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Latest On Mets After Wild Card Loss: Yo, Walker, Bruce, Duda

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The Mets lost a tough one last night, falling to the Giants and Madison Bumgarner when Conor Gillaspie blasted a three-run bomb off closer Jeurys Familia. Thus begins an interesting offseason for the organization, which continues to have plenty of major league talent but also faces many questions. The action won’t get underway in earnest for a few weeks, but ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin provides some important information on some significant players:

  • Unsurprisingly, the Mets expect star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to opt out of the remaining two years of his deal after another outstanding season. Rubin says the team is expressing pessimism about a reunion, but does intend to try after smartly re-signing him last winter. The current thinking is that the Mets will offer something on the same order as Cespedes’s most recent deal, with some front-loaded cash, a relatively modest term of years, and an opt-out after the first season. Whether that’s enough remains to be seen, but may depend upon whether another team is willing to make a truly significant guarantee after watching Cespedes post another top-notch campaign.
  • It is clear, Rubin suggests, that Cespedes truly enjoys playing in New York, so perhaps that’s the ace in the hole for Sandy Alderson and co. The Cuban star said last night that he “hope[s]” to return to New York, as Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, though that’s approximately the same line he has repeated when asked about the subject over the course of the season. All told, it seems possible but hardly likely that the Mets will lay enough cash on the table to bring him back.
  • The Mets intend to make Neil Walker a qualifying offer so long as he continues to progress following his back surgery. In fact, it’s possible that the organization will be interested in a multi-year pact with the second baseman, per the report. There could well be some opportunity for such an approach, given that Walker’s upcoming free agency figures to be impacted somewhat by the procedure. Though he has suggested that it’s actually a good thing — it ought to fix a long-standing problem — any uncertainty is problematic when guaranteed money is on the table. And entering the market with draft pick compensation would only increase the risk for Walker. That seems to leave some daylight for a new contract that would keep him in New York for a few years. Rubin notes, too, that Walker has remained involved even after his season ended, suggesting that he truly enjoyed being with the club.
  • In some part, the presence of Jay Bruce suggests that the team isn’t fully convinced it can afford Cespedes, as the lefty slugger provides another corner outfield option through his $13MM option. Rubin says the team was already going to commit that cash before Bruce ended his rough second half on a high note. That does begin to tilt the Mets’ lineup to the left side, as both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto already feature as southpaw-swinging outfield options. And as Rubin also notes, the late-season return of Lucas Duda makes it nearly certain that he’ll be tendered, plugging another lefty bat in at first base. Duda’s injury-limited campaign means he won’t be owed much of a raise on his $6.725MM salary in his final year of arbitration.

Poll: Should The Mets Issue Neil Walker A Qualifying Offer?

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Certainly, the Mets have more pressing matters at the moment than deciding whether to issue a $16.7MM qualifying offer to second baseman Neil Walker. Keeping pace in the Wild Card race takes priority over keeping Walker in town for 2017.

That being said, the team doesn’t have much time until it’ll make a tough call on Walker, who’ll qualify for free agency just after turning 31. The QO was all but a given before Walker’s recent back surgery — he provided New York with 458 plate appearances of .282/.347/.476 production and 23 home runs before going down — but that procedure throws some uncertainty into the matter.

Let’s look at the scary side first. Walker’s back surgery addressed a herniated disk that was causing numbness in his toes and carried a risk of worsening problems. Any back issues are obviously concerning for a big league player of any kind, especially when teams haven’t had a chance to see how the player looks upon his return.

On the other hand, Walker says he’s already progressing nicely and is pain-free for the first time in quite a while. It’ll be three months until he can participate in baseball activities, but that’s plenty of time to allow him to prepare for a full Spring Training. Indeed, he seemingly suggests that it should be viewed as a net positive, as he’ll no longer be saddled by the pain. Plus, it’s hard to ignore Walker’s straight seasons of above-average offensive production from an up-the-middle position — one that he fielded at an average (per DRS) to above-average (per UZR) level in 2016 despite posting below-average metrics in prior years.

Certainly, the Mets are privy to much more detailed information about Walker’s health than we are. But the question seems to boil down to one of financial risk versus the evident upside, which could come in one of two ways. If Walker declines the QO, then the Mets would stand to recoup draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. And if he accepts, but returns to health, he could well represent an appealing investment — even at that high rate — on just a single season commitment. That’s all the more true given that New York would arguably we well-served to retain an additional veteran infielder given the ongoing back and neck-related questions surrounding David Wright and the still-undetermined tender status of first baseman Lucas Duda (who just returned in part-time duty from his own back troubles).

While Sandy Alderson and co. bat things around, let’s see where the MLBTR readership stands (link for app users):

Mets Notes: Lucroy, Bruce, Conforto, Walker

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Despite the glut of injuries that have hit the Mets’ pitching staff and lineup, and despite the slumps from several expected contributors, the Mets currently have a one-game lead for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. And with 10 of their 13 remaining games coming against the two worst teams in their division (the Phillies and Braves), New York has put itself in position for a return trip to the postseason. Fangraphs puts the Mets’ playoff odds at 88.9 percent, while Baseball Prospectus pegs them at 89.5 percent.

A few notes on the current NL Wild Card favorites…

  • John Harper of the New York Daily News spoke to a Mets official who admitted that the Mets badly wanted to acquire Jonathan Lucroy at the non-waiver trade deadline but found the asking price to be too substantial. The Brewers were insistent that any package for Lucroy be headlined by one of Michael Conforto or top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario, and the Mets simply weren’t comfortable trading either player. “We knew how much Lucroy would help us, but we couldn’t do it,” the unnamed source told Harper. “And looking back now, it was still the right decision. Conforto and Rosario are young, cornerstone players.”
  • Conforto, of course, is receiving scarce playing time because the Mets’ apparent fallback option, Jay Bruce, has occupied right field regularly since being acquired on Aug. 1. Bruce, though, hasn’t hit at all for the Mets, and Harper writes that his struggles have been pronounced enough that the team could have to consider buying out his $13MM option rather than exercising it. If anything, Harper argues, the struggles of Bruce in New York illustrates how badly the Mets need to retain Yoenis Cespedes, and shedding Bruce’s $13MM commitment could help them to achieve that end.
  • Interestingly, Harper also writes that there’s a “faction” among Mets decision-makers that would like to see Conforto shift over the first base full-time in 2017, but there’s still no consensus as to whether the Mets will retain Lucas Duda. The 30-year-old Duda was just activated from the disabled list yesterday after missing months due to a stress fracture in his back. He hasn’t been able to take the field much this season (41 games) and is due a raise on his $6.7MM salary in his final scheduled trip through arbitration this winter. I’m of the belief that a $7-8MM salary for a healthy Duda is a no-brainer, but only the Mets know how likely it is that Duda’s back issues will pose a lingering problem into the 2017 season.
  • Speaking of back issues, Neil Walker tells Kristie Ackert of the Daily News that he considers the Mets a “good fit” for him, but he’s remaining open to all possibilities in free agency as he heals from season-ending back surgery. Walker is already pain-free in his back and can walk and perform resistance-band exercises, but he says it’ll be three months before he can resume baseball activities. Walker adds that his agent doesn’t believe the injury will severely hamper his free agent stock. “To be honest with you, I have been playing with this for over two-and-a half-years, this has been something I have been living with,” the second baseman said. “I can tell you the last three days, I’ve gotten out of bed and my back hasn’t hurt and I haven’t had that for about two-and-a-half years.”

Neil Walker To Undergo Season-Ending Back Surgery

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SEPT. 1: Walker will indeed undergo a microdisectomy operation to repair the herniation in his back which comes with a best-case scenario of a three-month recovery, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. Doctors strongly recommended the procedure to him because of the potential for additional weakness and numbness in his lower half. Walker has been experiencing numbness in his toes and is still unable to feel one of them to this day due to the fact that the disk in his back is pressing against a nerve, per the New York Times’ James Wagner (Twitter link).

AUG. 31Mets second baseman Neil Walker is “probably opting for surgery” to repair the herniated disk in his back, manager Terry Collins told reporters after tonight’s game (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Clearly, that will end the season for the free-agent-to-be.

News of Walker’s herniated disk broke earlier this morning, and while GM Sandy Alderson originally expressed some optimism, manager Terry Collins said prior to tonight’s contest that surgery was an option, though the team and Walker were waiting on a second opinion before making a final decision. That decision, now, looks to have been made, and it comes as a significant blow for a Mets team that topped the Marlins tonight and currently sits just two games back of the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

Walker, 30, has been one of the Mets’ best hitters in 2016, batting .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs in 458 plate appearances. With the switch-hitter removed from the picture, the Mets can turn to a combination of Kelly Johnson, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes and T.J. Rivera to share time between third base and second base.

From Walker’s standpoint, the injury represents a poor way to wrap up what has been an otherwise outstanding contract year. He’ll now enter free agency with the specter of a notable surgery hanging over him and without any in-game setting via which to demonstrate his health to interested parties. Walker has been included in the top 10 on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings on multiple occasions over the course of the season, though the surgery certainly diminishes his earning power on the open market. It could also make the Mets a bit more hesitant to tender a qualifying offer to Walker following the season, though I’d still wager they’ll be making the offer, as a one-year deal for Walker following a full offseason of recovery is hardly an unappealing outcome for the team.

Neil Walker Diagnosed With Herniated Disk

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3:24pm: Surgery is an option for Walker, despite Alderson’s optimism, Collins told reporters (Twitter links via DiComo). Collins added that the Mets don’t want to put Walker in the lineup until receiving a second opinion on his back (via ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin). And, even if Walker does continue to play for the remainder of the season, Collins stated that Walker would “probably not” be able to play on an everyday basis.

12:21pm: The specific injury that has limited Mets second baseman Neil Walker is a herniated disk in his back, Mets GM Sandy Alderson told reporters including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Alderson reiterated that Walker can play through the injury, which he painted as being somewhat less serious than it had seemed yesterday after comments from manager Terry Collins.

Walker seems to be experiencing problems most directly to his lower body, with the disk issue causing some weakness in his foot per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin. That’s something that the veteran has dealt with previously, but he will nonetheless be pursuing a second opinion.

At this point, then, it’s not entirely clear how the problem will impact Walker down the stretch and in his upcoming free agency case. New York’s acquisition of Walker looks even better in retrospect than it did at the time, and he has set himself up for a nice payday with a high-powered season at the plate. But teams weighing lengthy commitments will surely be watching closely to see whether the herniated disk hampers him over the next several weeks.

Latest On Neil Walker, Steven Matz Injuries

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The Mets revealed a double dose of negative injury news today, with manager Terry Collins updating the health of second baseman Neil Walker and lefty Steven Matz.

Walker, it seems, has a fairly significant back issue that will need to be carefully managed for the rest of the season, Collins told reporters including Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). The skipper declined to specify the precise issue, but suggested both that Walker will need regular time off and that it’s a matter of at least some long-term concern (via Mike Puma of the New York Post, on Twitter).

That’s pretty awful news both for the club and for Walker, who is a free agent after the season. The 30-year-old has been excellent in New York, slashing .282/.347/.476 over 458 plate appearances, and seemed primed to receive and decline a qualifying offer en route to a nice free agent payday. Instead, there’s now serious (albeit still largely-unknown) concern about his condition.

It’s a similar story with regard to Matz, who has suffered a setback in his effort to work back from shoulder issues. The problem isn’t believed to be a structural issue or major long-term issue, but Collins acknowledges that he’s concerned the young southpaw won’t be able to return in 2016, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets.

The 25-year-old Matz has been excellent when healthy, pitching to a 3.16 ERA over 168 frames since reaching the majors last year. But he has battled through lat, elbow, and shoulder issues already in his brief MLB career.

Mets Plan To Discuss Extension With Neil Walker

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Neil Walker was acquired as a one-year rental this offseason, but Mets GM Sandy Alderson plans to discuss a long-term contract with Walker’s representatives at Excel Sports Management, per Roger Rubin at ESPN.com. “I have not had any conversations with his agent at this point,” said Alderson. “I expect that there will be some conversations before the end of the season. He’s been a terrific player for us on the field. He’s been excellent in the clubhouse.”

The on-field and clubhouse results for Walker have to be encouraging for the Mets, who in retrospect got the better of the trade that swapped Walker for lefty Jon Niese (who has since been reacquired), but the Mets now have extra incentive to explore a long-term arrangement with Walker after dealing presumptive second baseman of the future Dilson Herrera to the Reds in last Monday’s deadline deal to acquire Jay Bruce.

The 30-year-old Walker is hitting .268/.330/.449 with 19 homers (already the second-highest total of any season in his career), playing average to above-average defense at second base depending on your defensive metric of choice. On a thin free agent market, he’s be one of the most appealing bats available, as evidenced by the fact that he’s been hovering around the back end of the top 10 on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings for much of the season. A four-year deal seems like a reasonable expectation for Walker on the open market, given his strong year-to-year results at the plate, though there’s been no indication of any kind of asking price. It seems unlikely that with free agency now fewer than three months away, Walker would be open to much of a discount, especially considering the fact that the free agent market is especially thin at second base.

The other question facing the Mets is how well Walker will fit into the club’s payroll next season. Yoenis Cespedes seems likely to opt out of the remaining two years on his contract in pursuit of a larger deal, and one can imagine that the Mets will have interest in retaining him. Bartolo Colon and Alejandro De Aza, too, are each coming off the books. However, there are also numerous payroll increases facing the Mets. Bruce’s $13.5MM option figures to be exercised, while Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed are due for substantial raises on their respective salaries of $4.1MM and $5.3MM. Jacob deGrom, meanwhile, is in line for one of the richest paydays ever for a first-time arbitration-eligible player.

While there are certainly obstacles to Walker himself sounds open to the idea. The second baseman spoke to Rubin about the possibility of forgoing free agency and called the notion a “double-edged sword” but also acknowledging that the idea of an extension at the very least intrigues him. “…when you look at the big picture and you look at what’s going on here and you look at how I fit in here and how happy I’ve been … this is a really good fit for me.”

NL East News & Rumors: Ichiro, Prado, Walker, Phillies

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Ichiro Suzuki joined the 3000-hit club today, as the Marlins outfielder collected his milestone hit in the form of a seventh-inning triple during Miami’s 10-7 win over the Rockies.  Suzuki became the 30th player in MLB history to collect 3000 hits, though of course, Ichiro is now up to 4278 career hits counting his storied career in Japan.  At age 42, Ichiro has shown no inclination to retire, so he should be able to climb several more steps up the all-time hit leaderboard before he finally hangs up the cleats.  Congratulations to one of baseball’s legends as we check out some notes from around the NL East…

  • The Marlins have yet to make Martin Prado a contract offer but they’re expected to do so after the season, a team source tells Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.  The 32-year-old has hit well in his walk year, carrying a .318/.372/.422 slash line over 452 plate appearances into today’s action.  Prado has long been regarded as a clubhouse leader in Miami and he has also won the respect of Don Mattingly in the skipper’s first season running the Marlins.  If Prado leaves in free agency, the Marlins do have a ready-made internal replacement for third base in Derek Dietrich.
  • The Mets have yet to approach Neil Walker about a new contract, the free agent second baseman tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, though Walker is quite open to remaining with the team.  “When I say I am excited about the future here, I don’t just mean what I think we can still do this season,” Walker said.  “I like the players we have here, I like what I think we are building for this season and for years to come.  I’d like to be a part of it, yeah.”  A team source tells Ackert that the Mets will “make a good run” at re-signing Walker, and GM Sandy Alderson said earlier this week that the club would talk to Walker, especially given how Dilson Herrera’s trade shakes up the Mets’ middle infield plans.  Ackert, for her part, believes re-signing Walker would bring some much-needed stability to a Mets infield that has big injury question marks in David Wright and Lucas Duda.
  • Hector Neris and Edubray Ramos will see a lot of action over the last two months of the season and the relievers could be trade chips for the Phillies this winter, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.  The Phils scored one major trade haul for Ken Giles last winter, and if Neris and/or Ramos both continue their impressive performance, they could also bring back a solid return.  As Phillies GM Matt Klentak noted about the trade deadline, “the industry is shifting.  They’re paying a lot for elite bullpen arms.  We learned that a little bit last offseason ourselves, and I think that’s been reinforced through some of the trades this year.”

Latest On The Mets’ Deadline Plans

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The Mets aren’t likely to make a big splash at the trade deadline, as Mike Puma of the New York Post notes that the team simply doesn’t have the prospect depth to acquire a big bat as they did last season with Yoenis Cespedes.  A bullpen addition is still in the team’s plans, however, and as Puma reports in a separate tweet, the Mets could add one reliever prior to August 1 and then another in the August waiver period.  Just yesterday, Puma reported that Jeremy Jeffress, Joe Smith and Chris Withrow were a few of the relief names on the Mets’ radar.

It could be a quiet deadline in another sense for the Mets should the team suddenly hit a slump, as Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that the Mets wouldn’t become deadline sellers in the event that they were to fall back in the standings over the next week.  In fact, the Mets would likely still look to buy even if they did have a losing streak, as the team is looking ahead to a weak September schedule as an opportunity to make a late run at a wild card, if not the NL East if the Nationals slow down.

At least a couple of notable teams (the Royals and White Sox) are considering becoming deadline sellers after a dip in form, and the Yankees have long been seen as candidates to unload veterans as August 1 approaches.  Any of these teams could become big players in the trade market if they made some of their established stars available, and the Mets could follow suit by shopping Cespedes or Neil Walker.  In regards to those two, however, Carig reports that the team prefers to receive draft pick compensation in the form of the qualifying offer if either or both leave in free agency this winter.  The Mets also don’t have interest in dealing Bartolo Colon, which isn’t surprising given the injury questions within their rotation.

NL Notes: Niese, Vizcaino, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers

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In an appearance on Pittsburgh’s 93.7 The Fan, Pirates GM Neal Huntington admits that the winter swap of Neil Walker for Jon Niese was a mistake. “We felt that that was our best return, and it has not played out that way, and that’s a challenge,” Huntington said. “We own that. We accept that.” Reports have suggested that the Bucs are hoping to trade Niese. For the time being, he’s headed for bullpen duties, as Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Though Huntington expressed hope that Niese can turn things around, he was unusually forthright in acknowledging the faulty trade (while also hinting at the team’s alternatives in shopping Walker). “In hindsight, maybe the two fringe prospects and trying to figure out where to reallocate the money might have been a better return,” he said.

  • Niese’s former club, the Mets, surely didn’t envision a scenario where the lefty could hold appeal in 2016, but Marc Carig of Newsday writes that the club isn’t ruling out a reunion. New York is still prioritizing pen help, but seems increasingly open to the idea of bringing back a pitcher who had a good deal of success over his time with the club. The 29-year-old has been hit hard in Pittsburgh, but carried a 3.91 ERA in over 1,000 innings through eight years with the Mets.
  • Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino left tonight’s action with what appeared to be an oblique issue. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, the preliminary expectation is that he’ll require a DL stint. The injury comes at an inopportune time for Vizcaino’s trade chances, as he has already missed action of late and has struggled when he has been available. Over his last five appearances, Vizcaino has allowed five earned runs on eight hits and seven walks while recording only a pair of strikeouts. Once viewed as one of the best relief arms on the market, it seems increasingly likely that he’ll end up staying in Atlanta for the rest of the season.
  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says the his club will be flexible in the build-up to the deadline, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. “I don’t think its productive to pigeonhole yourself into thinking you have needs in just one specific role as the key to improving this club,” Epstein said. “There are so many variables. Things change. The way you look now may not be the way you look in mid-September. We are going to be open-minded to adding talented players knowing that could happen.” Epstein did discuss the idea of adding a starter, though Chicago’s rotation has been quite solid. “We are always looking to add long-term starting pitching,” he noted. “Sometimes the trading deadline can be a better forum for that than the offseason. Sometimes it is not. It is important to stay focused this time of year on this year’s club. You still want to keep one eye on opportunities that can help you down the road as well.”
  • The Giants are seeing solid progress on some injured players, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports. Outfielder Hunter Pence is set to begin a rehab assignment, where he’ll test his surgically-repaired hamstring. And second baseman Joe Panik has passed a concussion test, meaning he could soon be cleared to start his own brief rehab stint. Righties Cory Gearrin and Matt Cain are also nearing readiness; the former has extended his throwing distance while the latter reached 93 pitches in an outing tonight (though he was also touched for 10 runs).
  • The division-rival Dodgers also got some injury news, though it’s not necessarily all positive. Outfielder Trayce Thompson has lower back pain that could land him on the DL. Fellow outfielder Andre Ethier is now looking like he’s more likely to make it back in mid-August, about two weeks later than had been targeted, though the team is still awaiting the results of a bone scan on his injured leg before it gets a clearer picture.
  • While the Dodgers think they’ll utilize prized lefty Julio Urias at the major league level again later this year, manager Dave Roberts says he’ll work at the pen at Triple-A for the time being. (Via MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM; Twitter link.) Los Angeles has been understandably cautious with his workload, and seemingly hopes to keep him fresh while also tamping down the innings for the time being.
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