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Seiya Suzuki

Rangers Have Interest In Seiya Suzuki

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Seiya Suzuki’s posting window has been paused with the MLB lockout ongoing, but whenever the current transaction freeze is lifted, the star Hiroshima Carp outfielder will have just shy of three weeks to field interest from Major League teams. Reports have already indicated that a trio of AL East clubs — Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays — are among the most interested parties, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently wrote that the Rangers like Suzuki as well.

As Brad Lefton of the New York Times wrote a couple weeks back, agent Joel Wolfe told reporters in Japan in late November that at least eight teams had expressed serious interest and that there had already been some virtual meetings conducted. In-person meetings with interested parties figure follow, post-lockout.

The extent of Texas’ interest in the 27-year-old slugger isn’t clear, though he’s an obvious on-paper fit. Adolis Garcia and offseason signee Kole Calhoun figure to be locked into a pair of outfield spots, but there’s a corner-outfield spot still largely up for grabs. At present, any of Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Leody Taveras or Eli White could vie for time there, but Suzuki would be a higher-profile offensive upgrade following what has already been a frenzied offseason of additions from president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young.

For those unfamiliar, Suzuki has been one of Japan’s most-productive hitters for several years now and is considered among the top talents in the country. Suzuki posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.

Suzuki is younger than recent NPB signees such as Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo were when they made the transition to North American ball, and he’s considerably more highly regarded than both. While multiple team evaluators told MLBTR prior to his posting that Suzuki won’t be a regular option in center, he’s still seen as an above-average option in right field — an opinion that was only reinforced last week when Suzuki won his fifth NPB Gold Glove Award for his defense in right. Even if he doesn’t stack up as an elite outfielder, he ought to more than hold his own as better-than-average option in either left or right for interested teams.

The question for the Rangers at this point is just how much more the team has left in the tank. The half-billion dollars invested in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien grabbed the majority of headlines, but the Rangers also spent another $61.2MM combined on Jon Gray and the aforementioned Kole Calhoun. That said, even with all those splashes, the Rangers’ projected 2022 payroll is currently about $127MM — well shy of 2017’s record $165MM Opening Day payroll. Another outfielder would certainly be prudent, but Texas also still has multiple holes in the rotation and the bullpen.

Grant suggests that the to-date flurry of activity makes it unlikely the Rangers will spend to the levels necessary to add someone such as Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, either of whom would figure to command considerably heavier annual salaries than Suzuki (even if Suzuki may receive a larger number of years, based on his age). Still, if the plan is to focus more resources on pitching at this point, there’s no shortage of lower-cost corner options (e.g. Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario) — and the team, of course, could just stay in-house for outfield needs.

Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Aggressive Suitors For Seiya Suzuki

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On November 22, Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, freeing him up to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams for 30 days. However, it was reported that the recent implementation of a lockout that has led to a transaction freeze has also frozen Suzuki’s 30-day clock. That means that, at the conclusion of the lockout, he will still have around 20 days to work out a deal with an MLB team. At that point, there’s a decent chance of Suzuki winding up in the AL East, according to a report from Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal. “One major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki,” McAdam writes.

The fact that Suzuki is garnering interest is not surprising, given his talents. Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB lineup, while also providing solid right field defence. Over nine seasons in the NPB, he has hit .315/.414/.570, with that production only growing over time.

The Red Sox make for a fairly logical landing spot, especially when considering the recent trade of Hunter Renfroe. Suzuki could potentially fill the right field vacancy left by Renfroe, with Verdugo manning left field and center field covered by some combination of Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez or Jackie Bradley Jr., who was part of the return in the Renfroe deal. That trade seemed to be about adding defence by subtracting offence, but the addition of Suzuki could be a way of replacing that lost offence. Kyle Schwarber, who was acquired by the Red Sox last year and would be a logical Renfroe replacement for 2022, is reportedly looking for a three-year, $60MM deal, meaning Suzuki could potentially be about half as costly on an annual basis, if MLBTR’s prediction is correct.

The fit with the Yankees is a bit less smooth, given that they have a number of outfield options already on hand. On paper, the outfield consists of Joey Gallo in left, Aaron Hicks in center and Aaron Judge in right, with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton available for the occasional appearance on the grass and prospect Estevan Florial on hand as depth. However, they may be reluctant to rely on Hicks as an everyday option, given that he’s now 32 years old and has dealt with injury setbacks in recent years, including only playing 32 games in 2021. Although he did play 54 of the team’s 60 games in the shortened 2020 season, his last significant action over a full season was 137 games in 2018. Judge, Gallo and Suzuki all have seen limited action in center field, making it at least possible for the club to have all three across the outfield at times. However, none of them are really considered an everyday option at the position, making it something of an awkward arrangement over a full season.

Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays also seem to have their outfield accounted for on paper, with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk all pencilled in. However, it was recently reported that the Jays had discussions with the Brewers about a trade centered around Grichuk and Bradley Jr., before the latter was traded to the Red Sox last week. It would appear the club is open to moving on from Grichuk and coming up with a different outfield arrangement. The Blue Jays had a potent offence in 2021 but have since lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers, perhaps motivating them to look to Suzuki as a way to replace Semien’s bat. That would still leave them with a weakened infield, however, as the departure of Semien leaves the club with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal pencilled into second and third base.

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

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MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached. Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed this scenario recently and seemed to point to its likelihood.

There’s a ten-day span from Suzuki’s posting tomorrow until that potential lockout day. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that a transaction freeze would indeed apply to Suzuki as well, meaning no team could sign him while the freeze is in place. It had been previously reported that MLB and NPB were discussing an agreement wherein Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused during the freeze. That agreement seems to have been reached, as Sherman also reports that Suzuki’s 30-day clock will not move during a lockout. That means Suzuki is going to have to decide between hastily working out a deal in just over a week or dealing with the uncertainty of waiting out this winter’s labor strife and then having around 20 days of negotiating time on the other side of that.

Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of the lineup for an MLB team, along with providing a strong arm and competent right field defense. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM. Since the reports that he was going to be posted, Suzuki has already been connected in rumors to the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Mariners.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki

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Nov. 17: Suzuki is going to be posted next week, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That would give him approximately one week to negotiate with MLB teams before the CBA expires on December 1.

Nov. 16: It had already been reported that the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were planning on posting outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League teams this winter, and now the team has confirmed those reports. After the team made the announcement earlier today, Suzuki spoke to the media about his planned transition, as relayed by Nikkan Sports and Yahoo Japan. (Both links in Japanese.)

Although the club confirmed that Suzuki will soon be posted, it doesn’t seem as though the posting has been made official just yet. This is potentially an important detail because once the posting is made official, it starts a 30-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Suzuki and his representatives. If that clock runs out without Suzuki having signed an MLB deal, he will return to the Carp.

This year, that has the potential to coincide with the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could reportedly lead to a transaction freeze. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic addressed this issue, reporting that “MLB and NPB were close to an agreement in which that clock would be stopped in the event of an industry lockout.” The wording is vague there, making it unclear if the agreement is actually in place or not, but that would be another noteworthy detail in this saga. Hypothetically, even if Suzuki were posted tomorrow, just two weeks would transpire before December 1 and the expiring of the CBA. If a transaction freeze were then implemented, Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused, leaving him with more than two weeks of negotiating time after a new CBA is implemented and transactions are resumed. Of course, all of that is contingent on that MLB-NPB agreement having been finalized.

Suzuki, 27, has been one of the best players in NPB in recent years and figures to have a robust market once the posting is made official. MLBTR recently ranked him 20th on the annual list of top free agents, noting that he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat with competent defense, and projecting he could land a contract of $55MM over five years. Since rumors of his posting emerged, he’s already been connected to the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM.

Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

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The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

Giants Notes: Belt, DeSclafani, Suzuki

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Brandon Belt has until November 17 to decide on whether to accept or reject the $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, but the club isn’t just twiddling their thumbs in the meantime. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that they met with his representatives today and “discussed several contract formats.”

After a down year in 2019, Belt has been one of the best hitters on the planet for the past couple years. Over the past two seasons, he has hit .285/.393/.595, producing a wRC+ of 163, which is third-best in MLB among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. However, the first baseman, who turns 34 in April, has been often limited by injuries. Only one of his past five campaigns saw him get into more than 112 games, and it happened to be that down year in 2019. In 2021, it was just 97 games. Still, the production is strong enough that the Giants are happy to retain him, as evidenced by the extension of the QO, but also on whatever type of multi-year deal they discussed today.

A few months ago, the club extended their other Brandon for two-years and $32MM, which could perhaps be the type of deal they’re offering Belt now, slightly less money than the QO on an annual basis, but over a longer term. MLBTR recently predicted that Belt would accept the QO and try to re-enter the market a year from now, after he has hopefully had better health and seen the NL implement the DH.

Baggarly also reports that the club met with representatives for righty Anthony DeSclafani and discussed multi-year deals for him. Zaidi has already made it clear that the rotation is the “number one priority“, which makes a lot of sense given that it currently consists of just Logan Webb, on account of DeSclafani reaching free agency, as well as Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. DeSclafani, 32 in April, had a miserable season for the Reds in 2020 but righted the ship nicely in 2021. After being picked up by the Giants, he tossed 167 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.17. MLBTR, in the same pieced linked above, recently predicted he would garner three years and $42MM, an annual average value of $14MM.

But the Giants aren’t just considering their departing free agents, of course. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they have interest in Seiya Suzuki, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams soon. Baggarly quotes Zaidi as saying that a right-handed hitting outfielder like Suzuki “kind of fits our team.” That’s a bit of an understatement, as their current outfield skews heavily the other way, with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar and Alex Dickerson all hitting from the left side and Austin Slater being the most notable righty. Kris Bryant, who hits right-handed, was brought into the mix at the trade deadline but is now a free agent.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote about the Giants as part of the Offseason Outlook series and noted that they are lined up to be one of the busiest teams this winter, given their multiple openings and limited payroll commitments. Zaidi and the rest of his team are sure to explore each and every opportunity to add to their team this winter, and all indications point to them already doing just that.

Rangers Poised For Significant Payroll Increase

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Rangers’ brass has suggested on multiple occasions the club anticipates being active in free agency this winter, and it indeed seems ownership is prepared to support an offseason spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers could add $100MM+ to their payroll this offseason.

That kind of offseason would certainly be atypical for a club coming off back-to-back last place finishes in the AL West. Texas clearly has designs at pushing forward their contention window, though. The current roster probably has too many holes for the Rangers to compete for a playoff spot next season. But adding one or more marquee players on multi-year deals could make a 2023 window more realistic, and this offseason’s free agent class has plenty of potential prime-aged targets. That indeed seems to be the front office’s thought process in projecting an active offseason.

“I don’t think we expect to just come out and be World Series contenders next season,” general manager Chris Young told reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). “That said, we expect to take major steps from where we were this year and continue to build this so that by 2023, we’re in a very good position and competing for the division and have the opportunity to make the playoffs and potentially win a World Series.”

As the Rangers have stripped down the roster in recent seasons, the team’s spending has taken a corresponding nosedive. Texas has opened seasons with a payroll north of $165MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently projects their 2022 financial commitments around just $51MM (including arbitration projections). Last month, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels indicated the club would increase spending over the coming offseasons. Daniels was deliberately vague about precisely how much money the team might allocate in each winter, but it seems there’s a chance Texas makes multiple significant additions and pushes back near franchise-record levels of spending this winter alone.

The Rangers have very few players locked in anywhere on the roster, giving Daniels, Young and the rest of the front office ample avenues to explore. This year’s free agent class features a handful of franchise shortstops — including Dallas-area native Trevor Story — as well as a strong group of corner outfielders. One of the youngest players on the market is 27-year-old Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki’s NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, are expected to make him available via the posting process.

Executives with other clubs see the Rangers as one of the prime suitors to land Suzuki, hears Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Between the star outfielder’s youth and Texas’ payroll space, it’s a fairly easy connection to draw. Suzuki is coming off a massive .319/.436/.644 showing over 530 plate appearances, and some evaluators believe he can immediately step into MLB as an above-average everyday right fielder. If the Rangers’ scouting department shares that level of optimism, then a pursuit of Suzuki makes plenty of sense. MLBTR projects the right-handed hitter to land a five-year, $55MM contract that would come with an additional $10.125MM posting fee to be paid to the Carp.

Story and Suzuki are just two of numerous options for the Rangers, who seem likely to be connected to impact players all offseason. With Texas having perhaps as much payroll flexibility and desire to add talent as anyone, it could be a winter of big-ticket pursuits in Arlington.

NPB Notes: Cardinals, Martinez, Suarez, Red Sox, Suzuki

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The Cardinals are among the teams with interest in right-hander Nick Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). Martinez, who will reach free agency at the start of December, is coming off a dominant showing with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Over 140 2/3 innings, the 31-year-old worked to a 1.60 ERA, striking out a quarter of the batters he faced in the process. After a four-season run in Japan, that strong 2021 campaign could earn Martinez another MLB look this offseason. Heyman suggests upwards of a third of MLB teams could join St. Louis in having interest in giving Martinez another opportunity stateside, although it stands to reason the Hawks would like to re-sign their star hurler as well.

A couple more notes on players currently in Japan’s top league:

  • Robert Suárez is on the radar of multiple major league teams, according to a Japanese-language report from Yahoo! Japan (h/t to Sung Min Kim). The 30-year-old has posted incredible numbers serving as the Hanshin Tigers’ closer over the past two seasons. After working to a 2.24 ERA in 52 1/3 innings in 2020, Suárez dominated to the tune of a 1.16 mark across 62 1/3 frames this past season. His peripherals were equally impressive, as the righty struck out 25.3% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 3.5% walk percentage. Suárez has never pitched in the majors but reportedly also caught the attention of big league clubs last winter.
  • The Red Sox are among the teams to have scouted NPB star Seiya Suzuki, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. They’re certainly not alone in that regard, as the Hiroshima Carp outfielder has long been regarded as one of the top talents in Japan. The Carp will make Suzuki available to major league clubs this winter via the posting system, coming off a season in which the 27-year-old mashed at a .319/.436/.644 clip with 38 homers in 530 plate appearances. Between his youth, huge numbers in NPB, and scouting reports that suggest he could immediately step in as an above-average major league right fielder, Suzuki should be one of the winter’s most in-demand free agents. MLBTR projects he’ll land a five-year, $55MM contract — an investment that would cost an MLB team $65.125MM after accounting for the posting fee that would be owed to the Carp were Suzuki to land a $55MM guarantee.

Hiroshima Carp To Post Outfielder Seiya Suzuki For MLB Teams

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will post 27-year-old outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League clubs this winter, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Yahoo Japan reported two weeks ago that Suzuki was likely to be posted for big league clubs.

Suzuki’s posting will serve as a major storyline this offseason. The slugging right fielder is considered to be among the very best players in NPB at the moment and is putting the finishing touches on a monster season that has seen him slash .319/.436/.644 with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals (in 13 tries). That’s hardly a one-year fluke, either; dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances. Unlike many sluggers, Suzuki achieves this production without selling out for the power. Since 2018, he’s fanned in only 16.4 percent of his plate appearances — compared to a nearly identical 16 percent walk rate.

MLBTR has received a broad range of opinions when checking in with teams who’ve seen Suzuki. That’s in part due to the inherent volatility associated with signing star players from foreign professional leagues, whether it be NPB, the Korea Baseball Organization or the Cuban National Series. It’s also perhaps a reflection of the fact that scouts haven’t had the type of in-person access to Suzuki in recent years that they would have had prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The most bullish opinions we’ve gotten peg Suzuki as an everyday Major League right fielder — a solid defensive player with a strong arm and enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup. In an August profile of Suzuki, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times cited a scout who called him the “best player in Japan the past few years,” and I’ve heard that sentiment echoed myself in doing background work on Suzuki. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy puts a 70-grade on Suzuki’s raw power (on the 20-80 scale), and at least one evaluator I spoke to thought he could produce 25-plus home runs with a solid batting average and strong on-base percentage. Suzuki is a four-time NPB Gold Glove winner in right field, and the expectation is that he can play average or better defense in the big leagues, even if he’s not a Gold Glover in MLB.

There’s obviously a fair bit of risk when committing significant dollars to any international star, and skeptics could point to the recent struggles from Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama in their own transitions to Major League Baseball. However, Tsutsugo was seen largely as a pure power bat with minimal defensive value and preexisting strikeout issues in Japan. Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a look just today at why Suzuki is considered a much better bet to succeed in the Majors than Tsutsugo was. Akiyama, meanwhile, was five years older than Suzuki is now when he jumped to the Majors, and he didn’t stack up in the power department. Suzuki is younger and more well-rounded than both Tsutsugo and Akiyama, and we expect interest on the free-agent market to reflect that.

Once Suzuki is formally posted, Major League clubs will have 30 days to negotiate with his representatives. As a reminder, the current iteration of the NPB-MLB posting system did away with the former blind-bidding system and the $20MM-max posting fee system. Rather, the current system determines the posting/release fee owed to the Carp based on the size of contract signed by a player.

Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee comes in addition to the contract itself, and any subsequent guaranteed money (e.g. salary unlocked through performance incentives or club options) also falls under this purview. If Suzuki does not agree to terms with a Major League club, he’d return to the Carp for the 2022 season. He could be posted a second time next winter and would be able to pursue Major League opportunities as an unrestricted free agent (i.e. outside the confines of the posting system) following the 2023 season.

Hiroshima Carp Could Post Outfielder Seiya Suzuki For MLB Clubs

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball could make top outfielder Seiya Suzuki available to Major League teams via the posting system this winter, according to a report from Yahoo Japan. The Carp have begun taking some of the necessary steps, per the report, conducting a recent MRI for updated medical records and beginning to put together the requisite paperwork.

There’s still no guarantee that Suzuki will ultimately be made available this winter, but the outfielder himself acknowledged his desire to eventually test his skills against Major League pitching during an August interview with Dylan Hernandez of the the L.A. Times. “I think everyone feels they want to play at the highest stage if they can get the chance,” Suzuki told Hernandez.

While reports of well-regarded NPB and KBO players potentially being made available to MLB clubs are common around this time of every year, Suzuki is a bit of a different case. Having recently turned 27 years old, he’s much younger than most players who are made available through the posting system or wait until accruing nine full years of service time to reach unrestricted international free agency. He’s also widely regarded as one of the best players in NPB.

Hernandez quotes a big league scout calling Suzuki a “five-tool guy” and “the best player in Japan the last few years.” Sung Min Kim, who’s written for both FanGraphs and The Athletic, tweets that several MLB Pacific Rim scouts have considered Suzuki the top NPB or KBO player with a realistic chance of being posted in recent years. Longtime Orioles center fielder Adam Jones, who’s spent the past two seasons playing against him in Japan, tweets that Suzuki is an MLB-caliber talent. Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions wrote last October that Suzuki fits the strong-armed, power-hitting profile of a prototypical right fielder.

While there’s a gap in terms of the quality of pitching he’d face, everything Suzuki has done in NPB indicates that he’s indeed one of the most talented hitters in that league. He made his NPB debut at just 18 years of age in 2013, and while it was only an 11-game cup of coffee, he’d cemented himself as a regular for the Carp by his age-20 season. Suzuki posted a .731 OPS that year (2015), and that was the last time he’s had an OPS south of .936 in any given season.

Dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances. That includes 38 home runs and 26 doubles in just 526 plate appearances this season. Since 2018, Suzuki has walked at a huge 16 percent clip that is almost a mirror image of his 16.4 percent strikeout rate. He broke into NPB as an infielder, but he moved to right field in 2016 and has gone on to win four Gold Gloves for his work there.

The recent track record of outfielders making the move from NPB to MLB hasn’t been great, as neither Shogo Akiyama nor Yoshi Tsutsugo has lived up to expectations with their respective contracts (three years, $21MM from the Reds to Akiyama; two years, $12MM from the Rays to Tsutsugo). That said, Suzuki’s case looks quite a bit more compelling. Akiyama was posted in advance of his age-32 season and had never matched Suzuki’s power. Tsutsugo had more comparable power, but he also had significant strikeout issues in NPB and was not considered a good defender.

If Suzuki is indeed posted for big league clubs this winter, he’ll be the youngest and one of the most intriguing options on the corner outfield market. Alternatives, at present, include Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham, Jorge Soler and (depending on where you’d play him) Kris Bryant. Nick Castellanos is widely expected to opt out of the final two years of his deal with the Reds, and Avisail Garcia seems likely to decline his half of a $12MM mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout and a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos and Conforto will likely be tagged with qualifying offers, and it’s at least feasible (though less likely) that Milwaukee would consider the same for Garcia.

Suzuki wouldn’t come with the draft pick compensation as free agents who reject that QO, but as a posted player, he’d cost his new team more than just the base value of his contract. Under the latest iteration of the NPB-MLB posting system, all 30 clubs would be able to negotiate freely with Suzuki. The team with which he eventually signs would then owe a release fee to Suzuki’s former team, the Carp. That fee correlates directly with the size of the contract. Any team that signed Suzuki would pay a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM to the Carp. The fee also includes 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter.

The release fee would be on top of the actual contract for Suzuki. For example (and not to say this is the type of contract Suzuki will command), a $50MM contract would cost a big league team a total of $59.375MM — $50MM to the player and $9.375MM to the former NPB club. Option years and incentives/bonuses are also factored in if they are eventually unlocked (e.g. a $10MM club option tacked on top of that theoretical $50MM deal would require the MLB club to pay $1.5MM to the NPB team once it is picked up — 15 percent of the guarantee beyond $50MM).

The posting process for Suzuki wouldn’t begin until after the conclusion of this year’s NPB season. Posting windows last for 30 days, and the fact that negotiations with Suzuki would coincide with ongoing collective bargaining negotiations between MLB and the MLB Players Association could complicate matters. If the Carp decide against posting Suzuki, or if he is posted and does not agree to a deal with a Major League team, Suzuki would return to the Carp for his age-27 campaign next year. He’s still two years from unrestricted free agency, so if he doesn’t come to MLB via the posting system this winter, it’s possible yet that the Carp could post him a second time next winter.

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