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World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly

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Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.

But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.

Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…

  • With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ’Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).

AL Notes: Pressly, Tanaka, Gallo

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Astros relief ace Ryan Pressly was removed from tonight’s Game Six action after apparently re-aggravating his balky right knee while fielding a ball in the third inning. It was enough surely to make the Houston faithful hold their collective breath, since Pressly missed several weeks after having that same knee surgically repaired in August. For the time being, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that the righty is day-to-day with “right knee discomfort” (link).

With tonight’s game still hanging in the balance, it’s tough to know whether that “day-to-day” designation might be a moot point, as a win this evening would allow the reliever a few days to heal in advance of the World Series’ first game on Tuesday. Placement on the injured list, however, would likely force the team to turn to Wade Miley for their Fall Classic roster, who was left off the team’s ALCS roster after giving up two earned runs in a 2.2 IP appearance in the ALDS. The superlative Pressly pitched to a 2.32 ERA (2.66 FIP) in 54.1 innings in the 2019 regular season.

More notes from around the American League…

  • In other ALCS-related news, Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated that Masahiro Tanaka should be available for a potential Game 7 scenario, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (link). Tanaka, much-hyped heading into Game 4 due to his impressive postseason resume to that point, ground through a five-inning, three-run performance on Thursday night.
  • How much is a home run worth, really? That’s a question that has become du jour in modern baseball, as the prevalence of longballs has seemed to diminish the on-field value–and off-field earning power–of power hitters like Joey Gallo of the Rangers. But, as Levi Weaver of The Athletic points out, Gallo is a player for whom it would be particularly difficult to draw up a contract extension. Gallo, the only player in MLB history to hit his 100th career homer before his 100th career single, presents a vexing extension case: he’s still young (26 on Opening Day 2020), unconventionally productive (recording a 144 wRC+ in 2019 despite a 38.4% strikeout rate), and he’s dealt with injury concerns (missing 92 games this past season with wrist issues). Perhaps, more than anything, Gallo’s meaty home run totals project to make him an expensive year-over-year arbitration case, further fueling the incentive to get a long-term deal done on the Rangers side of the negotiating table. In a courageous effort to pinpoint Gallo’s value, Weaver proposes a five-year, $85MM extension, perhaps with a sixth team option year valued at $25MM. For what it’s worth, the slugger is projected to earn $4.0MM in his first pass through arb this offseason, according to MLBTR’s projected arbitration models.

Astros Activate Ryan Pressly

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The Astros have one of their best pitchers back from the injured list. Barely four weeks after Ryan Pressly underwent an arthroscopic knee procedure, he’s been reinstated from the IL, the team announced. A four- to six-week timeline was projected at the time of the surgery.

Pressly, 30, returns to the ’Stros with enough time left on the calendar to get into a few games as a tuneup for the postseason. He’ll rejoin a bullpen that is currently without teammates Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh, each of whom remains on the injured list. McHugh’s throwing program was recently shut down due to renewed elbow discomfort, while Peacock is trying to work back from shoulder trouble that has hindered him throughout the season.

Given those injuries, a healthy Pressly is all the more important. Since being acquired from the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline, he’s morphed from an above-average reliever to a virtual juggernaut, pitching 78 2/3 innings of 1.94 ERA ball with 104 strikeouts against 17 walks between the regular season and last year’s playoff run. Pressly made his first All-Star team in 2019, and he’s currently tied with Sergio Romo for the MLB lead among qualified relievers in terms of opponents’ chase rate (40.9 percent) while sitting 11th in swinging-strike rate (17.3 percent).

Pressly would’ve been a free agent following the 2019 season were it not for the two-year, $17.5MM contract extension he signed prior to Opening Day. The Astros now control him for both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and his deal also includes a vesting/club option for the 2022 campaign as well.

AL Injury Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Jays, Tigers

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Let’s check in on a few notable injury situations from the American League…

  • Astros reliever Ryan Pressly is closing in on a return, manager A.J. Hinch revealed Tuesday (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The first-place club has been without Pressly, likely its premier reliever, since he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Aug. 22. Expectations then were that Pressly would miss four to six weeks, so it looks as if he’ll come back at the low end of that timeline (if not sooner). In further welcome news for the Astros, shortstop Carlos Correa could join Triple-A Round Rock for a rehab game Friday. The star went down at roughly the same time as Pressly because of a back ailment, though it now appears the two will get back with time to spare before the playoffs as Houston goes for its second championship since 2017.
  • Red Sox left-hander David Price is “feeling better, little by little,” as he works back from a wrist injury, manager Alex Cora said Tuesday (via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Although the Red Sox’s playoff hopes are dashed, Price still plans to pitch again this season. After that, though, he may need to undergo a minor surgery to repair the issue, Hewitt reports. Price’s wrist has been a problem since last month, having limited him to two appearances and a combined 4 2/3 innings since the end of July.
  • The Blue Jays are likely to activate reliever Elvis Luciano from the injured list Wednesday or Thursday, Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests. Luciano, whom the Jays took in last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, would then have enough time to meet the required 90 days on their active roster. If that happens, it’s likely he’ll begin next season at the Double-A level, Mitchell notes. This has been a trying season in the bigs for Luciano, who has been out since the first half of June with a sprained right elbow. Before that, he posted an unappealing 7.16 ERA with more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) in 27 2/3 innings. Of course, considering the 19-year-old Luciano is the youngest player in the majors and hadn’t even pitched above rookie ball before this season, it’s no surprise he has experienced adversity in his first MLB go-around.
  • Tigers utilityman Niko Goodrum is reportedly unlikely to return this season, though he hasn’t given up on a potential late-season comeback, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. Goodrum hasn’t played in nearly three weeks thanks to an adductor strain, which has taken away a much-needed bright spot for the struggling Tigers. The uber-versatile 27-year-old has slashed .248/.322/.421 with 12 home runs, a dozen steals and 1.9 fWAR across 472 plate appearances.

West Notes: Panda, D-backs, Astros, Rockies

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The latest on several notable players from the majors’ West divisions…

  • Although Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is set for Tommy John surgery, his season doesn’t look over quite yet. Manager Bruce Bochy told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group and other reporters Thursday that Sandoval could at least make some pinch-hit appearances before he goes under the knife. In the meantime, Sandoval will test out his swing to see if he’ll be able to contribute more this season. The longtime Giant, 33, is a strong bet to hit free agency in the offseason, meaning his run in San Francisco could be on the verge of concluding.
  • Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver continues progressing toward a 2019 return, Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic relays. Weaver, out since late May with a UCL strain and a flexor sprain in his pitching arm, will throw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday, and the club will determine where to go from there. While Weaver was eminently effective out of the Diamondbacks’ rotation earlier this season, the lack of time left in the campaign will force him to pitch from their bullpen if he does return. Meantime, the news is less encouraging for fellow righty Taijuan Walker, whose 2018 Tommy John surgery and ’19 shoulder problems have stopped him from taking a major league mound this season. Walker is throwing, but it’s “unlikely” that he’ll come back this year, Morin writes.
  • In welcome news for the Astros’ bullpen, injured reliever Ryan Pressly is doing “quite well” in his recovery from knee surgery, according to manager A.J. Hinch (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Pressly could resume light throwing over the weekend. His absence dating back to Aug. 21 has deprived the title-contending Astros of arguably their best reliever as the postseason approaches. The right-handed Pressly has logged a 2.50 ERA/2.83 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (11.62 K/9, 1.97 BB/9) over 50 1/3 innings this season. Teammate and fellow righty reliever Josh James could come off the IL this weekend, meanwhile, per McTaggart. The promising 26-year-old has fanned a prolific 14.03 batters per nine across 51 1/3 frames this season, though a bloated walk rate (5.03 per nine) has helped lead to a 4.73 ERA/4.11 FIP.
  • Rockies reliever Scott Oberg explained to Thomas Harding of MLB.com why he recently underwent surgery to address blood clots in his right arm, saying, “It just felt really heavy.” It’s the second instance of blood clots for Oberg, but fortunately, he’s not suffering from any kind of major medical condition. The soon-to-be 30-year-old expects to be ready to go for 2020, when he’ll try to build on a second straight impressive campaign. This season has been anything but impressive for Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who’s currently on the IL with a strained groin, but he’s working toward a return; however, there’s no timetable for a possible comeback, Harding relays. Freeland went from Cy Young candidate a year ago to someone who has faced a minor league demotion this season and pitched to a ghastly 6.98 ERA/6.12 FIP over 20 starts and 99 1/3 innings in the bigs.

Pitcher Notes: Pressly, Verlander, Pivetta

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All-Star Astros relief ace Ryan Pressly underwent surgery on his right knee Friday, but the right-hander is determined to make it back to action before the end of the season, as detailed in a piece from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It’s always frustrating when you miss time, rather it being in Spring Training or offseason, or even now,” Pressly said. “Stuff like this happens. It’s a baseball injury and you just have to figure out a way to get back as fast as you can.”

Pressly had already missed time with a knee injury this summer, so Astros fans are surely hoping that this direct address of the hurler’s nagging injury will get him ready for the postseason. Statistically speaking, there’s basically nothing to dislike about Pressly’s 2019 output. With a 2.50 ERA, 11.62 K/9 rate,  and SwStr% exceeding 17% in 50.1 innings this year, Pressly should give October opposition another thing to fear aside from the Stros’ vaunted starting trio of Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander.

More notes on pitching from around the game of baseball…

  • Speaking of Verlander, Chris Thomas of the Detroit Free Press has details on a recent, bizarre incident in Houston involving the veteran pitcher and journalist Anthony Fenech. In a possible violation of the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, the Astros denied clubhouse access to Fenech (a Detroit Free Press writer) this week, after being requested to do so by Verlander. As Thomas’ report lays out, Verlander is apparently still sour over several perceived violations on his privacy by Fenech during the pitcher’s days in Detroit, including Fenech’s tweeting of a private, astronomy-centric conversation between Verlander and Al Kaline in 2017. Obviously, readers should bear in mind that this Free Press article is likely to advocate for an employee facing possibly unfair public scrutiny, but it does offer interesting insight into the fiery, vigilant personality that Verlander employs both on and off the mound.
  • 26-year-old righty Nick Pivetta has been sent to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, courtesy of a Phillies organization that has watched him struggle to a 5.38 ERA in 88.2 innings in 2019. Pivetta, long touted as a potential breakout candidate due to his bat-missing abilities, has been particularly stung by the long ball this year, as 22.4% of flyballs against him have left the yard. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports paraphrases manager Gabe Kapler as having said that Pivetta needs to use this demotion to “look in (the) mirror and show more accountability” (link).

Latest On Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly

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Astros shortstop Carlos Correa missed over a month last year because of a back problem. With this season’s playoffs approaching, the Astros placed Correa on the injured list Wednesday with more back issues, though he and the club are optimistic he won’t stay on the shelf for long this time. Correa underwent an MRI that showed no structural damage, and he doesn’t think his injury’s “serious,” Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweets.

General manager Jeff Luhnow took a fairly optimistic tone when discussing Correa’s status Thursday, saying (via Mark Berman of Fox 26): “We’re waiting to see how he responds to treatment. So we’ll know more in the coming days. In my mind the calendar I have, is that he’s gonna be rehabbing and probably playing in minor league games the first week of September and hopefully back with the big league team the second week of September. If that happens I think it means that he’ll have three weeks of regular season left and whatever’s after that.”

For Houston, which owns the American League’s second-best record (81-47), “whatever’s after” the regular season will surely be at least one playoff series. The Astros rank among this year’s most dominant teams thanks in part to Correa, who has slashed .278/.358/.556 with 19 home runs and 2.9 fWAR in 340 plate appearances. However, they’ve shown little let-up in the face of injuries to Correa, who previously missed over a month with a broken rib, or other mashers such as George Springer and Jose Altuve. The club selected Abraham Toro from Triple-A Round Rock on Thursday, and he’ll initially get a chance at the hot corner while all-world third baseman Alex Bregman slides from third to short to cover for Correa.

The Astros are also dealing with significant adversity in their bullpen, which just lost right-hander Ryan Pressly for four to six weeks on account of arthroscopic knee surgery. Luhnow acknowledged Thursday that the injury to Pressly is “a blow,” though the executive’s taking a “glass half full” approach and hoping the 30-year-old will be back to tune up before the playoffs (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Pressly has been marvelous this year, his first All-Star campaign, having recorded a 2.50 ERA/2.83 FIP with 11.62 K/9, 1.97 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate over 50 1/3 innings. It’s fair to say the Astros won’t be operating at full strength come playoff time without Pressly at 100 percent.

Ryan Pressly To Undergo Knee Surgery, Miss 4-6 Weeks

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The Astros have placed right-hander Ryan Pressly on the 10-day injured list, amidst a series of roster moves.  (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to report the news.)  Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other media that Pressly will miss four-to-six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.

Infielder Jack Mayfield was optioned to Triple-A, while right-hander Joe Biagini was recalled from the minors and third baseman Abraham Toro’s contract has been selected for his Major League debut, as reported earlier today.

This is the second time that Pressly’s right knee has sent him to the IL this season, as he missed about two weeks in late July and early August due to soreness in the joint.  The problem first arose when Pressly was hit in the knee by a ball off the bat of Andrelton Simmons back on July 18, and Luhnow said today that Pressly felt some more soreness after his latest outing.  A previously-undiscovered “small issue” was found after a span of Pressly’s knee, and a surgical procedure seems to have been the decided course of action to fix the problem once and for all.

Luhnow is hopeful that Pressly will be able to return to action before the postseason begins, though the four-to-six timeline will make it a close call if Pressly’s recovery time is anything more than minimal.  It also creates uncertainty as to whether Houston will have arguably its best bullpen arm fully healthy and ready to go come time for the playoffs.

Pressly’s dominant work earned him the first All-Star appearance of his seven-year career, as the righty has a 2.50 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 50.8% grounder rate, and 5.91 K/BB rate over 50 1/3 relief innings this season.  Statcast credits him with the best curveball spin rate of any pitcher in baseball in 2019, and he is also in the 98th percentile of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin.  It’s possible Pressly’s numbers could be even more dominant if it wasn’t for some bad luck with the long ball, as he has a 23.1% home run rate.

Losing Pressly is a big blow to any relief corps, even one as deep and talented as the Astros’ bullpen.  Brad Peacock recently returned from the IL himself to add some extra depth, and Biagini will make a quick return after being optioned to Triple-A just last week.  Aaron Sanchez is currently on the injured list recovering from a pec injury, though once he returns, he is also likely to lineup as a reliever in the postseason since Houston won’t need a fifth starter.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Astros scour the waiver wire for any late pickups, or perhaps try to swing a trade with another team for a pitcher on a minor league contract (players on MLB deals can’t be traded after the July 31 deadline, of course).  While Pressly’s loss isn’t likely to cost the Astros the AL West or anything, the team wants to have as many relief options as possible in preparation for what they hope is a long postseason run, especially if there’s any concern as to whether Pressly will make it back in time.

Astros Place Ryan Pressly On IL

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9:45am: Highly regarded righty Bryan Abreu will take the open roster spot, per the Astros Future Twitter account (link). The 22-year-old already has a 40-man spot but hadn’t yet debuted in the majors. It could just be a brief fill-in job, but the Astros could also consider Abreu a late-season option at the MLB level. Abreu is said to possess high-end stuff but is still learning how to command it. He is being developed as a starter in the minors. In 55 2/3 innings this year at the Double-A level, Abreu owns a 5.17 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9.

9:28am: The Astros have placed reliever Ryan Pressly on the 10-day injured list, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). It seems the move was technically made yesterday, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic notes on Twitter, since it’s backdated to June 27th.

Fortunately, this still seems to be a minor issue for the Houston organization and one of its best arms. Pressly has been limited by knee soreness after being struck in the joint by a batted ball, but there’s no indication he is dealing with any structural issues. With a healthy division lead, the ’Stros can afford to allow Pressly a chance to heal up and get back to full health.

Pressly, 30, has been exceptional again this season after being traded to Houston in the midst of a breakout 2018 showing. (He went on to ink an extension that seems to represent an exceptional value for the club.) Through 44 1/3 innings in 2019, Pressly has produced a 2.03 ERA while carrying 11.2 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 along with a 50.9% groundball rate.

With or without today’s injury news, the Astros figure to be on the hunt for relief arms. While it’s certainly not the chief need — that’d be in the rotation — the club could stand to improve and deepen its bullpen, particularly from the left side.

Astros Extend Ryan Pressly

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TODAY: This deal is now official. The option vests with sixty appearances apiece in 2021 and 2022, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets.

YESTERDAY, 8:35pm: The vesting option is based on appearances and is worth $10MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.

8:11pm: The two sides have an agreement in place, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.

8:01pm: The Astros and right-hander Ryan Pressly are close to finalizing a two-year extension worth a guaranteed $17.5MM, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. The deal would kick in beginning with the 2020 season, paying him $8.75MM that year and again in 2021, with a vesting option for a third season. He’s already earning $2.9MM in 2019 after avoiding arbitration and was set to become a free agent at season’s end. Pressly is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Ryan Pressly |Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Pressly, 30, joined the Astros in a midseason that sent prospects Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala to the Twins in July. Already in the midst of a strong season in Minnesota, Pressly became an all-out buzzsaw in the late innings with Houston. Pressly, who attributed his breakout to the Astros’ analytics department and its presentation of data to players, pitched to a 0.77 ERA with a 32-to-3 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 regular-season innings following the trade. He tacked on another five innings and allowed one run in the postseason.

A former Rule 5 pick by the Twins out of the Red Sox system, Pressly steadily improved his K/BB numbers from 2015-18, and his improvement in ’18 has the look of a potential elite weapon for the Astros moving forward. No reliever in baseball topped Pressly in terms of curveball spin rate — Garrett Richards was the only pitcher in all of MLB to best him in that regard — and the spin rate on Pressly’s fastball ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers.

He also ranked in the top five percent of the league in terms of overall strikeout percentage and several Statcast metrics (including expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average). Whether looking at traditional stats or newer metrics, Pressly was an overpowering force in 2018, and the Astros apparently had no interest in letting him get to the open market.

While that dominance hasn’t been sustained over a multi-year stint yet, there’s still an argument that Pressly could’ve reached free agency next winter as the market’s most desirable reliever. He hasn’t yet reached even $7MM in career earnings, so it’s easy to see why would take the security of a guaranteed payday worth two and a half times what he’s banked since his MLB debut. But, the relatively short-term nature of the deal and the $8.75MM annual rate could both have been topped with a similarly strong 2019 campaign; Adam Ottavino, for instance, parlayed a 2018 season that was not as dominant as Pressly’s into a three-year deal worth $27MM. Extensions are always a question of risk tolerance, though, and Pressly’s annual value is commensurate the annual rates attained by Ottavino and Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM with the Dodgers).

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