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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/22/24

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

  • The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
  • The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
  • The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
  • The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
  • The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
  • The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
  • The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
  • Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
  • The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
  • The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
  • The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
  • The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
  • The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
  • The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

Sam Hentges Out 12 To 14 Months Due To Shoulder Surgery

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Guardians left-hander Sam Hentges will undergo shoulder surgery next week, the team announced. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will repair both the labrum and capsule in Hentges’ left shoulder, and the recovery period is expected to be in the range of 12 to 14 months. In all likelihood, the procedure will keep Hentges out of action not only for the balance of the 2024 season but also the entirety of the 2025 campaign. Hentges has been out since July 10 with what was originally termed inflammation in his left shoulder.

It’s an awful blow for the Guardians and the 28-year-old Hentges alike. The former fourth-round pick had a rough debut campaign as a starter in 2021 but has thrived as a reliever across the past three seasons. Dating back to 2022, Hentges boasts a terrific 2.93 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 58.1% grounder rate and just 0.52 HR/9. Metrics like FIP (2.66) and SIERA (2.93) feel he’s been as good or perhaps even better than that more rudimentary earned run average would indicate.

As Hentges broke out as a quality reliever, the Guardians increasingly trusted him in higher-leverage spots. Former manager Terry Francona and (to a lesser extent) rookie skipper Stephen Vogt wound up trusting Hentges in a pivotal setup role to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He’s picked up 32 holds and one save over the past three years and been remarkably effective while pitching in those pressure-packed spots; Hentges only has one blown save in those 34 save situations into which he’s been placed.

Hentges and the Guardians agreed to a one-year, $1.1625MM deal this season in his first trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. He’s controllable for another three seasons but would be owed a small raise in arbitration next year after pitching 23 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball and collecting nine holds this season. He’d then likely be owed that same salary for the 2026 season. Since he can be controlled through 2027, it’s likely the Guards will still tender him a contract and be content to pay him around $3MM combined for the 2025-26 seasons even though he won’t pitch in the former.

Guardians Place Alex Cobb On Injured List

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The Guardians announced that right-hander Alex Cobb has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a fractured nail on his right hand. Left-hander Anthony Gose was selected to take his roster spot. Lefty Sam Hentges was transferred to the 60-day IL in order to open a 40-man spot for Gose.

Cobb, 36, has dealt with his share of challenges over the past year. While with the Giants last season, he finished the campaign on the IL due to left hip inflammation. He underwent surgery on that hip in October, which was going to put him on the shelf to start 2024, but it was hoped that he could be back some time in May. The Giants seemed to have some belief in that timeline, as they picked up a $10MM club option for this year.

As he was ramping things up in March, it seemed he had a chance to beat that projection and come back earlier than expected, but then he hit some snags. Right shoulder inflammation delayed his return and he was transferred to the 60-day IL in mid-April. Even at that point, it was still hoped that a late May return was possible, but his throwing program was shut down in the middle of May due to discomfort in that shoulder.

He was able to get back on the mound and start a rehab assignment on June 30 but was traded to the Guardians a month later, just ahead of the deadline. The Giants had strengthened their rotation by welcoming Robbie Ray and Blake Snell off the IL, while getting encouraging results from rookies Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong.

The Guardians, meanwhile, had far less stability in their rotation. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery in April and is done for the year. Gavin Williams missed the first half of the season due to right elbow inflammation and has posted a 5.02 earned run average since being activated. Guys like Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco have also posted ERAs north of 5.00 this year. Carrasco is now on the IL with a strained hip while McKenzie and Allen have been optioned.

Getting a veteran like Cobb was therefore a sensible move but he’s now back on the IL after just two starts. The club hasn’t yet provided any information about what kind of absence they expect but it’s less than ideal regardless. Even if the finger issue is relatively minor and clears up in a few weeks, it’s yet another hurdle that will make it challenging for Cobb to get into a groove after so many stops and starts this year.

The Guardians have been in first place for a large chunk of the season but the standings have tightened up on them lately. They are now just two games up on the Twins and just three up on the Royals in the Central. Teams like the Red Sox and Mariners aren’t far behind, so it’s possible the Guards find themselves in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the coming weeks.

For now, they will have to try to stay afloat with a rotation that still has lots of uncertainty apart from Tanner Bibee. They recently welcome Matthew Boyd back from a lengthy Tommy John absence and he looked good in his first start of the year, but it’s his fourth straight season of missing time due to a serious injury, so it’s anyone’s guess what he can provide in the coming weeks and months. Ben Lively has a 3.68 ERA on the year but with a .255 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate. His 4.90 FIP and 4.51 SIERA are less optimistic. As mentioned, Williams has an ERA over 5.00 this year.

The Guardians are off today but then play ten games in nine days starting tomorrow, thanks to a double-header against the Royals next Monday. With Cobb now out of the picture for the next little while, they will have to reach into their depth to fill out the rotation alongside Bibee, Boyd, Lively and Williams. Neither McKenzie nor Allen have been especially strong in the minors this year. Joey Cantillo has a 2.97 ERA in Triple-A but had a 6.23 ERA in his three major league starts earlier this season.

In the meantime, they’ve added another arm to their bullpen by selecting Gose. The lefty was just outrighted off the roster a week ago but accepted an assignment to Triple-A Columbus. The former outfielder has strikeout stuff on the mound but also notable control issues. In 39 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 3.46 ERA and 32.9% strikeout rate but he has also walked 15% of batters that came to the plate.

He missed the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Guards called him up earlier this month, but he was squeezed off the roster a few days later when Cobb was reinstated from the IL. Now that Cobb is back on the shelf, Gose has his roster spot back. However, Gose is out of options and could potentially be nudged off yet again in the coming days as Cleveland will need to figure out their rotation plans.

Hentges has been on the 15-day IL since July 11 due to left shoulder inflammation. He’s now ineligible to be activated until 60 days from that date, which would be the second week of September. He started a rehab assignment in early July but hasn’t pitched since August 7. A few days after that, Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed on X that Hentges was slated for more testing. His current status isn’t publicly known but the Guardians apparently don’t expect him to be able to return in the next few weeks.

The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians Promote Kyle Manzardo, Place Steven Kwan On 10-Day Injured List

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May 6: Cleveland has now announced the promotion of Manzardo and Kwan’s placement on the injured list. In a pair of corresponding moves, the Guards optioned righty Peter Strzelecki and reinstated lefty Sam Hentges from the injured list.

May 5: The Guardians will promote slugging prospect Kyle Manzardo prior to tomorrow’s game with the Tigers, according to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (X link).  Cleveland has an open space on its 40-man roster to add Manzardo, and the 26-man space will be created when outfielder Steven Kwan is placed on the 10-day injured list.

Kwan left Saturday’s game due to hamstring tightness and was set to undergo an MRI today.  The results of the tests aren’t yet known, but even if the MRI is clean, the Guards might’ve felt it necessary to sideline Kwan anyway given his long history of hamstring problems.  As Kwan explained to reporters (including Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer) yesterday, he has battled hamstring issues both in the minors and during his college days.

Losing Kwan for any amount of time is a blow to the Guardians, as his huge early-season performance has fueled Cleveland’s rise to first place in the AL Central.  Kwan is hitting .353/.407/.496 over 145 plate appearances, leading the American League in both batting average and hits (47).  Some regression is inevitable since Kwan has a .370 BABIP and has continued to make some of the weakest contact of any hitter in baseball, but the Guards were happy to ride that offensive wave for as long as possible.  In addition to this surge at the plate, Kwan has also been delivering his customary superb left field defense, and looks like a favorite to win his third straight Gold Glove.

Will Brennan got the start in left field today, but the Guardians will probably keep the Brennan/Ramon Laureano platoon going in right field and address Kwan’s absence by using Estevan Florial a bit more regularly in left.  Florial has gotten the bulk of DH at-bats for Cleveland this season, yet the team will now need the designated hitter spot as a way to get Manzardo (who only plays first base) and Josh Naylor in the lineup at the same time.  Gabriel Arias and David Fry also figure to get some playing time in the corner outfield in certain situations.

A second-round pick for the Rays in the 2021 draft, Manzardo came to Cleveland at last year’s trade deadline in the one-for-one swap that sent Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay.  Manzardo’s minor league numbers had already drawn him top-100 prospect attention prior to the trade, and he has only gotten better since joining the Guardians organization.  Manzardo is hitting .303/.375/.642 with nine home runs over 128 PA with Triple-A Columbus this season, and while the Guards chose to start him at Triple-A rather than add him to their Opening Day roster, it only seemed like a matter of time before Manzardo made his MLB debut.

MLB Pipeline ranked Manzardo 52nd on its list of the sport’s top 100 prospects, and Baseball America has him 87th.  (For lists released prior to the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Manzardo 66th and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had him 83rd.)  The consensus is clear — Manzardo’s bat is definitely ready for the big leagues, though the 23-year-old might already be ticketed for a DH-only future even in a world where Cleveland didn’t have Naylor locking down first base.  Manzardo is viewed as a decent first baseman at best, and his lack of speed makes him an implausible choice to play outfield.

At the plate, however, Manzardo is a threat.  He both makes a lot of hard contact and a lot of contact in general, befitting the Guardians’ preference for hitters who rarely strike out.  Manzardo has 50 home runs over his 990 PA in the minors, and there is some sense that he might be able to unlock more power given how well-developed his approach is in the batter’s box.

This is music to the ears of a Guardians team that has long been lacking in power, though Cleveland’s offense has been greatly improved in the early going this season.  Naylor has been a big contributor to that more dangerous lineup, but since Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season, there has been a sense that Manzardo might well be the heir apparent at first base.  Cleveland’s history of trading pricier players prior to free agency could make Naylor a big trade chip this coming offseason, so while a nice showing from Manzardo in his rookie season would certainly help the Guardians’ chances in 2024, it might have the Catch-22 of also hastening Naylor’s eventual departure.

Even if he stays on the Guards’ roster for the rest of the season, Manzardo won’t earn quite enough service time for a full season of MLB service.  As a result, he wouldn’t garner the Guardians an extra draft pick under the Prospect Promotion Incentive even if he had a top-two finish in Rookie Of The Year voting.  It is possible Manzardo might earn Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration eligibility if he garners enough service time over his first three seasons, though we won’t know that answer until the 2026 season is complete.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trevor Stephan, Daniel Espino Require Surgery; Gavin Williams To Open Season On IL

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Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will be undergoing a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted and subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”

There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.

In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. By that point, he’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action.

If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor for now.

The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of the best Rule 5 selections by any team in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization prior to the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in each of the Guards’ past two seasons.

From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.

Stephan signed a four-year, $10MM contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal includes club options for both the 2027 and 2028 seasons as well. He’ll be paid $1.6MM this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25MM club option of $1.25MM buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll have a $7.5MM option for the 2028 campaign as well. There’s no buyout on that second option.

With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over, and Cleveland clearly didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.

The news on Williams also carries immediate impact for Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, it seems he’ll miss at least a couple starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects prior to making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.

Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is a bit inflated and could stand to improve a couple ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely as well (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his outlook moving forward, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.

Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Prior to the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — that projected to be at least average offerings.

On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. On the other, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries is a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. By that point, Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over a four-year period. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns, but injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.

As for Hentges, he might not be a household name but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development himself. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign back in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.

Injury Notes: Montas, Musgrove, Hentges, Lux

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Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas told reporters yesterday that he expects to pitch in the majors at some point this season, and could begin throwing in about two months (link via MLB.com). Montas, who underwent shoulder surgery two weeks ago, noted that he “wasn’t fully 100%” when the Yankees acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline last year, though he tried to pitch through the issue.  The results of that attempt were rather discouraging, however, as Montas sported a 6.35 ERA, 38% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.93 FIP in 39 2/3 innings with the Yankees following the trade, which sent Montas and Lou Trivino to the Bronx in exchange for a four prospect package headlined by left-hander Ken Waldichuk.

The Yankees seem comfortable filling the hole in the rotation left by Montas internally with one of Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt. This hardly comes as a surprise, given the strength of New York’s rotation. During the offseason, the club added ace Carlos Rodon to a rotation that already included Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Still, it’s certainly good news for the club that Montas expects to return at some point in the second half, as he could give the club a boost down the stretch if able to return to his old form. The right-hander posted a 3.51 ERA (119 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP in 336 innings of work from 2019 to 2021, and had been pitching well in Oakland last year prior to the trade, sporting a 3.18 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.35 FIP through his 104 2/3 innings as a member of the A’s last year.

More injury updates from around the game:

  • Padres righty Joe Musgrove began throwing off flat ground yesterday, as noted by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Musgrove has been held back with a fractured big toe on his left foot this spring, and has yet to land on his left foot while throwing, instead keeping both feet rooted to the ground. The Padres, who were planning to go with a six-man rotation to open the season prior to Musgrove’s injury, are surely hoping for his quick return to action, as the right-hander figured to be a key cog at the top of San Diego’s rotation this year alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and recently signed Michael Wacha. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA (127 ERA+) with a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings of work last season, earning his first All-Star bid in the process. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension he signed last summer.
  • Guardians manager Terry Francona said yesterday that the progress of lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who has been slowed this spring by shoulder inflammation, was “really, really encouraging” (link via MLB.com). Francona notes that Hentges is set to begin doing dry work shortly and that it wouldn’t “be a surprise if he comes [back] quick,” though there’s been no specifics updates to his timetable for return. Hentges was among the best southpaw relievers in the sport last year, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate backing up his sterling 2.32 ERA that clocked in 65% above league average by ERA+. The Guardians shut Hentges down from throwing back on March 1 and said he’d be evaluated on a week-to-week basis.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that shortstop Gavin Lux’s surgery went well. Lux suffered a torn ACL and damage to his LCL while running the bases during an early spring training game, and Roberts indicated that surgery revealed “more than a sprain” in Lux’s LCL — indicating significant damage to two of the 25-year-old’s cruciate ligaments. Lux is expected to miss the entire 2023 season as he rehabs from the surgery, with the Dodgers slated to rely on trade acquisition Miguel Rojas as their primary shortstop. Utilityman Chris Taylor is expected to see occasional time at the position as well.

Guardians’ Sam Hentges Shut Down Due To Shoulder Issue

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Guardians reliever Sam Hentges has been shut down due to a shoulder issue and will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis moving forward, manager Terry Francona announced this morning (link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Hentges felt discomfort after his most recent spring outing, and a subsequent MRI revealed inflammation.

“Week-to-week” is an ominous designation for Hentges, who quietly broke out as one of the best lefty relievers in the league last season. The 26-year-old logged 62 innings of 2.32 ERA ball for Cleveland in 2022, fanning a hefty 29.4% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.8% walk rate and a mammoth 61.5% ground-ball rate. He allowed just three home runs on the season and, in addition to dominating left-handed batters (.143/.194/.176), held right-handers in check as well (.215/.301/.315).

It was a remarkable transition for Hentges, a former fourth-round pick (2014) who’d made his MLB debut in 2021 but struggled as both a starter and a reliever during that rookie campaign. Hentges pitched nearly the same number of innings in ’21 (68 1/3) but was rocked for a 6.68 ERA with vastly inferior strikeout (21.4%), walk (10.1%) and ground-ball rates (45.8%) to the ones he recorded in ’22. Hentges scaled back the usage of his four-seamer, slider and curveball during his sophomore season in Cleveland, instead leaning heavily into his sinker. He also saw his average velocity jump considerably — from 94.8 mph to 96.1 mph on the four-seamer and from 93.3 mph to 95.7 mph on the sinker — when working exclusively in shorter stints.

Hentges wasn’t limited to one-inning stints during that breakout showing, either. He worked more than one inning in 26% of his appearances in 2022 and on six occasions completed two or more frames. That prevented him from ever working on three consecutive days, but he was still a vital cog in what was one of MLB’s best bullpens in 2022; Guardians relievers worked to a collective 3.05 ERA — the fifth-best mark in the Majors. The Cleveland bullpen also ranked sixth in strikeout rate, seventh in home-run rate and ninth in walk rate.

As it stands, Hentges is the only lefty projected for a spot in Francona’s bullpen to begin the season. Tim Herrin is the lone southpaw reliever elsewhere on the 40-man, though lefty starters Joey Cantillo or Konnor Pilkington could potentially be called upon as bullpen options if needed. Lefties Phillip Diehl and Caleb Baragar signed minor league contracts with non-roster invites over the winter, and homegrown southpaw Andrew Misiaszek also got an invite to camp.

There’s no indication at this time that Hentges is in jeopardy of missing a substantial chunk of the regular season, but if the Guards want to add some insurance, the free-agent market still has a few notable names. Zack Britton, Will Smith and old friend Brad Hand are all currently unsigned.

Indians Notes: Allen, Rotation, Vargas, Hankins, Jones

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The Indians optioned lefty Logan Allen to Triple-A following a trio of rough starts, including this week’s six-run drubbing at the hands of the Twins. Three of that game’s first four batters homered off Allen to put Cleveland in an early hole. Manager Terry Francona told reporters, including Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes, that Allen’s fastball command has been off. The pitcher himself agreed, calling his location “spotty” and acknowledging that he’s regularly put himself behind in the count and tipped the advantage in the hitters’ favor. Allen was brilliant in Spring Training, allowing just one run in 14 innings with an 18-to-3 K/BB ratio, but the early results this year just haven’t been there. He’s allowed 18 runs (16 earned) on 20 hits (seven homers) and seven walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 2/3 frames.

With Allen out of the rotation for now, it’s not clear who will step into the fifth spot. Righty Cal Quantrill and lefty Sam Hentges are possible options, and Hoynes notes that Hentges was stretched out to 85 pitches at the alternate site before being recalled and plugged into the team’s bullpen. Cleveland had an off-day yesterday, but the Indians are embarking on a stretch of 10 straight days with games, so they’ll need a fifth starter this coming Tuesday.

A few more notes out of Cleveland…

  • The Indians received poor news on a pair of their top pitching prospects, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Right-hander Carlos Vargas will miss the 2021 season after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery, while fellow righty and 2018 No. 35 overall pick Ethan Hankins has been sidelined by an elbow injury of his own that is currently being evaluated by team doctors. Vargas ranks 15th among Indians prospects at FanGraphs, 17th at MLB.com and 18th at Baseball America. Hankins respectively lands 12th, 10th, and ninth on those same rankings. Neither pitcher was likely to emerge in the Majors this season, as Vargas hadn’t pitched above short-season Class-A and Hankins hadn’t progressed beyond A-ball himself. Still, it’s a noted setback for a pair of promising arms who’ll now see their timeline to the big leagues pushed back — by at least a full season in the case of Vargas.
  • Top organizational prospect Nolan Jones will see the bulk of his time at his natural position, third base, in Triple-A to begin the season, but VP of player development James Harris tells Mandy Bell of MLB.com that Jones will also see work at first base and in the outfield in order to improve his versatility. “…[W]e just don’t know where the opportunity will be,” Harris says of working Jones at multiple positions. Both first base and the outfield have been much weaker spots in the Cleveland lineup than third base in recent seasons — in part due to Jose Ramirez’s emergence as an MVP-caliber talent but also due to a generally lackluster collection of hitters in a cobbled-together mix in the outfield and at first base. Jake Bauers has been among the game’s least-productive hitters at first base this season, and the Indians’ piecemeal approach to the outfield has again resulted in sub-par production. Indians outfielders have combined for a lowly 83 wRC+ in 2021, which ranks 23rd in MLB. Their first basemen are 29th of 30 by that same measure, checking in at just 58. Jones entered the season widely regarded as one of MLB’s top 50 overall prospects.
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