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Nathaniel Lowe

Nationals Win Arbitration Hearing Against Nathaniel Lowe

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The Nationals have won their arbitration hearing with Nathaniel Lowe, the TalkNats website reports.  Lowe will receive a $10.3MM salary for the 2025 season, rather than the $11.1MM salary he was hoping to land by going to a hearing.

First base was a major target area for D.C. this offseason, and the Nats addressed this need by acquiring Lowe from the Rangers for reliever Robert Garcia back in December.  Lowe hit .274/.359/.432 over 2576 plate appearances (123 wRC+) in his four seasons in Texas, with a resume that includes a Silver Slugger Award in 2022, and both a Gold Glove and a World Series ring in 2023.  Since the Rangers were looking to create room in their lineup and bolster their pen, the Garcia-for-Lowe trade helped both Texas and Washington check some boxes on their winter to-do lists.

Money was also a factor, as the Rangers were able to re-allocate Lowe’s projected salary towards other needs.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Lowe to earn $10.7MM, with that predicted salary falling right in between Lowe’s desired $11.1MM payday and the Rangers’ figure of $10.3MM.

An arbitration hearing is something of an awkward way for a player and a team to kick off a new partnership, yet even in defeat, Lowe’s $10.3MM salary is still a nice raise over the $7.5MM he earned in 2024.  He’ll have another year of arbitration eligibility before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2026 season.

Lowe’s hearing officially wraps up the 2024-25 arbitration class.  Of the 17 players who didn’t reach an agreement before the January 9 figure-filing deadline, nine went to hearings, with teams winning five of those nine cases.

Alex Bregman, Tigers Reportedly At “Standstill”

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Spring training is now just a few weeks away but many free agents are still unsigned, with Alex Bregman arguably being the most notable. The Tigers are one club that have been connected to him but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that talks are “at a standstill.”

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR ranked Bregman the #3 free agent of the winter, behind Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Soto and Burnes are both now signed, leaving Bregman as the top guy still out there. We predicted a seven-year, $182MM deal that ended up being sort of a midpoint for Bregman’s negotiations earlier in the offseason. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman $156MM over six years, though the third baseman was trying to get to $200MM.

Rather than meet in the middle, Houston walked away. They lined up a deal with the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado, though Arenado used his no-trade clause to quash that. Instead, they acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs and signed Christian Walker to take over at first base. Since then, Bregman has been connected to clubs like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and others, but without much apparent momentum.

The Cubs reportedly sniffed around the possibility of a short-term deal for Bregman but agent Scott Boras said last week that Bregman wasn’t considering that path. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer also recently downplayed the possibility of the Cubs getting involved. “I think likely,” Hoyer said at Cubs Convention a few days ago, when asked if the Cubs’ third baseman is already in the organization. “Certainly, we’ll look to supplement. Infield is an area we’re focused on (for the bench), but I think the likelihood is yes.”

Matt Shaw is perhaps the best solution there but he has not yet made his major league debut. There’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running in 2025, so there’s an argument for adding someone established, but it seems the Cubs are trying to be more opportunistic than aggressive in Bregman’s market.

It makes for something of a staring contest with the 2025 season approaching. It was around this time last year that Boras started pivoting to short-term deals for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Boras has apparently made that turn with client Pete Alonso, as Alonso’s camp reportedly pitched a three-year deal to the Mets recently.

But with Bregman still holding out hope for a longer deal, it seems to be leading to the general sluggishness of the third base market. The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason, with one-year deals for Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres being their primary moves so far. They have Jace Jung and Matt Vierling as potential in-house options at the hot corner, so they have a bit of leverage to wait out Bregman.

With Vierling also capable of playing the outfield, Jung seems like the logical choice for third base right now. He struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances last year but that was a small-sample debut of 94 plate appearances. He didn’t have those kind of strikeout rates in the minors and still managed to draw a lot of walks while making his major league debut. Like with Shaw, there’s no guarantee that he can take the job and run with it but the Tigers might feel they have enough cover to not go crazy on a Bregman deal.

As long as Bregman stays out there, it seems to be preventing other dominoes from falling. The Cardinals came into the winter looking to do something of a reset but they haven’t been able to execute it yet, which seems to be at least partially because Arenado wanted clarity on Bregman’s situation before he’d commit to being traded. That has left St. Louis in a sort of holding pattern where they might just keep Arenado and other veterans into the start of the 2025 season.

Daniel Kramer of MLB.com also reports that the Bregman situation is leaving the Mariners playing a waiting game. While the M’s are not in on Bregman, they are impacted by the situation nonetheless. Kramer writes that the M’s “believe they’re positioned to make a notable move before Spring Training” but are holding on to see if a Bregman deal sparks movement elsewhere, since upgrading at third is on their to-do list.

Seattle has been fairly quiet this winter, with their signing of infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year, $3.5MM deal being their most notable move. Kramer reports that the M’s don’t plan to deploy him at second and he will be in the mix for playing time at first base more than anywhere else. That perhaps suggests Solano will be platooning with Luke Raley, since Solano is better against lefties and Raley the opposite.

For third base, Kramer floats various possible scenarios that could come to pass as the offseason progresses. He mentions that the Red Sox could land Bregman, which could perhaps make someone like Triston Casas more available. Casas doesn’t play third but it could perhaps lead to Solano moving across the diamond for more time over there. Kramer also floats the possibility of the Tigers signing Bregman and making Jung available, or a similar situation with someone on the Blue Jays like Orelvis Martínez or Addison Barger. It’s also possible that infielders like Luis Arráez of the Padres or Willi Castro of the Twins become more available once Bregman is off the board.

Until then, the Mariners are left laying in the cut, though they have explored other options. They had talks with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner and Bellinger, though the Hoerner deal seemed to become less likely when Paredes was sent to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal. Perhaps the Hoerner trade talks could be revisited if Bregman ends up a Cub, which is perhaps another reason for the M’s to wait. The Bellinger connection was reported earlier in the offseason.

Another path the M’s considered, according to Kramer, was getting Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. However, it seems Texas didn’t feel great about dealing Lowe within their division, which led to him being dealt to the Nationals instead.

For now, it all feels like the part of the standoff where everyone has their hand by their holster, waiting for movement. It’s possible that bodies start dropping once someone flinches, but it’s a staredown for the time being.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Acquire Nathaniel Lowe

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The Nationals and Rangers have swung a one-for-one trade that will see first baseman Nathaniel Lowe head to Washington in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report the deal, which has now been officially announced by both teams.

Lowe will change teams via trade for the second time in his career, as it was just over four years ago that Lowe was dealt from the Rays to the Rangers as part of a six-player swap.  The Rays’ first base depth had left Lowe struggling for playing time in his first two MLB seasons, but he immediately found a regular job once Texas installed him as its everyday first baseman.  Lowe has played in 615 of a possible 648 regular-season games in his four seasons with the Rangers, while hitting .274/.359/.432 with 78 homers in 2576 plate appearances.

Between his 123 wRC+ over those four seasons and increasingly strong defensive metrics, Lowe has been worth 10.6 fWAR during his Rangers tenure.  It isn’t superstar production and the left-handed hitting Lowe has naturally been more consistent against right-handed pitching, but he has at worst been a steady regular, with hints of a higher ceiling of production.  Lowe hit .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers over 645 PA in 2022, though a .363 BABIP may have helped contribute to that career year.

Despite Lowe’s very solid play, there had been some whispers that the Rangers could be looking to clear some room at first base.  The recently-acquired Jake Burger figures to get a good chunk of the first base at-bats now that Lowe is off the roster, with Josh Smith, Justin Foscue, or Ezequiel Duran also in the running for playing time depending on how the Rangers opt to arrange their infield.  Josh Jung is slated to be the regular third baseman but Burger, Smith, or Duran could also be used at the hot corner based on matchups.

Lowe’s increasing arbitration price tag was also surely a factor in the Rangers’ decision.  Now entering his second arb-eligible year, Lowe was projected to earn $10.7MM for the 2025 season.  It is hardly an ungainly sum for a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with Lowe’s offensive production, but since Lowe turns 30 in July, Texas might’ve been considering the longer-term question of whether or not Lowe was a candidate for a contract extension.

Today’s trade answers that question, and gaining more flexibility at a premium position allows the Rangers to both see what they have in internal options, or to potentially keep first base open for a bigger free agent or trade target down the road.  Or, such a bat could still come this offseason, as Texas now has an even greater need for left-handed hitting depth after dealing Lowe.

It was no secret that the Nationals were looking to upgrade at first base this winter, as such free agents as Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt were on Washington’s radar.  Walker signed with the Astros and Goldschmidt joined the Yankees just within the last week, which quite possibly prompted the Nats to complete this trade as the first-base market continues to quickly thin out.

The Lowe deal is the clearest sign yet that the Nationals are ready to end their rebuild after five straight losing seasons.  The Nats’ youth movement has led to CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Luis Garcia Jr. becoming parts of the everyday lineup, but plenty more offensive help was still required for a team that finished near the back of the pack in several major offensive categories.

In adding Lowe, the Nationals now have a player still in his prime who can bring a veteran voice and championship experience to the clubhouse, in addition to what Lowe can provide on the field.  There is even a slightly hometown-hero aspect to the trade, as Lowe was born a few hours’ down the road from D.C. in Norfolk, Virginia.

The Nats have plenty of payroll space available, so Lowe’s salaries aren’t any kind of concern for the team.  Addressing first base by trading for Lowe instead of, say, spending much more in salary and draft capital to sign a Walker or a Pete Alonso allows president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to still keep his financial powder dry for other big moves this winter or (perhaps more likely) next offseason or potentially at the trade deadline.  Rizzo and team ownership might prefer to give it one more season to see what they really have in their young core before really putting the pedal down in a full-fledged run towards contention.  In this scenario, Lowe is already under control if 2026 is really the Nationals “go for it” kind of year.

Garcia’s role in the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Nationals now have an even greater need for relief pitching after dealing away a southpaw who showed plenty of promise in his first two Major League seasons.  Washington claimed Garcia off waivers from the Marlins in August 2023, and the lefty has a 4.03 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 91 2/3 career relief innings.

Fifty-nine and two-thirds of those frames came last season, as Garcia posted a misleading 4.22 ERA that was inflated by some bad luck.  Garcia had a .329 BABIP and a very low 57.2% strand rate, and his 2.71 SIERA is perhaps a better reflection of just how solid Garcia’s performance was in 2024.  The left-hander doesn’t bring much in the way of velocity, but his fastball is used primarily to set up his excellent changeup, which was quietly one of the more effective changeups thrown by any pitcher in baseball.

With a swath of above-average Statcast metrics, Garcia will provide a huge boost to the Texas bullpen if he can replicate those numbers on his new club.  Garcia joins Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner as recent new additions to a relief corps that was destined to undergo an overhaul with Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, and David Robertson all entering free agency.  Since this trio is still unsigned, the Rangers could seek out reunions with any of their own free agents, but naturally it makes sense to fortify the pen with other longer-term arms like Garcia.  The left-hander turns 29 in June but is arb-controlled through the 2029 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Yankees’ First Base Search

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The Yankees have been linked to such free-agent first baseman as Christian Walker and Pete Alonso this winter, and talks seemingly remain ongoing in some form with the Cubs about Cody Bellinger’s availability.  Recent reports suggest that the Yankees and Cubs are upwards of $10MM apart in deciding how much of Bellinger’s salary will be covered by Chicago, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes today that not much has changed in the stalemate between the two clubs.  As Heyman puts it, “it’s a matter of ’who blinks first,’ if ever.”

If none of these targets end up being a fit, the Yankees are “also considering” several other backup plans.  According to Heyman, these options include signing free agent Carlos Santana, or exploring a trade for the Guardians’ Josh Naylor or the Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe.  Given how Yankees GM Brian Cashman usually casts a wide berth in checking in on numerous players every offseason, it’s probably safe to guess that more than just these aforementioned first basemen have drawn some level of interest from New York.

Signing Santana would be the most straight-forward and cost-effective move of the bunch, as Santana will almost surely require just a one-year guarantee because he is entering his age-39 season.  Despite his age, Santana rebounded from a few middling seasons to post a .238/.328/.420 slash line and 23 home runs for the Twins over 594 plate appearances in 2024, while also winning the AL Gold Glove at first base.  The combination of offense and defense translated to 3.0 fWAR for Santana, the third-highest of his 15 Major League seasons.

This production will merit Santana a raise on the $5.25MM he received in his one-year deal with Minnesota last winter, but concerns over his age and possible regression will probably limit his salary.  Signing Santana would also be a relatively low-upside play, whereas trading for Naylor or Lowe represents a higher ceiling for production.

Trading for Lowe would also mean more than just a one-year commitment, as the first baseman is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Projected for a $10.7MM salary this year, Lowe is coming off another solid season that saw him hit .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers over 565 PA, and Lowe also delivered quality defense as a Gold Glove finalist behind Santana.

There was a little buzz about Lowe’s possible availability heading into the trade deadline last summer, but nothing in the way of concrete reports that Texas was seriously considering moving the 29-year-old.  In re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Rangers are certainly aiming to return to contention in 2025, but moving Lowe to address another need on the active roster is a plausible tactic.  Since the Rangers are known to be looking for left-handed hitting, however, however, dealing such a lefty swinger in Lowe would only serve to tilt the lineup further to the right.

Trading Naylor would also be an imperfect move for a Guardians team that needs offensive help, but Cleveland has typically looked maximize its return on notable players by trading them before they reach free agency.  Naylor is therefore a more clear-cut trade candidate than Lowe, and Naylor’s projected $12MM arbitration salary won’t break the bank.  While Lowe or the switch-hitting Santana would also be good fits hitting at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right field seems taylor-made for Naylor’s left-handed power bat, and it is easy to imagine Naylor topping his career-best total of 31 homers (set in 2024) over a full season in the Bronx.

Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel are the likeliest candidates to step in at first base for the Guardians if Naylor is traded, though that is putting extra pressure on a pair of inexperienced players, plus the Guards would also need some extra first base/DH depth in that scenario.  Cleveland is also in need of outfield help, though the Yankees might not be a fit in that sense since they’re looking for outfielders themselves in the wake of Juan Soto’s departure.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Rangers Designate Jared Walsh For Assignment

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The Rangers announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, led by the club designating first baseman Jared Walsh for assignment. Taking Walsh’s spot on the active roster will be first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who the club has activate from the 10-day injured list. In addition, Texas announced that catcher Jonah Heim has been placed on the bereavement list, with catcher Sam Huff recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the big league roster.

Walsh, 30, joined the Rangers on a minor league deal and his .250/.368/.458 slash line in 57 spring plate appearances impressed enough to earn the slugger a spot on Texas’s Opening Day roster when Lowe found himself sidelined by an oblique strain to open the season. It was a reasonable call for the Rangers to make at the time between Walsh’s solid showing this spring and his track record of past success for the Angels, as Walsh had posted an excellent 130 wRC+ in Anaheim across the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone well for Walsh since then. He hit a paltry .197/.258/.355 over his final two years with the Halos while battling thoracic outlet syndrome as well as a neurological illness that has caused him to suffer from persistent headaches and insomnia. Through 17 games with the Rangers, Walsh has looked better than he did when he posted a 33 wRC+ with the Angels last year but has nonetheless struggled to a lackluster .226/.317/.321 batting line across 60 trips to the plate in a Rangers uniform.

Of course, it’s difficult to draw significant conclusions from such a small sample size. On one hand, Walsh has posted a strong 11.7% walk rate so far this season and has an xwOBA of .324 that outstrips his .294 wOBA by 30 points, suggesting better days could be ahead for the veteran. On the other, however, Walsh’s 35% strikeout rate is nearing an untenable level and a far cry from the 24.1% rate he flashed during his peaks years with the Angels, and his meager 84 wRC+ is being floated by a .355 BABIP that clocks in more than 50 points above his career mark.

Perhaps most concerning about Walsh’s performance so far is his lack of power. Between the 2020 and ’21 seasons, Walsh hit 38 home runs in just 176 games with an excellent .251 ISO. So far this season, however, he’s managed to connect on just three extra-base hits with one home run. While that could certainly change if he can find more at-bats at the big league level, Walsh’s average exit velocity this year is just 84.2 mph per Statcast. That places him in the fifth percentile among all major league hitters, putting him line with relatively light-hitting players such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gio Urshela.

Even so, Walsh’s max exit velocity of 112.5 mph indicates that his power potential is still there. An above-average 9.4% barrel rate also provides optimism that more power could be in the first baseman’s future, though first he’ll need to find playing time in the majors for that to come to fruition. Going forward, the Rangers will have seven days to either trade, release, or waive the veteran. Any club that claims Walsh off waivers would take on the remainder of his $1.25MM salary for the 2024 campaign, and if he goes unclaimed the Rangers will be able to assign Walsh outright to the minors. Walsh would have the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency, though in doing so he would forfeit the remainder of his $1.25MM salary of this season.

Walsh’s departure from the active roster makes room for the return of Lowe, who has been the club’s regular first baseman in each of the past three seasons. That arrangement has gone quite well for the Rangers, with Lowe slashing a respectable .276/.359/.441 in 475 games with the club while picking up a Gold Glove award last year in addition to a Silver Slugger award the year prior. In addition to bumping Walsh from the club’s roster, Lowe’s return seems likely to cut into the playing time afforded to utility youngster Ezequiel Duran, who made seven starts at first in Lowe’s absence despite struggling to a 59 wRC+ so far in the young 2024 campaign.

Along with Lowe’s return, Texas announced that catcher Heim is headed to the bereavement list. The 2023 All Star and Gold Glove award winner has been a steady source of production for the club once again this year, impressing defensively behind the plate while posting a respectable 102 wRC+ on offense. The Rangers will be without their top option behind the plate for the next few days, however, and figure to rely on a tandem of Huff and Andrew Knizner while their primary backstop is away. Huff has posted solid numbers in limited playing time at the big league level to this point in his career, with a career .262/.314/.462 slash line in 75 games dating back to the 2020 season. Knizner, meanwhile, has gone 1-for-14 with four strikeouts in limited playing time with Texas to this point in the young 2024 campaign.

Nathaniel Lowe Questionable For Opening Day

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Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been diagnosed with an oblique strain that could keep him sidelined long enough that he’ll need to open the year on the injured list, manager Bruce Bochy announced to the Rangers beat this morning (X link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry). As Landry points out, it’d be the first IL stint of the ultra-durable Lowe’s professional career.

Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com adds that the team provided a rough, initial timetable for Lowe of three to four weeks. That generally aligns with the timeframe that’s common for most oblique injuries of note; even Grade 1 strains tend to sideline players for around a month. Presumably, the Rangers will provide further updates as camp progresses. Lowe was just lifted from Thursday’s Cactus League game after reporting some tightness in his side to the team’s training staff.

Texas has sufficient infield depth to withstand a short-term loss of Lowe, but his subtraction from the lineup would still be a notable hit to the team’s offense. While his 2023 performance (.262/.360/.414, 17 homers, 114 wRC+) wasn’t nearly as strong as his outstanding breakout campaign in 2022 (.302/.358/.492, 27 homers, 141 wRC+), Lowe was still one of the most productive hitters in a stacked Rangers lineup.

In the event that Lowe opens the year on the injured list, there are a number of routes the Rangers could go. Lowe has taken a whopping 94.2% of the team’s plate appearances at first base over the past three seasons, so Texas hasn’t needed to replace him too often. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran and catcher Sam Huff have both seen very brief time at first base on the rare days Lowe has been given a breather. The Rangers have bat-first infield prospect Justin Foscue in camp, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so he’d also be an option to make his debut and take some reps at first base. Former Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is also in camp as a non-roster invitee and has thus far had a big showing in an obviously limited sample (7-for-17 with a double, a homer, three walks and four strikeouts).

The Rangers acquired Lowe from the Rays in a rare trade that’s gone poorly for Tampa Bay — at least thus far. In three seasons as Texas’ primary first baseman, Lowe has slashed .276/.359/.440 (122 wRC+) with 62 homers, an 11% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Texas sent infielder Osleivis Basabe, catcher Heriberto Hernandez and outfielder Alexander Ovalles back to the Rays in that swap. Basabe made his MLB debut last year with the Rays but struggled in 31 games. Hernandez ranks 18th among Rays farmhands at Baseball America and isn’t in the team’s top 30 at MLB.com. Ovalles was selected by the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

The Rangers’ Breakout Slugger

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The Rangers’ shift from a rebuilding mindset into a win-now mode began in the offseason with a combined $556MM spent on Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. It continued over the summer when Texas held onto several trade candidates of note (e.g. Martin Perez, Matt Moore) and overhauled their leadership; gone were manager Chris Woodward and longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, leaving the team likely to conduct a managerial search this winter and leaving third-year GM Chris Young with full baseball operations autonomy.

Another aggressive winter seems likely, as the Rangers still have plenty of work to do on an improved but flawed roster. There’s been talk of a new contract with lefty Martin Perez, following his breakout in a return to his Rangers roots, but that’d only be one piece of the puzzle. There’s hope that Josh Jung will solidify third base, but there are questions behind the plate, in the outfield and on the pitching staff.

Nathaniel Lowe | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Texas has currently dropped nine games in a row, erasing any delusions that perhaps this team may be turning the corner right now, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bright spots to the season. Seager has hit well. Semien has shaken off a disastrous start and, since mid-May, looked quite strong. Gray has lived up to his own multi-year deal. Perhaps the brightest spot of all, however, has come in the form of a breakout for slugger Nathaniel Lowe.

Acquired in a Dec. 2020 trade that sent three minor leaguers to the Rays, the now-27-year-old Lowe had a solid but uneven first year in Texas. He homered six times in his first 22 games (98 plate appearances) as a Ranger before settling in at a more modest, but still productive pace. Lowe continued hitting well but “only” chipped in another 12 home runs over his next 544 plate appearances. He finished the year as a .264/.357/.415 hitter — 14% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

For much of the 2022 season, Lowe looked quite similar; he posted a 115 wRC+ in the season’s first half slashing .270/.323/.429. Since the All-Star break, however, Lowe has been not only the Rangers’ best hitter, but one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball. He’s slashing an absurd .363/.414/.632 with 11 homers, nine doubles and two triples in just 186 plate appearances. In that time, 52.3% of the balls off his bat have been hit 95 mph or greater; his average exit velocity has spiked from 89.3 mph to 91.3 mph, and he’s gone from barreling 7.9% of the balls he puts into play to a much heftier 12.9%.

This torrid six-week stretch has bolstered Lowe’s season line to a robust .302/.355/.500, and he’s hitting .282/.356/.455 in a total of 1172 plate appearances since being traded to Texas in the first place.

This is probably the best stretch of Lowe’s big league career, but he’s been quietly productive from the day he got to the big leagues in 2019 and increasingly looks the part of a bona fide middle-of-the-order hitter. Skeptics will point to this year’s .358 average on balls in play and wonder when he might regress, but it’s not a given, or even likely, that he will. Lowe touts a .346 BABIP in 1417 career plate appearances, suggesting that he’s capable of sustaining a mark well north of the league average (.291 this season).

Unlike many players who keep their BABIP figures high, Lowe isn’t beating close grounders and getting there via his wheels; rather, he does so by effectively spitting on any shifts against him. Lowe leads the Majors in opposite-field hits dating back to 2021, and he’s tied with Giancarlo Stanton for the game’s third-base wRC+ mark when hitting to the ball the opposite way during that time (only Tim Anderson and Aaron Judge have been better).

Lowe has only been shifted in 20.1% of his plate appearances this season, which isn’t among the very lowest rates in the league but is well below the league average. Moreover, the only lefties who rank below him (min. 250 plate appearances) are Raimel Tapia, Nicky Lopez, Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, Luis Gonzalez, Joey Wendle, Michael Harris II, Adam Frazier, Eric Hosmer, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, Brendan Donovan and J.P. Crawford. There are some good hitters in that bunch (Kwan, Arraez, Nimmo and Harris in particular), but it’s mostly a list of contact-oriented hitters who don’t pose much of a power threat. With the exception of Harris, there’s no lefty-swinging slugger in MLB who is shifted less frequently than Lowe.

Similarly, Lowe isn’t fazed by left-handed pitching. His 141 wRC+ mark against lefties over the past two seasons is 26th among qualified hitters and trails only Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo for the top mark among left-handed hitters in that time. Again, it’s tempting to say there’s just been some small-sample, BABIP-related luck in play, but in 2022 Lowe has punched out less against fellow lefties and hit for more power than against southpaws than when holding the platoon advantage. It’s not a simple case of some bloop singles falling in and inflating his stat line; he’s genuinely been a better hitter against lefties this year.

If there’s a knock on Lowe’s game, it has nothing to do with his work at the plate. His defense, however, is quite suspect by most public measures. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Statcast (11 outs and 8 runs below average) feel he’s been among the game’s worst defenders at his position (or at any position, for that matter). No player in the Majors has made more errors at first since the start of the 2021 season than Lowe’s 20. (Miguel Sano is close, in far fewer innings, but the point stands.)

Even if there’s a move to more designated hitter work in Lowe’s future, though, his bat should more than carry him at that position. He doesn’t draw many walks but has above-average contact skills, even when chasing pitches off the plate, and his ability to flip balls out to left field (or, in some instances, crush them into the left-field seats) should serve him well in that capacity even if he never pares back his higher-than-average chase rate.

Although Lowe has now played in parts of four Major League seasons, he’ll finish out the 2022 campaign shy of three years of Major League service time. At two years, 145 days he’ll be a lock for Super Two status and reach arbitration this winter, where his power numbers and durability will serve him well. That shouldn’t matter much for a Rangers club that spent more than a half billion dollars in free agency that winter, and finishing at two-plus years of service means Lowe will be controllable for another four seasons, through his age-30 campaign.

The Rays deservedly have a reputation for being a risky team with which to trade, and there’s plenty of time for any of Heriberto Hernandez, Osleivis Basabe or Alexander Ovalles to make the trade look more palatable from their vantage point. All three are having strong seasons, and Hernandez in particular is ranked anywhere from 23rd (Baseball America) to eighth (FanGraphs) among Tampa Bay farmhands. But as things stand right now, the Rangers have a middle-of-the-order complement to Semien and Seager for the next four years, and they’re not desperately missing any of the players they surrendered to acquire him.

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