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Nick Senzel

Nick Senzel Done For Season Due To Torn Right Labrum

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Nick Senzel’s season is over, as the Reds outfielder has suffered a torn right labrum, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans reports (Twitter link).  Senzel has missed four of Cincinnati’s last seven games due to the shoulder injury, and only took one plate appearances over the other three games.

Senzel will finish with a .256/.315/.427 slash line and 12 homers over 414 plate appearances, while also stealing 14 bases in 19 chances.  With only an 89 OPS+ and wRC+, it wasn’t quite the big breakout the Reds and their fans were hoping for from one of the game’s top prospects, though it’s worth noting that a sprained ankle suffered late in Spring Training kept Senzel from taking the field until April 23, and delayed his Major League debut until May 3.

Perhaps most troublingly, the 24-year-old is already amassing a rather lengthy injury history just four years into his pro career.  Senzel played just 44 total games (all at Triple-A) in 2018 due to a broken finger and a bout of vertigo, which also cost him time in 2017.  The Reds were going to send Senzel to the Arizona Fall League for more seasoning, only to drop those plans when elbow surgery sidelined him for much of October and November of last year.

Through it all, Senzel also had to take on a brand-new position, as Cincinnati shifted him into center field duty.  Since he’d never played center field prior to 2019, Senzel’s slightly below-average defensive metrics (-2.1 UZR/150 and -1 Defensive Run Saved) are actually more than respectable.  It seems likely that the Reds will continue to use Senzel in center going forward, though now that Scooter Gennett is no longer in the picture, one wonders if the club would consider having Senzel split time between both second base and center field.  Senzel’s original third base position, of course, is blocked by slugger Eugenio Suarez.

It isn’t known if Senzel will require shoulder surgery, though president of baseball operations Dick Williams suggested Thursday that Senzel could be ready for Spring Training either way (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Selected as the second overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel’s hitting ability has been highly regarded since his days at the University of Tennessee.  Senzel hit .312/.388/.508 with 28 home runs over 1028 PA in the minors, including an .853 OPS over 231 PA at the Triple-A level.

Nick Senzel Leaves Game With Right Ankle Sprain

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5:22PM: Senzel’s sprain doesn’t seem to be particularly serious, as Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that he believes Senzel will be ready to go after the All-Star break.  This sprain is in a different area than the ankle injury that previously took Senzel out of action in Spring Training, Bell noted.

3:13PM: Reds outfielder Nick Senzel exited Sunday’s game prematurely after suffering a right ankle sprain, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The rookie appeared to snag a cleat on the center field fence while he was going after a Carlos Santana fly ball in the first inning. He played out the rest of the first inning and went on to take an at-bat in the bottom of the inning, but did not take the field for the second inning.

The severity of the sprain is not yet clear—ankle sprains can vary in seriousness and recovery timetable, though it’s notable that the injury wasn’t reported as a high ankle sprain, which tend to be more worrisome. At any rate, the timing of the injury is probably a best-case scenario, with the All-Star break affording Senzel and the Reds the next handful of days off.

Senzel, just 24 years old, has emerged as a key cog in the Reds’ lineup after debuting in May. In addition to slotting into the all-important leadoff spot and providing passable offensive output, Senzel has played exclusively in center field, a premium defensive position, in the Majors.

In Sunday’s game, Senzel was replaced in center field by Jesse Winker, who started the game in left field. Moving forward, the Reds should have several options to fill in for Senzel, should he require an IL stint. Phil Ervin has excelled as a reserve and could get starts in left field with Winker moving to center. Otherwise, Derek Dietrich, Jose Peraza, and Josh Vanmeter all have experience in the outfield. Scott Schebler, whom Senzel replaced in center following the former’s abysmal April showing, remains in the minors and is an option in center field.

Reds Promote Nick Senzel

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The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of Nick Senzel, making the promotion of one of baseball’s premier prospects official. Senzel will join the active roster in place of right-hander Matthew Bowman, who has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Cincinnati transferred Scooter Gennett from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Senzel is in today’s lineup, batting second.

Nick Senzel | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

There’s been a sense that this move was coming since earlier in the week when MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported the possibility, which has built a steady sense of anticipation among Reds fans in recent days. Senzel, the No. 2 overall pick in 2016, entered the season ranked as one of the top 10 overall prospects in baseball and has sufficiently recovered from the late-March ankle injury that sidelined him. He’s not off to a blistering start in Triple-A by any means, hitting .257/.316/.371, but he’s generally been viewed as an MLB-ready bat despite that tiny eight-game sample.

Drafted as an infielder, he’s moved to the outfield in order to fast-track his arrival on the MLB roster, and he should step directly into the Reds’ everyday center field role, hopefully jump-starting what has been a stagnant offensive unit of outfielders. Scouting reports on Senzel laud his potential for above-average tool across the board, including a 65- or even 70-grade hit tool. He’s walked at a solid clip throughout his minor league career and has never had a major issue with strikeouts over a large sample, suggesting that he has the discipline to complement that hit tool and serve as a middle-of-the-order bat for years to come.

A career .312/.388/.508 hitter with 28 homers and 40 steals in 239 minor league games, Senzel should provide an upgrade over Scott Schebler in center, as the 28-year-old Schebler has slumped to a woeful .127/.258/.228 slash to open the season. There will be some growing pains on the defensive side of things, as Senzel only began playing the outfield in game settings this spring and has been sidelined for a bit this year. He was originally slated to get his feet wet in center field during the Arizona Fall League last year, but he instead required surgery to remove a pair of bone spurs from his left (non-throwing) elbow. That capped off a frustrating, injury-filled year for Senzel, who also missed time due to vertigo symptoms and a fractured finger.

The Reds has already reassigned Senzel to minor league camp when he incurred the aforementioned ankle injury, meaning he was destined for Triple-A to start the year. However, the ankle issue sidelined him long enough that there was never any question about whether he’d accrue enough service time in 2019 to reach free agency as quickly as possible. Senzel can’t earn more than 151 days of MLB service in 2019, meaning the Reds effectively control him for seven years rather than six. Assuming he’s in the big leagues for good, Senzel will be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player following the 2021 season and won’t be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason.

It remains to be seen just how the Senzel promotion will impact playing time for the rest of the Reds’ outfielders. Jesse Winker is the only one of the incumbent bunch who has been at all productive to this point in the season (.224/.315/.490), while each of Schebler, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig has struggled. Puig still figures to see the lion’s share of at-bats in right field, given his age and track record, which could largely relegate Kemp and Schebler to pinch-hitting and occasional starts based on platoon matchups.

Reds Reportedly “Contemplating” Near-Term Promotion Of Nick Senzel

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The Reds are “contemplating” a call-up for top prospect Nick Senzel, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The much-hyped 23-year-old could make it onto the roster as soon as this Friday, per the report.

Senzel might already have forced his way onto the MLB roster, but he had to overcome an injury incurred shortly after being optioned down late in camp. The Cincinnati organization had decided not to carry him on its Opening Day roster owing to some combination of a desire to give Senzel more time to adapt to playing in the outfield and service-time considerations.

The second overall pick of the 2016 draft, Senzel has thrived at the plate ever since joining the profession ranks. He carries a smooth .900 career OPS through just over a thousand trips to the plate at all levels. Expectations are that he’ll be a quality all-around performer right from the jump in the majors.

While the Reds understandably wanted to give Senzel a chance to get comfortable on the grass, where he’s moving after appearing almost exclusively as an infielder, the club needs to do everything possible to keep pace in a brutal NL Central division. It remains to be seen how the roster will be sorted once Senzel is up, but odds are he’ll receive the lion’s share of time in center after appearing there exclusively thus far this season at Triple-A.

Having waited to this point, the Reds are not at risk of allowing Senzel to accrue a full year of MLB service this season. That means the earliest he could qualify for free agency would be after the 2025 season. Should Friday prove to be the day for Senzel’s arrival, he could reach up to 150 service days this year, which would put him on track for eventual Super Two qualification.

Prospect Notes: Hernandez, Sheffield, Senzel, Bichette, Vlad Jr., Luzardo

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Here’s the latest on some prospects of note from around the game:

  • The Red Sox brought up top pitching prospect Darwinzon Hernandez for his first taste of the majors, with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reporting the move. Hernandez, a 22-year-old from Venezuela, still needs to iron out his command but has shown some impressive swing-and-miss capabilities. It was on display tonight, as he allowed five baserunners but also racked up four strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings in relief.
  • Left-handed pitching prospect Justus Sheffield will join the Mariners on Friday for his first action with his new club, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports on Twitter. He’s expected to piggyback with Yusei Kikuchi for a start; it’s possible he’ll be dropped back to Triple-A thereafter, though that’s not yet clear. While he already has 13 days of MLB service on his odometer, Sheffield won’t be able to reach a full year of service even if he stakes a permanent claim to a big-league roster spot. Sheffield hasn’t been himself thus far at Triple-A, carrying an 11:14 K/BB ratio through 18 1/3 innings.
  • It’s possible the Reds will soon welcome top prospect Nick Senzel to the majors. As Fletcher Page of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, Senzel is back in the lineup at Triple-A after recovering from a sprained ankle. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be promoted in the near-term, but the organization doesn’t have much cause to hesitate at this point. Senzel can no longer achieve a full year of MLB service in 2019; the club is sitting at five games under .500 and can’t wait long to make its move. Once Senzel gets his timing down and gets comfortable in the outfield — he’s lined up in center field tonight for Louisville — he’ll likely be called up.
  • The Blue Jays got some unwelcome news on exciting infield prospect Bo Bichette. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported on Twitter that Bichette had suffered a broken hand. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets, the fracture was to the second metacarpal of his left hand. Widely considered one of the game’s very best prospects, Bichette will now need to get back to health before he can begin pressing for a major-league promotion. Meanwhile, anticipation grows that teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will soon get the call; Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs tweets that some around the game anticipate it’ll come this week.
  • Top Athletics prospect Jesus Luzardo is beginning to work back toward the hill, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). He’s moving from 75 feet to 90 feet tomorrow, so it’s still rather early in his progression back from shoulder soreness. Slusser estimates that it could take four to six weeks before the prized southpaw could be ready for game action. In all likelihood, he won’t be seen as a candidate for a MLB promotion until he has at least a few Triple-A starts under his belt and the club feels confident there aren’t any lingering issues with the joint.

NL Central Notes: Moustakas, Pirates, Senzel, Reds

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Brewers infielder Mike Moustakas will try to play through a fracture in the tip of his right ring finger, and is hopeful of avoiding an injured list stint.  (Todd Rosiak of Milwaukee Journal Sentinal was among those to report the news.)  Moustakas suffered the injury yesterday while fielding a ground ball and left the game after the sixth inning.  X-rays were negative, though Moustakas isn’t in the Brewers’ lineup today.  The third baseman-turned-second baseman has received mixed reviews at his new position depending on which defensive metric you prefer — the Moose has a +3.9 UZR/150 but minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved over 137 1/3 innings as a second baseman this season.  No matter the position, Moustakas has continued to hit, with six homers and a .239/.349/.549 slash line through 83 plate appearances.

Some more from around the NL Central…

  • Pirates manager Clint Hurdle and GM Neal Huntington updated the media (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) on the status of several injured Bucs players.  A collision between Starling Marte and Erik Gonzalez during Friday’s sent both men to the injured list, with Gonzalez on the 60-day IL with a broken collarbone and Marte to the 10-day IL with abdominal wall and quadriceps bruises.  While Marte has the shorter timeline on paper, Huntington wasn’t certain when Marte could be back in action.  Corey Dickerson isn’t yet ready for a minor league rehab assignment as he recovers from a shoulder strain, while Gregory Polanco (labrum surgery) could potentially make his season debut sometime this week.
  • In other Pirates injury news, the team placed catcher Jacob Stallings on the 10-day IL with a cervical neck strain.  Stallings’ roster spot will be filled by Einar Diaz, who was activated off the IL after recovering from a virus that sidelined him for two weeks’ worth of Spring Training action.
  • Top Reds prospect Nick Senzel is scheduled to play in his first Triple-A game of the season on Tuesday, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  Senzel was sidelined late in Spring Training with an ankle injury, so it will end up being roughly a month-long absence for the infielder-turned-center fielder.  Senzel has already been playing some extended Spring Training games, and will now return to Triple-A Louisville after posting an .887 OPS in 193 PA at the top minor league level in 2018.  The Reds are expected to promote Senzel at some point this season, though they’ll first want to see the 23-year-old get an extended stretch of good health, as Senzel has been plagued by a variety of injuries over the last year.
  • The Reds’ starting pitching has looked much better this season than in the last several years, and catcher Tucker Barnhart feels part of the reason for the improvement is an increased focus on analytics.  Under new manager David Bell and new pitching coach Derek Johnson, discussions with Reds coaches are “more numbers-driven now,” Barnhart tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  “They’re more percentage-driven, and more based on exit velocities and probable outcomes. Things like that. I still trust my eyes, but in the back of my mind there are always the percentages of what’s supposed to work. You’d be naive not to fall back on that, especially if you’re stuck calling a pitch.”

Nick Senzel Out Several Weeks Following Ankle Injury

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Top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, who was recently reassigned to minor league camp, incurred a right ankle sprain while sliding into second base during a minor league game and will be in a walking boot for seven to 14 days, the team announced. As president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Senzel will require multiple weeks to get back up to speed once he’s out of the boot.

Cincinnati assigned Senzel to minor league camp earlier this week — a move that was met with noted protest from agent Joel Wolfe, who called the decision a “simply egregious case of service-time manipulation” in a statement to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Whether the move was indeed fueled by service time — the Reds can at least plausibly maintain that they’d like Senzel to continue getting reps in center field after shifting there from the infield just this spring — the injury will definitively keep in the minors long enough for the Reds to garner an additional year of club control over the former No. 2 overall draft pick (2015). Assuming Senzel is called up to the Majors later this season and sticks, he’ll be controlled through the 2025 season and, depending on the exact date he’s called up, would be eligible for arbitration after either the 2021 season (if he’s a Super Two player) or the 2022 season.

With Senzel sidelined, Scott Schebler will now get a lengthier look as the primary center fielder with the Reds to begin the 2019 season. He’ll be flanked by Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig and (more occasionally) Matt Kemp in the outfield for at least the first few weeks of the season.

Reds Reassign Nick Senzel To Minor League Camp

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The Reds announced a slew of players who’ve been reassigned to minor league camp Friday, headlined by top prospect Nick Senzel. Cincinnati’s decision to do so has prompted a response from Senzel’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who spoke harshly of the organization’s decision to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

“I don’t believe I’ve ever made public statements on this issue in my career,” said Wolfe, “but I feel compelled to do so in this case where it feels like a simply egregious case of service-time manipulation. We are well aware of the mandate from ownership for the Reds to win this year — and this seems to fly in the face of it. The NL Central was decided by one game last year. Every game matters. This is a shortsighted move that may be frugal now but could cost them dearly later.”

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams, unsurprisingly, told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic that the decision was not tied to service time (Twitter link).

The Reds’ Senzel decision is, at the very least, more defensible than some recent service-driven minor league assignments (e.g. Kris Bryant, Eloy Jimenez, Ronald Acuna). Senzel is learning a new position on the fly after being moved from the infield to center field, and injuries limited him to just 44 games last year while also preventing him from taking place in the Arizona Fall League.

That said, Senzel is hitting .308/.300/.462 with six doubles and four stolen bases in 39 spring at-bats thus far, and he batted .310/.378/.509 as a 22-year-old in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching last season. There’s an argument  that Senzel’s bat is ready for big league work, and the timing of his promotion to the big leagues will be an interesting situation to monitor in the coming weeks. The Reds would only need to keep Senzel in the minors for just over two weeks in order to secure an extra year of club control over the 2016 No. 2 overall draft pick.

Regardless of whether the move is service-driven, the Reds are well within their rights to make it and are arguably even wise to do so. The fact that they’re hoping to be more competitive and contend for a postseason berth in 2019, as Wolfe suggested, does muddy the waters a bit, and the Reds will unquestionably receive their share of criticism if they call Senzel up early in the season and narrowly miss the playoffs.

However, the current service time constraints were collectively bargained long ago and were not addressed in the latest wave of negotiations between the league and the MLBPA, thus maintaining a clumsy and antiquated system that is a disservice to virtually every party other than ownership. The game’s best young players are often held down longer than need be, slowing their path to significant earnings, while fans are deprived from seeing rising stars on the game’s biggest stage. Even front offices are left to make thinly veiled and often transparent statements to their fans, knowing full well that they’re setting themselves up to incur an angry backlash. It’s an out-of-date mechanism that would be better served to be restructured, and it’s likely to be a focal point as the league and union begin preliminary discussions well in advance of the next wave of the current CBA’s expiration.

In other Reds news, Cincinnati skipper David Bell announced that right-hander Tyler Mahle will open the season as the team’s fifth starter while Alex Wood heals up from back spasms that have plagued him throughout the spring (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Wood’s injury isn’t expected to sideline him long, so he may only be in line for a small handful of starts before either shifting to a bullpen role or heading back to Triple-A to continue making regular starts.

NL Notes: Tatis, Senzel, Rox, Reynolds, Braves, Folty

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As a consensus top three farmhand in baseball, shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. may be able to help the Padres from the outset of the season, but he’s no lock to make the team. After all, by keeping the 20-year-old in the minors until at least mid-April, the Padres would gain an extra year of control over him. Nevertheless, the Padres’ highest-profile player, Manny Machado, is hopeful Tatis will join him on Opening Day to comprise the left side of their infield, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required). “If he’s in there, we’re going to be a dangerous team, and I think we’re all rooting for him to break camp with us,” said Machado, an experienced shortstop who’s set to hold down third base for the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM contract with them last month. Meanwhile, manager Andy Green isn’t ruling out Tatis for the Padres’ season-opening roster, but he cautioned: “In (Tatis’) case, he’s a couple months above Double-A ball. He’s had two incredibly slow Aprils that unbelievable seasons followed. “So, there’s some context there that we’re going to factor into the equation that other people probably aren’t.” 

  • As is the case with Tatis, Reds prospect Nick Senzel could be an early season victim of service time manipulation. Senzel’s also trying to learn a new position, center field, as he entered the spring with no game experience there. Already, though, “it’s become clear” Senzel has the ability to handle the position, manager David Bell said Sunday (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Regardless of whether Senzel’s in center for the Reds from the get-go, the 24-year-old seems like a good bet to see the lion’s share of time at the position for the Reds this year. Senzel’s customary spots – second and third – are spoken for, whereas there’s no established center fielder blocking him in Cincinnati.
  • Although he only landed a minor league contract in free agency, first baseman Mark Reynolds is a near certainty to make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (subscription required). If so, he’ll be the primary backup to first baseman Daniel Murphy, another offseason pickup for the club. The 35-year-old Reynolds was teammates with Murphy last season in Washington, where the former turned in a solid .248/.328/.476 line in 235 plate appearances after signing a minors pact with the Nationals in April.
  • Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has been down with elbow soreness, but it’s “expected” he’ll resume throwing Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. Foltynewicz isn’t on track to serve as the Braves’ Opening Day starter, but it appears he’ll be able to make his regular-season debut sometime during the first week of the campaign. The 27-year-old will attempt to build on a breakout 2018 showing in which he pitched to a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP with 9.93 K/9, 3.34 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent groundball rate over 183 innings.

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.
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