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Ross Stripling Exercises Player Option With Giants

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Right-hander Ross Stripling has exercised his $12.5MM player option for next season, per Danny Emerman of KNBR.com. Stripling, 34 this month, will return to the Giants for the 2024 season rather than test the open market. The move is hardly a surprise, particularly given the fact that Stripling himself announced that he expected to exercise his player option back in September.

After signing with the Giants on a two-year, $25MM guarantee this past winter on the heels of a strong platform season in Toronto, Stripling struggled badly in San Francisco this year. The right-hander ultimately pitched just 89 innings with the Giants this year across 22 appearances, 11 of which were starts. In addition to posting his lowest full-season innings total since 2017, Stripling struggled to get results. His strikeout rate dipped from 20.7% in 2022 to just 18.4% this year, while his walk rate crept up from 3.7% to 4.2%.

While those rates both trended in the wrong direction, the marginal loss in K-BB doesn’t compare to the massive home run problem Stripling faced in 2023. Despite the fact that only Comerica Park in Detroit and PNC Park in San Francisco suppressed home runs at a higher clip than Stripling’s home stadium of Oracle Park, the right-hander saw a whopping 22% of his fly balls leave the yard for home runs this year. Not only was that figure a career high in a full season only matched by Stripling’s 22.8% figure in the shortened 2022 campaign, but it was the second highest rate in the majors this year, barely edged out by Phillies righty Christopher Sanchez’s 22.2% figure. With Stripling allowing more than two home runs per nine innings in 2023, it’s hardly a surprise that Stripling’s 5.36 ERA and 5.21 FIP were the worst figures of his career during a full season.

That being said, there’s reason for optimism that Stripling could improve upon his 2023 campaign next year. After all, he missed two months this year across two separate IL stints due to back issues, suggesting it’s possible he wasn’t fully healthy for much of the season. Better health alongside better fortune regarding the number of his fly balls that leave the yard for home runs in 2024 could drastically improve Stripling’s effectiveness next year; after all, even in this brutal season some advanced metrics looked upon Stripling favorably as demonstrated by his 3.98 xFIP (9% better than league average) and 4.13 SIERA.

The Giants are still waiting on option decisions from left-hander Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto, both of whom can also return to the open market rather than playing out the final year of two-year deals they inked with the club last winter. Meanwhile, San Francisco faces a decision of its own regard veteran right-hander Alex Cobb. Manaea and Conforto are both reportedly undecided on whether or not they’ll return to free agency this offseason, while Cobb’s option, once an obvious choice for San Francisco to exercise, could be muddied by a recent hip surgery that figures to keep him out of action through Opening Day 2024.

Ross Stripling Not Expecting To Opt Out Of Giants Deal

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Giants right-hander Ross Stripling has the ability to return to free agency this offseason, as he can opt out of a $12.5MM salary for next year. However, the 33-year-old indicated this evening that he doesn’t anticipate heading back to the open market.

Stripling rather frankly told the team’s beat he “hasn’t pitched well enough to opt out” (relayed by Maria Guardado of MLB.com). While a blunt self-assessment, it’s not an especially surprising declaration. The veteran hurler has a 5.29 ERA over 78 1/3 innings on the season. That’s well off the 3.01 earned runs per nine which Stripling had allowed during his final year with the Blue Jays.

While he wasn’t especially overpowering even during his best seasons in Toronto, Stripling has lost a couple percentage points off his strikeout rate. He has still been one of the league’s best at avoiding free passes but has proven far too home run prone. Stripling has allowed 2.30 homers per nine, well above last year’s 0.80 HR/9 figure. Stripling had been susceptible to the longball in both 2020 and ’21.

In addition to the inconsistent production, Stripling has spent the past three weeks on the injured list with a back strain. It’s his second such IL stay of the year. He has expressed a bit of frustration with his status, telling reporters over the weekend he feels the club is keeping him on the IL beyond when he’s healthy enough to return because the team is reluctant to bump someone else off the roster. He reiterated today that he believes he’s ready for a return after throwing 50 pitches in a batting practice session.

Stripling is one of a handful of San Francisco players whose contracts have upcoming player options. Michael Conforto has an $18MM provision, while Sean Manaea will need to decide whether to retain a $12.5MM salary. Neither of those cases are as straightforward as Stripling’s, but both seem likely to return to San Francisco themselves. Conforto started slowly offensively. He’d seemed to find his stride midseason but has missed the past few weeks with a hamstring strain. Manaea lost his rotation spot early on and has worked mostly in multi-inning relief. Despite a solid 27.2% strikeout rate, he owns an even 5.00 ERA through 93 2/3 frames.

NL West Notes: Betts, Marte, Stripling, Lee

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Mookie Betts hasn’t played since suffering a bone bruise on his left foot on Thursday, though the superstar could be back in action as early as Monday when the Dodgers open a series against the Padres.  In the wake of the initial injury, the Dodgers put Betts through a battery of tests to ensure that his foot hadn’t incurred more serious damage, and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes that Betts was walking normally around the L.A. clubhouse yesterday.

The club is naturally being as cautious as possible with the MVP candidate, as it is hard to imagine Los Angeles making a serious postseason run without Betts wreaking havoc in the lineup.  The league leader in fWAR (7.9), Betts is hitting .314/.411/.609 with 38 homers over 610 plate appearances, and his ability to play second base and shortstop has been crucial for a Dodgers team that has been beset by middle-infield injuries since Spring Training.  Fortunately, it looks like Betts will be able to resume his dream season in short order, with an eye towards then helping the Dodgers capture another World Series championship. [UPDATE: Betts is in the Dodgers’ lineup today, leading off and playing second base.]

More from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks had a pair of injury scares in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Cubs, as Ketel Marte fouled a ball off his right knee and Jordan Lawlar was hit in the right hand with a pitch.  Marte’s knock occurred in the first inning and he remained in the game until the seventh, with postgame x-rays coming back negative.  Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Theo Mackie of the Arizona Republic) that Marte might not miss any time as long as his knee didn’t have continued soreness overnight.  Lawlar’s HBP occurred in the 10th inning, so an update on his status won’t come until Lovullo meets with the media today.
  • A mid-back strain has kept Ross Stripling from any MLB action since August 16, but the Giants right-hander told Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group that he is healthy and ready to return from the injured list.  However, Stripling feels “in limbo” and like he’s on the “phantom IL” due to a roster crunch, according to his conversations with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler.  “It’s bad luck of the timing that I’m healthy and Farhan likes the roster that he has.  And I’m just sitting here healthy with nowhere to go,” Stripling said.  Juggling a number of arms on the pitching staff, San Francisco has used an opener-heavy strategy for the last couple of months, perhaps leaving Stripling without a clear role with everyone healthy.  Kapler said the Giants “actually have a pretty good plan in place to have [Stripling] back on the roster sooner rather than later,” but didn’t give any specifics about a timeline.  It could be that the team simply prefers its other pitching options, as Stripling has a 5.29 ERA over 78 1/3 innings while battling back problems for much of the season.
  • The Padres are “viewed as a strong candidate to sign” Jung Hoo Lee this winter, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  Lee has been posting excellent numbers over seven seasons in the KBO League, and only just turned 25 years old last month.  The outfielder’s 2023 season was prematurely ended due to ankle surgery, but Lee is still expected to be posted to MLB teams by the Kiwoom Heroes, his KBO club.  The Padres have traditionally been aggressive on the international market, and they might have an extra recruiting advantage since Ha-Seong Kim is a close friend of Lee’s and a former teammate with the Heroes.

Giants Less Likely To Trade From Rotation After DeSclafani Injury

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Within the past week, multiple reports have emerged about the Giants receiving interest on their starting pitchers. There was some thought that San Francisco could deal a back-end starter for help elsewhere on the roster.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi downplayed that possibility when meeting with the SF beat last night (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Area). Pointing to the recent placement of Anthony DeSclafani on the 15-day injured list (plus an injury to Triple-A righty Keaton Winn), Zaidi said the front office is “kind of in a different position than we were even a week ago” with regards to the pitching. As a result, he stated “it’s less likely we explore something there. It kind of feels like we have just enough pitching to be comfortable and to have some options, but we’ll see what happens over the next day.”

At the same time, it doesn’t seem the Giants are anxious to add rotation depth either. Asked about that possibility, Zaidi noted the club’s success when deploying openers and/or bullpen games. He’s also spoken previously about his comfort with the likes of Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Jakob Junis behind staff ace Logan Webb. At the beginning of July, the baseball operations leader said the Giants were likely only to get involved for potential top-of-the-rotation arms — which are generally lacking in supply this deadline season anyhow.

Still, the loss of DeSclafani deals something of a hit to the group. The righty hasn’t had a great season, carrying a 4.88 ERA with a below-average 18.9% strikeout rate. He trails only Webb and Cobb on the team in innings pitched, though. DeSclafani is battling a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. The team announced last night the righty was headed for a second opinion (relayed by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). There’s a possibility the injury will end his season, though the results of further imaging will obviously determine that.

While the Giants might be quiet on the pitching front, they’ll surely continue working the phones over the next six-plus hours. San Francisco has been searching for middle infield help for some time. Thairo Estrada is headed out on a minor league rehab stint, perhaps reducing the urgency to add there, but there’s still room for an acquisition given Estrada’s and Brandon Crawford’s recent health concerns.

Giants Could Deal From Rotation Depth

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The Giants have drawn interest in their starting pitchers, and while ace Logan Webb rather clearly figures to be off the table in any discussions, San Francisco has a handful of shorter-term options that could make for more realistic trade possibilities. FanSided’s Robert Murray wrote last week that lefty Alex Wood could be an option to change hands, and Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic have now similarly mentioned the possibility of trading Wood or another bulk-innings option as a means of acquiring either middle infield help or prospect depth.

A free agent at season’s end, the 32-year-old Wood has voiced a preference to remain with the Giants (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). However, he’s also made clear he wants to start games, and San Francisco has frequently used him as a bulk option behind an opener. Four of Wood’s past six appearances have come in relief of an opener. He hasn’t reached six innings in an appearance all season and hasn’t recorded an out in the sixth inning since May 26.

The Giants have been careful about limiting the number of times Wood faces opponents in a game, and with good reason. In 2022, when the lefty was deployed solely as a starter, he held opponents to a .241/.300/.344 batting line on the first trip through the order and a .256/.307/.399 slash the second time around. In the 95 plate appearances where Wood turned a lineup over for the third time, opponents exploded for a .326/.368/.573 batting line. He had similarly problematic splits in 2021, too.

Wood could certainly still be of interest to clubs seeking help at the back of the rotation, although he currently looks like something of a buy-low candidate and might need to be swapped out for an infielder in similar standing with his organization. The veteran southpaw has a pedestrian 4.75 ERA on the season, and his 18.8% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, 43.6% ground-ball rate and 1.19 HR/9 mark have all gone in the wrong direction, relative to his 2021-22 output. Wood is pitching in the second season of a two-year, $25MM deal and will reach free agency again following the season. About $4.167MM of this year’s salary remains to be paid out.

San Francisco has other arms to peddle in similar scenarios. Right-hander Ross Stripling and lefty Sean Manaea are both in the first season of two-year deals that guarantee them the same $25MM promised to Wood. Both, however, can opt out at season’s end. Neither has pitched up to his career standards, but both have been considerably better after a tough start to the year. Since returning from the injured list in late June, Stripling carries a 3.64 ERA and a sensational 22-to-1 K/BB ratio in 29 1/3 innings. Manaea, since a full-time move to multi-inning relief work, has 4.03 ERA with a 29.2% strikeout rate against just a 5.9% walk rate. The recent trends are encouraging, but the Giants might still have a tough time extracting present-day value in a trade — and it’s quite possible one or both will forgo his opt-out opportunity at season’s end. That’ll depend largely on how the final two months play out.

It’s worth noting that since reports about interest in the Giants’ rotation depth first emerged, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani was placed on the injured list. An MRI revealed a Grade 1 flexor strain, and DeSclafani is expected to miss a “few weeks” with the injury, at the very least. That, coupled with his prior struggles leading up to the IL placement (21 runs in his past 23 1/3 innings), figures to all but remove him as a trade candidate.

Giants Reinstate Ross Stripling, Place Luke Jackson On 15-Day IL

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The Giants announced that right-hander Ross Stripling has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list.  Stripling will take the roster spot left open by Luke Jackson, who is headed to the 15-day IL himself due to a lower back strain.

Stripling has missed over five weeks due to his own back strain, and the injury layoff might effectively serve as a reset to his first season with the Giants.  Over his first 32 1/3 innings of the season, Stripling posted a 7.24 ERA while allowing 10 home runs.  While naturally a small sample size, these struggles are a big step back from the impressive numbers Stripling posted with the Blue Jays in 2022, when the righty delivered a 3.01 ERA over 134 1/3 frames (and with only 12 total homers allowed).

It isn’t what San Francisco was expecting when it signed Stripling to a two-year, $25MM free agent deal in the offseason.  His early struggles led the Giants to pretty quickly move him to the bullpen, though Stripling found himself back in the rotation due to some other injuries within the starting staff.  Between Stripling’s return and Alex Cobb’s expected activation from the IL later this week, the Giants are getting closer to having their full complement of starting pitchers available.

It remains to be seen if Stripling will indeed continue to work as a starter, or if he might return to a straight relief role or a hybrid of the two in his old swingman role.  The Giants’ choice is probably between Stripling and Sean Manaea as the fifth starter, or the team could use both in a piggyback capacity, or perhaps move both pitchers in and out of the rotation as a floating sixth starter to give the other starters some extra rest when necessary.  This is the type of flexibility San Francisco was looking for in signing Stripling in the first place, though naturally the righty will have to get back on track performance-wise.

Jackson left yesterday’s game due to his back injury, and he’ll now unfortunately head back to the IL after already missing the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The Giants only activated him on May 30, and Jackson pitched well in his first nine appearances of 2023, posting a 2.16 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate over 8 1/3 innings.

Giants Place Alex Wood On 15-Day IL

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The Giants announced a pair of roster moves this afternoon, as the club placed left-hander Alex Wood on the 15-day IL with a low back strain and recalled right-hander Tristan Beck from Triple-A.

Wood joined the Giants in 2021 on a one-year, $3MM deal and posted a solid 3.83 ERA with a 3.48 FIP across 26 starts as the Giants won 107 games en route to an AL West crown. That performance earned Wood a two-year, $25MM deal to return to San Francisco during the 2021-22 offseason. That deal hasn’t gone well to this point, however. Despite much of Wood’s underlying performance staying consistent in 2022, his results took a significant tumble as he posted a 5.10 ERA, 22% below average by measure of ERA+, in 130 2/3 innings despite solid underlying metrics (3.76 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 4.00 xERA) thanks in part to an unusually low 63.9% strand rate.

In 2023, Wood has again struggled to find his footing. He managed just ten innings across three starts before heading to the injured list with a hamstring strain in mid-April that would keep him out for nearly a month. Since returning, he’s struggled to a 6.30 ERA with a 5.14 FIP in 20 innings of work that culminated in a 4 1/3 inning, six run start where Wood allowed eight hits and three walks while striking out just four batters last week. Now, Wood heads back to the injured list where he’ll look to get healthy and hopefully get his season back on track upon his return.

Taking Wood’s spot on the roster is the right-handed Beck, who made his big league debut earlier this season out of the San Francisco bullpen, posting a 4.10 ERA and 4.62 FIP in 26 1/3 innings as a multi-inning reliever for the club. It’s unclear whether Beck will take the ball in Wood’s stead Tuesday against the Rockies, or if that start could perhaps go to Sean Manaea, who was demoted to the bullpen last month but has looked good since then, with a 0.84 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work across four appearances.

Whoever takes the ball on Tuesday, it seems unlikely to be right-hander Ross Stripling, who Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle reports received a cortisone shot after going on the IL and has made some tweaks to his delivery while rehabbing. Sussler notes that Stripling could progress to facing live hitters soon, though that timeline still puts him a ways away from returning to the big league club.

Giants’ Thomas Szapucki Undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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Giants southpaw Thomas Szapucki is undergoing surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome today, the team informed reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com). The club didn’t provide a recovery timetable, though it seems likely the left-hander will miss the majority or all of the 2023 season.

Szapucki has been on the 60-day injured list since Opening Day. He left a Spring Training outing with arm discomfort that apparently is related to the nerve condition. Thoracic outlet syndrome has become relatively common for pitchers in recent years. It’s a condition that typically requires the removal of part of a rib to reduce nerve pressure on the arm.

The track record for pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome is mixed at best. Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly bounced back from the procedure in 2020 to turn in two-plus productive seasons. The likes of Matt Harvey, Tyson Ross and (to this point) Stephen Strasburg haven’t been so fortunate. Harvey and Ross never recaptured anything approaching their pre-TOS form, while Strasburg has only been able to pitch once since undergoing the surgery nearly two years ago due to various setbacks.

Obviously, the Giants and Szapucki are hopeful he’ll be able to recapture his pre-surgery stuff and avoid those kinds of long-term complications. One of four players acquired from the Mets last summer for Darin Ruf (a trade that looks like a coup for San Francisco given the production they’ve gotten out of corner infielder J.D. Davis), Szapucki pitched 10 times in relief down the stretch. He allowed only three runs in 13 1/3 innings, striking out 16 against four walks. Szapucki’s previous major league experience consisted of five innings in which he was tagged for 15 runs in Queens.

The 26-year-old Szapucki had been considered one of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Mets’ system since entering the professional ranks as a fifth round pick in 2015. He’s been a starter for the bulk of his minor league time, including opening 16 of 18 appearances for the Mets’ top affiliate in Syracuse last year. Szapucki will collect major league service and be paid around the MLB minimum rate while he’s on the injured list. He’s controllable through the 2028 season.

San Francisco also provided updates on a pair of players who landed on the injured list this morning. Righty Ross Stripling and catcher Joey Bart each went for imaging. Bart was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain (the lowest severity) of his left groin. Stripling, whose official diagnosis was a lower back strain, has no structural damage and will be reevaluated next week.

Giants Select Patrick Bailey, Designate Cal Stevenson

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The Giants announced a flurry of roster moves Friday, headlined by their selection of catcher Patrick Bailey’s contract from Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco also selected the contract of righty Ryan Walker, designated outfielder Cal Stevenson for assignment and placed both catcher Joey Bart (groin strain) and right-hander Ross Stripling (back strain) on the 10-day and 15-day injured lists. Stevenson’s DFA opens one 40-man roster spot for Bailey, and a second was opened by recalling outfielder Heliot Ramos from Sacramento and placing him on the Major League 60-day injured list with a strained right oblique.

Bailey, 23, was the Giants’ top pick in the 2020 draft, coming off the board with the No. 13 overall selection. He had a decent debut campaign in their system a year later, batting a combined .265/.366/.429 across the Giants’ Rookie-ball, Low-A and High-A affiliates. He struggled at the final of those three stops (.185/.290/.296), but Bailey returned to High-A in 2022 and posted an improved .225/.342/.419 output. It still wasn’t a great showing, but the Giants moved him up to Double-A in 2023 anyhow, and he responded with a .333/.400/.481 slash in 14 games before being promoted again to Triple-A.

Bailey’s bat has again struggled following that quick promotion, but he’ll be aggressively promoted even further now that Bart is sidelined with an injury. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Giants farmhands heading into the season, lauding his defensive aptitude — specifically his receiving and blocking skills (though he also sports a strong 31% caught-stealing rate in the minors). The switch-hitting Bailey has struggled mightily from the right side of the dish in pro ball, hitting below .200 with just two of his 25 career home runs coming from that side of the dish.

Walker, 27, was the Giants’ 31st-rounder back in 2018. He’s never ranked among the organization’s top prospects but has steadily posted above-average numbers throughout his minor league tenure. He opened the 2023 season in Sacramento — his second Triple-A stint — and has come roaring out of the gates with 20 1/3 innings of 0.89 ERA ball. He’s punched out 31.1% of his opponents this season, has induced grounders at a 50% clip and has yet to surrender a home run. His 10.8% walk rate is higher than the Giants would like to see, but command hasn’t been a recurring issue, as evidenced by a career 7.7% walk rate in parts of five pro seasons.

The Giants acquired the 26-year-old Stevenson from the A’s in exchange for cash earlier this year and called him up to the big leagues when Mike Yastrzemski hit the injured list. He’s gone hitless in 12 plate appearances and is now a .145/.259/.188 hitter in a still-small sample of 83 Major League plate appearances. Stevenson’s track record in Triple-A is far, far better. He’s appeared in 101 games at the top minor league level and turned in a .271/.382/.386 line with seven homers while going 21-for-26 in stolen bases and walking nearly as often as he’s punched out (15% vs. 18.2%). He’s primarily been a center fielder but has experience in both corners. The Giants have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

As for the slate of injuries announced by San Francisco, none had been heavily foreshadowed. Bart suited up behind the plate for the Giants’ most recent game — his eighth start at catcher in nine games — and went 1-for-3. He’s hitting just .237/.286/.295 on the season and has yet to solidify himself as the franchise catcher the organization envisioned when selecting him with the No. 2 overall pick back in 2018. Bailey’s ascension to the big leagues could put extra pressure on Bart, who’s in his final minor league option year in 2023.

Stripling signed a two-year, $25MM deal over the winter — one that allows him to opt back into free agency at season’s end. His early performance with the Giants makes that overwhelmingly unlikely. In 32 1/3 frames, the right-hander has been torched for a 7.24 ERA, thanks largely to a stunning 10 home runs surrendered in that time. Stripling excelled with the Blue Jays in 2022, pitching to a 3.01 ERA across 134 1/3 frames and allowing just 12 home runs in that time. It’s not clear at this time whether his back has been troubling him throughout the season, though that would certainly explain some of the right-hander’s astronomical downturn.

Ramos, meanwhile, had gone on the minor league injured list a bit more than a week ago, though there’d been no indication he was looking at an absence of this length. The former first-round pick (No. 19 overall in 2017) has struggled badly in 18 big league games dating back to last season, slashing just .152/.205/.196 in 49 trips to the plate. He hasn’t yet found his stride in Triple-A either, batting a combined .244/.313/.367 in a very hitter-friendly setting. He’s been a bit better so far in 2023, batting .262/.333/.385 in 75 plate appearances there, but his generally lackluster minor league performance has begun to obfuscate his long-term role with the club.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.
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