Braves catcher Sean Murphy has a cracked rib on the left side of his ribcage and will be out for the next four to six weeks, manager Brian Snitker announced this morning (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He sustained the injury when he was hit by a pitch during a Grapefruit League game this past Friday.
The injury opens the door for top prospect Drake Baldwin to potentially make his big league debut on Opening Day, though Baldwin is not yet on the 40-man roster and will likely still need to earn the job with a nice showing in camp. Since Atlanta surprisingly declined Travis d’Arnaud’s option at the start of the offseason and let him walk in free agency, the other in-house options include Chadwick Tromp (who’s on the 40-man roster) and veteran non-roster invitees Curt Casali and Sandy Leon.
Murphy, 30, is entering his third season with the Braves and will miss the beginning of the season for a second consecutive year. An oblique strain suffered on Opening Day last year sent Murphy to the injured list on March 30 and sidelined him into late May. That was the first major league IL placement of Murphy’s career, but with the season set to open in just over three weeks, he’ll all but assuredly start the 2025 campaign with his second career IL stay.
The 2024 season was the worst of Murphy’s career. It clearly didn’t start on a high note with that early oblique injury, but upon activation from the injured list he didn’t hit anywhere near his prior standards, slashing just .193/.284/.352 in 264 plate appearances. He still smacked 10 homers and graded as a strong defender, but Murphy’s strikeout rate climbed to its highest point since 2021 (25.4%).
More damaging was a huge spike in both Murphy’s ground-ball rate (career-high 53.9%) and infield fly rate. Among the 324 players who tallied 250 plate appearances in 2024, only 12 hit a higher rate of grounders than Murphy. For a player ranked in the eighth percentile in Statcast’s average sprint speed, that’s clearly suboptimal. Beyond the influx of ground-balls, roughly one in six of Murphy’s fly-balls was a hapless pop-up to the infield. He entered the 2024 season with only 9% of his flies being of the infield variety (and just 3.8% in 2023).
Murphy’s struggles really date back to September of 2023. The first five months of his Braves tenure could scarcely have gone better. He slashed .271/.379/.520 with 20 homers in 383 plate appearances, making the All-Star team and looking every bit like the star catcher Atlanta envisioned when trading for and extending him. Murphy hit just .111/.273/.178 in 55 September plate appearances in ’23, but given his track record that seemed like little more than a late slump.
Perhaps that was indeed the case, but with Murphy’s rough 2024 season now tacked onto that poor finish the year prior, he’s running a pretty lengthy stretch of struggles at the plate. In his past 329 plate appearances — including ten in the playoffs — he’s lugging a .181/.280/.319 batting line.
Of course, any talk of Murphy’s recent struggles should mention that they’re short-lived relative to his longstanding all-around production. From the time of his 2019 debut through August 2023, Murphy hit .237/.333/.434 with premium defense. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% better than an average hitter at the plate, which is even more impressive for his position, as the average catcher in that span tended to be around 12% worse than average with the bat. From 2019-23, Murphy ranked third among all catchers in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, trailing only J.T. Realmuto and (much more narrowly) Will Smith.
He’ll look to get back on track once he’s past this rib injury, but Murphy’s looming IL stint does give the aforementioned Baldwin an opportunity at his MLB debut. The 23-year-old is widely considered among the sport’s top 100 prospects. Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2022 split the 2024 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .276/.370/.423 with 16 homers, a 13.1% walk rate and a 17.2% strikeout rate. He’s not considered the super-premium defender that Murphy is, but scouting reports have credited him with improving defense. Baseball America credits his ability to manage a pitching staff as a particular plus element of his defensive game.
The Braves aren’t going to want to have Baldwin up on the big league roster without regular at-bats available to him. It’s possible that he hits well enough this spring to break camp and then forces the issue further by getting out to a hot start in the majors. In that scenario, perhaps Murphy and Baldwin could shoulder a roughly even split of the workload behind the plate. That’d keep both fresh and would mirror many other catching situations around the league, as several clubs have moved away from one iron man catcher and a seldom-used backup (as was more common in prior generations). If Baldwin struggles, though, he could always be sent to Triple-A for further development. He’s still less than three years from being drafted, after all, and has all of 141 games above A-ball under his belt.
The Braves have Murphy signed at $15MM per season through 2028, plus a club option over the former All-Star’s 2029 campaign. Baldwin has yet to debut, meaning he has six years of club control — or nearly seven, if the team keeps him in the minors for more than a couple of weeks in 2025 but bring him to the majors for the remainder of the year.