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Cubs Select Daniel Palencia

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The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Daniel Palencia, a move first reported by Marcos Grunfeld of El Emergente. The full slate of moves, as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, also sees infielder Patrick Wisdom activated from the injured list. In corresponding active roster moves, infielder Nick Madrigal has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain while right-hander Hayden Wesneski has been optioned. To open a spot on the 40-man for Palencia, righty Brad Boxberger was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Palencia, 23, was originally a prospect with the Athletics, but came over to the Cubs in the 2021 trade that sent lefty Andrew Chafin to Oakland. He’s worked mostly as a starter, but the club recently converted him to relief work upon promoting him to Triple-A.

The results there have been mixed, as he’s posted an ERA of 7.90 through 13 outings. That’s a small sample and there might be some fluky bad luck in there, considering his 50.9% strand rate. He’s struck out 27.3% of batters faced while walking 10.6%. His 4.09 FIP suggests he has deserved better results than he’s actually gotten so far. The Cubs will give him a shot at getting big league hitters out and hope that the wheel of fortune spins in a better direction for him going forward.

Madrigal left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness and will sit out the next 10 days. It’s unclear how severe his injury is, but the upcoming All-Star break would allow him to miss only a handful of games if it’s on the minor side. He’s only struck out in 9.6% of his plate appearances but has just one home run, producing a .278/.335/.364 batting line. His roster spot will go to a hitter with the opposite profile, as Wisdom has 14 homers but a massive 38.9% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .196/.285/.467.

As for Boxberger, he’ll been on the injured list since May 14 due to a right forearm strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, meaning he can technically return after the All-Star break. But since he hasn’t yet started a rehab assignment, that doesn’t seem especially likely, making this transaction a mere formality.

Cubs Reinstate Kyle Hendricks, Option Nick Madrigal

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May 25: The Cubs have announced to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that Hendricks has been officially reinstated with Nick Madrigal optioned in a corresponding move.

May 24: The Cubs are going to be reinstate right-hander Kyle Hendricks from the injured list, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay the information from manager David Ross. Hendricks will start Thursday’s game against the Mets.

Hendricks, 33, will be making his first major league appearance in almost a year. He last climbed the hill on July 5 of last year, after which he was placed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. Initial MRIs didn’t reveal any structural damage but he was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear. The tear was relatively small and didn’t require surgery, but he has nonetheless required a lengthy period of time to get back to full health.

The righty had spent many years as a reliable cog in the Cubs’ rotation prior to falling off a bit in recent seasons. From 2014 to 2020, he logged over a thousand innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 20.8% strikeout rate in that time was on the modest side but he showed excellent control with a 5.3% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.5% clip. That also included several strong postseason starts, such as 2016 when he took the ball five times with a 1.42 ERA and helped the Cubs win the World Series for the first time in over a century. He’s now the only Cubs player from that curse-breaking club that’s still on the roster.

In 2021 and 2022, however, he posted a combined 4.78 ERA with all of his rate stats worsening by a bit. He stuck out 17.3% of batters faced while walking 6% and getting grounders on 41% of balls in play. Hendricks has been rehabbing in recent weeks, making five starts with a 5.75 ERA in that time. However, most of that damage came in the first two outings, as he had a 1.69 ERA in the final three. Only time will tell what sort of results he can post at the major league level after the long injury layoff.

The Cubs’ starters have a collective 3.93 ERA this year, which places them 10th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly are all posting good results, though Jameson Taillon has an 8.10 ERA through seven starts. There’s surely a lot of bad luck in there given his .369 batting average on balls in play and 50% strand rate, leading to a nicer 4.93 FIP and 4.52 SIERA. He’ll undoubtedly have a long leash to figure things out since he just signed a four-year, $68MM deal this winter. Hendricks figures to take the rotation spot of Hayden Wesneski, who was recently optioned after posting a 5.03 ERA through eight starts.

The performance of Hendricks in the remainder of this season will impact the club on the field but also from a business perspective. He and the club signed a four-year $55.5MM extension going into 2019, with 2023 being the final guaranteed season. He’s making $14MM this season and the club has a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.

Cubs Notes: Madrigal, Wesneski, Leiter Jr.

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Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal has only played second base in his big league career thus far, but he’s not likely to see a lot of time there this year. The club’s major investment this offseason was signing shortstop Dansby Swanson, thus pushing Nico Hoerner over to second base. That nudged Madrigal into a competition for time at third base this spring, one in which he seems to have held himself well.

“He’s got to hit,” manager David Ross tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “He still has to perform. That goes for just about everybody. He has missed a lot of time, but he looks really good and his timing looks good. We’ll see how camp plays out, but I definitely think he’s answered questions at third base. There’s no hesitation to put him in there.”

For his part, Madrigal also feels good about how things are going. “I’m focused one day at a time,” Madrigal said. “I’m feeling really good at the plate. Defensively, I feel like it’s all coming together. My body’s in a completely different spot this year compared to last year. I’m just looking forward to what’s ahead.”

Madrigal was hitting .305/.349/.425 for the White Sox in 2021 when a significant hamstring injury ended his campaign. Nonetheless, the Cubs acquired him in the Craig Kimbrel trade at that year’s deadline. Unfortunately, injuries hampered him yet again in 2022, as he made multiple trips to the IL and hit just .249/.305/.282. As noted by Ross, Madrigal will have to hit to hold onto that third base job, but it sounds like the club is fine with him from a defensive standpoint. Should he struggle at the plate, he’ll likely be fending off challenges from players like Christopher Morel, Zach McKinstry and Miles Mastrobuoni. Patrick Wisdom could also be a factor, though he might be getting some more time in the outfield corners with Seiya Suzuki set to begin the season on the IL.

More news out of Cubs camp…

  • The Cubs will also be deciding who their fifth starter is, with Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly and Justin Steele taking the first four spots. It’s viewed by many to be a race between Hayden Wesneski and Adrian Sampson, but Mooney reports that Wesneski is pulling away right now. Sampson, 31, had a nice season for the Cubs in 2022, posting a 3.11 ERA in 104 1/3 innings. However, he’s struggled badly so far this spring, giving up eight home runs in 8 1/3 innings, leading to a 14.04 ERA. Wesneski, 25, has been much better, throwing 8 2/3 scoreless frames with 11 strikeouts. Spring stats tend not to mean too much in the grand scheme of things, but it could be enough to push Wesneski ahead in this case. He also has the higher upside of the two, given he’s younger, has six remaining years of club control and is generally considered one of the club’s top prospects.
  • Another decision the Cubs will have to make is whether or not to give right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. a roster spot. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports that Leiter has an opt-out in his contract that would allow him to return to free agency if he’s not added by March 30, which also happens to be Opening Day. The righty has a solid season for the Cubs last year, tossing 67 2/3 innings over 35 appearances with a 3.99 ERA. However, he exhausted his final option year and had reduced roster flexibility, perhaps contributing to getting outrighted off the roster in January. He elected free agency but returned to the Cubs on a minor league deal.

The Cubs’ Third Base Options

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The Cubs have made a number of additions to their lineup, none more impactful than the signing of Dansby Swanson at shortstop. That pushed Nico Hoerner over to second base. Chicago also brought in Cody Bellinger to play center field, signed Tucker Barnhart to share time with Yan Gomes at catcher in place of Willson Contreras, and added Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer for the first base/designated hitter mix.

It was a dramatic overhaul, with the corner outfield tandem of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki the only players whose positions haven’t seemed up in the air at any point. The other position the front office left untouched, third base, looks as if it’ll come down to a battle between a handful of internal options with the free agent market all but picked through. There are two players who have the clearest path to reps at the hot corner in the early going.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom has been the primary third baseman on Chicago’s north side for the last two seasons. He’s tallied just under 700 plate appearances at the position since the start of 2021, handily topping second-place Matt Duffy (204 PAs in 2021). The only other player with even 100+ trips to the dish as a third baseman, David Bote, lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.

Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason (following a cup of coffee with the MLB club the year before), Wisdom has combined for 53 home runs and 41 doubles in 239 games over the last two years. He carries a .465 slugging percentage and .248 isolated power mark over 909 plate appearances, continually making an impact from a power perspective. The right-handed hitter has paired that with significant on-base concerns, however. He’s hit just .217 while reaching base at a below-average .301 rate. That’s mostly due to massive swing-and-miss in his game, as he’s gone down on strikes in 37% of his plate appearances. That’s the highest rate in the majors for any player with as much playing time, narrowly topping Joey Gallo’s 36.6% clip.

Wisdom’s power has been sufficient to manage a slightly above-average slash line in spite of the contact issues. That’s fine production, particularly when paired with the above-average defensive grades he managed in 2021. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average estimated he was well below average with the glove last season, however, leading both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to value his 2022 campaign around one win above replacement.

The 31-year-old has proven he deserves a spot on an MLB roster and the Cubs have made out exceptionally well on their no-risk signing two years ago. Yet the on-base and defensive concerns suggest Wisdom might be better suited as a role-playing power bat who can rotate through all four corner positions off the bench than as an everyday third baseman. He’s been far better against lefties (.238/.329/.533) than against righties (.209/.290/.438) over the past two seasons.

Christopher Morel

If the Cubs were to scale back Wisdom’s playing time, Morel would seem to be the primary beneficiary. The 23-year-old made his major league debut last season and generally impressed, albeit with some of the same question marks facing Wisdom. Morel connected on 16 home runs, 19 doubles and four triples in just 435 trips to the plate. He posted an overall .235/.306/.433 line through his first 113 big league contests. That slightly topped Wisdom’s .207/.298/.426 showing from last season.

That said, Morel also struggled significantly to make contact. He struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. Perhaps more alarming was that he swung and missed at 18.1% of the pitches he saw. That was the sixth-highest rate in MLB (minimum 400 PAs), and those concerns became more pronounced down the stretch. Morel carried an impressive .266/.338/.477 line into the All-Star Break despite a 30.7% strikeout rate. In the second half, his strikeout percentage jumped to 34.2% and he limped to a .194/.269/.376 finish.

At age 23, Morel is certainly capable of taking a step forward as he gains experience against big league pitching. He’s long flashed promising power but posted higher than average strikeout totals throughout his time in the minors. Concerns about his bat-to-ball skills kept him from emerging as a top-tier prospect prior to his debut despite evaluators’ praise for his power potential, athleticism and arm strength. Morel’s an interesting player, but one whose approach could make him a volatile offensive performer. He had reverse platoon splits in 2022, hitting .190/.297/.300 against left-handers against a .251/.313/.470 mark versus righties. That’s too small a sample from which to glean meaningful conclusions, though Wisdom’s more traditional splits could point towards him getting a few more reps against left-handed arms than Morel will.

It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball. Morel played mostly infield in the minor leagues, with third base his primary position. The Cubs bounced him around the diamond at the MLB level but deployed him most often in center field, hoping his speed and arm strength would translate. DRS and Statcast agreed he was a below-average center fielder in spite of his athleticism, as his inexperience at the position was evident. He also drew lackluster marks in limited action on the left side of the infield, though the sample in that case was exceedingly small.

Other Options

While Wisdom and Morel seem the two likeliest candidates to battle for playing time, the Cubs have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster. Miles Mastrobuoni, 27, was acquired from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He has only eight MLB games under his belt but hit .300/.377/.469 with 16 homers and 23 stolen bases in 573 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham last year. He’s primarily been a second baseman in the minors but has experience everywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. His left-handed bat would pair well with the righty-hitting Wisdom and Morel if skipper David Ross wanted to play matchups. Mastrobuoni mashed at a .315/.396/.497 clip while holding the platoon advantage in 2022.

Nick Madrigal was displaced by Hoerner’s move to second base. He had a dismal 2022 season, hitting just .249/.305/.282 in 59 games while thrice landing on the injured list thanks to a back strain and strains of both groins. Madrigal had started the previous season with a solid .305/.349/.425 showing for the White Sox before suffering a season-ending hamstring tear. He’s only ever played up the middle dating back to his time at Oregon State — primarily at the keystone — but third base might be the clearest path to getting his bat in the lineup if the front office is still intrigued by his elite bat-to-ball ability.

His 5’8″, 175-pound frame isn’t the build of a traditional third baseman and that’s been manifested in his below-average arm strength. Perhaps that’s untenable at third base, though the Cubs could at least consider getting him some work at the hot corner to expand his defensive flexibility. It’s also at least worth contemplating whether Hoerner could kick to third base if Madrigal earns everyday playing time but isn’t capable of manning the left side of the infield.

The Cubs also picked up Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers in last summer’s Chris Martin trade. The 27-year-old has just a .208/.269/.384 line in 121 big league games over the last three years. He got 171 trips to the plate for the Cubs down the stretch, hitting .206/.272/.361. McKinstry has the ability to play second, third and both corner outfield spots and is a .323/.401/.550 hitter in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He’s out of minor league option years and has to stick on the active roster or be taken off the 40-man entirely. Given his lack of big league track record, he could find himself on the bubble — particularly if the Cubs want to give Mastrobuoni a lengthier look instead.

There are a handful of players behind this group on the depth chart who’ll be in camp as non-roster invitees. Bote, Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young all remain in the organization after clearing waivers in November. Sergio Alcántara signed a minor league deal this offseason, while former second-round pick Chase Strumpf got an MLB invite after hitting .234/.379/.461 with Double-A Tennessee.

———————-

While there are a few candidates who could play their way into consideration, it’d appear the third base job will be a battle between Wisdom and Morel to open the year. Both have minor league options remaining. The former has a more established big league track record, while the latter probably has greater upside but might also be more likely to post untenable numbers on both sides of the ball. They’re broadly similar as right-handed power bats with OBP concerns, though Morel has a little more defensive versatility if he’s relegated to a utility role.

Central Notes: O’Neill, Paddack, Madrigal

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill missed almost a month in the middle of this season, from mid-June to mid-July, due to a left hamstring strain. He went back on the IL September 17 due to the same injury, a left hamstring strain. At the time, it was reported as a Grade 1 strain, which is the less-serious variety. Regardless, over a week later, an O’Neill return doesn’t seem close.

Team president John Mozeliak was asked about the possibility of O’Neill returning in the postseason and had this to say, per Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest: “I think there’s a shot, but obviously the clock is ticking.” That doesn’t seem to indicate the Cards are banking on a return. The club has now clinched the NL Central but are seven games behind the Mets and Braves, who are tied atop the East, and even further behind the Dodgers. That means they are destined to play in the first round of the playoffs against whoever finishes with the third Wild Card spot. Each round that they survive will increase the chances of O’Neill coming back, but he wouldn’t be able to find a rehab stint with the minor league seasons winding down. Even if he’s healthy, the Cards would have to view a rusty O’Neill as a better option than their current outfielders in order for him to get a shot.

O’Neill had a career year last year by hitting 34 home runs and swiping 15 bases on his way to producing 5.6 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. This year, various injuries have limited him to just 96 games and diminished production when on the field, with his .286/.352/.560 batting line from last year slipping to .228/.308/.392. Without him in the mix, the St. Louis outfield is currently composed of Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Ben DeLuzio.

More notes from the Central divisions…

  • Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him. He was just one of several Twins who missed significant time with injury this year, preventing them from hanging onto the AL Central lead that they held for a good chunk of the year. On paper, the 2023 rotation in Minnesota consists of Sonny Gray, who is sure to have his option exercised, alongside Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for four slots. Kenta Maeda could be a factor for the fifth, though he’ll be an unknown quantity after missing all of this year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery of the internal brace variety. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer both have options that are unlikely to be exercised, subtracting them from the equation. The club could look for outside help given the uncertainty around Maeda, though they will also have internal options like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, Devin Smeltzer and Simeon Woods Richardson, with Paddack hopefully joining them down the stretch.
  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal is on the injured list and won’t be returning this season, manager David Ross tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal landed on the shelf September 10 due to a groin strain, his second groin-related trip to the IL this year. It’s the second straight injury-marred campaign for him, after he was limited to 54 games in 2021 and just 59 here in 2022. He hit .305/.349/.425 last year but saw that line dip to .249/.305/.282 in this campaign. He came into this season with one year and 164 days of MLB service time, meaning he’s a lock to reach arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, though he likely won’t earn a huge raise given all the time he’s missed. The Cubs aren’t likely to be competitive in 2023 but will still want to see Madrigal show better results in order to keep him in their plans going forward.

NL Injury Notes: Madrigal, Wisdom, Dominguez, Eflin, Wheeler, Bryant

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The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain, and activated Patrick Wisdom (left ring finger sprain) from the 10-day IL to fill the open roster spot.  Madrigal suffered the injury in yesterday’s game, and given the lack of time remaining in the season, it isn’t out of the question that Madrigal might be shut down entirely.  This is the second groin injury (the first strain was to Madrigal’s left groin) and third injury overall for the second baseman in 2022, after a back problem cost him three weeks in May.

Overall, Madrigal has played in only 59 games this season, only slightly topping the 54 games he played during a 2021 campaign that was shortened by hamstring surgery.  While Madrigal is still eyed as the Cubs’ second baseman of the future, this health history is already concerning, and it’s fair to say that his injuries were certainly a factor in his .249/.305/.282 slash line in 228 PA this season.  With the Cubs out of contention, their eyes are on 2023, and aren’t likely to push Madrigal back onto the field unless his current groin issue ends up being pretty minor.

Updates on other injury situations from around the National League…

  • Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki) on several injured Philadelphia players, including two pitchers ready to return to the mound.  Seranthony Dominguez will be activated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Nationals, after missing a little over three weeks due to right triceps tendinitis.  Zach Eflin will be activated from the 60-day IL prior to Tuesday’s game, with Eflin possibly working as an opener as he embarks on a new role as a relief pitcher.  Eflin has been out since late June due to knee problems, and with less time to ramp up for a starter’s workload, Philadelphia will instead use Eflin out of the bullpen.  Zack Wheeler (forearm tendinitis) won’t be back until at least September 20, but Wheeler threw 15 pitches off a mound today, and Thomson said Wheeler will throw a proper bullpen session on Monday or Tuesday.
  • Kris Bryant hasn’t played since July 31 due to plantar fasciitis, and Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure if the slugger would be able to return before the season is over.  “There is time but I don’t know if it’s going to happen…He hasn’t had a bat in his hand for a while, but he’s feeling much better,” Black told reporters, including The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  Bryant has been able to play catch and lift weights now that he is no longer in a walking boot, though it remains to be seen when (or if) he’d be able to take part in fuller baseball activities.  Between the platar fasciitis and two separate IL stints due to back injuries, Bryant’s first year with the Rockies has essentially been a lost season, with only 42 games played.  The one bright spot is that Bryant at least hit well when he was able to play, contributing a .306/.376/.475 slash line and five homers in 181 plate appearances.

Cubs Notes: Suzuki, Madrigal, Schwindel, Stroman

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The Cubs have a number of players on the injured list who are nearing their return. The closest to returning is rookie outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who could rejoin the club as early as tomorrow, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Suzuki was the man of the hour in April as his Major League career got off to a bang, slashing .279/.405/.529 across 84 plate appearances in March and April. May was less kind to Suzuki as he hit .211/.279/.338 across 79 plate appearances before landing on the injured list with a right finger sprain. Suzuki has been out for almost six weeks now.

Zooming out, the Cubs are taking stock of what kind of talent they have on hand this season, with Suzuki presumably a part of the long-term outfield picture, along with rookie Christopher Morel and veteran Ian Happ, though Morel and Happ both have enough versatility to move around the diamond a bit. Another piece of that long-term position player picture is second baseman Nick Madrigal, who plans on taking live batting practice on Tuesday, notes Bastian. Madrigal missed three weeks with a back issue and returned to the lineup for just under two weeks before landing back on the shelf with a groin strain that’s kept him out of action for another three weeks.

This season was supposed to be a time for Madrigal to establish himself along with Nico Hoerner as the middle infield of the future in Chicago. Madrigal wasn’t hitting much, with just a 45 wRC+ through 115 plate appearances. That said, he wasn’t having much batted ball luck (.264 BABIP). He was striking out a little more than usual – though with a 14.3 percent strikeout rate, he was still putting the ball in play far more often than the average Major Leaguer. It’s a small sample size on which to judge Madrigal, and the Cubs would love to see him return soon to start taking ABs back from David Bote and Andrelton Simmons.

First baseman Frank Schwindelwill join Madrigal for some batting practice on Tuesday as he aims to return from a couple of weeks away with a lower back strain. Swindel’s long-term role on the Cubs is less obvious, given that he’s already 30 years old, but he’s also not likely to be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season. Schwindel could turn into an interesting trade piece, but he’ll have to hit better upon his return. Currently, Frank the Tank owns just an 83 wRC+ on the year. As a right-handed first baseman/designated hitter, Schwindel will need to hit in order to generate much value, be that on the diamond or in a trade.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs have a pair of starting pitchers in Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly who will make rehab starts this week. Smyly begins his rehab with a start in Single-A on Monday, while Stroman is closer to returning to Wrigley, pitching for the Iowa Cubs in Triple-A. All of the Cubs’ veteran additions to the rotation have struggled to stay healthy this season, with Stroman and Smyly making nine starts apiece thus far, while Wade Miley has taken the hill just four times.

Injury Notes: Rays, Cubs, Angels

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The Rays placed starter Drew Rasmussen on the 15-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to June 12) with a left hamstring strain. Ralph Garza Jr. was recalled to take his roster spot. The 26-year-old Rasmussen has been solid for Tampa over 12 starts, posting a 3.41 ERA/3.90 FIP across 58 innings. Garza has been a frequent call-up for Kevin Cash’s club, making 11 appearances with a 3.27 ERA/4.64 FIP over 22 innings. He’ll return to his spot in the bullpen for now. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a left groin strain. The move was retroactive to June 12th. The Cubbies were lauded for their acquisition of the 25-year-old, but he has yet to find his stride in Wrigleyville, hitting just .222/.263/.250 through 115 plate appearances. He’s been solid defensively, however, posting 3 DRS without making an error thus far. Veteran Jonathan Villar has taken over at the keystone in Madrigal’s absence, with Andrelton Simmons and rookie Christopher Morel also seeing some run there.
  • The Angels are nearing a decision point about Anthony Rendon, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Rendon has missed four games because of the same wrist that caused him to miss 12 games earlier this month. If he can’t get back in the lineup soon, the Angels won’t have much choice but to put him back on the shelf. A litany of setbacks has kept Rendon from achieving his Nationals form over his three-year tenure with the Angels. So far this season, he was slashing .228/.324/.383, not a bad mark overall (106 wRC+), though still lacking in the power department.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Payroll, Simmons, Madrigal

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After a 15-run loss at the hands of the Reds yesterday, the Cubs dropped into fourth place in the NL Central at 18-26. Chicago’s early performance hasn’t been too far off preseason expectations. After the Cubs watched much of their previous core depart, the 2022 season looked likely to be a transitional year.

Particularly as playoff contention becomes more far-fetched, it makes sense for the organization to use this year as an opportunity to evaluate potential members of the next competitive Cubs’ team. To that end, manager David Ross indicated this week that Nico Hoerner will be the primary shortstop throughout the season (link via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). That’s in spite of the club’s offseason signing of Andrelton Simmons to a $4MM deal.

“Nico has proven that he can play big-league shortstop pretty consistently already in this season,” Ross said. “Let’s see what happens at the end of the year and assess there. It’s easy to say you can be a big-league shortstop long term, but you also have to do it. You have to prove it. … We’ll move them around a little bit, but Nico will be starting shortstop.”

It’s a sensible course for the organization, as the 25-year-old Hoerner is controllable for another three seasons via arbitration. A former first-round pick, the Stanford product has shown promise on both sides of the ball over the past couple years. Hoerner didn’t hit a single home run in 170 plate appearances last season, but he made contact at a plus rate and reached base at a strong .382 clip. He’s seen a dramatic dip in his walk and on-base numbers early in 2022, but he’s collected a trio of homers — his first since his 2019 rookie season. Hoerner owns a .292/.350/.392 slash line dating back to the start of the 2021 campaign.

Hoerner was a well-regarded prospect, but some evaluators questioned whether he’d eventually need to slide over to second base. He’s split his MLB time nearly evenly between the middle infield spots (with additional cameos at third base and in the outfield), and public defensive metrics have loved his work at both positions. Hoerner has never had a full season’s worth of reps of at shortstop, however, and the likely non-competitive 2022 campaign affords the Cubs an opportunity to give him that challenge.

The team’s evaluation is particularly meaningful when one considers the upcoming free agent class. Chicago elected not to make a major splash at shortstop last time, watching as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, old friend Javier Báez and Trevor Story signed elsewhere. The Cubs, meanwhile, took lower-cost shots on Simmons and Jonathan Villar while turning things over to their internal options.

Next winter’s shortstop class may not be quite as strong, but there’ll be a handful of high-end players yet again. Correa can opt out of his deal with the Twins, while Xander Bogaerts is a near-lock to do the same on his contract with the Red Sox. Trea Turner will hit free agency for the first time, as will Dansby Swanson. The Cubs could be a viable suitor for any of that group, particularly if they’re willing to push payroll upwards to reopen a contention window.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the organization could do just that, writing that they’re “expected to spend again next winter.” That’s not to say the Cubs sat out this past offseason. They signed a staggering 12 players to big league free agent deals, but only Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman commanded especially notable long-term investments. The bulk of the team’s moves were shorter, lower-risk additions on the margins of the roster.

The team’s long-term spending outlook leaves open the possibility for a more aggressive run at top-of-the-market talents a few months from now. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Cubs have around $94MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for 2023. Ian Happ will be in line for a fairly significant arbitration salary — assuming he’s not traded this summer — but the team should otherwise have a fairly light class. That’d leave some room for additions even before reaching the approximate $145MM Opening Day player payrolls of the past two seasons, and the organization has spent north of $200MM on their rosters in the past.

Whether the Cubs dive into the top of the shortstop market could be determined by how Hoerner performs over the coming months. In the nearer term, Hoarder’s regular playing time means Simmons is set to take on an unfamiliar utility role. The 32-year-old has never played a big league inning outside of shortstop (aside from yesterday’s mop-up pitching performance), but Ross indicated he’s likely to see time at second base moving forward.

Simmons is generally regarded as the best defensive shortstop of his generation, and there’s little doubt he can handle second base with similar excellence. Yet he’s coming off a dismal offensive season with the Twins, and there probably won’t be room for him in the regular infield when the Cubs are at full strength. Patrick Wisdom is the primary third baseman, while Nick Madrigal is likely to play regularly at the keystone when he returns from the injured list.

Madrigal has been out for a couple weeks with a lower back issue, but the team announced that he’ll report to Triple-A Iowa for a rehab assignment this weekend (h/t to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Acquired from the White Sox in last summer’s Craig Kimbrel swap, Madrigal has hit just .203/.250/.241 through his first 23 games with his new club. Nevertheless, the contact-oriented infielder is controllable through 2026 and a potential core piece, so he’ll surely be in the everyday lineup once healthy.

Cubs Place Nick Madrigal On 10-Day IL, Select Ildemaro Vargas, Designate Adrian Sampson For Assignment

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The Cubs announced a flurry of roster moves this evening, most prominently sending second baseman Nick Madrigal to the 10-day IL with low back tightness. The team also selected Triple-A infielder Ildemaro Vargas’s contract, designating right-handed pitcher Adrian Sampson for assignment to open up a 40-man roster spot for Vargas.

Madrigal, acquired in last season’s cross-town trade for Craig Kimbrel, was hitting a pedestrian .203/.250/.241 (43 OPS+) at the time of his IL placement. There’s still plenty of time for the 25-year-old to turn it around when he returns to the field, though a few things stick out in his early season offensive performance. Chief among them, Madrigal’s elite contact abilities have eluded him to a notable extent thus far.

His 16.7% strikeout rate, while considerably better than the league average, is more than double his career rate entering the season. The former first-rounder is hitting the ball with more authority than ever, however, which may eventually lead to a more impressive batting line than the one that is currently present. Madrigal’s defense has also remained top-notch, largely offsetting the contact hitter’s lack of offense in the eyes of most defensive metrics.

Vargas meanwhile returned to the organization this winter on a minor league deal and was hitting .279/.321/.413 in 25 Triple-A contests. Offense isn’t Vargas’s calling card though, as his promotion stems from his ability to play all around the infield, a must-have for a three-man Cubs bench.

Sampson, another offseason minor league signee, pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 35 plus innings (10 games) for the Cubs last season as a swingman. Advanced metrics weren’t terribly bullish about his performance however, which helps explain the minor league pact and the right-hander’s lack of opportunity with the big league team this season. The 30-year-old has continued to have a decent run in Triple-A this year, so it will be interesting to see if the Cubs can keep him in their organization as depth or if a team hurting with injuries will seek to claim him in the coming days.

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