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Mets Not Done Upgrading Rotation

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When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.

Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.

For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.

The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.

Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.

Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37,  Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.

Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.

The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.

Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

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The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

Athletics Appear Set For Significant Payroll Reduction

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7:29 pm: Forst addressed the club’s likely forthcoming payroll cuts this evening, telling Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) the team is willing to field offers for any player on the roster. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

10:30 am: The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon. General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.

“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”

While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50MM. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.

One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how, based on their typical payroll levels, the A’s were unlikely to spend to keep a deep arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over this season’s $83.8MM payroll — already the fourth-highest in franchise history and not far below the team record of $92MM. That increase would come before making a single addition to the 2022 roster.

When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12MM, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2MM), Chapman ($9.5MM), Bassitt ($8.8MM) and Montas ($5.2MM) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.

The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25MM, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25MM through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.

Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:

  • Olson (28 next year): A 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Olson leads all first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved and a 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2017. He’s sixth among first basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average during that time. Olson swatted a career-best 39 home runs in 2021 and, most importantly, cut his once-problematic strikeout rate to an 16.8% level that is well below the league average. Olson walks at a high clip, has massive left-handed power, plays elite defense and looks to have made huge gains in his contact skills. He hit .271/.371/.540 in 2021 despite a cavernous home stadium.
  • Chapman (29 next year): As with Olson, Chapman is a preternatural defender. Since 2017, the two-time Platinum Glover leads third basemen in DRS (78) and UZR (48.7) and trails only Nolan Arenado in OAA (48). Chapman has huge power, but his contact trends have gone in the opposite direction of Olson. Chapman, whose 2020 season ended early due to hip surgery, struck out at a 22.8% clip from 2018-19 but a 33.1% pace in 2020-21. The glove is still elite, and Chapman has still bashed 37 homers in his past 774 plate appearances while walking at an 11.4% clip. The current version of Chapman has huge value, but if the strikeouts decline as he further distances himself from the hip injury, he has MVP-caliber talent.
  • Manaea (30 next year): Manaea’s 2018 season ended with major shoulder surgery, and he missed most of 2019 while on the mend. Since returning, he’s delivered 263 innings of 3.73 ERA  ball with near-identical reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.78). In that time, Manaea has a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 43.8% grounder rate — all strong marks. He moved from a four-seamer to a sinker this season, and the 92.2 mph average on that sinker was the best velocity on his primary offering since his four-seamer sat 93.1 mph as a rookie in 2016. He’s a one-year rental, but a good one.
  • Bassitt (33 next year): A frightening injury that saw Bassitt struck in the face by a 100 mph-plus line drive in August looked like it might end his season. Bassitt, however, returned from surgery to repair facial fractures on Sept. 23 and made two appearances to close out his season (6 1/3 innings, one run allowed). Since establishing himself as a big leaguer in 2018, the late-blooming righty has a 3.23 ERA, a 23.1% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate and a 42.3% grounder rate in 412 innings. This past season’s 25% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were career-highs. Like Manaea, Bassitt is a free agent next winter but would make a fine rental for a contender.
  • Montas (29 next year): Montas consistently averages better than 96 mph on his heater. The 2021 season was his first topping 100 innings, thanks to a combination of injuries, the shortened 2020 campaign and an 80-game PED ban. Lack of innings notwithstanding, Montas has been effective on the whole since 2018, logging a combined 3.57 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates. The 2021 season looked to be a true breakout, as Montas ranked ninth in MLB with 187 innings and turned in a 3.37 ERA with a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.

The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.

In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.

The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

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The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Athletics, Astros Name Starters For First Two Games Of ALDS

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The Oakland A’s will switch up their starting rotation heading into their ALDS series with the Houston Astros. Chris Bassitt – who started the 2nd game of the wild card series – will take the hill in the series opener, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (via Twitter).

It would be easy to confuse Bassitt for a fungible back-end rotation type, but he’s been a consistent performer for Oakland over the years. This season represented a breakout of sorts for the 31-year-old, who went 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA/3.59 FIP over 11 starts in the regular season. He went 7 innings, giving up just 1 earned run to keep the A’s season alive in game 2 of the wild card round against the White Sox.

Lefty Sean Manaea will look for postseason redemption when he gets the ball in game 2, per Gallegos. Manaea – Gallegos reminds us – gave up 3 home runs over just two innings last season in a wild card game loss to the Rays. He’ll be familiar with his surroundings at Dodger Stadium, as his last start came in that very park a little under two weeks ago. For the year, Manaea went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA/3.71 FIP in 11 starts.

Manaea is one of a number of southpaws the A’s could throw at the Astros, who as a team marked a 94 wRC+ against lefties in 2020 versus 102 wRC+ against right-handers. Alex Bregman crushed lefties in 2020 for a 166 wRC+, but each of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Tucker performed markedly better versus right-handers this season.

After Bassitt and Manaea, the A’s could go in a number of different directions, which will likely depend on the results of the first two games. Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, Mike Minor, and Mike Fiers could all be possibilities to start games 3 through 5. That group gives the A’s a slight advantage over the Astros when it comes to their rotations, writes MLB.com’s Andrew Simon.

It would be quite the showdown for Fiers to get a start late in this series. Fiers, of course, famously outed the Astros in the sign-stealing scandal that rocked the baseball world last winter. The Astros and A’s already have enough to fight about given the early-season altercation between Ramon Laureano and Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron, which led to suspensions for the involved parties.

All that said, Fiers may very well not be the best option for the A’s. Though he started the deciding third game of the wild card series, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings. In prior seasons, he’s been passed over for key postseason starts both with the Astros and the Athletics. Luzardo is certain to land higher on the pecking order than Fiers, though he could be utilized out of the bullpen as he was in 2019. The same can be said for Montas, who came out of the bullpen for a two-inning stint against the White Sox.

On the other side, manager Dusty Baker announced Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez as the starters for games 1 and 2, respectively, per the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan and others. The only real surprise here is that Zack Greinke would then be held out until game 3. Greinke is less likely than others to show up out of the bullpen the way Valdez did in game 1 of the wild card series. Still, with a 5-game series in 5 days, there figures to be less opportunity for that sort of roster manipulation. There will be a game 3, and no matter how the first two games of the series go, the Astros figure to feel pretty good with a rested Greinke ready to go in game 3. Baker, to be clear, has not named his game 3 starter.

Athletics Avoid Arbitration With Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks

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The Athletics have avoided arbitration with a series of key players. Of particular note, shortstop Marcus Semien will earn $13MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Increasingly excellent reliever Liam Hendriks also gets a nice boost, checking in at $5.3MM, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Ditto outfielder Mark Canha, who’ll earn $4.8MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).

Also securing notable numbers were lefty Sean Manaea ($3.75MM) and outfielder Robbie Grossman ($3.725MM) with those reports also coming from the Twitter accounts of Slusser and Nightengale. Righty Chris Bassitt also finished off a $2.25MM deal at the last moment, Slusser tweets, thus completing the Oakland arb business for the offseason.

As compared to the projected arb values, most of the numbers don’t stand out. Semien is half a million shy of the mark set by the model, while Hendriks ($200K) and Canha ($100K) also come in just under that level. Manaea and Grossman bettered their projections ($3.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively) while Bassitt fell shy of his ($2.8MM).

It remains to be seen whether there’ll be further contract talks between the A’s and Semien, who stands out as an extension target as he enters his final season of team control. In all likelihood, it would take a team-record contract to keep him around after a breakout 2019 campaign. Hendriks is also slated to hit the open market at the close of the coming season.

Postseason Notes: Wild Card, Brewers, Dodgers

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As twenty teams prepare to pack it in for the offseason, a few odds and ends concerning those still remaining in the battle for a World Series crown…

  • The 2019 playoff picture is officially set. The Rays will head to Oakland for the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday, Oct. 2, with first pitch at 8:09 pm EST. Earlier this week, Rays manager Kevin Cash appeared on MLB Network Radio, where he made comments indicating that Charlie Morton would take the ball on Wednesday for Tampa. No official word has come from the Athletics regarding their own one-game stopper, but Billy Beane hinted to the San Francisco Chronicle that Sean Manaea may have the “inside track” to tackle the opportunity.
    The Nationals and Brewers will do battle on Tuesday at 8:08 pm EST in Washington D.C. for the NL play-in spot, where Max Scherzer is expected to take the ball for the Nationals. Meanwhile, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that Brandon Woodruff will be trusted by manager Craig Counsell to best Scherzer in the winner-moves-on affair (link). Woodruff may not carry the imposing resumé of Scherzer (nor does he possess a rare genetic variation that endows him with transfixing, multi-colored eyes), but he has looked the part of a frontline starter when healthy in 2019, with a 3.62 ERA (3.01 FIP) in 121.2 innings this season.
  • In other Brewers-related news, outfielder Ryan Braun expects to play in that Tuesday tilt against D.C. Haudricort also relays that outfielder Lorenzo Cain is “hopeful” for the game (link). Braun is dealing with a calf issue, while Cain has a balky ankle. As previously noted here, the Brewers may be limited to Trent Grisham or Tyrone Taylor in center if Cain is indeed too hindered to give it a ’go’ on Tuesday night.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t yet announced the full pitching lineup for the NLDS, but he tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Time that he is “feeling really good” about trusting Rich Hill with potential Game 4 duties (link). Hill was only activated from the IL on September 24th but did strike out five Padre hitters in just two innings of work in that appearance. As the number-one seed in the National League, the Dodgers will host the winner of the Nats-Brewers Wild Card play-in matchup. The Dodgers, in fact, will play at home throughout the postseason, unless they face the Astros in the World Series–by posting an MLB-best 107-55 record, Houston clinched homefield advantage through the Fall Classic.

 

Sean Manaea To Return Sunday

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Oakland A’s lefty Sean Manaea is set to return to the big leagues when rosters expand. He will get the start against the Yankees on Sunday, tweets MLB.com’s William Ladson.

Manaea was emerging as the ace of Oakland’s staff when he hit the injured list with a left shoulder impingement in late August of last season. Eventual shoulder surgery has kept him behind the scenes of the 2019 season until now. At the time of the injury, Manaea had made 27 starts, going 12-9 with a 3.59 ERA/4.26 FIP across a career-high 160 2/3 innings.

He has been on a rehab assignment since early July where he appears back to his old tricks. In eight starts across High-A and Triple-A, he’s notched 13.1 K/9 while yielding 2.5 BB/9 and an overall 4.71 ERA.

The A’s currently field a veteran-laden, if starless rotation featuring Mike Fiers, Tanner Roark, Chris Bassitt, Brett Anderson, and Homer Bailey. A healthy Manaea should certainly buoy this group, as will the potential addition of prospect Jesus Luzardo at some point in September, though Oakland plans its September additions “to come in waves,” per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

Fiers/Roark/Bassitt/Anderson boast ERAs that are a combined 3.98 runs lower than their relative FIPs, though whatever dark arts the quartet are engaged in, they’ve not shared with likely odd-man-out Bailey. With a 5.52 ERA/4.02 FIP in 8 starts since joining Oakland, Bailey is the only one of the five whose ERA has underperformed relative to his FIP. He’ll get at least one more start today, but the A’s could very well use the additional roster space to give each of their veteran hurlers an extra day of rest.

AL West Notes: Haniger, Tucker, Manaea

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While Mariners right fielder Mitch Haniger was deemed close to untouchable in trade talks last offseason, some around the game expect him to be available in the coming offseason, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That’s hardly a firm indication that Seattle will push to move Haniger when his value has diminished, but the 28-year-old (29 in December) would make an interesting addition to the winter trade market should the Mariners entertain offers on him. Haniger has been out for more than two months due a to a ruptured testicle that required surgical repair, and he wasn’t anywhere near his best when healthy, hitting .220/.314/.463 with 15 home runs in 283 trips to the plate. But he logged a combined .284/.361/.492 batting line (134 OPS+) in 2016-17 with the Mariners and can still be controlled through the 2022 season. Add in quality defensive marks in right field plus the ability to man center field when needed, and it’s easy to see why Haniger would hold appeal throughout the league even on the heels of a down campaign. Broadly speaking, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is as open-minded about trades as any baseball ops leader in the game, so it stands to reason that Haniger and others will be oft-cited trade candidates this winter, whether a deal comes to fruition or not.

More from the AL West…

  • Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker’s wait to return to the big leagues will be over in the near future, writes Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required). At the very least, the 22-year-old will be in line for a September call-up (perhaps after the Triple-A season ends), and he could factor into Houston’s postseason plans as well, depending on how many pitchers the club plans to carry. Tucker took a professional tone when discussing the fact that he understands why he’s still in Triple-A, given then outfield depth the Astros have on the big league roster, adding: “…obviously, I wish I’d be up there helping out, too.” Tucker’s recent exposure to playing first base came at his own request in an effort to enhance his versatility, Kaplan notes, and that added position could be a ticket to carving out more regular at-bats in the Majors next season. Houston has Josh Reddick, George Springer, Michael Brantley and Jake Marisnick all under control for next season and has Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel and Aledmys Diaz in the mix as first base/DH options. Despite that wealth of options, though, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow has effectively made Tucker off limits when other teams have inquired about his availability, signaling that he’ll eventually be leaned upon as a key contributor in the Astros’ lineup.
  • Left-hander Sean Manaea threw 91 pitches and picked up a win in his latest start for the Athletics’ Triple-A club in Las Vegas. Manaea, on the mend from shoulder surgery, had his rehab assignment halted briefly this month due to some discomfort in his side but has now made a pair of outings since returning and looks to be largely stretched out. In his past three rehab appearances with the Aviators, Manaea has a 2.70 ERA and a 24-to-4 K/BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings of work. When and how he’ll be worked back into the rotation remains unclear, but the A’s will have to make a decision on that front relatively soon. The most logical candidate to lose a rotation spot would be veteran righty Homer Bailey, who is slated to take the mound tomorrow night when the Yankees visit the A’s. Each of Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson and Chris Bassitt have pitched well in 2019, and recently acquired righty Tanner Roark has a better track record than Bailey in recent years as well. Rosters are set to expand in September, which will give the A’s more flexibility with how they structure their pitching staff.
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