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Mookie Betts

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.

Mookie Betts | Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.

No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.

If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.

To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.

In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Altuve, Yadi, Olson, Red Sox

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Here are the latest health notes from around the game:

  • The Astros dodged a bullet tonight when star second baseman Jose Altuve left the game after being struck on the forearm by a pitch. Thankfully, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets, x-rays came back negative. The diminutive 27-year-old is leading the American League in hits for the fourth consecutive year and in batting average for the third time in four seasons. He’s also pacing qualified batters with a career-best 168 OPS+.
  • Also departing with an injury tonight was Cardinals veteran Yadier Molina. The team announced that he’s undergoing testing as part of the concussion protocol after taking two consecutive foul balls off of his mask. His status for the rest of the regular season remains uncertain, but it could become a bigger issue if St. Louis can claw into Wild Card position.
  • Athletics slugger Matt Olson has been diagnosed with a grade 2 hamstring strain, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He’s very likely to miss the remainder of the season, but it won’t put a damper on an exciting campaign. Olson, 23, has streaked to 24 long balls in 216 trips to the plate, with a robust .259/.352/.651 batting line. He’ll fall shy of a full year of service, too, so the A’s will control Olson for six more campaigns.
  • Things didn’t go quite as hoped for the Red Sox tonight. Lefty Drew Pomeranz was sitting in the high-eighties with his fastball, though he says that was part of a plan to save some gas for the later innings, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Star outfielder Mookie Betts left with a wrist issue, though there’s no reason as yet to think it’s significant. Of the greatest concern, perhaps, infielder Eduardo Nunez tweaked his injured knee. He suggested that he’ll sit out a few more games and try again to return, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets.

AL East Notes: Betts, Otani, Yankees, Mets, Pomeranz

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Mookie Betts left today’s game in the fifth inning due to a bruised right thumb, suffered when his own helmet was knocked off by a Lucas Duda tag attempt and landed on the thumb.  X-rays were negative and Betts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Connor Mount) that he hopes to play as soon as tomorrow.  Betts also added that he has been dealing with nagging thumb problems “for a couple months” but it hasn’t been serious enough to keep him off the field.  While this doesn’t look like a major injury, Betts is such a major part of the Red Sox lineup that his condition bears mention as the team heads towards a likely postseason appearance.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays have put particular effort into scouting Shohei Otani but realistically, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes that Toronto looks unlikely to sign the two-way star.  On the plus side for the Jays, Otani has worked out with former Blue Jay fan favorite Munenori Kawasaki and the team seems willing to let Otani both pitch and hit.  Beyond those positives, however, the Jays’ relative lack of history in the Japanese player market would seem to put them behind others in the running for Otani’s services.
  • Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017.  Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts.  In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race.  With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.
  • The Drew Pomeranz trade is looking like a win for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes.  After the controversial deal with the Padres last year that saw top prospect Anderson Espinosa go to San Diego, Pomeranz was plagued by injury problems that continued into the offseason.  This year, however, Pomeranz has delivered a 3.28 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 159 1/3 innings, emerging as a much-needed stabilizer to a rotation that has been without David Price for much of the season.

Quick Hits: Judge, Betts, Nats, A’s, Pirates, Orioles

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In Aaron Judge, the Yankees have a cornerstone right fielder. In Mookie Betts, the Red Sox have a cornerstone right fielder. The 6-foot-7, 272-pound Judge is radically different than the 5-9, 180-pound Betts, but the two American League All-Stars are among the majors’ premier players. To find out who’s the superior building block, Scott Lauber of ESPN.com polled two AL executives, three NL scouts and an AL scout. Each player ended up receiving three votes. One Judge supporter, an NL scout, said of the 25-year-old: “He has gotten shorter and quicker with his swing, more selective and disciplined. I understand that Dave Winfield has really helped him, as they are similarly tall and great athletes. Winfield talked to him about not striking out as much and thinking about RBIs, not home runs.” Meanwhile, an AL executive who prefers Betts, 24, reasoned:  “Given the track record of Betts and positional value that likely tracks better during the aging curve, I’d lean in his direction slightly. There’s clearly more upside in Judge if he keeps up this pace and retains such elite value for a longer term of control. But if I had to take one tomorrow, I’d take Betts.”

More reading material from around the majors as you contemplate Judge versus Betts:

  • The trade the Nationals and Athletics made on Sunday looks like a win-win, opines ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended). In acquiring Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, the Nationals managed to land a pair of quality relievers who possess excellent control without giving up any of their absolute best prospects. On the other hand, Law writes that the rebuilding A’s cleared salary, got back a capable big league reliever in Blake Treinen and a couple promising young players, both of whom were high selections in the 2016 draft. Nineteen-year-old Jesus Luzardo, the 35th choice, had the upside of a No. 2 starter before undergoing Tommy John surgery a summer ago, per Law, who notes that the right-hander seems to be bouncing back well from the procedure. Infielder Sheldon Neuse, the 58th pick, boasts “an above-average hit tool and excellent instincts on both sides of the ball,” and could have a future in the middle infield (likely second base), at third base or at a combination of those positions.
  • Pittsburgh, which sits seven games back of NL Central-leading Milwaukee, will begin a four-game series with the Brewers on Monday. The outcome of that set could have a major impact on the Pirates’ deadline plans, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged Sunday (via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “Obviously an 0-4 changes the dynamic pretty significantly,” said Huntington. “We go 4-0, it changes the dynamic in a much more positive direction.” While Huntington’s focused on his team’s performance, his own future is murky, as the club still hasn’t exercised his option for 2018. “They’ve expressed interest in having us continue,” he revealed. “I’ve expressed interest in continuing. I’m sure at the appropriate time, we’ll get down to business and put something together.”
  • Major League Baseball’s deadline to sign draft picks this year was July 7, yet the Orioles didn’t ink 26th-rounder Cameron Bishop until Sunday, as Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network reported. While the Orioles submitted the deal (worth $605K) five minutes past the 5 p.m. ET deadline on the 7th, Bishop actually agreed to it on the 5th and passed a physical on the 6th, relays Rosenthal. With that in mind, the league determined that it would be unfair to punish the left-hander because of a delay by the O’s, so it signed off on the pact.

Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland

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The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract.  Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…

  • There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians.  One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
  • The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams.  Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell’s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese’s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
  • The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised.  The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money.  Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes.  The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi.  The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
  • The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips.  Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
  • Speaking of the Braves’ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent.  In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April.  For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
  • A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017.  Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010.  A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
  • Greg Holland’s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason.  Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
  • One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season.  Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge’s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper.  Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.

East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Osuna, Marlins

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With the likes of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi all controlled for at least another three seasons, the Red Sox are positioned to have an excellent core of young position players for the next several years. Team president Sam Kennedy spoke recently on the CSNNE Baseball podcast about his club’s desire to keep that core intact, and CSN’s Evan Drellich provides a number of highlights from that talk. Kennedy stated that extensions for that collection of young players is “something that we talk about a lot,” though he neglected to elaborate on any specifics. Kennedy further explained the various voices that weigh in on such matters, noting that CFO Tim Zue plays an integral part in evaluating the long-term financial ramifications for the team. Kennedy called Zue the Red Sox’ “Godfather of business analytics,” and Drellich adds that Zue works closely with the Red Sox’ baseball analytics head, Zack Scott, with regularity.

More from the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs that he and Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein agreed to the framework of last summer’s Aroldis Chapman trade about three days before the trade actually went through. According to Cashman, he had to wait 72 hours for ownership approval from Hal Steinbrenner as he mulled the situation over with his family and other key Yankees staffers. Cashman reveals to Sawchik that this past summer was not the first time he’s strongly recommended employing a rebuilding approach — within the column he suggests that the Yankees should have traded Robinson Cano before he hit free agency — but the 2016 campaign marked the first time in which ownership conceded. Cashman adds that he doesn’t fault Steinbrenner for not green-lighting past rebuilding efforts, telling Sawchik: “[Steinbrenner] says, ‘Cash, you’re the director of baseball operations, you get to look at things at 5,000 feet. But as a pilot, I’m in charge of network ratings, ticket sales, advertising commitments to our sponsors, a whole host of things.’ So he had to look at things at 30,000 feet. Sometimes those decisions don’t match up with what I’d recommend, and I understand and respect that. Being an owner is not easy.” The entire interview is well worth a full read for Yankee fans or any readers that are interested in the baseball operations/ownership dynamic.
  • The Blue Jays aren’t expecting Roberto Osuna’s stay on the disabled list to be lengthy in nature, tweets MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm. Per general manager Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays don’t think Osuna will require more than the minimum 10-day stay that is provided by the new disabled list this season. That’s excellent news for a Jays team that, on paper, carries plenty of question marks surrounding its relief corps. In Osuna’s absence, veteran Jason Grilli and sophomore reliever Joe Biagini will handle whatever save opportunities arise.
  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that veteran outfielders Brandon Barnes and Matt den Dekker did not exercise the opt-out provisions in their minor league deals with the Marlins at the end of Spring Training (Twitter link). As such, both figure to head to Triple-A New Orleans, where they’ll serve as depth options that could surface in the Majors should the Fish incur an injury or look to add some versatility to the bench down the line. Barnes, a career .242/.289/.356 hitter, posted just a .426 OPS in Spring Training but was solid in Triple-A last season. Meanwhile, den Dekker hit .281/.306/.596 in Spring Training and is a lifetime .236/.318/.359 hitter in the bigs. Both can play all three outfield positions.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Betts, Leon, Donaldson, Boxberger, Beckham

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In an interesting look inside the Red Sox front office, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports on the team’s analytical upgrade efforts. While the organization has long been associated with number-crunching and information hoarding, it has only recently ramped up its full-time staff to launch a new database effort and keep pace with other clubs. It’s an interesting look at the process behind and purposes of the team’s next steps in analytics.

Here’s more from Boston and the rest of the AL East:

  • In a look at Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe delves into the role of off-field earning opportunities in determining the contractual path of Betts and other young stars. “[Getting endorsements] kind of eliminates things I’ve wondered as far as contracts go and the business part of the game,” says Betts. “[But] everything I can ever desire is going to start from me taking care of business on the field.” Whether that precludes a long-term deal — or, at least, drives up the potential price — remains to be seen.
  • Sandy Leon seems on track to open the season with the lion’s share of the time behind the dish for the Red Sox, skipper John Farrell told reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). But the manager made clear that he doesn’t intend to rely too heavily on any one man at the catching position, suggesting it’ll be a fairly evenly shared platoon situation between Leon and Christian Vasquez — at least to start the season.
  • Star Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson took the field in Grapefruit League action for the first time yesterday, as MLB.com’s Paul Hagen writes. All indications were that his calf issue didn’t hold him back, so it seems that Toronto can still look forward to Donaldson’s presence on the Opening Day roster.
  • Rays righty Brad Boxberger isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but does hope to be contributing in the majors during the month of April, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. His lat issue will still require at least a week-long layoff before he beings a new throwing program.
  • The career of former top Rays prospect Tim Beckham has continued its roller-coaster path, Topkin writes. After a rough end to 2016, Beckham now seems ascendant yet again, with a strong showing in spring and unexpected opportunity at shortstop with Matt Duffy still on ice. Beckham is drawing rave reviews from manager Kevin Cash and veteran players for his commitment and performance, perhaps suggesting there’s still some hope the 27-year-old can turn the corner at the game’s highest level.

Red Sox Renew Mookie Betts For $950K

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The Red Sox have renewed outfielder Mookie Betts’ contract at a healthy $950K price, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). Betts, 24, has established himself as one of the game’s best players and is fresh off of an outstanding 2016 season in which he slashed .318/.363/.534 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases.

On the heels of that effort, Betts will take home the second-highest amount ever given to a 2+ service-class player who wasn’t eligible for arbitration, falling shy only of Mike Trout’s 2014 payday of $1MM. Nevertheless, the Red Sox weren’t able to get him to sign his name to the agreement. The club had the right to renew him at whatever amount it preferred, so long as it met or exceeded the league minimum salary, so it’s not as if he had much leverage. But it’s still somewhat notable that Betts was the organization’s only player to make the symbolic gesture of forcing the club to renew him.

That being said, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he did not sense any bad feelings between the sides during negotiations, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports (Twitter links). Certainly, the club could have taken a harsher stance in setting the final number, but obviously had no interest in making a point at the expense of its relationship with a key player. As things turned out, says Betts, there’s no animosity on his part. (Via Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, on Twitter.)

It would not be surprising to see the sides back at the bargaining table sooner rather than later. If nothing else, there’ll be a hefty arbitration salary to negotiate next winter, but it’s also possible to imagine that the sides will explore a longer-term deal. While Boston enjoys three years of control over Betts beyond the upcoming season, the team’s leverage will wane as he gets closer to free agency and increases his earnings through the arb process.

AL East Notes: Betances, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Betts

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The Yankees will go to an arbitration hearing with right-hander Dellin Betances, general manager Brian Cashman tells MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter link). Betances filed for a $5MM salary in arbitration, while the Yankees countered at $3MM, so there’s a sizable gap between the two sides. In addition to the immediate $2MM that’s at stake, a $5MM salary in 2017 would give Betances a considerably larger platform for future salaries in the arbitration process. Betances is one of 23 unresolved arbitration cases left in baseball — all of which can be monitored using MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker.

A bit more from the American League East…

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link), following his team’s re-signing of Jose Bautista to a one-year, $18.5MM deal (with a 2018 mutual option and a 2019 vesting option). Atkins acknowledged that the Jays have “clear” needs in the bullpen and at backup catcher. That suggests that the Jays won’t simply stick with in-house options at either position, and the Toronto GM noted that both the trade market and free-agent market are under current consideration to fill those needs. A number of backup catching options have come off the board recently, though names like Kurt Suzuki, Hank Conger, Brayan Pena and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are all still out there.
  • Red Sox skipper John Farrell met with the Boston media today and addressed a number of roster issues, including the team’s outlook at third base and in the rotation (Twitter links via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal). Per Farrell, there’s still a “note of competition” at the hot corner between Pablo Sandoval, Brock Holt and Rule 5 pick Josh Rutledge. Sandoval’s contract, presumably, makes him the favorite, but I’d wager that he’ll be on a short leash and will have to show semblance of rebound potential in Spring Training and/or early in the year. Also, it sounds as if only Chris Sale, David Price an Rick Porcello are assured rotation spots, as Farrell said the final two spots will be a competition between Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • MacPherson’s colleague, Tim Britton, adds that Farrell also discussed the Red Sox’ catching situation (all Twitter links). Farrell said that as it stands, Sandy Leon is heading to camp as the No. 1 catcher, but Blake Swihart will be able to challenge him for that role. Britton notes that Farrell didn’t mention Christian Vazquez. However, Vazquez is out of minor league options, and the team isn’t sure how Swihart’s ankle will be able to hold up for regular work behind the dish, so Britton’s interpretation of the situation is that Leon and Vazquez will open the year as Boston’s catching tandem.
  • Looking at the bigger picture for the Red Sox, the team has yet to sit down with star outfielder Mookie Betts about an extension, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The 24-year-old said there haven’t been talks, and hinted that he’s not particularly interested in pursuing a long-term arrangement. Betts said that his preference is to focus on his play while going “one year at a time” for his salaries. Meanwhile, shortstop Xander Bogaerts largely demurred when asked whether he had engaged in any long-term contract talks.
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