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Mookie Betts

NL Central Notes: Betts, Brewers, Venable, Tigers, Pirates

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Could Mookie Betts have blossomed to stardom in a Brewers uniform?  It could have been a reality if former Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin had had his way, as he tried to acquire Betts from the Red Sox in 2013 in exchange for closer Francisco Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy.  As a fifth-round pick for Boston in the 2011 draft, “Mookie sort of went under the radar if you went by the so-called MLB Pipeline or whatever.  I don’t think at the time he was in their top 10-15 prospects,” Melvin said.  Both the Brewers’ analytics and scouting departments agreed on Betts’ potential, however, so the pitch was made to then-Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who wisely declined the offer.

Betts was already in the midst of a big season at the A-ball levels in 2013, and Cherington recalls that by season’s end, Betts’ “name was the first one” mentioned by other clubs in trade negotiations.  “Doug Melvin was the first to ask, so I always give Doug credit.  He was the first one to ask for him,” Cherington said.

While Milwaukee fans take a moment to sigh ruefully, let’s look at some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs third base coach Will Venable spoke with the Tigers about their managerial vacancy, NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.  Venable was first cited as a potential candidate for the Tigers job back in September, and Venable has also recently interviewed with the Red Sox about their managerial job.  Beyond the Red Sox and Tigers, “other clubs also have sought the Cubs’ permission to talk with Venable about other, non-managerial openings in their organizations,” Wittenmyer writes.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Venable has spent the last three years in Wrigleyville as a special assistant to Theo Epstein, as well as a first base and third base coach.  This is the second straight winter that Venable has been a popular candidate, as the Cubs considered him for their own manager’s job last offseason, and the Astros and Giants also interviewed him for their managerial openings.
  • The Pirates have 19 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, the most of any team in baseball.  At least some of those names won’t be back in Pittsburgh in 2021, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel thinks as many as six players could be non-tendered and several others are trade candidates.  Interestingly, Biertempfel cites Trevor Williams as a potential non-tender, on the heels of a season that saw Williams get off to a good start but then struggle to finish with a 6.18 ERA over 55 1/3 innings, with a league-high 15 homers allowed.  Williams received some trade interest from at least one team (the Blue Jays) back in August, so it’s possible Toronto or another club could have some talks with the Pirates before the non-tender deadline.  Williams had a pair of solid seasons in 2017-18 and is entering his age-29 season with two years of team control remaining.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM through the arbitration process this winter.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Latest On Mookie Betts

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6:23 pm: Betts’ finger has some swelling, but x-rays fortunately came back negative, manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (Twitter links). He’s day-to-day.

5:41 pm: Mookie Betts was lifted for a pinch hitter in the seventh inning of this afternoon’s game against the Diamondbacks. The club since announced (Twitter link) that he is dealing with soreness in his left middle finger.

There’s no indication there’s particular cause for alarm, but it’s eye-opening whenever a player of Betts’ caliber leaves a game for health reasons. The superstar hasn’t played at quite his typical level to start his Dodger career, but there’s no questioning his importance to the organization both short and long term.

For now, the hope is surely that Betts will return to the field in short order. The Dodgers are in position to exercise all due caution given the strength of their roster. Edwin Ríos replaced Betts in the lineup today, perhaps indicating he’d be first in line for extra playing time should Betts need some time off.

Dodgers Extend Mookie Betts

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7:24pm: Betts’ contract includes a massive $65MM signing bonus, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal adds that the contract contains $115MM in deferrals, and the salaries are backloaded such that Betts will be paid $17.5MM in 2021 and 2022. There are no opt-outs in the deal, which does not come with a no-trade clause, per Rosenthal.

4:01pm: Mookie Betts is a Dodger for the long haul. The team announced this afternoon that Betts has signed a 12-year extension through the 2032 season. It’ll reportedly guarantee him a whopping $365MM in new money on top of this year’s $27MM salary (which has been prorated to $10MM due to the shortened 2020 season). Betts is represented by the VC Sports Group.

Mookie Betts | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The contract represents the largest amount of new money ever promised to a Major League player on an extension or free-agent signing, topping Mike Trout’s previous highwater mark of $360MM (over a shorter 10-year term). Trout was already signed at two years and $66.5MM, so his total of 12 years and $426.5MM tops Betts’ 13-year, $392MM figure, but the $365MM new-money benchmark is a notable record nevertheless.

The Betts extension, somewhat remarkably, marks the first time that the Dodgers have guaranteed in excess of $100MM to a player under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though the team is known for its enormous — at times seemingly limitless — spending capacity, the Friedman regime has worked diligently to shed some prior undesirable commitments and creatively limbo underneath the luxury-tax bar. Doing so paved the way for the Dodgers to issue a historic contract to a premium talent.

After missing out on a free-agent pursuit of Gerrit Cole this winter, the team shifted its focus to acquiring Betts, who came to L.A. alongside David Price in a blockbuster trade that sent Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong to Boston. There was plenty of talk about the team’s hope for extending Betts, but he’d been outspoken about his desire to test the open market. Paired with the economic uncertainty stemming from this year’s unprecedented revenue losses, there was real reason to wonder whether a deal would get done.

Perhaps that economic turmoil made Betts more amenable to taking a deal now rather than testing the market, or perhaps he was simply willing all along to sign if a team exceeded Trout’s new-money guarantee. His exact thinking likely won’t ever be fully known, but the end result is that Betts now appears poised to spend the remainder of an already excellent career in Dodger blue.

Still just 27 years of age, Betts has produced at star-caliber levels since a 52-game MLB debut back in 2014. A career .301/.379/.519 hitter, Betts is already a four-time All-Star, a three-time Silver Slugger winner, a former American League MVP and batting champion, and a four-time Gold Glove winner. He’s clubbed 139 home runs and swiped 126 bases in 794 Major League games, showing off an impressive blend of power and speed, and his 13.5 percent walk rate over the past two seasons is nearly the same as his paltry 14.5 percent strikeout rate. Add in that Betts is regarded as an otherworldly defender — he’s third among all players in Defensive Runs Saved since 2015, regardless of position — and it’s easy to see why Betts is regarded among the game’s elite players.

The Dodgers already boasted at least one of those elite talents: reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Betts and Bellinger will pair to form what could be baseball’s best one-two punch for at least the next four seasons, as Bellinger is controlled through at least the 2023 season. Out-of-nowhere slugger Max Muncy is also inked through the ’23 campaign on a highly reasonable three-year, $26MM pact, so that trio should continue thriving in the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. The hope is that rising young talents like infielder Gavin Lux and catcher Will Smith will add to that long-term core. Looking shorter-term, the Dodgers are stacked with above-average contributors, including Corey Seager (controlled through 2021), Justin Turner (through 2020), Chris Taylor (through 2021) and Enrique Hernandez (through 2020).

From a payroll and luxury-tax standpoint, the Dodgers can afford to both sign Betts and still pursue a megadeal with Bellinger, should they see fit. Betts’ contract comes with a $30.4MM annual luxury hit (or $30.1MM, if they roll it into the current deal), which is sizable but still only represents about a seventh of next year’s $210MM luxury cap. (That number could well rise in 2021 CBA negotiations, too.) Los Angeles already has more than $152MM in luxury commitments on the 2021 books, including this new deal for Betts, but that number plummets to $73MM in 2022. Betts is the only Dodger on a guaranteed deal for the 2023 season (although Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias will all be arbitration-eligible).

With today’s agreement, Betts, Bellinger and Buehler look like the long-term faces of the Dodgers franchise, though the club has boundless young talent, a knack for high-profile trades and as previously noted, plenty of money to spend even with Betts pulling in more than $30MM on an annual basis. The Dodgers have won seven straight NL West titles, and the Betts deal is a strong step toward continuing that trend. That, of course, won’t be enough to satisfy Betts, though. As the star put it during today’s introductory press conference: “I’m here to win some rings.”

WEEI’s Lou Merloni reported earlier today that Betts was closing in on an extension worth more than $300MM. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the agreement and the terms just prior to the team’s announcement (Twitter thread).

Dodgers Finalizing Extension With Mookie Betts

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1:21pm: The new portion of Betts’ contract, once finalized, will guarantee him around 12 years and $350MM on top of this year’s $27MM salary, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

The structuring of the deal is in many ways semantics, but it’s worth noting that in terms of new money, Betts’ extension may not top the new money promised to Trout on his prior long-term deal. Referencing the Betts deal as a 13-year, $380MM contract may skew things such that it appears Betts has set a new record, but by that logic, Trout’s contract should be referred to as a 12-year, $426.5MM deal (i.e. the sum of his preexisting two years and $66.5MM and his 10-year, $360MM extension).

If the deal indeed lands Betts in the $380MM range over 13 years, including his 2020 salary, his contract then boils down to the second-richest ever promised to a big league player (whether looking at total guarantee or new money promised on an extension).

11:54am: Betts will top Trout’s deal if the contract is completed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

It’s expected that the deal will actually cover twelve additional seasons, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The total forward-looking guarantee would top $380MM, Passan adds, including Betts’s salary for the 2020 season. (It’s not clear whether that tally includes Betts’s full $27MM or only the pro-rated portion thereof.)

10:42am: In a stunning development that would mark a massive shift in a moribund player market, the Dodgers appear to be closing in on a long-term extension with recently acquired star Mookie Betts. WEEI.com’s Lou Merloni hears that the sides are nearing agreement even as Betts prepares to don the Dodger blue for the first time tomorrow. Joel Sherman tweets that talks are indeed “quite real.”

If completed, the contract would cover a ten-year term and guarantee Betts somewhere in the neighborhood of $350MM to $400MM, according to the report. It sounds as if it would come in right near, if not over, the ten-year, $360MM Mike Trout pact that currently stands as the largest-ever MLB contract.

The Dodgers paid a significant price in prospects and took on a lot of salary (both for Betts and David Price) in order to secure just one season from the 27-year-old. It always seemed the team had designs on a lengthier relationship, though it wasn’t at all clear that vows would be exchanged before Betts hit the open market.

Until the paperwork is complete, Betts stands as the obvious top talent of the 2020-21 free agent class. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his pre-pandemic power rankings, Betts, who is represented by VC Sports Group, seemed situated to “reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.”

Betts would have represented one of the most interesting-ever free agent cases. Recent market swings and upcoming collective bargaining negotiations provided a fascinating backdrop for the bidding on such a youthful, high-quality player. And then the coronavirus came along, overlaying broad uncertainty onto the situation.

It seems that both the Dodgers and Betts saw a path to limit the risk by striking a bargain now. They’ve certainly had time to get to know one another under trying circumstances over the past several months, even if Betts hasn’t yet recorded any stats for the storied ballclub.

Mookie Betts On Resumption Of Play

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The Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts to chase a 2020 World Series. Before that, Betts spurned extension efforts by the Red Sox, making the 2020 season a critical platform year. There’s a lot at stake for both parties in the pandemic-shaped campaign.

Betts, who is finally back in a Dodgers uniform and nearing a potential regular season debut, discussed the situation with media members including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The 27-year-old outfielder indicated that his focus is on more immediate concerns rather than the past or the future.

Betts spoke about the two overarching issues that have dominated the national discourse since baseball hit pause in March. He indicated that he is focused right now on health and safety matters as camp gets underway. While he expressed some uncertainty as to whether the league can manage a return to play in the midst of the spread of the coronavirus, Betts says it’s a matter that’s ultimately out of his hands.

The superstar had a different take on the social justice issues he also discussed. Betts spoke of a personal responsibility to “bring baseball into Black communities.” He also indicated displeasure with MLB’s handling of the protests that erupted in the wake of George Floyd’s death. “I think baseball did not do a good job of that,” said Betts, “but I think voices were heard and that’s the main thing, that we get our voices heard and to make some changes.”

With Betts focused on gearing up to play in 2020, he says he’s not worried about contractual matters. “Free agency is on the back burner,” he says. While it’s likely MLB teams will be keeping a tighter hold on their wallets this winter, Betts doesn’t seem to be having second thoughts on his decision not to take what the Red Sox offered him in prior contract talks.

“I don’t regret turning that [extension offer] down,” says Betts. “Once I make a decision, I don’t go back and question myself. So I don’t worry about that. The market will be what the market is. We’ll just kind of cross that bridge when we get there.”

While Betts is quite sensibly not thinking about dollars and cents at the moment, it’s hard not to ponder his future here at MLBTR. We’ll see what the truncated 2020 season holds, but it’s quite likely that Betts will reach the open market as the best free agent position player in recent memory. Setting aside intervening financial uncertainties, it would stand to reason that Betts could top Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM pact and Mike Trout’s ten-year, $360MM extension (reached when he was two years from free agency). That’s all the more true given the boosted earnings we saw this past winter, when the Yankees promised $324MM to Gerrit Cole, a pitcher who was a full year older than Betts will be when he hits free agency.

Just how the market shapes up is impossible to say at this point. The near-term financial outlook is sure to depend on what kind of season MLB is able to pull off in the midst of a pandemic.

What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?

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If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019.  That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected.  That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.

A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020.  Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26.  And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.

It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season.  The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.

Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
  • Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
  • Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow.  However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020.  So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them.  My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.

Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value.  And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons.  The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.  Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent).  They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder.  That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder.  The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019.  Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.

Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period.  It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.

Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled?  I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely.  As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.”  Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.

For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:

Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

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We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.

Latest On MLB’s Red Sox Investigation

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Back on February 16, commissioner Rob Manfred said that he hoped the league’s investigation into whether or not the Red Sox improperly used video replay technology to steal opponents’ signs would be concluded in two weeks’ time.  That loose deadline has now passed, and it is still unclear as to when the league will report its findings and issue penalties (if any) to any Red Sox personnel.  According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, a decision from the league isn’t expected to come this week, but “the plan is before the regular season.”

For comparison’s sake, the original Athletic piece from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich about the Astros’ sign-stealing activities was published on November 12, and Major League Baseball announced its disciplinary actions against the Astros almost exactly two months’ later, on January 13.  The Rosenthal/Drellich report about the Red Sox was released on January 7, so assuming a general two-month window for such league investigations, it doesn’t seem outwardly unusual that MLB has yet to make an announcement as we hit March 1.

Circumstances could dictate a longer investigation, however.  Given that the league was so roundly criticized for the perceived lightness of its discipline towards the Astros, it isn’t unexpected that MLB would take a more measured approach in exploring any possible violation the Red Sox may have committed.  (Not that this would necessarily mean a bigger penalty — Sherman writes that the general feeling is that Boston’s “scheme was not as systemic or widespread as that of the Astros, thus, the penalties are not expected to be as severe.”)  Manfred told reporters two weeks ago that the Red Sox investigation involved “there have been a couple of developments…that slowed us down” and required secondary interviews with some involved parties.

Interestingly, the Dodgers may have received some slight insight into the investigation when the club was preparing to acquire Mookie Betts from the Sox.  Los Angeles “asked MLB if it should be concerned about acquiring Betts and were assured not to worry,” Sherman reports.  Red Sox players aren’t subject to possible suspensions as per the outcome of the investigation, since players were given immunity so they could feel free to openly discuss their knowledge of any illegal goings-on inside the clubhouse and video room.

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