Pete Alonso

The Mets’ selloff at the trade deadline signaled both a concession of the 2023 season and potentially more of a turn towards the 2025 campaign, though owner Steve Cohen still expects next year’s Mets to be “very competitive” if not “as star-studded a team as it was” in 2022 and 2023.  Beyond just rental players traded, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were also dealt in a pair of blockbuster moves, leading to a lot of speculation about what other moves the Mets might have in store for players who aren’t under longer-term control.

To this end, Pete Alonso’s future in Queens has now become subject to speculation, and it appears as though the Mets at least tested the waters about also moving the first baseman at the deadline.  The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes that Alonso was “dangled” by the Mets, though “it’s unclear how serious the Mets were about trying to trade the first baseman.”  It could be that the Mets were just gauging the market, as “they never came close to” an Alonso trade since no team stepped up to meet New York’s “very high” demands for a return.

Naturally the Mets weren’t going to move the slugger without getting a lot back, as Alonso carried a lot of value in a market short on available bats, let alone premium power threats who are controlled through the 2024 season.  However, it could be that injury concerns might have quieted the market, as Alonso spent only 10 days on the injured list after suffering a left wrist sprain/bone bruise in early June, but then struggled after his quick return.  Getting back to action on June 18, Alonso had only a .549 OPS over the 107 plate appearances following his IL stint.

Alonso has looked a lot more like his usual self over the last few weeks, giving rival teams at least some assurance prior to the deadline that his wrist was recovered.  For the season as a whole, Alonso entered today’s action with a .226/.325/.532 slash line and 35 homers over 453 PA, with solid peripheral numbers except for a minuscule .200 BABIP that has held down his batting average.

In short, Alonso would still be a big trade chip for New York to place on the table this winter, if the club did have designs on eventually moving the slugger.  Alonso has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining so he’ll earn a raise on his $14.5MM salary for 2023, and he’ll be 30 years old on Opening Day 2025, following his scheduled trip to free agency during the 2024-25 offseason.

In a poll earlier this week on MLBTR, 51 percent of readers polled felt the Mets should sign Alonso to an extension rather than trade him or wait until the 2024 season to pursue either course.  The Mets haven’t been shy about locking up key players during Cohen’s time as owner, though Alonso is just about the only prominent Met who hadn’t yet gotten a new longer-term deal.  Of course, this doesn’t mean that Alonso’s status wasn’t or isn’t eventually going to be addressed, especially since Cohen said he wants to “work things out” on an extension, and described Alonso as “an integral part of the Mets.”

The Mets might opt to playing the waiting game on two different fronts with Alonso this winter.  If extension talks aren’t getting anywhere, the Mets could pursue a trade more fervently, with any information gathered during their deadline talks acting as perhaps a stepping stone to an eventual deal in a few months’ time.  Conversely, the Mets could hold off on long-term contract talks with Alonso until the more normal extension negotiation period of Spring Training, and only take that route after first using the winter to more fully gauge the market in case a suitor meets their asking price.

The Mets were among the biggest sellers of the deadline. Impending free agents like Tommy Pham and David Robertson seemed obvious trade targets for weeks. The Mets signaled a larger retool when they dealt Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for prospects, moving on from players they’d envisioned as co-aces of a contending team just a few months ago.

Scherzer told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal yesterday that Mets’ higher-ups had informed him they were shifting their focus toward 2025-26, a key reason the future Hall of Famer agreed to waive his no-trade clause. Owner Steve Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler more or less expressed similar sentiments in response to Scherzer’s comments.

Cohen met with reporters this afternoon and elaborated on the organizational plans. “Max asked me straight: ‘Are you going to be all-in on free agency next year?’ And I couldn’t give him that promise,” Cohen told the New York beat (relayed by Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic). “It doesn’t mean we’re not going to bring in free agents. It may not be to the extent that we did in the past because I’m carrying a lot of dead money.”

The owner added he wanted next year’s team to be “very competitive” but conceded the 2024 club isn’t likely to carry the same expectations as this season’s group. Philosophically, he noted it “won’t be as star-studded a team as it was, but stars don’t necessarily make for wins.”

Unsurprisingly, Cohen didn’t elaborate on what kind of spending range he anticipates for the club going into 2024. It certainly seems as if they’re preparing to scale back from this year’s MLB record levels. New York opened the season with a player payroll pushing $331MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their player spending was nearing half a billion dollars after factoring in their immense luxury tax bill.

Next year’s club has around $204MM on the books and a $219MM competitive balance tax figure, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s before factoring in a $6.5MM club option for Brooks Raley or arbitration salaries — the most notable of which by far is that of Pete Alonso, who’ll be due a raise on this year’s $14.5MM tab.

The Mets don’t have many impending free agents of note at this point. Carlos Carrasco is headed to the open market after a down year. Adam Ottavino and Omar Narváez have player options they seem likely to exercise, although Ottavino could plausibly test the market. They’re going to head into the offseason projected above next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold, but they’d be well below this year’s spending levels.

Of course, they’ll need to tap into free agency, even if it’s not at the top of the market. A projected rotation of Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Tylor Megill, David Peterson and either Joey Lucchesi or José Butto is nowhere near sufficient. They’ll need to sort out the corner outfield after dealing Pham and Mark Canha, particularly if Starling Marte is still battling the migraine issues that have plagued him this year. They could look for an upgrade at designated hitter. Edwin Díaz’s return would be huge for the bullpen, but they’ll need to add middle inning depth.

Given that messaging, it seems those additions will be more modest than the star pursuits of the past two winters. It’s not a truly unpredictable turn of events. Cohen has spoken on a few occasions about considering the club’s recent level of spending unsustainable over the longer haul and talked about building through the farm system. Paying down huge chunks of the Scherzer and Verlander contracts to land Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford demonstrates genuine commitment to stockpiling younger talent. Yet it’s undoubtedly a sharp pivot from the organizational approach of the past couple seasons.

Even if they’re not planning to concede 2024 entirely, the acknowledgement they’ll enter the season with diminished expectations naturally leads to a question about Alonso’s future. The star first baseman is going into his final season of arbitration eligibility. If the Mets view themselves as longer shots for a playoff spot, there’s an argument to shop him this winter (particularly since the upcoming free agent class is so light on impact hitters beyond Shohei Ohtani).

Cohen declined to go into specifics on Alonso’s status but called him “an integral part of the Mets” and said he hopes they can “work things out” on a long-term contract. There’s nothing to suggest talks are ongoing or imminent, though. Cohen pointed out that the Mets re-signed Brandon Nimmo after he’d reached free agency last winter. (Díaz was also within a few days of the open market when he re-upped.) Alonso didn’t feature prominently in trade rumors this week, but concurrent speculation about both extension or trade possibilities figure to be key storylines next winter.