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Injury Updates: Fowler, Alvarez, A’s, Smith

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Here’s the latest on some notable injury situations around the game.  Be sure to check out Roster Resource to see how teams’ depth charts will be impacted by these injuries…

  • Dexter Fowler exited Saturday’s game in the first inning after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a grounder.  The Cubs haven’t yet made a decision on whether or not Fowler will need a DL stint, Joe Maddon told media (including MLB.com’s Cody Stavenhagen).  Fowler has cooled off in June after a blistering start to the season, though he’s still hitting .290/.398/.483 with seven homers over 284 plate appearances.  Jason Heyward is the most likely candidate to take over in center field should Fowler miss time, though with Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella already on the DL, Fowler’s absence would be a big hit to the Cubs’ roster depth.
  • The Athletics have shut down Henderson Alvarez and the righty has a visit scheduled with Dr. James Andrews, manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jane Lee).  Alvarez was pitching in what was supposed to be his final minor league rehab start on Saturday night when he left the game early due to discomfort in his throwing shoulder.  He underwent surgery on that same shoulder last July and hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch since, which led to the Marlins non-tendering Alvarez over the winter and the A’s signing him to a one-year, $4.25MM contract.
  • In better injury news out of Oakland, Melvin said that Rich Hill and Sean Manaea both threw bullpen sessions on Sunday and are on track for, respectively, a simulated game and another session later this week.  Manaea is one of the Athletics’ top pitching prospects while Hill could be a major trade deadline chip if he proves he’s healthy after missing almost a month with a groin strain.
  • Speedy Braves outfielder Mallex Smith suffered a broken left thumb after being hit by a pitch on Sunday and is sidelined indefinitely, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.  More will be known about Smith’s DL timeline when he visits a hand specialist tomorrow.  Smith got off to a very slow start at the plate after making his MLB debut earlier this season and is still just hitting .241/.314/.386 , though he has displayed a good center field glove and is 8-for-8 in his last eight stolen base attempts.

Quick Hits: Mets, Astros, Nats, A’s, ChiSox

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Zack Wheeler returning from 2015 Tommy John surgery and replacing Bartolo Colon in the Mets’ rotation, as originally planned, is now far from a sure thing, writes David Adler of MLB.com. Thanks to Colon’s success, “there’ll be a pretty hefty discussion of what’s going to be best for” the Mets’ rotation when Wheeler is set to come back, said manager Terry Collins. The 43-year-old Colon hasn’t shown any signs of his advanced age, having thrown 80 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball and supported that with a 1.45 BB/9. Wheeler could rejoin the team sometime next month, meanwhile, and a six-man rotation is a possibility when he does. “We’ve been [saying] since Spring Training that when Zack gets here, is it the time when we want to add a guy to the rotation anyway, to give guys some time off? Because the days off are going to be a little bit fewer in the second half. Right now I can’t answer where we’d go,” Collins stated.

Here’s more from around the majors:

  • The Astros demoted early season slugger Tyler White to Triple-A Fresno on Saturday, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. White maintained an OPS above 1.000 for the majority of April, but his production began falling off as the month advanced and continued to plummet in May and June, leading the Astros to send him down. All told, the 25-year-old hit a clearly below-average .211/.296/.386 with seven home runs in 189 plate appearances prior to the demotion. As Roster Resource shows, the Astros are now down to Marwin Gonzalez as their primary first base option. The organization also has highly touted prospect A.J. Reed in Fresno, though he hasn’t produced to expectations in 2016. Former top prospect Jon Singleton hasn’t been great at the Triple-A level this year, either.
  • The Nationals are keeping a watchful eye on the amount of innings and pitches 23-year-old right-hander Joe Ross’ racks up, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post details. Ross has 77 2/3 innings under his belt this year, which is the second fewest among Nats starters. He’s also the only member of their rotation who’s averaging fewer than 100 pitches per start, coming in at 94. Ross amassed 153 2/3 innings between the majors and minors in 2015, and while pitchers often push 200 frames the season after totaling in the 150 range, Janes notes that the Nationals try to avoid that type of one-year jump when dealing with their youngsters. There’s no actual innings limit in place, however, relays Janes (Twitter link). ““His innings are building up, as you can notice, he has the least amount of innings of our starters. We want to take him all the way through September, and hopefully into October,” manager Dusty Baker said of Ross, who has posted a 3.13 ERA, 7.63 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9 this season.
  • The Athletics are being careful with injured left-hander Rich Hill as he works his way back from a right groin strain, tweets Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. The 36-year-old threw a 10-pitch bullpen session Thursday, and there’s no word yet on when the improbable ace/trade chip will return. Hill hit the disabled list on June 9, retroactive to May 30, with the ailment.
  • White Sox center fielder Austin Jackson underwent surgery to debride and remove a portion of the medial meniscus in his left knee Friday, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). Jackson – who went on the DL with a meniscus tear on June 10 – will be on crutches for two more weeks and will undergo a reexamination in four weeks, per Kane. Jackson batted a weak .254/.318/.343 through 204 PAs before the injury. In his stead, the free-falling White Sox have opted for J.B. Shuck in center lately.

Injury Notes: Parra, Hill, Simmons, Billingsley

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The Rockies have placed outfielder Gerardo Parra on the 15-day disabled list due to a high ankle sprain, reports MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter). Parra will be in a walking boot for the next week, but there’s no word beyond that on the length of time the first-year Rox outfielder will miss. Parra, 29, is hitting .263 and showing solid pop (.160 ISO), but he’s drawn just four walks this season (one intentional), which has resulted in a 274 OBP — the ninth-lowest in baseball among qualified hitters. A corresponding move for Parra’s absence hasn’t been announced, but the Rockies have Brandon Barnes, Rafael Ynoa and Raimel Tapia as minor league outfield options on the 40-man roster.

A few more injury situations worth monitoring…

  • Athletics lefty Rich Hill is still about a week away from throwing off a mound, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. With his last outing having come on May 29, it seems likely that Hill will need to make at least one minor league rehab start, which could push his return back into late June or early July depending on the exact timing of his ability to throw off a mound.
  • MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that Braves right-hander Shae Simmons, who is recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery, still doesn’t have a target date to return to the Atlanta bullpen after a pair of setbacks in his rehab. Simmons has had two bouts of shoulder discomfort, and while an MRI has revealed that the shoulder is structurally sound, he’s been diagnosed with tendinitis in his right lat muscle. The 25-year-old Simmons last pitched for the Braves in 2014 when he logged a 2.91 ERA with a 23-to-11 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings.
  • Right-hander Chad Billingsley acknowledged yesterday in an interview with Bruce Hefflinger of the Crescent-News that his elbow injuries may have brought his career to an end. Per Billingsley, doctors told him at the end of the season to rest his arm for seven months, but that time frame has passed and he’s still unable to throw a ball at more than 50 to 60 percent. The concern with ramping up his intensity would be that it could lead to a torn flexor tendon. “If a tendon tore it would be total reconstruction surgery,” Billingsley explained. “If that happens you start flirting with everyday life. But I’ve not totally given up. Most likely it’s career ending. The doctors don’t know anybody that has come back from it. If I do come back, it will most likely be out of the bullpen in some kind of short relief.” Billingsley pitched 37 innings for the Phillies last season but had his season cut short by a flexor strain. He also had Tommy John surgery in 2013 and a second elbow operation in 2014.

Injury Updates: Teixeira, Felix, Hill, Dodgers

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Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, who went on the disabled list last Saturday with a cartilage tear in his right knee, is progressing toward a return and expects to start running next week, he told Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media. Teixeira didn’t reveal when he could rejoin the Yankees, but the fact that it’s a possibility is undoubtedly welcome news for him and the team. The fear when Teixeira suffered the injury was that he’d need surgery. As of now, though, it appears the 36-year-old will avoid going under the knife. In addition to Teixeira, the Yankees have recently lost two other first base options – Chris Parmelee and Dustin Ackley – to injuries.

Here’s more on some big-name players dealing with health troubles:

  • Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is making progress with his strained calf, but there remains no timetable for his return, said manager Scott Servais (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com). Hernandez, who landed on the DL retroactive to May 28, was originally supposed to miss only two starts with the injury. But he’ll now need to go on a rehab stint when he’s deemed healthy enough to return to the mound, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Hernandez posted a 2.86 ERA, 7.57 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9 in 63 innings prior to going on the shelf.
  • Athletics left-hander Rich Hill won’t throw off a mound until the middle of next week at the earliest, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Before hitting the DL on Thursday with a right groin strain, the 36-year-old threw 64 frames of 2.25 ERA, struck out 10.41 batters per nine innings and established himself as an appealing summer trade candidate.
  • Dodgers starters Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will both begin four- to five-start rehab assignments this weekend, according to manager Dave Roberts (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). This will be the second time Ryu has attempted a rehab assignment; in May, he suffered a setback in his surgically repaired left shoulder after making three rehab starts. The 29-year-old southpaw underwent surgery on a torn labrum in May 2015 and hasn’t appeared in a major league game since October 2014. Given the time Ryu has missed, he’ll need to prove himself worthy of a rotation spot, Roberts said. McCarthy, meanwhile, had Tommy John surgery a year ago after racking up just four starts on the season.

Athletics Place Rich Hill On Disabled List

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JUNE 9: The Athletics have indeed placed Hill on the disabled list with a strained right groin, the team announced. The move is retroactive to May 30. Per John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter), Hill has yet to undergo his MRI, hence the lack of additional updates beyond the placement on the disabled list.

JUNE 8: Athletics lefty Rich Hill suffered a setback in his recovery from a groin strain during today’s 35-pitch bullpen session, he told reporters, including Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area (links to Twitter). According to Hill, he felt a pull on the 33rd pitch of his session. He’ll head back to Oakland tomorrow to undergo an MRI, per Stiglich, and manager Bob Melvin conceded that a trip to the disabled list is a strong possibility, tweets MLB.com’s Jane Lee. Similarly, the Bay Area News Group’s John Hickey tweets that a DL stint is likely. Hill has been sidelined since May 29, so the A’s would at least be able to backdate a DL stint to that point, reducing the minimum stay on the disabled list. However, the extent of Hill’s strain won’t be known until tomorrow’s MRI has been reviewed by the team’s medical staff.

The 36-year-old Hill has proven to be one of the best free-agent signings of the 2015-16 offseason, as he’s given the Athletics 64 innings of 2.25 ERA ball with 10.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent ground-ball rate. The one-year, $6MM contract he signed seemed risky at the time for a player with Hill’s injury history and limited recent track record, but he’s already made good on that contract and provided surplus value to the A’s.

A prolonged absence for Hill would deprive the A’s of their most effective starter and could also significantly impact Hill’s value on the summer trade market. With Oakland sitting in last place in the AL West and Hill’s status as a veteran on an affordable one-year deal, the left-hander is a prototypical trade candidate. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently listed him second when assessing the game’s top 10 trade candidates, noting that Hill’s dominance and affordable contract could make him appealing to virtually any team taking aim at the 2016 postseason. However, for a player that has already pitched more Major League innings this season than he has in any season since 2007, durability will be a focal point in any potential trade talks.

Injury Notes: Hill, Gallardo, Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Simmons, Sano

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There’s a lengthy list of names whose injury situations warrant mention tonight:

  • Rich Hill will miss his next scheduled start for the Athletics, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports. He’s dealing with groin soreness, and while that doesn’t appear to be a major concern, manager Bob Melvin made clear that the team “want[s] to make sure he is as close to 100 percent as he can be” before putting him back on the MLB bump. Hill is both a key to Oakland’s hopes and a top potential trade chip, but he’s already recorded more major league innings this season than in any single campaign since 2007.
  • The Orioles may finally welcome back righty Yovani Gallardo late next week, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Baltimore hopes that he’ll be ready for activation after his next Triple-A rehab start on Tuesday, per skipper Buck Showalter. Headed in the other direction is reliever Darren O’Day, who is expected to miss something close to the minimum after hitting the 15-day DL with a hamstring strain.
  • The Mets have updated timetables for two important young players of their own, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (here and here). Righty Zack Wheeler is not expected back until mid-July at this point. That’s a few weeks later than had been expected, but he is said to be progressing as hoped and there certainly isn’t much of a rush from the team’s perspective. The catching position is one where New York could use some help, though, and it’s certainly promising to hear that Travis d’Arnaud is ready to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. That would put him on track to return to the majors within the twenty-day period allowed for position-player rehab stints.
  • Likewise, Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “close” to undertaking his own minor league assignment, as Mike Scioscia tells reporters including MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter). The basement-dwelling Halos badly need Simmons not only to return, but to pick up his pace at the plate when he does.
  • Padres righty Cesar Vargas has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). He won’t even get another check-up for three weeks, so it certainly seems that a fairly lengthy absence is to be expected.
  • Miguel Sano of the Twins has a moderate hamstring strain that will keep him out for longer than the 15-day minimum, per LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (via Twitter). While Minnesota’s hopes for the present season appear to have all but evaporated, Sano remains both a critical future piece and a possible factor in the team’s deadline plans. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe looks like a plausible trade piece, which could lead the way to a return to the hot corner for Sano.
  • Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira left today’s action with right knee pain, as Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees blog reports. He’s headed for an MRI to get a clearer idea of the issue. Teixeira was already dealing with a neck ailment, so the health questions continue to compile for the veteran. If a DL stint is required, New York could conceivably dip into its minor league system for Chris Parmelee or Nick Swisher — either of whom would require a 40-man spot. It doesn’t help that catcher (and occasional fill-in first baseman) Brian McCann is day-to-day with some elbow pain, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets.
  • Three-time Tommy John surgery recipient Jonny Venters is set to be activated by the Rays’ High-A affiliate on Saturday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The 31-year-old was once one an electric reliever for the Braves, but he last pitched professionally way back in 2012.

 

NL Central Links: Pirates, Locke, Cozart, Zobrist

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Some items from around the division…

  • The Pirates have said they intend to use Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl as starters when the three young arms are promoted to the majors, though Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes that if all three are called up this season, the Bucs may not have enough rotation space.  The Pirates have one starter likely to be shifted out (Juan Nicasio) and Sawchik figures Jon Niese’s recent good form has solidified his starting spot.
  • This could leave Jeff Locke fighting for his job, though Sawchik hears from scouts that Locke has some trade value if the Pirates wanted to address their rotation surplus by making a deal.  The six-year veteran has been a decent back-of-the-rotation arm for the Bucs over the last three seasons, capable of eating innings (a career-high 168 1/3 frames in 2015) and keeping the ball in the park (a career 50.7% grounder rate) while not recording many strikeouts.  This season, however, Locke has not pitched very well, posting a 5.08 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and an even 50.0% grounder rate over 51 1/3 innings.
  • Also from Sawchik’s piece, he opines that Rich Hill would make sense as a trade deadline target for the Pirates.  Of course, given Hill’s strong performance and low cost (roughly $4MM still owed this season), the A’s lefty could be one of the deadline’s most sought-after trade chips.  In Pittsburgh’s case, acquiring Hill could allow them to keep Glasnow or Kuhl in the minors until next season.
  • If the Reds intend to trade Zack Cozart, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests that the club should move the shortstop before the deadline rather than wait until the offseason.  Anything can happen to lower a player’s value if you wait too long to make a trade, Buchanan argues, as the Reds discovered with Aroldis Chapman last year.  Cozart’s value may be at an all-time high since, in addition to his usual excellent defense, he’s been an above-average (104 wRC+) shortstop bat for the last two seasons.
  • At age 35, Ben Zobrist is on pace for the best season of his 11-year career and he has been one of the major reasons for the Cubs’ league-best record, Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times writes.  While it’s only two months into Zobrist’s four-year/$56MM contract, the big investment in a mid-30’s player has thus far worked out spectacularly well for the Cubs.  Zobrist enters today’s play hitting .351/.451/.542 with seven homers and 36 runs scored; his OBP leads all qualified Major League hitters.
  • In NL Central news from earlier today, the Cardinals’ punishment for the Astros computer breach scandal isn’t likely to be issued before June’s amateur draft.

Injury Notes: Hill, Ryu, McCarthy, Zimmermann, Ackley

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The Athletics suffered a bit of a scare today as surprise staff ace Rich Hill left his outing early. It’s being diagnosed as only a “real mild groin strain,” though, manager Bob Melvin told reporters including Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area reports (Twitter links). Hill himself suggested that he doesn’t expect to miss a start, let alone require a DL placement, though obviously that’ll depend upon how the injury progresses. Oakland will obviously hope that Hill can keep up his impressive start to the year — a 2.25 ERA through 11 starts, with more strikeouts than hits and walks allowed — in order to help keep the club alive in the AL West or otherwise turn into a prime trade chip.

Here are some more health-related matters of note around the game:

  • Dodgers lefty Hyun-jin Ryu needs to skip at least one start after experiencing shoulder soreness, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. Manager Dave Roberts says that he’s not yet sure what to expect in terms of Ryu’s timeline, in a video tweeted by J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group. “We were kind of thinking middle of June,” Roberts said of Ryu’s anticipated return to the majors. “With this little setback, it pushes that back.”
  • Fellow Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is still making positive strides in his own rehab, as Hoornstra further notes on Twitter. The veteran righty is set to face live hitters tomorrow, marking an important point in his return from Tommy John surgery.
  • Tigers righty Jordan Zimmermann is nearly ready to return from his recent groin injury. Per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, via Twitter, the veteran hurler will start on Friday so long as a bullpen session tomorrow doesn’t give rise to any concerns.
  • Dustin Ackley is out of action for the Yankees and may well be facing a DL stint after suffering a shoulder injury, Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog reports. New York could turn to veterans Nick Swisher or Chris Parmelee, both of whom are playing at Triple-A, Jennings suggests. It appears, though, that the club will look to get Mark Teixeira back in the lineup rather than reaching into the minors for another option at first, per George A. King III of the New York Post. That could allow the team to shore up another area, without implicating the 40-man roster, if Ackley hits the disabled list.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Machado, Teheran, Hill, Pomeranz

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Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper might not be the only $400MM free agent if he reaches the open market in 2018, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link), who reports that Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado could also exceed that total. Machado is a more valuable defender at third than Harper is in right, argues Rosenthal, and is just three months older than Harper (both will be 26 in 2018). Machado, who has slashed a videogamelike .323/.397/.634 with 13 home runs in 209 plate appearances this year, has outhit Harper (.243/.423/.537, 12 homers in 201 PAs) and leads all major leaguers in fWAR (3.4).

Here’s more inside info from Rosenthal:

  • The Braves will only trade right-hander Julio Teheran if they can get a major league hitter of similar quality and age in return, general manager John Coppolella told Rosenthal. “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran,” Coppolella said. Teheran, 25, is off to a strong start this year (2.57 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 2.43 BB/9 in 63 innings) and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2020.
  • Although left-hander Rich Hill looks like an attractive trade candidate, the Athletics could elect to keep the 36-year-old and extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end if nobody makes a satisfactory offer for him. The A’s would then either retain Hill for at least another season at $15.8MM – a significant increase from his current salary of $6MM – or lose him in free agency and receive a first-round pick as compensation.
  • Teams are contacting the Padres about southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Rosenthal, who adds that GM A.J. Preller “remains open-minded” to the idea of moving any of his players. Acquired from the A’s for a pittance during the offseason, Pomeranz has somewhat quietly been terrific this season. With a stingy 1.70 ERA, the 27-year-old is behind only Clayton Kershaw and he ranks 12th among qualified starters in strikeouts per nine innings (10.19), though his lofty 4.25 BB/9 is 10th from the bottom. Pomeranz is currently on a cheap salary of $1.35MM and has two arbitration-eligible years remaining.

Rich Hill: This Summer’s Sought-After Arm

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Imagine a world without Clayton Kershaw. Following baseball would be a lot less entertaining for those who derive joy from watching a dominant player perform at an all-time great level, but at least the sport wouldn’t be devoid of standout left-handers. The likes of Chris Sale, David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill would still be around, after all.

One of those names is eye-catching, and it’s certainly not Sale, Price, Bumgarner, Lester or Hamels, all of whom have long track records of excellence. Keuchel has faltered in the early going this season, but he was stellar in 2014 and followed that up with an American League Cy Young Award-winning campaign in 2015. Quintana, meanwhile, has been one of baseball’s most effective starters since his coming-out party in 2013.

Now we arrive at the 36-year-old Hill, who ranges from four to 10 years the senior of every other southpaw listed above. This is the same Hill who, prior to last September, hadn’t made a major league start since 2009. Between 2007-15, he appeared in the majors with seven different teams – including multiple stints with the Red Sox – and toiled with a slew of minor league clubs. As recently as last August, Hill was in the independent Atlantic League as a member of the Long Island Ducks. The Red Sox then brought back Hill on a minor league deal in mid-August, and they summoned him to the majors a month later. Beginning on September 13th, Hill embarked on a four-start rampage that saw him strike out 32 hitters, walk five and compile a 1.55 ERA across 29 innings. Hill parlayed that resoundingly successful three-week run into the richest payday of his career when he landed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Athletics in November.

Over nearly twice the sample size this year (57 2/3 innings), Hill’s brilliance has continued. Among qualified starters this "<strongseason, Hill ranks eighth in ERA (2.18), ninth in FIP (2.72) and 13th in K/9 (10.13). His 3.60 xFIP is less exciting, albeit still easily above the league-average mark of 4.03, and Hill’s 48.5 percent grounder rate trails only Noah Syndergaard, Kershaw and Danny Salazar among pitchers who have struck out at least 10 batters per nine innings. Amazingly, Hill manages to keep company with their ilk despite neither throwing particularly hard nor possessing an expansive repertoire with which to confound hitters. His 90.4 mph average fastball isn’t exactly imposing, and Hill relies almost exclusively on two pitches. The thing is, opposing offenses can’t seem to figure out either pitch. Hill’s curveball, which he has thrown a little over 50 percent of the time this year, has been the second-most valuable curve in the league to this point, according to FanGraphs. His four-seamer, deployed on 44 percent of pitches, has been the league’s 11th-most valuable fastball, placing him in a class with Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg and Johnny Cueto.

Moreover, Hill hasn’t shown vulnerability against either left- or right-handed hitters. Lefties have slashed a terrible .200/.238/.254 line while facing Hill, and righties (.207/.320/.280) haven’t exactly resembled Mike Trout. All of that amounts to a .237 wOBA, which means Hill is turning enemy hitters into something resembling the toothless 2016 versions of Jose Iglesias (.234) and Alexei Ramirez (.245).

Everything isn’t perfect for Hill, granted, whose BB/9 of 3.28 is too high. He also could face regression from his 79.2 percent stand rate and .287 batting average on balls in play. Further, Hill has the league’s third-lowest swing rate (40.7 percent), so perhaps his numbers will revisit Earth if opposing hitters adjust and start trying to put the ball in play more against him. Of course, when batters have made contact against Hill, not much has happened. His 16.3 percent infield fly rate ranks seventh in the league, and Statcast (link via Baseball Savant) indicates that Hill has allowed an 86.3 mph average exit velocity on batted balls. Kershaw, by comparison, is at 86.4. As evidenced by some of the other names on the leaderboard, surrendering soft contact doesn’t always guarantee results, but it can’t be construed as a negative. Neither can limiting the distance of batted balls, which Hill has also done. At an average of 191 feet, he’s once again right in line with Kershaw, who’s at 192.

All of this analysis leads us to the fact that the A’s have an eminently valuable commodity on their hands as the August 1st trade deadline creeps closer. At 20-28, Oakland is already nine games out of the AL West lead and 7.5 behind in the Wild Card chase. What’s more, the A’s don’t look like a highly talented team destined for an appreciable turnaround. Assuming the club’s losing ways continue, there won’t be a compelling reason for executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst to retain Hill beyond the deadline. Not only is Hill a pending free agent, but he’ll likely be the top starter available over the summer if the A’s shop him. That should only serve to drive up the A’s asking price and enable them to secure something enticing in return for Hill.  The only reason trading Hill wouldn’t make sense is if the A’s intend to extend the lefty, which can’t be ruled out.

The A’s and Bay Area-rival Giants aren’t known for dealing with each other, but Hill would seem to fit rather well in San Francisco’s rotation as it tries to secure an NL West title. The Giants have an outstanding trio in Bumgarner, Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, but they’re looking for answers otherwise. Another go-around with the Red Sox might make sense, too, given the uncertainty in their rotation past Price, Rick Porcello and knuckleballer Steven Wright. Teams like the Royals, Tigers, Rangers and Orioles (one of Hill’s previous employers), among others, look more hard up for rotation help than the Giants and Red Sox, and bear in mind that Baltimore may have created some in-season spending room with a pair of trades earlier this week. It’s also possible an injury (or injuries) will open up a need that doesn’t currently exist on another club’s starting staff, of course, thus leading to another potential Hill suitor.

FanGraphs pegs Hill’s 2016 contributions at $13.6MM in worth, which means the A’s have already more than doubled their investment so far, and – barring an injury to Hill or a drastic, unexpected decline in performance –  they’re primed to continue building on that surplus value over the next couple months. When those months pass and the season reaches the deadline, the A’s will be in position to transform an aging player on whom they took an offseason flyer into at least one quality young piece from another team. Oakland has made some head-scratching decisions in recent years (the Josh Donaldson trade and the Billy Butler signing come to mind immediately), but the move to buy low on Hill is going as smoothly as the club could have hoped, and has the chance to continue paying dividends in future years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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