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Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard Discusses Impending Free Agency

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Noah Syndergaard made his long-awaited return to the Mets this evening, firing a perfect inning as an opener in tonight’s win over the Marlins. It was the right-hander’s first big league appearance since September 2019, as Syndergaard lost all of last year and almost the entirety of this season recuperating from a March 2020 Tommy John surgery.

Syndergaard is scheduled to hit the open market a couple months from now, setting up one of the more interesting free agency cases of the offseason. At his best, the fireballer is one of the game’s most fearsome starters. He entered play tonight with a 3.31 ERA over 716 career innings, including a 2016-18 stretch in which he worked 368 1/3 frames of 2.81 ERA/2.42 FIP ball.

It’s difficult to know precisely what to expect from Syndergaard coming off two almost completely lost seasons, though. Teams aren’t going to place much emphasis on his results over a lone inning of work, but Syndergaard’s fastball averaged 96 MPH in his return outing. That’s not quite his peak level of arm strength, of course, but it’s sufficient velocity to assuage concerns that his stuff completely evaporated over the long layoff.

After the game, Syndergaard discussed his upcoming free agency with reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic and Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The 29-year-old said he’s “fairly confident” he’ll remain with the Mets beyond this season, although he cautioned that statement was speculative as opposed to an indication the club and his representatives at CAA were on the verge of any sort of agreement.

The qualifying offer is one potential form a Mets’ return might take. New York could tag Syndergaard with a QO, which would be for one year and is expected to land in the $19-20MM range. If Syndergaard accepted the offer, he’d lock in another year in Queens. Were he to reject and sign elsewhere, the Mets would receive a draft choice as compensation.

Unsurprisingly, Syndergaard didn’t directly answer whether he’d accept a QO if offered. But he told reporters he’d “be extremely grateful” to be tagged with a QO, adding that that outcome would be “definitely something I’m hoping for.” That’s a bit counterintuitive on the surface, since being attached to draft pick compensation could have something of an adverse effect on Syndergaard’s market. It’s possible he’d simply appreciate the symbolism of the offer as a show of faith on the Mets’ part in his ability to bounce back next season. And a QO would at least give Syndergaard and his reps an additional option; players tagged with a QO have ten days to decide whether to accept, giving them some time to explore the market early in free agency while having a solid one-year salary available as a fallback.

Syndergaard is one of two key QO decisions the Mets will have to make this winter. They’re reportedly leaning towards offering one to outfielder Michael Conforto in spite of his generally disappointing 2021 campaign. There’s certainly merit to the idea of potentially bringing back both Syndergaard and Conforto on significant one-year deals. If they were to get a healthy season from Syndergaard and/or a Conforto bounceback next year, those salaries would look plenty reasonable and they’d be significant boons to the club’s hopes of putting this year’s second half swoon behind them and competing in the NL East.

Were both players to accept, however, that’d push the Mets’ guaranteed payroll up to around $175MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, before accounting for an arbitration class that’ll include the likes of Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. Those raises would take the Mets right up to or perhaps even past this season’s estimated $203MM player tab, and that’s without considering the possibilities of extending Marcus Stroman or Javier Báez and making outside upgrades. That’d leave the front office — and its still-unknown incoming president of baseball operations — potentially looking to trade away some established members of the roster, unless owner Steve Cohen is willing to dramatically ramp up spending in his second year atop the franchise.

Mets Reinstate Noah Syndergaard From 60-Day Injured List

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Noah Syndergaard is finally back in the majors, as the Mets have reinstated the right-hander from the 60-day injured list.  Syndergaard will start the second game of New York’s doubleheader with the Marlins today, and officially act as the 29th man for the twin bill.  Catcher Chance Sisco was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

It was almost exactly two years ago that Syndergaard last pitched in a big league game, tossing seven innings in a 7-6 Mets win over the Braves on September 29, 2019.  The former All-Star then underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and was initially projected to return around midseason, but a bout of elbow inflammation delayed Syndergaard’s return even further.

Now, the man they call “Thor” will only make a cameo appearance or two in the Mets’ final few games, though Syndergaard will surely feel comforted by getting some proper game action under his belt before another long offseason.  Syndergaard isn’t expected to work as a true starting pitcher, as he will serve as an opener today and could see work out of the bullpen for any other appearances.

Syndergaard’s extended absence was far from the only thing that went wrong for the 2021 Mets, and given how some pitchers don’t look quite themselves in their first outings back from TJ surgery, it isn’t any guarantee that a healthy Syndergaard would’ve provided a midseason boost even if he had met his projected recovery time.

Between a 2017 season that was limited to 30 1/3 innings due to injuries, and now the 2020-21 campaigns, Syndergaard has already endured three lost seasons in his brief MLB career.  When he has been able to pitch, Syndergaard has looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm, posting a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 20.7 K-BB% over 716 innings from 2015-19.

It makes for one of the winter’s more intriguing free agent cases, as Syndergaard will hit the open market at the end of the year.  An argument can certainly be made that the Mets should issue a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, as a one-year contract in the $20MM range is a worthy investment for a frontline pitcher and Thor might be apt to take such a deal as a pillow contract to set himself up for a longer-term deal in the 2022-23 offseason.  Retaining Syndergaard would also provide some rotation depth in the event that Marcus Stroman leaves in free agency.

On the other hand, the Mets might have some natural reservation about committing $20MM to a pitcher who has missed essentially two full years.  With Robinson Cano’s contract returning to the books, the Mets will have less payroll space to either re-sign such noteworthy free agents as Stroman, Syndergaard, Javier Baez or Michael Conforto, or to acquire suitable replacements for the roster.  Then again, owner Steve Cohen might not consider the luxury tax threshold to be an impediment for the Mets’ to-be-determined next president of baseball operations, and Cohen might be more motivated to spend big after his club’s disappointing season.

From Syndergaard’s perspective, he’ll at least get a bit of a showcase to prove that he is healthy, even if a handful of innings won’t necessarily assuage the concerns of any interested teams looking to sign him this winter.  His free agent market could be hampered by the specter of draft pick compensation if he did reject the QO, but Syndergaard’s ceiling is high enough that an enterprising team could still be willing to take the plunge on more than one guaranteed year.

New York claimed Sisco off waivers from the Orioles in June, and the catcher appeared in only five games with the Mets at the big league level.  Sisco had some respectable numbers in part-time duty with the O’s over the last two seasons, but his defensive struggles and a big lack of production at the start of 2021 led the Orioles to part ways with the former top prospect.  For the season as a whole, Sisco is hitting only .149/.241/.189 over 83 combined plate appearances with New York and Baltimore.

Mets Notes: Syndergaard, deGrom, Baez

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Noah Syndergaard could be back on the Mets’ Major League roster on Tuesday, per Tim Healey of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). Syndergaard made two rehab appearances, setting him up for a week in the Mets’ bullpen before the offseason. The 73-81 Mets have not much to play for in this final week of game action, but there may be a small victory in once more seeing Thor suit up in a Mets’ uni before he hits free agency this winter. Syndergaard has not pitched in the Majors since 2019.

In other Mets’ news…

  • Jacob deGrom continues to work his way back to full health after a frustrating and somewhat obfuscating extended absence. The Mets’ ace went on the injured list for the second time 71 calendar days ago. It wasn’t clear at the time that he would be out long-term. He threw a bullpen session recently, which could put him on track to make one appearance this year, per Healey. Once a clear-cut Cy Young frontrunner, deGrom is likely to finish the year with a 1.08 ERA/1.23 FIP across 15 starts totaling 92 innings.
  • Javier Baez would be very much open to returning to the Mets next year to continue playing alongside his countryman and close friend Francisco Lindor, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Baez has put up an exceptional .303/.377/.538 line since joining the Mets, adding up to an impressive 4.3 rWAR/3.6 fWAR total for the year. The polarizing star will be an unrestricted free agent without a qualifying offer attached, so while he enjoys playing alongside his pal in New York, it may come down to a question of price point. For the Mets the issue is allocation of resources, as they already has Jeff McNeil and Luis Guillorme under team control, as well as Robinson Cano coming back from suspension. As well as Baez has played, the Mets may have greater needs elsewhere.

 

Injury Notes: Syndergaard, Cueto, Strasburg

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Noah Syndergaard is close to returning and might jump straight to the big leagues without another rehab assignment, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The fireballer has had no shortage of obstacles to deal with this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and started his first rehab stint in May of this year. Unfortunately, that assignment was stopped when Syndergaard experienced some elbow inflammation and he didn’t get back on the mound until late August. Due to the small amount of time remaining in the season, the plan then was for him to return as a reliever, rather than the lengthier process of getting stretched out to start. But that second rehab assignment was shut down when he tested positive for COVID-19.

Despite the fact that there are only two weeks left in the MLB season now and the Mets seem to be fading out of the playoff picture, Syndergaard’s form in the remaining games is potentially very important for both he and the team. The 29-year-old is about to enter free agency and is a candidate for a qualifying offer. The quality and quantity of his appearances in the next two weeks could impact the club’s decision about whether or not to hand him that qualifying offer, as well as Syndergaard’s decision about whether or not to accept it.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Johnny Cueto is nearing a rehab assignment, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. The 35-year-old has been out since September 1st with an elbow strain but is scheduled to throw a bullpen tomorrow. It’s unclear what the rehab plan for Cueto is, but there’s not a lot of time left in the season for him to be stretched out as a starter. The Giants have largely been able to weather the storm without him, clinging to a narrow lead in the NL West in spite of having the occasional bullpen game. The club has of late been using a four-man rotation of Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani. Cueto has been solid when healthy this season, throwing 112 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.09.
  • The plan for Stephen Strasburg is for him to begin throwing in November and be ready for spring training, Nationals manager Dave Martinez tells Todd Dybas of Inside the Clubhouse. Despite the Nationals stripping things down at this year’s deadline, it seems the club may be attempting a quick return to contention, as evidenced by their holding onto Juan Soto and targeting MLB-ready returns in their trades. A big wild card in that plan will be Strasburg’s health. The 33-year-old is a dominant pitcher when at his best, as evidenced by his excellent 2019 season, wherein he threw 209 innings with an ERA of 3.32 and then added 36 1/3 postseason innings with an ERA of 1.98, helping the club win the World Series and garnering himself World Series MVP honors. It was on the heels of that incredible performance that the Nationals and Strasburg agreed to a seven-year, $245MM contract. However, since then, the righty has only been able to throw 26 2/3 innings due to various injuries, most recently going under the knife for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome.

Noah Syndergaard Tests Positive For COVID-19

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Noah Syndergaard has tested positive for COVID-19, per several reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday Sports. The righty was scheduled to make a rehab appearance today as he continues his arduous journey back to the big leagues, which he hasn’t seen in almost two years. Instead, it will be yet another setback in a year full of them for Syndergaard.

Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020, it’s been nothing but stops and starts for Thor in 2021. He initially started a rehab stint in May but was shut down after just two starts due to elbow inflammation. He then began a second rehab stint on Thursday, throwing just one inning, with the aim of returning as a reliever since there’s no longer enough time in the season to get properly stretched out as a starter. Now he will have to put everything on pause again due to this positive test.

This is yet another disappointment in a month full of them for the Mets. After leading the NL East for much of the season, they’ve gone 7-19 in August and now find themselves 7 1/2 games behind the Braves, with the Phillies in between them. They were already facing a difficult decision with Syndergaard, given that he’s approaching free agency and is a candidate for a qualifying offer. If healthy, he is a potential top-of-rotation starter and certainly worth the money. But the club will have to judge his health based on whatever small sample of work he can produce in the dwindling number of remaining games. With yet another setback, the sample they will use to make that decision has now gotten even smaller.

NL Injury Notes: Syndergaard, Betts, Kelly, Hoerner, Peralta

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Noah Syndergaard is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week, according to Tim Healey of Newsday Sports. As was previously reported, the Mets are planning on having the hulking righty return as a member of their bullpen, since there’s not enough time remaining in the season for him to be stretched out as a starter. This would be his second rehab assignment of the year, as he attempts to work his way back from undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He had previously had a rehab stint in May, before being shut down due to elbow inflammation. It’s now been almost two years since his last big-league appearance, which was September 29th of 2019. The final few weeks of the season will be tremendously important for both Syndergaard and the Mets. The team needs all the help they can get to pull themselves out of their current nosedive. Despite having the division lead in the NL East as recently as August 5th, they are now in third place and seven games behind the Braves. As for Thor, he is a few weeks away from entering free agency for the first time and could help his own case by showing some health and effectiveness before the season ends.

More from around the NL…

  • The Dodgers are planning on reinstating Mookie Betts from the injured list on Thursday, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The outfielder has been dealing with hip pain all year and is currently in the midst of his second IL placement this season because of it. Despite the nagging hip situation, Betts has still been tremendously valuable when on the field. In 87 games this year, he’s hitting .277/.378/.521, for a wRC+ of 143. Getting him healthy will be a huge boost to the Dodgers as they attempt to chase down the Giants and make up the 2 1/2 games that separate them in the race for the NL West crown.
  • The Dodgers could also welcome Joe Kelly back into the fold this week, per Castillo. Kelly was placed on the IL without explanation on August 10th, but a source of Castillo’s confirmed that it was because of a positive COVID test. The righty has seemingly recovered, given that he started a rehab assignment on Friday. He’s done some quality work this year, throwing 29 2/3 innings of 3.34 ERA ball. The bullpen could use his fresh arm, since it’s recently put Garrett Cleavinger and Evan Phillips on the 10-day IL, as well as Jimmy Nelson going under the knife for season-ending Tommy John surgery earlier this month.
  • Nico Hoerner left the first game of his rehab assignment today because of tension in his oblique, per Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. Hoerner and the Cubs can afford to play things cautiously, as they are well out of the playoff picture at this point. But the infielder has only been able to play in 39 games this season due to various injuries and would surely like to get some more reps before the winter. The club would also surely love to get more looks at him in action, given that they are going into an offseason with so many potential variables after parting ways with so much of their previous core. When on the field, he has had been effective at the plate this year, slashing .313/.388/.388, producing a wRC+ of 113. He’s also played second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field, meaning that he could fit into the club’s future plans in a variety of ways.
  • Freddy Peralta played catch today, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Peralta went on the IL on Thursday with shoulder inflammation and will be eligible to return this coming weekend. The righty is in the midst of an exceptional breakout season, as he’s thrown 121 1/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA and superb strikeout rate of 34%. Among all pitchers with at least 120 innings this season, that’s the fourth-best ERA and fourth-best K%. The Brewers don’t need to rush him back, as they are 7 1/2 games ahead of the Reds in the NL Central. But assuming he can keep his shoulder in good shape, he’ll form one third of a potentially deadly playoff rotation, alongside Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Noah Syndergaard Likely To Work In Relief Upon Return From Injured List

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The Mets have been without Noah Syndergaard over the past two seasons as a result of his March 2020 Tommy John surgery. He’d embarked upon a minor league rehab assignment in May, but renewed elbow inflammation forced the club to shut him down for an additional six weeks.

Syndergaard is throwing again in hopes of a late-season return, but it seems the setback has cost him a chance at making it back as a starter. General manager Zack Scott suggested this evening the team is hoping to get the hard-throwing righty back as a reliever at some point next month (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Allowing Syndergaard to work in shorter stints upon his return would reduce the amount of time he’ll need to ramp up arm strength in preparation. The 28-year-old still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment, and he’ll surely need multiple weeks to build back up even if he’s working toward a bullpen workload. With a little less than eight weeks remaining in the season, it seems the club would rather shorten that process and get Syndergaard back in some capacity as quickly as possible.

The Mets got good work from the starting rotation early in the season, but that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. Since July 18 — when New York placed Jacob deGrom on the injured list due to forearm inflammation — Mets starters have a 5.79 ERA that ranks 26th leaguewide. Marcus Stroman and Tylor Megill have pitched well lately, but Taijuan Walker has been bombed over his past five starts and Rich Hill hasn’t missed bats since being traded to New York.

deGrom was shut down from throwing for two weeks following his own setback on July 30. The two-time Cy Young award winner is still hoping to pitch this season, but he’s facing similar time pressures as Syndergaard. There’s no indication at this point that the Mets are considering bringing deGrom back as a reliever as well. That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty regarding his projected timetable.

The Mets’ rotation woes have contributed to a disastrous few weeks that has seen them fall to third place in the NL East. New York is still only 2.5 games back of the Phillies (and a half game behind the Braves), so there’s plenty of opportunity to right the ship. Getting some sort of contributions from Syndergaard — even if it’s not in the role hoped for entering the season — would be a nice boon to their chances of climbing back atop the division.

The final two months of the year are also critical to Syndergaard personally. He’s slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. His late-season form will certainly have an effect on the market he’ll find. Before the injury woes, Syndergaard looked like one of the top starting pitchers in this year’s class thanks to a 3.73 ERA/3.25 FIP between 2018-19.

East Notes: Rays, Walls, Yankees, Britton, Mets, Peterson, Syndergaard

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The Rays have activated Taylor Walls from the injured list, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move comes after Luis Patino was optioned back to Triple-A yesterday. Walls would give manager Kevin Cash a five-man bench, which would be unusual for the Rays. Still, for now, Walls is back on the active roster, having recovered from a bout of wrist tendonitis. Certainly, the return of Walls puts the immediate future of Wander Franco into question, though there’s been no indication of a roster move at this time. For what it’s worth, Walls held his own with a .222/.337/.333 line in 95 plate appearances, good for a 96 wRC+to pair with stellar marks on the defensive side of the ball — he was credited with 8 DRS, 2.0 UZR, and 2 Outs Above Average in just 214 1/3 innings at short. Staying on the East Coast…

  • Zack Britton is throwing off the mound today for the first time since going on the injured list. He is eligible to return to the Yankees on Monday, per Kristie Ackert of the NY Daily News (via Twitter). Britton has just five appearances on the season. The Yankees might very well try to get him back into games ahead of the All-Star break so as to allow for a measured ramping up process.
  • As for the Mets, David Peterson has been diagnosed with a strained right oblique that will keep him out for around eight weeks, at best guess, but maybe less, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). It hasn’t been a great year for Peterson, who owns a 5.54 ERA/4.77 FIP through 115 starts totaling 66 2/3 innings.
  • Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, was throwing today, but he timetable remains the same. The Mets are looking tentatively at a September 1st return for Thor, notes DiComo.

Mets Shut Noah Syndergaard Down For Six Weeks

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Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard will be shut down from throwing for the next six weeks due to inflammation in his right elbow, manager Luis Rojas announced to reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Syndergaard, who is working his way back from 2020 Tommy John surgery, exited his most recent minor league rehab start due to elbow discomfort. Tests did not reveal any damage to Syndergaard’s ulnar collateral ligament, but today’s announcement still marks a substantial setback. He’ll need to build back up once he resumes throwing in mid-July, meaning the earliest he’d be able to return to the big league rotation is likely some point in August.

The Syndergaard setback is the latest in a rather remarkable deluge of injuries the organization is attempting to weather. While the pitching staff hasn’t been hit as hard as the lineup, the looming promise of a Syndergaard return nevertheless stood as a potential boon for the club as it tries to patch the roster together while a whopping 17 players are on the injured list.

The Mets’ rotation has been excellent, anchored by yet another dominant performance from two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. Mets starters have pitched to a collective 2.94 ERA on the season, ranking fifth in baseball. They also have the game’s fifth-best strikeout percentage (28.1 percent) and the seventh-lowest walk percentage (7.1 percent).

That said, it’s been a top-heavy group. Each of deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman has turned in a sub-3.00 ERA (sub-1.00, in deGrom’s case), but young David Peterson has worked to a 4.91 mark in 44 innings while the fifth spot has been a revolving door. Carlos Carrasco, like Syndergaard, has yet to pitch this season and is said to still be “weeks” away from his potential Mets debut, and another rotation option, Jordan Yamamoto, was placed on the 60-day injured list yesterday.

The setback, of course, is worrisome for Syndergaard on a personal level as well. He’s in his final season of club control and was already facing a best-case scenario of just under four months to showcase his health in advance of free agency. He could now be looking at closer to a six-week audition window — perhaps longer if the Mets reach the postseason.

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