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Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

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With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

  1. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history.  He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance.  Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers.  Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw.  Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark.  The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year.  Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed.  The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward.  A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
  3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs.  But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews.  Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats.  With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
  4. Brandon Belt, Giants:  No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’  Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position.  His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
  5. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame.  With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.

NL West Notes: Goldschmidt, Desmond, Rockies, Hill

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While still technically an above-average run creator (105 wRC+) this season, Paul Goldschmidt is suffering through an uncharacteristically long slump, hitting just .216/.347/.388 with four homers over his first 167 plate appearances.  As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes, Goldschmidt’s soft-contact rate is much higher than his career average, as is his percentage of swinging-and-missing fastballs in the strike zone.  The latter statistic has led to Goldschmidt’s 30.5% strikeout rate, which is far above his 22.4% career mark.  The Diamondbacks first baseman didn’t share any details about his slump to reporters, except to say that he feels physically fine, so an injury doesn’t appear to be the cause of the problem.  Remarkably, the D’Backs are still tied for the NL’s best record despite not having their star slugger hitting at his usual standard, though obviously the team hopes Goldschmidt gets on track soon.

Some more items from around the NL West…

  • Speaking of slumping first basemen, Ian Desmond’s struggles continued today with an 0-for-4 day, dropping his slash line to an ugly .170/.213/.355 over 150 PA.  The Rockies are lacking in viable alternatives at first base, The Athletic’s Nick Groke writes (subscription required), with Ryan McMahon recently demoted due to his own lack of production, Daniel Castro and Josh Fuentes both lacking experience at first base, and prospect Jordan Patterson hitting well but carrying a high strikeout rate at Triple-A.  It isn’t probable that Gerardo Parra returns to first base, as “his defense lacked and he disliked the idea” of the position change in limited action at first last season.  It stands to reason that first base could be a target area for the Rockies at the trade deadline should they remain the pennant race — like the D’Backs, the Rockies have also been competitive (22-19 after today’s loss to the Brewers) despite a lack of production at first base.  A new addition, however, wouldn’t help solve the bigger-picture problem of Desmond, who has been a sub-replacement level player since signing a five-year, $70MM free agent deal with Colorado in December 2016.
  • Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill was removed during the sixth inning of today’s start due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Roberts is still hopeful Hill can make his next start, though another blister is an ominous sign given Hill’s long history of similar issues.  Hill has already spent time on the DL this season due to a cracked fingernail and infection on that same finger.  Though Hill has just a 6.20 ERA over 24 2/3 IP this season, the Dodgers can ill-afford yet another notable injury, especially with the rotation already missing Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • For more from the division, Connor Byrne published another set of NL West Notes earlier today on MLBTR

NL West Notes: Lucchesi, Turner, Souza, D-backs

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The Padres rotation — like other parts of the roster — came with some surprises. As Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, Joey Lucchesi is going to take the ball for the team’s second game of the season. And while veteran righty Tyson Ross didn’t open the season on the active roster, he’s expected to be added in short order, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds on Twitter. Acee notes that there’ll be some competition early in the season to see who’ll be able to stick as a long-term piece in the unsettled rotation mix, noting that Lucchesi has a chance to stay if he performs well.

Lucchesi, 24, was a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft and will be the first pitcher taken that season to appear in the Majors. He ranks ninth in a stacked Padres farm system according to both MLB.com and Baseball America, having turned in a combined 2.20 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 50 percent ground-ball rate in 139 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season.

More from the NL West…

  • Justin Turner is moving closer to swinging a bat, but he’s not yet been cleared to do so, reports Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ third baseman was diagnosed with a nondisplaced fracture in his wrist late in Spring Training after being hit by a pitch, and Turner tells McCullough that he was initially projected to require two to three weeks of rest before being cleared to swing at all. McCullough writes that Turner will be out until at least May, though his exact timeline remains rather nebulous at present. Turner says that upon being diagnosed with the fracture, he was told the recovery could take anywhere from four to 10 weeks depending on how his wrist responds. “There really is no timetable,” says Turner.
  • The Diamondbacks may not need to fill in for outfielder Steven Souza for quite as long as had been feared, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports on Twitter that Souza’s pectoral strain is progressing better than anticipated. That’s promising near-term news for the D-backs, but the team’s long-term outlook remains subject to quite a lot of uncertainty, as Buchanan explores in a subscription piece. The key question, perhaps, is whether the organization can find common ground on a second extension with Paul Goldschmidt. As Buchanan explains, there’s no real indication at this point whether that’ll take place, though CEO Derrick Hall does tell him that “neither side feels an urgency” to explore a new deal at the moment.

NL West Notes: Hand, Padres, Longoria, Goldschmidt

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Here’s the latest from around the NL West…

  • The Padres and Brad Hand’s representatives began extension talks about a week ago, the reliever told Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters.  Those discussions resulted in the three-year, $19.75MM agreement between the club and the southpaw that Hand described as “a life-changing thing.”  From the Padres’ perspective, general manager AJ Preller said that his team is “trying to build a foundation of guys going forward that fit for us and we feel like are winning pieces.”  It would seem like the extension more or less closes the door on the trade speculation that has circled Hand for the last couple of years, though Preller noted that “you always listen on any player at any time.  You’ve got to be open to all different possibilities.”
  • Preller also said that the Padres are looking for a veteran middle infielder that can provide depth for shortstop Freddy Galvis.  San Diego was checked in on Alcides Escobar earlier this winter, and in my view he would appear to still be an option given the lack of known interest in Escobar’s services.
  • Evan Longoria shared some interesting details about his trade to the Giants in an appearance on the MLB Network on Friday (as detailed by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer).  Though Longoria didn’t have any leverage in the form of no-trade protection or 10-and-5 rights, he said he “kind of gave them [the Rays] a short list of teams that I thought would be a good fit for me,” specifically teams that “were going to be committed to winning, year-in and year-out.”  It isn’t known how much, if at all, Longoria’s list factored into Tampa’s decision-making, though the Giants were one of the teams included.  The Cardinals, another club linked to Longoria in trade rumors, were also on the third baseman’s list.  Longoria said he felt a trade was coming after a talk with Rays GM Erik Neander two weeks before the Giants deal was completed.
  • There hasn’t been as much talk about an eventual extension for Paul Goldschmidt as in past offseasons amongst Diamondbacks executives, which makes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wonder if the team is “subtly preparing for the possibility of life without Goldschmidt.  Not that they’re expecting to move on; just that they might have to.”  Goldschmidt is slated to earn $11MM in 2018 and the D’Backs hold a $14.5MM club option for 2019 that seems like a lock to be exercised.  While the first baseman has posted superstar numbers over his career, Piecoro notes that the D’Backs will have to weigh the value of committing a huge salary to Goldschmidt in his age-32 season and beyond, especially when Zack Greinke is already taking up such a big chunk of Arizona’s payroll.

Giancarlo Stanton Wins National League MVP Award

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Even as we anxiously await news as to whether and where he’ll be traded, Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins has been tabbed as the National League’s Most Valuable Player for the 2017 season by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Joey Votto of the Reds came in a very close second; Paul Goldschmidt of the D-Backs rounds out the top three in the National League.

Stanton outslugged the rest of the National League’s batsmen by a healthy margin, launching 59 long balls and posting a .631 slugging percentage. Even as the Marlins fell shy of hopes, and Stanton came up short of his bid for sixty home runs, the big man was rewarded for his startling power output. Of course, he’s also an accomplished overall batter and a quality defender; while many will disagree with the outcome, he plainly was a worthy candidate given the output of the rest of the field.

Truth be told, it was an exceedingly close race — and that was reflected in the voting tallies. Stanton and Votto each received ten first-place votes, but Stanton took one more second and third-place ranking to nudge into the lead. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies joined Goldschmidt in receiving top consideration on multiple ballots, ultimately placing fourth and fifth in the final count.

NL Notes: Goldschmidt, Cozart, Snitker, Panik

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There are “hints” that the D-backs plan to try locking up MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to a longer-term deal, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest NL Notes column. However, the team’s below-average revenues (in part due to the league’s lowest ticket prices) could make it difficult. Goldschmidt will earn $11MM in 2018 and has an easy-call $14.5MM club option ($2MM buyout) for the 2019 campaign on his contract as well. He’ll turn 32 years old at the end of that 2019 campaign, though he’s shown no signs of slowing down to this point in his career; Goldschmidt is hitting .305/.410/.576 with 35 homers and 18 steals in what has been a roughly 6-WAR season thus far. Of course, any long-term deal with Goldschmidt would have to be able to mesh with Zack Greinke’s considerable contract and could also impact the team’s ability to re-sign slugger J.D. Martinez.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Heyman also reports that the Reds may try to retain Zack Cozart in 2018 and beyond after holding onto him in July and August. Per Heyman, the Reds set an extremely high asking price on Cozart, asking the Orioles at one point for top outfield prospect Austin Hays in return. That’s a steep ask for a Cozart rental, considering Hays broke out with a .329/.365/.593 slash and 32 homers in 128 games between Double-A and Triple-A this season before making his MLB debut in September.
  • The Braves are still weighing whether to retain manager Brian Snitker beyond the 2017 season, as Heyman notes in his column and as Ken Rosenthal details at greater length for The Athletic (subscription required and strongly recommended). Per Rosenthal, the Braves don’t need to make a decision on Snitker’s 2018 option until five days after the World Series, so they still have some time to mull things over. Snitker tells Rosenthal that he’d like to continue managing for “a while,” though he says he’s not sweating the decision as it’s largely out of his control. Heyman cites a source in reporting that Atlanta is “leaning toward” making a change, though nothing’s been set in stone yet, and it’s possibly that Snitker’s option is simply exercised without any extension being issued. Rosenthal, meanwhile, takes a deeper dive into some of the reported tensions in the Braves organization and how they impact the managerial decision.
  • Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders whether Giants second baseman Joe Panik is part of the team’s future or will instead be an offseason trade chip. Panik, Baggarly reasons, is one of the Giants’ most desirable big league pieces given his lack of a long-term contract and the fact that he’s only just reaching arbitration eligibility. However, the Giants also didn’t see Christian Arroyo take the step forward that they hoped, making it perhaps tougher to deal from their more proven infield depth. Giants fans and those interested in the offseason trade market are encouraged to check out Baggarly’s well-reasoned take on the situation in full.

NL Injury Notes: Imhof, Goldschmidt, Ahmed, Carpenter, Fedde

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Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer sat down with former Phillies pitching prospect Matt Imhof to discuss the tragic accident that derailed his once-promising career and left him without his right eye. His journey offers worthwhile lessons to everyone, especially those with a passion for baseball.

Here are the latest updates on injury situations from around the National League:

  • The Diamondbacks are awaiting the results of an MRI on the right elbow of star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Goldschmidt himself suggests he’s not too concerned about the discomfort he has experienced in the joint — he describes it as tightness that recedes once he has loosened up — though the team is surely wise to take a proactive approach with such a key player.
  • Meanwhile, Diamondbacks infielder Nick Ahmed will undergo surgery after suffering a fractured wrist, as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweets. Odds are, then, that he’s done for the year after twice suffering broken bones on pitched balls. The 27-year-old will qualify for arbitration this fall, though his injury-shortened season and lack of offensive output will tamp down on his earning power quite a bit. In just over three hundred total major league games, Ahmed has established himself as a quality defender but owns only a .226/.273/.345 batting line with twenty home runs.
  • The Cardinals are dealing with a few position-player injuries, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Infielder Matt Carpenter will likely undergo an MRI and may also require an injection to deal with ongoing shoulder issues. It seems those problems have nagged Carpenter all season long, though it became a particular problem during yesterday’s contest and may now require some rest. Outfielder Tommy Pham is also dealing with some shoulder difficulties, though he’s not expected to miss time at this point.
  • Nationals righty Erick Fedde will be shut down for the rest of the season after he was diagnosed with a strained flexor mass, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. Though GM Mike Rizzo explained that the injury isn’t all that worrisome — the strain occurred away from the elbow joint, which is not damaged — the club decided the time was right to put its best pitching prospect on ice. Fedde, 24, is generally seen as the organization’s top pitching prospect, though he has gone through some struggles over the second half of this season since moving up to Triple-A and then on to the majors. Depending upon the club’s offseason moves, Fedde could challenge for a rotation or bullpen spot next spring.

NL Notes: Diamondbacks, Braves, Mets, Stubbs

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The Diamondbacks drafted both Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock in 2009 and the two have been teammates for years, but they might not remain in the same organization for long, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. If the Snakes don’t contend this season — and that doesn’t appear particularly likely after a disappointing 2016 — the team could begin considering dealing Goldschmidt, Pollock or Zack Greinke. Dealing Goldschmidt or Pollock would give the Diamondbacks a head start in a rebuild, an organizational route of which new GM Mike Hazen seems to see the benefits. “Picking first is a lot better than picking fifth,” Hazen said earlier this month. “From a long-term building standpoint, there are clear advantages to being in those positions over a period of time. The majority of your superstars, by and large, are going to come in those areas of the draft and the international market.” Here’s more from the National League.

  • Much of the Braves’ Opening Day roster is set, but there are still jobs available on the bench and in the bullpen, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. Chaz Roe, who is out of of options, has the inside track on one of the remaining bullpen jobs, although fellow righty David Hernandez (who the Braves recently added on a minor-league deal) is another possibility. Paco Rodriguez and Kevin Chapman are competing to join the ’pen as lefties, while veteran hitters Matt Tuiasosopo and Mel Rojas Jr. could also have shots at making the team, particularly, it would seem, if the Braves opt to go with five bench players instead of four. The Braves will also keep an eye on the trade and free-agent markets.
  • The Mets are hoping for fourth outfielder Juan Lagares to soon recover from the oblique strain he suffered this weekend, and therefore do not seem overly interested in Drew Stubbs, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets. The veteran Stubbs opted out of his minor-league deal with the Twins yesterday. Assuming he’s healthy, Lagares seems set to back up a Mets outfield of Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce.

NL Notes: Diamondbacks, Phillips, Cards, Mets

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If the Diamondbacks endure another non-contending season and decide to enter a rebuild, they might have to consider trading their two best players – first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and center fielder A.J. Pollock – writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Goldschmidt and Pollock are running out of team control (three and two years remaining, respectively), and it would behoove the Diamondbacks to somehow replenish a farm system that ESPN’s Keith Law ranks as the majors’ worst (subscription required/recommended). While moving the two bona fide stars would certainly help Arizona beef up its prospect pool, new general manager Mike Hazen unsurprisingly told Piecoro that such drastic measures aren’t under consideration at this point. “We’re not really there yet in terms of sort of long-term strategic thinking,” Hazen said. “We like this team. We’ll see where this team goes. If we have to make some adjustments, we will.”

More from the National League:

  • The Cincinnati-Atlanta trade that Brandon Phillips blocked in November would have resulted in a better return for the second baseman than the one the Reds have since received from the Braves, reports Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). Phillips finally agreed to waive his no-trade rights Sunday, largely because he’s going to get more playing time this year with the Braves than he would have with the rebuilding Reds, observes ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required/recommended).
  • Even though Jedd Gyorko led the Cardinals with 30 home runs last season, he’ll enter spring training as the underdog to Jhonny Peralta in the team’s third base competition, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peralta was far less productive than Gyorko in 2016, when he batted .260/307/.408 with eight homers in 313 plate appearances, but a hand injury may have been a key reason for the normally steady contributor’s drop-off. “My hope is that he is 100 percent,” GM John Mozeliak said of Peralta, who’s going into a contract year. “My hope is that he has a little spring in his step. And my hope is that he can either give us a lot of flexibility in the infield or be our anchor at third. He’s one guy who has the ability to hit home runs and hit with power.” Ultimately, despite both Gyorko’s output last season and Mozeliak’s optimism regarding Peralta, Matt Carpenter could see more time at third than either of them if first baseman Matt Adams reemerges as a quality performer this year, posits Goold. For now, Carpenter is penciled in as the Cardinals’ starter at first.
  • The Mets “absolutely” believe in corner outfielder Michael Conforto, GM Sandy Alderson told Steve Serby of the New York Post, but the executive didn’t mention the 23-year-old when discussing the club’s outfield. “If Bruce is in right and [Curtis] Granderson and [Juan] Lagares in center, Cespedes in left — Cespedes is an excellent left fielder, Granderson did a nice job for us in center last year, Lagares is excellent, and Jay Bruce I would say he’s league average at least,” said Alderson. Given the amount of major league-caliber outfielders the Mets have, Conforto’s status is “something we’d have to work out in spring training,” Alderson acknowledged. “I don’t think that Michael is the kind of player that we want to be sitting on the bench.” Conforto has two minor league options remaining, so he could again go to Triple-A Las Vegas after embarrassing opposing pitchers there last year (.422/.483/.727 in 143 PAs). The Mets will give the left-handed-hitting Conforto some reps at first base and center field this spring, tweets Newsday’s Marc Carig, though they already have an established, lefty-swinging option manning first in Lucas Duda. And Granderson and Lagares will occupy center, as Alderson mentioned.

Paul Goldschmidt Switches Agencies

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Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has hired Excel Sports Management as representation, reports Robert Murray of Today’s Knuckleball. The three-time All-Star was previously a client of ISE Baseball (formerly Relativity Baseball) and agent Joe Sambito, who won’t follow him to Excel, according to Murray.

Goldschmidt, an eighth-round pick in 2009, became one of baseball’s preeminent stars during his second full season – 2013 – when he hit .302/.401/.551 with 36 home runs, stole 15 bases and accounted for 6.2 fWAR in 710 plate appearances. Since the beginning of that season, Goldschmidt has slashed .306/.414/.548 in 2,248 trips to the plate and accounted for 20.8 fWAR, the fourth-highest total among major league position players. The 28-year-old right-handed hitter is in the midst of yet another excellent season, having batted .293/.420/.505 with 14 homers and 10 steals through 365 trips to the plate.

Goldschmidt’s success has come under the eminently team-friendly contract he signed before the 2013 campaign. Back then, Goldschmidt put pen to paper on a five-year, $32MM pact with a $14.5MM club option for 2019. If Goldschmidt ultimately plays out his deal, including the option, he won’t be eligible for free agency until the age of 32.

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