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Nick Castellanos

Jeter’s Departure From Marlins Tied To Change In Plans For Post-Lockout Spending

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TODAY: A Marlins source disputes the idea that Jeter left the organization over a change in future spending plans, The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports. There were several other “issues” between Jeter and majority owner Bruce Sherman, including Sherman’s displeasure at low attendance for home games. Sherman had decided against extending Jeter’s contract and thus the parting between the two sides “was more…Sherman’s decision than Jeter’s,” even if it was portrayed as a mutual decision since “Sherman had told an associate it would be difficult for him to publicly fire Jeter.”

FEBRUARY 28: Derek Jeter’s abrupt departure from the Marlins organization earlier this morning stunned the baseball world. Jeter’s citing of a “vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead” prompted plenty of speculation about the team’s spending moving forward, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a change in spending plans indeed served as a tipping point for Jeter (Twitter link). Sherman suggests that Jeter believed there to be as much as $15MM to spend on the 2022 roster after the lockout, but that outlook “evaporated” over the course of the lockout.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were in serious talks with Miami native Nick Castellanos about a homecoming prior to the lockout. The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweets that he’d consistently heard the Marlins were the favorites to sign Castellanos. Those two reports, paired with Sherman’s report, seem to suggest that such a signing is no longer feasible for the Fish. (As an aside, many expect Castellanos to command more than $15MM annually, although the Marlins could have theoretically backloaded a deal to accommodate ownership’s 2022 budget.)

SportsGrid’s Craig Mish tweets that the Marlins are still expected to add to the roster after the lockout, but it seems that perhaps principal owner Bruce Sherman’s vision for the scope of those (and other) forthcoming additions has changed. Discord between Jeter and Sherman has been brewing for a good while longer than just these past couple of months, however, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link), who tweets that there was a “growing divide” dating back to last spring. The mounting differences between Jeter and Sherman, Olney adds, were a key reason that Jeter’s ownership stake in the team did not grow as it had been expected to.

Whether there’d been friction between Jeter and Sherman prior to early 2021 isn’t clear, but if that’s where the pair’s visions began to diverge, there’d be a pretty logical explanation for it. Shortly after Sherman and Jeter’s group purchased the Marlins, the Miami Herald obtained a copy of the team’s pitch to prospective investors, including future spending plans. Some payroll reductions were always in the offing, as evidenced by the quick dismantling of an All-Star outfield (Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna), but those moves were made with the intention of ramping payroll back up down the line.

The Marlins’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 sat just under $100MM, but that number dipped to $72MM in 2019 and was again at that $73MM level in 2020 (prior to prorating salaries) before dropping to $56MM in 2021. The revenue losses from that pandemic-impacted 2020 season changed the direction of many organizations (e.g. Reds, Guardians, D-backs), and it’s certainly feasible that Sherman’s own willingness to spend was impacted as well.

To be clear, the Marlins have spent this offseason. Avisail Garcia’s four-year, $53.5MM deal is one of the largest free-agent contracts they’ve ever handed out, and the team doled out extensions to both Sandy Alcantara and Miguel Rojas while also acquiring Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. That said, Miami’s projected payroll for the forthcoming season is still under $70MM, and if ownership sought to curtail available resources for the 2022, as Sherman reports, it’s possible future seasons would also be impacted.

As ESPN’s Marly Rivera reminds (Twitter link), Jeter spoke favorably about his former organization’s front office, noting that the Yankees are always on the hunt to improve. “I’ve said it before, the Steinbrenner family, from the Boss to Hal, they’re always trying to get better, get better, get better, and they don’t hesitate to make big moves,” Jeter said at the time. Yankee fans may disagree in light of the team’s quiet pre-lockout period, but Jeter’s general tenor this past July does not sound like one that would align with a sudden tightening of the purse strings.

Across social media, players have taken Jeter’s departure as what they perceive as another example of the issues they’re fighting for in labor talks with the league. Astros catcher Jason Castro, one of the eight members on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, tweeted a “Re2pect” message to Jeter and used the hashtag “#CompetitiveIntegrity” as well. As ESPN’s Alden Goznalez writes, players perceive a disconnect between ownership pushing for the status quo in revenue sharing, the luxury tax, etc. in the name of competitive balance and Jeter departing largely because of questions regarding the rest of ownership’s “financial commitment to the roster.”

Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas, the team’s clubhouse leader and unofficial captain, spoke to Jomboy’s Chris Rose today in the wake of Jeter’s sudden departure (Instagram video). “Derek Jeter was looking to win — looking to win this year,” said Rojas. “We all know that in order to be able to win, you need to put a better product on the field, which is what they were doing before the lockout started.”

Rojas praised the team for extending Alcantara but noted that last season, there were virtually no players other than himself on multi-year deals. (Reliever Anthony Bass was also on a small two-year contract.) Extending Rojas and signing Garcia were undoubtedly well-received among the players on the roster, but Rojas expressed questions, doubt and general sadness in speaking with Rose.

“I don’t know about the money situation,” Rojas said after being asked about the Post report that changes in payroll expectation led to Jeter’s departure. “I don’t know about promises of a better payroll or anything like that. I just heard something that they said — that this is the time to take the next step. It’s our time to take the next step in this ’build’ that they promised. … It was time to make the move to get not just a better team, but better quality up and down the organization. I don’t know what happened.

“…At the end of the day, I have a lot of questions. There’s some things that have to be communicated after this thing’s over, because we as the players, we want to be respected and informed what’s going on. I know not everything is going to be shared with the players, but at the end of the day, you at least want to know where you’re going.”

Latest On Nick Castellanos

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The crop of unsigned corner outfielders remains strong, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto still yet to put pen to paper. There’s a case that Castellanos is the best pure outfielder still available, although interest from what appeared to be one of his primary suitors may be more muted than expected.

Reports from before the institution of the lockout suggested the Padres were among the teams with “strong interest” in Castellanos. However, as part of a reader mailbag this week, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes the club doesn’t seem to be “terribly high” on the 29-year-old. While San Diego was at least in contact with Castellanos’ representatives at the Boras Corporation before the lockout, Lin downplays the possibility of San Diego committing either a five-year or a nine-figure investment to Castellanos coming out of the transactions freeze.

Unsurprisingly, he and his reps came out aiming higher, reportedly seeking seven or eight guaranteed years. Something of that length (especially eight years) would register as a surprise but a strong five or six year pact would align with broader expectations; we at MLBTR predicted a five-year term at a total of $115MM on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings to begin the offseason.

No doubt part of San Diego’s reluctance to spend at that level is their already-cluttered payroll. Manny Machado ($32MM), Will Myers ($22.5MM), Eric Hosmer ($20.625MM) and Yu Darvish ($20MM) are all slated for hefty salaries in 2022, parts of a projected $199MM player payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that’d top last season’s franchise-record mark by by around $25MM. Lin writes that some within the organization have suggested there may not be a ton of room to take on additional salary this offseason.

San Diego has tried to save some payroll room by moving Hosmer and/or Myers in trade. Shedding much or all of Hosmer’s money ($61.5MM through 2025) would likely require attaching significant young talent, further thinning a farm system that has depleted as the Padres have pushed their chips in to compete over the past few seasons. It’d probably be easier to find a taker for Myers, who’s entering the final year of his deal. Yet that would also require paying down some money or surrendering young talent, and it’d further deplete an already lacking corner outfield group.

Also complicating matters, the Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. The previous collective bargaining agreement contained escalating penalties for teams that surpassed the tax in multiple consecutive seasons. Where the thresholds are set and whether escalating penalties for repeat payors will persist in the next CBA is to be determined but could affect the Padres willingness to push their payroll higher after the transactions freeze.

San Diego exceeding the tax is also relevant to their chances of pursuing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from his previous team, as Castellanos did from the Reds. As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.

So, if not the Padres, where might Castellanos and Boras turn? The Marlins have been reported to harbor interest in Castellanos, a Miami-area native, since before the offseason even began. The Fish already committed four years and $55MM to Avisail Garcia, but they’re still in the hunt for another bat. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently that Castellanos “would welcome” a homecoming deal with the Marlins … but only “if the terms were right.” Fish fans hoping for a hometown discount should probably temper their optimism.

Still, there’s reason to believe that if the Marlins are truly intent on bolstering their lineup, they could at least make the financials on a Castellanos signing work. Miami currently projects to have a payroll just shy of $69MM, and there’s only $27MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2023 season. In terms of a positional fit, they’re already rife with corner outfield options, but GM Kim Ng has told reporters this winter that the team is comfortable utilizing Garcia in center field. It’s also possible, if not likely, that a designated hitter will be added to the National League, which would only give the Marlins — or any other NL club — more at-bats to give to Castellanos.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Giants Unlikely To Pursue Free Agents With Nine-Figure Asking Prices

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Prior to the lockout, the Giants worked quickly to revamp a rotation that appeared poised to lose as many as four members to free agency. Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani returned on a three-year, $36MM contract and was joined by lefty Alex Wood, who inked a two-year deal worth $25MM. Right-hander Alex Cobb was add to the mix on a two-year, $20MM deal.

That gives San Francisco three veteran arms to slot in behind burgeoning ace Logan Webb, but the Giants also allowed top 2020-21 starter Kevin Gausman to depart, declining to match the five-year, $110MM contract he received from the Blue Jays. The decision to let Gausman walk is of extra note now, as ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports in his latest look at what to expect throughout the league, post-lockout, that there’s a belief the Giants aren’t keen on pursuing any targets with nine-figure asking prices.

That serves as a potential explanation for why the team ultimately let Gausman leave, and it could also be instructive when forecasting what’s on the horizon for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, GM Scott Harris and the rest of the front office. Zaidi has already thrown some cold water on the idea of re-signing Kris Bryant, for instance, and if the Giants are indeed averse to $100MM+ commitments, his return would seem highly unlikely. San Francisco didn’t seem like a great match for most of the remaining free agents with that type of asking price in the first place (e.g. Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story), though eschewing contracts of this magnitude could take them out of the running  not only for Bryant but for Nick Castellanos, who has reportedly sought a seven- or even eight-year deal.

An aversion to lengthy deals of this magnitude would align with the approach employed by the archrival Dodgers during Zaidi’s time as general manager under L.A. president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Like the Dodgers, the Giants are a major-market team with huge payroll capacity, but we’ve yet to see them dole out the type of long-term arrangements that were more common under the prior Giants front office regime. That’s not to say Zaidi’s Giants definitively won’t sign a $100MM+ deal at some point — they reportedly pursued Bryce Harper when he was a free agent — but thus far, indications point more toward the shorter-term, higher-annual-value deals that are increasingly popular as many teams seek to mitigate long-term risk.

Whenever the transaction freeze finally thaws, the Giants still have some work to do. In addition to another proven rotation piece, at least one outfield upgrade would make sense, and there’s always room for a contending club to bolster its bullpen. The Giants have about $126MM in 2022 commitments and about $135MM worth of luxury-tax obligations at the moment, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, which ought to leave ample room for spending. Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are among the notable free-agent alternatives still on the outfield market, and the likely implementation of a DH in the National League would give the Giants further runway to explore creative options. As for the pitching needs, Carlos Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal but probably won’t command an especially lengthy deal after ending the season with shoulder concerns.

Beyond the free-agent market, the Giants (and other teams) have myriad trade opportunities to consider. The A’s and Reds are known to have starting pitchers available. The Mets’ recent wave of free-agent spending pushed some notable bats to the bench. Speculatively, San Francisco could swing for the fences and try to pry Ketel Marte from the D-backs or even Cedric Mullins from the Orioles. There’s no real limit to what paths the Giants could explore, particularly since the team’s farm system has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years (landing No. 5 among MLB clubs on Baseball America’s mid-August rankings).

Marlins Notes: Schwarber, Marte, Castellanos, Pina, Gomes, Stallings

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The Marlins are known to be looking for more outfield help, with Kyle Schwarber already reported as one of the names on the team’s radar.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of The Miami Herald shed some more light on the Marlins’ pursuit, writing that Schwarber is looking for a three-year contract worth around $60MM.

Such a deal would top the Marlins’ four-year, $53MM pact with Avisail Garcia in dollars if not years, though it would also fall short of the four years and $70MM MLBTR projected Schwarber to land this winter.  Three years and $60MM is still a healthy sum, particularly for a team with Miami’s traditionally limited payrolls, yet the Marlins have already shown a greater willingness to spend in order to upgrade their offense.

The Phillies are another team that has been linked to Schwarber, while the Red Sox and Nationals (the slugger’s two most recent clubs) have also expressed some level of interest in a reunion.  Since several of the top free-agent bats have already landed new deals, Schwarber’s status as one of the top hitters available has only risen, so it’s fair to assume that other teams have already shown interest or will do so once the post-lockout dust settles.  It remains to be seen whether Schwarber’s market will develop to the point where the Marlins or any other club eventually puts a four-year offer on the table.

Of other outfielders linked to the Marlins, Nick Castellanos “is viewed as too expensive,” while Eddie Rosario is another consideration if Schwarber is also ultimately deemed to be beyond Miami’s price range.  Recent reports indicated that Castellanos is looking to score a seven- or eight-year contract, and even if that is an aim-high projection that could be lowered post-lockout, it would still seem like Castellanos might not be a fit for the Fish.  Additionally, signing Castellanos have a further cost in the form of draft pick compensation, since he rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.

The Marlins could possibly avoid the free agent route entirely by landing an outfielder in a trade, as before the lockout, Jackson and Mish note that Miami was in “ongoing discussions with one American League team.”  The in-house fallback plan would be to have Brian Anderson play right field and the newly-acquired Joey Wendle take over as the everyday third baseman, but the Fish would prefer to have an established outfielder on the grass rather than Anderson, even if Anderson has looked at home as an outfielder.  Anderson had a 7.9 UZR/150 and +6 Defensive Runs Saved over 1223 innings as a right fielder in 2018-19, but is also coming off an injury-plagued 2021 season.

Miami’s offseason pursuits led them to consider such players as Starling Marte, Manny Pina, and Yan Gomes, with the first two receiving contract offers.  For Marte, the Marlins and two other teams made four-year offers worth roughly $60MM, and according to Jackson/Mish, Miami was prepared to spend a little more to bring Marte back to South Beach.  Marte’s camp wanted something around a $70MM payday, however, and ended up topping that number handily with the $78MM over four years that Marte received from the Mets.

Pina was another player the Marlins lost to a division rival, as while the Fish offered Pina $4MM on a one-year deal, the Braves doubled that offer and signed Pina for two years and $8MM.  However, the Marlins instead landed a longer-term target in Jacob Stallings, acquiring the backstop from the Pirates for a three-player trade package.  Interestingly, Jackson/Mish write that the Red Sox came very close to trading for Stallings, which would have indicated the Sox were ready to move on from Christian Vazquez either next winter (2022 is Vazquez’s last year under contract) or perhaps this offseason if a trade partner could have been found.

Padres Have Reportedly Expressed Interest In Nick Castellanos

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Serving as one of the last free agent rumors of the night before yesterday’s lockout officially commenced, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres were “showing strong interest” in free agent Nick Castellanos. An important disclaimer here is that teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions during the duration of this lockout. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how strongly yesterday’s reported interest in Castellanos will persist when the transaction freeze is over. Nonetheless, this is a notable piece of insight into how San Diego may operate when they’re free to bolster their roster again.

The 29-year-old Castellanos should appeal to the Padres and a number of teams for one simple reason: he’s a very good hitter. In 138 games this past season the right fielder posted personal best offensive numbers en route to a .309/.362/.576 slash line (136 OPS+) with 34 home runs. Statcast metrics largely support the output, by virtue of how frequently Castellanos makes hard contact.

One knock on Castellanos over the years is that he’s been something of a free-swinger, waving and missing at balls outside the strike zone. Statcast numbers showed more of the same in that regard during 2021. Castellanos was able to mitigate concerns about being too much of a free-swinger in one notable respect, however, since he cut down his strikeout rate to a better-than-most 20.7%. The ability to be aggressive early in the count but avoid strikeouts is an asset that will likely give teams more confidence in the player than they had in him after a replacement-level 2020 showing.

The other well-documented knock against Castellanos has been his subpar defensive ratings over the years. Despite possessing above average speed, the outfielder continued the trend of uninspiring outfield play in 2021. Any NL team looking to add Castellanos’s bat to a lineup knows they’ll be taking a bit of a hit when he takes his glove out into the field.

Those documented shortcomings, as well as the obvious offensive upside, actually lend some traction to a Padres pursuit. San Diego is a team that clearly values contact skills— they were the 5th best team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts last season. As for the defensive side of things, San Diego (and several other NL teams) may be of the mindset that when the lockout subsides the DH will exist for all 30 teams. Stowing MLBTR’s 10th-ranked free agent at a DH spot, with occasional outfield reps, seems a perfectly reasonable move then for a team whose offense proved surprisingly middling last season. Even without the DH, it’s possible some outfield shuffling can take place to accommodate Castellanos now that incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham is a free agent.

Nick Castellanos Reportedly Seeking Seven- Or Eight-Year Deal

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10:08am: The Phillies have had recent talks with Castellanos, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As he points out, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was GM in Detroit when the Tigers selected Castellanos with the No. 44 overall draft pick.

7:36am: As a strong season for Nick Castellanos progressed in Cincinnati, it became increasingly obvious that the slugger would opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract in favor of a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos, however, is perhaps seeking an even larger payday than most would expect; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Castellanos and agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of seven or even eight years in length. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that the Marlins still have interest in Castellanos even after landing Avisail Garcia, though Feinsand suggests Castellanos’ asking price is too rich for Miami’s liking.

The 29-year-old Castellanos (30 in March) posted a huge .309/.362/.576 slash with 34 home runs, 38 doubles, a triple and three steals through 585 plate appearances this past season. Castellanos briefly missed time due to a microfracture in his wrist, but he shook off the rust almost immediately upon returning and closed out the year on a .294/.335/.606 heater through the final six weeks or so of play (176 plate appearances).

Excellent as Castellanos is and has been at the plate, seven and eight years are stills jarring numbers. Castellanos’ glovework has been consistently panned by defensive metrics — both at his original position (third base) and since moving to right field on a full-time basis in 2018. The 2021 season was no exception, as virtually any metric (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, -7 Outs Above Average) framed Castellanos as a liability in right. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds, meaning any team that signs him will be subject to draft-pick forfeiture.

To his credit, Castellanos is far from a one-year wonder — even if the 2021 season was his most productive to date. While a poor three-week finish in the shortened 2020 season tanked his season numbers, he still finished with league-average output, per both wRC+ and OPS+, and he’s been consistently strong at the dish outside that season. Both wRC+ and OPS+ suggest Castellanos has been about 22 percent better than the league-average hitter dating all the way back to 2016, and his bat truly soared to new heights upon being traded from the Tigers to Cubs. Even when including that average 2020 output, Castellanos carries a .292/.346/.571 batting line (134 wRC+) through 1052 plate appearances since leaving Detroit.

It’s commonplace for agents to aim for the moon in free agency, and while it can oftentimes burn a player, there are also deals of surprising magnitude each winter. (Few would’ve expected Marcus Semien to command a seven-year deal this winter, for instance.) It’d be a surprise to see Castellanos command such a weighty commitment, but he’s arguably the best bat available in free agency this offseason and would clearly benefit from the widely expected advent of the universal designated hitter.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

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The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

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