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Mookie Betts

AL East Notes: Tillman, Jays, Stroman, Betts

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Free-agent righty Chris Tillman is weighing offers and preparing to make a decision in short order, according to Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles are joined by the Twins and two other organizations in the picture for Tillman’s services, per the report, which also suggests that Tillman is willing to take an incentive-laden contract as he looks to return to form after a miserable 2017 season. With the Minnesota organization also said to be involved on some other hurlers, its ongoing involvement is especially interesting to note — though it’s also fair to wonder whether the team’s reported agreement with another bounceback candidate (Anibal Sanchez) will dampen its interest. We’ve seen real movement on the starting pitching market of late; with Tillman also seemingly nearing a deal, it’ll be interesting to see whether the same holds for some other free agents.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • The Blue Jays are still in the market for pitching after signing Jaime Garcia, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports (Twitter links). With the rotation set, though, the club is now looking at the bullpen, with GM Ross Atkins saying there are still some funds available to work with. Interestingly, per Atkins, the team does not seemingly intend to use Joe Biagini in a relief role. Instead, the provisional plan seems to be for him to work as a starter through camp and remain stretched out when the season opens, even if that means working at Triple-A.
  • Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman may not have enjoyed his arbitration experience, but that doesn’t mean he’s unhappy with the organization. As Nicholson-Smith writes, Stroman expressed today a keen interest in pursuing a long-term deal. Saying he loves everything about playing for Canada’s team, Stroman indicated that he’s “hoping to have talks soon” with the front office. It’s not immediately clear how likely it is that the 26-year-old will find common ground with the organization, but clearly he’s open to the idea. As a 3+ service-class pitcher who turned in a top-quality 2017 effort, Stroman could conceivably look to last winter’s Carlos Martinez contract as a comp.
  • The feeling is a bit different for Red Sox star Mookie Betts. Per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, via Twitter, Betts says he does not intend to discuss a contract between now and the end of the season. There’s no lingering discord over his own arbitration hearing, in which he came away with $3MM more than the team wanted to pay him. Still, Betts says he won’t consider a lengthier deal until 2018 is in the books — though indications are he might be willing to talk at that time. Of course, a big season could leave the 25-year-old with ample leverage. He’s already slated to earn $10.5MM for the coming season, setting him up for massive potential total arbitration earnings.

AL East Notes: Betts, O’Day, Jays, Rays

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While arbitration hearings can often be a contentious process, Red Sox president of baseball operations told reporters that the team’s relationship with Mookie Betts didn’t suffer as a result of this week’s hearing (link via MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey). “I called him and texted him back and forth,” said Dombrowski. “(Assistant general manager) Brian O’Halloran spoke to him. Mookie’s fine, he understands the process so we have a good relationship.” Dombrowski went on to say call Betts a player that the organization “loves” and hopes to keep for “years to come.” Betts was awarded a $10.5MM salary by an arbitration panel — the second-largest salary ever for a first-time arbitration player. (Kris Bryant set the record at $10.85MM last month.)

More from the AL East…

  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com looks at Darren O’Day’s quietly dominant finish to the 2017 season for the Orioles, noting that his excellence over the final two months flew under the radar after injuries had plagued him for much of 2016-17. Indeed, O’Day logged a pristine 1.14 ERA with a 29-to-7 K/BB ratio and just two home runs allowed over his final 23 2/3 innings of the 2017 season, and the sidearmer tells Kubatko he’s healthy headed into 2018. ““Last year was encouraging in a lot of aspects,” said the 35-year-old O’Day. “I think previous seasons I had some issues that just fighting through and there’s times where you doubt yourself, there’s times where you wonder if you’re still good, so last year some of the months were very encouraging for me and I felt like I got back to myself.” O’Day will play a critical role to an Orioles bullpen that will be without closer Zach Britton for much of the season; Britton suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in December and figures to miss at least the first couple months of the season.
  • With the Blue Jays seeking a starting pitcher and likely not having the funds to land a top free agent, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com lists potential options for the club. Given that the Jays have in the neighborhood of $10MM to spend, Chisholm explores Jason Vargas, Chris Tillman, Andrew Cashner and Jaime Garcia as possible fits. Other choices could include Brett Anderson (in whom the Jays do have interest), Jeremy Hellickson, Clay Buchholz and old friend Francisco Liriano.
  • The Rays and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria will have their arbitration hearing Friday in Arizona, and an announcement on his 2018 salary will come Saturday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The slick-fielding, offensively limited Hechavarria is seeking $5.9MM, while the Rays have offered a $5.35MM salary, as MLBTR’s Arb Tracker shows.

Mookie Betts Wins Arbitration Case Over Red Sox

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Mookie Betts has won his arbitration case over the Red Sox and will earn $10.5MM in 2018, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The Sox had countered Betts’ figure with an offer of $7.5MM in Betts’ first year of arbitration eligibility.  The hearing between the two sides took place yesterday, as reported by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Betts is represented by the Legacy Agency.

Betts’ $10.5MM is the second-highest salary ever given to a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility, behind the $10.85MM deal the Cubs reached with Kris Bryant earlier this month to avoid the arb process altogether.  The number considerably surpassed the $8.2MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Betts would earn this winter.  In an Arbitration Breakdown piece, Swartz actually felt that his projection model placed Betts too high, with the caveat that Betts’ blend of power and speed made him a rather difficult player to judge overall.

Needless to say, the arbitration panel’s decision is a huge victory for Betts and a win for players in general given its potential as a long-term precedent.  Ryan Howard’s $10MM stood for years as the record for a first-year arb-eligible player, and now both Bryant and Betts have surpassed that number in a matter of weeks — future superstar-level players could now go into their arbitration years with a solid argument for earning an eight-figure salary.

Betts has been nothing short of outstanding since debuting in 2014, hitting .292/.351/.488 over his 2309 career plate appearances.  With 78 homers, 80 steals (out of 96 chances), and an outstanding right field glove, Betts is one of the game’s best all-around talents.  After finishing second in MVP voting in 2016, Betts’ performance took a minor step back last year (.264/.344/.459) due in part to a thumb injury that bothered him for much of the season.

The $10.5MM now puts Betts in line to receive even more in his remaining two seasons of arbitration eligibility before hitting the free agent market after the 2020 season.  There hasn’t been much talk of an extension between Betts and the Red Sox, with Betts interestingly noting last winter that he would prefer to take a year-to-year approach.  Betts is already making good money from endorsement deals and now has this $10.5MM payday guaranteed, so his stance on a long-term contract might not change, though of course that would depend on what the Sox would be willing to bring to the table to lock up the young star.

As per the MLB Trade Rumors ArbTracker, 24 players still have unsettled contracts that could go to arbitration hearings unless an agreement is reached beforehand.  It seems likely that this offseason will surpass last winter’s total of 15 arbitration hearings, especially given how many teams have adopted a “file-or-trial” policy that precludes any further negotiation after the filing deadline.

AL Notes: Rangers, Ramirez, Betts, Orioles

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Rangers GM Jon Daniels cast doubt on the idea of the team making any marquee additions in comments yesterday to the media, including MLB.com’s TR Sullivan. Daniels called it “unlikely” that the club would end up with a top starter, though he said he also wouldn’t “close the door” on a market that includes former ace Yu Darvish. More likely, it seems, would be a depth addition of some kind, though Daniels also emphasized that the organization is not close to any new deals. Broadly, the organization remains steadfast in its “realistic” assessment of its abilities and needs. While the anticipated roster mix is likely “to create some challenges,” says Daniels, that doesn’t mean it will vary from its strategy entering the winter. The Rangers, he says, were “not going to go all-in, spending big dollars this year, nor were we going to be looking to trade all of our young players.”

More from the American League:

  • The Angels received some promising news on righty J.C. Ramirez, GM Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). Ramirez is continuing to show healing in his right elbow, where he suffered a season-ending partial UCL tear. Stem cell treatment has been promising to this point, giving the team some renewed confidence that it will receive a contribution again from Ramirez, who agreed to a $1.9MM arbitration salary after turning in 147 1/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball in 2017.
  • As the Red Sox prepare for an arbitration show-down with star outfielder Mookie Betts, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald argues the team never should have put itself in this position. The sides have a $3MM gap at present ($10.5MM vs. $7.5MM) and indications are they’ll resolve it in a hearing, meaning the Sox will be put in the position of presenting Betts in a less-than-positive light before an arb panel. With a prior disagreement over his 2017 pre-arb salary, the financial relationship between the sides isn’t exactly off to the most promising start. For what it’s worth, MLBTR contributor and arbitration guru Matt Swartz argued before numbers were exchanged that Betts is likelier to command a first-time arb payday on the lower side of the existing gulf.
  • Speaking of arbitration, the Orioles will evidently not commit to going to trial over their remaining cases, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Rather the club is still willing to engage in negotiations with both infielder Jonathan Schoop ($9MM filing versus $7.5MM counter) and righty Kevin Gausman ($6.225MM filing versus $5.3MM counter). Whether that’ll mean avoiding a hearing isn’t yet known, but the seeming strategic shift will at least leave remaining room for talks on a few players of quite a bit of importance to the organization’s future.

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.

Mookie Betts | Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.

No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.

If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.

To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.

In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Altuve, Yadi, Olson, Red Sox

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Here are the latest health notes from around the game:

  • The Astros dodged a bullet tonight when star second baseman Jose Altuve left the game after being struck on the forearm by a pitch. Thankfully, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets, x-rays came back negative. The diminutive 27-year-old is leading the American League in hits for the fourth consecutive year and in batting average for the third time in four seasons. He’s also pacing qualified batters with a career-best 168 OPS+.
  • Also departing with an injury tonight was Cardinals veteran Yadier Molina. The team announced that he’s undergoing testing as part of the concussion protocol after taking two consecutive foul balls off of his mask. His status for the rest of the regular season remains uncertain, but it could become a bigger issue if St. Louis can claw into Wild Card position.
  • Athletics slugger Matt Olson has been diagnosed with a grade 2 hamstring strain, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He’s very likely to miss the remainder of the season, but it won’t put a damper on an exciting campaign. Olson, 23, has streaked to 24 long balls in 216 trips to the plate, with a robust .259/.352/.651 batting line. He’ll fall shy of a full year of service, too, so the A’s will control Olson for six more campaigns.
  • Things didn’t go quite as hoped for the Red Sox tonight. Lefty Drew Pomeranz was sitting in the high-eighties with his fastball, though he says that was part of a plan to save some gas for the later innings, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Star outfielder Mookie Betts left with a wrist issue, though there’s no reason as yet to think it’s significant. Of the greatest concern, perhaps, infielder Eduardo Nunez tweaked his injured knee. He suggested that he’ll sit out a few more games and try again to return, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets.

AL East Notes: Betts, Otani, Yankees, Mets, Pomeranz

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Mookie Betts left today’s game in the fifth inning due to a bruised right thumb, suffered when his own helmet was knocked off by a Lucas Duda tag attempt and landed on the thumb.  X-rays were negative and Betts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Connor Mount) that he hopes to play as soon as tomorrow.  Betts also added that he has been dealing with nagging thumb problems “for a couple months” but it hasn’t been serious enough to keep him off the field.  While this doesn’t look like a major injury, Betts is such a major part of the Red Sox lineup that his condition bears mention as the team heads towards a likely postseason appearance.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays have put particular effort into scouting Shohei Otani but realistically, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes that Toronto looks unlikely to sign the two-way star.  On the plus side for the Jays, Otani has worked out with former Blue Jay fan favorite Munenori Kawasaki and the team seems willing to let Otani both pitch and hit.  Beyond those positives, however, the Jays’ relative lack of history in the Japanese player market would seem to put them behind others in the running for Otani’s services.
  • Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017.  Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts.  In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race.  With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.
  • The Drew Pomeranz trade is looking like a win for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes.  After the controversial deal with the Padres last year that saw top prospect Anderson Espinosa go to San Diego, Pomeranz was plagued by injury problems that continued into the offseason.  This year, however, Pomeranz has delivered a 3.28 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 159 1/3 innings, emerging as a much-needed stabilizer to a rotation that has been without David Price for much of the season.

Quick Hits: Judge, Betts, Nats, A’s, Pirates, Orioles

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In Aaron Judge, the Yankees have a cornerstone right fielder. In Mookie Betts, the Red Sox have a cornerstone right fielder. The 6-foot-7, 272-pound Judge is radically different than the 5-9, 180-pound Betts, but the two American League All-Stars are among the majors’ premier players. To find out who’s the superior building block, Scott Lauber of ESPN.com polled two AL executives, three NL scouts and an AL scout. Each player ended up receiving three votes. One Judge supporter, an NL scout, said of the 25-year-old: “He has gotten shorter and quicker with his swing, more selective and disciplined. I understand that Dave Winfield has really helped him, as they are similarly tall and great athletes. Winfield talked to him about not striking out as much and thinking about RBIs, not home runs.” Meanwhile, an AL executive who prefers Betts, 24, reasoned:  “Given the track record of Betts and positional value that likely tracks better during the aging curve, I’d lean in his direction slightly. There’s clearly more upside in Judge if he keeps up this pace and retains such elite value for a longer term of control. But if I had to take one tomorrow, I’d take Betts.”

More reading material from around the majors as you contemplate Judge versus Betts:

  • The trade the Nationals and Athletics made on Sunday looks like a win-win, opines ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended). In acquiring Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, the Nationals managed to land a pair of quality relievers who possess excellent control without giving up any of their absolute best prospects. On the other hand, Law writes that the rebuilding A’s cleared salary, got back a capable big league reliever in Blake Treinen and a couple promising young players, both of whom were high selections in the 2016 draft. Nineteen-year-old Jesus Luzardo, the 35th choice, had the upside of a No. 2 starter before undergoing Tommy John surgery a summer ago, per Law, who notes that the right-hander seems to be bouncing back well from the procedure. Infielder Sheldon Neuse, the 58th pick, boasts “an above-average hit tool and excellent instincts on both sides of the ball,” and could have a future in the middle infield (likely second base), at third base or at a combination of those positions.
  • Pittsburgh, which sits seven games back of NL Central-leading Milwaukee, will begin a four-game series with the Brewers on Monday. The outcome of that set could have a major impact on the Pirates’ deadline plans, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged Sunday (via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “Obviously an 0-4 changes the dynamic pretty significantly,” said Huntington. “We go 4-0, it changes the dynamic in a much more positive direction.” While Huntington’s focused on his team’s performance, his own future is murky, as the club still hasn’t exercised his option for 2018. “They’ve expressed interest in having us continue,” he revealed. “I’ve expressed interest in continuing. I’m sure at the appropriate time, we’ll get down to business and put something together.”
  • Major League Baseball’s deadline to sign draft picks this year was July 7, yet the Orioles didn’t ink 26th-rounder Cameron Bishop until Sunday, as Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network reported. While the Orioles submitted the deal (worth $605K) five minutes past the 5 p.m. ET deadline on the 7th, Bishop actually agreed to it on the 5th and passed a physical on the 6th, relays Rosenthal. With that in mind, the league determined that it would be unfair to punish the left-hander because of a delay by the O’s, so it signed off on the pact.

Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland

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The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract.  Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…

  • There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians.  One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
  • The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams.  Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell’s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese’s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
  • The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised.  The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money.  Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes.  The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi.  The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
  • The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips.  Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
  • Speaking of the Braves’ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent.  In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April.  For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
  • A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017.  Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010.  A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
  • Greg Holland’s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason.  Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
  • One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season.  Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge’s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper.  Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.
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