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NL West Notes: Ahmed, Luciano, Machado, Otto, Treinen, Graterol

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The Giants entered camp seemingly poised to hand longtime top prospect Marco Luciano the keys to the shortstop position entering the 2024 season. With that being said, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle recently indicated that the tides could be shifting in that regard, noting that non-roster invitee Nick Ahmed has “taken the lead” in the race to be the club’s Opening Day shortstop.

Ahmed, 34 later this week, spent the past ten seasons in Arizona as a regular fixture at shortstop, earning back-to-back Gold Glove awards for his superlative defense in 2018 and 2019. He’s struggled to stay on the field in recent years, drawing just 264 trips to the plate between the past two seasons, and in that time slashed a paltry .216/.258/.332. Rough as his last two seasons were, Ahmed’s non-roster deal with the Giants came with the opportunity to earn a regular role in San Francisco, and the veteran has made the most of that opportunity by slashing an incredible .556/.667/1.222 in his 12 trips to the plate this spring without recording a strikeout across his four appearances.

Luciano, by contrast, has hit a paltry .071/.188/.071 in six games this spring, striking out in 56.3% of his plate appearances without recording an extra-base hit. While numbers during Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons and it’s worth noting that Luciano was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, it would nonetheless be understandable if the Giants felt that Luciano’s weak results this spring indicated that the 22-year-old needs more development time at the Triple-A level. Luciano made his big league debut with San Francisco last year but struggled at the plate in his cup of coffee, hitting just .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate in 45 trips to the plate.

More from around the NL West…

  • Padres star Manny Machado is a “pretty safe” bet to be limited to DH duties during the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, manager Mike Shildt recently told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Machado underwent elbow surgery back in October and is coming off a relative down season by his standards, having slashed “just” .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114, a step down from the 140 wRC+ he posted across the previous three seasons. With Machado likely restricted to DH at-bats to open the season, the Padres appear likely to rely on a utility fielder like Matthew Batten or Eguy Rosario at the hot corner to open the season.
  • Sticking with the Padres, Acee also reports that right-hander Glenn Otto, who the club claimed off waivers from the Rangers back in September, came out of the offseason likely to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation this spring but has been sidelined during camp by a teres major strain. Acee notes that he’s “progressing” toward a return to the mound but does not elaborate on what the righty’s timetable for return is. Otto, who will celebrate his 28th birthday tomorrow, was a fixture of the Rangers rotation back in 2022 with a 4.64 ERA in 27 starts but has generally struggled in the majors with a career 5.62 ERA and a walk rate north of 10%.
  • While Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen left yesterday’s game after being struck in the torso by a comebacker, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) that the veteran had avoided a major injury from the incident. Treinen was diagnosed with a bruised lung, which Roberts added should be healed within three to five days. That leaves Treinen likely to be available for Opening Day as a veteran option for the L.A. bullpen alongside the likes of Ryan Brasier and Daniel Hudson. Treinen has spent almost all of the past two seasons on the sidelines but owns a career 2.86 ERA and posted a 1.99 figure as recently as the 2021 season.
  • Sticking with the Dodgers, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya notes that right-hander Brusdar Graterol will not be joining the Dodgers for the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, as he’s been sidelined much of the spring by hip tightness and shoulder soreness, though Graterol downplayed the latter issue to reporters recently. Graterol added in conversation with reporters (including Ardaya) that he figures to resume throwing on Tuesday and hopes to be ready to join the Dodgers in time for their stateside opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Graterol was one of the club’s most effective relievers last season, pitching to a sensational 1.20 ERA in 68 appearances.

Giants Notes: Davis, Pederson, Ahmed

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San Francisco’s reported agreement with third baseman Matt Chapman last night added an elite defender and quality hitter to a lineup that’s already added Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler this winter as the Giants look to bolster their offense after posting a 93 wRC+ as a team last year, which was a bottom-ten figure in the majors. With that being said, the deal seemingly leaves another veteran bat without a clear home in J.D. Davis.

Davis, 31 next month, is set to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign and seems unlikely to find a regular role in San Francisco this season with Soler at DH, Chapman at the hot corner, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores expected to handle first base. That reality could spur the Giants to make a trade in the near future, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The veteran infielder hit a roughly league average .248/.325/.413 in 144 games with the Giants last year, but had established himself as a well-above average bat in the four years prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing .276/.363/.457 with a 127 wRC+ during that time. That upside could make Davis an attractive target for a team lacking in certainty at the infield corners, such as the Cubs, Mariners, or Brewers, potentially allowing the club to shed his $6.9MM salary and free up additional payroll space for a possible pursuit of southpaw Blake Snell.

For Davis’s part, he told reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the club’s decision to sign Chapman was “definitely surprising,” adding that he hadn’t communicated with the front office regarding the decision of his future to this point before referencing the club’s handling of veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford during his final year with the club and free agency this winter.

“I didn’t get a phone call, Brandon Crawford didn’t get a phone call,” Davis said, as relayed by Rubin. “It is what it is. It’s part of the business. I know every management is different in how they handle things and that’s just one of the characteristics you just have to live with.”

More from around San Francisco…

  • While Crawford recently expressed disappointment regarding how his tenure in San Francisco ended, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that no such acrimony exists between the club and slugger Joc Pederson, who departed the club to sign with the Diamondbacks earlier this winter. While Pederson told Slusser that he retains a strong relationship with both president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and that the Giants even made him an offer this winter, though he added that Arizona “expressed more interest” and presented him with a stronger offer. Pederson spent the past two seasons playing for San Francisco, slashing a strong .255/.351/.470 in 255 games with the club across the two campaigns.
  • Shortstop Nick Ahmed recently spoke to reported, including The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, regarding his decision to sign with the Giants on a non-roster deal this spring. The two-time Gold Glove award winner had spent parts of ten seasons with the Diamondbacks prior to becoming a free agent for the first time in his career back in September, and the soon to be 34-year-old veteran indicated that while he had some conversations with the Cardinals this winter before they signed Crawford to a one-year deal last month. With that being said, Ahmed indicated that he was enticed to sign in San Francisco when Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin indicated to him that he would have the opportunity the everyday job at shortstop with the club this spring. A career .234/.288/.376 hitter, Ahmed has made up for a lack of offensive production throughout his career with elite defensive numbers and figures to battle with youngsters Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt for the shortstop job throughout the final month of Spring Training.

Giants Sign Nick Ahmed To Minor League Deal

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The Giants announced Monday that they’ve signed veteran infielder Nick Ahmed to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Ahmed, a client of Excel Sports Management, has long been a division rival of the Giants, spending his entire big league career with the D-backs until now.

San Francisco has reportedly been mulling a variety of veteran options at shortstop. Ahmed will add a glove-first option to their spring group. He’ll compete with prospect Marco Luciano, 25-year-old Casey Schmitt and 26-year-old Tyler Fitzgerald for playing time at that position. Ahmed was recently linked to the Cardinals as well, where he’d also have been competing with a young prospect (Masyn Winn) for playing time, and the Marlins before that. It’s not clear whether St. Louis or Miami ever made an offer, but that’s largely moot now that Ahmed has signed on with the Giants.

The past two seasons have been a struggle for Ahmed, a two-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop. Shoulder surgery in 2022 limited him to just 17 games, and his already modest offensive production cratered upon returning in 2023. Ahmed hit just .212/.257/.303 last year, losing playing time to Geraldo Perdomo. In September, the Diamondbacks designated Ahmed for assignment and released him. It was an unceremonious end to a 10-season tenure as Arizona’s primary shortstop, but the veteran’s dwindling role and production prompted the organization to move on.

In the five seasons prior to his shoulder surgery, Ahmed had still been below-average at the plate, but not nearly to the extent he was in ’23. From 2017-21, Ahmed tallied 2057 plate appearances and batted .242/.300/.402 (83  wRC+). As is to be expected from a right-handed hitter, he’s been far better against lefties in his career, slashing .257/.309/.430 (93 wRC+).

Ahmed offsets his lackluster offensive output by playing defense as well as virtually any player in the sport. From ’17-’21, Ahmed’s 58 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fifth among all big leaguers, regardless of position. His 87 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, tied him with Francisco Lindor for the most of any player — shortstop or otherwise — in the big leagues.

Whether Ahmed can return to those heights in the field remains to be seen, though last year’s showing in a small sample was promising. He only logged 488 innings in the field but still tallied 1 DRS, 6 OAA and a 1.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. The typically surehanded Ahmed did make an uncharacteristic eight errors in that small sample, but his range remained excellent.

Ahmed will have some youthful competition as he looks to grab a roster spot. The 22-year-old Luciano currently ranks 56th on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. He didn’t hit much in a tiny sample of 45 plate appearances during last summer’s MLB debut, however, and also struggled in Triple-A following a promotion from Double-A (where he’d struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances). Questions about his glovework and contact profile could lead Luciano to Triple-A to begin the season.

Both Schmitt and Fitzgerald made their MLB debuts last season as well. Schmitt is a plus defender at multiple infield positions but hit just .206/.255/.324 in 277 trips to the plate during last year’s debut effort. His .300/.346/.435 slash in Triple-A was a far sight better, but he’s not yet proven himself against MLB pitching. Fitzgerald didn’t play shortstop at all in the majors last season, but that’s been his primary spot in the minors. He went just 7-for-32 in 34 MLB plate appearances but connected on a pair of homers and doubles alike. Fitzgerald popped 20 homers and swiped 29 bags in Triple-A, but scouts see him as more of a utilityman than an everyday option at shortstop, in part for defensive reasons.

Latest On Marlins’ Shortstop Pursuits

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The Marlins are known to be looking for shortstop help and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relays today that they are considering names such as Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesí. Their interest in Mondesí was reported last week but the other three are new connections for the Fish.

That the club is looking for shortstop help is perfectly logical, as their internal options are not great. Joey Wendle got most of the playing time there last year, but he reached free agency and signed with the Mets this offseason. They still have Jon Berti, but he’s now 34 years old and best suited to a utility role. Jacob Amaya is a glove-first guy who still has an option and can be kept in the minors for regular at-bats. Xavier Edwards only played four games at short in the minors last year, spending far more time at second, third and center field. Like Amaya, he’s also optionable. Vidal Bruján has always hit well in the minors but just .157/.218/.221 in the majors. He’s out of options but probably shouldn’t be the club’s Plan A at such an important position.

But now we’re just about a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training with the position still looking like an area of the roster that obviously needs work. Part of that seems to be due to new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix taking his time in getting to know the organization. The club still hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league deal this winter, regardless of position, with their offseason work limited to a few small trades and minor league deals.

The lack of activity might also be attributed to the weak free agent class at the position. While past winters have featured superstar free agents like Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and others, the top names for the current offseason were those mentioned at the top of this post.

Anderson and Rosario are both coming off down years, with their respective markets surely impacted. Anderson hit just .245/.286/.296 on the year for a wRC+ of 60, the worst such mark of any qualified hitter last year. Rosario’s .263/.305/.378 line wasn’t quite as bad, 88 wRC+, but still well below league average. Both of them also saw their defensive metrics slide a bit, with Rosario largely kept at second base by the Dodgers after a deadline trade. Anderson, meanwhile, expressed a willingness to move across the bag if that’s necessary for his next club.

Both players could point to better results in previous seasons. Anderson hit .318/.347/.473 from 2019 to 2022 for a wRC+ of 123, with better defensive marks as well. Rosario’s slash for that same four-year period was .282/.315/.412, translating to a wRC+ of 101. If the Marlins were looking for reasons to expect a bounceback, perhaps Anderson’s knee injury could give them some hope. He went on the injured list in the second week of April due to a left knee sprain and perhaps was never himself, despite returning from the IL after only about three weeks. Last year’s 27.2 mph sprint speed was a big drop from 2022’s 28.3 mph, moving him from the 77th to the 45th percentile in the league. Rosario wouldn’t have any excuse like that, not going on the IL all year, but he did deal with some back soreness and knee soreness during the season and his offensive drop wasn’t nearly as steep.

Ahmed would be a different type of pursuit as he’s an excellent defender but has never really been a threat at the plate. He has 80 Defensive Runs Saved and 111 Outs Above Average in his career, but he’s hit just .234/.288/.376 for a wRC+ of 73. That was already subpar offensive production but his work at the plate slipped even farther in 2023, as he hit .212/.257/.303 and was released by the Diamondbacks in September.

If the Marlins decide that any of these players are worth a flier, they should be able to get something done. None of them should be able to command a massive deal, given their weak platform seasons. The fact that they remain unsigned this close to Spring Training probably doesn’t give them much leverage either. The club’s quiet offseason has left them with a projected payroll of $97MM, per Roster Resource, a decent drop from last year’s $110MM figure.

Rosario reportedly received interest from the Red Sox and Blue Jays this winter, though that was before the Sox added Vaughn Grissom and the Jays added Justin Turner. Anderson has been connected to the Angels while Ahmed’s market has been fairly quiet since his release.

The Top Unsigned Shortstops

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the center fielders and catchers still available and will now take a look at some notable shortstops.

  • Tim Anderson: It’s no secret that last year was a disaster for Anderson, a stunning drop-off from his previous performance. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123. Last year, his line was just .245/.286/.296. His wRC+ of 60 was the lowest of all qualified hitters in the league. His defense also seemed to take a step back. Despite that rough year, his prior track record and a weak free agent class should get him a chance somewhere. Optimists could perhaps point to an April knee injury as the culprit for 2023, with better health perhaps leading to better results. Anderson has expressed a willingness to move to other positions going forward, but the lack of better alternatives should work in his favor.
  • Amed Rosario: Like Anderson, Rosario also experienced a big drop-off in 2023, though not quite as precipitous. He hit .282/.315/.412 from 2019 to 2022, leading to a wRC+ of 101. The reviews on his glovework were mixed. Last year, he hit just .263/.305/.378 between the Guardians and Dodgers, leading to an 88 wRC+. The latter club, after acquiring him in a trade, had him spend more time at second base than at short. It’s unclear whether clubs around the league will consider him a proper shortstop or more of a second baseman that could play there in a pinch. The offense has been uneven but he’s always had good numbers with the platoon advantage, even in his poor 2023 campaign. The righty hitter slashed .282/.326/.442 against southpaws last year for a 112 wRC+.
  • Gio Urshela: Going back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees, Urshela has hit .291/.335/.452 for a wRC+ of 115. He’s also considered a strong defender at third base but has only had brief glimpses at short. While he’s had over 4,600 innings at the hot corner, he’s tallied just 359 at the six hole. His numbers there haven’t been especially strong either. He’s also coming off a season that was ended by a pelvic fracture suffered in June. He may be the most reliable bat in this bunch but he’s probably not considered an everyday shortstop. Then again, the dearth of attractive options may tempt some club to give it a shot.
  • Elvis Andrus: The ceiling may not be too exciting with Andrus, but he has more reliability than the names ahead of him on this list. He played 112 games for the White Sox last year, missing a few weeks due to an oblique strain but otherwise staying healthy. He’s only had one full season in his career where he didn’t top that mark, getting to just 97 games in 2018. His .251/.304/.358 batting line translated to a wRC+ of just 81, not far below his career production, but he stole 12 bases and was still considered good in the field. His 1.1 fWAR on the year was easily the highest of anyone else in this post and he’s never been lower than that in a full season. Due to the aforementioned players dealing with rough years and injuries, none of these other guys even got to 0.5 fWAR.
  • Adalberto Mondesí: The flip side to Andrus, Mondesí is not reliable at all but comes with a more enticing ceiling. Health has been a constant issue with him, as his 2019 season was the only time he got into more than 75 games, suiting up for 102 contests that year. Most recently, he suffered a torn ACL in April of 2022 and hasn’t appeared in a game since. But he had a strong run with the Royals from 2018 to 2021 when he was able to take the field. He hit 35 home runs in 1,103 plate appearances, though a 4.3% walk rate kept his on-base percentage low. His .261/.293/.445 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92 but he paired that with strong defense and 114 stolen bases in 271 games. He produced 7.4 fWAR in that time, not even two full seasons’ worth of contests. The health issues will give clubs plenty of pause but he’s still just 28 years old and is almost two years removed from his ACL surgery at this point.

Honorable mentions: Brandon Crawford, Nick Ahmed, Yu Chang

Diamondbacks Release Nick Ahmed

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The D-Backs released Nick Ahmed over the weekend, tweets Theo Mackie of the Arizona Republic. He’s officially a free agent.

There was never any doubt the veteran shortstop would hit the open market after Arizona designated him for assignment last Wednesday. Players in DFA limbo have to go on waivers after the trade deadline. Ahmed has well more than the five years of major league service necessary to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his entire salary. With around $1.4MM in remaining guarantees on his $10MM salary at the time of the DFA, no other club was going to put in a claim.

The 33-year-old infielder becomes a free agent for the first time in his career. He’d signed a $32.5MM extension with the D-Backs going into the 2020 campaign, which would’ve been his platform year. The defensive stalwart hit .230/.285/.351 in 954 plate appearances over the course of that deal. That includes a .212/.257/.303 slash this season.

Ahmed has been healthy this season after losing most of last year to shoulder surgery. He’s still a quality defensive shortstop. The D-Backs turned to 21-year-old top prospect Jordan Lawlar to try to add some spark to the lineup, though, pushing Ahmed off the roster a few weeks before his contract was set to expire.

The 10-year veteran will surely at least find minor league interest based on the strength of his glove — although that might not materialize until the winter. Now that the calendar has turned to September, he’d be ineligible for postseason play elsewhere. As a result, he could elect to sit out the final few weeks of this season and look for a new landing spot during the upcoming offseason.

D-Backs Promote Jordan Lawlar

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September 7: The Diamondbacks have now made Lawlar’s promotion official, announced that move and Ahmed’s DFA today. They also activated catcher Seby Zavala, claimed off waivers this week, and recalled right-hander Ryne Nelson. Catcher José Herrera and right-hander Bryce Jarvis were optioned in corresponding moves for Zavala and Nelson.

September 6: The Diamondbacks are calling up top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). They’ll presumably make the move official tomorrow in advance of a pivotal four-game series against the Cubs. Arizona is designating Nick Ahmed for assignment in a corresponding move.

Lawlar seems likely to take over as the primary third baseman. Piecoro wrote this afternoon that the Snakes were considering him as an option at the hot corner. Lawlar made his first professional start there with Triple-A Reno last night. That’s obviously a very limited look, but teams generally feel comfortable moving shortstops to other infield positions.

A Dallas native, Lawlar was regarded as one of the top prospects in the 2021 draft class coming out of high school. He somewhat surprisingly lasted until the sixth pick, though Arizona went above slot with the third-highest signing bonus to add him to the system.

Lawlar’s draft season was cut short by an injury to his left shoulder, which required surgery. He didn’t show any signs of rust the following year, though. The right-handed hitter put together a .303/.401/.509 batting line in his first full professional season. He reached Double-A Amarillo late last year, an impressive achievement for a player who had just turned 20 years old.

That huge showing cemented Lawlar’s status as one of the sport’s most talented prospects. Arizona assigned him back to Amarillo to begin the 2023 campaign. He started relatively slowly but has caught fire since the weather warmed up. Lawlar has an OPS north of .900 in the minors for each month since June. He hit .263/.366/.474 in 410 Double-A plate appearances overall to earn a bump to Reno in mid-August. Lawlar has only appeared in 16 games there, mashing at a .358/.438/.612 clip.

While he’s had the benefit of playing in favorable hitting environments, Lawlar’s cumulative .278/.378/.496 line on the year is strong. He’s walking at a quality 11.4% clip against a decent 20.6% strikeout rate. He has popped 20 homers, 23 doubles and four triples and gone 36-41 in stolen base attempts.

Baseball America recently slotted Lawlar as the sport’s #9 overall prospect, while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN placed him 25th. As his numbers indicate, he’s generally viewed as a well-rounded player with solid tools across the board. McDaniel suggests that a lack of a standout carrying tool could keep Lawlar more as a quality regular than a true star. Even if Lawlar doesn’t have quite the same upside as some top prospects, most evaluators seem confident in him being a productive everyday player at the major league level.

Whether that’ll be the case immediately could have an impact on this year’s playoff picture. Arizona beat Colorado this afternoon and remains tied with Miami, half a game behind the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs occupy the second Wild Card position, so Arizona has a chance to directly make up ground when they head to Wrigley.

There’s risk with any prospect, particularly one who only has a year and a half of minor league reps under his belt. Yet Lawlar brings more offensive upside than Arizona’s current third base mix. The Snakes have used a combination of Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera and occasionally Evan Longoria at the hot corner. While Rivera had played reasonably well early in the season, they’ve gotten almost nothing out of the position lately. Arizona third basemen are hitting .195/.298/.305 since the All-Star Break.

Geraldo Perdomo has also cooled off at shortstop after an All-Star first half. Yet he’s playing well enough overall to keep the hold onto that job, seemingly pushing Lawlar to the other left side infield position for now. It stands to reason Arizona still views Lawlar as a shortstop option if Perdomo gets injured or goes through an extended slump.

He’ll retain his rookie eligibility going into next season. If the D-Backs carry him for a full service year, Lawlar could net them an extra draft choice if he plays well enough to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons. That’s a much further off possibility. For now, his focus will be on trying to help a young and increasingly exciting Arizona team to the postseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks designated veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment, manager Torey Lovullo informed reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s the corresponding move for the promotion of top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar.

It’ll close the book on Ahmed’s 10-year tenure in the desert. Arizona initially acquired him as part of a five-player return from the Braves for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson during the 2012-13 offseason. Ahmed debuted in the majors a year later and took over as the starting shortstop heading into 2015.

That was the first of six eventual Opening Day starts over the next nine years. Ahmed has never made much of an offensive impact, but he immediately broke in as one of the game’s preeminent defensive shortstops. In a little over 7000 career innings, Ahmed has rated an elite 80 runs above average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Among shortstops, only Andrelton Simmons has topped Ahmed in DRS over that stretch. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, which dates back to 2015, has placed him only behind Francisco Lindor (who has logged over 3000 more innings).

Ahmed deservedly secured consecutive Gold Glove awards in 2018-19. Heading into the 2020 campaign, Arizona signed him to a $32.5MM contract to cover his final arbitration season and three would-be free agent years. It was a bet in Ahmed maintaining his elite defensive form, but the deal didn’t go as the organization had hoped.

The first season went well. Ahmed hit at a nearly average level in the shortened season while continuing to play excellent defense. His offense plummeted to a .221/.280/.339 slash the following year. Ahmed continued to defend well but battled a shoulder injury toward season’s end. That unfortunately carried over into 2022, as the veteran was forced to undergo season-ending surgery last June.

Arizona turned the shortstop job back over to him headed into 2023. Ahmed continued to struggle offensively, though, and Arizona gave increasing playing time to Geraldo Perdomo. Ahmed has worked as a glove-first backup, appearing in 72 games and hitting .212/.257/.303 across 210 plate appearances.

Between Perdomo and Lawlar, it always seemed as if Arizona would move on from Ahmed once his contract expired at year’s end. With the D-Backs hoping for an offensive spark in calling up the 21-year-old top prospect, they bumped the veteran off the roster a few weeks early. Arizona will put Ahmed on waivers in the coming days. He’ll surely go unclaimed, as no team will want to take on the approximate $1.4MM remaining on his $10MM salary. He will very likely become a free agent — either via release or declining an outright assignment.

While he could then look for other opportunities, he wouldn’t be eligible for postseason play with another team. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he simply waits until the offseason to look for a new landing spot for 2024.

The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak

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The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.

The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:

Amed Rosario (28)*

While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.

That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.

Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract

Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.

Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.

Brandon Crawford (37)

The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.

Elvis Andrus (35)

Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.

Nick Ahmed (34)

Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.

Gio Urshela (32)

Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.

More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)

Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.

Adalberto Mondesí (28)

Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.

Players With Club Options

Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.

The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.

Outlook

This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.

*age for the 2024 season

Injury Notes: Whitlock, Ahmed, Vargas, Reynolds

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Right-hander Garrett Whitlock is still on the mend from September hip surgery, though Red Sox skipper Alex Cora indicated this morning there’s a possibility he won’t be ready for Opening Day (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). Whitlock has been throwing off a mound but is not yet performing pitchers’ fielding practice, and Cora stated that if the right-hander isn’t ready for the start of the season, “he’s not going to lose too much time.”

One of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, the 26-year-old Whitlock has pitched 151 2/3 innings for Boston over the past two seasons, logging a sharp 2.73 ERA with a strong 26.8% strikeout rate against a brilliant 5.3% walk rate. The Red Sox have used him far more out of the bullpen than the rotation, but he’s slated to get a look as a starter in 2023, joining the likes of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta in the mix for rotation work. Fellow righty Tanner Houck and top prospect Brayan Bello are both options to step into the rotation, should Whitlock need to miss any time early in the season.

A few more health situations to monitor as spring camps continue to ramp up…

  • D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed received a cortisone injection in his right forearm and will be shut down for at least five days, writes Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. The 32-year-old Ahmed (33 next month) was dealing with inflammation and tightness in his forearm, and the hope is that the injection and some downtime will clear it up and avoid a lengthy absence. Ahmed was limited to 129 games in 2021 and just 17 games in 2022 thanks to a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery last year. If healthy, he’ll be back in line for regular reps at shortstop, where he’s ranked among the game’s best defenders at any position. A healthy 2023 campaign is of particular importance for Ahmed, as he’s entering the final season of a four-year, $32MM contract and is slated to become a free agent for the first time next offseason.
  • Infielder Miguel Vargas, who suffered a hairline fracture of his pinkie finger earlier this spring, has resumed swinging a bat, writes Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The 23-year-old Vargas, widely considered to be one of the sport’s 100  best prospects, scuffled through a 50-plate appearance MLB debut in 2022 (.170/.200/.255) but ripped through Triple-A pitching at a torrid .304/.404/.511 pace (129 wRC+). He’s the favorite for everyday work at second base to begin the season, though obviously the health of his finger will determine his readiness for the season. Vargas is in the Dodgers’ lineup for the second time in three spring games today, but he’s batting ninth and isn’t expected to swing during any plate appearances today (he walked and struck out on Saturday). He’ll still get some work at second base and use today’s game to work on tracking pitches in the batter’s box. It’s not clear yet when he’ll begin swinging the bat in a game setting.
  • Reds infielder Matt Reynolds is headed for an MRI after exiting Saturday’s Cactus League game with a quadriceps injury, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 31-year-old Reynolds, in camp as a non-roster invitee, logged a career-high 272 plate appearances with Cincinnati in 2022, slashing .246/.320/.332 while appearing at every position other than catcher. Reynolds is competing with fellow non-roster invitees like Chad Pinder, Alejo Lopez and Jason Vosler for a spot on manager David Bell’s bench to begin the 2023 season.
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