Mookie Betts

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mookie Betts Does Not Expect To Reach Extension With Red Sox

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 9:49am CDT

In the midst of a run of extensions around the game — in particular, yesterday’s $360MM Mike Trout agreement — Red Sox star Mookie Betts faced another round of questions about his future in Boston from reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (links to Twitter). While he again expressed that he’s fond of the organization, Betts left little doubt that he’s not moving off of his price point for his post-arbitration years.

Betts acknowledged having received prior offers from the Red Sox. To this point, they simply haven’t met his understandably lofty self-valuation. It was reported yesterday that the team dangled $200MM in advance of the 2018 season. That was a hefty offer under the circumstances, but Betts has little cause to regret turning it down. He went on to turn in a hugely productive season and take home American League MVP honors, setting himself up for a record-setting run through arbitration and untold riches thereafter.

When asked whether he expects to open the present season without a long-term deal, Betts responded:

“That’s exactly what I expect. Didn’t expect anything to happen until I’m a free agent.”

It certainly doesn’t sound as if there’s much cause for optimism for a deal to come together before Betts hits the open market after the 2020 season. While nothing can be ruled out, as the 26-year-old hasn’t indicated that he’s altogether opposed to listening to offers, he’ll evidently demand that the Red Sox put quite a bit more money on the table than they have to this point.

Betts offered another hint about his own views on his value and how he intends to pursue a contract that matches it. While he called some of the recent extensions “great deals” for the players involved, he also noted that “some of them could’ve gotten more.”

Details On Prior Red Sox Attempts At Extending Mookie Betts

By Jeff Todd | March 19, 2019 at 3:05pm CDT

As part of the day’s chatter surrounding Mike Trout’s new deal with the Angels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post took a look back at some of the Red Sox’ attempts to hammer out a contract with their own star outfielder. Mookie Betts has rebuffed several prior efforts from the Boston organization, it seems.

In particular, per Sherman, Betts said no to an eye-popping offer after the 2017 campaign. The proposal was worth $200MM over eight years for Betts, who was then heading into his first season of arbitration eligibility on the heels of a good but not great season. Assuming that there was fully $200MM in guaranteed money involved, that would have easily set a new high-water mark for a first-time arb-eligible player, topping Buster Posey’s $159MM contract (as a Super Two) and Freddie Freeman’s $135MM deal (3+ service class).

Betts instead preferred to take the arbitration route, defeating the club in a hearing and earning a $10.5MM salary as a first-year arb player. After putting up a monster 2018 season and taking home MVP honors, he agreed to a cool $20MM salary for 2019 — his second (and second-to-last) season of arb eligibility.

With over $30MM in career earnings already in his pocket, and Trout no longer looming as a co-star in the 2020-21 free agent market, the 26-year-old Betts could ultimately command a record-setting deal of his own. One wonders whether the Sox would have to beat the Trout deal (ten years, $360MM in new money) to keep Betts from testing free agency — if he’s willing even to consider new offers before hitting the open market.

AL Notes: Harper, Betts, Severino, Baldelli, Harvey, Kennedy

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | February 15, 2019 at 12:26am CDT

It’s mostly of historical interest now, but Astros GM Jeff Luhnow acknowledged that the club had a deal all but locked down to land Bryce Harper last summer. (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26, on Twitter.) Reports indicated that the Nationals would have received a strong haul of talent had they agreed to give up Harper at the non-waiver deadline; instead, the club announced on deadline day that it would not part with its star, who is now (still) a free agent. Lest anyone get the wrong idea, the Houston organization’s prior interest certainly doesn’t indicate that Harper is of interest presently. There has been no such connection this winter. Luhnow did suggest, though, that the pursuit is evidence of the team’s commitment to “look at all alternatives” and possibly swing major deals at the trade deadline.

Those who enjoy concocting wild trade scenarios will also take note of Luhnow’s intriguing aside: “I think fans would be surprised at the types of players at times that we’ve gone after and how close we’ve come on some of them.” Here’s more from the American League:

Star Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts discussed his approach to handling the business side of the sport, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Betts says he believes in staying patient. “When you start rushing into things, that’s when you get some deals that may not be the right ones,” he said. Of course, Betts has to this point set himself up for a potentially record-setting run through arbitration by not only going year-to-year, but by also increasing his performance level in successive seasons. He just settled for a whopping $20MM, setting a record for a second-time arb-eligible player. Whether he’ll consider a long-term deal in the future isn’t clear; Betts would allow only that he enjoys playing in Boston and would “have to see how it goes.”
In other AL East contractual matters, the Yankees’ reported chatter about a long-term deal with staff ace Luis Severino does not seem to be gaining traction, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems that the sides will instead focus on preparing for an upcoming arbitration hearing, though that can always change at the last minute — whether due to agreement on a single-season salary or something more significant. If the case goes to a panel, the arbitrators will need to decide between Severino’s proposed $5.25MM payout and the club’s $4.4MM counter. There’s added significance given that the Super Two qualifier still has three more potential arb years to come, making his starting salary quite important.
While terms of his contract weren’t announced or reported at the time, Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli inked a four-year contract when being hired for his managerial debut, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription required). The deal also has multiple club options. It’s a show of faith in the rookie manager and a departure from the manner in which Minnesota has previously operated, as Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus notes (Twitter link). Under previous management, the Twins typically only issued two-year pacts to skipper Ron Gardenhire, who was one of the game’s longest-tenured managers when he was dismissed from the organization. And Paul Molitor, whom the the Twins ousted to make way for Baldelli, was one season into a three-year contract when the Twins ultimately changed course.
Angels right-hander Matt Harvey will be out for the next week to 10 days due to a strained glute muscle, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. It’s a minor injury and one that isn’t expected to hinder Harvey’s readiness for Opening Day, but it nonetheless bears some monitoring as Harvey looks to rebuild stock in Anaheim on a one-year, $11MM contract. The injury is all the more notable given the Halos’ rash of pitching maladies in recent seasons. The team is already expecting to be without right-hander Nick Tropeano to open the season.
The Royals are considering utilizing veteran starter Ian Kennedy as a bullpen piece this season, and the righty spoke with Rustin Dodd of The Athletic about the potential role change (subscription required). Kennedy took a team-first attitude and said he’s willing to pitch for the Royals in any role, so long as it helps the team win more games. Looking elsewhere on the roster, Dodd writes that Danny Duffy, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis are likely locks for the rotation, while non-roster invitee Homer Bailey will compete for a starter job but likely not a bullpen role (per Yost). The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy also addressed the situation, speaking with newly signed Brad Boxberger about pitching roles. While Boxberger would “love” the opportunity to close, it doesn’t seem as though any such promises were made to him. Ultimately, Yost declined to discuss specific roles and stressed the importance of having multiple options who can be trusted to close out games and thrive in high-leverage spots.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

By George Miller | January 11, 2019 at 4:05pm CDT

4:05pm: The Boston org has wrapped up deals with all of its dozen arb-eligible players, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). We’ve covered several other players elsewhere. Notably, shortstop Xander Bogaerts ($12MM) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM) have agreed to big salaries.

11:20am: The Red Sox and American League MVP Mookie Betts have settled on a one-year deal worth $20MM, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The salary figure is a record for a player in his second year of arbitration eligibility. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Betts could earn an additional $400K via awards (Twitter link). Betts, who will remain under team control through 2020, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $18.7MM.

Fresh off a historic 2018 campaign in which he slashed an otherworldly .346/.438/.640 en route to a World Series title, Betts earned himself a $9.5MM raise from his previous salary. His record-setting deal will establish the new standard for players with four-plus years of MLB service time. In fact, notes Jeff Passan of ESPN, Betts’s new contract has been exceeded only by players in their fourth year of arbitration by virtue of the Super Two rule.

Furthermore, this development could be notable for the Red Sox in that the team failed to reach an agreement with their superstar outfielder last winter, leading to an arbitration hearing to determine his salary. It is possible that this settlement could signify an increased willingness to discuss a potential contract extension, for which it appears talks have yet to substantially progress, in the future. However, should the two sides fail to agree to a multi-year extension next offseason–Betts’s last arbitration-eligible season before reaching free agency–the three-time All-Star could command an astronomical salary in his final year of team control; at the very least, Betts appears poised to eclipse–if not shatter–the $23MM record set by Josh Donaldson one year ago, which currently marks the highest one-year arbitration salary ever.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

By Matt Swartz | November 28, 2018 at 12:49pm CDT

Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

After the first year of arbitration, it is typical for arbitration salaries to be rewarded as raises on top of previous year’s salaries, based on platform year performances. That sets Mookie Betts up for quite a hefty salary in 2019, since he nearly had a record high $10.5 million salary last year and had quite an accomplished 2018 campaign.

Mookie Betts won the MVP Award with a .346 average and 32 home runs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, he only had 80 RBI, but entering arbitration with the MVP Award, my model projects him to get an $8.2 million raise and earn $18.7 million. That would easily set a record for second time eligible salaries (Ryan Howard got $15 million way back in 2009), but would fall short of the record raise for second time eligible players. Bryce Harper set the latter mark in 2017 with $8.63 million riase. Harper’s case was atypical, though, because it came following a two-year deal. Other than that, Betts is projected for the largest raise ever—which does make sense following an MVP season.

In the last decade, only two players have entered their second year of arbitration coming off an MVP season—Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Josh Hamilton way back in 2011. Not only is Hamilton a stale comp at this point, but both received multi-year deals that might make them less likely to be used as comparables. While Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise would therefore not typically be a useful comparable, both he and the Blue Jays filed numbers in a tight band ($7.05 million and $7.5 million) that were also quite close to the actual result. Given that the comp is a few years out of date, it seems reasonable for Betts to argue that the Donaldson salary point represents a clear floor. Since Donaldson hit .297 with 41 HR and 123 RBI, his performance was more power-centric. But it certainly suggests roughly an $8 million raise for a reigning MVP is close to the right price.

Betts also won the batting title, which also calls back to Charlie Blackmon and Dee Gordon in recent years. The latter had only four home runs in 2015, so he is a weak comparable. Blackmon is a little stronger since his 2016 numbers — .324/29/82 — delivered some of the punch that Betts did at .346/32/80. That earned him a $3.8 million raise, which was actually well shy of what the model predicted. If there’s any added boost for the batting title, then, it’s tough to gauge.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox can certainly try to point to the Blackmon comp if they want to hold Betts’ salary down, but the Donaldson raise seems like a more compelling precedent since he won the MVP Award. And it probably does not hurt Betts’s negotiating position that he scored a major win over the Sox last year in a hearing. All things considered, I suspect Betts will get a record raise and earn quite close to his 2019 projection.

Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts Win MVP Awards

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2018 at 5:50pm CDT

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced tonight that Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was voted the Most Valuable Player of the National League. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Mookie Betts took the prize in the American League.

Yelich nearly pulled off a unanimous win after helping lead the Brew Crew to a stirring NL Central title. Only one first-place vote went to another player, as Mets hurler Jacob deGrom was not-unjustly rewarded for an exceptional season that already netted him a Cy Young Award.

Clearly, though, Yelich stood above the rest of the position-player field. It surely helped his case that he led a resurgent Brewers club, but the 26-year-old turned in a stellar first year in Milwaukee quite apart from what his teammates did around him. In 651 plate appearances, he turned in a .326/.402/.598 batting line with 36 home runs and 22 steals.

That eye-popping offensive output, combined with solid glovework and excellent overall baserunning, left Yelich with a hefty tally of 7.6 WAR (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). Cubs infielder Javier Baez placed second, with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado finishing in bronze-medal position.

As for Betts, his season was even more compelling, allowing him to stand out even against a field of excellent contenders in the American League. He finished the season with a ridiculous .346/.438/.640 slash while qualifying for the 30/30 club. Plus, he’s widely considered one of the best defenders and baserunners in the game.

It’s a credit to Betts that he was able to top yet another MVP-worthy performance from the incomparable Mike Trout, whose perennial excellence is not diminished by the fact that a rotating cast of others has occasionally matched or bettered him. Indians infielder Jose Ramirez turned in a second consecutive third-place finish.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, JDM, Wright, Kimbrel

By Connor Byrne | October 21, 2018 at 2:42pm CDT

The latest on the American League champions:

When the Red Sox go on the road to face the Dodgers in the World Series, they could feature an interesting defensive alignment. Speaking with reporters (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) on Saturday, Cora revealed that the Red Sox are considering deploying right fielder Mookie Betts at second base in Los Angeles, where they won’t have the luxury of using a designated hitter. In doing so, the Red Sox would keep DH/outfielder J.D. Martinez’s elite bat in the lineup. No matter what, Martinez is going to play, though the team’s not giving any thought to putting him at first base, Mastrodonato reports. Martinez has next to no experience at first, whereas Betts played plenty of second base as a prospect and most recently lined up at the keystone 14 times as a major league rookie in 2014.
Left knee issues have shelved Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright since Sept. 29, but the knuckleballer hasn’t ruled out a World Series return, per Mastrodonato. Although the Red Sox had to remove him from their ALDS roster when the playoffs began two weeks ago, Wright has been throwing since then, and he issued a fairly encouraging update Saturday. “My arm and body feels really good, just a matter of can my knee withstand the pressure of throwing off a mound consistently?” Wright said. He’ll “go through a few tests” before the Red Sox decide whether to include him on their World Series roster, according to Cora. Wright threw a short simulated game Sunday to help determine the status of his knee, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The 34-year-old was an asset out of the Red Sox’s bullpen during the regular season, when he notched a 1.52 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .191/.303/.314 line.
It hasn’t been a banner postseason for all-world Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, who has allowed at least one earned run in four of five appearances. However, Kimbrel may have begun a turnaround in his most recent outing Thursday, when he threw a scoreless, hitless frame with two strikeouts and a walk to close out the Astros in the ALCS. Kimbrel revealed afterward that he had been tipping his pitches – something former closer Eric Gagne first noticed while watching from home, Ben Harris of The Athletic writes (subscription required). “There’s quite a few people, but actually Eric Gagne texted me last night,” Kimbrel said. “He’s good friends with AC (Alex Cora), and he texted me and gave me some advice.” As part of an interesting piece that’s worth checking out, Harris goes on to break down what Kimbrel was doing wrong and how he fixed it.

AL Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Betts, Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2018 at 3:39pm CDT

The Astros called up top outfield prospect Kyle Tucker from Triple-A today, and that could very well mark the team’s final September promotion, manager A.J. Hinch tells reporters (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Hinch added that Tucker probably won’t play much in the season’s final weeks, though with Tucker having already debuted earlier this summer and his season in Triple-A Fresno over, there’s little reason not to bring Tucker back up. The 21-year-old former No. 5 overall pick hit just .154/.254/.212 in 59 plate appearances with the ’Stros earlier this year, but he decimated Triple-A pitching at a .332/.400/.590 pace, swatting 24 homers and swiping 20 steals along the way.

Red Sox Place Ian Kinsler on DL, Pedroia To 60-Day DL

By Kyle Downing | August 4, 2018 at 1:16pm CDT

The Red Sox have officially placed the recently-acquired Ian Kinsler on the disabled list and moved fellow second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day DL. Infielder Tony Renda has been added to the MLB roster to take Kinsler’s place.

Kinsler, of course, recently came to Boston by way of a July 30th transaction that sent a pair of minor leaguers to the Angels. The Red Sox also received about $1.83MM in the swap. The 36-year-old had already amassed four hits in just 11 plate appearances with the Red Sox and has enjoyed a strong season to date, accruing 2.1 fWAR across the 2018 season in part due to typically stellar defense.

It remains to be seen how the Sox plan to proceed in Kinsler’s absence. The “tight hamstring” probably won’t shelve the veteran for too long, but it’s not as though Boston has a host of capable keystone defenders. Following the removal of Kinsler from last night’s matchup, MVP candidate Mookie Betts shifted from the outfield to second base (his natural position, though one he hasn’t played since 2014).

As for Pedroia, it would appear that recent concerns were not without cause. Following offseason knee surgery, the veteran (and one of the long-time faces of the Red Sox franchise) hasn’t been able to make a clean comeback to the field. Of course, it’s worth mentioning that Pedroia has already been back on the disabled list for over 60 days, so this transfer won’t in and of itself affect his timetable to return to the field. Still, there’s been no word of any change to his status.

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