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Pablo Lopez

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Offseason?

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The Twins conducted a complete fire sale at the trade deadline this year as they shipped 11 players off their big league roster, but one significant player who stayed in place was ace right-hander Pablo Lopez. The talented righty was limited to just 14 starts this season by a hamstring strain and a shoulder strain before his season came to an end in September due to a forearm strain.

The fact of Lopez’s injury-marred season left the Twins unable to move him at the deadline this year when they purged the majority of their veteran players, but that doesn’t mean a deal can’t be made this offseason. After all, the aforementioned forearm strain that ended his season came with “no concern” regarding Lopez’s UCL or elbow, and all indications point to him being expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for the 2026 campaign. What’s more, Lopez was nothing short of excellent when healthy this year as he pitched to a 2.79 ERA with a 3.19 FIP in 75 2/3 innings of work.

That’s the sort of top-of-the-rotation potential that contending teams will want to bring in desperately this winter, and the Twins could stand to benefit from trading Lopez during an offseason where there are few free agents who offer much certainty. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez all had tough years that didn’t quite reach their typical standards, while Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber face health-related questions after seasons coming off major surgery. Lopez has his own flaws, of course, including his array of recent injuries and a pedestrian 4.08 ERA as recently as last year. Even so, the uncertainty surrounding this crop of free agent starters can only serve to make Lopez more attractive by comparison.

It’s unclear what the Twins’ payroll capacity or competitive expectations for 2025 are, but if the team embarks on a lengthy rebuild it would make little sense to hold onto the final two years and $43.5MM left on the Lopez’s contract. Young arms like Mick Abel, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa are all likely to compete for a spot in the rotation. Holdovers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober will surely be in the rotation (unless they’re traded themselves), and Kendry Rojas could be ready for the majors at some point next year as well. That deep group of young rotation pieces makes Lopez a bit more expendable to the Twins than he would be for most teams, at least if they aren’t expecting to compete next year.

Given the fact that Lopez would surely bring back a hefty return on the trade market and the depth the Twins currently enjoy in their rotation, using the right-hander to infuse more offensive talent into the club’s roster would make a lot of sense. With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Twins actually still have some notable talent on paper. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober could form a front three in the rotation that many contenders in the league would be jealous of. Star outfielder Byron Buxton has been healthier of late and has the offensive ability to be an anchor for a playoff lineup. Players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have shown impressive ceilings despite their inconsistency, while young bats like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall could take a big step forward. It’s not impossible to imagine a viable offensive core coming together as soon as next year, especially if top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins can contribute at some point.

Of course, even with those positives the Twins would need to significantly invest in the team in order to build a real contender for 2026. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2026 to fall into the range of $95MM, and while that leaves around $40MM in budget space relative to the 2025 club’s payroll it’s an open question how much of that (if any) will actually be reinvested into the major league club given the clear financial motivations behind this summer’s Correa trade.

The Twins would need serious help in the bullpen in order to compete after losing Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and players like Kody Clemens and Austin Martin starting regularly at first base and in left field wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence either. If the front office is facing substantial financial constraints that weren’t in place this time last year, there may be an argument for moving Lopez even if they do want to compete next year. After all, his $21.75MM salary could then be reinvested into the offense or bullpen, both of which have much less depth than the rotation does at present.

How do MLBTR readers view the situation? Should the Twins trade Lopez this offseason, either in hopes of reallocating his salary to other parts of the roster or as part of a full-scale rebuild? Or should they keep their ace in the fold to give themselves the best shot of winning next year? Have your say in the poll below:

Twins Place Pablo Lopez On 15-Day Injured List

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The Twins placed right-hander Pablo Lopez on the 15-day injured list today due to a right forearm strain. Right-hander Mick Abel was recalled to replace Lopez on the active roster. With just over a week left in the 2025 campaign and Minnesota completely out of the playoff picture, the move to the injured list ends Lopez’s season.

Lopez, 29, finishes the year having been limited to just 14 starts by injuries. After a short stint on the shelf due to a hamstring strain in April, Lopez went on to miss three months over the summer due to a shoulder strain before this forearm strain brought his season to a close. When healthy enough to take the field, Lopez was effective as ever with a 2.74 ERA and 3.20 FIP across his 75 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate of 23.4% was a little bit lower than recent years but still only a tick below his career norms, and a 6.4% walk rate is a near perfect match for his career 6.3% rate.

That Lopez has looked more or less the same in terms of production despite all of those injuries should be reassuring for the Twins as they enter an uncertain offseason following a massive sell-off that seemingly plunged them into what could be a protracted rebuild. With two years and $43.5MM left on Lopez’s contract, he would surely be an attractive trade chip to market over the offseason if the Twins want to further focus on loading up with young talent for the future. If he had pitched poorly when on the mound this year, getting much value for Lopez might not on the table for this winter, and they’d have to either sell low on him or hold him into the 2026 season.

Of course, it’s still entirely possible they hold onto Lopez for the time being. It’s not impossible to imagine some teams balking at paying a premium for Lopez’s services with so many injury woes on his resume this season, and today’s news of a forearm strain won’t help those concerns. If teams are wary of Lopez’s health, perhaps Minnesota will decide to hold onto him and hope for better health in 2026. With that being said, the strain appears to be rather mild. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays that there is “no concern” regarding Lopez’s elbow or UCL, and that the strain is mild enough that he would’ve likely avoided the IL entirely had the Twins still been in the race for the postseason. That description of the injury sounds minor enough that it likely shouldn’t change a team’s evaluation of Lopez significantly, which is good news for the Twins if they hope to make the right-hander available this offseason.

Of course, if the Twins decide to pivot away from what looks like it could be the start of a rebuild and instead try to augment the club with an eye towards contention in 2026, Lopez will be a key piece of that team alongside other core pieces like Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan. While that trio is some of the only certainty that Twins have at this point, they have very little money on the books after dumping Carlos Correa’s contract to Houston and could have some considerable upside if young players like Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee manage to step into larger roles next year.

Twins Outright Noah Davis

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The Twins announced Friday that they’ve passed right-hander Noah Davis through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A St. Paul. That’ll be the corresponding roster move for Pablo Lopez’s previously reported reinstatement from the 60-day injured list, which is now official.

Davis landed in Minnesota back in July, coming over from the Dodgers in a cash swap after he’d been designated for assignment. The 2018 eleventh-rounder made four short relief appearances for the Twins and allowed multiple runs in all of them. He’s been tagged for 22 runs in 11 innings between Minnesota and L.A. this season, further inflating the already unsightly 7.71 ERA he logged in parts of three seasons with the Rockies (51 1/3 innings).

Though Davis has been hit exceptionally hard in the majors, he has a more encouraging track record in the upper minors. He’s pitched 176 2/3 innings in Triple-A, logging a 4.79 ERA despite most of his time being spent in an exorbitantly hitter-friendly setting (Colorado’s Albuquerque club in the Pacific Coast League). Davis has pitched 43 1/3 innings between the Triple-A clubs for the Dodgers and Twins this year and turned in a solid 3.95 ERA with a strong 26.1% strikeout rate.

This is the second career outright for Davis — the Rockies outrighted him last September — which gives him the right to reject the assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency, should he prefer to seek a change of scenery.

Twins To Activate Pablo Lopez

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The Twins will activate Pablo López to start tomorrow’s series opener against the Royals, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. He’ll be activated from the 60-day injured list. Minnesota already has two vacancies on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to option a pitcher to create an active roster spot.

López has been out of action for three months. He suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain in his throwing shoulder during his start on June 3. That injury was arguably the turning point of Minnesota’s season. The Twins were seven games above .500 and in possession of a Wild Card spot at the time. Minnesota’s rotation collapsed over the next few weeks. That wasn’t all about López’s injury, as the struggles extended beyond call-up David Festa, but their season never recovered.

The Twins went 9-18 in June. A month later, they traded almost everyone from their bullpen and pulled off the surprising Carlos Correa salary dump. A healthy López would’ve been a target for contenders as well. The Twins had no reason to trade him halfway through an injury, but it’s not out of the question that they hear teams out this offseason.

López was off to what might’ve been a career season. He posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 frames spanning 11 starts. He fanned a quarter of opponents against a 5.7% walk rate. López has been an above-average starter for a few years but has yet to post a sub-3.00 ERA over a full season. He might have been on that trajectory had he not gotten hurt.

Minnesota’s sell-off and fall down the standings raised some question about whether it’d be prudent to shut López down entirely. The veteran righty remained committed to making it back for a few turns through the rotation. That’ll allow him to go into the offseason with more confidence than he would have had coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. It’ll also give opposing clubs a few looks as they consider whether to make a big push to try to pull López in an offseason trade.

López is wrapping up the second season of a four-year, $73.5MM extension. He’ll make $21.5MM per season between 2026-27. That’s below market value for a #2 caliber starter. López would have trade value if the Twins shop him, but they could prefer to hold him as a veteran anchor of a young rotation while looking ahead to a potential deadline deal in 2026. Joe Ryan, who is down to his last two seasons of arbitration control, will also be one of the offseason’s top trade candidates.

Latest On Pablo Lopez

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Pablo Lopez suffered a Grade 2 strain of his right teres major muscle in early June, and the Twins right-hander has now missed a little over 10 weeks of action.  This puts him within the projected 8-to-12 week timeline initially attached to his recovery, and Lopez has steadily been taking steps towards a September return, including five bullpen sessions and a simulated inning.  The next step comes tomorrow, as Lopez told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that he’ll face live hitters for the first time over two simulated innings.

Should all go well on Friday, Lopez will advance to a Spring Training-esque schedule of an additional inning every five or six days.  It can be assumed a minor league rehab assignment will be part of this plan given how much time Lopez has missed, but is aiming to be back in Minnesota’s rotation by early September.

Since the Twins had a virtual fire sale of their roster at the trade deadline and only faintly remain in wild card contention, it isn’t likely that Lopez will be returning to any meaningful games.  However, Lopez isn’t at all considering a shutdown, as he is intent on making “four or five, maybe six starts” in what remains of the 2025 campaign.

“Because time allows, I want to do it.  Also, peace of mind,” Lopez said.  “I want to be able to tell myself I was able to come back from this injury and pitch and perform at the level I know I can perform.”

Between this shoulder strain and a minimal 15-day absence due to a hamstring strain in April, Lopez has been limited to only 60 2/3 innings this season.  This injury-riddled year has interrupted a string of workhorse performances for Lopez, who tossed 559 1/3 IP over the 2022-24 seasons — the seventh-highest innings total of any pitcher in baseball over that three-season span.

The righty also posted a 3.83 ERA over that span, and the bottom-line results were even sharper this year since Lopez had a 2.82 ERA across his 60 2/3 frames in 2025.  The Twins were already impressed enough by Lopez’s first season in Minnesota to sign the righty to a four-year, $73.5MM extension in April 2023 that covers the 2024-27 seasons.  He is set to earn $21.5MM in each of the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Speculatively speaking, it is worth wondering if Lopez and the Twins could be viewing any September starts as an audition for potential trade suitors.  Lopez and Byron Buxton are Minnesota’s highest-paid players now that Carlos Correa has been dealt to the Astros, and Buxton has already made it clear that he won’t be waiving his no-trade protection.  That leaves Lopez as the most natural candidate for a trade if the Twins continue to explore payroll cuts, and a few more outings in 2025 would also provide some evidence for rival teams that Lopez is fully healthy.  Since the Twins explored trading the less-expensive Joe Ryan at the deadline, it stands to reason that they would also be open to moving a pricier rotation option in Lopez, though naturally the front office would want a significant return rather than just a salary dump.

Wednesday’s surprising news that the Pohlad family was abandoning plans to sell the team threw another curveball into what has been a tumultuous few weeks for the organization.  It is possible the addition of two new minority owners has provided enough of a cash influx that payroll cuts are no longer a priority, yet we’ll have to wait until the offseason to see how things truly play out, and what types of rebuild-or-reload moves president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will be considering.

Twins Claim Joey Wentz

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The Twins announced that they have claimed left-hander Joey Wentz off waivers from the Pirates. The latter club designated him for assignment a few days ago. Wentz is out of options, so the Twins will need to make a corresponding active roster move when he reports to the team. To open a 40-man spot for Wentz, the Twins have transferred righty Pablo López to the 60-day injured list. It was reported last week that López is expected to miss eight to twelve weeks due to a teres major strain.

Wentz, 27, is in his fourth major league season. He was primarily a starting pitcher in 2022 and 2023 but didn’t quite establish himself as a bonafide big league rotation member. At the end of the 2023 season, he had a 5.99 earned run average and had exhausted his final option season.

That pushed him to the bullpen, a role in which he has shown some potential. He tossed 55 1/3 innings out of Detroit’s bullpen last year. The 5.37 ERA wasn’t great, nor was his 10.6% walk rate, but his 23.6% strikeout rate and 42% ground ball rate were pretty close to average. That got him bumped off the roster at the end of August last year.

The Pirates put in a claim and got some encouraging results from Wentz to end the season. He posted a 1.50 ERA in 12 frames after that claim. His walk rate ticked up to 12% but he also struck out 26% of batters faced.

He stuck on Pittsburgh’s roster through the winter and into 2025 with some mixed results so far. His 9.6% walk rate is still a bit high but an improvement for him. He’s also tamped down his home runs, with only 6.5% of fly balls leaving the yard compared to 11.3% last year. His 41.8% ground ball rate is still close to league par but his strikeout rate has dipped to 19.1%.

That got him bumped off Pittsburgh’s roster but the Twins will take a shot on him. Minnesota currently has Danny Coulombe as its only lefty reliever on the active roster, with Kody Funderburk on optional assignment. Wentz will give manager Rocco Baldelli a second southpaw in the relief corps alongside Coulombe, at least for the time being. Given his out-of-options status, Wentz will likely have a tenuous hold on a roster spot unless he takes a step forward.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Pablo Lopez To Miss Multiple Months With Teres Major Strain

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June 5: The Twins formally placed Lopez on the injured list and recalled Festa today, per a club announcement.

June 4: The Twins announced that Pablo López suffered a Grade 2 strain of the teres major in his throwing shoulder. He’s expected to miss eight to 12 weeks. He’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for at least a month before he goes for reevaluation.

López left last night’s start against the A’s after five innings. He reported shoulder discomfort while throwing his warm-up pitches in advance of the sixth. The Twins immediately acknowledged that an injured list stint was inevitable. They were awaiting the results of today’s imaging before making that move. It’s unfortunately significant enough that it’ll cost him the majority of the remaining schedule.

This is the same injury and degree of strain which rotation mate Joe Ryan sustained last August. Ryan went down early in the month and missed the remainder of the season. It didn’t carry into the offseason, and he has returned as strong as ever this year. That’s a source of long-term optimism for López, but it doesn’t change the significant hit to the rotation over the next few months.

It’s the righty’s second, and far more notable, IL stint this year. López had a minimal absence in April due to a hamstring strain. The injuries have interrupted a characteristically strong performance. He sports a 2.82 earned run average across 60 2/3 frames. It would have been his first career sub-3.00 showing if he maintained it all year. He has fanned nearly a quarter of opponents while allowing two or fewer runs in nine of his 11 appearances.

Minnesota has one of the top rotations in the league. They’re fifth in MLB with a 3.43 ERA while ranking eighth with a 23.2% strikeout rate. López, Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have all performed well. The final spot has been the only weak point. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned out after allowing more than five earned runs per nine. Zebby Matthews replaced him in the rotation last month. He made his fourth start of the season tonight and carries a 5.21 ERA over 19 innings. He’s missing plenty of bats, though, so he’s a more exciting fifth starter than Woods Richardson has been.

David Festa will get the first crack at plugging López’s rotation spot. He was scratched from a start at Triple-A St. Paul this evening, as first noted by Declan Goff of SKOR North. Festa traveled to Sacramento to meet the big league team. Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes that he will likely go in tomorrow’s series finale to give the rest of the starters an extra day of rest.

The 25-year-old Festa ranked as one of the sport’s better pitching prospects when he was promoted last summer. He allowed a 4.90 ERA over his first 14 MLB appearances. He made a trio of starts early in the season while López was sidelined by the hamstring. Festa managed an impressive 15:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only three runs through 13 innings. He has pitched well through six Triple-A starts, turning in a 2.83 mark with a near-31% strikeout rate. Hayes notes that he was sidelined for much of May by biceps inflammation, but he has looked sharp in two appearances since returning. He fired five scoreless frames with five strikeouts in his most recent start.

Festa is a high-upside injury replacement. Woods Richardson remains on optional assignment as a depth arm. The rotation depth is a silver lining, but it’s fair to wonder how this impacts the team’s deadline approach. López won’t be back at least into August and could be shelved into September. The Twins are in the thick of a congested AL Wild Card race and six games behind the Tigers in the division.

Twins Place Pablo Lopez On Injured List

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April 11: The Twins announced that Lopez has been placed on the 15-day IL. Festa has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in his place and will get the start in tonight’s game.

April 9: The Twins plan to place Pablo López on the 15-day injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli tells reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Minnesota’s Opening Day starter was diagnosed with a Grade One strain of his right hamstring.

A Grade One strain is the least severe. Baldelli indicated the Twins are hopeful that López will be back after a minimal IL stay. He suffered the injury during last night’s appearance in Kansas City. López needed to depart after 4 2/3 innings and 78 pitches. He went for an MRI today which revealed the mild strain. It halts a very strong start to the season. López has allowed six runs (three earned) with 14 strikeouts and two walks over 16 2/3 frames.

This will be the first injured list stint for López since the Twins acquired him from Miami in the swap for Luis Arraez during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s made all 32 starts in each of the past three seasons, in fact. López combined for 379 1/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball over his first two years in the Twin Cities. He ranked eight in MLB in innings and tied for sixth in starts during that stretch.

The Twins blanked K.C. tonight behind an excellent start from Joe Ryan. They nevertheless have a 4-8 record. Their rotation entered play Wednesday with an MLB-worst 6.26 earned run average. López and Ryan have been excellent, but each of Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober have been hit hard through two starts.

Minnesota hasn’t had the luxury of many early-season off days. Tomorrow will be the halfway point of a stretch of 12 straight game days between April 5-16. Ober will pitch in the series finale with Kansas City. Paddack and Woods Richardson would line up for the first two starts of their weekend set in Detroit. They’ll need someone to step into López’s spot on Sunday.

Zebby Matthews and David Festa are each highly-regarded young pitchers who made their big league debuts last season. Neither player had much success as rookies, but they’re more talented than the sixth and seventh starters for a lot of teams. Matthews, who would be on regular rest for Sunday, has been excellent through his first two turns in Triple-A. He has punched out 13 against one walk while firing 10 innings of two-run ball. Festa has an 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while giving up five earned runs in 8 1/3 frames. If the Twins want to keep both youngsters in the minors, they could reselect swingman Randy Dobnak after running him through outright waivers last week.

Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade

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It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.

Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.

That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.

Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.

Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.

Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.

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Twins Have Listened To Trade Offers On Pablo López

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The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.

As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”

Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.

Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.

Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.

That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.

The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.

It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.

As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.

Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.

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