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Pablo Lopez

Twins Have Listened To Trade Offers On Pablo López

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The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.

As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”

Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.

Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.

Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.

That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.

The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.

It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.

As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.

Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.

Falvey Downplays Speculation Regarding Carlos Correa Trade

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With the Twins up for a potential sale and the front office facing payroll restrictions for a second straight offseason, there’s been a natural focus on the ways in which the club could look to reduce spending. Trades of Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez have long been seen as a possibility, but more recently there’s been at least some national speculation about a more dramatic move. Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently opined that the Yankees or Mets should “test the waters” on the Twins’ willingness to move shortstop Carlos Correa, who has four years and $128MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract (plus another four vesting/club options). Sherman opined last month that the Astros should explore a similar scenario.

Though there’s been no reporting to suggest that the Twins would actually consider such a move, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey apparently still sought to shut down any such speculation. Asking Correa (or any player) to waive a no-trade clause is “not something we’re focused on,” Falvey told Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The recently promoted top Twins exec also called Correa, Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton “key” members of the roster. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field,” Falvey added.

While Falvey, newly minted general manager Jeremy Zoll and the rest of the front office are clearly working on a tighter budget than they anticipated when signing Correa and extending Buxton (seven years, $100MM) and Lopez (four years, $73.5MM), that doesn’t mean the team is planning to step back or enter any sort of rebuild. Minnesota spent the majority of the season in possession of a playoff spot before an epic September collapse. Injuries to Paddack and Joe Ryan compromised the team’s starting depth, and the lineup went cold in conjunction. It was a disaster outcome, but not one the club feels is indicative of a need to tear things down.

Correa, 30, missed nearly half the 2024 season due to a bout of plantar fasciitis but played at a borderline MVP-caliber level when healthy. His .310/.388/.517 slash was 59% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, and Statcast felt his defense rebounded from a down 2023 showing in a major way. (Defensive Runs Saved was more bearish.) Correa’s 16.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, and he hit 14 homers in 367 plate appearances — just four fewer than he hit in 580 plate appearances during the 2023 season. His two-month absence from July 12 through Sept. 14 played a significant role in the Twins’ late-season deterioration.

Buxton, 31 next month, was limited by injuries once again — as has been the case in nearly every season of his career. Like Correa, he has a full no-trade clause. Also like Correa, he had one of the most productive seasons of his career when on the field in 2024. The former No. 2 overall pick slashed .279/.335/.524 — 42% better than average, per wRC+ — with 18 homers, seven steals and strong defense in 103 games/388 plate appearances. Buxton’s contract pays him $15MM annually through 2028, with a huge slate of incentives tied to playing time and MVP voting. He can earn up to $25.5MM in any given season, but if he ever actually reaches that figure, it’d be because he performed like one of the best players in the entire sport, at which point it’d be a bargain anyhow.

Lopez, 29 in March, is owed $21.75MM in each of the next three seasons. He doesn’t have trade protection in his contract but was listed by Falvey as one of the “key” players he’s not inclined to move even amid payroll constriction. Lopez got out to a rough start in 2024, pitching to an ERA near 5.00 through the season’s first three months before rebounding to more characteristic form down the stretch. Beginning with a dominant 14-strikeout performance in late June, Lopez logged a 2.91 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate in 105 1/3 innings across his final 17 starts.

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

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As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Twins Extend Pablo Lopez

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April 21: The Twins formally announced this morning that they’ve signed Lopez to a four-year extension, covering the 2024-27 seasons. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the contract breaks down in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2024 and annual salaries of $21.5MM from 2025-27.

April 17: The Twins are keeping their big offseason trade acquisition for the long haul. Minnesota is reportedly in agreement with right-hander Pablo Lopez on a four-year, $73.5MM contract extension. The deal is pending a physical. Lopez is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Lopez, 27, came to the Twins alongside top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio in the January trade that sent infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He’s already locked into a $5.45MM salary for the ongoing 2023 season, which is his second of three scheduled arbitration seasons. The new contract with the Twins will buy out Lopez’s final arbitration season and what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons; once completed, the Twins will have Lopez signed through his age-31 season.

Assuming Lopez would’ve landed somewhere in the $10MM range for his final arbitration season, the contract effectively buys out his first three free-agent years for a combined $63MM, give or take a bit. The deal values Lopez at somewhere around $20-21MM per free-agent season. That annual range takes him past the AAVs that mid-rotation arms like Taijuan Walker ($18MM) and Jameson Taillon ($17MM) agreed to this past offseason.

From a structural standpoint, there are some similarities to the recent extension between the Giants and their own top starter, Logan Webb. That $90MM deal, a record for the three-plus service class, also bought out three free-agent seasons. However, Webb’s deal bought out two arbitration seasons, and his first arbitration salary ($4.6MM) topped that of Lopez ($2.425MM), which helps to explain the gap between the final guarantees on the two deals.

Lopez could certainly have gone the year-to-year route, reaching free agency in advance of his age-29 season and perhaps setting himself up for a five- or even six-year deal in the process. Of course, that’d have been a gamble to some extent, given the ever-present risk of injury that’s inherent to all pitchers. That’s particularly notable for Lopez, who has thrice been on the injured list due to right shoulder troubles to this point in his career.

Through his first four starts with the Twins, Lopez has looked like a star. After pitching to a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 32 starts and 180 innings in 2022, he’s surged out to a 1.73 ERA through four starts and 26 innings with the Twins. Lopez’s 95.4 mph average fastball is a career-best mark, and his 33.7% strikeout rate trounces the 23.2% mark he posted in parts of five seasons in Miami. He’s managed to up his velocity and strikeout rate without sacrificing his pinpoint command; this year’s 6.1% walk rate tops the 6.7% mark he posted in his Marlins career.

Much of Lopez’s success to date can be attributed to a newly unveiled sweeper that has thus far befuddled opposing batters. Opponents are batting just .111 against the pitch with a massive 50% whiff rate, per Statcast. Between that and the gains on his fastball, Lopez is unsurprisingly boasting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. It’s only a sample of four starts, of course, but the results have generally exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for the righty. Time will tell whether he can sustain it all over a larger sample — a .236 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate both seem ripe for regression — but the Twins can only be thrilled with their end of that offseason trade.

With Lopez now locked in through at least the 2027 season, he joins Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton among the focal points of the Twins’ core. The Twins control catcher Christian Vazquez, second baseman Jorge Polanco and righty Chris Paddack through the 2025 season, but Correa, Buxton and now Lopez are the only players on guaranteed deals beyond that ’25 campaign. Of course, the Twins will have plenty of core players in arbitration at that point: closer Jhoan Duran, starter Joe Ryan and corner infielder Jose Miranda among them. Further cost certainty through extensions among that group or touted youngsters like Edouard Julien remain possible.

Looking to strictly the rotation, both Lopez and Ryan are now under club control through the 2027 season — which is slated to be Ryan’s final year of arbitration eligibility. Each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda will be up for free agency at the end of the current season, so it’s understandable that the Twins had extra incentive to lock up their top starter and lock in some additional continuity.

Minnesota also has towering 6’9″ righty Bailey Ober under club control through at least that same 2027 season, and while he opened the season in Triple-A St. Paul, his performance in the big leagues to date suggests he can be a part of that long-term starting staff (3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate in 148 1/3 innings). The aforementioned Paddack is signed through 2025 under the three-year, $12MM deal he signed while rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Other in-house rotation options beyond the current campaign who’ve already had some big league seasoning include prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder, though Winder’s frequent shoulder issues could eventually push him more toward to the bullpen.

Generally speaking, the Twins have shown increased willingness to spend in recent seasons, pushing their payroll up into the $150-160MM range in both 2022 and 2023. Assuming that’ll continue to be the norm in years to come, there’ll be plenty of room to supplement the core down the line. Lopez’s deal will likely land the Twins between $75-80MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 books, followed by something in the vicinity of $90-95MM in 2025 and around $70MM in both 2026-27 (depending on the extension’s exact year-to-year breakdown). The Twins aren’t and never have been at risk of paying the luxury tax, but they’ve also come quite a ways from their days as a perennial bottom-of-the-scale payroll club.

The trade bringing Lopez to Minnesota originally gave the Twins only two years of club control over Lopez, while Miami picked up three years of control over Arraez. The extension with Lopez more than balances out that disparity in club control, and it comes less than two years after the Twins begrudgingly made the decision to trade rotation stalwart Jose Berrios to Toronto after being unable to come to terms on an extension. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the seven-year extension Berrios inked with the Jays hasn’t panned out at all, and the Twins ultimately found their way to a prime-aged starter who was willing to commit to an extension on more favorable terms.

This surely isn’t exactly how they drew it up dating back to that pivotal trade deadline, but the Twins have added some long-term stability both in the lineup and in the rotation and done so without completely clogging the long-term payroll.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a four-year, $73.5MM agreement. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the sides had agreed to terms.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Twins Notes: Rotation, Ober, Arraez

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The dust is still settling in the aftermath of the Twins’ big four-player trade with the Marlins this past week, as Luis Arraez was sent to Miami in exchange for right-hander Pablo Lopez and prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio.  The move shook up Minnesota’s lineup and added yet another external arm to the Twins’ rotation.

As noted by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, all five members of the projected starting five (Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda) were all acquired in trades over the last three years.  Chris Paddack is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery but was also acquired in a trade with the Padres prior to last season, while Simeon Woods Richardson is another arm on the depth arm that came to the Twins as part of the deal that sent Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline.

While it is somewhat unusual for a team to built its rotation entirely via the trade market, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey was blunt in telling reporters (including Miller and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that, “I don’t care where [the starters] come from.  We need really good starters and we need really good pitchers.  Some of those are going to be free-agent signings, some of those are going to be trades, and some of those will also hopefully be from development.  But the goal here is to continue to deepen the starting rotation and pitching staff however we can do it.”

Bailey Ober is a homegrown product, selected by the Twins in the twelfth round of the 2017 draft.  The right-hander has pitched well in 148 1/3 innings and 31 starts over the last two seasons, though Lopez’s addition seemingly pushes Ober out of the rotation mix for now.  Of course, rotations rarely stay healthy for an entire season, leaving opportunity for Ober or other pitchers like Woods Richardson, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, etc. to make some starts if one of the top five needs to visit the injured list.

There’s also a chance that the starting five becomes a starting six, as adopting a six-man rotation is “something we talk about a lot,” Falvey admitted.  Minnesota’s depth gives the team the flexibility to shift to a six-man rotation if necessary, and “I will tell you that our hope right now is that we will go with five starters, and we feel like we have five good ones…but ultimately [we] have some depth behind it to make sure that we’re in a good place.”  If everyone stays healthy and the Twins do end up with a surplus of starting candidates, Falvey described that potential scenario as “a great problem to have.”

The Lopez trade closes the book on Arraez’s tenure with the Twins, as the infielder went from being a fairly unknown prospect to being an All-Star, Silver Slugger winner, and AL batting champion in 2022.  Arraez was already a strong performer in the three years prior to his big 2022 campaign, but his performance did dip a bit in an injury-shortened 2021 season.  In the wake of that relative down year, Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins had some talks with Arraez about a long-term extension, but Arraez turned the club down.

As a Super Two player, Arraez is eligible for four trips through the arbitration process, and he and the Twins avoided a hearing in Arraez’s first year of arb-eligibility by agreeing to a $2.125MM salary for the 2022 season.  While the terms of Minnesota’s extension offer aren’t known, it is fair to guess that the Twins were looking for a deal that would’ve covered all four of those arbitration years, as well as at least one of Arraez’s free agent years.  Signing such a contract would’ve locked in a nice guarantee for Arraez, and the first major payday of a career that began with a modest $40K bonus as an international signing.

But, Arraez opted to instead bet on himself to rebound from his 2021 season, and that self-confidence paid off nicely.  Prior to the trade, Arraez and the Twins were headed to an arbitration hearing after not being able to reach a salary agreement before the arbitration figure-exchange deadline — Arraez is looking for a $6.1MM salary, while the Twins countered with $5MM.  It seems possible that the Marlins might still go to a hearing with Arraez due to general front office principle, even if an arbitration hearing would be something of an awkward start to the relationship between the infielder and his new team.

Twins, Marlins Swap Luis Arraez For Pablo Lopez In Four-Player Trade

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Months of rumors about the Marlins’ rotation have finally resulted in some action, as the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, top infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per announcements from both clubs.

The core of the trade, for immediate purposes, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for two seasons of Lopez, who’ll immediately be an upgrade to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his own as a quality big league starter over the past three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 47.4% ground-ball rate in 340 innings.

Lopez has dealt with some injury issues in his career, thrice landing on the injured list due to shoulder strains. The most recent of those three injuries came in the summer of 2021 and wiped out more than two months of Lopez’s season, but he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the life of 32 starts. Last year’s performance netted Lopez a still eminently affordable $5.45MM salary. He’ll be due one more raise in arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency following the 2024 campaign — barring an extension, of course.

The newly acquired Lopez will step into a Twins rotation that also includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Though it was easy to wonder whether Lopez could push Kenta Maeda into a bullpen role after he missed the entire 2022 season on the heels of internal brace surgery on his right elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will remain a starter.

The likeliest odd man out of conventional five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, but the towering righty has pitched to a sharp 3.82 ERA in 31 starts to begin his big league career — including a 3.21 mark in 56 innings last season. (Ober missed more than three months due to a severe groin strain.) Alternatively, the Twins could look to deploy a six-man rotation that would help them manage Maeda’s workload and hopefully lead to better health among a starting staff that was generally hampered by injury throughout the 2022 season.

Meanwhile, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one of their best hitters and one of their primary options at first base and designated hitter. His departure likely opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to slot in as the primary first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick, ranked as one of the sport’s 10 to 15 best prospects prior to his big league debut, but he’s now undergone wrist surgery in each of the past two seasons, derailing the start to his career. There’s quite a bit of upside there, but quite a bit of risk as well. It’s always possible the Twins look to add another established hitter to help soften the blow of losing Arraez, but the first base and DH markets in free agency have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they choose, it’ll likely have to come via another trade.

On the other side of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami perhaps the most impeccable bat-to-ball skills in Major League Baseball, having fanned in just 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old back in 2019. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, but Arraez’s mark of 8.7% is still higher than both his strikeout rate and this past season’s league-average 8.2% walk rate.

Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight home runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter in the Major Leagues. His contact skills are second to none and will likely always allow him to hit for a high average, but the rest of his game is rather limited. Arraez is lacking in power, evidenced by a career .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average), and his average sprint speed is below average, per Statcast.

While he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as something of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left field, delivering lackluster defensive grades at each of those spots other than first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with general manager Kim Ng subsequently announcing that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is moving to center field.

Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying injury issues on his resume. A torn ACL during his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured list three times since Opening Day 2020 due to knee troubles as well. Arraez also spent a week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed nearly three weeks of that season due to a shoulder strain.

Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Super Two player, still has two years of arbitration remaining beyond the current campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to terms on an agreement prior to last week’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, while Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a new team, it’s possible Arraez could agree to a one-year deal somewhere between those points, or perhaps even discuss a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his salary north of $10MM by his final year of club control, in 2025.

For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with several intriguing arms still waiting in the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the organization’s rotation depth is strong enough to withstand the loss of Lopez.

There’s little doubting, however, that the defense will suffer from both the acquisition of Arraez and last week’s trade of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, while Chisholm will have to learn a brand new center field position on the fly. Overall, the gambit of dropping Rojas and adding Arraez in the name of balancing and improving the lineup could have the unfortunate side effect of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive club to one of the worst in the National League.

The prospects in the deal are both long-term plays for the Twins, making them somewhat curious secondary pieces for a team that’s clearly bidding for immediate contention in the wake of their stunning deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That said, recent trades for Mahle, Gray and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in considerable fashion, so backfilling with some youthful talent helps straddle the line of building for both the short- and long-term.

Salas is particularly well regarded, originally signing for a $2.8MM bonus and currently ranking fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop for the time being, though BA’s scouting report suggests a move to third base is possible, depending on the extent to which his still-lean frame grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 against vastly older competition in 2022, splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced despite only turning 19 this past April.

Salas connected on nine homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 games. Scouting reports on Salas tout his work ethic, his feel for contact and the potential for at least average power. He’ll immediately become one of the Twins’ top overall prospects, but he won’t add any value to their 2023 club (aside from perhaps giving them more flexibility when it comes to negotiating additional trades).

Chourio is even younger, having just signed as an amateur out of Venezuela one year and five days ago. Despite playing the season at just 17 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, nine doubles, 19 steals and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.

Chourio won’t even turn 18 until May, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a legitimate big league possibility, and it’s quite likely that he’s even further off than that. Still, there’s plenty to like about him despite the lack of proximity to the Majors. In addition to his eye-catching pro debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s physical projection, strong throwing arm, center field instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ international signing class last year.

Today’s trade puts an end to months of speculation and rumors regarding Lopez, who finally knows where he’ll spend at least the next two seasons of his career. It remains possible, given Miami’s depth and the needs they have elsewhere on the roster, that they could further tap into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an increasingly questionable defense. On the Twins’ end of things, Lopez isn’t clearly better than any of their in-house options, but they’ll add another mid-rotation arm to a starting staff deep in comparable talents, helping to safeguard against injury and adding some stability beyond the current season, when each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become free agents. They’ll also restock a farm system that’s been taxed by recent trades, but the swap feels more like a next step than the final piece of an offseason puzzle.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the two teams were progressing toward a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was done. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the two prospects going back to Minnesota (Twitter links).

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

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