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Nick Pivetta

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Nick Pivetta

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The Blue Jays are involved in the market for Nick Pivetta, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re one of a handful of teams that has been linked to the 6’5″ righty. The Reds, Mets and incumbent Red Sox have also been linked to Pivetta this offseason.

Pivetta, who is a native of British Columbia, is one of the better unsigned starting pitchers. He’s one of three pitchers — alongside Corbin Burnes and Sean Manaea — who remain free agents after declining the qualifying offer. There was some surprise that the Red Sox risked the $21.05MM QO, but that proved a prescient decision in what has been a bullish market for starting pitching.

The 31-year-old (32 in February) has been an innings eater in the middle of the Boston rotation for the past few seasons. Pivetta struggled early in the 2023 campaign and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he excelled late in the year to earn his way back to the starting five. He took the ball 27 times this past season, working to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings. Pivetta missed some time early in the year with a flexor strain. That was the first non-virus injured list stint of his MLB career, though, and he returned without issue by the middle of May.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season. His run prevention has landed in the low 4.00s in consecutive seasons, and he carries a 4.09 mark in 288 1/3 frames since the start of 2023. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk rates have always been more intriguing than the ERA might suggest. He has punched out 30% of opponents with a solid 7.3% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by Pivetta’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in all seven seasons of his MLB career.

There’s value in the durability and solid run prevention marks that Pivetta has provided the Red Sox. Some teams could still view him as a potential #2 or high-end #3 starter based on the stuff and swing-and-miss ability, feeling they can make some tweaks to help him more effectively stay off barrels. Speculatively speaking, his camp could look to beat the three years and $67MM which Luis Severino recently secured from the Athletics.

The Jays have shown some level of interest in virtually every free agent of note. They’ve yet to pull off an especially significant free agent move. Their only signing is a two-year, $15MM deal to bring back reliever Yimi García. Toronto took on the final five years and $97.5MM on Andrés Giménez’s contract via trade with the Guardians at the Winter Meetings. That’s a significant expenditure, but the front office surely continues to juggle multiple free agent pursuits.

Toronto is among the three teams (alongside Boston and San Francisco) most frequently mentioned as landing spots for Burnes. They’re certainly not going to bring in Burnes and Pivetta, so the latter is potentially a fallback target who’d allow them to devote more money into one or two lineup upgrades. The Jays have looked for a starter to join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis in the Opening Day rotation. That’d allow them to use Yariel Rodríguez in relief, indirectly upgrading a bullpen that remains a huge weakness despite the García pickup.

The Blue Jays are believed to have cut their payroll narrowly below the luxury tax threshold at the end of the ’24 season. That reduces the penalty they’d pay to sign Pivetta or any other free agent who rejected the QO. Toronto would forfeit its second-highest pick of the 2025 draft plus $500K from the ’26 bonus allotment for international amateur players.

Reds Showing Interest In Nick Pivetta

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As starting pitchers continue to fly off the shelves, Nick Pivetta is one of the more established starters remaining on the open market. He’s already been linked to the Mets, and today the Reds have emerged as another suitor. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported earlier today that the Reds have checked in on Pivetta, implying their interest might have heightened after they missed out on trade target Garrett Crochet.

The Reds have already been active on the starting pitching market this offseason. They extended a qualifying offer to Nick Martinez in November, which he accepted. Not long after, they acquired Brady Singer from the Royals in exchange for Jonathan India. Along with young arms Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott, that gives the Reds five capable big league starters, in addition to top prospect Rhett Lowder. Nonetheless, it’s not hard to understand why president of baseball operations Nick Krall is still pursuing starting pitching.

Abbott and Lodolo both finished the 2024 season on the injured list. Greene came off the IL in time to make two short starts at the end of the year, but he was out from mid-August to late September. All three have shown promise when healthy, but none has pitched a full MLB season. The same is true of the veteran Martinez, who has played a hybrid starter-reliever role for most of his MLB career. If the Reds sign Pivetta, they’d be much better equipped to weather an injury to one of their starters. In a best-case scenario in which everyone is healthy on Opening Day, Martinez can pitch out of the bullpen while Lowder starts the year in the minors. If Lowder forces his way onto the Opening Day roster with a strong spring, new manager Terry Francona could be facing a logjam, but that would be a pretty good problem to have.

That said, it would be slightly surprising to see Cincinnati sign Pivetta given the numerous other areas of need for Krall to address. The Reds finished among the bottom half of teams in runs scored this past season. They ranked 21st in OPS and 26th in wRC+. They recently traded India, one of their better offensive players in 2024, and have not made any additions to the starting lineup. Considering they already have six contenders for five spots in next year’s rotation, one might think the Reds would put most of their remaining resources toward improving the offense. To that end, they have been linked to trade candidates such as Luis Robert Jr., Josh Naylor, and Lane Thomas.

Earlier this offseason, Reds chief operating officer and chief financial officer Doug Healy told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that his team would “maintain payroll levels at or above 2024.” That’s a vague and noncommittal statement, but it does seem to imply that a major increase in payroll is unlikely. So, it’s fair to wonder if Reds ownership would be willing to spend what it takes to sign Pivetta and bolster the offense. After all, RosterResource estimates that their payroll for 2025 ($101MM) is already slightly higher than their final payroll from 2024 ($100MM).

Pivetta is most likely seeking a multi-year deal similar to those Luis Severino signed with the A’s (three years, $67MM) and Yusei Kikuchi signed with the Angels (three years, $63MM). Meanwhile, Thomas is projected to earn $8.3MM and Naylor $12MM in 2025. Robert will earn $15MM in the final guaranteed year of his contract. All three of those salaries are team-friendly figures; a similarly impactful position player would cost significantly more in free agency. Will Krall have the financial flexibility to offer Pivetta an AAV above $20MM and still acquire an impact bat?

Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.

Mets Interested In Eovaldi, Manaea, Pivetta, Flaherty

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The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents.  Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics.  New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.

Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon.  Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.

Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal.  Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers.  MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.

Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series.  The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons.  The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.

Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit.  The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February).  However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.

MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract.  It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23.  This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.

Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander.  There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency.  Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.

The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits.  Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services.  Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher.  This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent.  Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings.  This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent).  Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.

Free Agent Faceoff: Luis Severino/Nick Pivetta

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The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.

The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.

Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.

The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.

Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.

He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.

If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

Breslow: Red Sox Looking To “Raise The Ceiling” In Rotation

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The Red Sox look to be one of the top suitors for impact starting pitching. As teams laid the groundwork for the offseason at this week’s GM Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox are evaluating ways to land a top-flight starter.

“We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation,” Breslow said (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). “I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”

The most straightforward solution is through free agency. Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell headline the rotation class. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea all project as mid-rotation arms and should be available on shorter-term deals based on their ages. Eovaldi is probably looking at a two-year pact with a lofty annual value, while Manaea and Kikuchi should get three or four years.

Snell and Burnes are the unquestioned aces. Fried is a little more of a borderline ace but he’d slot into the top two spots in any rotation. Flaherty has flashed ace-caliber ability, albeit with less consistency. They’d all project as the #1 starter in Boston. The Red Sox have a group of quality mid-rotation starters but don’t have a true #1 arm.

Tanner Houck is the closest thing to an ace among the internal options. He’s coming off an excellent year, turning in a 3.12 ERA through 30 starts. Houck’s profile is built more around huge ground-ball numbers than swinging strikes. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford each took 30+ starts with earned run averages narrowly below 4.50. They fit into the middle of a rotation. So does Lucas Giolito, who’ll be back after missing all of 2024 due to elbow surgery. Giolito has performed like a #2 starter at his best, but home run issues led him to post an ERA approaching 5.00 in both 2022 and ’23.

The Sox are awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on whether he’ll return. Boston somewhat surprisingly tagged Pivetta with a $21.05MM qualifying offer. The right-hander has until November 19 to decide whether to accept. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that while Pivetta is weighing the QO, he has found a nice market in free agency’s opening days.) As with the rest of the Sox’s in-house options, he projects as more of a third or fourth starter. Pivetta has the strikeout and walk profile of a top-end arm, but he has been very susceptible to the longball over his career. He has been a durable source of innings but doesn’t have a single sub-4.00 ERA showing on his résumé.

Boston has a few interesting depth arms beyond that. Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts performed well when called upon. Garrett Whitlock could be back from UCL surgery in the second half, though his injury history could point to a return to the bullpen. Quinn Priester is a former top prospect who hasn’t put things together at the MLB level.

The Red Sox have good rotation depth, especially if Pivetta accepts the QO. There’s certainly value in not giving starts to sub-replacement level pitchers. The Sox are well positioned to do that, but it’d be difficult to compete for an AL East title without having a legitimate #1 starter.

Boston should have the payroll capacity to make a run at one of the top starters. They also have the high-end prospect capital to push for any trade candidates. Garrett Crochet could be the prize of the rotation trade market. He flashed ace upside in his first season as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are likely to move him this offseason. Chicago GM Chris Getz said they’ll target position player help in trade returns.

Boston has four hitters who landed among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects. A trade involving top 10 talents Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer would be a shock, but catcher Kyle Teel or breakout infielder Kristian Campbell could center a return for a high-end starter. Boston could also deal lefty-hitting outfielder Wilyer Abreu for pitching help if they’re confident Anthony will be a productive MLB player next year.

There’s been some speculation about the Sox moving young first baseman Triston Casas as well, but Breslow shot that notion down this week. “I’m not sure where that’s coming from,” Boston’s front office leader said (X link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). “Casas is a guy that we think has 40-home run potential. He’s young and also has a great strike zone discipline and controls an at-bat. We’re excited he’s on our team.”

In addition to the rotation pursuit, Boston needs to land bullpen help. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each hit free agency. While a Martin return is possible, Jansen is almost certainly signing elsewhere. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and could pitch in the ninth inning behind Rule 5 breakout Justin Slaten. There’s room for another leverage arm, especially one who throws left-handed.

Breslow acknowledged that the Red Sox are looking for lefty bullpen help to add a late-inning arm alongside Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino (Smith link). Breslow also spoke generally about wanting to add velocity and a swing-and-miss element to the relief group. Boston relievers ranked 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in swinging strike percentage this year. Free agency’s top reliever, Tanner Scott, is a lefty who throws in the upper 90s and misses bats in bunches. He’s well above the rest of the left-handed class, so he could command a four-year deal that exceeds $50MM.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

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