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The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians Announce ALDS Roster

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The Guardians defeated the Rays in the Wild Card round and will now face the Yankees in the ALDS. They have announced their roster for the second round, with a few changes from last time. Right-hander Nick Sandlin and left-hander Kirk McCarty have been replaced by righties Aaron Civale and Cody Morris. The full roster breaks down like this…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catcher

Infielders

Outfielders

The removal of Sandlin is not surprising, as it was reported yesterday that he has a strain in his upper back/shoulder that will keep him out of action for the remainder of the postseason. That will deprive the Guardians of a reliever who tossed 44 innings in the regular season this year, posting an ERA of 2.25 while getting grounders on 55.9% of balls in play.

McCarty was one of two lefties on the club’s Wild Card roster and his removal for the ALDS leaves Hentges as the only southpaw for the Guards to deploy against the Yankees. The Yankees have a lineup that leans right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo and Matt Carpenter the only two who hit exclusively from the left side. They also have a handful of switch-hitters in Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera and Marwin Gonzalez. McCarty registered a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 frames at the big league level this year, though a much better 3.58 ERA over 65 1/3 innings in Triple-A. Hentges, on the other hand, had an outstanding campaign, throwing 62 innings with a 2.32 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 61.5% ground ball rate. He also tossed the last three scoreless innings in the club’s 15-inning 1-0 victory over the Rays on Saturday.

Both Civale and Morris have the potential to give Cleveland some length, whenever they are needed. Civale made 20 starts this year and threw 97 innings. His 4.92 ERA isn’t especially impressive, though a lot of that damage was done over his first six starts. Since mid-May, he’s had a much more respectable 3.24 ERA. Morris missed the first few months of the season with a shoulder strain but eventually made 16 appearances between the majors and minors, which included five starts in the big leagues. This year’s ALDS features a unique schedule where there are off-days after the first and second games, with the final three being played on consecutive days, if necessary. After going with Quantrill, Bieber and McKenzie in the first three games, the Guardians could potentially turn to Quantrill on regular rest in game four and then Bieber on short rest in game five. Civale and Morris could contribute multiple innings at some point over the series, depending on how it progresses.

Pitching was the big storyline in the series against Tampa, as Cleveland held onto narrow victories of 2-1 and 1-0 in the Wild Card round. They will be facing a more potent offense this time around though, as Tampa’s .239/.309/.377 batting line for the year was just a hair above average, as evidenced by their collective 101 wRC+. The Yankees slashed .241/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 115, the fourth-best mark in the majors.

Zack Meisel of The Athletic was among those to relay the roster changes prior to the official announcement.

Guardians’ Nick Sandlin Will Miss Remainder Of Postseason

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Guardians righty Nick Sandlin has been diagnosed with a strain in his upper back/shoulder and will miss the remainder of the postseason, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Cleveland will need to swap him out for the next round of postseason play. Starter Aaron Civale, who took the ball in the final regular-season game and was thus left off the Wild Card roster, will likely be added, though depending on other moves the team wishes to make, right-hander Cody Morris could be a candidate to join the fray as well. The team will have until tomorrow morning to make a formal decision on who’ll take Sandlin’s roster spot.

The loss of Sandlin is a notable one for Cleveland, even if the 25-year-old —  like much of the Guardians’ roster — is far from a household name. The 2018 second-rounder made his big league debut in 2021, when he tossed 33 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball, and has had similar success in 2022.

While this year’s 22.8% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate were steps back from 2021 levels (34% and 12.1%, respectively), Sandlin also saw his ground-ball rate spike from 41.7% to a whopping 55.9%. He tossed 44 innings of 2.25 ERA ball out of the Cleveland ’pen, including a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 26-to-6 K/BB ratio over his final 24 1/3 frames.

The Guardians haven’t formally announced the injury, a treatment plan or a potential timeline, but they’ll likely provide more details in the days to come. For now, what’s immediately clear is that their powerhouse bullpen will take at least a slight hit in their American League Division Series date with the Yankees. The bullpen — and the pitching staff in general — will still remain an unquestioned strength, however. Even with Sandlin sidelined, Cleveland can turn to righties Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges in leverage spots — all four of whom had ERAs of 2.69 or better and strikeout rates of 28.4% or higher.

Injury Notes: Nick Sandlin, George Springer

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Guardians righty Nick Sandlin departed yesterday’s win over the Rays with right upper arm tightness, reported by Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. Sandlin has a small history of shoulder problems, missing the last month of the 2021 season with a right shoulder strain, but it is unclear of the exact nature of his new ailment.

Sandlin, playing in his second major league season, improved upon his strong rookie season (2.94 ERA in 33 2/3 innings) and pitched to a robust 2.25 ERA in 46 appearances this season, allowing only 2 homers in 44 innings pitched. He has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters,  holding them to a measly .149/.265/.238 line.

With the Guardians earning a trip to the ALDS following their two-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, Sandlin will have two days to recover before facing the New York Yankees. If he is unable to return to the field, right-handed Aaron Civale, a notable omission from the Wild Card roster, is a possible candidate to replace him on the postseason roster.

In other Wild Card series injury news, Blue Jays outfielder George Springer was carted off the field in yesterday’s game following a collision with shortstop Bo Bichette in the eighth inning.  Blue Jays interim manager John Schneider said in his postgame conference that the All-Star center fielder, who signed a six-year, $150MM contract with the Jays prior to the 2021 season, was “doing ok” and that Springer was going to “be evaluated for a couple of different things,” per Julia Kreuz of MLB.com. Schneider followed up by saying that the team would know more about Springer’s injury in the next few days.

Springer has had another successful year, slashing .267/.342/.472 en route to his fourth All-Star game appearance while playing slightly above average defense in center, earning one Outs Above Average. With the Jays ending their 2022 season following yesterday’s defeat to the Mariners, Springer will have a few months to recover before the start of the 2023 season.

Indians Activate Shane Bieber From Injured List

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Sept. 24: Bieber has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, the Indians announced Friday. Righty Nick Sandlin is being transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster spot. Cleveland also reinstated Amed Rosario from the bereavement list and optioned infielder Ernie Clement and lefty Francisco Perez to Triple-A Columbus.

Sept. 22: Shane Bieber will return to the Indians to start Friday night’s game against the White Sox, interim manager DeMarlo Hale told reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). It’ll be his first appearance since June 13. He’s on the 60-day injured list, so a corresponding 40-man move will need to be made, although that can be accomplished by simply transferring Wilson Ramos from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL in the wake of his season-ending knee injury.

The 26-year-old Bieber was placed on the 10-day injured list back on June 14 due to a right shoulder subscapularis muscle strain. The reigning American League Cy Young winner hadn’t been quite as dominant as he was during 2020’s 60-game sprint, but he’d still impressed with 90 2/3 frames of 3.28 ERA ball prior to landing on the injured list. Bieber’s 33.9 percent strikeout rate, while still among the best in the league, was down from last year’s remarkable 41.1 percent showing. His 8.6 percent walk rate marked a slight increase over last year’s 7.1 percent clip.

Bieber’s injury was a major factor in Cleveland’s downfall in the American League Central standings this season, although had he been the lone member of the rotation to fall to an injury, perhaps the club could’ve withstood the loss. Instead, he was joined by both Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac for lengthy stays on the injured list, forcing the Indians to lean heavily on a group of rookie starters who spent much of the season looking overmatched.

At this point, any postseason hopes for Cleveland have been dashed, but there’s still some value in getting Bieber a few innings to close out the year on a high note. Pitching in a game setting without experiencing any lingering or recurring symptoms will allow both Bieber and the team to head into the offseason with greater confidence that the right-hander’s injury won’t carry over into the 2022 season. As a first-time arbitration-eligible player, Bieber surely appreciates the opportunity to pick up a few more innings to help offset the missed time.

Looking to 2022, Bieber will return to front a rotation that again looks to be stocked with quality young arms. The aforementioned Civale gives the club a strong No. 2 option behind Bieber, and while young Triston McKenzie was clobbered for seven runs in his most recent appearance, he’s shown some extended flashes of brilliance this year and looks well on his way to settling into the rotation as well. Plesac’s 2020 numbers look increasingly like an outlier, but even if that’s the case, he presents a solid fourth option. Cal Quantrill, meanwhile, has a 3.05 ERA (albeit with a 4.18 FIP) in 115 innings out of the rotation. Right-hander Eli Morgan hasn’t fared particularly well in his debut campaign but does have sound numbers in Triple-A. He’ll be a fine depth option moving forward, and the Indians have also at least gotten some big league exposure for depth options like Sam Hentges, J.C. Mejia and Logan Allen this year as well.

Minor MLB Transactions: 4/30/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Indians have selected right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin’s contract, Zack Meisel of The Athletic was among those to report. Sandlin joined the Indians as a second-round pick in 2018, but he has thrown just 50 1/3 innings in the minors since then, owing in part to a forearm strain in 2019 and the canceled minor league season in 2020. The 24-year-old submariner has been effective in the minors when healthy, having put up a 2.68 ERA with 74 strikeouts and 18 walks. MLB.com ranks Sandlin 30th in the Indians’ system, writing that “[h]e has a high floor as a multi-inning reliever and the upside of a back-of-the-rotation starter.”
  • The Pirates have released catcher Christian Kelley, Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Kelley had been with the Pirates since they chose him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft, but he hasn’t made it to the big leagues yet. The 27-year-old topped out at Triple-A in 2019 and hit .179/.251/.282 with five home runs in 281 plate appearances.
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