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12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Sean Manaea To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Left-hander Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Mets, per Alden González of ESPN (X link). The southpaw was one of 13 players who received a qualifying offer this year, with the deadline for decisions tomorrow at 3pm Central.

As noted by González, the news doesn’t come as a surprise, as Manaea never really seemed like a candidate to accept the offer. He has a lengthy track record of major league success, with an earned run average of 4.00 in almost 1200 innings, and is coming off one of his best seasons.

Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason, a two-year deal with a $28MM guarantee but an opt-out midway through. The lefty would make $14.5MM in 2024 and then have to decide whether or not to walk away from a $13.5MM salary for 2025.

He eventually made 32 starts for the Mets in his age-32 season, logging 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier this month, Manaea had altered his arm slot and pregame workout midseason, which seemingly made him even stronger as the year went along. Over his last 20 starts, he posted a 3.05 ERA while pairing a 26% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. He also made four postseason starts with the Mets as they pushed as far as game six of the NLCS.

That strong performance made it an easy decision for Manaea to opt-out and return to free agency in search of a larger guarantee. It also wasn’t tough for the Mets to issue the QO, knowing that Manaea could reject it and still have plenty of suitors in free agency. MLBTR predicted Manaea for a $60MM deal over three years, even with the QO attached.

The Mets will now be in line to receive modest compensation if Manaea eventually signs with another club. As competitive balance tax payors, they will receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to a penalty, though the specifics of that will depend upon whether the signing club was a tax payor or revenue sharing recipient.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Mets To Issue Qualifying Offers To Severino, Manaea

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The Mets are issuing the $21.05MM qualifying offer to both Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X links). There’s no surprise in Manaea’s case, though Severino was more of a borderline call. The pitchers will have until November 19 to determine whether to lock in that salary. That’ll give their representatives just over two weeks to gauge the market.

Manaea is coming off one of the better platform years of anyone in the rotation class. He turned in a 3.47 earned run average while striking out a quarter of opponents through a career-high 181 2/3 innings. The southpaw had an excellent second half that coincided with a dip in his arm angle and an increased use of his sinker. He’ll probably be limited to three-year offers as he enters his age-33 season, though those could come at a comparable annual value to the QO price. He shouldn’t give much consideration to accepting.

Severino could have a more interesting decision. The hard-throwing righty worked to a 3.91 ERA across 182 frames spanning 31 starts. It was a nice rebound from his terrible final season with the Yankees. Severino improved his ground-ball rate to 46% but didn’t find the kind of bat-missing ability that made him a high-end starter during his early days in the Bronx. He fanned 21.2% of batters faced while getting swinging strikes at a well below-average 9.4% clip.

The lack of whiffs could lead to trepidation from some teams. Severino has plus velocity and good control, though, and he proved capable of shouldering a full workload for the first time since 2018. With Manaea virtually certain to decline the QO, the Mets were willing to risk bringing Severino back on a decent one-year salary. They’re likely to find themselves in the top tier of luxury tax penalization next season. That’d entail paying a 110% tax, potentially putting them on the hook for more than $44MM.

If Severino declines the offer in search of a three- or four-year deal, the Mets would be in line for modest draft compensation. As luxury tax payors, New York receives the lowest form of compensation for losing qualified free agents. They’d get compensatory picks after the fourth round if Manaea and/or Severino sign elsewhere. The prospect value of those picks is minimal, but it’d tack on a few hundred thousand dollars to next year’s amateur signing bonus pool.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Sean Manaea To Opt Out Of Mets Contract

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Left-hander Sean Manaea is planning to opt out of the second year of his contract with the Mets, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes (X link). Manaea signed a two-year, $28MM free agent deal with New York last winter that contained the player option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now leave $13.5MM on the table in search of a longer and more lucrative guarantee this offseason. He’s a virtual lock to receive a $21.05MM qualifying offer but is overwhelmingly likely to decline that in his pursuit of a longer-term pact.

Manaea’s decision comes as little surprise. The two-year pact he inked in Queens came in his second free agency foray. Since first reaching the open market on the heels of the 2022 season, he’s signed a pair of two-year contracts with opt-outs after year one, showing willingness to bet on himself and the confidence that he’ll eventually land a longer-term contract. Given the strength of his 2024 campaign, he’s now likely to find a guarantee of at least three years in free agency.

Entering the 2024 season, Manaea was viewed as something of a veteran stabilizer for the Mets’ rotation. New York’s president of baseball operations, David Stearns, made a series of short-term acquisitions in the rotation — Luis Severino also inked a one-year deal, and Adrian Houser was acquired from the Brewers — in an effort to patch things over in what most expected to be a transitional year for the Mets. Instead, the Amazins romped through the season’s final four months as the sport’s hottest team and rode that momentum all the way to the NLCS.

Manaea’s success was a huge part of that run. The 6’5″, 245-pound southpaw pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings in the regular season and worked to a sharp 3.47 ERA. He fanned one quarter of his opponents, issued walks at a solid 8.5% clip and deftly avoided home runs (1.04 HR/9). Solid as the year-long numbers were, it was the second half where Manaea truly took off. Manaea altered his throwing motion midseason — closely resembling the delivery of likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale — and at the suggestion of pitching coach Jeremy Hefner began a unique pregame workout wherein he throws to the opposite mound in the bullpen while warming (X link, with video, via Steve Gelbs of SNY).

The transformation was nearly immediate. Over the final two-plus months of the year, Manaea pitched to a 3.09 ERA with an improved 28.5% strikeout rate against a 6.2% walk rate. He ditched his cutter entirely and eventually ditched his four-seamer as well, all in the name of throwing more sinkers and sliders. Opponents had averaged 89.2 mph off the bat against him prior to the changes and posted a 40.8% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Down the stretch, those numbers plummeted to 87.5 mph and 32.4%, respectively. Manaea’s excellence carried on through three postseason starts, but he finally ran into a wall in the Mets’ final game of the year, surrendering five runs in just two innings in the decisive Game 6 loss to the eventual World Champion Dodgers.

In free agency, Manaea will market not only a career-high workload (200-plus innings, including the postseason) but also newly altered mechanics and a tweaked repertoire that led to his late-season surge. He’ll turn 33 in February, which will make anything longer than a four-year deal extraordinarily unlikely, but a three- or four-year pact at a strong annual value should be on the table. The Mets are in the market for multiple starting pitchers and will surely have interest in retaining the big lefty, but Manaea will command interest from a broad range of suitors. He’s one of the top starters on the market this time around, but his age will prevent him from landing the type of long-term deal from which many clubs shy away.

Stearns: Mets Need To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers

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The Mets had a good run in 2024 but came up just short of the final goal, getting eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLCS a few days ago. President of baseball operations David Stearns met with members of the media today to discuss the season that was and the offseason ahead, with SNYtv relaying the entire half-hour press conference on X.

Stearns discussed a number of topics but a major theme was the club’s high number of departing free agents. Each of Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker are Jose Iglesias headed to the open market, along with a number of relievers. Sean Manaea is also going to be added to that list eventually, once he officially declines his $13.5MM player option.

That leaves a lot of holes on the roster but also means a lot of money is coming off the books. The Mets also ate money in facilitating trades in previous years, sending out players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann. Those contracts are also expiring now, freeing up even more cash. RosterResource projects the Mets for about $161MM for next year’s roster, well below this year’s $336MM. A few non-tenders and Manaea opting out will widen that gap even farther.

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” Stearns said when asked about that subject. “It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”

Since Steve Cohen has purchased the club, the Mets have been one of the top clubs in terms of spending, often at the very top of payroll lists. Stearns was only hired a year ago and an unknown factor in the Mets’ future is how he will operate with that spending capacity, after spending most of his career with a lower-spending club in Milwaukee.

His first offseason running the Mets saw the club spread the money around to various players but without any long-term commitments. He signed nine players to one-year deals with Manaea the only player to get even a second season, and even that came with an opt-out after one year. That offseason came after a disappointing 2023 campaign that turned the Mets into sellers, which included the aforementioned Scherzer and Verlander deals, but still with lots of money tied up. What remains to be seen is if Stearns will now act differently on the heels of a more successful season and with much more powder dry.

“We also have to recognize,” Stearns continued, “that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you’re right. We have a lot of money coming off the books. I would expect us to spend some of that, a good portion of that, to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We’re also not going to do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core.”

Those comments could be interpreted in many ways. Even the highest payroll clubs want to spend their money as wisely as possible, which is naturally part of what he’s referencing here. While that could perhaps be a suggestion that the club will have some restraint with their new spending capacity, he also wouldn’t be doing himself any favors by coming out and baldly declaring that he was planning on spending his winter throwing money out the back of a train. Simply for leverage in contract talks, it makes sense for him to play his cards close to the vest when discussing plans like this.

Time will tell whether this offseason will see the Mets signing a bunch of superstars or making more measured additions, but Stearns didn’t shy away from the rotation question. As mentioned, the club is set to lose a bunch of players, including three starting pitchers in Manaea, Severino and Quintana. Each of those guys topped 170 innings in 2024, so the combined subtraction of that trio will be significant. Christian Scott also underwent UCL surgery in September and will likely miss all of 2025.

Next year’s rotation currently projects to include Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Senga missed most of 2024 due to various injuries while Peterson and Megill are a tier below fully established starters, as the Mets have moved each to the minors or the bullpen on occasion. Stearns was asked about Peterson, Megill and José Buttó but wouldn’t commit on whether any of those guys would be more likely to be in the rotation or bullpen in 2025. The club can retain Paul Blackburn via arbitration but he has battled multiple injuries in his career and recently underwent a spinal procedure that’s going to take months to recover from, which could lead to a non-tender.

“We faced a similar task last offseason. We’re going to have to replace innings,” Stearns said when asked about the rotation. “Certainly, part of that could potentially be from some of those guys returning or we may look elsewhere. But we’re going to have to add starting pitching. We’re going to have to add multiple starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we’ll be able to do it.”

Last winter, the rotation was without Verlander and Scherzer after those trades while Carlos Carrasco had also become a free agent. As mentioned, Stearns gave a one-year deal to Severino while Manaea got two years with an opt-out, and the club also acquired Adrian Houser from Milwaukee.

The Severino and Manaea deals both worked out well, which is why Manaea is now slated to opt-out and is also likely to receive a qualifying offer. Severino could get one as well but is perhaps more of a borderline case, as explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday.

The Mets could look to bring those guys back, as Stearns said, but the market will have other options. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty will be the top free agents this winter and could command nine-figure deals. Stearns never spent on pitching in that way with the Brewers but was also working with far less spending capacity. He continued to invest somewhat modestly last winter but perhaps could pivot now that the Mets are in a different position than they were a year ago.

If he and the Mets prefer to stick to a lower level of free agency, Manaea, Severino and Quintana will be there alongside guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and others. Despite all the available payroll space, Stearns said he still planned to explore the trade market, which would be another path to upgrading the rotation. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell and just some of the names that could speculatively available in that space.

Along somewhat similar lines, there is the Pete Alonso question. Stearns never spent big money on first basemen during his time in Milwaukee, with the three-year, $15MM deal for Eric Thames being his largest investment in that position. Alonso will certainly command more than that and reportedly already turned down an extension offer of $158MM from the Mets in June of 2023, before Stearns was hired.

The merits of spending that kind of money on a first baseman whose contributions are mostly in the power department can be debated, but Alonso is also a franchise icon at this point, thanks to his homegrown status as well as his crowd-pleasing performances in home run derbies and playoff games. Stearns said the club would love to have the Polar Bear back but that Alonso deserves to explore the free agent market.

“All of that is important,” Stearns said, when asked about weighing Alonso as a player but also as a staple of the franchise. “Who Pete is as a person is important. What he means to this franchise is important. Who he is as a player is also important and what he contributes on the field. There’s no magic formula to this. There’s no equation that spits out what all of that is for us. And so, there’s judgment involved. There’s evaluating the market involved. And we’ll see how this process goes throughout the offseason.”

Stearns was also asked about hiring a general manager, which he didn’t seem in a rush to do. Billy Eppler was going to work in that role under Stearns until he stepped down a year ago after it was revealed he was under investigation for the club misusing the injured list. Stearns said he is happy with the current front office makeup and doesn’t plan to do any kind of GM search, though he would consider making a hire if someone intriguing became available.

There’s still plenty to be determined in exactly how the Mets will operate this winter, but given the number of openings on the roster and the club’s spending capacity, it doesn’t seem like anything is off the table at this point.

Mets Notes: JDM, Quintana, Manaea

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A season filled with OMGs and Grimace memes came to an end this weekend when the Dodgers toppled the Mets in a 10-5 win that propelled L.A. to a World Series showdown and left the Mets looking ahead to the 2025 campaign. New York’s roster is teeming with veteran free agents, and president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff will have their work cut out for them in reshaping the roster this offseason. Several outgoing Mets free agents made clear they’d have interest in returning, including some aging vets who are getting into the latter stages of their career.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez joked “pickleball” when asked what the future held for him (video link via SNY). The 37-year-old slugger said first and foremost, his future includes heading home to be with his new daughter, who he has barely seen since she was born in September. Beyond the family time, Martinez made clear that he hopes to continue his playing career but only if teams take the initiative. “I’m not going to come back because I’m begging to come back,” said Martinez. “I’m going to come back because it makes sense. At the end of the day, time is the most valuable thing.”

Presumably, that means there’s a price point at which Martinez won’t feel compelled to commit to further time away from his growing young family. But the slugger also recently appeared on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast and told host Rob Bradford that frustration over a general lack of interest last offseason led him to ponder retirement.

“I felt like it was just an awkward year,” said Martinez (video link). “Here I am, the team’s breaking in five days, and I don’t even have a team yet. Your brain goes into a weird mode, where you’re like ’Am I playing? Am I not? Am I playing? Am I not? Is this it? Am I retired? … We weren’t asking for anything that, at the time, I feel like other players hadn’t gotten.”

Martinez went on to say that he waited all offseason for offers to materialize and “100%” considered retiring, even telling his best friend: “I think this it. I’m staying home. This is dumb. I’m begging for a job, and I had a .900 OPS last year.”

Heading into the 2024-25 offseason, Martinez won’t be coming off the same type of campaign he enjoyed with the Dodgers in 2023. During his lone year in L.A., he bashed 33 homers and hit .271/.321/.572 in 479 plate appearances. Martinez was still a clearly above-average bat this past season, but a sluggish start after signing late (March 23) and a dismal finish to the season left him with a .235/.320/.406 batting line. That was about eight percent better than average, by measure of wRC+ (108).

An optimist could toss out a slow two weeks to start the season and overlook that finish to see that from mid-May through late August, Martinez hit .251/.336/.459 with 16 homers in 387 plate appearances, but teams won’t be so charitable as to just write those struggles off and focus only on his peak in-season production. Martinez did note that he’s encouraged by his batted-ball metrics even though the ultimate production wasn’t in line with his best work, and to his credit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He also cut back on his career-worst 2023 strikeout rate and improved his walk rate to its highest level since 2019.

Teammate Jose Quintana was more direct and more straightforward in his intentions to return next year. The 35-year-old lefty told reporters (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers): “I’m healthy. I feel good. I want to try one more time to win a championship. This was the closest I’ve been in my career. One day I’m going to get the opportunity.”

Quintana, 36 in January, pitched 170 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball for the Mets in 2024 — the second season of a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate don’t necessarily support that level of success, but Quintana was a reliable source of innings and has a lengthy track record of quality rotation work in the majors. Starting pitching is always in demand, and he has a good chance at commanding another eight-figure salary on a one-year deal — if not potential to find a similar two-year deal to the one he just completed.

Age considerations aren’t as prominent for 32-year-old Sean Manaea, who’s all but a lock to decline a $13.5MM player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Manaea has signed back-to-back “prove it” deals, so to speak, signing consecutive two-year deals with opt-out opportunities. He opted out of his deal with the Giants following the 2023 season, will opt out of his Mets deal next month, and is now finally in position to command the type of lengthier multi-year deal that’s eluded him to this point in free agency. The Mets will very likely make him a qualifying offer, but even with draft compensation attached to his name, Manaea could command a three-year pact this time around.

The left-hander pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings, plus another 19 in the postseason. His regular season ended with a 3.47 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He was hit hard in his final start — the one that ended the Mets’ season — but held opponents to five runs in 17 innings across his first three postseason starts (2.65 ERA).

Time will tell whether Manaea is back in New York, but the southpaw emphasized how much he loved his time with the organization and called the 2024 campaign the best season of his career (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “I love my time here,” said Manaea. “I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here. Definitely give it a couple of days, let the body rest and then we’ll go from there.”

In addition to the trio of Martinez, Manaea and Quintana, the Mets will also see Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias, Drew Smith and Ryne Stanek all become free agents after the World Series.

Sean Manaea Expected To Opt Out Of Mets Deal In Offseason

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Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year deals with opt-out provisions in each of the past two offseasons and is poised to reenter the market for a third straight winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will opt out of the second year and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unforeseen circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his recent pair of short-term deals, noting that he’d certainly consider a longer-term pact but unlike many other players doesn’t mind the short-term, opt-out-laden route.

“I like to think it’s fun because it’s a new adventure,” Manaea told Nightengale. “I mean, it’s a little nerve-wracking when you’re not with a team most of the offseason, but it’s all part of the adventure.”

Manaea, 33 in February, is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s started  27 games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a sharp 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. After favoring his four-seamer over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his primary offering, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the increased usage of his slider (26%) at the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — while still throwing occasional  four-seamers and cutters.

The new pitch blend has proven largely effective. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s nearly a career-high strikeout rate and only issuing walks at a slightly above-average clip. He’s kept the ball in the yard (0.96 HR/9) and done a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.8 mph average exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit rate). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), but his opponents are making contact on those swings at the second-lowest rate of Manaea’s career (53.4%).

Manaea has long seemed capable of putting together this type of season. He regularly posts better-than-average walk rates and average or better strikeout rates. He was in the consideration to go in the top 10 selections of the 2013 draft but slipped to the No. 34 pick by the Royals due to a hip injury. That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign.

Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a durable source of innings. He started a nearly full slate of 11 games in the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 games per season. The Giants frequently used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, hence that year’s 27 relief outings, but he still pitched 117 2/3 frames that year. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured list since returning from that 2018 shoulder procedure.

Given how well he’s pitched for much of the season, it’s hardly surprising that Manaea is intent on once again exploring free agency. A guaranteed multi-year deal should be there this time around, unless Manaea has come to enjoy the mercenary life and having say over his team on a yearly basis. Because he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is likely the ceiling, and three years seems more reasonable to expect. Even if Manaea “only” secures a two-year guarantee, he’d almost certainly do so while signing for an annual value higher than the $13.5MM under his current contract.

The more interesting question surrounding Manaea will be one of the qualifying offer. The Mets can extend a QO to Manaea if he declines his player option, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft pick if Manaea signs elsewhere. They’d need to be comfortable paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this year’s QO, however.

On its surface, that’s a drop in the bucket for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets. But the Mets have paid the luxury tax every season under Steve Cohen’s ownership, falling into the top tier of penalty in the past two seasons. RosterResource projects them for a $171MM figure next year that’s well below the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, but the Mets could see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free agency. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it won’t take much to push them right back up into luxury territory.

If the Mets return to the top tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be among Juan Soto’s suitors and will presumably pursue other high-end targets, particularly in the rotation — that would mean a 110% tax on that salary. That’d be a total of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even if they’re in a lower tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would still put Manaea’s total expenditure on a QO in the $34-41MM range. And, as a luxury-paying team, the Mets would only receive a comp pick after the fourth round in the event that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and huge tax bill might allow Manaea to hit the market without the burden of draft compensation, which would only further strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a strong season.

The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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