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2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Rangers Place Evan Carter On Injured List; Reinstate Wyatt Langford, Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rangers have reinstated outfielder Wyatt Langford and right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the injured list, with Eovaldi starting tonight’s contest. In corresponding moves, outfielder Evan Carter lands on the 10-day IL due to back tightness while righty Yerry Rodríguez has been optioned out. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to relay the news prior to the official announcement on X (link one and two).

Carter’s back has been bugging him for a few weeks. Between May 8 and May 18, he only took two plate appearances for the Rangers. He’s been in the lineup more regularly of late but still hasn’t had a hit in about three weeks. It seems like the back problems have contributed to his lackluster results on the year. He was hitting .236/.328/.472 through May 4 but has a batting line of just .053/.100/.053 since then.

Coming into the season, it was possible to envision Texas having two regular players battling each other for the Rookie of the Year crown, but it hasn’t played out that way thus far. Carter’s recent slide has dropped his season-long batting line to .188/.272/361. Langford, meanwhile, hit just .224/.295/.293 through 129 plate appearances before landing on the IL due to a right hamstring strain. Langford will now get a chance to improve his numbers while Carter takes some time to rest up and get healthy for later in the season.

Injuries have also been a key storyline for the Texas rotation all year long. They knew long ago that Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle would be on the IL for the first half, as each of them underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season. Then Max Scherzer required back surgery in the offseason. There was a time when it seemed like he could come back in mid-May but he has been delayed by thumb soreness and his timeline is still up in the air.

Since the season started, the Rangers have also seen Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Michael Lorenzen and Cody Bradford miss time on the injured list. All that has left Andrew Heaney as the only consistent member of the rotation this year.

Some of those IL stints have now ended, including Eovaldi’s today, so the rotation currently consists of him, Heaney, Dunning, Lorenzen and José Ureña. The club used Gerson Garabito for a spot start on Sunday and it seemed he could stick around for now as a long reliever.

The various injuries up and down the roster have seemingly prevented the defending champions from charging out of the gate this year, as they are currently 25-29 on the season. But the American League West is surprisingly weak so far this year, as the Astros are also struggling. The Rangers are second to the Mariners, just 3.5 games back and still very much in it.

Getting Eovaldi back on the mound is obviously helpful, as he had a 2.61 ERA prior to hitting the IL with a groin strain and had a 3.63 ERA for the Rangers last year. Langford could slot into the designated hitter role that Adolis García has been in recently, pushing García back to the outfield next to Leody Taveras and a rotation of Ezequiel Durán, Robbie Grossman and Derek Hill, with Carter hopefully jumping back into that mix once he’s healthy.

Rangers Place Nathan Eovaldi On Injured List

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The Rangers announced today that right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right groin strain. Fellow righty Yerry Rodríguez was recalled in a corresponding move.

Eovaldi, 34, started yesterday’s game but departed the game with groin tightness. He seemed unconcerned with the issue after the game, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, though the club scheduled him for an MRI. It seems that a strain was found, though the current severity isn’t publicly known.

Regardless of how long Eovaldi is out, his absence will be a challenge for a Rangers club with plenty of rotation injuries. The club has long known that Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle would be out for significant portions of this year, as each underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Max Scherzer then required back surgery in the winter, which meant he was going to start the season on the IL as well. Since the season has started, Cody Bradford has landed on the shelf due to a stress fracture in his rib and now Eovaldi is following that group to the IL.

Subtracting Eovaldi will naturally hurt, as he has a 2.61 earned run average on the year. His absence will be doubly challenging for the club at this time since they are currently in a stretch of playing ten games in nine days, thanks to a scheduled doubleheader in Oakland this coming Wednesday.

For now, they can have Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning, Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney start the next four contests. But they will need another starter to take Eovaldi’s spot in the rotation by Tuesday and then someone else for the twin bill the day after.

José Ureña is on the big league roster and has been throwing multi-inning stints out of the bullpen. He could be an option for a start or working as a bulk pitcher as part of a bullpen game. Jack Leiter and Owen White are each on the 40-man roster, though neither had good results in their previous call-ups this year. Scherzer had begun a rehab assignment but has been slowed by some thumb soreness and his timeline is unclear at the moment. Johnny Cueto recently signed a minor league deal but hasn’t yet appeared in official game action. Adrian Sampson and Shaun Anderson are stretched out at Triple-A but neither is on the 40-man roster at the moment.

AL Notes: Garver, Eovaldi, Red Sox, Kirilloff

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Rangers fans received news today regarding catcher and DH Mitch Garver, who was hit in the rib cage by a pitch from Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu during the sixth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday. Garver was removed for a pinch-hitter prior to what would have been his next trip to the plate in the eighth inning. Fortunately, however, the Rangers indicated yesterday that an MRI showed Garver’s rib cage had sustained no fractures. Of course, as noted by The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, it’s still possible that the incident could impact Garver during the World Series against the Diamondbacks even as he avoided serious injury.

Garver’s had a solid 2023 with the bat for Texas, though his injury history and lack of time behind the plate in 2023 make for an unusual platform season ahead of his first foray into free agency this November. After slashing .270/.370/.500 in 344 trips to the plate during the regular season, Garver has hit even better for the club in the postseason with a .294/.368/.529 line across 38 plate appearances, with two home runs, two doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 15.8%. If the Rangers don’t feel the need to afford him extra rest after his injury scare, Garver figures to factor into the club’s lineup regularly after drawing starts at DH during every game of the ALCS.

More from around the American League…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
  • The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.

Rangers Rotation Could Be A Strength In ALCS

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Over the 2022-23 offseason, the Rangers concentrated their attention and resources on the rotation. They signed Jacob deGrom, the biggest name on the market, and Nathan Eovaldi, a World Series champion and postseason hero. They re-signed Martin Perez, an 11-year veteran and a 2022 All-Star. They took a chance on the injury-prone Andrew Heaney, who flashed dominant strikeout stuff over the second half of the season.

Suffice it to say, very little went according to plan. deGrom went down at the end of April. Eovaldi looked like a Cy Young contender through the All-Star break, but a forearm strain ruined the second half of his season. Perez, meanwhile, struggled so badly through the first four months that he wound up in the bullpen after the trade deadline. Heaney was a similar case; he lasted longer in the rotation but never quite found his groove, and he landed in the bullpen in September. Jon Gray, who signed with Texas a year prior, was reliable for much of the season but suffered a forearm strain of his own in late September.

That’s a whole lot of misfortune for a team that still finished fifth in the AL in rotation ERA and FanGraphs WAR, not to mention a team that made the playoffs and swept its way to the ALCS. While the pre-season plan didn’t exactly work out, the Rangers made the best of some tough breaks with depth and aggressive trades at the deadline. Now, as they prepare to take on the Astros, the rotation could be as strong as it’s been since April.

Eovaldi has put his rough September far behind him with two phenomenal postseason starts. Across 13 2/3 innings, he has given up just two runs while striking out 15 and walking none. The righty is harkening back to his performance with the 2018 Red Sox, but even then, he was never quite as effective as he’s been over his last two outings.

Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been superb, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in August and September and a 3.27 ERA in the playoffs. While he has had a few rough starts, including his performance against the Orioles on Sunday, he has looked dominant more often than not, such as in his gem against the Rays last Tuesday.

Those two will lead the way in the ALCS, and with several off days between their victory last night and Game 1 on Sunday, the Rangers can set up their rotation however they’d like. That means Montgomery in Game 1, Eovaldi in Game 2, and no need to piggyback Heaney and Dane Dunning to open the series. In fact, Texas might not need to piggyback Heaney and Dunning at all.

Max Scherzer, another deadline addition for Texas, is approaching a preternatural return from a teres major strain. He seemed like a long shot for the playoffs until relatively recently, but he has been ramping up his throwing program in October, and now it looks like he could make the ALCS roster. As Evan Grant reported for The Dallas Morning News, the three-time Cy Young winner threw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he feels good about his chances to pitch against the Astros.

Grant had a similarly positive update about Gray, who plans to ramp up his rehab this week. He is not as far along as Scherzer, but he also didn’t miss as much time. If he gets back on a mound in the coming days, he, too, could be ready for the ALCS.

Neither Scherzer nor Gray is likely to pitch deep into a game. It’s a good thing, then, that manager Bruce Bochy has several converted starters in his bullpen. Not all of them will make the roster if Scherzer and Gray both return, but even so, the Rangers have plenty of options to pitch the middle innings. A rotation of Montgomery, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray (with Heaney, Dunning, and Perez providing depth) should give Texas a chance to win every time out.

The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers this year. At the best of times, it has been just that, but more often than not, it’s been a large, looming question mark instead. The questions will remain until Scherzer and Gray actually take the ball, but all the same, this rotation is in a better place than it has been for quite some time.

Rangers Select Ian Kennedy, Designate Glenn Otto For Assignment

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The Rangers announced a series of roster moves today, activating right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the injured list and selecting the contract of fellow righty Ian Kennedy. In corresponding moves, righty Josh Sborz was placed on the 15-day IL with a left hamstring strain while righty Glenn Otto was designated for assignment.

Kennedy, 38, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers and cracked the Opening Day roster. But he was lit up in the early going, allowing a 7.20 earned run average through 11 outings before being designated for assignment. He cleared waivers and elected free agency but rejoined the Rangers on a new minor league pact. Since that time, he’s been posting fairly solid results in Triple-A, with a 3.51 ERA in 25 2/3 innings, along with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate.

After many years as an effective big league starter, Kennedy moved to the bullpen in recent years with inconsistent results. He had a 3.41 ERA in 2019 but saw that jump to an even 9.00 in 2020. He got back on track with a 3.20 mark in 2021 but it nudged up to 5.36 last year before this year’s aforementioned struggles.

The Rangers bullpen has been a nightmare of late, a key reason why their previously strong division lead has gone up in smoke. The relievers have let many recent games slip away in the late innings, pushing the club to third place in the division and just half a game ahead of the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. For the season as a whole, the relief corps has a collective 4.86 ERA that places them 25th in the league. They will mix things up by getting the veteran Kennedy into the mix to see if he can help.

Otto, 27, got a shot at a rotation job with the Rangers last year, making 27 starts with a 4.64 ERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate. The Rangers then underwent an extremely aggressive offseason, overhauling their rotation by acquiring pitchers like Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Jake Odorizzi. That would have squeezed Otto either to the minors or the bullpen but he suffered a lat strain in March and was placed on the 60-day injured list on Opening Day.

He was reinstated from the IL at the end of June and has made six appearances for the big league club since then, but six home runs in just 10 2/3 innings have led to an ERA of 10.13. He’s also tossed 29 1/3 Triple-A innings over 10 appearances with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 32.5% of opponents in the process.

Since the trade deadline has passed, the Rangers will have no choice but to put Otto on waivers in the coming days. He’s not too far removed from being a notable prospect. In 2021, he registered a 3.20 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the minor leagues, going from the Yankees to the Rangers in the Joey Gallo trade that summer. He went into 2022 ranked as the #15 prospect in the Rangers system.

Though he then had some tepid results that year and has been injured for much of this year, he could perhaps garner interest based on that previous prospect status. He still has two option seasons beyond this one and has yet to qualify for arbitration. That means he could be an intriguing depth arm for any club willing to give him a roster spot.

West Notes: Eovaldi, Ohtani, Giants, Silseth

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Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has been on the injured list for over a month thanks to a forearm strain, has recently been expected to rejoin the Texas rotation during their upcoming series against the Mets, which begins tomorrow. As noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, however, that won’t come to fruition after Eovaldi felt some discomfort in his side during a bullpen session on Thursday. The new plan is for Eovaldi to partake in another bullpen session on Tuesday before the club determines whether he’ll need a rehab assignment or can directly return to the club’s pitching staff.

Eovaldi’s continued absence is a serious blow to the Rangers, as the right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.69 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 123 2/3 innings of work this season. By measure of ERA+, he’s been 61% better than league average when on the field this season. That sort of production is difficult to replace, and while deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have done an admirable job with a combined 2.22 ERA across nine starts since joining the organization, the club has nonetheless posted a record of just 17-17 since Eovaldi went on the shelf, a mediocre performance that’s allowed the surging Mariners to catch them in the standings.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While plenty of suitors for superstar Shohei Ohtani may have a renewed sense of caution regarding his impending free agency after it was announced that the two-way phenom is dealing with a UCL tear that will prevent him from taking the mound again this season, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that the Giants are not among those teams and will still aggressively pursue Ohtani. Shea asserts that the Giants have the financial muscle required to get a deal done, referencing big-money offers to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason that ultimately didn’t reach the finish line, while also suggesting the the club’s tendency to be cautious regarding pitcher healthy could be attractive for Ohtani as he looks to work his way back onto the major league mound.
  • Angels right-hander Chase Silseth exited last night’s game against the Mets following a scary moment where he was struck in the head by an errant throw from teammate Trey Cabbage. After initially falling to the ground after being struck, Silseth was helped off the field by team trainers. Fortunately, the worst appears to have been avoided, as ESPN notes that manager Phil Nevin told reporters that he “think(s) we avoided something serious, but with head injuries you always want to be cautious.” Silseth owns a 4.10 ERA (111 ERA+) in 48 1/3 innings of work while swinging between the rotation and bullpen for the Angels this season.

Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen

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The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”

Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.

For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.

With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.

Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.

It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.

Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.

Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton

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The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington.  The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby.  In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals.  To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.

With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season.  Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.

As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation.  Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show.  Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.

It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action.  Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.

Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff.  Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option.  On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.

Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader.  In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30.  The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%).  While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.

If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results.  Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.

Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year.  Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.

Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August.  Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective.  Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.

The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special.  However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM).  It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.  The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.

Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020.  A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.

The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign.  The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.

That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system.  MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.

Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season.  While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable.  The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid.  Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.

Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder.  Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop.  He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.

The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023.  The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Acquire Max Scherzer From Mets

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The Rangers and Mets have agreed to a trade that will see the star right-hander Max Scherzer head to Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña heading the other way. The Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM of the remaining money owed to Scherzer, who will waive his no-trade clause. He will also trigger his player option for 2024, forgoing his opt-out opportunity.

The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM deal going into the 2022 season, as part of a high-spending strategy aimed at contention. The first year generally went well, as the Mets won 101 games with Scherzer contributing 23 starts of 2.29 ERA ball. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful, however, as the Mets have slumped to 49-54 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. It seems they have accepted the fact that they have to do some selling, having already flipped David Robertson to the Marlins.

That’s also come with diminished results from Scherzer, who has posted an ERA of 4.01 this year, working around a 10-game sticky stuff suspension earlier in the season. His strikeouts have dipped this season, with his 27.3% rate representing his lowest since 2011.

With the Mets struggling, it’s led to speculation about how they would react. Impending free agents like Robertson, Tommy Pham and others seemed like natural trade candidates, but Scherzer’s situation was more complicated. As mentioned, he had a full no-trade clause and would need to agree to any deal. It was reported in June that he was willing to waive that clause under certain circumstances, though without concrete information about what it would take for him to do so.

Further complicating matters was Scherzer’s ability to opt out of the final year of his deal, leaving $43.33MM on the table. Some sources describe this as a player option, though the situation is the same either way, with Scherzer getting to decide whether to become a free agent or not. He spoke about his situation earlier this week, saying that he’s “not going to be a free agent” and “can see a path to contend next year” with the Mets. Though he also said he would speak with the front office about the club’s direction.

He’s still owed just under $15MM for the remainder of this season, on top of the $43.33MM for next year, a total just north of $58MM. Whatever return the Rangers were willing to send to the Mets might have taken a different shape if they were to view Scherzer as a rental or a pickup for a year and a half with a massive salary. They reportedly wanted Scherzer to lock in that 2024 season, which he has now apparently done.

Since the Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM, that means they’re eating more than $35MM in this deal. The Mets have shown a tendency to eat money in trades in order to maximize returns, such as sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and James McCann to the Orioles, and have done so here.

The Rangers have been clearly looking for starting pitching recently, having been connected to Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Scherzer. They have had a couple of rotation setbacks this year, most notably the loss of Jacob deGrom. He was signed to a five-year, $185MM guarantee in the offseason but required Tommy John surgery in June, putting him out for the remainder of this year and some of 2024 as well. They also lost Jake Odorizzi to a season-ending shoulder surgery.

The club has operated for most of the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, with Dane Dunning stepping in for deGrom. The results from that group have been varied, with Eovaldi’s 2.69 ERA the lowest and Pérez the highest at 4.91. Dunning is at 3.28 but with a 15.5% strikeout rate that’s well below league average. Since his .269 batting average on balls in play and 77.5% strand rate are on the lucky side, his 4.26 FIP and 4.88 SIERA suggest he’s skirted around some runs. He’s the only member of the rotation with options and could perhaps wind up in the minors as depth, though he’s also worked out of the bullpen before. Additionally, Eovaldi is dealing with some elbow soreness, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. He’s not going on the IL yet but his scheduled start is being pushed back. Although Scherzer’s not having his best season, he would still be an upgrade for that group. By sticking around for 2024, he will also help them cover for Pérez becoming a free agent, with deGrom potentially returning later in the year.

The Rangers are currently 60-44 and hold a two-game lead over the Astros in the American League West, with the third-place Angels aggressively pursuing upgrades as well. The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, which was also the last time they finished above .500. They’ve shown a willingness to be very aggressive in recent years as they look to get out of that spiral, giving out huge deals to players like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, as well as the aforementioned starting pitchers. They’ve already bolstered their bullpen by acquiring Aroldis Chapman and now have made a massive move for their rotation.

It was reported this week that the club would be open to surpassing the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax for Verlander, though it remains to be seen if they will do the same for Scherzer. Roster Resource currently lists their CBT figure at $224MM, or $9MM below the line. Assuming the $22.5MM they are paying Scherzer is evenly distributed between now and the end of next year, they’ll be adding just under $6MM to that. That will leave them shy of the line for now but further moves could tip the scales.

In order to obtain Scherzer’s services, the club has parted with Acuña. The 21-year-old shortstop is the younger brother of Atlanta’s superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, he has climbed through the minor league ranks to reach Double-A. In 84 games at that level this year, he’s hitting .315/.377/.453 for a wRC+ of 121 while stealing 42 bases. Baseball America currently lists him at the #87 prospect in the league while FanGraphs has him at #56. BA suspects he’ll have to move to second base eventually but that he could be a solid regular there.

As for the Mets, this could perhaps give some hint as to how far they are willing to go in trading from this year’s roster in order to acquire help for future seasons. They’ve already traded Robertson and could shop other impending free agents like Pham and Carlos Carrasco. Mark Canha and Brooks Raley could also make sense, though they are pure rentals since the club has options for 2024. Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino have player options for 2024. José Quintana’s contract runs through 2024 and he has received some trade interest.

The bigger fish, though, is Verlander. He just signed a two-year deal in the offseason that pays him $43.33MM per year, matching Scherzer’s salary, with a conditional $35MM option for 2025 as well. Like Scherzer, he also has a full no-trade clause and said just a few days ago that the club hadn’t yet approached him about waiving it. But it was later reported that the club would only approach the players about their clauses after finding workable trade packages, which seems to have been the case in this Scherzer deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Michael Schwab of Juice Box Journal first reported that the Rangers had a deal in place for Scherzer, contingent on him waiving his no-trade clause. Andy Martino of Steve Gelbs of SNY relayed that Scherzer would waive his clause, but that the financial components of the deal weren’t complete. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported on Acuña’s inclusion in the deal, as well as the fact that the Rangers wanted him to forego his opt-out at season’s end and that the deal was done. Martino relayed the financials while Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Scherzer will trigger in his 2024 option, with Heyman adding that he’ll receive some additional amenities for doing so.

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