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Trade Rumblings: Giants, Longoria, Gray, Yankees, Arenado

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The latest from the trade market…

  • Giants third baseman Evan Longoria lamented the slow-moving free-agent process in an Instagram post Friday, criticizing the advent of new metrics which he believes devalue players. Regardless of whether you agree with Longoria’s stance, one doesn’t need analytics to figure out he disappointed in 2018, his first year with the Giants, as the former Rays superstar slashed a mere .244/.281/.413 in 512 plate appearances. On the heels of that subpar showing, San Francisco’s “gauging” interest in Longoria on the trade front, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Although, as Heyman points out, moving Longoria would be a significant challenge for the Giants. Not only is he a 33-year-old coming off a career-worst season, but Longoria has another $72.5MM left on the extension he signed as a Ray in 2012, and his contract also includes a $2MM assignment bonus in the seemingly improbable event the Giants trade him.
  • The Reds are reportedly close to acquiring Yankees right-hander Sonny Gray, but he had been on the Giants’ “radar,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman, and Gray didn’t fit either category. Gray’s only under wraps for another year, though adding him would have meant a return to the Bay Area – where he largely held his own in Oakland from 2013-17 – as well as a reunion with former A’s executive Zaidi.
  • In a juicier Yankees-related note, GM Brian Cashman has held internal discussions regarding a potential offseason or in-season trade for Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. With Arenado entering his last year of control, in which he’ll earn between $24MM and $30MM, his eminently successful Colorado tenure may be nearing an end. However, trade whispers surrounding the soon-to-be 28-year-old are “far fetched,” Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post hears from multiple sources. Of course, if the Yankees want to upgrade at third before the season, 26-year-old free agent Manny Machado represents a younger, arguably better option than Arenado, but it doesn’t seem the Bombers are pursuing the former.

NL West Notes: Arenado, Rockies, Flores, D-backs, Giants

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich largely declined an opportunity to discuss the state of the team’s contract talks with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. Bridich says the club is content to “keep things under wraps, under our hat for now” as it continues to try to work out a 2019 salary — and, perhaps, a long-term deal — with the club’s top player. The general manager did say that the Rox will not “set any deadlines or ultimatums,” though that comment may relate more to the still-unresolved arbitration case than extension talks. Arenado and the team still need to bridge a $6MM gap to stave off a hearing, as he filed at $30MM against the team’s $24MM submission. It’s still anyone’s guess whether there’ll be any real traction in discussions on a lengthier accord, but it’ll unquestionably cost a pretty penny to get the 27-year-old to forego a chance at testing the open market next winter.

Here’s more out of Denver and the NL West…

  • Also from Harding’s piece, Bridich stated that the Rockies “haven’t been overly aggressive” in the outfield market. Fans hoping for a reunion with Matt Holliday will be disheartened to see that the GM characterized the franchise icon as a tougher fit on the current roster than he was when he was signed late in the 2018 season and enjoyed a brief comeback tour. Presently, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl look like locks for regular outfield work. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and Noel Cuevas will also slot in around the outfield, though Cuevas has options remaining, so it seems conceivable that the Rox could make a move if a palatable bargain presents itself.
  • There are “indications” that the Diamondbacks plan to utilize newly signed Wilmer Flores as their second baseman in 2019, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Doing so would allow them to shift Ketel Marte to the outfield as their new primary center fielder. It’d be an unfamiliar position for Marte, but the move is something that’s been discussed for some time now. (The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan noted as much all the way back in October). As Piecoro notes, the D-backs’ defensive alignment figures to look quite a bit different; Jake Lamb is slated to move across the diamond to first base following the trade of Paul Goldschmidt, with Eduardo Escobar slotting in as the primary third baseman. Nick Ahmed (shortstop), Flores (second base) and Marte (center field) could line up on the middle of the diamond, with David Peralta and Steven Souza Jr. flanking Marte in center.
  • The Giants may use the “opener” strategy at times in 2019 but won’t be among the league’s most aggressive teams with it, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Madison Bumgarner, Derek Holland and Jeff Samardzija will all be treated as traditional starters, though Schulman notes that president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has recently expressed a desire to manage the workloads of younger arms like Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez “for their future and for ours.” Schulman’s column explores multiple avenues to achieving that goal and features multiple quotes from Zaidi and skipper Bruce Bochy on the pitching staff that Giants fans will surely want to check out in full. Schulman also reiterates that it’s still possible the Giants could explore trades of either Will Smith or Tony Watson as they seek additional rotation and outfield options. Both lefty relievers can become free agents next offseason.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Infield Notes: Machado, Realmuto, LeMahieu, Merrifield, Hernandez, Arenado

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Superstar free agent Manny Machado will not meet with teams in Las Vegas, it seems, preferring instead to visit suitors at their home parks, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That would seem to suggest that his market won’t take off over the week to come, though surely there’ll be relevant developments. If Machado is indeed plotting a course of courtship that will take place over the coming weeks, then perhaps there’s more room for earlier developments in other segments of the infield market …

  • Behind the dish, the Marlins’ asking price on J.T. Realmuto may be creeping back down to more realistic levels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The organization has long been said to be asking for an enormous return in exchange for two seasons of the game’s best backstop, which truthfully isn’t an unreasonable starting point. Still, as Sherman notes, the club will ultimately likely be forced to take what the offer will give. For the Mets, pursuit of Realmuto is still seen “as a long shot,” Sherman adds on Twitter. And the Phillies are presently focused on other pursuits, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), such that they haven’t engaged with their division rivals in Miami regarding Realmuto in a few weeks’ time.
  • The Athletics have reached out to second baseman DJ LeMahieu as they continue to explore the market for second basemen, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s not an indication that the Oakland org is out on Jed Lowrie, so much as the latest sign that a reunion is anything but inevitable with both parties seeing other people. LeMahieu himself likely isn’t the only alternative being considered, Slusser notes; she goes on to explore some of the other opportunities that could be pondered by the A’s brass.
  • In a boon to free agents and teams with potential trade chips at second base, Royals GM Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) that he is not getting as many questions of late about Whit Merrifield. That’s not because of a lack of interest, though, so much as the fact that the Royals have “pretty much made it clear” they will hold onto the late-blooming star. Merrifield will not even be eligible for arbitration until 2020, though he’ll turn thirty before the start of the 2019 season. From an outside perspective, this seems an ideal time to market a player who’d draw wide interest given his excellent recent production, defensive flexibility, and cheap price tag. But the Kansas City org seems determined to try to build around some of its preexisting roster assets.
  • The Phillies are not finding initial success at generating interest in second baseman Cesar Hernandez, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). With a robust slate of free agents at the position and a seemingly increasing list of available trade candidates, there’s some imbalance between the supply and demand. Hernandez, 28, has been a fairly steady performer, but he did fall off a bit with the bat last year and is increasingly expensive at a projected $8.9MM arb salary in his second to last run through the process.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discussed his team’s long-term relationship possibilities with third baseman Nolan Arenado in an inteview on MLB Network (h/t Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Twitter links). Bridich says the club can afford to carry a $200MM+ promise to Arenado, citing a “responsible growth” plan for payroll. Of course, that number may only be scratching the surface of what Arenado could command in a hypothetical post-2019 free agency, so it’s far from clear just yet whether the club will be both willing and able to line up on a new deal to keep him from the open market. Otherwise, unsurprisingly, Bridich acknowledged that the Rox are interested in improving not only in the outfield but also at first base to boost a sagging offense.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

Nolan Arenado already earned $17.75 million in 2018, and put together another storied season. He led the league with 38 home runs, and hit .297 while knocking in 110 runs. He won yet another Gold Glove, yet another Silver Slugger, made the All Star Game, and again finished in the Top 5 of MVP Voting. That makes for his sixth, fourth, fourth, and third consecutive season in each of those accomplishments.

Entering his fourth year of arbitration, it stands to reason that Arenado will earn more than any player ever has in arbitration. After all, Josh Donaldson currently holds that record at $23 million just last year. Since the arbitration system generally awards raises based on platform year performance (except for in the player’s first year of arbitration eligibility), Donaldson’s level of pay would only reflect a $5.25 million raise, which is frankly too small for Arenado.

Indeed, the model predicts a big move up to $26.1MM for Arenado, which would represent a raise of over $8MM from his 2018 salary. Notably, too, there is some uncertainty present, since he earned $17.75 million last year only as part of a two year deal. Players do sometimes get treated differently in the event of returning to arbitration following multi-year deals. In the industry, this is often termed a “re-slot.” Probably the most recent notable example of such was Bryce Harper. In 2017, he received an $8.625 million raise from $5 to $13.625 million after a two-year deal. In that case, Harper had won the MVP Award in the first year of the two covered by the earlier agreement, and may have been treated as someone who would be re-slotted. In this case, if we were to estimate what Arenado would have earned in arbitration in 2018 based on his 2017 performance, we might have guessed $20.7 million rather than $17.75 million.

So, if anything, we would probably expect Arenado to argue for more than $26.1 million based on a re-slotting. Already in uncharted waters in terms of salary, that may or may not be a hard sell. After all, at that point, we would be looking at a “Kimbrel Rule” situation. That “rule” is named after Craig Kimbrel, and basically describes the maximum amount that we should expect a player to break the record raise for his service class. This rule exists because Craig Kimbrel’s first year of arbitration eligibility was so unique that my model had him earning significantly more than any closer had ever earned. We therefore capped his projection. The Kimbrel rule as applied to Arenado would give him a $26.75 million maximum, not much different than his $26.1 million projection.

If we look for comparables, it’s hard to find any for Arenado regardless of the method used to evaluate him. Donaldson would actually be a floor in my estimation. He hit .270 with 33 HR and 78 RBI in 2017, but in just 496 PA. With Arenado stepping up to the plate a whopping 673 times, and hitting .297 with 38 HR and 110 RBI, he will surely not command a smaller raise than Donaldson’s $6 million.

One potential comparable for Arenado could be teammate Charlie Blackmon, who produced .331/37/104 the year before last, and got a $6.7 million raise. We might expect that to be a rather close match for Arenado, although Blackmon’s ultimate raise was called into question by other agents at the time. Still, if we think that Arenado would come in at about a $6.7 million raise, that would land him at a $24.45 million salary — less than his $26.1 million projection. On the other hand, if Arenado’s Gold Gloves or higher service time factor in, we may still be north of that and closer to his projection.

Arenado will be an interesting, record-breaking case this year. With several complicating factors impacting his case, there’s a fairly large spread of dollars theoretically open for discussion. Ultimately, I suspect that the model is pretty close, but I could see being off by a couple million in either direction.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals

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Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago.  Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.

  • Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.

Quick Hits: Arenado, White Sox, Moncada, Rangers

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Speaking Friday with reporters – including Kyle Newman of the Denver Post – general manager Jeff Bridich revealed that the Rockies and Nolan Arenado have had “honest” discussions about a contract extension over the past couple years. Bridich added that he expects the two sides to continue talking in the coming months, and suggested the team’s unlikely to trade the superstar third baseman this offseason. “There’s not a perfect timeline or a specific timeline, but we’d love to have him here, and he knows that,” Bridich said. “We’ll see what happens … We expect him to be on our team next year.” Arenado has been a speculative trade candidate because he’s facing his last year of team control in 2019, when he’s projected to rake in a whopping $26.1MM via arbitration. But the 27-year-old is integral to the Rockies, who have earned two straight playoff berths and, with Arenado’s help in 2019, figure to aim for another postseason trip in what could be his last hurrah with the club.

Here’s more from around the majors:

  • Yoan Moncada has called second base home since the White Sox acquired him from the Red Sox in 2016, but it’s possible he’ll head to a new position next season. General manager Rick Hahn said Friday (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicag Sun-Times) that Moncada’s open to switching spots, “but we’re going to wait to see how this offseason plays out before we fully commit to any reconfiguring of the infield. It’s a possibility and if it were to happen we’d likely firm that up before we head to spring training.” Shortstop, third base and even center field have come up in the past as potential long-term landing spots for Moncada, whose athleticism has been a key selling point since his days as a star prospect. Now, if Chicago’s truly considering moving the 23-year-old Moncada off second, it could help inform its offseason plans.
  • In addition to discussing Moncada’s status, Hahn highlighted which areas the White Sox will try to upgrade this winter. “We need to augment both the starting rotation and the bullpen,” he said (per Van Schouwen), though he cautioned that the White Sox must keep their “long-term focus” in mind. At the moment, Chicago has the payroll room to make substantial upgrades, but it’s also coming off a 62-win season – its sixth straight sub-.500 campaign. As such, it’s unclear just how aggressive the White Sox will be this winter, but Hahn noted that he hasn’t ruled out pushing for contention in 2019. “It’s not unintentional having the flexibility we enjoy going forward,’’ Hahn said. “That was a secondary goal of the rebuild, to make sure we had flexibility and economic strength when the time was right to spend and add on to what we’ve accumulated. Whether we use it this offseason or next we’ll see.’’
  • The Rangers addressed their rotation Friday by acquiring left-hander Drew Smyly from the Cubs, though Texas still has plenty of work remaining to bolster its starting staff for 2019 and beyond. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News examines a dozen free-agent pitchers the Rangers could target this offseason. Among the candidates, longtime Angels right-hander Garrett Richards stands out as a “perfect fit,” opines Grant, who argues the Rangers should offer him a two- or three-year contract with incentives. Given that Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July, he might not be able to contribute at all in 2019. However, that’s not necessarily a problem for the Rangers because they’re unlikely to win next season, Grant notes, adding that Richards may be able to help them in 2020 – when they could be closer to contention.

NL Notes: Correa, Arenado, Suzuki, Mattingly

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If you haven’t yet come across this recent profile of former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, via SI’s Ben Reiter, then you’ll certainly want to give it a read. The analytical guru ended up in federal prison after impermissibly accessing the computer systems of the Astros. While he’s still mostly remaining silent on details of that stunning episode, Correa offers a fascinating glimpse into his time behind bars.

The latest from the National League:

  • While it’s hard to see the 2018 campaign as anything but a success for the Rockies, the organization faces some tough decisions in the offseason to come. One of those involves franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. As Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports, extension scenarios have yet to be discussed by team and player. Arenado’s arb salary will force the sides to the bargaining table, but it’s not yet clear whether there’ll be a clear path to a long-term deal. It is certainly possible to imagine a trade scenario, though that’d be a tough call to make for the organization. For his part, Arenado says he loves playing in Colorado and anticipates remaining with the organization, but does acknowledge that “things can get a little iffy because of the business side of it.”
  • As he wraps up his contract with the Braves, backstop Kurt Suzuki tells Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link) that he’d like to find a way back into the fold. The Atlanta organization has already struck a deal to retain Tyler Flowers, who has combined with Suzuki to form a solid and cost-effective duo. Continuing that situation surely holds some appeal, though it’s also quite reasonable to expect that the Braves front office will look into the acquisition of a top-tier option behind the dish. [RELATED: 2018-19 Market Snapshot: Catcher]
  • Even as the Marlins make some changes to their coaching staff, they haven’t given indication that they’ll replace skipper Don Mattingly in his post. That said, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that there hasn’t been any effort on the part of the team to extend Mattingly’s contract, which is entering its final season. It’s certainly possible that’ll still come to pass, though it would hardly be surprising if the club preferred instead to maintain the status quo.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Evans, Hernandez, Freese

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The Rockies’ season came to a disappointing end tonight, as the Brewers swept them out of the NLDS in three games.  While Colorado can be proud of two straight years of postseason baseball, Nolan Arenado’s future may be the biggest issue looming over the team as its offseason begins.  There has been speculation that the Rox could consider trading the superstar third baseman rather than let him walk as a free agent once his contract is up after the 2019 season, assuming an extension can’t be reached.  (Though the chances of an offseason trade seem doubtful, as surely the Rockies must be figuring on contending again in 2019.)  For his part, Arenado told The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter links) and other reporters that offseason contract discussions are less important to his winter activities than his family’s Wiffle Ball competition, saying bluntly “I expect to be here next season. The future is bright here.”

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Former Giants GM Bobby Evans tells the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he would like to be considered for the other open general manager jobs around baseball, though since he still has 15 months remaining on his contract in San Francisco, he is happy to take on whatever role assigned by the Giants’ next baseball operations head.  Evans would also be understanding if the new GM would prefer if Evans left the organization.  The team’s decision to remove Evans from his former post caught him somewhat off-guard: “I think you’re always surprised when something like this happens because we’ve all worked so closely together for so long and we had three World Series championships together.”  Nevertheless, Evans said “the Giants were fantastic to me for 25 years,” and he defended his front office from the perception that it was somewhat behind in analytical implementation, noting that the team was already in the process of shifting from a traditional scouting-heavy approach to more analytics usage.
  • Enrique Hernandez has become the definition of a super-utilityman for the Dodgers, with The Athletic’s Eno Sarris noting (subscription required) that Hernandez’s 118 wRC+ from the 2018 season is the highest of any player who has ever played at least eight different positions in a season.  “If it wasn’t for my defense and the versatility, I’d probably have been stuck in the minors,” Hernandez said.  “At first, it was what got me to the big leagues. After that, it’s what kept me here.”  Hernandez hit .256/.336/.470 with 21 homers over 462 PA, while playing everywhere except catcher and making at least one start at every position except first base.  His bat really began to heat up after adopting a slight step backwards during his swing in May, allowing Hernandez to produce against both left-handed and right-handed pitching, and making him a starter at second base for Los Angeles in all three games of the NLDS.
  • After joining the Dodgers in a trade from the Pirates at the August 31 deadline, David Freese has made a big contribution both on the field and in the clubhouse, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes.  Justin Turner praised Freese as a veteran influence to the Dodgers’ younger players, while manager Dave Roberts appreciated how Freese was open to a part-time role.  Freese “didn’t try to force his way into a leadership role but really bought into what we were doing as far as sacrificing,” Roberts said.  “That minimized the noise.  He was walking the walk.  He just has a way of commanding a room and players respect it.”  As a part-time first baseman and mostly facing left-handed pitching, Freese hit a whopping .385/.489/.641 over 47 PA after coming to L.A.

Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

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With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

  1. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history.  He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance.  Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers.  Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw.  Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark.  The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year.  Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed.  The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward.  A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
  3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs.  But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews.  Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats.  With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
  4. Brandon Belt, Giants:  No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’  Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position.  His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
  5. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame.  With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.
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