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Randy Dobnak

Twins To Sign Randy Dobnak To Five-Year Extension

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TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today provides the details on Dobnak’s extension. He’ll make $700K this season, $800K in 2022, $1.5MM in 2023, $2.25MM in 2024, and $3MM in 2025, his final year of initial team control. The three team options will be worth $6MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, and $8.5MM in 2028 with buyouts of $1MM for 2026 and just $100K for both 2027 and 2028.

MARCH 29: The Minnesota Twins are in agreement with right-hander Randy Dobnak on a five-year, $9.25MM extension, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). The deal includes three club option years with escalators that can bring the total amount up to $29.75MM. The first option year in 2026 will include a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). That leaves $8.25MM to be spread out among the five seasons prior. For each of the three option years, escalators can add up to $1.8MM per season based on innings pitched thresholds.  Dobnak is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.

This definitely rates as somewhat of a surprise, given that Dobnak, 26, will begin the year in the bullpen after spending all of last season in the rotation. While starting the year in a piggyback role might seem like a demotion, the Twins clearly feel compelled enough by Dobnak’s performance to guarantee his role in the organization for years to come. Further, with just 1.047 days of service time, he wasn’t likely to become arbitration-eligible until 2023.

The Twins, meanwhile, get three additional seasons of optional team control at what are likely to be reasonable rates. Both sides benefit from the financial certainty, though the escalators still provide Dobnak with a path to increasing his future earnings. Importantly, this is likely to be Dobnak’s primary source of career earnings: If the Twins choose to buy out the option years, it’s not likely to lead to a higher salary elsewhere, and if the Twins don’t buyout any of the option years, Dobnak will reach free agency for the first time prior to his age-34 season. Still, given his non-traditional path to professional baseball, it’s certainly understandable why a deal like this would appeal to Dobnak.

His rise, after all, certainly qualifies as one of the less likely origin stories in recent season. The Twins signed Dobnak with a mere $500 signing bonus in July 2017 after scouting him exclusively over YouTube, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. He supplemented his income by driving for Uber and excelled through the Twins’ system despite overwhelming velocity or a knock-out put-away pitch. For a 26-year-old who signed out of independent ball, this deal represents life-changing money.

On the hill, suffice it so say that Dobnak has repeatedly overcome his underdog status to provide valuable innings for Minnesota. He was a genuine revelation in making his debut during the 2019 season, posting a 1.59 ERA/3.92 SIERA in five starts and four relief appearances covering 28 1/3 innings. Dobnak’s sophomore season had more ups-and-downs, but he still managed a 4.05 ERA/4.56 SIERA in 10 starts covering 46 2/3 innings. In 75 total career innings, Dobnak has achieved an excellent 58.8 percent groundball rate with a similarly-encouraging 5.7 percent walk rate and less-than-thrilling 15.7 percent strikeout rate.

He certainly doesn’t fit the mold of today’s hurler. His fastball lands in the 31st percentile for velocity and 5th percentile for spin rate. He is in the 13th percentile for whiff rate and fourth percentile by strikeout rate. Nevertheless, he has been better than average at avoiding barrels and coaxing below-average exit velocity while burning worms and avoiding free passes.

The recipe has worked for Dobnak thus far and earned him a long-term home in Minnesota. His four-seam fastball/sinker averaged just 91.4 mph, but strong arm-side run has proved it particularly effective against righties. He re-worked his slider and increased its usage in 2020 to promising results. While he will begin the season in the bullpen, the Twins rotation features a number of veterans with a history of injuries. It’s highly unlikely that the Twins won’t need to access their depth behind Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker. Chances are the Twins’ mustachioed, bespectacled, newly-wealthy right-hander will be called on for bulk innings in 2021 and beyond.

Twins Activate Jake Odorizzi, Option Randy Dobnak

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Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi and catcher Alex Avila are returning from the injured list, Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to report. The club optioned right-hander Randy Dobnak and infielder Travis Blankenhorn, who will be part of its taxi squad, to clear roster room.

The Twins have gone most of the season without Odorizzi, who didn’t debut until Aug. 8 because of a back strain. Then, after three starts, he returned to the IL on Aug. 22 with a chest contusion. So far in 2020, the 30-year-old has only thrown 10 innings and allowed nine earned runs on 14 hits and two walks (nine strikeouts). That isn’t what the Twins or Odorizzi had in mind on the heels of his first All-Star season in 2019, after which he accepted the club’s $17.8MM qualifying offer. Odorizzi could once again have the option of free agency in the winter, but barring an incredible run over the next several weeks, he’ll get there in the wake of a disappointing season.

Odorizzi will take over in the Twins’ rotation for Dobnak, a rookie whose 2020 got off to a tremendous start. But Dobnak’s low velocity and lack of strikeouts have caught up to him recently, as the 25-year-old has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his four outings since Aug. 29. In fairness to Dobnak, however, he has still given the Twins respectable production with a 4.05 ERA/3.97 FIP, 5.21 K/9 against 2.51 BB/9, and a terrific 62.1 percent groundball rate through 46 2/3 innings.

Camp Battles: Twins’ Fifth Starter

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Entering the offseason, the Twins’ rotation consisted of Jose Berrios and, uh … [checks notes] — that’s about it. Minnesota had quite a bit of work to do to fill out the starting staff and immediately received a boost when Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8MM qualifying offer. The Twins brought back another piece of their ’19 rotation when they agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with Michael Pineda, although he’ll miss the first six weeks while serving the remainder of a reduced 60-game PED suspension. The rest of their moves took a bit longer, but by the time the Twins reported to camp in Fort Myers, Fla., they had lockers set up for Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

Minnesota didn’t get the “impact” pitching they proclaimed to be a priority, instead pivoting to give Josh Donaldson the second-largest deal in franchise history (four years, $92MM) after coming up short in their pursuits of Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and (reportedly to a lesser extent) Madison Bumgarner. But they’ll break camp with a rotation consisting of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda and Bailey, with both Pineda and Hill (coming back from elbow surgery) looming as midseason additions.

As for the fifth spot early in the season? The Twins have a handful of options who’ll be considered over the course of the next month, including a series of optionable 40-man roster members and at least one low-risk non-roster invitee…

  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: It’s hard not to consider Dobnak the front-runner, considering the Twins entrusted him with a postseason start last year after Pineda was suspended. That outing, of course, didn’t go well, but Dobnak’s 2019 season was nonetheless an eye-opener. It took the 25-year-old two years and one week to go from undrafted indie league hurler to the Majors. His rapid ascent in 2019 was in no small part due to the combined 2.07 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and near-60 percent ground-ball rate he turned in over 135 minor league innings (three levels). Upon reaching the big leagues, Dobnak turned in a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 28 1/3 innings. He won’t simply be handed the job, but Dobnak went from an unranked prospect within the Twins’ system to a potential rotation favorite in the span of one year.
  • Devin Smeltzer, LHP: Not to be overshadowed, Smeltzer had an impressive 2019 campaign of his own. Acquired in the trade that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles, the 24-year-old turned in a 2.76 ERA with a pristine 104-to-22 K/BB ratio in 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His big league work wasn’t quite as sharp, but in 49 innings, Smeltzer gave the Twins a 3.86 ERA with averages of 7.0 strikeouts, 2.2 walks and 1.47 homers per nine innings pitched. Like Dobnak, he elevated his status within the organization about as much as a prospect can in a year’s time. For what it’s worth, the Twins’ outfield defense is vastly superior to its infield defense, and Smeltzer is a fly-ball pitcher.
  • Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Thorpe, 24, was a notable signing out of Australia back on the 2012-13 international market and twice landed on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects list (2014-15). Tommy John surgery in 2015 wound up costing him all of the 2015-16 seasons, though, which significantly delayed his path to the big leagues. Thorpe has shown huge strikeout ability in the minors, and while last year’s 4.58 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look like much, it was at least a respectable showing in a league that was dominated by hitters. Thorpe averaged better than 11 punchouts per nine frames in Triple-A and struck out 31 hitters in 27 2/3 MLB frames in his debut effort. His bottom-line results in the Majors weren’t great (6.18 ERA), but he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and misses more bats than any of his competition.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (non-roster): The primary veteran NRI in Twins camp, Chacin stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2019, recording a 6.01 ERA and serving up an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. The long ball has never been an Achilles heel for Chacin, though, and he’s only a year removed from a strong showing in Milwaukee (3.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings). In fact, from 2013-18, Chacin notched a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP in 804 1/3 innings. It’ll surprise some to learn that Chacin only just turned 32 years old in January — he debuted at 21 back in 2009 — so a rebound is hardly out of the question. It seems likely that Chacin would need to handily outperform the rest of the field, given that he’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s in the mix even if he’s a long shot.

Whoever wins the competition appears likely to be a stopgap until Pineda returns, but it’s possible that any combination of the candidates will also see action in the bullpen as well. This group will also be the Twins’ first line of defense against potential injuries. However it shakes out, Minnesota seems likely to once again explore the market for higher-end pitching upgrades on the summer trade market. The above-listed candidates, Pineda and Hill give the Twins plenty of depth in the rotation, but expect them to pursue potential playoff-rotation-caliber arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline as well.

Twins Select Randy Dobnak

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TODAY: The Twins officially announced the move.

YESTERDAY: The Twins will select the contract of right-hander Randy Dobnak from Triple-A Rochester on Thursday, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North 1500 first reported (Twitter link). Minnesota already optioned righty Kohl Stewart to Rochester following today’s game. The Twins already have a 40-man roster spot open following last month’s bullpen purge that saw the team DFA Adalberto Mejia, Mike Morin, Matt Magill and Blake Parker in less than two weeks’ time.

Dobnak, 24, hasn’t exactly taken a conventional path to the Majors. Undrafted out of Division-II Alderson-Broaddus College in West Virginia, Dobnak’s first professional outing came with the Utica Unicorns of the independent United Shore League in June 2017. He signed with the Twins less than two months later and began his career in affiliated ball with the Twins’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Appalachian League. Dobnak posted strong numbers there against younger, teenaged competition and enjoyed a solid, if unspectacular 2018 campaign in Class-A Cedar Rapids.

In 2019, Dobnak opened the season in the Class-A Advanced Florida State League but was promoted to Double-A before the calendar flipped to May. By early June, he’d been promoted for his first taste of Triple-A ball. Dobnak hasn’t posted an ERA higher than 2018’s 3.14 mark in the Midwest League at any stop in the minors; in fact, his next-highest ERA at any level is 2.57. Through 125 innings across three minor league levels in 2019, Dobnak has pitched to a minuscule 2.02 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9 and a 59 percent ground-ball rate.

That meteoric rise was enough to land a player who once looked like little more than organizational filler in the No. 30 spot on Baseball America’s midseason update to the Twins’ top prospects, and all he’s done since the publication of that list is toss another 26 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on 12 hits and five walks with 21 strikeouts. While Dobnak still shouldn’t be mistaken for any kind of elite pitching prospect, his ascent from undrafted indie ball player to Major Leaguer in just north of two calendar years is nevertheless remarkable. The Twins currently have Michael Pineda on the injured list, so it’s possible that Dobnak will get a start. If not, he’ll add some length to a Twins bullpen that has been a frequent source of headaches for fans and the organization alike in recent months.

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