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Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea To Be Shut Down Another Two Weeks Due To Setback In Rehab

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Mets left-hander Sean Manaea started the season on the 15-day injured list due to a right oblique strain but he’ll need more time than that to rejoin the club. Manager Carlos Mendoza today told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that the southpaw suffered a setback in his rehab. He got a platelet-rich plasma injection and will be shut down for another two weeks. Even if he’s healthy after that shutdown period, he’ll need a full ramp-up after that, meaning the best-case scenario is a return in late May or early June.

That’s obviously less than ideal news for the Mets. Manaea gave them 32 starts last year with a 3.87 earned run average. He logged 181 2/3 innings with a 24.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. The club liked his performance enough to re-sign him via a three-year, $75MM deal, though with some notable deferrals.

So far, they’ve received nothing for that investment. Manaea was diagnosed with his oblique injury in late February and missed the entire spring. He’s already missed a few days of the regular season and his absence will extend for several more weeks.

He’s one of several starters currently on the shelf. Christian Scott had Tommy John surgery in September of last year and will most likely miss the entire 2025 season. Frankie Montas is out with a lat strain and still isn’t throwing. Paul Blackburn also started the season on the injured list due, in his case due to right knee inflammation.

The Mets have started the season with Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and David Peterson starting the first four contests. Kodai Senga is scheduled to start tonight. That rotation will have to do for the time being, as it doesn’t appear any of Manaea, Montas or Blackburn are close to a return.

If another injury should pop up before anyone in that group can make it back, Justin Hagenman is on the 40-man roster. Prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell aren’t yet on the roster but are pitching in Triple-A to start this year.

One small silver lining of Manaea’s delay is that the Mets could now transfer him to the 60-day injured list, as such a move would still allow him to be activated in late May. That will give the club an extra 40-man roster spot to use on selecting a player from the minors or perhaps grabbing someone off waivers. Their 40-man count is currently at 38, however, so they won’t need to make a call on Manaea until they make a few more roster moves.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Madrigal Diagnosed With Shoulder Fracture; Manaea To Begin Season On IL With Oblique Strain

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Mets infielder Nick Madrigal has been diagnosed with a fracture in his left shoulder after undergoing an MRI, manager Carlos Mendoza announced to the team’s beat this morning (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). He’ll be out “for a long time,” per Mendoza, though a formal timeline isn’t yet established. Madrigal is headed for a CT scan for further evaluation. Mendoza also revealed that left-hander Sean Manaea has a right oblique strain that will shut him down for the next couple weeks, likely ticketing him for the injured list to begin the season (via Newsday’s Tim Healey).

Madrigal’s injury occurred while playing shortstop during yesterday’s spring contest against the Nationals. The former top prospect charged a grounder that kicked off the mound, making a barehanded play and falling to the ground as he threw to first base (video link via MLB.com). Commentary noted that Madrigal headed straight for the dugout upon getting up, so it’s clear he knew something was amiss right away. He was originally diagnosed with a dislocated shoulder, but imaging revealed the fracture that will shelve him for a considerable period.

The Mets inked Madrigal to a split major league contract that paid him at a $1.35MM rate in the majors. The former No. 4 overall pick has a minor league option remaining and might’ve been bound for Triple-A to begin the year, but he’ll presumably head to the major league 60-day IL whenever the Mets next need a roster spot instead. He wasn’t expected to have a starting role, with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil lined up in the middle infield and Mark Vientos at third base, but a strong camp would likely have put Madrigal in line for a bench role.

Instead, the Mets will presumably tap into their upper-minors depth. Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña have all drawn top-100 fanfare at various points in recent seasons. Baty isn’t an option to back up at shortstop, however, and Mauricio is still on the mend from the ACL tear that cost him the entire 2024 season. He’s not expected to play in spring games until mid-March. Acuña, who made his big league debut late last year, seems the likeliest in-house candidate to step into Madrigal’s spot.

It’s possible that the long-term nature of the injury could prompt the Mets to look outside the organization, where fan and clubhouse favorite Jose Iglesias remains unsigned. The Mets all but announced they were moving on from Iglesias a couple weeks back, with president of baseball operations David Stearns noting a lack of roster flexibility at the time.

Signing Iglesias would give the Mets a bench full of players who cannot be optioned to Triple-A. Catcher Luis Torrens and outfielder Tyrone Taylor have both exhausted their slate of minor league options, while Starling Marte can’t be optioned without his consent — as is his right as a player with five-plus years of major league service time. Iglesias would be in that same boat. In the event of an Iglesias signing, the only position player on the Mets’ roster who could be optioned would be Francisco Alvarez, who’s obviously not at risk of being sent down.

The loss of Manaea, meanwhile, further thins out a rotation that will see Frankie Montas shelved by a lat strain to begin the season. That takes two members out of the Opening Day rotation, which now likely includes a combination of Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill. It’s not a formidable group, with health and workload questions permeating the entire staff.

That said, the Mets weren’t planning to add another starter after losing Montas to a longer-term injury than the one Manaea currently faces. Montas will likely be sidelined into mid-May at the earliest. Manaea could very plausibly return in April if he rehabs the oblique issue without any setbacks. The immediate outcry among many Mets fans on social media was to use the Manaea injury as the impetus to re-sign Jose Quintana, but Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are still planning to stick with in-house options.

On the one hand, it’s sensible enough that a short-term Manaea absence won’t prompt what would surely be an eight-figure expenditure after factoring in luxury taxes. Signing Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn or another veteran hurler for the full season when Manaea could miss as few as three to four starts in April could be construed as an overreaction.

On the other, the Mets quite arguably didn’t do enough with their rotation this winter in the first place. Senga pitched in one game last year due to injuries. Montas’ 2023 was wiped out by shoulder surgery, and he posted a 4.84 ERA over 150 innings in last year’s return. Holmes is converting to the rotation after six years pitching exclusively as a reliever. Canning was non-tendered and has a 4.96 ERA over his past three seasons. Blackburn is a fourth/fifth starter who was limited to 75 innings by a spinal injury last year. The rotation lacks certainty even when it’s at full strength — and the Mets are a ways off from full strength as things stand.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mets Notes: Manaea Contract Details, Alonso

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After previously reporting that Sean Manaea’s deal with the Mets would include $23.25MM in deferred payments, Will Sammon of The Athletic offered more details on the structure of Manaea’s contract this morning.

Manaea will earn equal $25MM salaries in all three years of the deal, adding up to the reported total guarantee of $75MM. However, $7.75MM of his salary will be deferred without interest each season, adding up to the reported total of $23.25MM in deferrals. As Sammon previously mentioned, the deferrals will be paid out in equal portions over 10 years from 2035-44. Sammon also notes that Manaea can earn standard additional incentives for making an All-Star appearance ($50K), winning a Gold Glove ($50K), winning LCS MVP ($50K), winning World Series MVP ($100K), and finishing top-three in Cy Young voting ($50K for first place, $25K for second place, $10K for third place).

The deferred payments mean that Manaea’s contract isn’t quite worth $75MM in present-day value. Therefore, the luxury tax hit for the Mets won’t be quite as high as his $25MM AAV. Jon Becker of FanGraphs suggests the present-day value of his AAV for luxury tax purposes is just over $22MM. That’s not entirely insignificant to the Mets, who will be paying the luxury tax once again in 2025. It’s also interesting that Manaea’s contract is about $1MM less valuable than the three-year, $67MM deal his former teammate Luis Severino signed with the Athletics. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that Manaea turned down that same offer from the A’s before they gave it to Severino instead. Of course, it’s not hard to understand why Manaea would rather pitch for the Mets than the A’s, but it’s interesting that he technically took a discount to re-sign with New York.

In another Mets update, Sammon theorizes that “contract length” is currently what’s holding up a deal between the Mets and Pete Alonso. Heyman recently made a similar suggestion, saying “I do think the years are the hang-up right now” (per Jon Heyman’s Insider Notebook on Bleacher Report). Back in December, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Mets were still “pushing hard” to reunite with Alonso. From Alonso’s perspective, it’s hard to picture a better fit than the only team he’s ever known. Yet, a deal hasn’t come together. A disagreement over contract length could certainly explain why.

Presumably, Alonso and his agent Scott Boras are still looking to beat the guaranteed money from the seven-year, $158MM extension he reportedly turned down from the Mets in the summer of 2023. To do so, he’d need to sign for at least $137.5MM this winter (he already earned the first $20.5MM in 2024 during his final year of arbitration). It’s hard to imagine Alonso approaching that number on anything shorter than a six-year contract. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to understand why teams would balk at offering a six-year contract to a 30-year-old first baseman coming off two consecutive down years.

Mets Sign Sean Manaea

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On Friday evening, the Mets officially announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a three-year deal. The Boras Corporation client receives a $75MM guarantee. The deal reportedly contains $23.25MM in deferred money, which will be paid between 2035-44. New York had multiple open roster spots, so no further move was necessary.

Manaea, 33 in February, is now poised to sign with the Mets for the second consecutive offseason. In the first week of January earlier this year, the southpaw landed with New York on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $28MM and included an opt-out following the 2024 campaign. It was the second winter in a row that saw Manaea sign a two-year deal with an opt out after he signed with the Giants on a $25MM guarantee during the 2022-23 offseason.

That first contract in San Francisco was inked on the heels of a brutal 2022 season in San Diego that saw Manaea struggle to a 4.96 ERA (76 ERA+) with a 4.53 FIP in 158 innings of work. His time with the Giants went better than that; while his 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+) was still below average but he nonetheless entered the offseason boasting much stronger peripherals (3.91 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) and a solid run of starts down the stretch that September where he posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP.

The Mets clearly believed that portended better days in Manaea’s future, and it certainly did. The lefty emerged as a quality mid-rotation option for New York in 2024 as he posted a 3.47 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.83 FIP in a career-high 181 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts. With a career year in the books ahead of his third consecutive trip to free agency, it seemed as though Manaea was looking for longer-term security. The Mets opted to tag the lefty with the Qualifying Offer at the outset of the winter, but it was hardly a surprise when Manaea rejected that one-year, $21.05MM offer and entered the open market anyway. After all, the lefty came into the winter ranked by MLBTR as the #10 free agent available on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and the #5 starter behind only Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty.

Early in the offseason, the fact that Manaea was encumbered by the QO led a number of clubs that likely would’ve had interest in a mid-rotation veteran like him to turn towards alternative options. The Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs turned in the early days of the offseason to unencumbered free agents like Yusei Kikuchi, Snell, and Matthew Boyd rather than delve into the markets of qualified free agents like Manaea, Nick Pivetta, or Luis Severino.

That’s not a consideration for the Mets, however, as reuniting with Manaea only costs the hypothetical draft pick they would’ve received had he signed elsewhere. That’s allowed Manaea to land a healthy guarantee despite a fairly small list of teams connected to him this winter: his three-year, $75MM deal exceeds the three-year, $60MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him at the outset of the offseason but that’s hardly a surprise given that virtually every starting pitcher’s contract has exceeded expectations. Additionally, it’s of course possible that the deferred money in Manaea’s deal drops the net present value closer to MLBTR’s prediction.

For New York, a reunion with Manaea serves as a likely capstone on the club’s efforts to reconstruct its starting rotation after he, Severino, and Jose Quintana all hit the open market last month. The club added Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to their rotation mix earlier this winter, but that duo offers little stability given Montas’s struggles in 2025 and the fact that Holmes last started a game in the majors back in 2018. Manaea provides that much-needed stability while slotting towards the front of a rotation that also includes talented right-hander Kodai Senga and young southpaw David Peterson.

With depth options like Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning all in the wings to help cover for potential injuries, it would hardly be a surprise if Manaea’s return wrapped up the team’s rotation additions for the winter. That doesn’t mean the club is done entirely, however. Even with a hefty 2025 payroll that RosterResource estimates will land just shy of $280MM as things stand, that still leaves $56MM of room to work with before the Mets match their 2024 figure. That should leave plenty of room for the Mets to sign a corner infield bat to pair with Mark Vientos, whether that ends up being a reunion with Pete Alonso or an alternative option such as Alex Bregman and perhaps bolster other areas of the roster such as the bullpen or the bench.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Mets and Manaea had agreed to a three-year, $75MM deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported that the deal included $23.25MM in deferred money to be paid between 2035-44. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Mets Interested In Eovaldi, Manaea, Pivetta, Flaherty

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The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents.  Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics.  New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.

Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon.  Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.

Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal.  Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers.  MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.

Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series.  The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons.  The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.

Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit.  The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February).  However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.

MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract.  It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23.  This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.

Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander.  There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency.  Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.

The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits.  Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services.  Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher.  This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent.  Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings.  This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent).  Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.

A’s Also Made Offer To Sean Manaea

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The Athletics’ three-year, $67MM contract with Luis Severino stunned many baseball fans. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the West Sacramento-bound club hadn’t spent more than $15MM on a free agent since signing Ryan Madson to a three-year, $22MM deal nearly a decade ago. The $67MM guarantee stands as the largest in franchise history, surpassing Eric Chavez’s 20-year record by $1MM. The A’s had signaled that they might be willing to spend in free agency or via trade — MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored the possibilities at length last month — and there were multiple reports that the A’s were aiming for a $100MM payroll. Many still took an “I’ll believe it when I see it approach.”

We’ve now seen it — or at least the early stages of it. It might still feel unusual to say the A’s agreed to sign a player for $22MM+ annual value, but that’s the reality. There are also some indications that the on-the-move A’s could continue to spend. For instance, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the A’s also made a “big” offer to free agent southpaw Sean Manaea, who made his MLB debut with the Athletics after coming over from the Royals in the 2015 Ben Zobrist trade.

That offer came prior to their deal with Severino, Heyman notes. It’s not expressly clear that the A’s would be willing to put forth another competitive offer for an upper-tier free agent like Manaea, but the Severino deal and talk of a $100MM payroll target suggests it’s certainly possible. Even with Severino in the fold, RosterResource projects a modest $58MM payroll. There’s room for another weighty salary to be added to the mix, be it in the form of a free agent, a trade acquisition, or both.

One notable aspect of the reported offer to Manaea: the left-hander, like Severino, rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets at the beginning of the offseason. The A’s seem willing to spend at the expense of next year’s draft pool. Severino cost them their third-highest pick — the standard price paid by a revenue-sharing recipient — and now that they’ve forfeited that selection, the cost to sign an additional qualified free agent is reduced. The A’s surrendered their second-round pick to sign Severino — they pick in the first round and in Competitive Balance Round A, between the first and second rounds — and they’d now “only” need to punt their third rounder to bring in Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Christian Walker or another free agent who turned down the qualifying offer.

The A’s could use more stability in the rotation and have at least one corner outfield opening. They have young options at first base (Tyler Soderstrom), second base (Zack Gelof) and shortstop (Jacob Wilson) — all of them picked in the top two rounds of the draft and all of whom are/were highly touted prospects. There’s more of an opening at third base, where Darell Hernaiz and Max Schuemann likely lead the pack, although Gelof could potentially slide over to third base as well if the A’s want to pursue a second baseman. The bullpen, of course, could use some setup arms behind standout closer Mason Miller. There’s no shortage of areas at which to spend, and it seems the A’s are indeed intent on bolstering payroll ahead of the move to their temporary home at Sutter Home Park.

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Sean Manaea To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Left-hander Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Mets, per Alden González of ESPN (X link). The southpaw was one of 13 players who received a qualifying offer this year, with the deadline for decisions tomorrow at 3pm Central.

As noted by González, the news doesn’t come as a surprise, as Manaea never really seemed like a candidate to accept the offer. He has a lengthy track record of major league success, with an earned run average of 4.00 in almost 1200 innings, and is coming off one of his best seasons.

Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason, a two-year deal with a $28MM guarantee but an opt-out midway through. The lefty would make $14.5MM in 2024 and then have to decide whether or not to walk away from a $13.5MM salary for 2025.

He eventually made 32 starts for the Mets in his age-32 season, logging 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier this month, Manaea had altered his arm slot and pregame workout midseason, which seemingly made him even stronger as the year went along. Over his last 20 starts, he posted a 3.05 ERA while pairing a 26% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. He also made four postseason starts with the Mets as they pushed as far as game six of the NLCS.

That strong performance made it an easy decision for Manaea to opt-out and return to free agency in search of a larger guarantee. It also wasn’t tough for the Mets to issue the QO, knowing that Manaea could reject it and still have plenty of suitors in free agency. MLBTR predicted Manaea for a $60MM deal over three years, even with the QO attached.

The Mets will now be in line to receive modest compensation if Manaea eventually signs with another club. As competitive balance tax payors, they will receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to a penalty, though the specifics of that will depend upon whether the signing club was a tax payor or revenue sharing recipient.

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