Rich Hill

NL Notes: Pirates, Melancon, Dodgers, Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | September 24, 2016 at 7:58pm CDT

Given the dearth of quality starting pitchers set to hit free agency during the offseason, it might make sense for the Pirates to use their money on bullpen upgrades if they’re unable to re-sign Ivan Nova, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates and Nova have engaged in extension talks, but the 29-year-old’s late-season breakout could price him out of the team’s range. If so, Sawchik suggests a reunion with soon-to-be free agent closer Mark Melancon, whom the Bucs traded to the Nationals at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old who lacks eye-popping strikeout numbers, Melancon is likely to garner the cheapest contract among fellow impending free agent bullpen aces Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. Melancon made his return to Pittsburgh on Friday as a visitor and received an ovation from its fans, though he suffered his first blown save as a National in a 6-5 loss.

5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2016 at 7:30pm CDT

I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter. A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane. Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus. That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November. Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries. The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet. Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.

His performance has been otherworldly. Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period. Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time. Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement. Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames. Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
His age won’t stop him from getting three years. Hill will turn 37 in March. Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline. However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business. If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well. Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years. Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008. He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand. I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above. It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers). It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy. Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM. Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown? It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy. Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent. So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him. Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series. It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings. A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time. However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter. $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible. The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad. Have a look. Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill? I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.

The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference. Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do. Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).

Dave Roberts On Rich Hill’s Near-Perfect Game

By Connor Byrne | September 10, 2016 at 9:54pm CDT

The Dodgers’ Rich Hill was six outs away from throwing a perfect game against the Marlins on Saturday, but manager Dave Roberts made the difficult decision to pull him after only 89 pitches. On the heels of Hill’s departure, Marlins outfielder Jeff Francoeur ended the Dodgers’ perfect game bid with an eighth-inning single off Joe Blanton.

Roberts explained why he made the move afterward, revealing that there were signs of the nagging blister on Hill’s left index finger returning, tweets Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. Hill, who struck out nine and could have tossed the 24th perfect game in major league history, countered Roberts by telling reporters that his finger felt fine (Twitter link via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com).

“I feel sick to my stomach,” said Roberts, who was on the verge of tears, per McCullough (Twitter links). “I’m going to lose sleep tonight. And I probably should.”

The Dodgers logged a 5-0 win to improve to 80-61 – good for a 4 1/2-game lead in the National League West. However, Roberts added that this particular victory feels like a loss (Twitter link via McCullough). This isn’t the first time Roberts has elected to stop one of his pitchers from a chance at making history, though his call to remove right-hander Ross Stripling from a no-hitter in his April 8 major league debut against the Giants wasn’t nearly as controversial. Stripling had already thrown 100 pitches through 7 1/3 innings, and Roberts said it was a “no-brainer” to take the rookie out of what was a tight game.

Hill, meanwhile, has cruised all year, having compiled a 1.80 ERA, 10.42 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9 in 95 innings, but injuries have robbed him of enjoying a full campaign. While the blister issue has bothered the 36-year-old journeyman since mid-July, that didn’t stop the Dodgers from trading a haul to the Athletics for him and outfielder Josh Reddick before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. LA has reaped the rewards when Hill has pitched, as he has spun 19 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts and two walks in three starts. Ideally for the Dodgers, Hill will serve as an integral component of a playoff rotation in October, and their World Series hopes unsurprisingly factored into Roberts’ move to pull him.

“Nothing in my opinion is worth compromising our opportunity to win a championship,” offered Roberts (Twitter link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

In addition to trying to help the Dodgers win a title, a healthy Hill could pitch his way into a rich contract during the upcoming offseason. Despite his age, limited track record and durability questions, Hill will likely cash in as arguably the best starter in a weak free agent market. Hill was toiling in the independent Atlantic League a summer ago, but he has performed like an ace since a four-start stretch with the Red Sox last September.

Cafardo’s Latest: Hill, Dodgers, Cubs, Twins

By Connor Byrne | September 4, 2016 at 12:31pm CDT

The Dodgers are hoping to sign August acquisition Rich Hill to a multiyear contract before he reaches free agency in the offseason, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. In his time with the A’s and Dodgers this season, the 36-year-old left-hander has dealt with multiple injuries – including a nagging blister – but he has been stellar when healthy. The journeyman has thrown 12 shutout innings in his two starts with the Dodgers, the latest being a six-frame, one-hit showing Saturday. Overall, Hill owns a sparkling 1.94 ERA to accompany a 10.33 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 48.8 percent ground-ball rate and 14.9 percent infield fly mark through 88 innings. Despite his age, durability issues and limited track record, Hill’s next deal should easily outdo the one-year, $6MM pact he signed with Oakland as a free agent last offseason.

Here’s more from Cafardo:

Cubs players and executives will try to convince catcher David Ross not to retire after the season, Cafardo writes. Ross declared in November that this would likely be his final year, and the respected team leader has since slashed a solid .241/.360/.448 with eight home runs in 182 plate appearances while grading as one of Baseball Prospectus’ top framers and blockers. If Ross doesn’t return as a 40-year-old in 2017, the Cubs have a more-than-capable heir apparent in Willson Contreras. They also owe fellow backstop Miguel Montero $14MM next season, the final year of his contract.
The Twins’ search for a general manager could lead them to either Cubs senior vice president of scouting and player development Jason McLeod or former Boston GM Ben Cherington, according to Cafardo. Of course, the club is also looking for a president of baseball operations whose role will include choosing a GM.
Free agent outfielder Carl Crawford is likely to give baseball another try next season, a source told Cafardo, who adds that the 35-year-old could focus on his longtime team, the Rays, and his hometown club, the Astros, as potential landing spots. Crawford has been out of the picture since the Dodgers released him in June. Regardless of whether the four-time All-Star plays again, he’ll make $21.8MM next season to conclude the seven-year, $142MM deal he signed with Boston in 2010.

Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, McCann, Napoli, Ichiro, Colon, Price

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | September 1, 2016 at 6:52pm CDT

The Dodgers intend to pursue reunions with at least four prominent free agents, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Excellent third baseman Justin Turner, relief ace Kenley Jansen, late-breaking lefty Rich Hill, and veteran second baseman Chase Utley would all hold interest to Los Angeles, per the report, though age considerations and the presence of internal alternatives could limit the club’s willingness to top the market for those players. The 28-year-old Jansen may be the highest priority among this group, Heyman suggests. While the Dodgers haven’t exactly broken the bank on relief arms under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, it seems Jansen could warrant an exception given his unbelievable performance level. All said, Heyman suggests it would be surprising if L.A. doesn’t bring back at least two of those four players.

Here are some more of Heyman’s latest notes, from his weekly column:

The Braves and Yankees have tabled any talks pertaining to catcher Brian McCann until the offseason, which may not bode well for New York’s chances to trade him to Atlanta. Heyman writes that the Braves have interest in Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and top free agent catcher Wilson Ramos, whom they’d love to snatch away from the division-rival Nationals. Atlanta is willing to pay half of the remaining $34MM McCann is owed from 2017-18. They’re also looking to add a rotation piece for 2017 and beyond, if not two, as a number of their top-ranked minor league arms are still a ways off from the Majors (which, of course, could make them appealing trade chips in an offseason where the free agent market is devoid of talented starters).
Mike Napoli, who is enjoying a rebound season at the plate with the Indians, has said he’d like to remain in Cleveland, though the two sides aren’t engaged in talks. Napoli’s defense and baserunning have torpedoed his WAR totals, but he’s batted a well-above-average .259/.345/.494 with 29 home runs in his first season with Cleveland. His bat should draw plenty of interest this winter despite the fact that he’ll turn 35 on Halloween.
Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki hopes to play again in 2017 and would like to stay in Miami, per the report. With his club option valued at only $2MM, that may be a fairly easy pick-up for the organization. Playing in his age-42 season in 2016, Ichiro has compiled a useful .294/.365/.366 batting line over 296 plate appearances, continues to rate as an average or better fielder and overall baserunner, and has even cracked double-digit stolen bases for the 16th-straight season.
Another aging veteran who intends to continue his career, says Heyman, is Mets righty Bartolo Colon. It’s not yet clear how his market will develop — we don’t know what level of interest New York will have, or whether the 43-year-old will be looking for multiple years — but there certainly ought to be ample interest given that Colon has provided 158 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA pitching thus far in 2016. Even if the peripherals don’t quite line up with those bottom-line results, he’ll be among the more durable and effective pitchers available on a forthcoming seller’s market for starters.
There’s no sense that the Reds are interested in making a change at manager, Heyman says. Skipper Bryan Price’s contract does expire after the year, but with some positive signs in the second half — excluding a current four-game skid, at least — it seems he could be retained.

Quick Hits: Hill, BoSox, Bucs, Braves, Giants, Dodgers

By Connor Byrne | August 27, 2016 at 11:03pm CDT

Before he joined Oakland on a one-year, $6MM deal last November, the Red Sox tried to re-sign left-hander Rich Hill as a reliever, while the Pirates made a similar offer to the A’s and wanted him to start, reports Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Hill, who revived his career with four great starts as a member of the Red Sox last September, has carried his success into this year. Despite dealing with multiple injuries, the 36-year-old has put up a sterling 2.09 ERA, 10.21 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 49.5 percent ground-ball rate and 15.7 percent infield fly rate in 82 innings. The A’s dealt him and outfielder Josh Reddick to the Dodgers on Aug. 1, thereby turning a cheap investment into three well-regarded prospects.

Dodgers Notes: Kazmir, Hill, Johnson

By Jeff Todd | August 23, 2016 at 12:45pm CDT

Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir is headed for an examination today as he deals with back and neck issues, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. The issue isn’t exactly a new one, but seems to be an occasionally recurring problem. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, Kazmir says that he ends up having trouble picking up the target and keeping his right side closed when it flares up. It’s not yet clear whether a DL stint will be considered or whether there’s cause for broader concern. Regardless, it’s not great news for a Los Angeles team that has dealt with injuries to nearly every member of its rotation at one point or another this year.

Here are a few more notes out of Los Angeles:

The Dodgers are at least finally set to welcome trade deadline acquisition Rich Hill to the rotation on Wednesday, as he is now officially scheduled to start an important tilt against Johnny Cueto and the Giants. Hill has been on the shelf for much longer than had been expected while waiting for a blister to heal and has yet to take the mound since arriving in L.A. over three weeks ago. A blister may not sound like much of an injury, but as Eric Nusbaum explores in great detail for Vice Sports, it’s a major problem for a pitcher.
Dan Johnson, a 37-year-old former first baseman, has joined the Dodgers as a knuckleballing hurler, per an announcement from the indy league St. Paul Saints (with whom he was pitching). He’ll head to Double-A for the Los Angeles organization, where he’ll be reunited with Andrew Friedman — who was the GM of the Rays back when Johnson popped his famous home run for the organization. Johnson had returned to Tampa Bay for Spring Training this year, but wasn’t able to stick as a pitcher. Now, he’ll head to the Double-A level and try for an improbable return to the majors. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN recently ran a story on Johnson that is well worth a look.

Dodgers’ Hill, Kershaw Move Closer To Returns

By charliewilmoth | August 20, 2016 at 4:35pm CDT

The health of the Dodgers’ injury-riddled rotation has improved in the past 24 hours, as a date has been set for Rich Hill’s first start in Dodger blue and Clayton Kershaw had a successful bullpen session.

Hill, acquired at the August 1 deadline from the Athletics, has not yet pitched for the Dodgers due to blister issues. On Thursday, however, he threw 78 pitches in a simulated game, and he’s set to start on Wednesday against the Giants, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. He has not pitched in the big leagues since July 17. Hill was one of the top prizes available at the trade deadline after a brilliant half-season with Oakland, so his return to action could prove to be a major help to his new team.

In news that is perhaps even more encouraging for Dodgers fans, Clayton Kershaw pitched a bullpen session today and reported that he felt “100 percent” (via Plunkett on Twitter). Kershaw, of course, was in the midst of an historically dominant season (with a 1.79 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and an amazing 0.7 BB/9 in 121 innings) before he came down with a herniated disc and headed to the DL in late June. Unlike with Hill, the timeline of Kershaw’s return remains unclear, and he probably still has significant work to do before he’s ready to start a big-league game. If in fact he’s able to pitch a successful bullpen right now, though, it seems reasonable to hope he can contribute by the end of the season and in the playoffs.

Heyman’s Latest: Managers, White Sox, Yunel, Dodgers, Puig, Norris, Rangers

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2016 at 4:22pm CDT

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports kicks off his weekly Inside Baseball column with a look at the job security of a number of managers, noting that Mets skipper Terry Collins, D-backs manager Chip Hale and White Sox manager Robin Ventura could all be on the hot seat, while Braves interim manager Brian Snitker doesn’t seem especially likely to shed the interim label and keep his post. Other names mentioned include Mike Scioscia (Angels), Brad Ausmus (Tigers), Kevin Cash (Rays), Paul Molitor (Twins), Bryan Price (Reds) and Walt Weiss (Rockies), but none from that group seems to be eminently in danger of losing his job even at season’s end, per Heyman.

Some highlights from the lengthy column…

White Sox GM Rick Hahn was far more in favor of a deadline sale than owner Jerry Reinsdorf, Heyman writes, but the Sox ultimately held onto nearly all of their tradeable assets, with the exception of left-hander Zach Duke, suggesting that Hahn ultimately wasn’t given the go-ahead to operate as he might’ve wished. The Sox haven’t put Chris Sale on trade waivers yet, Heyman notes, though that decision is a moot point. He’d be claimed by the first team available — the Twins, as things currently stand — and pulled back off waivers. Chicago had interest in Gary Sanchez when the Yankees were looking at Sale, he adds, though that’s not much of a surprise. Catcher has long been a weak spot in Chicago, and Sanchez is among the more highly regarded prospects in all of baseball.
There wasn’t much chatter pertaining to Yunel Escobar prior to the non-waiver trade deadline (and there’s been less in August), but Heyman writes that Escobar did draw interest in July. However, the Angels like what he’s been able to give to the club offensively, batting .316/.365/.397 in 474 plate appearances. I’m not sure I see the logic behind not being willing to move Escobar but trading a similarly priced and very arguably more valuable asset with the same amount of club control (Hector Santiago) for what amounted to an injured prospect, but perhaps the Halos simply didn’t receive an offer to their liking for Escobar.
The Dodgers “love” Rich Hill and were planning to pursue him last winter until Brett Anderson accepted the team’s qualifying offer, per Heyman. Those two don’t seem like they should’ve been mutually exclusive — the Dodgers went out and signed Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir following Anderson’s acceptance of the QO, after all — but perhaps the Dodgers either couldn’t guarantee a rotation spot or didn’t find the notion of two starters with such recent injury woes to be palatable. Either way, if the Dodgers are as fond of Hill as Heyman indicates, it seems likely that they’ll be in the mix to re-sign him come the offseason.
One executive from a non-Dodgers club opined to Heyman that no team will claim Yasiel Puig if and when he’s placed on revocable waivers and added, “…if they do, they’re going to get him.” Furthermore, Heyman writes that it isn’t likely that Puig will rejoin the Dodgers at any point this season, as he has “turned off” many of his teammates. It seems difficult to fathom that the Dodgers wouldn’t bring him back in the month of September when rosters expand, but we’ll find out in just a few weeks — if Puig isn’t dealt first.
The Padres have yet to put Derek Norris on trade waivers, and Heyman calls him a more likely offseason trade candidate. The Indians showed mild interest but ultimately decided that their internal options were preferable to Norris, who is once again struggling tremendously following a strong showing at the plate from May 1 through the All-Star break. Heyman also notes that the Padres are interested enough in Puig to at least be thinking about it and points out the connection between pro scouting director Logan White and Puig. White was the Dodgers VP of amateur scouting prior to his Padres gig and was one of the execs that recommended Puig to his colleagues.
The Rangers weren’t able to swing a deal for any of the big-name starters they pursued, but that’s in part due to the asking prices they received. The Rays asked the Rangers for Jurickson Profar and other pieces in exchange for Matt Moore, while Rougned Odor’s name was suggested by the Rays in Chris Archer talks and by the White Sox in talks for Chris Sale.

Quick Hits: Tigers, Kinsler, Dodgers, Puig

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2016 at 10:37pm CDT

With the Tigers in Arlington to take on the Rangers, second baseman Ian Kinsler reflected on the November 2013 trade that sent him from Texas to Detroit for first baseman Prince Fielder, whose career ended this week because of neck problems. “It’s the best thing that’s happened,” said Kinsler of the deal (via Jason Beck of MLB.com). “Toward the end of my time in Texas, things got kind of stale, so to be able to be traded to an organization like Detroit really allowed me to kind of reflect on who I was as a player and what I needed to do to improve.” The 34-year-old’s two-plus-season run with the Tigers has been a resounding success. Dating back to 2014, his first year with the club, Kinsler ranks eighth among major league position players in fWAR (13.8) and has hit .287/.331/.441 with 49 home runs in 1,906 plate appearances. Kinsler, who’s slashing a robust .291/.347/.488 with 21 homers and 13 stolen bases this season, regards Detroit as the “perfect place” for him and hopes to finish his career there. Going forward, Kinsler is due a reasonable $11MM next year and the Tigers have a $10MM club option for 2018.

More from Detroit and one other major league city:

Dodgers Triple-A outfielder Yasiel Puig spoke Saturday about the mini-controversy he created earlier this week after posting videos online of him and some Oklahoma City teammates drinking alcohol and shouting curse words into the camera. “I really didn’t know how to use Snapchat,” said Puig (per Doug Padilla of ESPN.com). “I was just playing around with my teammates. I just did something that was wrong.” Puig added that he believes the Dodgers demoted him to the minors to become “a better teammate,” which is his goal. On whether the Dodgers are prepared to sever their relationship with the 25-year-old Puig, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, “I think that’s up to Yasiel. If he chooses to continue to grow as a baseball player and as a man, then he’d be welcome back here.”
The Tigers haven’t gotten great early returns on their investment in right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, whom they signed to a five-year, $110MM deal in the offseason. Not only has the ex-National posted disappointing numbers – 4.44 ERA and a career-low 5.55 K/9 in 97 2/3 innings – he’s also on the disabled list for the second time this season because of back and neck issues. “It’s been the most frustrating year of my career,” said Zimmermann (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com) “Going on two months on the (disabled list) and we still don’t really have a true answer.” Zimmermann missed all of July and then returned to start Aug. 4, but he lasted just 1 2/3 innings and allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks before heading back to the DL. The 30-year-old is currently making progress in his recovery, but there’s no timetable for his return, writes Woodbery.
Another injured starter, the Dodgers’ Rich Hill, could debut for Los Angeles next Saturday, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Hill, whom the Dodgers acquired from Oakland at the non-waiver trade deadline, has been out since mid-July on account of blister problems on his pitching hand. The left-hander is scheduled to make a rehab start Monday with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and he’ll join the Dodgers if that goes well. However, the Dodgers have already had to postpone his first start in their uniform twice. Hill is confident that won’t happen again, though. “It’s healed and 100 percent ready to go and I look forward to getting out there,” said the 36-year-old.

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