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Rafael Devers

AL Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Springer, Jays, Twins

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Some notes from around the American League:

  • The Red Sox don’t appear to have any intent to move Rafael Devers off third base in 2021, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The 24-year-old has been a strong hitter but garnered shaky defensive ratings. By measure of defensive runs saved, Devers has been below-average at the hot corner in each of his four MLB seasons. (Statcast’s outs above average was more bullish on his 2019 work but has pegged him as a negative in three of those years). Since the start of 2017, DRS estimates Devers has been 35 runs worse than the average defensive third baseman, a mark that handily dwarfs the rest of his positional peers for worst in the league. There could be some merit to playing prospect Bobby Dalbec at the hot corner and moving Devers across the diamond. Nevertheless, Cotillo notes that the plan seems to be for Devers to remain at third, with Dalbec the favorite for first base reps.
  • The Blue Jays are generally viewed as one of two frontrunners in the race to sign George Springer (the Mets being the other). With that in mind, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the outfielder’s free agent market. The general expectation entering the offseason had been that Springer would receive a five-year deal in the $100MM – $125MM range. (The MLBTR staff forecasted five years, $125MM). However, Nicholson-Smith feels Springer’s eventual price point may come in well north of those initial estimates. As he points out, Springer’s productivity with the Astros isn’t dissimilar from that of Anthony Rendon with the Nationals. Nearly two years older than Rendon was at this time last year, Springer won’t match the latter’s seven-year term. But Nicholson-Smith speculates that an average annual value approaching Rendon’s $35MM per year salary could be in play for Springer on a five-year contract.
  • Should the Twins pursue a long-term extension with outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff? Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic makes the case for that, examining potential contract terms in a piece that figures to be of interest to Twins’ fans. Extensions for players who’ve yet to make their MLB debut are rare but not unheard of. For instance, the White Sox and Mariners pulled off deals last winter with Luis Robert and Evan White, respectively. Kirilloff played in one of Minneosta’s postseason games last year but still has zero MLB service time, having been added to the roster after the regular season concluded. The 23-year-old ranks as the Twins’ best prospect at Baseball America.

Latest On Red Sox’ Upcoming Roster Decisions

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The Red Sox have 53 players that must be on the 40-man roster or else be cut or exposed to selection in the Rule 5 draft, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. That’s quite the roster puzzle to put together, though it’s not so different from the roster quandaries that every team faces this time of year. Cotillo suggests that Connor Wong, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, and Connor Seabold are the prospects Boston will add to to 40-man roster in the coming weeks. Outfielder Marcus Wilson is also a fair bet to make that list.

Some of the departures are easy to spot, such as free agent to be Jackie Bradley Jr., or DFA candidates like Jose Peraza, , Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Cesar Puello, Tzu-Wei Lin. Dustin Pedroia is also a likely removal, despite the $12.125MM he is owed for 2021.

The fact is, the Red Sox more likely to move on from much more than just 13 players, the number it would take to get their 40-man roster down to 40. They’ll need space to add players, as well. Especially for a team like the Red Sox – given their place in the rebuilding cycle – they are more likely to add a flyer or two, as well as make a selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Of course, arbitration is a particularly tricky process this season, complicating DFA decisions, which the Athletic’s Chad Jennings runs down using projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz as a guide. Rafael Devers has an interesting case as he enters his first season of arbitration. His .263/.310/.483 line with 11 home runs in 57 games this season was somewhere between his best and worst campaign, but without knowing how arbitration panels will handle the shortened season, projecting his salary is anyone’s guess. Swartz pegs Devers as being in line for somewhere between $3.4MM and $6.3MM. That’s quite the spread for one player, which only highlights the struggle roster architects have ahead of them this winter.

MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks

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Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.

The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.

Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.

Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?

(Poll link for app users)

Contract Renewals: Rays, Devers, Olson

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In the wake of a couple of newsworthy pre-arbitration contract renewals over the weekend, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd took to YouTube on Monday to offer a detailed explanation of the process. If you’re interested in checking it out, click the video below:

Here are the some of latest and most notable team-imposed pre-arb salaries for 2020:

  • The Rays have renewed the contracts of outfielder Austin Meadows and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Meadows will earn $578,900, and Yarbrough will get $563,400. In Meadows’ case, it’s possible he and the Rays will work out a long-term arrangement in the near future. There’s interest from both sides in making that happen, after the 24-year-old broke out in 2019 with a .291/.364/.558 line, 33 home runs and 12 steals. For now, Meadows still has five years of team control left; he’s not slated to even reach arbitration until after the 2021 season. Yarbrough has the same amount of control left, but the Super Two player is scheduled for his first trip through arbitration next winter. The 28-year-old was a rather effective member of the Rays’ pitching staff from 2018-19.
  • The Red Sox have renewed third baseman Rafael Devers for $692,500, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. This will be the last pre-arb year for Devers, who’s eligible to reach arbitration for the first of three potential times next offseason. It stands to reason the Red Sox will try to keep Devers around for the long haul, considering his tremendous output last year, but the two parties haven’t engaged in extension talks yet.
  • The Athletics have renewed first baseman Matt Olson on a $603,500 salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Oakland was interested in extending Olson as of last season, but there haven’t been any rumblings about his long-term future since June. If nothing changes by next winter, the big-hitting Olson will head to arbitration for the first of three possible trips.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Blue Jays, Biggio, Yankees, Garcia

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The Red Sox have not broached the subject of a contract extension with Rafael Devers, though the player says he’s open to it, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Of course, that’s a boilerplate response from Devers, and one of the reasons agents are so important for players. Devers, represented by Nelson Montes de Oca of Rep 1 Baseball, can let a shoulder shrug do his talking while rightfully laying contract responsibilities at the feet of his agent. He will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this upcoming season, so he can expect to field extension questions on a regular basis, though neither party has cause to be in any particular rush.After playing a starring role in the Red Sox 2018 World Series win, Devers didn’t disappoint with a .311/.361/.555 line last season with 32 home runs and 115 RBIs. He also notched a league-leading 54 doubles. Devers isn’t set to hit free agency until after the 2023 season. Let’s see what else is going on in the AL East…

  • Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoya  says Cavan Biggio is the Blue Jays second baseman. Still, given how spring training takes shape, Biggio will be keeping his outfielder glove within reach. The particularly contingency to track, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter), is Joe Panik. Outside of those two, it’s not a deep field of second base contenders. Santiago Espinal, 25, hit .317/.360/.433 in his first taste of Triple-A in 2019, certainly showing enough to get a look this spring. Brandon Drury and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also have experience at the keystone. Gurriel is ticketed as the everyday starter in left field, which is a position of equal or greater need for the Blue Jays unless something clicks for a youngster like Billy McKinney or Forrest Wall. Travis Shaw, theoretically, could also see time at second base, but he’s more likely to get his at-bats at first, third, or the designated hitter spot. Ruben Tejada, 30, and Kevin Smith, 23, are also both in camp as non-roster invitees. 
  • Yankees top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia is pushing to fill the injury void in manager Aaron Boone’s rotation, and good as he’s looked thus far, Garcia is unlikely to win a rotation job out of spring camp, per Newday’s David Lennon. The undersized right-hander has done nothing but impress over the last calendar year, and he continues to do so in spring training, keeping hitters off-balance with a power heater. Garcia, 20, won’t be rushed to the majors, despite the injuries. Still, given his progress last year, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him in the majors sometime around his 21st birthday in May. That’s still too aggressive to be an expectant timetable – but given the uncertainty in the Yanks’ rotation and the level of competition in the division, an early debut for Garcia certainly can’t be ruled out. 

Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

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The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 

AL Notes: Devers, Kopech, Martinez, Rangers

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We’re coming up on the three-year anniversary of the White Sox–Red Sox Chris Sale blockbuster. It’s tough to say either team regrets that deal at this point. Sale was instrumental in Boston’s 2018 World Series run and remains one’s of baseball’s best pitchers. Chicago, meanwhile, has reaped the benefits of a Yoán Moncada breakout season that saw him garner a down-ballot MVP vote. Michael Kopech, meanwhile, remains one of the sport’s most exciting young pitchers.

That pair (along with Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz) weren’t the only Boston farmhands the White Sox were targeting. At one point, Chicago asked for Rafael Devers, then a 20 year-old in High-A, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn tells David Laurila of Fangraphs. Suffice it to say, Boston has to feel good about rebuffing Devers’ potential inclusion, as he garnered even more MVP support than did Moncada after a breakout 2019 of his own. There’s no indication Devers talks ever got close, it should be noted, but it’s still an interesting counterfactual given the star player he has since become. Some more from the American League:

  • Speaking of Kopech, Hahn tells Laurila the fireballer is progressing as expected in his return from Tommy John surgery. The 23-year-old, who went under the knife in September 2018, logged a few innings in instructional league and enters the offseason fully healthy, per the GM. The club will no doubt be careful not to overwork the prized right-hander next season, but he seems on track to be a key factor in Chicago’s rotation mix. Kopech had dazzled in Triple-A in the two months preceding his big league call-up.
  • J.D. Martinez opted into his three-year, $62.5MM deal with the Red Sox earlier this month. Rob Bradford of WEEI hears that decision wasn’t an especially difficult one, “hardly coming down to the wire.” That seemingly reflects some tepidness among potential Martinez suitors as agent Scott Boras explored the star hitter’s market in advance of the decision. Speaking entirely speculatively, that could tamp down the likelihood of Martinez opting out after next season (at which point he’ll have to decide on a two-year, $38.7MM deal) or of the Sox finding a buyer if they look to shop Martinez this offseason as a means of cutting payroll. That said, Martinez remains an elite hitter, and other teams’ circumstances and interest can no doubt change in the coming months.
  • The Rangers unveiled a new $12.5MM academy in the Dominican Republic Friday, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. As Grant details, the facility is a significant step forward from previous conditions for Texas’ international signees. The Rangers’ front office believes that improving conditions for their youngest prospects will help them flourish on the field; current MLB first baseman Ronald Guzmán tells Grant that in the team’s previous cramped facility, illnesses spread among players quickly, which could no doubt have an adverse impact on players’ performance. Independent on any on-field benefits they’ll reap, the organization deserves credit for improving conditions for its players.

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

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The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019.  Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball.  There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.

Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup.  To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.  The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price.  Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).

Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season.  It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.”  Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.

Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract.  Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games.  However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season.  Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.

Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement.  Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year.  Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold.  Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.

As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year).  This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.

Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

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Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Machado, Gardner, Nunez, Red Sox

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The Yankees baseball operations and scouting departments are “lukewarm” on free agent Manny Machado, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. Brian Cashman has not been shy about his pursuit of Machado in the past, but the third-baseman-turned-shortstop’s antics during this postseason may have slowed what otherwise could have been a more aggressive pursuit of the infielder in free agency. This isn’t to say the Yankees won’t end up signing Machado, but the questioning of Machado’s hustle and baseball ethic certainly allow the Yankees, as well as other teams, to take a more understandably patient approach in regards to his free agency. Martino adds (via Twitter) that the biggest variable still in play is the Steinbrenner family and whether or not Boston’s World Series win will prompt an aggressive mandate in regards to either Machado or fellow free agent stud Bryce Harper.

But that’s not all that’s happening in the AL East…

  • The Yankees have a $12.5MM option on Brett Gardner with a $2MM buyout for next season. Gardner, the longest-tenured Yankee, expressed an interest in coming back, but it remains to be seen if there will be a room in a crowded Yankee outfield that includes holdovers Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Brian Cashman and his lieutenants have held three days of scouting meetings to craft their strategy heading into the offseason, with  starting pitching figuring to be the priority. Regarding Gardner, the team could buyout his contract and look to bring him back at a discounted rate, but whether the 35-year-old outfielder would be amenable to such an arrangement is unclear. In 2018, Gardner appeared in 140 games, slashing .236/.322/.368 (2.8 rWAR).
  • Not that this would be a surprise, but Boston’s Eduardo Nunez is likely to pick up his $5MM option for next season, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Despite his occasional postseason heroics, it was a tough season for Nunez, who slashed only .256/.289/.388 during the regular season. The .321/.353/.539 Nunez hit in 38 games in 2017 after being acquired midseason feels like a distant memory, but he can still provide some value off the bench as a versatile infielder and right-handed compliment to young stud Rafael Devers.
  • As you ready yourself to dive into baseball’s transaction season, take a minute to read this piece from the Athletic’s Tim Britton about the Red Sox staffer charged with ushering the young players of Boston’s minor league system through each step of their development. Raquel Ferreira is one of the highest ranking women in Major League Baseball and one of the unsung heroes of Boston’s stellar development team. Her title is vice president of major-league and minor-league operations, but that hardly describes the impact she’s had in the twenty years since she joined the Red Sox as an administrative assistant. Ferreira handles everything from managing the logistics of player family travel to walking new players through the basics of minor-league orientation, as she did with Xander Bogaerts when he first signed out of Aruba and thought he had to spend an entire year at each minor-league level. 
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