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Pitching Notes: Cardinals, Eovaldi, Rodón

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Currently boasting a staff of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals were not predicted to be heavily involved in the free-agent starting pitcher market this offseason. Nevertheless, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is aware that, “a year from now, we know we’re going to need starting pitching,” per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak added that the team has recognized that they will have to replace or re-sign four starters after the 2023 season.

Wainwright, who re-signed with St. Louis on a one-year, $17.5MM deal with incentives, has already stated that the 2023 season will be his last. Additionally, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery will all be free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Matz and Hudson are the only starters with a contract for the 2024 season, with Matz signed through the 2025 season and Hudson a free agent after 2024. Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to explore contract extensions with at least two of the starters who are unsigned beyond 2023,” with Mikolas being the most likely candidate.

The Cardinals are currently projected to enter the 2023 season with a payroll of $171.9MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, after the season, they are forecasted by Roster Resource to have only $94MM in commitments — giving them ample room to add to their team. Despite this financial freedom, Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “have some young starters coming,” perhaps signaling a desire to avoid free agent starters in order to fit within the team’s budget.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (the Cardinals’ No.4 Prospect) struggled in his Major League debut during the 2022 season, pitching to a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with a 17.4 SO% and 11.2 BB%. He didn’t fare much better in his second season at Triple-A Memphis, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 115 innings with a 23.5 SO% and 8.3 BB%. Nevertheless, Liberatore is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to settle in at the Major League level. Additionally, Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals’ No.3 Prospect), Tink Hence (No.6), and Michael McGreevy (No.9) all are expected to make their debuts during the 2024 season, with Graceffo and McGreevy earning promotions to Double-A Springfield during the 2022 season, while Hence spent the entire season with Single-A Palm Beach.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox do not view former All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as a top priority in their starting rotation search. Bradford adds that other teams are showing more interest in Eovaldi than the level currently displayed by Boston. The Mets were previously rumored to be in on Eovaldi, but their recent five-year, $75MM deal with Kodai Senga likely takes them out of the running for the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Eovaldi joined Boston during the 2018 season, with the righty helping them win the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox rewarded the starter with a four-year, $68MM contract that resulted in 407 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA baseball, with a solid 24.4 SO% and strong 5.6 BB%. Despite being limited to 20 starts in 2022 due to low back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings with a 22.4 SO% and 4.4 BB%.
  • In other St. Louis news, the Cardinals have reportedly entered the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. With Rodon seeking a seven-year deal and St. Louis having only two starters signed for the 2023 season, the Cards might look to join the bidding war for the two-time All-Star’s services. Rodon, 30, signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants during the 2021 offseason, with an opt-out after the first year. Brushing aside injury concerns and making a career-high 31 starts, the southpaw pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings, with an absurd 33.4 SO% and strong 7.3 BB% before opting out of the contract at the end of the season. For his part, Mozeliak has remained coy, stating that while the team does “have some resources available,” but that he wouldn’t “believe many of the rumors you’re reading right now,” per Derrick Goold.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Chaim Bloom On Bogaerts, Pitching, Offseason Additions

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9:34PM: Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe has some updates on the pitching search, citing right-hander Tommy Kahnle as a target for the Red Sox bullpen.  The Sox haven’t made much progress in recent talks with Eovaldi, and while the Red Sox are known to have interest in Kodai Senga, the Japanese star hasn’t yet visited Boston while making the rounds to visit other teams.

On the hitting front, Abreu was offered a three-year deal “in the low- to mid-$40MM range,” well below the three years and $59.5MM Abreu received from Houston.

6:47PM: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke with the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter thread) and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, outlining his team’s extensive plans for the rest of the offseason.  Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez represent Boston’s most notable additions thus far, and Bloom said the Sox could yet add at least two more relievers to augment the bullpen.

All in all, Bloom said the team wanted to add “seven, eight, nine” players to “build the team we want to have.”  This list includes three or four position players, as well as at least one starting pitcher who can bring “upside, leadership, and consistency” to the rotation, as well as innings.

On paper, it looks like the Red Sox are aiming for a repeat of their first three offseasons under Bloom’s leadership, which saw the club made a wide array of moves big and small to shuffle up the roster.  This semi-overhaul added both everyday players and more complementary parts to the roster, with a general focus in acquiring controllable players and veterans on shorter-term contracts — with the major exception of Trevor Story, and his six-year, $140MM pact from last March.

Bloom’s tactics have drawn a mixed reaction at best from Red Sox Nation, as the team’s last three seasons have consisted of one trip to the ALCS (in 2021) and two last-place finishes (2020 and 2022) in the AL East.  Several of Bloom’s less-heralded moves have panned out, but several have also not borne fruit, and Boston’s relative lack of spending on big-ticket players has also drawn criticism given the team’s traditional large-market ways.  The Red Sox have remained at least a top-10 payroll team over Bloom’s three seasons and even exceeded the luxury tax line last year, though many of the team’s biggest expenditures were signed before Bloom joined the organization.

The Red Sox have quite a bit of money coming off the books this winter, of course, with Xander Bogaerts being the club’s most prominent free agent.  Reports from the weekend indicated that the Sox weren’t one of the primary members of Bogaerts’ market, and that the Red Sox had yet to make “a competitive offer” to the shortstop.

Bloom pushed back against that speculation today, saying “have certainly made offers to him, we’ve been engaged, and we’ll stay engaged.”  Bogaerts is still a chief priority for the Red Sox, though Bloom expected the shortstop to check out all of his options in his first trip to free agency.

Re-signing Bogaerts and solidifying the shortstop position for years to come would naturally have a big impacton Boston’s plans to remake its position-player mix.  Bloom noted that Story or Enrique Hernandez could potentially take over at shortstop if Bogaerts departed, but if he stayed, Story would likely remain at second base and Hernandez could bounce around the diamond, perhaps primarily staying in center field.

Story and Hernandez figure to play everyday roles somewhere, and Rafael Devers has third base covered and Alex Verdugo will get regular work at one or both of the corner outfield spots.  However, there’s quite of bit of flux elsewhere around the diamond and quite a bit more opportunity to add new faces, depending on how much playing time the Red Sox want to give to such younger players as Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, or Jeter Downs.  For instance, the Sox technically have plenty of first base/DH candidates in Casas, Bobby Dalbec, and Eric Hosmer, but the team still made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu decided to join the Astros.

Pursuing Abreu would seem to indicate a greater willingness to spend on the front office’s part.  A very big contract will obviously be necessary to re-sign Bogaerts, and bringing Nathan Eovaldi back will likely also require a healthy multi-year commitment.  Bloom said that incumbent free agents Eovaldi and Michael Wacha were both still possibilities as the team explores the pitching market.

Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest

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The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.

Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.

Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.

However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.

As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.

Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

Red Sox Offer Nathan Eovaldi A Multi-Year Contract

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The Red Sox have reportedly offered All-Star starter Nathan Eovaldi a multi-year contract, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, Bradford notes that a deal between the two parties is not imminent. News of talks between Boston and Eovaldi comes only a few days after the Red Sox issued the righty a qualifying offer (one-year, $19.65MM) that tied draft compensation to the veteran if he signs with a different team.

After making a career-high 32 starts (182 1/3 innings) in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with lower back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, the latter of which limited him to only seven starts in the second half of the season. When healthy, Eovaldi pitched to a strong 3.87 ERA, striking out 22.4% of batters while limiting walks (4.4%). The 22.4% strikeout rate represented a drop from his 2020 (26.1%) and 2021 (25.5%) rates but was accompanied by an increase in his ground ball rate, 47.3% compared to 42.1% in 2021.

Eovaldi had originally joined the Red Sox in 2018, being flipped in late July by the Rays for Jalen Beeks. He quickly earned his worth, helping the franchise win the 2018 World Series before re-signing with Boston on a four-year, $68MM deal that offseason. Over the course of that contract, Eovaldi made 53 starts, pitching 281 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA baseball with strong strikeout (24.4%) and walk (5.6%) rates.

As seen in our 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agent With Predictions list, MLBTR expected Eovaldi to receive a shorter deal (2-year, $34MM) after missing part of the season with injuries.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Red Sox Activate Nathan Eovaldi; Trevor Story Unlikely To Return This Season

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The Red Sox announced Thursday that righty Nathan Eovaldi has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Connor Seabold has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester in his place. Additionally, it now appears unlikely that Trevor Story will return to the Sox in 2022. Story, currently shelved with a heel injury, had been hoping to return for the final series of the season but has fallen ill (on top of that injury) and is now “very unlikely” to get back to the active roster in 2022, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets.

Eovaldi’s return is an important one not necessarily for the Red Sox, who’ve long since been eliminated from postseason contention, but for the pitcher himself. The 32-year-old Eovaldi is wrapping up the final season of a four-year, $68MM contract and is slated to become a free agent at season’s end. He’s been out more than a month due to a shoulder injury, so returning today gives him the opportunity to demonstrate his health over two more starts before the end of the year. That’ll also give the Sox a bit more information as they weigh a potential qualifying offer for Eovaldi.

It’s been something of an up-and-down year for Eovaldi, who was terrific through mid-June before landing on the injured list due to a back injury. That issue also cost Eovaldi a month, and he briefly experienced a velocity dip and poor results upon his activation. He got back on track for three starts, beginning Aug. 1, but then hit the shelf with this most recent shoulder ailment.

Even with the slight dip in performance in July, Eovaldi’s overall numbers are sound. He’s logged a 4.15 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.3% walk rate in 99 2/3 innings this season — a continuation of the strong results he enjoyed with Boston from 2020-21. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Eovaldi carries a collective 3.87 ERA in 330 1/3 frames. He’s fanned nearly one quarter of his opponents in that time and his 4.3% walk rate trails only Clayton Kershaw for the MLB lead in that span (min. 200 innings pitched).

A healthy Eovaldi is an easy call to receive a qualifying offer, so it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on his performance over the next two outings. Cotillo noted that he’ll be capped around 65 pitches today, so it’s unlikely he’ll go deep into the game, but there will still be plenty to be gleaned from even a four- or five-inning outing. It also stands to reason that Eovaldi could push a bit further in what would be his final start of the season next week.

As for Story, this latest injury and illness will apparently close the book on what was a discouraging first season in Boston. Signed over the winter to a six-year, $140MM contract, Story stumbled out of the gates, and while he had a pair of torrid hot streaks (from mid-May into early June and from August into September), those were surrounded by prolonged cold spells at the plate. In the end, his 2022 campaign will end with a .238/.304/.434 slash, 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 396 plate appearances.

Defensively Story posted impressive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (six) and Outs Above Average (ten) despite appearing in only 813 innings on the field. The move to second base suited him quite well, but his future position remains to be determined. Xander Bogaerts will opt out of his contract at season’s end and reject a qualifying offer, but the Sox will surely have interest in re-signing him. If Bogaerts heads elsewhere, Story is certainly capable of sliding back over to shortstop — a position at which he starred in Colorado for the first six seasons of his career. Alternatively, the Sox could seek shortstop alternatives and keep Story at second base, where he’s played Gold Glove-caliber defense in 2022.

Story is still owed $120MM over the next five years, although his contract allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. The team can negate that opt-out by instead preemptively exercising a $25MM club option on the 2028 season for Story, which would push his total contract to seven years and $160MM.

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