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The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time

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The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.

If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.

Likely Front Runners

Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining

Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.

Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining

A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.

Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.

Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.

Top Prospects

Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster

Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.

It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.

Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster

The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.

He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.

Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.

Further Down Depth Chart

Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining

Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.

That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.

Dylan Covey/Robbie Erlin

Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.

Nick Nastrini/Landon Knack

Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.

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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.

Dodgers Place David Price On 15-Day Injured List

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12:34PM: Price has been officially placed on the 15-day IL and Pepiot was officially recalled.

7:51AM: The Dodgers will place left-hander David Price on the 15-day injured list today, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) following last night’s game.  Right-hander Ryan Pepiot will be called up from Triple-A to take Price’s spot on the active roster, and Pepiot is scheduled to work as the bulk pitcher today behind opener Caleb Ferguson.

Price is dealing with inflammation in his left wrist, and received an MRI to fully explore an injury that Roberts said has been nagging Price for the entire season.  The injury isn’t considered overly serious, and Price is expected back before the regular season is over.  Since Price hasn’t pitched since August 29, his IL placement will be backdated a few days and he could be back by mid-September if he is able to return from the IL when first eligible.

Price has hinted that this could be his final season, and while the lefty is no longer an ace or even a starting pitcher, Price is still effective at age 37.  Over 38 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen, Price has a 2.58 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate.  He has been particularly effective in the second half of the season, with a 1.13 ERA over 16 frames since the All-Star break.

While Price doesn’t usually pitch in high-leverage situations, ending his career as a relief pitcher would provide a nice bookend to his first MLB season, when the Rays used Price as a key late-game weapon in 2008 and Price helped Tampa Bay reach the World Series.  The Dodgers are deep in pitching options, but presumably Price (if healthy) has done enough to merit inclusion on the team’s postseason roster, and to potentially cap off his career with another championship.

Once the Price move is official, the Dodgers will have 10 pitchers on the injured list, with some already known to be out for the season and others battling more minor injuries.  Since L.A. enjoys an 18-game lead in the NL West, the team has some flexibility in giving players time off to address nagging injuries and get fully healed for the postseason.

In other Dodgers injury news, Brusdar Graterol is hoping to play catch today or tomorrow as he recovers from right elbow inflammation.  Graterol told Bill Plunkett of the Southern California News Group and other reporters that his injury is indeed just inflammation, as revealed by a recent MRI.  Graterol was retroactively placed on the 15-day injured list on August 31, just over a week after he returned from missing nearly six weeks on another IL stint due to shoulder inflammation.

Plunkett also reported that Tony Gonsolin was doing some throwing in the outfield yesterday, which is a good sign given the concerning nature of the forearm strain that sent Gonsolin to the 15-day IL earlier this week.  The Dodgers were hopeful at the time that Gonsolin’s strain was relatively minor, and that his IL trip was mostly preventative.  Roberts said a few days ago that Gonsolin received good results on an MRI, and Gonsolin already throwing is a step towards the All-Star right-hander possibly being able to return in relatively short order.

Moving onto position players, Roberts told Plunkett and company that Gavin Lux will miss a few games after receiving a cortisone shot.  Lux has missed time over the last two weeks dealing with neck and upper-back soreness, and the hope is that the cortisone shot will help enough that Lux can avoid the injured list.

Lux has been the Dodgers’ primary second baseman this season, also getting a good chunk of time in left field and some fill-in work at shortstop.  The former top prospect has somewhat quietly had a breakout at the plate, hitting .293/.368/.428 with six homers and a league-best seven triples over 418 plate appearances, translating to a 127 wRC+ that is well above the league average.  Max Muncy’s resurgence over the last few weeks gives the Dodgers some cover at second base with Lux at less than 100 percent, but Los Angeles could definitely use Lux healthy for the postseason.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On 10-Day IL, Select Kevin Pillar

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The Dodgers have placed infielder Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list due to left elbow inflammation.  Kevin Pillar’s contract was selected from Triple-A to take Muncy’s spot on the active roster, and Los Angeles moved Tommy Kahnle to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man place for Pillar.  In another move, right-hander Michael Grove was called up to the active roster, while right-hander Ryan Pepiot was optioned to Triple-A.

Muncy knocked his elbow into a wall while chasing a foul ball on Wednesday, and he has missed the Dodgers’ last two games.  However, Muncy’s elbow has been an ongoing concern since he partially tore his UCL in the final game of the 2021 regular season.  Muncy opted against any type of surgery, but clearly hasn’t been his usual self at the dish, batting only .150/.327/.263 over his first 168 plate appearances.

“We all know he’s been grinding with the arm issue,” manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters on Thursday.  Roberts implied at the time that a IL stint would be necessary, saying “I’m going to give him some time off to kind of reset the arm…I don’t know if there’s an aggravation in there. But we just have to kind of temper back a little bit.”

Given the lingering nature of Muncy’s elbow problems, it seems likely that he’ll miss more than just the minimum 10 days, as both the infielder and the Dodgers surely want to make sure he’s properly ready before a return to action.  It isn’t known if surgery is being considered as a possibility to correct the issue once and for all, as Muncy said back in March that he was told by doctors that surgery wasn’t necessary.

It is a testament to the Dodgers’ depth and overall quality that L.A. is still dominating the league without much contribution from such key players as Muncy, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and with several pitchers (including Clayton Kershaw) on the injured list.  However, for Los Angeles to capture another World Series title, they’ll surely need some help from some of these names come October.

Muncy has been mostly splitting time between second and third base.  Turner and the hot-hitting Edwin Rios can handle third base, while Muncy’s absence could mean more time for Gavin Lux and Hanser Alberto at the keystone.  Chris Taylor has been exclusively used as an outfielder this season, but the longtime utilityman figures to factor into the infield picture as well, especially with Pillar now on the roster to provide outfield depth.

A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 over 347 PA with the Mets last season, and both sides declined their ends of options on Pillar’s services for the 2023 season.  Pillar had wait until after the lockout to find his next contract and had to settle for a minor league deal, but he’ll now receive a $2.5MM guaranteed salary for making the Dodgers’ active roster.

Pillar had two opportunities to opt out of his minors deal since the Dodgers hadn’t yet called him up to the majors, and a third opt-out date was set for June 1.  Beyond the contractual details, Pillar was also doing a lot to force the Dodgers’ hand by ripping up Triple-A pitching — the outfielder has hit .315/.412/.622 over 153 PA with Oklahoma City this season.  It’s probably safe to assume that Pillar (career 88 wRC+) won’t keep up that kind of production in the big leagues, but the Dodgers only need him to handle part-time outfield duty while they figure out the position player mix.

Dodgers Announce Series Of Roster Moves

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The Dodgers announced a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s doubleheader against the D-backs. Right-hander Mitch White has been reinstated from the Covid-related injured list, with righty Blake Treinen moving to the 60-day injured list in order to open a roster spot. Los Angeles also optioned lefty Caleb Ferguson in favor of lefty Justin Bruihl, who’s been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City. The Dodgers also placed right-hander Tommy Kahnle on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm and brought righty Ryan Pepiot up as the 27th man for today’s twin bill.

Additional moves seem likely to take place between the day’s games, as manager Dave Roberts announced to reporters that lefty David Price will be activated from the Covid IL for the second game against Arizona (Twitter link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). That’ll require an additional 40-man move.

Treinen’s move to the 60-day injured list further solidifies what Roberts explained earlier in the month when he told reporters that while the right-hander was forgoing an additional visit to a third-party doctor and would instead focus on rehabbing his shoulder with an eye toward returning after the All-Star break. Treinen enjoyed a dominant 2021 season for the Dodgers but pitched just three innings in 2022 before landing on the injured list with the shoulder injury that’ll now officially cost him at least half the season.

Turning to Kahnle, any forearm injury to a pitcher is generally cause for some concern, as they’re often portents to more treacherous diagnoses. In the case of Kahnle, he’s only just returned from Tommy John surgery and has seen his average fastball (95.5 mph) check in a fair bit shy of its pre-surgery levels in 2019 (96.6 mph). The Dodgers signed him to a two-year, $4.75MM deal prior to the 2021 season, knowing he’d miss the first season of the contract while rehabbing that surgery. He’s appeared in just four games for L.A. this season. The team did not provide a timetable for his potential return.

Dodgers Select Yency Almonte, Option Ryan Pepiot

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The Dodgers have selected right-hander Yency Almonte onto the major league roster and optioned Ryan Pepiot to Triple-A Oklahoma City, reports J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Pepiot had been selected himself only Tuesday in order to start yesterday’s game against the Pirates.

Almonte, who made 114 appearances for the Rockies between 2018 and 2021, was off to a strong start in the Pacific Coast League, covering 15 1/3 innings striking out 42.4% of batters faced and issuing only a single walk. But while he was effective in 2018 and 2020, Almonte’s big-league numbers aren’t nearly as rosy. In 124 career innings in the bigs, the righty owns a 5.30 ERA (4.83 FIP) with strikeout and walk rates of 20.7% and 9.7%, respectively. As with any former Rockie, though, Almonte’s overall numbers don’t tell the whole story; while his career ERA of 6.46 in 71 home innings is ghastly even by Coors Field standards, his 3.74 mark in 53 innings at sea level is far more palatable.

Pepiot’s Wednesday debut was something of a mixed bag. While he allowed no runs in his three innings of work, he also walked a bit of a tightrope, issuing five walks and one hit) didn’t give manager Dave Roberts much length — perhaps precipitating the call for an additional arm. While being optioned would ordinarily require a player to remain in the minors for ten days before being recalled, though, his stay could be much shorter. As Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic notes, Pepiot would be eligible to serve as the 27th man for Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Diamondbacks. With no timetable set for the return of Andrew Heaney from shoulder problems, the Butler product’s trip to Oklahoma City could well be little more than a procedural move as the Dodgers attempt to navigate an innings crunch.

Dodgers Designate Robbie Erlin For Assignment

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The Dodgers designated lefty Robbie Erlin for assignment, according to an announcement from the team.  The move accompanies the club’s selection of Ryan Pepiot’s contract.

Erlin, 31, spent 2021 with the Nippon Ham Fighters of NPB.  He inked a minor league deal with the Dodgers in February, and returned to a 40-man roster when his contract was selected Saturday, allowing him to serve as the 27th man in a doubleheader against the Cubs.  In his first big league action in nearly 20 months, Erlin posted a scoreless mop-up inning Sunday and then gave up a pair of runs to put a game in Pittsburgh further out of reach on Monday.

Considered one of the 35 best prospects in the game when the Rangers sent him to San Diego in the Mike Adams deal at the 2011 trade deadline, Erlin underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2016.  The Padres bounced him from their 40-man in October 2019, and then he moved to the Pirates and Braves before heading overseas.

In that classic MLB circle of life, Erlin has surrendered his Dodgers 40-man roster spot to Pepiot, who ranked 90th on Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list.  Pepiot, a 24-year-old righty, is a 55-grade prospect with what BA describes as a “devastating” changeup but “below average control.”  Pepiot hasn’t yet solved the control issue in his 68 Triple-A innings, but the Dodgers needed a starter for this afternoon’s game in Pittsburgh.

Dodgers To Promote Ryan Pepiot

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3:42 PM: Right-hander Ryan Pepiot, selected by the Dodgers in the third round of the 2019 amateur draft, will indeed make his major league debut tomorrow, reports Juan Toribio of MLB.com (Twitter link). As noted below, the move had been widely speculated after Robbie Erlin — the most logical candidate on the active roster to start tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Pirates — worked in relief both Sunday and Monday.

It’ll be the first taste of the majors for Pepiot. After reaching Triple-A last year in his first full minor league season, the Butler product has cruised through 26 1/3 innings (over six starts) with a 2.05 ERA at Triple-A Oklahoma City. With no timetable set for Andrew Heaney’s return from the IL, it could be more than just a spot start for Pepiot should he find some success.

10:09 AM: The Dodgers have added right-handed pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot to their taxi squad, and manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett) that the move “just leaves the option” for the club to potentially start Pepiot for Wednesday’s game against the Pirates.  If Pepiot does start, it will mark the 24-year-old’s MLB debut.

By using Robbie Erlin in relief work both on Sunday and Monday, Roberts admitted that “certainly makes it more likely” that Pepiot will indeed get the ball for Wednesday’s game.  However, Roberts also cited Andre Jackson as a potential starting candidate, and said that “we’re not going to commit to” a starter for now, “but certainly getting [Pepiot] here in town puts us in a position where we can do that if we choose to.”

There could be some gamesmanship at play here, since it would seem a little unusual for the Dodgers to disrupt Pepiot’s Triple-A routine by bringing him to Pittsburgh and then leaving him on the taxi squad.  Or, the Dodgers might simply be weighing some roster considerations, as Pepiot would need to be added to the 40-man (whereas Jackson, who is also at Triple-A, is already on the 40-man roster).

Los Angeles has the need for an extra arm due to a doubleheader last Saturday against the Cubs, and then another doubleheader scheduled for May 17 against the Diamondbacks.  All told, the Dodgers are in the midst of a stretch of 14 games in 12 days, so whomever starts on Wednesday will also take the mound for one of those two May 17 games.

Pepiot was a third-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2019 draft, and looks to be the latest in a long line of quality arms developed out of the L.A. farm system.  ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Pepiot 59th on his preseason list of baseball’s best prospects, crediting the right-hander with “probably has the best changeup in the whole minor leagues, an at least 70-grade Bugs Bunny-type offering.”  Baseball America (ranking Pepiot 90th on their top 100 list) and MLB Pipeline (99th) have similar praise for Pepiot’s changeup, with BA’s scouting report even giving the pitch a perfect 80 on the 20-80 grading scale.

Pepiot’s 94-97 mph fastball is another premium offering, earning 70-grades from BA and Pipeline.  However, his fastball control isn’t great and his slider and curveball are pretty average, leading to questions about whether or not Pepiot’s ultimate future might be in relief pitching.  Over 151 total innings in the minors, Pepiot has a 3.75 ERA, 30.22% strikeout rate, and 11.21% walk rate — this include a 2.05 ERA over six starts and 26 1/3 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City this season.

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