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Robert Stephenson

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

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The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.

Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.

A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.

The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.

An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.

Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.

Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.

It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.

Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.

That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.

It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.

It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.

New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.

The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.

The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.

@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets, Phillies Interested In Robert Stephenson

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Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson continues to receive plenty of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com listing the Mets, Dodgers and Phillies as clubs with interest in him. The Dodgers have previously been connected to the righty, as have the Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox and Orioles, though some of those clubs have subsequently pivoted to other bullpen moves.

Though Stephenson might not be a household name, the popularity is understandable since Stephenson was one of the best relievers in the game during the second half of 2023. The Rays acquired him from the Pirates in early June and he went on to make 42 appearances for Tampa with a 2.35 earned run average. He only walked 5.7% of the batters he faced in that time while punching out 42.9% of them.

From the start of June to the end of the season, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks had higher strikeout rates among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. But all three of them had higher walk rates, meaning Stephenson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was higher than those three. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR put Stephenson in the #27 slot on the annual Top 50 Free Agents post with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM contract.

That’s a far cry from the six years and $110MM predicted for Josh Hader, which is a reflection of the differences in their track record. Hader has years of dominant relief work on his résumé while a team signing Stephenson would be banking on a few good months. But he has shown glimpses of his potential in the past, having been a first-round pick of the Reds in 2011 and a top 100 prospect as he worked his way up the minor league ladder.

He began his major league career as a starter and struggled, but a move to the bullpen seemed to work for him. He had a 3.76 ERA with the Reds in 2019, had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, then rebounded with a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies in 2021. He struggled early in 2022 but finished strong after a claim by the Pirates. He started 2023 with some arm discomfort and struggled out of the gate, before getting traded to the Rays and having the aforementioned breakout.

That inconsistency would appear to make him more of a risk than Hader, but that will also make him more affordable and perhaps give some more upside to whoever eventually gets him to put pen to paper. If he signs for a guarantee roughly a third of what Hader gets and then can maintain his dominance going forward, it would be a clear bargain. But another swoon in his performance would obviously push things the other way.

If the Mets were to be the club to take the plunge, it would be at least a bit of a surprise. President of baseball operations David Stearns did just say last week that he expected more work to be done on the bullpen, and owner Steve Cohen has shown that he isn’t afraid to throw money around when he wants to get a deal done. But on the other hand, the club has been shifting gears this winter, opting for short-term and depth moves as they do a sort of retool.

The only multi-year deal they’ve given out so far this winter was a two-year pact for Sean Manaea, with that deal having an opt-out halfway through. The Mets have also given one-year deals to Luis Severino Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It seems the plan is to limit long-term commitments as they assess some internal players and decide how to proceed with more aggression next winter.

Beyond their own habits this offseason, there’s the competitive balance tax to consider. Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $318MM right now, well beyond the top tier of the tax, which is $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, all further spending comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning they would have to pay out more than double the amount Stephenson would make. Combining that with their modest operating strategy in recent months, they may not end up with Stephenson on the roster, but they could make it happen if they decided they really wanted to.

As for the Phillies, they’ve had a relatively quiet winter, apart from re-signing Aaron Nola. The 2024 bullpen looks quite similar to the 2023 version, though Craig Kimbrel reached free agency and signed with the Orioles. That relief corps posted a collective 3.58 ERA last year, the seventh-best mark in the league. But relievers are known to be a fungible bunch and the club already has a strong lineup and rotation, leaving the bullpen as an obvious target area for the remainder of the offseason.

José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm all had strong results last year, to varying degrees, and will be back this year. Orion Kerkering had an exciting season, blasting through four minor league levels and then having an enticing MLB debut. Dylan Covey had some interesting results in a low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion while Andrew Bellatti took a step back from a strong 2022 season.

It’s a strong group overall but any club could benefit from adding an elite reliever and bumping everyone down a peg on the chart. The Phillies currently have a CBT number of $252MM, per Roster Resource, which puts them over the $237MM base and nearing the $257MM second line. They finished last year between the second and third line and perhaps would be comfortable ending up in that range again. Crossing the $277MM third line would involve the club’s top pick in the 2025 draft being moved back 10 places, in addition to a higher tax rate. Perhaps the club would view that as a sort of barrier, but they have plenty of room to add a reliever on a significant contract even if that is a line they don’t want to cross.

For clubs that miss out on Hader and Stephenson, some of the other relievers still available include Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson, Héctor Neris and Phil Maton.

Red Sox Reportedly Interested In Robert Stephenson, Amed Rosario

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The Red Sox have made clear throughout the offseason that adding to the club’s starting rotation is their top priority this winter but MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reports that Boston’s pursuit of rotation arms hasn’t stopped them from looking elsewhere, even beyond their reported pursuit of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Per Cotillo, the Red Sox also have interest in righty reliever Robert Stephenson and infielder Amed Rosario, though Cotillo goes on to caution that it’s uncertain how strong the club’s interest is in either player.

Rosario, 28, made his big league debut for the Mets in 2017 and was essentially a league average starter at shortstop in Queens and (after being included as part of the return package for Franciscor Lindor) Cleveland from 2019-22 as he slashed .282/.315/.412 while playing defense that fluctuated from above average to well below average on a year-to-year basis. 2023 was something of a down year for Rosario, as he slashed just .265/.306/.369 with brutal defensive numbers in 92 games for the Guardians before being swapped to the Dodgers midseason, with whom he saw significantly reduced laying time. In all, Rosario finished the season with a wRC+ of 88 and just 0.2 fWAR, the worst full season of his career. Rosario clocked in as the 39th free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $18MM deal.

Despite Rosario’s many flaws, he’d nonetheless be a sensible addition for a Boston club that got the second-worst production in the majors from the keystone last season. Even Rosario’s .263/.305/.378 slash line from last season would be a significant improvement over the .240/.286/.376 slash line Red Sox second baseman posted in 2023, and Rosario performed solidly on defense at second base in 36 games with the Dodgers at the position last year, his first taste of the role at the big league level. While Rosario may not be the most impactful free agent available on the market, the Red Sox would shore up their depth at a clear position of need by adding him and would do so without blocking the club’s top infield prospects such as Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke from playing their way into the big leagues later in the year.

Stephenson, on the other hand, is coming off a much stronger platform season. The 30-year-old right-hander was a first-round pick in the 2011 draft by the Reds and made his big league debut as a starter back in 2016. Stephenson struggled badly in the role for parts of three seasons in the majors before eventually converting to the bullpen full time in 2019, where he found more success. The righty posted a 3.76 ERA (125 ERA+) and a 3.63 FIP in his first season as a full-time reliever, and after being limited to just ten innings of work during the shortened 2020 season was traded to Colorado in exchange for Jeff Hoffman. Stephenson’s first season with the Rockies went exceptionally well, as the righty posted a 3.13 ERA with a 3.63 identical to that of his 2019 campaign.

Stephenson struggled in the 2022 season, which he split between the Rockies and Pirates, and started off 2023 on a rough note by allowing nine runs (eight earned) in just fourteen innings for Pittsburgh. Stephenson’s fortunes quickly turned when the calendar flipped to June and the Pirates shipped him to the Rays, with whom he would have the most dominant stretch of his career. After changing his pitch mix to replace his slider with a cutter as his primary breaking ball, Stephenson struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced during his time with the Rays while walking just 5.7%. The top-level run prevention numbers are just as impressive, as the righty posted a 2.35 ERA and 2.45 FIP across 38 1/3 innings of work with the Rays this year. That strong production led MLBTR to rank Stephenson as the offseason’s 27th-best free agent, with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM deal.

That being said, the fit between Stephenson and Boston isn’t quite as clean as it is with Rosario. The Red Sox boasted a strong bullpen in 2023 anchored by veteran right-handers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, to say nothing of solid campaigns from the likes of Josh Winckowski and John Schreiber. Such a solid mix of righties in the club’s bullpen leaves the Red Sox seemingly unlikely to outbid bullpen-needy teams such as the Rangers, Astros, Cardinals and Cubs for Stephenson’s services. That being said, Cotillo suggests that the Red Sox may see a Stephenson signing as a method to leverage that bullpen depth and work out a trade of Jansen, Martin, or Schreiber. Speculatively speaking, a deal packaging a top relief arm like Jansen or Martin with a young outfielder like Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran could be enticing for a club with starting pitching depth available such as the Astros or Marlins that likely needs to improve other areas of the roster.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

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Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

Rangers, Yankees, Astros Interested In Robert Stephenson

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The market continues to materialize for free agent reliever Robert Stephenson. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rangers and Yankees have shown interest. Chandler Rome of the Athletic reports that the Astros have also checked in on the right-hander.

Along with that trio, the Dodgers, Angels, Cubs and Orioles have been linked to Stephenson at various points this offseason. Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM contract, likely taking them out of a top-of-the-market reliever. The remainder of those clubs could still be involved, although the Angels have taken a lower-cost volume approach to build their middle relief corps.

The bullpen is the biggest question for Texas and Houston, the top two teams in the AL West. Those clubs’ respective baseball operations leaders, Chris Young and Dana Brown, have indicated they’re working with lesser financial flexibility than they’ve had in prior offseasons. Texas finalized a $4.5MM contract with former Brave Kirby Yates this evening. He joins José Leclerc and Josh Sborz as high-leverage righties, although the bullpen still seems the biggest question for the defending World Series winners.

Houston has Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Kendall Graveman as leverage options. Middle relief depth is more of a concern, as each of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. A more affordable middle innings pickup may be a better fit, particularly with the Astros right up against the luxury tax line. To that end, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 tweeted this afternoon the Astros remain in touch with Maton’s camp.

The Yankees already have one of the league’s best relief corps. Building the bullpen has been a consistent strength for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office. Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loáisiga anchor a group that skews heavily toward the right side. While Stephenson could represent something of a luxury buy, the Yankees haven’t shied away from spending on relievers and are clearly in an aggressive win-now mode.

MLBTR predicted Stephenson to secure a four-year, $36MM deal on the heels of a dominant showing with the Rays. He was behind only Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks in the bullpen class among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents. The 30-year-old has an inconsistent career track record but turned in a 2.35 ERA with an absurd 42.9% strikeout rate in 42 appearances after being traded from the Pirates to Tampa Bay in June.

Orioles Interested In Robert Stephenson

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With the Orioles already exploring the high-end reliever market, Robert Stephenson is another name drawing interest from Baltimore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).

The O’s saw plenty of Stephenson when he pitched for the Rays last season, a 38 1/3-inning stint that set a new ceiling on the former first-rounder’s potential.  While Stephenson had posted good results over full seasons (with the Reds in 2019 and with the Rockies in 2021) and for the last month of the 2022 season after the Pirates claimed him away from Colorado, the right-hander had simply been too inconsistent to be a truly reliable bullpen arm.  Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings with Pittsburgh last season before the Rays acquired him in a June trade, and that’s when the turnaround happened.

Stephenson proceeded to post a 2.35 ERA, 42.9% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his 38 1/3 frames for Tampa, suddenly breaking out as one of the best relievers in baseball.  A tiny .194 BABIP undoubtedly contributed to that success, yet the rest of Stephenson’s metrics were so impressive that batted-ball luck alone couldn’t account for his success.  Replacing his slider with a cutter as his secondary pitch worked wonders for Stephenson, as his cutter became one of the more overpowering pitches in all of baseball.

While 38 1/3 innings isn’t a huge sample size by any stretch, Stephenson’s run in Tampa Bay was so dominant that it has made him one of the most sought-after names on the relief market as he enters his age-31 season.  Morosi previously reported that the Cubs, Angels, and Dodgers all had interest in the righty’s services, and the Orioles now become the fourth team linked to the Stephenson market.

MLBTR ranked Stephenson 27th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a four-year, $36MM contract.  Darragh McDonald also picked the Orioles as Stephenson’s landing spot, despite the fact that the O’s have yet to sign any player to even a multi-year contract during Mike Elias’ tenure as general manager.  While nobody expects the Orioles to suddenly go wild with spending this winter, the team’s 101-win 2023 season shows that Baltimore is firmly capable of contending for a championship, and some level of payroll increase is likely necessary to add what might be only a couple of final pieces to the team’s impressive talent core.

The Orioles have showed signs that they’re at least considering some higher-level expenditures.  Baltimore reportedly checked in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and their ventures into the relief market have included links to Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.

Stephenson perhaps joins Hicks as something of a middle ground between the nine-figure, multi-year deal it will likely take to land Hader and the one-year deals Kimbrel or Chapman are likely to sign.  Signing Stephenson, Hicks, or Hader would give the O’s a longer-term relief arm even after Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and putting any of those relievers with Bautista and Yennier Cano in 2025 and beyond makes for a very promising bullpen situation.

Dodgers, Cubs, Angels Among Clubs Interested In Robert Stephenson

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Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson is proving to be quite popular this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. He is drawing interest from the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels, but other unnamed clubs as well.

Stephenson, 31 in February, was one of the lesser known names on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents published earlier this month, where Stephenson was pegged for a four-year, $36MM deal. The righty had struggled with injuries and underperformance at various times in his career but had a well-timed breakout just before he hit the open market.

He was traded from the Pirates to the Rays in early June and then started throwing a cutter instead of a slider, with phenomenal results. He went on to make 42 appearances after heading to Tampa, posting an earned run average of just 2.35 in 38 1/3 innings. He struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in that time, that strikeout rate was fourth in the majors, trailing only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks. Stephenson had a lower walk rate than all three of those guys, making his 37.1% K-BB% ratio tops in the majors in that time frame.

That’s a fairly small sample of work, but Stephenson once had a strong prospect pedigree. He was a first-round pick of the Reds back in 2011 and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight years from 2013 to 2016, getting as high as #19 in 2014. He reached the majors as a starter and posted fairly lackluster results, with an ERA of 5.47 at the end of 2018, having thrown 133 1/3 major league innings in that time.

A move to the bullpen seemed to help, as he made 57 appearances in 2019 with an ERA of 3.76. But in 2020, he missed roughly a month due to a mid-back strain and allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings he was able to pitch in the shortened season. He was traded to the Rockies prior to 2021 and managed to get back on track, despite making Coors Field his home, posting a 3.13 ERA in 49 appearances that year. But 2022 saw him struggle with a 6.04 ERA in 45 appearances for the Rockies before getting claimed off waivers by the Pirates in August.

The most recent season got off to a slow start, as he had some right arm discomfort in the spring and started the season on the injured list. He eventually made 18 appearances for the Pirates this year but showed some rust, walking 13.1% of opponents and allowing 5.14 earned runs per nine. But as mentioned, a midseason trade to the Rays preceded a tremendous step forward.

Now Stephenson seems positioned to cash in. Though his big breakout was just a few months of work, he was one of the best relievers in the league for that time. It didn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had once been a highly-touted youngster and had a couple of seasons of decent relief work recently. Teams have made huge gambles on relievers based on small samples before, with Drew Pomeranz getting four years and $34MM, Robert Suarez five years and $46MM, while Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM. All three of those guys had fairly limited or inconsistent track records but some flashy underlying numbers that the signing club was betting on.

It would take a change in strategy for the Cubs to be seriously in on Stephenson. Since Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of baseball operations, they have stuck to one-year deals for relievers, signing guys like Mychal Givens, Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, Brad Boxberger, Chris Martin, Ryan Tepera and others with mixed results. None of those guys got more than $5MM and getting Stephenson will surely take more than that on an annual basis and for multiple years. But the Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time and may be willing to push a little farther after just missing the playoffs in 2023. The club’s relievers had a collective ERA of 3.85 in 2013, which placed them 13th in the league.

The Dodgers’ bullpen had a 3.42 ERA in 2023, which was third-best in the league, and most of their key relievers are still under club control for 2024. Adding another high-octane arm there would seemingly be more of a luxury buy than a necessity, especially when they have needs in the rotation and could potentially give a massive contract to Shohei Ohtani. But per Roster Resource, they are roughly $80MM below the competitive balance tax and well below previous franchise highs, so maybe they have enough powder dry to address everything on their to-do list and go after Stephenson.

The Angels have often struggled to put together a decent bullpen and that was again the case in 2023, with a collective ERA of 4.88 that was better than just five clubs. They tried to spend some money to address that issue a few years ago by signing Raisel Iglesias to a four-year deal but he was flipped to Atlanta after just a year and a half. The club has been struggling to get above .500 in recent years but has no plans of rebuilding this winter, even if Ohtani winds up going elsewhere.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Rays Activate Shawn Armstrong, Designate Joe La Sorsa

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The Rays have made some moves in between games of their double-header with the Red Sox today, as reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).  Left-hander Joe La Sorsa was designated for assignment and righty Trevor Kelley was optioned to Triple-A.  Taking their places in the bullpen are the newly-acquired Robert Stephenson, as well as another right-hander in Shawn Armstrong.  For Armstrong, he is set to make his 2023 debut after being activated from the 60-day injured list, as he has been sidelined due to a neck injury.

Armstrong’s neck problem surfaced in early March, so he missed quite a bit of Spring Training and thus needed a good amount of ramp-up time once he was healthy enough to pitch.  The veteran reliever made seven appearances with Triple-A Durham and performed well, with a 2.00 ERA over his even nine innings of work.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has always been something of a revolving door due to the team’s penchant for shuttling fresh arms up and down from Triple-A, but injuries and an overall so-so performance from the relief corps (who rank 22nd in bullpen ERA) has led to a bit more shuffling than usual.  The Rays hope that Armstrong and Stephenson can help provide some stability, as the bullpen has been basically the only relative weak link on a team that otherwise looks like a World Series contender.

That said, injuries within the rotation are also a major concern, with Drew Rasmussen out until around August and Jeffrey Springs done for the season due to Tommy John surgery.  In addition to those sidelined pitchers, Josh Fleming is now also set to miss “at least several weeks,” Topkin writes, due to an elbow problem.  Fleming said he felt “discomfort on the outside of the elbow and near his triceps,” and is undergoing an MRI and CT scan today to determine the nature of the injury.

Fleming has a 4.62 ERA over 48 2/3 innings this season, starting three of his 11 games.  While the results have been inconsistent for the groundball specialist, Fleming’s ability to work as a swingman has been helpful to the Rays as they navigate these injuries, though now Fleming himself is looking at a lengthy absence.  Topkin suggests that Tampa might call up Yonny Chirinos to work as a regular starter, and of course Tampa Bay could conceivably turn to their past strategy of openers and bulk pitchers rather than a traditional starter.

La Sorsa’s contract was selected last week, and the southpaw’s brief stint in the big leagues resulted in his MLB debut — two scoreless innings in the Rays’ 1-0 loss to the Cubs on May 29.  The 25-year-old La Sorsa also pitched at the Triple-A level for the first time in 2023, posting a 3.86 ERA over 21 innings in Durham.  La Sorsa has some decent but not standout numbers over his four career minor league seasons, so it’s possible the Rays might be able to sneak him through the waiver wire before outrighting him back to Triple-A.

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