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Marlins, Twins Have Discussed Trade Possibilities Involving Pablo Lopez, Max Kepler

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The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.

Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.

López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.

That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.

The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.

Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.

Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.

Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.

That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.

Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.

Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.

Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.

One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.

Marlins Letting Teams Know Four Of Their Starters Are Available

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The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has often come up in trade rumors, but according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Lopez is just one of four starters that the Marlins are telling other teams are available in trade talks. The other three are Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. It’s been widely reported for quite some time that the Marlins were willing to tap into their pitching surplus in trades, but this sheds more light on who the Marlins are willing to trade and who’s seemingly off limits.

The Marlins have a solid stable of controllable pitching with ace Sandy Alcantara and youngster Braxton Garrett joining that quartet, as well as a group of young arms including Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez and Max Meyer who should be able to help the big league club within the next few seasons. As such, there’s definitely a surplus of pitching in Miami and the team could well look to offload an arm to bolster their offense.

Last summer, it was reported that the Yankees came close to a deal that would’ve sent Lopez to the Bronx in a deal involving Gleyber Torres. It was also reported this winter that the Marlins and Rockies discussed a deal involving Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers, so it’s not secret that Miami is listening on some of their starters. Notably, both of the two players the Fish would have acquired in those trades are second basemen, but they’ve recently gone out and picked up Jean Segura to bolster their infield group.

Instead, the team could look to turn one of their starters into an outfielder. The Padres have been linked with adding another starter, and have reportedly shown a willingness to trade Trent Grisham, so there could be a match there. It’s also been reported that the Pirates are seeking young pitching to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so if the Marlins are really keen to make a big splash perhaps floating Cabrera as part of a deal would get Pittsburgh’s attention.

With six years of control remaining, Cabrera, 24, would certainly be an attractive acquisition for pitching hungry teams. A former top-100 prospect, he tossed 71 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball for the Fish last year, with a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate.

Luzardo, 25, is hitting arbitration for the first time this year as a Super Two player, and is projected (via Matt Swartz) to make $2MM in 2023. He put together a 3.32 ERA over 100 1/3 innings with a very strong 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. He missed about two-and-a-half months last season with a forearm strain, but a full season of his output would make for a quality starting pitcher. The left-hander is under control for four more years.

Rogers, 25, was excellent in 2021, but took a step back in 2022. The southpaw made the All Star game in ’21 during a season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball. That was followed up by 107 innings of 5.47 ERA ball in ’22, as Rogers saw his strikeout rate drop by about 6% and his walk rate jump by a percentage point. He also saw his HR/FB rate jump from just 5% in 2021 to 13.2% last year. Rogers is under control for four more seasons, and is due to hit arbitration for the first time next winter.

Lopez, 27 in March, was a steady presence in the rotation for the Fish last season, hurling 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball over 32 starts. He may not possess the upside of the three younger pitchers, but Lopez has been a consistent pitcher for a few years now, finishing up with ERAs of 3.61, 3.07 and 3.75 in the past three years. Projected to make $5.6MM through arbitration this year, he’s under control for another two seasons and would slot nicely into the middle of a lot of rotations around baseball.

Marlins, Rockies Talked About Trade Involving Edward Cabrera, Brendan Rodgers

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The Marlins boosted their offense yesterday, adding Jean Segura on a two-year, $17MM deal to play third base. Yet it appears they are still looking for hitting, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and at some stage discussed possible trade scenarios with the Rockies, with Edward Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers the players talked about. It’s not known whether those talks occurred before or after the Segura signing, although it seems probable they came beforehand.

Cabrera, 25 in April, made a solid 14 starts for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 3.01 ERA. He surely benefited from an opponent’s BABIP of just .207, and sure enough advanced metrics such as FIP had him pegged at 4.59. While he did strikeout batters at an above-average 25.8% clip in ’22, his walk rate of 11.3% was below the league average. Nonetheless, it was still a big step forward from a difficult seven starts Cabrera made in 2021 for Miami. Pitching prospects often take a bit of time to settle in at the highest level, and Cabrera is a former top-100 prospect who’s made just 21 big league starts and is yet to reach a full year of service time, so there’s still plenty of time for him to reach his full potential.

The Rockies could certainly use a boost to their rotation, as not one of their projected starting five had an ERA under 4.50 last year, and three finished north of 5.00. Acquiring a young starter like Cabrera would have given them a huge boost in the rotation, particularly over the long term.

The Marlins have been speculated as a possible trade partner for one of their starting pitchers. There were reports at the deadline that the Yankees came close to acquiring Pablo Lopez in a deal involving infielder Gleyber Torres. That didn’t come to fruition, and while it’s not known how far these discussions between the Rockies and Marlins got, it’s interesting to note that it was a similar framework in terms of the Marlins seeking an infielder to headline the return for one of their starting pitchers.

In this case, Rodgers, 26, is a former top-100 prospect himself who had a breakout year in 2022. The bat largely stayed in line with his career numbers, as Rodgers slashed .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, but he amassed a staggering 22 Defensive Runs Saved at second base, the second most in all of baseball (behind only Ke’Bryan Hayes). That’s quite the jump forward from the previous year, when Rodgers was worth -5 DRS. That saw Rodgers claim his first Gold Glove award.

The acquisition of Rodgers would have given them arguably one of the best defensive group of infielders in the game, as he would have joined Joey Wendle, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Though it’s worth noting that both Wendle and Rojas have drawn trade interest themselves (Rojas and Wendle).

The exact makeup of a deal, or even how far along in discussions the two teams got, is unknown but it seems unlikely it would have been a straight swap. Rodgers is first year arbitration-eligible and is projected to take home $2.7MM in 2023 (per Matt Swartz’ predictions). He can be controlled for three more seasons, while Cabrera is under control for another six.

Given the signing of Segura, it’d seem unlikely for Miami to seek any more additions in the infield without trading someone away, but they could shift their attention to moving some pitching to get outfield help. The Padres are reportedly open to moving Trent Grisham, while Pittsburgh has reportedly been seeking a top, young starter to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so those two teams as well as a myriad of others could, speculatively, make sense as trade partners for Miami.

Padres Open To Trade Offers On Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim

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The Padres have had another significant offseason, adding Xander Bogaerts on an 11-year megadeal and bringing in Matt Carpenter via two-year guarantee. Those players lengthen a lineup that already had plenty of talent, with Bogaerts in particular building on an existing area of strength.

San Diego certainly didn’t need another infielder. Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth would’ve made for an effective pairing up the middle, while Manny Machado has third base secured. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be back from his performance-enhancing drug suspension by the end of April and was already expected to see plenty of outfield work in deference to Kim and Cronenworth. As things stand, the Bogaerts signing pushes Kim to second base and Cronenworth over to first while keeping Tatis in the outfield on most days.

That overflow of up-the-middle talent is an enviable “problem” to have, as it affords them the ability to turn to the trade market. To that end, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are open to discussions on both Kim and center fielder Trent Grisham. Lin adds the organization isn’t interested in parting with Cronenworth and suggests a deal involving Grisham might be more likely than one than sends Kim elsewhere.

Grisham has spent the last three years in San Diego. Acquired from the Brewers in the deal that sent Luis Urías and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee over the 2019-20 offseason, he immediately stepped in as the Friars primary center fielder. Grisham had a great first season, collecting 10 home runs and stolen bases apiece with a .251/.352/.456 line while playing in 59 of the 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He looked like a budding star, but his offense has regressed in the past couple seasons.

The lefty hitter put up a .242/.327/.413 slash in 2021, with that production checking in right around league average. He took another step back this past season, posting a .184/.284/.341 mark through 524 trips to the plate. Grisham connected on 17 longballs and walked at a robust 10.9% clip but had the worst batting average of any hitter with at least 500 plate appearances. While there’s some amount of misfortune in the meager .231 average on balls in play he mustered, there were also plenty of worrisome underlying indicators.

Grisham struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances, the worst clip of his career. Only Randal Grichuk had a lower line drive rate than Grisham’s 13.5% mark (minimum 500 PA’s) and his hard contact percentage was middle-of-the-pack. A left-handed pull hitter, Grisham could stand to benefit somewhat from the forthcoming shift limitations, but it’s not likely to be all that significant a boost unless he trims his strikeouts and/or improves his contact profile.

To his credit, the 26-year-old remained a valuable part of the San Diego lineup even during a disappointing offensive year. Grisham played more than 1100 innings in center field and earned a second career Gold Glove for his work. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as eight runs better than average, while Statcast pegged him as 12 runs above par. Grisham’s glove has been a plus throughout his career, as he combines excellent speed with quality reads and solid arm strength.

Despite the career-worst offensive season, Grisham would have a decent amount of value on the trade market. His defense raises his floor and he’s shown prior glimpses of quality work at the plate. With three seasons of remaining arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $2.6MM salary next year, he’d have plenty of appeal in a market starved for quality center field options. There are no remaining free agent center fielders who’d likely play every day on a contender. The trade market is similarly without many obvious candidates. The Royals would listen to offers on Michael A. Taylor and the Twins are known to be open to dealing Max Kepler. Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have maintained they won’t budge off a lofty asking price.

Teams like the Red Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Reds and Marlins are among the clubs that have sought center field help. That’s also true of the Dodgers, though it’s hard to imagine San Diego trading anyone to their chief competitors in the NL West. Lin relays that San Diego has interest in Marlins starter Pablo López and speculates the Friars could look to market Grisham to Miami in a deal for rotation help, though there’s no indication the sides have actually had those discussions to this point.

Kim should have even stronger trade appeal, as he’s coming off a better offensive season. After struggling in his first MLB campaign, the former KBO star hit .251/.325/.383 across 582 plate appearances in year two. Kim picked up 11 homers and 29 doubles while striking out in only 17.2% of his plate appearances. He also stole 12 bases in 14 attempts.

Like Grisham, Kim provides sizable value on the defensive side. Pressed into primary shortstop duty by Tatis’ injuries and suspension, the 27-year-old looked like a Gold Glove-caliber middle infielder. DRS credited him as 10 runs above average in a little less than 1100 shortstop innings, while Statcast estimated him as five runs better than average. Kim had also rated as a plus defender at second and third base during the 2021 campaign.

Upon making the jump from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Kim landed a four-year, $25MM guarantee. He’s due a modest $17MM over the next two seasons (including a buyout on a 2025 mutual option) and is slated to head back to free agency following the ’24 campaign. That’s excellent value for a player coming a season as strong as Kim’s and in his prime years.

As with center field, the middle infield market has dried up considerably at this stage of the offseason. Assuming Carlos Correa finalizes a deal with the Mets, the top remaining free agents are Elvis Andrus and players like Hanser Alberto and José Iglesias. Obvious trade possibilities are again sparse. Players like Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo or Nick Madrigal could be dealt but aren’t necessarily likely to move. Boston, Atlanta, Minnesota, the Angels and the White Sox are among the teams that could seek out upgrades at one of the middle infield spots.

There’s no urgency for San Diego to deal either Grisham or Kim, of course. Both players are affordable and currently penciled into everyday roles. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged as much last week, telling Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic the team’s “intention” was to retain their current position player group thanks to “the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.” Lin’s report suggests they’re not completely committed to that course of action, though, at least if offered a chance to upgrade elsewhere on the roster.

The back of the rotation is something of a question mark, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo slated for the fourth and fifth spots behind Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. Only Musgrove is guaranteed to be around beyond next season; Snell and Darvish will be free agents at the end of the year, and Martinez and Lugo could opt out of their multi-year deals (although only if the team first declines a two-year option in Martinez’s case). The club could also consider ways to upgrade at catcher or add another bat to the corner outfield/first base mix.

The organization’s farm system has thinned considerably in recent seasons as they’ve packaged a lot of their depth for impact trade acquisitions, perhaps leading them to be more amenable to deal from the MLB roster in the right circumstance. Young catcher Luis Campusano would seem to be a candidate for such a move on paper considering his strong prospect pedigree, but Lin relays that trade interest in the 24-year-old isn’t especially strong at this point.

Latest On Marlins’ Free Agent, Trade Possibilities

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The Marlins have shown interest in free agent starter Johnny Cueto, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Miami joins the Blue Jays and Reds as clubs known to have touched base with the veteran righty’s camp.

Miami’s an odd fit for a rotation pickup. They’re already deep in starting pitching, with Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Jesús Luzardo on hand as options behind Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. There’s enough talent on the pitching staff the Fish have apparently looked for ways to swap out a starter for offensive help this offseason, though nothing has come together on that front.

Any interest in Cueto would seem to be contingent on dealing one of their current starters. He’s sure to find a rotation spot somewhere after a solid 2022 season in Chicago. The 36-year-old (37 in February) made 25 appearances and threw 158 1/3 innings this past season. Cueto posted a 3.35 ERA, based largely on his plus control. He only walked around 5% of opponents, maintaining the quality strike-throwing ability he’s shown throughout his career. He struck out a below-average 15.7% of batters faced while averaging just above 91 MPH, but his pitch-to-contact approach served him well this year.

That solid showing is likely to earn him a raise over this past season’s $4MM base salary. A pitcher-friendly home ballpark would be a particularly strong fit. Cueto has shown himself capable of succeeding in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (to say nothing of his run of high-end play early in his career with Cincinnati), but he saw just 7.7% of fly balls surrendered clear the fences this year. He’s unlikely to replicate a rate that extreme, but a more spacious park could help mitigate the effect of any regression in that department.

Marlins Park certainly qualifies, though there’s no room in the Opening Day rotation for Cueto at present. Morosi suggests an earnest free agent pursuit may be more of a fallback possibility in the event they align with another club on a López trade. There haven’t been many substantive rumors on the righty this offseason, though reports have suggested Miami would consider trades of anyone other than Alcantara or top prospect Eury Pérez. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees were linked to López at this past summer’s trade deadline. New York has since acquired Frankie Montas and signed Carlos Rodón, but the Dodgers still make sense as a speculative fit for a rotation addition.

As part of a reader mailbag, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes that the Rockies have shown modest interest in López but don’t seem to be heavily pursuing him. Colorado entered the offseason seeking starting pitching help. They’ve yet to make any acquisitions of note outside of the bullpen. Yet Saunders suggests that López’s remaining two seasons of arbitration control may not align with the Rox’s target, as they’re facing an uphill battle to compete for a playoff spot in the next couple years.

Other teams with a more immediate path to contention figure to show stronger interest in the 26-year-old hurler. Dealing López would be one way to add to a lineup that was among the league’s worst in 2022, though the Marlins could also dip into the lower tiers of free agency in that regard. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported last night (Twitter link) that Miami had shown interest in Brandon Drury, but the righty-hitting infielder instead agreed to terms on a $17MM deal with the Angels.

Marlins Won’t Trade Sandy Alcántara, Open To Other Offers

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Ahead of the Winter Meetings, the Marlins have made it clearly known that Sandy Alcantara will not be traded, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman adds that the Fish will listen to offers on “almost anyone” else.

Fresh off a unanimous Cy Young award, Alcantara seemed likely to remain with Miami through the offseason, with today’s news reaffirming that notion. Nevertheless, the Marlins have previously displayed a willingness to trade from their rotation surplus, sending Zach Thompson to Pittsburgh in exchange for catcher Jacob Stallings. However, the organization has made it clear that the 27-year-old, who is signed through the 2026 season with a 2027 team option, is off the table.

With that being said, the Marlins still boast a plethora of talent that may be moved as the team looks to boost the offensive production.

Pablo Lopez will likely be the next name floated in trade scenarios. The righty pitched to a strong 3.75 ERA in 180 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%), walk (7.2%), and ground ball rates (46.7%) during the 2022 season. Career-wise, Lopez has pitched 510 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 47.8% ground ball rate. Lopez, who turns 27 years old in March, is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. As of late July, the Marlins had yet to engage in extension discussions with Lopez’s management and were listening to trade offers for the hurler.

Jesus Luzardo is another potential Marlins’ trade candidate. Arriving from Oakland halfway through the 2021 season, Miami sent the hard-throwing lefty down to Triple-A to work on his mechanics before bringing him back to the major league roster as a starting pitcher. Despite missing over two months due to a left forearm strain, the 25-year-old was able to pitch 100 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball, with a hefty 30.0% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 40.7% ground ball rate. As a super-two eligible player, Luzardo has four years of team control left before reaching free agency. However, despite his strong 2022 season, Luzardo stumbled to a 5.66 ERA in 154 1/3 innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, losing his role with the A’s staff before joining Miami.

Trevor Rogers is yet another talented and controllable Miami starter. A rookie All-Star in 2021, Rodgers experienced a sophomore slump with the Fish, pitching to a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings. Perhaps most troubling is that the lefty saw a sharp decline in his strikeout rate compared to his 2021 campaign (28.6% in 2021 compared to 22.2% in 2022). Nevertheless, the 25-year-old is only one year removed from a 2021 season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball, finishing runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting to Reds’ second baseman Jonathan India. Rogers is only arbitration-eligible after the 2023 season, having missed this year’s super-two cutoff.

Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are other starting pitchers that may find themselves the subject of trade talks as the offseason continues, but both of them have less than a year of service time and will likely factor into the Marlins’ future plans.

Latest On Potential Trade Scenarios For Marlins’ Rotation

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It’s been widely reported over the past several months — really, dating back to last offseason — that the Marlins are open to dealing from their wealth of starting pitching depth in order to solidify other needs on the roster. That’s led to righty Pablo Lopez, who drew strong interest from the Yankees and the Dodgers at the trade deadline, being one of the most heavily speculated-upon trade candidates of the 2022-23 offseason. However, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes in his latest Marlins notebook column that the team may be more open to moving left-hander Trevor Rogers than Lopez.

The 25-year-old Rogers is coming off a down year — nowhere near the excellent season enjoyed by Lopez — but would appeal to other teams in a different capacity. While acquiring Lopez would likely require trading a bevy of prospects for a pitcher at his value’s peak, Rogers is more of a buy-low option on the heels of a down 2022 season. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Jonathan India in 2021, when he tossed 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball with a hefty 28.6% strikeout rate and a solid enough 8.4% walk rate.

The 2022 season was a brutal sophomore campaign for Rogers, however. Back spasms and a lat strain prompted a pair of IL stints for the 6’5″ lefty, and his results when healthy enough to take the mound didn’t even come close to that brilliant rookie output. In 107 innings, Rogers worked to a 5.47 ERA that was more than double his 2021 mark, and his strikeout rate fell by more than six percentage points (to 22.2%) while his walk rate crept up to 9.4%. After allowing just 0.41 homers per nine innings in 2021 (1.1% of his opponents took him deep), Rogers yielded an average of 1.26 homers per nine frames (3.1%).

In addition to the discrepancy between the pair’s 2022 seasons, Lopez is under team control for only two more years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in his second year of arbitration. Rogers, meanwhile, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons. Both players would be highly appealing to the majority of clubs seeking rotation help this offseason, but a win-now club might feel better about plugging the veteran Lopez into its rotation, as he’s coming off a career-high 180 innings and has worked to a combined 3.52 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) over his past three seasons.

As was the case last offseason, it’s not a lock that the Marlins will trade any of their current big league rotation options. Many similar rumblings echoed throughout the 2021-22 offseason, but at the end of the day, the most notable arm the Fish had moved was right-hander Zach Thompson, who’d been their fifth starter. That the Marlins are open to moving Lopez and perhaps even more open to moving Rogers is notable, but that hardly means they plan to shop either pitcher and trade him for the best offer.

Rather, Miami appears likely to again set its sights on solidifying its center field vacancy this offseason. That didn’t transpire last year, and the team instead relied entirely on in-house options — most of whom were corner outfielders that were clearly miscast in center. Jesus Sanchez, former top prospect JJ Bleday and Bryan De La Cruz all logged significant time in center, but none of that trio drew particularly strong defensive grades for their efforts there.

Looking ahead to 2023, Miami will have to hope for better results from Avisail Garcia in one corner outfield spot and could again look to the trio of Sanchez, Bleday and De La Cruz as outfield components — though this time more likely in whichever corner is not occupied by Garcia. Jackson writes within his column that the bulk of Jorge Soler’s playing time will likely come at designated hitter next season, so he looks like an occasional outfield option, at best.

While center field is perhaps the most obvious area of need, Miami could also use upgrades at a variety of positions. Third base seems like another possible focus, and Miami lacks an obvious first baseman aside from Garrett Cooper, who’s been a candidate to be traded himself dating back to the deadline.

Of course, most fans salivate over the mere notion of 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara being made available in a trade, but with four years remaining on an affordable contract, there’s little to no hope of such a scenario actually transpiring. Alcantara is a veritable lock to be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2023, and if Lopez isn’t traded, he’ll presumably slot into the second spot in the rotation. The Marlins will also lean on a resurgent Jesus Luzardo and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera — a longtime top prospect who broke out with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year.

Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett are the favorites to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation, particularly with top prospects Max Meyer (Tommy John), Jake Eder (Tommy John) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) all recovering from surgery. Right-hander Eury Perez reached Double-A at just 19 years of age in 2023 and could be another rotation option before long; he’s widely considered to be among the ten best prospects in all of baseball and, unsurprisingly, is considered squarely off the table (as is the case with Alcantara), per Jackson’s report.

Marlins Open To Trading From Rotation Surplus Again This Offseason

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As last year’s offseason was getting started, reports emerged that the Marlins were considering trading from their stock of young starting pitchers in order to bolster their position player mix. In the end, they did trade Zach Thompson as part of the Jacob Stallings trade, though stopped short of a more headline-grabbing deal.

It seems that strategy is still in play, with Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reporting that the club will again look to swap some pitching for some more offense. The report lists ace Sandy Alcantara and the club’s top prospect Eury Perez as the two “untouchable” arms on the team, with the others apparently available for the right price.

In addition to the Thompson trade, there were a few other ways in which the club’s rotation surplus was reduced in the past year. Prospect Max Meyer made two starts before Tommy John surgery put him out of action for the rest of this year and potentially all of next year as well. Sixto Sanchez has continued to deal with shoulder issues, not having thrown in a game since 2020. Elieser Hernandez struggled enough that he got bumped to the bullpen and later optioned to the minors.

Those setbacks aside, the club still has a mix that includes Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett, Daniel Castano, Nick Neidert, with the report listing Lopez, Cabrera and Rogers as logical trade candidates. It also says the club would consider dealing prospects to a rebuilding team in order to get MLB-ready players. Though Perez is apparently not on the table, Jake Eder and Dax Fulton are mentioned as possibilities.

Lopez, 26, is no stranger to trade rumors, having been frequently mentioned both as someone who could be moved and as someone garnering interest around the league. It was reported last week that the Marlins and Yankees had discussed a deal prior to the deadline that would have seen the Fish acquire Gleyber Torres and infield prospect Oswald Peraza, though the Yanks apparently balked at the deal. There’s no real hurry for the Marlins to deal him, as he can be controlled through the 2024 season via arbitration. He’s in his third straight strong season, registering a 3.66 ERA through 25 starts this year. Perhaps most importantly, he has stayed healthy and put aside some concerns after he missed some of last year with shoulder issues. He’s making $2.45MM this year and will get a raise for next season via arbitration, though he will still be plenty affordable and should find lots of interest from other teams.

The 24-year-old Cabrera would make for a very different trade chip, having much more control but less of a proven track record. He just made his MLB debut last year and missed about six weeks this season due to elbow tendinitis. He only has 15 MLB starts on his ledger so far but has shown promise in that time, registering a 3.71 ERA in his young career. He came into this year with just 40 days of MLB service time but was optioned in the spring and didn’t get recalled until June 1, which should lead to him coming just shy of the one-year mark at the end of this season, even if he remains in the big leagues for the rest of the campaign. That means he should still have six years of control beyond this one, though he is in his final option year, which will mean he will need to hold a spot on an MLB roster starting next year or else be designated for assignment.

Rogers, 24, broke out last year with a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts but has regressed here in 2022. He has a 5.85 ERA through 19 starts and has been on the IL for over a month due to back spasms. He should still hold appeal given his previous showing and four remaining years of control, but he’ll certainly have diminished trade value compared to a year ago.

Eder, 23, was a fourth-round draft pick in 2020. The lefty made 15 Double-A starts last year with a 1.77 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. He’s out for this year and might be limited in 2023, though the Marlins are hoping to deal him to a rebuilding club, who may not be so concerned about the short-term outlook. Fulton is also a left-hander but much younger, turning 21 in a couple of months. He was a second round pick in 2020, having since climbed up to Double-A. Between High-A and Double-A this year, he has a 4.05 ERA across 102 1/3 innings.

Whether the club can work out a deal with will of course depend upon lining up with another club. A team with designs on immediate contention would likely be more interested in Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez, while a rebuilding club would lean towards Eder and/or Fulton. It will also depend on what that theoretical other club has to offer the Marlins in return. As Jackson and Mish note in their report, the Marlins will be using the final weeks of the season to audition certain position players and evaluate their future roles. JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz, Jerar Encarnacion and Peyton Burdick are all listed as players trying to secure jobs on the 2023 team. How they fare in those auditions could have an impact on who the Marlins look to target in trades to improve their lineup. The team as a whole has been about 12% below league average at the plate this year, as indicated by their 88 wRC+, a mark that places them 26th in the majors.

Florida Notes: Marlins, Rays, Lopez, Rojas, Yankees, Franco, Baz, Cooper

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The Yankees were known to be targeting Pablo Lopez prior to the trade deadline, and reports suggested that Gleyber Torres was involved in the talks between New York and Miami.  One trade proposed by the Marlins would’ve seen Lopez and Miguel Rojas head to the Bronx in exchange for Torres and infield prospect Oswald Peraza, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports, but the Yankees rejected the offer.

Anthony Volpe is considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, so while Peraza is a top-100 staple in his own right, he could’ve been more of an expendable piece in trade talks.  New York was still resistant to moving Peraza, and while the club was reportedly open to moving him in a possible Frankie Montas trade, the Yankees ended up landing Montas from the Athletics for another trade package that didn’t involve Peraza.  The inclusion of longtime Miami staple Rojas is an interesting wrinkle, as presumably the Marlins offered Rojas as a replacement for Torres in the Yankees’ infield mix, and perhaps sought to give the veteran a chance at winning a ring with a contender.  It makes for an interesting deadline what-if, and any of these players could potentially be part of different trade talks should the two teams rekindle negotiations this winter.

Some rumblings from the Marlins and Rays, as we check in on both Sunshine State teams…

  • After some fielding drills and batting practice on Wednesday, Wander Franco told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that “I feel super good right now and [am] getting better,” in regards to his injured right hand.  Soreness in that hand led Franco to be taken off his rehab assignment earlier this week, and the Rays will continue to monitor Franco’s injury before deciding when to restart his minor league work.  Speaking with Topkin and company today, Rays manager Kevin Cash said Saturday would be the earliest date for Franco to resume his rehab assignment.  Franco has played in only 58 games this season due to a quad strain and then hamate-bone surgery, and his return would be a big boost to a Rays club that is trying to secure a wild card berth.
  • In other Rays injury updates from Topkin, Josh Fleming and Matt Wisler each started minor league rehab assignments within the last two days, while J.P. Feyereisen will throw a live batting practice session before the team decides on his rehab assignment.  This is a good development for Feyereisen, who had a brief setback due to shoulder soreness earlier this month.  Shane Baz also told Topkin and other reporters that he’ll start a throwing program on Monday, but it remains to be seen if Baz can get fully ramped up in time to return to big league game action before the season is over.  An elbow sprain sent Baz to the 15-day IL and then the 60-day IL retroactive to July 14, so it will still be a few weeks before he is even eligible to be activated.
  • Garrett Cooper is two games into a minor league rehab assignment and could be back on the Marlins’ active roster as soon as Friday.  Manager Don Mattingly told reporters that Cooper was slated to play three games as part of his recovery from a stint on the seven-day concussion IL, and Cooper is no longer experiencing any symptoms.  Cooper’s IL placement was retroactive to August 17, and it doesn’t look like he’ll miss much more time beyond the seven-day minimum.

Yankees Notes: Severino, Lopez, Torres

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On Monday, shortly after the Yankees acquired Frankie Montas, they moved Luis Severino to the 60-day injured list due to his lat strain. That seemed to shine a light on why the acquisition of Montas was so important to the club, as the severity of Severino’s injury wasn’t publicly known at the time. Given that the Yankees don’t expect him to be back before mid-September, it made sense why the rotation upgrade was desired.

However, it seems that the seriousness of the injury came as a surprise to Severino himself, with Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reporting that Severino was unhappy with the transfer. “I was not happy. I was not expecting that,” Severino said of being moved to the 60-day IL.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke to Kirschner about the miscommunication. “When we tried to walk through it with a calendar, (Severino) just didn’t want to see it,” Cashman said. “He just wants to pitch. He’s not capable of pitching yet, and it’s going to take time to get him back on line. We both wish he was healthy right now. We both wish he was capable, but he’s not.”

Manager Aaron Boone tells Kirschner that the Yankees still plan to stretch Severino out as a starter when he returns. That suggests that Severino might need some kind of rehab once his lat has healed, to build back into a starter’s workload. Perhaps the confusion arose from the fact that Severino might start throwing again in about a month but then would need a few weeks to get fully geared up. A minor league rehab assignment for a pitcher can last as long as 30 days. “It just comes down to this is the program that gets him back and you can’t speed up or you risk breaking him again,” Cashman said. “That’s not in anyone’s best interest.”

Though it remains to be seen how Severino’s return progresses, the fact that he was surprised by his transfer suggests that he doesn’t expect to be out longer than the 60-day minimum, allowing him to return just in time for the final postseason push.

Elsewhere in Yankee rotation news, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald relay that the Yankees and Dodgers both pushed the Marlins for a Pablo Lopez trade, with the Yankees getting “closest” to a deal. Though the full trade scenarios that were discussed aren’t know, the report says that Gleyber Torres was mentioned.

It’s unclear if it was the Yankees or the Marlins that wanted to include Torres in trade talks, but it’s understandable why the Marlins would want him. Torres is hitting .257/.312/.466 on the year for a wRC+ of 120. He’s also making just $6.25MM this year and can be retained for a further two seasons via arbitration. However, the Marlins already have a star second baseman in Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is out for the remainder of this season but would be back next year. Torres was a shortstop when he came up but was moved to second by the Yanks after he failed to impress there. Even if the Marlins were willing to give him another try there, that would also be a bit of an awkward fit with Miguel Rojas still around for one more season.

Regardless of the various packages that were discussed, it is notable that the Yanks tried to get yet another starter. As mentioned earlier, they swapped in Montas to take the place of Severino, but then later flipped Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals. That leaves them with a four-man rotation of Montas, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Jameson Taillon. Domingo German has recently been called up from the minors and has made three starts but has a 6.39 so far.

Acquiring Lopez and bumping German back to the minors surely would have been a boon for the rotation, as Lopez has a 3.41 ERA through 21 starts on the year and fairly similar results in the previous two campaigns as well. A trade for Lopez was always going to be a challenge given that he can be controlled for two more seasons beyond this one, but perhaps the two clubs can revisit talks in the offseason and build off the conversations they’ve already had. Taillon is set to reach free agency after this season, potentially causing the Yankees to look for an extra hurler.

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