfield at times. However, none of them are really considered an everyday option at the position, making it something of an awkward arrangement over a full season.

Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays also seem to have their outfield accounted for on paper, with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk all pencilled in. However, it was recently reported that the Jays had discussions with the Brewers about a trade centered around Grichuk and Bradley Jr., before the latter was traded to the Red Sox last week. It would appear the club is open to moving on from Grichuk and coming up with a different outfield arrangement. The Blue Jays had a potent offence in 2021 but have since lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers, perhaps motivating them to look to Suzuki as a way to replace Semien’s bat. That would still leave them with a weakened infield, however, as the departure of Semien leaves the club with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal pencilled into second and third base.

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

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MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached. Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed this scenario recently and seemed to point to its likelihood.

There’s a ten-day span from Suzuki’s posting tomorrow until that potential lockout day. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that a transaction freeze would indeed apply to Suzuki as well, meaning no team could sign him while the freeze is in place. It had been previously reported that MLB and NPB were discussing an agreement wherein Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused during the freeze. That agreement seems to have been reached, as Sherman also reports that Suzuki’s 30-day clock will not move during a lockout. That means Suzuki is going to have to decide between hastily working out a deal in just over a week or dealing with the uncertainty of waiting out this winter’s labor strife and then having around 20 days of negotiating time on the other side of that.

Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of the lineup for an MLB team, along with providing a strong arm and competent right field defense. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM. Since the reports that he was going to be posted, Suzuki has already been connected in rumors to the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Mariners.

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