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Latest On Yankees’ First Base Search

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The Yankees have been linked to such free-agent first baseman as Christian Walker and Pete Alonso this winter, and talks seemingly remain ongoing in some form with the Cubs about Cody Bellinger’s availability.  Recent reports suggest that the Yankees and Cubs are upwards of $10MM apart in deciding how much of Bellinger’s salary will be covered by Chicago, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes today that not much has changed in the stalemate between the two clubs.  As Heyman puts it, “it’s a matter of ’who blinks first,’ if ever.”

If none of these targets end up being a fit, the Yankees are “also considering” several other backup plans.  According to Heyman, these options include signing free agent Carlos Santana, or exploring a trade for the Guardians’ Josh Naylor or the Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe.  Given how Yankees GM Brian Cashman usually casts a wide berth in checking in on numerous players every offseason, it’s probably safe to guess that more than just these aforementioned first basemen have drawn some level of interest from New York.

Signing Santana would be the most straight-forward and cost-effective move of the bunch, as Santana will almost surely require just a one-year guarantee because he is entering his age-39 season.  Despite his age, Santana rebounded from a few middling seasons to post a .238/.328/.420 slash line and 23 home runs for the Twins over 594 plate appearances in 2024, while also winning the AL Gold Glove at first base.  The combination of offense and defense translated to 3.0 fWAR for Santana, the third-highest of his 15 Major League seasons.

This production will merit Santana a raise on the $5.25MM he received in his one-year deal with Minnesota last winter, but concerns over his age and possible regression will probably limit his salary.  Signing Santana would also be a relatively low-upside play, whereas trading for Naylor or Lowe represents a higher ceiling for production.

Trading for Lowe would also mean more than just a one-year commitment, as the first baseman is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Projected for a $10.7MM salary this year, Lowe is coming off another solid season that saw him hit .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers over 565 PA, and Lowe also delivered quality defense as a Gold Glove finalist behind Santana.

There was a little buzz about Lowe’s possible availability heading into the trade deadline last summer, but nothing in the way of concrete reports that Texas was seriously considering moving the 29-year-old.  In re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Rangers are certainly aiming to return to contention in 2025, but moving Lowe to address another need on the active roster is a plausible tactic.  Since the Rangers are known to be looking for left-handed hitting, however, however, dealing such a lefty swinger in Lowe would only serve to tilt the lineup further to the right.

Trading Naylor would also be an imperfect move for a Guardians team that needs offensive help, but Cleveland has typically looked maximize its return on notable players by trading them before they reach free agency.  Naylor is therefore a more clear-cut trade candidate than Lowe, and Naylor’s projected $12MM arbitration salary won’t break the bank.  While Lowe or the switch-hitting Santana would also be good fits hitting at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right field seems taylor-made for Naylor’s left-handed power bat, and it is easy to imagine Naylor topping his career-best total of 31 homers (set in 2024) over a full season in the Bronx.

Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel are the likeliest candidates to step in at first base for the Guardians if Naylor is traded, though that is putting extra pressure on a pair of inexperienced players, plus the Guards would also need some extra first base/DH depth in that scenario.  Cleveland is also in need of outfield help, though the Yankees might not be a fit in that sense since they’re looking for outfielders themselves in the wake of Juan Soto’s departure.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Rangers Designate Jared Walsh For Assignment

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The Rangers announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, led by the club designating first baseman Jared Walsh for assignment. Taking Walsh’s spot on the active roster will be first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who the club has activate from the 10-day injured list. In addition, Texas announced that catcher Jonah Heim has been placed on the bereavement list, with catcher Sam Huff recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the big league roster.

Walsh, 30, joined the Rangers on a minor league deal and his .250/.368/.458 slash line in 57 spring plate appearances impressed enough to earn the slugger a spot on Texas’s Opening Day roster when Lowe found himself sidelined by an oblique strain to open the season. It was a reasonable call for the Rangers to make at the time between Walsh’s solid showing this spring and his track record of past success for the Angels, as Walsh had posted an excellent 130 wRC+ in Anaheim across the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone well for Walsh since then. He hit a paltry .197/.258/.355 over his final two years with the Halos while battling thoracic outlet syndrome as well as a neurological illness that has caused him to suffer from persistent headaches and insomnia. Through 17 games with the Rangers, Walsh has looked better than he did when he posted a 33 wRC+ with the Angels last year but has nonetheless struggled to a lackluster .226/.317/.321 batting line across 60 trips to the plate in a Rangers uniform.

Of course, it’s difficult to draw significant conclusions from such a small sample size. On one hand, Walsh has posted a strong 11.7% walk rate so far this season and has an xwOBA of .324 that outstrips his .294 wOBA by 30 points, suggesting better days could be ahead for the veteran. On the other, however, Walsh’s 35% strikeout rate is nearing an untenable level and a far cry from the 24.1% rate he flashed during his peaks years with the Angels, and his meager 84 wRC+ is being floated by a .355 BABIP that clocks in more than 50 points above his career mark.

Perhaps most concerning about Walsh’s performance so far is his lack of power. Between the 2020 and ’21 seasons, Walsh hit 38 home runs in just 176 games with an excellent .251 ISO. So far this season, however, he’s managed to connect on just three extra-base hits with one home run. While that could certainly change if he can find more at-bats at the big league level, Walsh’s average exit velocity this year is just 84.2 mph per Statcast. That places him in the fifth percentile among all major league hitters, putting him line with relatively light-hitting players such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gio Urshela.

Even so, Walsh’s max exit velocity of 112.5 mph indicates that his power potential is still there. An above-average 9.4% barrel rate also provides optimism that more power could be in the first baseman’s future, though first he’ll need to find playing time in the majors for that to come to fruition. Going forward, the Rangers will have seven days to either trade, release, or waive the veteran. Any club that claims Walsh off waivers would take on the remainder of his $1.25MM salary for the 2024 campaign, and if he goes unclaimed the Rangers will be able to assign Walsh outright to the minors. Walsh would have the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency, though in doing so he would forfeit the remainder of his $1.25MM salary of this season.

Walsh’s departure from the active roster makes room for the return of Lowe, who has been the club’s regular first baseman in each of the past three seasons. That arrangement has gone quite well for the Rangers, with Lowe slashing a respectable .276/.359/.441 in 475 games with the club while picking up a Gold Glove award last year in addition to a Silver Slugger award the year prior. In addition to bumping Walsh from the club’s roster, Lowe’s return seems likely to cut into the playing time afforded to utility youngster Ezequiel Duran, who made seven starts at first in Lowe’s absence despite struggling to a 59 wRC+ so far in the young 2024 campaign.

Along with Lowe’s return, Texas announced that catcher Heim is headed to the bereavement list. The 2023 All Star and Gold Glove award winner has been a steady source of production for the club once again this year, impressing defensively behind the plate while posting a respectable 102 wRC+ on offense. The Rangers will be without their top option behind the plate for the next few days, however, and figure to rely on a tandem of Huff and Andrew Knizner while their primary backstop is away. Huff has posted solid numbers in limited playing time at the big league level to this point in his career, with a career .262/.314/.462 slash line in 75 games dating back to the 2020 season. Knizner, meanwhile, has gone 1-for-14 with four strikeouts in limited playing time with Texas to this point in the young 2024 campaign.

Nathaniel Lowe Questionable For Opening Day

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Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been diagnosed with an oblique strain that could keep him sidelined long enough that he’ll need to open the year on the injured list, manager Bruce Bochy announced to the Rangers beat this morning (X link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry). As Landry points out, it’d be the first IL stint of the ultra-durable Lowe’s professional career.

Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com adds that the team provided a rough, initial timetable for Lowe of three to four weeks. That generally aligns with the timeframe that’s common for most oblique injuries of note; even Grade 1 strains tend to sideline players for around a month. Presumably, the Rangers will provide further updates as camp progresses. Lowe was just lifted from Thursday’s Cactus League game after reporting some tightness in his side to the team’s training staff.

Texas has sufficient infield depth to withstand a short-term loss of Lowe, but his subtraction from the lineup would still be a notable hit to the team’s offense. While his 2023 performance (.262/.360/.414, 17 homers, 114 wRC+) wasn’t nearly as strong as his outstanding breakout campaign in 2022 (.302/.358/.492, 27 homers, 141 wRC+), Lowe was still one of the most productive hitters in a stacked Rangers lineup.

In the event that Lowe opens the year on the injured list, there are a number of routes the Rangers could go. Lowe has taken a whopping 94.2% of the team’s plate appearances at first base over the past three seasons, so Texas hasn’t needed to replace him too often. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran and catcher Sam Huff have both seen very brief time at first base on the rare days Lowe has been given a breather. The Rangers have bat-first infield prospect Justin Foscue in camp, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so he’d also be an option to make his debut and take some reps at first base. Former Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is also in camp as a non-roster invitee and has thus far had a big showing in an obviously limited sample (7-for-17 with a double, a homer, three walks and four strikeouts).

The Rangers acquired Lowe from the Rays in a rare trade that’s gone poorly for Tampa Bay — at least thus far. In three seasons as Texas’ primary first baseman, Lowe has slashed .276/.359/.440 (122 wRC+) with 62 homers, an 11% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Texas sent infielder Osleivis Basabe, catcher Heriberto Hernandez and outfielder Alexander Ovalles back to the Rays in that swap. Basabe made his MLB debut last year with the Rays but struggled in 31 games. Hernandez ranks 18th among Rays farmhands at Baseball America and isn’t in the team’s top 30 at MLB.com. Ovalles was selected by the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

The Rangers’ Breakout Slugger

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The Rangers’ shift from a rebuilding mindset into a win-now mode began in the offseason with a combined $556MM spent on Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. It continued over the summer when Texas held onto several trade candidates of note (e.g. Martin Perez, Matt Moore) and overhauled their leadership; gone were manager Chris Woodward and longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, leaving the team likely to conduct a managerial search this winter and leaving third-year GM Chris Young with full baseball operations autonomy.

Another aggressive winter seems likely, as the Rangers still have plenty of work to do on an improved but flawed roster. There’s been talk of a new contract with lefty Martin Perez, following his breakout in a return to his Rangers roots, but that’d only be one piece of the puzzle. There’s hope that Josh Jung will solidify third base, but there are questions behind the plate, in the outfield and on the pitching staff.

Nathaniel Lowe | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Texas has currently dropped nine games in a row, erasing any delusions that perhaps this team may be turning the corner right now, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bright spots to the season. Seager has hit well. Semien has shaken off a disastrous start and, since mid-May, looked quite strong. Gray has lived up to his own multi-year deal. Perhaps the brightest spot of all, however, has come in the form of a breakout for slugger Nathaniel Lowe.

Acquired in a Dec. 2020 trade that sent three minor leaguers to the Rays, the now-27-year-old Lowe had a solid but uneven first year in Texas. He homered six times in his first 22 games (98 plate appearances) as a Ranger before settling in at a more modest, but still productive pace. Lowe continued hitting well but “only” chipped in another 12 home runs over his next 544 plate appearances. He finished the year as a .264/.357/.415 hitter — 14% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

For much of the 2022 season, Lowe looked quite similar; he posted a 115 wRC+ in the season’s first half slashing .270/.323/.429. Since the All-Star break, however, Lowe has been not only the Rangers’ best hitter, but one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball. He’s slashing an absurd .363/.414/.632 with 11 homers, nine doubles and two triples in just 186 plate appearances. In that time, 52.3% of the balls off his bat have been hit 95 mph or greater; his average exit velocity has spiked from 89.3 mph to 91.3 mph, and he’s gone from barreling 7.9% of the balls he puts into play to a much heftier 12.9%.

This torrid six-week stretch has bolstered Lowe’s season line to a robust .302/.355/.500, and he’s hitting .282/.356/.455 in a total of 1172 plate appearances since being traded to Texas in the first place.

This is probably the best stretch of Lowe’s big league career, but he’s been quietly productive from the day he got to the big leagues in 2019 and increasingly looks the part of a bona fide middle-of-the-order hitter. Skeptics will point to this year’s .358 average on balls in play and wonder when he might regress, but it’s not a given, or even likely, that he will. Lowe touts a .346 BABIP in 1417 career plate appearances, suggesting that he’s capable of sustaining a mark well north of the league average (.291 this season).

Unlike many players who keep their BABIP figures high, Lowe isn’t beating close grounders and getting there via his wheels; rather, he does so by effectively spitting on any shifts against him. Lowe leads the Majors in opposite-field hits dating back to 2021, and he’s tied with Giancarlo Stanton for the game’s third-base wRC+ mark when hitting to the ball the opposite way during that time (only Tim Anderson and Aaron Judge have been better).

Lowe has only been shifted in 20.1% of his plate appearances this season, which isn’t among the very lowest rates in the league but is well below the league average. Moreover, the only lefties who rank below him (min. 250 plate appearances) are Raimel Tapia, Nicky Lopez, Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, Luis Gonzalez, Joey Wendle, Michael Harris II, Adam Frazier, Eric Hosmer, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, Brendan Donovan and J.P. Crawford. There are some good hitters in that bunch (Kwan, Arraez, Nimmo and Harris in particular), but it’s mostly a list of contact-oriented hitters who don’t pose much of a power threat. With the exception of Harris, there’s no lefty-swinging slugger in MLB who is shifted less frequently than Lowe.

Similarly, Lowe isn’t fazed by left-handed pitching. His 141 wRC+ mark against lefties over the past two seasons is 26th among qualified hitters and trails only Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo for the top mark among left-handed hitters in that time. Again, it’s tempting to say there’s just been some small-sample, BABIP-related luck in play, but in 2022 Lowe has punched out less against fellow lefties and hit for more power than against southpaws than when holding the platoon advantage. It’s not a simple case of some bloop singles falling in and inflating his stat line; he’s genuinely been a better hitter against lefties this year.

If there’s a knock on Lowe’s game, it has nothing to do with his work at the plate. His defense, however, is quite suspect by most public measures. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Statcast (11 outs and 8 runs below average) feel he’s been among the game’s worst defenders at his position (or at any position, for that matter). No player in the Majors has made more errors at first since the start of the 2021 season than Lowe’s 20. (Miguel Sano is close, in far fewer innings, but the point stands.)

Even if there’s a move to more designated hitter work in Lowe’s future, though, his bat should more than carry him at that position. He doesn’t draw many walks but has above-average contact skills, even when chasing pitches off the plate, and his ability to flip balls out to left field (or, in some instances, crush them into the left-field seats) should serve him well in that capacity even if he never pares back his higher-than-average chase rate.

Although Lowe has now played in parts of four Major League seasons, he’ll finish out the 2022 campaign shy of three years of Major League service time. At two years, 145 days he’ll be a lock for Super Two status and reach arbitration this winter, where his power numbers and durability will serve him well. That shouldn’t matter much for a Rangers club that spent more than a half billion dollars in free agency that winter, and finishing at two-plus years of service means Lowe will be controllable for another four seasons, through his age-30 campaign.

The Rays deservedly have a reputation for being a risky team with which to trade, and there’s plenty of time for any of Heriberto Hernandez, Osleivis Basabe or Alexander Ovalles to make the trade look more palatable from their vantage point. All three are having strong seasons, and Hernandez in particular is ranked anywhere from 23rd (Baseball America) to eighth (FanGraphs) among Tampa Bay farmhands. But as things stand right now, the Rangers have a middle-of-the-order complement to Semien and Seager for the next four years, and they’re not desperately missing any of the players they surrendered to acquire him.

No Immediate Plans For Mitch Garver To Return To Catcher

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Two weeks ago, the Rangers placed catcher Mitch Garver on the 10-day injured list with a flexor sprain in his throwing forearm. That proved a minimal stay, as he was back on the roster in short order, but he’s not likely to return behind the dish any time soon.

Garver has worked exclusively as a designated hitter in the six games since returning from the IL, and he tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News he’s expecting to remain in the bat-only role for the time being. The organization doesn’t have plans for Garver to begin an imminent throwing program, and Grant suggests it’s possible the 31-year-old could be limited to DH or first base for the entire season. That’s not definitive, but in any event, it seems unlikely we’ll see Garver donning the tools of ignorance anytime soon.

Texas manager Chris Woodward has nevertheless penciled him into the lineup for all six games since his return from the IL. That’s a testament to his offensive productivity, particularly from a power perspective. Garver is only hitting .220 with a .298 on-base percentage, but he’s popped six home runs and a trio of doubles to post a .430 slugging percentage that’s well north of the .382 league mark. He’s shown no ill effects of the injury offensively, hitting three homers within the last week.

When the Rangers acquired Garver from the Twins for shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa over the offseason, they no doubt envisioned him as their primary catcher. That he’s only managed 14 starts behind the plate and won’t be able to get back imminently is a bit disappointing, but the blow has been softened by excellent starts from their other backstops.

Jonah Heim, acquired from the A’s last February in the Khris Davis — Elvis Andrus swap, has made a team-leading 23 starts at catcher. The 26-year-old is sporting an excellent .270/.356/.494 line, collecting five homers of his own. More importantly, Heim has more than doubled his walk rate relative to last season while slicing his strikeouts by more than five percentage points. After hitting .196/.239/.358 last season, the 26-year-old looks to have made strides from a plate discipline and power perspective. He probably won’t keep hitting at this pace, but he’s earned the opportunity to continue playing regularly.

Meanwhile, 24-year-old Sam Huff is up as Heim’s backup after hitting .260/.349/.575 in 19 games with Triple-A Round Rock. Huff only has 18 games of MLB experience under his belt, but he’s been regarded as one of the better prospects in the system for a while. Evaluators have long raved about his right-handed power potential, although he’s faced some questions about his receiving ability and lofty strikeout totals in the minor leagues.

While a Heim — Huff pairing isn’t the most proven group, there’s obvious upside with both players. Despite an active offseason, Texas is still using 2022 as primarily an evaluative season with an eye towards more earnest contention next year and beyond. They’ll welcome the opportunity to get younger players like Heim and Huff into the lineup so long as both are performing well, but Garver’s (at least immediate) move down the defensive spectrum will necessarily come at the expense of a few others.

As Grant covers in a second piece, that could mean fewer starts for Nathaniel Lowe and Andy Ibáñez, in particular. Lowe has been the team’s primary first baseman after a solid .264/.357/.415 showing last season. He’s not off to a good start, though, with just two homers and a .245/.300/.317 line through 150 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting Lowe has made virtually zero impact from a power perspective, and he’s seen his walk rate fall as he’s gotten more aggressive. Huff got the start at first base against Angels left-hander Reid Detmers last night, and Grant suggests he could see more time there — particularly against southpaws.

“I still believe Nate Lowe is an everyday talent,” Woodward told reporters yesterday. “He just hasn’t performed the way we’ve [expected]. I’ve been really honest with all of our guys about that. I think it’s really important to set a standard there. When you aren’t performing and somebody else is, I have a responsibility to the team.”

With Garver commanding everyday reps at DH, Lowe’s only real path to playing time is at first base. Ibáñez’s ability to play third base and the corner outfield could afford him a bit more run, but he’s off to an even worse start at the plate. Through 107 plate appearances, Ibáñez is hitting just .180/.234/.230. Among 244 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, only four have been less productive offensively by measure of wRC+. Woodward also expressed faith in Ibáñez’s ability to turn things around, but he’ll no doubt need to start performing better if he’s to hang onto his near-regular role.

Rangers Expected To Explore Matt Olson Deal Post-Lockout

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Whenever the lockout ends, transactions — both on the trade and free agent fronts — figure to pile up in a hurry. Among the likelier names to change hands is star Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, who has been the subject of rumors for several months. That’s only natural after A’s GM David Forst plainly acknowledged that the team has reached a point in its “cycle” where they’ll need to be open to moving established players (though the writing had already been on the wall for some time before that).

The Yankees have been frequently reported as an interested suitor for Olson, and prior to the lockout, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote that the Rangers had “already begun investigating” what an Olson acquisition might cost them. Whatever exactly occurred in those pre-lockout talks seemingly wasn’t a huge deterrent, as Grant writes this week that Texas will “absolutely” circle back with the A’s to see if there’s a potential fit.

Perhaps of greater intrigue to fans, however, is that Grant suggests an Olson package would require, at minimum, current big league first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, plus of the organization’s top prospects and a pair of other mid-tier names from down on the farm. As one might expect, it’s a rather broad and subjective set of parameters. Josh Jung and Justin Foscue are both “top prospects” for the Rangers, for instance, but Jung’s value is considerably higher at the moment. It’s hard to see the Rangers parting with Jung, who’s expected to debut in 2022, or either of the top pitching prospects in the system (2021 No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter and 2018 first-rounder Cole Winn).

Regardless of specific permutations on the prospect side of things, a package headlined by Lowe and two or even three intriguing farmhands would figure to be appealing to A’s brass. Lowe, 26, isn’t on the same level as Olson offensively or defensively, but he’s been an above-average hitter in the big leagues and is controlled another five seasons. He’ll likely be a Super Two player (assuming Super Two designation remains unchanged in current labor talks), thus putting him on a path to arbitration eligibility next offseason. Lowe’s first two or even three arbitration salaries should be relatively affordable, however.

Texas acquired Lowe in a Dec. 2020 trade that sent four prospects to the Rays, and he responded with a solid first year at the plate in his new environs. Through 642 plate appearances, Lowe slashed .264/.357/.415 with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, eight stolen bases (in eight attempts) and a hearty 12.5% walk rate. Lowe had fanned in 31.8% of his first 245 trips to the plate in Tampa Bay, but he dropped that number to a more manageable 25.8% in Texas. Defensively, he put up sub-par marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.2) and Outs Above Average (-3). Scouting reports from Lowe’s prospect days pegged him as a solid defender at first base, however, so there’s likely some room for improvement.

Notably, Grant adds that if Olson isn’t acquired, first base isn’t likely to be a priority for the Rangers. A pursuit of Olson, then, seemingly isn’t about being dissatisfied with the work Lowe has put in, but rather about jumping at the opportunity to grab an elite player with multiple years of club control remaining.

While there’s no guarantee Olson is ultimately moved, it’s an interesting look at a potential framework for a swap. The A’s have, historically speaking, tended to prefer returns that included immediate help for the big league roster when dealing away star players. Lowe would certainly fall under that umbrella, and some immediate production from him could help to soften the blow of losing Olson.

Olson, 28 next month, has emerged as one of the premier first basemen in the game over the past few years, with his 2021 season in particular towering above the rest of the league. In 673 plate appearances, Olson batted .271/.371/.540 (146 wRC+) with 39 home runs, 35 doubles and standout defense at first base. He dramatically reduced his strikeout rate, cutting it from 26.1% (2016-20) all the way to 16.8% — and he did so without sacrificing any of his plate discipline. To the contrary, Olson’s walk rate jumped from 10.8% in 2016-20 to 13.1% this past season.

Trading a player of this caliber is a tough pill for the A’s to swallow but also, as Forst alluded to, a familiar process in the Oakland front office. Olson is due his second arbitration raise once the lockout ends, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that he’ll jump from $5MM to $12MM for the 2022 season. Add in a third and final arbitration raise in 2023, and Olson figures to cost upwards of $30MM over the next two seasons combined.

That’s a bargain rate for most clubs, but for a perennially low-payroll A’s team that has seen its best players reach the late stages of arbitration simultaneously, it’s a problematic scenario. Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas are projected to combine for $45.7MM alone; the A’s payroll is set to rise to its second- or third-highest mark ever in 2022 before the team even makes a single addition.

Trading Olson within the division may not be preferable for the A’s, but longtime baseball ops boss Billy Beane and Forst have never shied away from intra-division swaps. Texas and Oakland lined up on a deal just last offseason, swapping out Elvis Andrus and Khris Davis in a financially-motivated arrangement. A year prior, Texas and Oakland matched up in a Mike Minor swap, and the two teams also struck an accord in the 2019-20 offseason when Jurickson Profar went from Texas to Oakland as part of a three-team trade. Suffice it to say, Beane and Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels are comfortable trading within the division, although moving a star of Olson’s caliber perhaps changes that calculus a bit.

If the Rangers were to ultimately pry Olson loose from their divisional foe, one would have to imagine they’d take a run at signing him to a long-term extension. They still have a ways to go before stepping back into the AL West running and aren’t yet expected to contend in 2022, so losing any trade acquisition after just two seasons could be deemed counterproductive. That’s putting the cart well before the horse, however, as Texas will face competition from several other clubs in trying to put together the best offer for Olson. Beyond the Yankees, Olson has been reported as a target for the Braves, should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere. Others yet will view the situation similarly to the Rangers, feeling that while first base isn’t a dire need, Olson himself is so appealing that he’s worth moving some other pieces around to fit into the puzzle.

Rays Expected To Activate Austin Meadows On Friday; Nate Lowe Demoted

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Outfielder Austin Meadows is expected to be activated from the 10-day IL prior to the Rays’ game with the Yankees on Friday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Meadows will take the 25-man roster spot left open by Nate Lowe, as the Rays sent the highly-touted youngster down to Triple-A following yesterday’s game.

Meadows hit the injured list on April 21 due to a sprained right thumb, so his return will fall just short of the projected timeline of “a few weeks” mentioned by Rays general manager Erik Neander a day after the IL placement.  It’s good news for the Rays, since Meadows’ hot start was a huge reason for Tampa’s early-season success.  Meadows was hitting .351/.422/.676 with six homers over 83 plate appearances at the time of his injury, and while some regression is inevitable (.400 BABIP, .454 wOBA compared to a .408 xwOBA), it certainly isn’t out of the question that a former top prospect like Meadows could be a big contributors in his first full Major League season.

With Meadows back, Lowe’s first taste of big league action will come to an end after nine games and a .257/.289/.314 slash line over 38 PA.  It was perhaps a little surprising to see Tampa promote Lowe so soon, though the 23-year-old had been ripping up Triple-A pitching and the Rays had a need for another bat with both Meadows and Joey Wendle on the IL.  Rather than keep Lowe in the majors as a bench player, the club will instead send him back to Triple-A where he can everyday at-bats and continue his development.

In terms of service time, Lowe’s clock stopped almost as soon as it started, so it’s hard to yet determine the impact on his future team control.  While it stands to reason Lowe will be back in the majors at some point in 2019, the Rays already control him through at least the 2025 season, and the team might not bring him back until they can ensure that he won’t be a Super Two candidate.  (Of course, this could all be moot if Lowe becomes the latest Rays prospect to sign an early-career extension, a la Brandon Lowe, Matt Moore, or Evan Longoria.)

Lowe has played only first base and DH in his young career, making him an imperfect fit at this point on a Rays roster that values multi-positional versatility.  Lowe’s first base duties will again likely be split between Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz, though Diaz has seen an increasingly amount of time at third base in recent days due to Daniel Robertson’s struggles.  Brandon Lowe could also see some time at first base, with Robertson or Andrew Velazquez filling in at second, so the Rays are hardly short on potential lineup options.

Rays Promote Nate Lowe

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11:34am: The Rays have announced the promotion, though they’ve yet to reveal the corresponding roster moves. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter) that Christian Arroyo will be optioned to Durham, thus opening a 25-man spot, but there’s still the matter of a 40-man move to be addressed.

11:20am: The Rays are set to promote top first base prospect Nate Lowe to the big leagues, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Lowe, who ranks as the game’s No. 90 overall prospect at Baseball America and the No. 3 first base prospect in the game per MLB.com, is not on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster. A corresponding 40-man move will be necessary.

Nate Lowe | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

While he’s not related to recently extended second baseman Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe is viewed by the Rays as a similarly vital young piece of the club. The 23-year-old is off to a terrific start with Triple-A Durham, where he has slashed .300/.444/.543 with three homers, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19) through 90 plate appearances.

MLB.com’s scouting report on Lowe lauds his plus-plus raw power — a trait he was finally able to tap into in game settings a season ago when he raked at a .330/.416/.568 clip across three minor league levels (topping out at Durham). In 2018, Lowe slugged 27 homers, 32 doubles and a triple with a 12.3 percent walk rate against just a 16.2 percent strikeout rate. He’s a below-average runner and limited to first base on the defensive spectrum, but last year’s .313/.395/.484 slash against lefties and .338/.425/.608 slash against righties suggests that he has the potential to be a true everyday option for the Rays at first base and/or designated hitter (as opposed to a platoon slugger).

It’s unlikely that the Rays would call up Lowe if they didn’t feel they had everyday at-bats available to the former 13th-round pick. But, with Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz both performing quite well at first base and designated hitter, neither would appears to be in jeopardy of losing any playing time (barring a yet-unrevealed injury, of course). It’s possible, though, that Diaz could slide across the diamond to third base in place of the struggling Daniel Robertson, opening at-bats at first and DH to be shared among Lowe, Choi and others.

The maximum amount of service time that Lowe would be able to accrue this season is now 155 days, meaning he’ll fall shy of the requisite 172 days to notch a full season. Because of that, he’ll be controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign if he’s in the big leagues for good, and he’s also in line to be a surefire Super Two player after the 2021 season. That said, it’s still possible that he’ll be optioned back to the minors at some point and alter those trajectories.

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