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Guardians Release Scott Barlow, Outright Anthony Gose

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The Guardians released veteran right-hander Scott Barlow and outrighted lefty Anthony Gose to Triple-A Columbus, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Cleveland had designated both relievers for assignment in recent days. The Guardians announced that Gose accepted his assignment. He can be selected back to the big league roster whenever the team needs a fresh arm, and Barlow’s release creates an opening to do so rather easily.

Barlow pitched in 63 games for the Guardians this year. Cleveland acquired the right-hander in an offseason swap that sent Enyel De Los Santos to the Padres. It was a rare trade in which the Guardians took on a fairly significant salary — he ultimately settled on a $6.7MM deal for his final year of arbitration — to add the more established player. Barlow had been the Royals’ closer in recent seasons and worked in high-leverage spots with San Diego in the second half of last year.

That track record initially earned him important innings with Cleveland. Barlow had pitched fairly well through the season’s first few months. A tough second half had increasingly pushed him down the leverage hierarchy for skipper Stephen Vogt, however. Barlow has allowed nearly six earned runs per nine with a diminished 18.9% strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. He had fanned more than 32% of batters faced with a 3.52 ERA in 38 1/3 innings during the season’s first half.

Barlow’s overall numbers are passable. He has a 4.25 ERA with an above-average 28.2% strikeout percentage and a grounder rate above 47%. His 12.9% walk rate is high but not dramatically above last season’s 11.4% mark. The late-season dip in performance was concerning, though, and that’s especially true considering Barlow’s velocity. He had averaged 95 MPH on his fastball and 84-85 on his slider during his best seasons with Kansas City. Those respective marks dipped to 93 and 83 last year and are down further this season. Barlow’s slider has checked in around 81 MPH all year. His fastball had dipped to the 90-91 range in the last couple months.

The Guardians remain on the hook for the final few weeks of Barlow’s salary. He surpassed six years of major league service this season and would have been a free agent during the upcoming offseason in any case. Barlow could try to sign with another contender for the final couple weeks of the regular season, but he would not be eligible for postseason play. He may choose to look ahead to next offseason. Barlow could still find a big league deal going into 2025, though he’s unlikely to land the multi-year contract that seemed it’d be on the table a couple months ago.

As for Gose, an outright was the expected outcome after Cleveland designated him for assignment for the fourth time in the last month. The southpaw had the right to elect free agency but is clearly comfortable with the organization, as he either accepted an outright or re-signed on a minor league deal shortly after each of his previous DFAs. Gose has made three MLB appearances this season, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings. He carries a 3.27 ERA with huge strikeout (32.8%) and walk (14.7%) rates over 41 1/3 frames with Columbus.

Guardians Designate Scott Barlow For Assignment

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The Guardians have designated right-hander Scott Barlow for assignment, according to MLB.com’s Transactions Tracker. Taking his spot on the 40-man and active rosters will be left-hander Anthony Gose, whose contract was selected according to Gose’s MLB.com Player Page.

Barlow, 31, was acquired by the Guardians in a trade with the Padres last November that sent right-hander Enyel De Los Santos to San Diego. A longtime Royals relief arm who emerged as the club’s top leverage arm during the 2021 season, Barlow pitched to an excellent 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 148 2/3 innings between 2021 and ’22 while striking out 28.2% of batters faced and racking up 40 saves.

Unfortunately, he took a step back in 2023 with a somewhat uneven season. While his numbers under the hood during his time with the Royals last year, including a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.04 SIERA, offered plenty of reason for optimism, he struggled in terms of preventing runs and ultimately surrendered a 5.35 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work before being shipped to the Padres at the trade deadline. Once in uniform with San Diego, Barlow pitched much better down the stretch with a 3.07 ERA and 3.15 FIP in his final 29 1/3 innings last year. That seemed to leave Barlow poised to occupy a key role with the Padres in the late innings this year, but he was ultimately shipped to the Guardians as part of an effort to slash the club’s payroll and duck under the luxury tax for 2024.

That allowed the Guardians step in and take the opportunity to add Barlow to their already excellent bullpen, where he was poised to act as one of the top setup men for closer Emmanuel Clase. For much of the season, the right-hander performed that role admirably with a 3.12 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 43 1/3 innings of work through the end of July. Things took a sharp turn for the worse once the calendar flipped to August, however, and Barlow was shelled to the tune of an 8.49 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has seemed lost on the mound for over a month now, with a 17.9% strikeout rate against a 10.7% walk rate to go along with three hit batters and two home runs over his last 13 appearances. As the Guardians look to fend off the Royals and Twins in the AL Central and earn a bye through the Wild Card Series this October, the club evidently felt they couldn’t afford to continue giving the righty opportunities to get right.

Barlow’s departure makes way for Gose, 34, on the big league roster. Once a top-100 prospect as a hitter with the Phillies, he struggled through five seasons in the majors with a below average .240/.309/.348 slash line in 372 career games and eventually decided to try converting to pitching. He resurfaced in the big leagues as a reliever in Cleveland back in 2021, impressing with a six-appearance cup of coffee that saw him strike out 37.5% of opponents and post a 1.35 ERA. Gose sported a respectable 3.90 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 27 2/3 innings of work as pitcher for his career when he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2022, and he spent the entire 2023 season rehabbing.

Now back in action with the Guardians, Gose surrendered three runs in 3 1/3 innings of work during a brief cup of coffee earlier this year but has posted a solid 3.27 ERA in 41 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level. He’ll get another opportunity with the big league club down the stretch as he looks to establish himself as a viable relief option for the 2025 campaign, whether that’s with Cleveland or elsewhere.

The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians, Padres Swap Scott Barlow, Enyel De Los Santos

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The Guardians announced they’ve acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Padres. Fellow reliever Enyel De Los Santos is back to San Diego in a one-for-one swap. Cleveland also announced they’ve signed outfielder Ramón Laureano to a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. Zack Meisel of the Athletic reports (on X) that Laureano will make $5.15MM next season.

Barlow has spent the majority of his career in the AL Central. The right-hander reached the big leagues with the Royals in 2018. He logged five and a half seasons in Kansas City, where he was one of the game’s more quietly effective bullpen arms. Barlow turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over 74 1/3 innings in consecutive seasons from 2021-22. That excellent run prevention took a step back this year, as he carried a 5.35 mark through 38 2/3 frames at the time of the trade deadline.

The Royals swapped Barlow to San Diego last summer. While he’d been working as Kansas City’s closer, he stepped into a setup role in deference to Josh Hader at Petco Park. Barlow made 25 appearances for the Friars down the stretch, pitching to a 3.07 ERA. While Barlow was effective, he became a trade candidate yet again as rumors of payroll constraints in San Diego arose.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Barlow for a $7.1MM salary in what’ll be his final year of arbitration control. While that’s decent value for an effective reliever, the Padres are reportedly aiming to cut spending (potentially by as much as $50MM). Moving a non-closing reliever is one of the less impactful ways for San Diego to clear spending room, although it’s another hit to a bullpen that also stands to lose Hader to free agency.

It’s rare for the low-payroll Guardians to find themselves on this side of a trade of that nature. Cleveland tends to deal away players as they’re nearing free agency. The Guards jumped on the opportunity to add a high-quality reliever to join Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges as a leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase.

To offset the loss of Barlow, San Diego brings back a more affordable short-term bullpen piece. De Los Santos had a nice 2023 campaign, pitching 70 times and working to a 3.29 ERA through 65 2/3 innings. The righty, 28 next month, had an average 23.7% strikeout rate and walked 9.5% of opposing hitters.

It was his second straight year with an ERA in the low 3.00s. Since signing a minor league deal over the 2021-22 offseason, he has turned in a 3.18 ERA over 119 frames. De Los Santos worked in mostly low-leverage situations but had pitched his way into the middle innings during his second season in Terry Francona’s bullpen.

De los Santos, who spent some time in the Padres system early in his minor league career, has between three and four years of MLB service. He will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. Swartz forecasts him for an affordable $1.2MM this winter, meaning the deal should save San Diego roughly $6MM in the short term.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Exploring Scott Barlow Trades

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The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1MM in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.

Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old entirely if they can’t find an acceptable trade.  While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200MM range in 2024, down from $249MM last season.  The $7.1MM price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.

This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22.  Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers.  It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.

Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%.  The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason.  The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.

All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate.  Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4mph in 2021 to 93.1mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons.  Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.

If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen.  Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work.  The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.

Padres Acquire Scott Barlow

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The Padres acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams, according to a team announcement.  The Friars also designated infielder Brandon Dixon for assignment to clear a spot for Barlow.

Barlow, 30, owns a 5.35 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, and 45.2% groundball rate this year in 38 2/3 innings.  He’s saved 13 games for the Royals along the way.

The Dodgers drafted Barlow in the sixth round out of high school back in 2011.  He signed a split free agent contract with the Royals way back in December 2017.  Barlow started to find his footing in the Royals’ bullpen in the shortened 2020 season, working his way into a closer role the following year.

Barlow has had a couple of trips through arbitration, and decent save totals have led to a $5.3MM salary this year.  Barlow competed with Aroldis Chapman for the Royals’ late-inning work earlier this summer, though Chapman was traded to the Rangers in late June.

Since June 10th, Barlow has an 8.04 ERA, 17.0 K%, and 13.4 BB% in 15 2/3 innings, causing him to fall out of favor with manager Matt Quatraro.  Carlos Hernandez and others have leapfrogged Barlow on the depth chart, and now he’ll get a chance for a fresh start in San Diego.  Barlow can be controlled for 2024 through the arbitration process, but he’ll have to bounce back for the Padres to get tendered a contract.

Josh Hader continues to pitch well atop the Padres’ bullpen, and Robert Suarez made his season debut on July 21st after recovering from an elbow injury.  Nick Martinez and Steven Wilson have been key pieces as well.

Barlow is an aggressive pickup for a Padres team that enters play tonight five games out of the wild card.  The club entered the day with an estimated luxury tax payroll above $280MM, meaning they are in the 95% tax bracket.  FanGraphs still gives the Padres playoff odds of about 35%, and they also added Garrett Cooper, Rich Hill, and Ji Man Choi today.  Padres GM A.J. Preller chose to supplement his club with veterans, rather than cash in impending free agents such as Blake Snell and Hader.

As for the Royals’ return, Williams is a 21-year-old righty starting pitcher who was drafted in the third round out of Duke last year and signed for an above-slot $800K while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  The 6’5″ starter has struggled thus far in 12 Low-A ball starts, but before the season he was seen as a 45 or 50 grade prospect with a three-pitch mix and mid-rotation upside.

Rios, 21, has worked as a reliever this year in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League.  He’s posted a 6.38 ERA in 18 1/3 innings.

Dixon, 31, saw most of his big league time with the Reds and Tigers in 2018-19.  He spent 2021 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles and returned stateside on a minor league deal with the Padres.  He’s been up and down from the Major League club this year, picking up 86 plate appearances in 33 games.

Mark Feinsand was first to report the Padres’ acquisition of Barlow. 

Royals Fielding Offers On Several Veterans

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The Royals have been talking to other clubs about potential trades involving veteran pitchers Scott Barlow, Taylor Clarke and Ryan Yarbrough, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Outfielder Edward Olivares has also been discussed in potential deals.

Of the bunch, Barlow is the most obvious and straightforward trade candidate. The 30-year-old righty thrived as the primary closer in Kansas City from 2021-22, pitching 148 2/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball with 40 saves, a hefty 28.2% strikeout rate and a solid 8.4% walk rate. The 2023 season has been far more troublesome. Barlow’s average fastball sat at 95.3 mph in ’21 but has dipped to 92.9 mph this season. His walk rate has also spiked, and the right-hander’s 5.35 ERA is a career-worst mark.

That said, Barlow still figures to hold appeal to other clubs. Dip in velocity notwithstanding, he still has well above-average strikeout (26.2%), swinging-strike (12.6%) and opponents chase (37.6%) rates. His $5.3MM salary is generally affordable, and Barlow is controllable through 2024 via arbitration. This year’s struggles are at least in part due to a .340 average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate, both worse-than-average marks which should eventually trend toward his career marks of .306 and 76.1%. Barlow had a solid 3.97 ERA as recently as July 16, but he’s been tagged for eight runs through 4 2/3 innings over his past five outings.

Clarke, also 30, has a shorter track record and more pronounced struggles in 2023. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings this year, thanks to a particularly dreadful slump dating back to mid-June. Clarke had a 2.70 ERA through his first 30 innings but has been tattooed for 22 runs in his past 15 innings. A season-long .374 BABIP isn’t helping his cause, but that alone doesn’t explain the extent of the right-hander’s struggles. From 2020-22, he pitched to a respectable, if unspectacular 4.44 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates.

The 31-year-old Yarbrough inked a one-year deal with Kansas City after spending his entire big league career with the Rays organization. He’s earning $3MM this season and, although he missed time after a frightening incident where he was struck by a comebacker, the lefty has been decent when on the field. In 51 innings — seven starts, seven relief outings — he’s posted a 4.24 ERA. Yarbrough has one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (13.7%) but also one of the lowest walk rates (4.2%) among pitchers with at least 50 innings.

While Yarbrough started the season in Kansas City’s bullpen, he moved into the rotation not long before his injury and has continued starting since returning in early July. He’s made four starts since coming off the IL, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings. He’s a pure rental and could help round out the back of someone’s rotation in the season’s final two months.

Olivares, 27, came to the Royals from the Padres organization in the 2020 trade that sent Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego. He looked solid at the plate in 2022 when he hit .286/.333/.410 with four homers, eight doubles and a pair of steals in 174 trips to the plate. His 2023 output has taken a step back. He’s logged a career-high 274 plate appearances but turned in a tepid .246/.299/.409 batting line.

The right-handed-hitting Olivares has even platoon splits this year but has generally been better against righties than lefties, when looking at his career as a whole. He’s played all three outfield spots in his career but has primarily worked in the corners; he doesn’t have above-average grades at any of the three positions, though. Olivares would be controllable for three more years beyond the current season, but he hasn’t developed as the Royals had hoped and is more of a change-of-scenery candidate than someone who’d fetch them meaningful prospect depth.

Royals Listening To Trade Offers On Scott Barlow

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The Royals are listening to trade offers on reliever Scott Barlow, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It doesn’t appear as though they are actively shopping him but it’s noteworthy that they seem open to considering trade scenarios.

There are several reasons why a deal would make plenty of sense, one of which is the performance of the Royals this year. The club is out to a dismal 17-39 start, a record worse than every club in the majors except for the Athletics. They’re already 16 games out of the Wild Card race and 12.5 back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. That makes them one of the few obvious sellers with the expanded postseason making most clubs at least marginal contenders.

Then there’s Barlow himself, who has been serving as an effective reliever in Kansas City for the past few years. Since debuting in 2018, he’s made 259 appearances with a 3.16 ERA, 29% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. He has kept earned runs off the board at an even better rate in recent years, as he had a 2.42 ERA in 2021 and a tiny 2.18 mark last year. His ERA has jumped to 3.86 here in 2023 but his 3.34 FIP is actually lower than his 3.62 from last year. He has bumped his strikeout rate from 26.6% in 2022 to 33.7% this year but his walks also jumped from 7.6% to 12.8%. All of that has come with increased leverage work, as he racked up a combined 40 saves over 2021 and 2022 and six more so far this year.

Barlow, 30, wouldn’t be a pure rental since this is his second of three arbitration seasons, meaning he can still be retained for 2024. That means the Royals don’t strictly have to trade him, as they could decide to keep him around and hope for better results next year. Even if the club didn’t return to contention, there would be another opportunity to trade him at next year’s deadline, though he would have less value when being marketed for one postseason run instead of two. Relievers are often prone to fluctuations in performance, not to mention the ever-present injury risk with all pitchers. If they were to hold onto him, they would run the risk of a dip in performance or an injury diminishing his trade value even further. Taking that into consideration, there would certainly be an argument for pulling the trigger now.

There’s also the fact that just about every contending club could fit another reliever or two into their bullpens, especially one as talented as Barlow, meaning the Royals would have no shortage of suitors. The righty is making an affordable $5.3MM this year and would be in line for a raise next year. They still have a couple of months before the August 1 trade deadline to suss out his market, but Barlow looks like one of the clearer trade candidates this summer.

Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

Royals Looking To Acquire Right-Handed Bat, Open To Dealing From MLB Roster To Clear Payroll Space

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The Royals are interested in adding an experienced right-handed hitter this offseason, general manager J.J. Picollo tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The first-year baseball ops leader suggested the team’s defensive flexibility afforded them the ability to scour the market at multiple positions.

“The nice thing is, we have a lot of flexibility with the positional guys. A lot of guys that can play a lot of different positions. It doesn’t pigeonhole us into saying, ‘We need to go get this position,’” Picollo told Rogers. “I think we’re thinking more right-handed bat more so than left-handed. But we want the ability to match up and have the depth on our bench that allows us to make moves late in games.”

Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. locked in at shortstop, while Vinnie Pasquantino broke out to seize the first base job. Franchise icon Salvador Perez is locked in behind the plate, and Rogers writes that former top catching prospect MJ Melendez looks as if he’ll be the primary left fielder. Michael A. Taylor is under contract and the in-house favorite for playing time in center field, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kansas City floats him in trade talks considering how shallow the free agent market at the position is.

The rest of the position player group is a bit up in the air. Second and third base were primarily manned by rookies Michael Massey and Nate Eaton down the stretch. Both played reasonably well in their first exposure to big league pitching, and Picollo suggested Massey in particular looks as if he’ll get the first crack at the second base job. Nicky Lopez is on hand as a potential second base alternative, while Adalberto Mondesi is controllable for his final season of arbitration but coming off a season mostly lost to an ACL tear. Mondesi looks like a viable non-tender candidate with a projected $3MM salary, but Picollo indicated the club could bring him back as a multi-positional option off the bench.

That leaves third base and right field — where none of Drew Waters, Hunter Dozier, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel looks like a slam-dunk everyday player — as areas for a possible upgrade. Picollo noted that an experienced, veteran player would be ideal to help out in a younger clubhouse. Speculatively speaking, Evan Longoria and Justin Turner, each of whom were bought out of club options today, could fit the bill as third base/designated hitter options. In the corner outfield, players like Mitch Haniger, Adam Duvall, Andrew McCutchen and former Royal Wil Myers are available. Haniger would be the costliest of that group, while the latter trio are likely all available on one-year deals.

On the matter of payroll, Picollo tells Rogers next year’s player spending is likely to be similar to 2022 levels. Kansas City opened this year with a payroll around $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Recourse projects their 2023 spending at just under $77MM, seemingly leaving some room for Picollo and his staff to augment the roster. Nevertheless, the GM tells Rogers they could consider moving some players off the big league club to free up spending capacity.

“We’re operating right now near capacity with what we want to spend, but that’s where we need to be open-minded in how we can manage and free up some money to change the look of the team a little bit,” Picollo said. “[Owner John Sherman] has told me, ‘Let’s understand where we are as a team right now, and when the time is right for us to add to the payroll, we’ll do that.’ It’s going to ebb and flow a little bit, but with where we’re at as a team right now, adding an extra $20MM isn’t going to put us at the top. There are other things we need to take care of first before we make that push with the payroll.”

Aside from Mondesi and Taylor, that probably leaves starter Brad Keller ($7MM projected salary) and relievers Scott Barlow ($4.9MM projection) and Amir Garrett ($2.6MM projection) as candidates to change uniforms. Keller and Garrett could be non-tender candidates after tough years, but Barlow would be an in-demand entrant to the reliever trade market if Kansas City shopped him. Controllable through 2024, the right-hander is coming off 74 1/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball with a 26.6% strikeout rate. Barlow has quietly been one of the game’s best relievers two years running, and dealing him could free up K.C. to address a rather thin starting rotation and/or land the righty bat they’re seeking. Picollo didn’t say dealing Barlow was under consideration this offseason, to be clear, but the closer did draw trade interest at this past summer’s deadline.

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